中国经济网北京1月9日讯 三大指数早盘集体上涨，截至午间收盘，上证指数报4095.33点，涨幅0.30%；深证成指报14038.46点，涨幅0.57%；创业板指 报3305.48点，涨幅0.10%。 板块方面，小金属、贵金属、文化传媒等涨幅居前，厨卫电器、机场航运、化学纤维等跌幅居前。 A股市场板块涨跌幅排行 | 序号 | 板块 | 涨跌幅(%)▼ | | 总成交量 (万手) ▼ 总成交额 (亿元) ▼ | 浄流入（亿元） ▼ | 上涨家数 | 下跌2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 小金属 | 3.90 | 1053.31 | 368.62 | 23.66 | 24 | ന | | 2 | 篇类属 | 2.97 | 459.09 | 91.77 | 16.76 | 11 | o | | ന | 文化传媒 | 2.50 | 4018.40 | 518.70 | 25.62 | 74 | 1 C | | ব | 幸工装备 | 2.09 | 3961.55 | 1279.95 | 24.56 | રેર | 26 | | 5 | ...

Group 1 - International crude oil prices saw a significant increase, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closing at $58.25 per ton, up 3.48%, and Brent crude at $62.68 per ton, up 3.93% [1] - Precious metal prices continued to decline, with gold priced at $4478.4 per ounce, up 0.49%, while silver dropped to $76.35 per ounce, down 2.35% [3] - Base metals experienced notable declines, with nickel falling to $17,065 per ton, down 3.31%, and tin at $43,435 per ton, down 2.04% [3] Group 2 - Uranium (U3O8) prices increased slightly to $81.95 per pound, up 0.18% [2] - Iron ore prices showed mixed results, with 62% grade iron ore at $107.95 per ton, down 0.92%, while 58% grade iron ore remained stable around $95 per ton [3] - Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) decreased to $12,687.20 per ton, down 1.38%, while aluminum rose slightly to $3,087.50 per ton, up 0.16% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) will undergo annual rebalancing, significantly reducing the weight of gold from 20.4% to 14.9% and silver from 9.6% to 3.94%, leading to substantial selling pressure on silver [1][2]. Group 1: Rebalancing Details - The rebalancing period will start after market close on January 8 and continue until January 14, with execution from January 9 to 15 [1]. - The BCOM index weights are calculated based on two-thirds trading volume and one-third global production, with a maximum weight limit of 15% for any single commodity to maintain diversification [1]. Group 2: Market Impact - Deutsche Bank and TD Securities estimate that $7.7 billion in silver sell orders will flood the market over the next two weeks, equating to 13% of the total open interest in the COMEX silver market, potentially causing significant price corrections [2][3]. - Silver is expected to experience the highest selling pressure during the rebalancing, followed by aluminum and gold, while WTI crude oil, natural gas, and low-sulfur diesel will see increased buying demand [4][5]. Group 3: Analyst Perspectives - Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Hsueh noted that the rebalancing is unfavorable for precious metals but beneficial for crude oil [3][4]. - TD Securities analyst Daniel Ghali highlighted that the trading volume of the largest silver ETF has reached extreme levels, indicating speculative fervor among retail investors, which may lead to a significant revaluation of silver prices [9]. - Goldman Sachs analyst Lina Thomas emphasized that liquidity in the London market is crucial for determining silver price trends, predicting continued extreme price volatility as long as inventory tightness persists [10][11].

Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4429.35, with a change of -8.65 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 75.21, with a change of -3.78 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 2298.00, with a change of -64.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1711.00, with a change of -62.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 57.76, with a change of 1.77 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 12820.00, with a change of -300.50 [1] - The latest value of the US Dollar Index is 98.86, with a change of 0.12 [1] - The latest exchange - rate of Euro against US Dollar is 1.17, with a change of -0.00 [1] - The latest exchange - rate of British Pound against US Dollar is 1.34, with a change of -0.00 [1] - The latest exchange - rate of US Dollar against Japanese Yen is 156.87, with a change of 0.09 [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory's latest value is 13762.65, with a change of -101.33 [1] - SHFE Silver inventory's latest value is 637.65, with a change of 84.22 [1] - Gold ETF持仓's latest value is 1067.13, with no change [1] - Silver ETF持仓's latest value is 16215.43, with a change of 115.60 [1] - The latest value of the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory is not provided, and there is no change in the gold deferred - fee payment direction and a change of 0.00 in the silver deferred - fee payment direction [1]

国债： （朱金涛，从业资格号：F3060829；交易咨询资格号：Z0015271） 来源：市场资讯 股指： （王东灜，从业资格号：F03087149；交易咨询资格号：Z0019537） 昨日，A股市场震荡分化，Wind全A上涨0.08%，成交额2.83万亿元，中证1000指数上涨0.82%，中证 500指数上涨0.25%，沪深300指数下跌0.82%，上证50指数下跌0.73%。国防军工领涨，有色金属、非银 金融回调。资金情绪继续高涨，据统计，宽基型ETF12月净申购1100亿元，其中近1020亿元为 A500ETF。A500指数长期与沪深300走势高度相关，相关系数超过0.98，细微差别在于A500指数成长标 的稍多，例如电力设备、电子等板块。在A500ETF获得大幅申购的同时，我们关注到Top5会员单位IF净 空头近期显著上涨，二者可能存在对冲关联。因此，相关资金可能并不会因为跨年的结束而大幅净流 出。短期来看，预计股指短期仍在10月以来构建的震荡中枢内震荡。以中证1000为例，其三季度营业收 入累计同比增速2.6%左右，对其当前估值构成明显支撑，不易发生流动性风险。另一方面，春季躁动 行情需要一定的条件 ...

Core Insights - The analysis by Tian Yaxiong from CITIC Futures indicates that the commodity market in 2026 will be driven by the combination of "U.S. fiscal expansion" and "AI capital expenditure growth," which are crucial for supporting economic growth [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - U.S. fiscal expansion is playing a vital role as a "counter-cyclical support" in the current economic cycle, with a series of legislative measures becoming core variables for economic growth [1] - Major tech companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are projected to invest hundreds of billions to over a trillion dollars in AI-related capital expenditures, creating new demand for non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum [1] - The power density of AI data centers significantly exceeds that of traditional facilities, leading to increased reliance on copper and aluminum for power distribution and cooling systems, which shapes the future commodity market [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Domestic economic recovery is expected to continue, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) likely turning positive after the third quarter of 2026 [1] - The significant increase in export value added indicates resilience in industrial upgrades, while the monetary credit cycle has shown signs of a turning point [1] - The M1-M2 indicators are expected to support a moderate recovery in prices, leading PPI by approximately six months [1] Group 3: Cognitive Discrepancies - Four key cognitive discrepancies were highlighted: 1. The paradox of capacity clearance, where industries like electrolytic aluminum and lithium processing face a "loss-expansion" dilemma, with leading firms expanding despite losses [2] 2. The need to validate whether current massive capital expenditures in AI are overextending future investment potential and if global labor productivity can significantly improve due to AI [2] 3. The U.S. designating copper and silver as critical minerals, leading to increased trade barriers and supply tensions [2] 4. The potential slowdown in the "de-coal" process among emerging Asian economies due to energy security and economic considerations, impacting demand for related commodities [2] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The historical combination of "fiscal expansion + de-globalization" since 1970 suggests that commodities could enter a significant bull market under similar conditions [2] - Investors are advised to focus on structural opportunities in the non-ferrous and precious metals sectors, closely tied to AI and fiscal policies, while remaining cautious of monetary policy shifts and geopolitical events that may cause market volatility [2]

Report Summary 1. Hot News - Gold has officially surpassed US Treasuries to become the world's largest reserve asset for the first time in thirty years. As of the end of 2025, the value of global official gold reserves held overseas by the US reached $3.93 trillion, exceeding the value of overseas official US Treasuries, which was nearly $3.88 trillion as of October last year [2]. - US President Trump has agreed to promote a bill to strengthen sanctions against Russia. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that normal economic and energy cooperation between China and Russia does not target third - parties and should not be interfered with [2]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation recently约谈 the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and six leading polysilicon enterprises, warning of monopoly risks and setting restrictions on production and price - related agreements [2]. - Indonesia may approve about 600 million tons of coal production quotas in 2026 and adjust its nickel quotas according to industry demand. The domestic demand for nickel ore in Indonesian smelters is expected to rise from about 300 million tons in 2025 to about 340 - 350 million tons in 2026 [2]. - CME announced on January 8 (local time) that it will raise the performance bond for precious metal varieties after the market on January 9, which is the third such notice in the past month [3]. 2. Key Focus - The key commodities to focus on are urea, lithium carbonate, polysilicon, crude oil, and plastic [4]. 3. Night - session Performance - **Plate Performance**: The night - session price changes of different commodity futures sectors are as follows: non - metallic building materials 2.17%, precious metals 30.68%, oilseeds 8.01%, non - ferrous metals 28.17%, soft commodities 3.26%, coal, coking, and steel 10.67%, energy 2.41%, chemicals 10.22%, grains 1.16%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.25% [4]. - **Plate Position**: The document shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [5]. 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equity**: The daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes of major stock indices are provided. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily change of - 0.07%, a monthly change of 2.88%, and an annual change of 2.88% [6]. - **Fixed - income**: The daily, monthly, and annual changes of different - term treasury bond futures are presented. For instance, the 10 - year treasury bond futures had a daily change of 0.15%, a monthly change of - 0.06%, and an annual change of - 0.06% [6]. - **Commodity**: The performance of commodities such as the CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and the Wind commodity index is shown. For example, WTI crude oil had a daily change of 4.27%, a monthly change of 1.53%, and an annual change of 1.53% [6]. - **Other**: The daily, monthly, and annual changes of the US dollar index and the CBOE volatility index are given. The US dollar index had a daily change of 0.12%, a monthly change of 0.60%, and an annual change of 0.60% [6]. 5. Trends of Major Commodities - The document presents the trends of various commodities including the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3 - month copper, and agricultural products such as CBOT soybeans and CBOT corn, as well as relevant ratios like the gold - oil ratio and copper - gold ratio, and stock market risk premiums [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2) Core Views of the Report - On January 8, 2026, due to factors such as profit - taking, a slight strengthening of the US dollar, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's adjustment of silver - related trading rules, the precious metals sector declined, with platinum and palladium prices under pressure. The GFEX platinum main contract closed at 575 yuan/gram, down 6.72%, and the GFEX palladium main contract closed at 460.7 yuan/gram, down 3.57% [2]. - The overall outlook for platinum and palladium prices is to fluctuate strongly, but short - term price volatility has intensified, and investors are advised to trade cautiously and consider low - buying opportunities after sufficient adjustments [3][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Platinum - **Main Logic**: Affected by profit - taking and a slight strengthening of the US dollar, the precious metals sector declined, and platinum was under pressure. Geopolitical risks may further intensify price fluctuations. As of January 8, the premium between the domestic closing time of the GFEX platinum main contract and NYMEX platinum (tax - included) was 18.5 yuan/gram, and the internal - external price difference has significantly converged. In the future, South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, still faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. The platinum market is in a stage of structural expansion, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as an important growth point, expanding demand in jewelry and investment, and the "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will amplify the long - term price elasticity [3]. - **Outlook**: With a healthy supply - demand fundamental and positive macro expectations, platinum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. Short - term prices may continue to have wide - range fluctuations. Investors are advised to trade cautiously and can pay attention to low - buying opportunities after sufficient adjustments. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage strategies [3]. Palladium - **Main Logic**: The Russian geopolitical issue is a key factor affecting supply. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia, and the report has not been released, leading to a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions. On the demand side, palladium faces significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, short - term spot shortages keep prices firm, and the Fed's re - entry into the interest rate - cut cycle provides some support for the bottom of palladium prices [4]. - **Outlook**: With spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment, palladium prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. However, in the short term, price fluctuations have intensified, and investors are advised to trade cautiously and can pay attention to low - buying opportunities after sufficient adjustments [4]. Commodity Index - On January 8, 2026, the comprehensive index of the中信期货 commodity index was 2380.19, down 1.06%; the commodity 20 index was 2717.76, down 1.00%; the industrial products index was 2317.04, down 1.19% [48]. - The non - ferrous metals index on January 8, 2026, had a daily decline of 2.56%, a 5 - day increase of 3.25%, a 1 - month increase of 9.49%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.25% [50].

回望刚刚过去的2025年，如果要问什么东西涨价的最疯狂，相信所有人都会告诉你答案，这就是黄金，有媒体统计黄金去年一年创了50多次历史新高，统计 来看更是46年最大的涨幅，如此夸张的涨价，让人不禁想问今年黄金还会接着涨吗？ 一、金价一年创50多次历史新高 据央视财经的报道，2025年，大宗商品市场走势明显分化：贵金属领跑，能源板块承压。以黄金为例，金价创下了50多个历史新高，跑赢了美国的主要股指 和美元指数。背后的推动因素包括各国央行的购买、美联储降息的大环境、货币贬值交易的重燃、以及ETF资金的涌入等等。不容忽视的还有白银，2025年 COMEX白银期货的涨幅是黄金的两倍还多。而大宗商品板块，原油价格持续疲软。WTI和布伦特原油期货下挫的幅度均逼近20%。 据格隆汇的报道，2025年最后一个交易日金价下跌，但全年计，金价升64%，创1979年以来46年最大升幅。金价上升主要是美联储减息、地缘政治风险升 温、各国央行增持，以及资金持续流入黄金ETF交易所买卖基金等推动向上。 金融畅销书《货币战争》作者里卡斯(James Rickards)近期在媒体访问中预期，金价2026年底前有望冲上一万美元，白银亦可能上望2 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights that gold has become the largest reserve asset globally, surpassing the value of U.S. Treasury securities held overseas, with a value of $3.93 trillion compared to $3.88 trillion for U.S. debt [1] - The macroeconomic environment is supportive of precious metals, with easing inflation pressures and expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which are expected to sustain the long-term upward trend of gold prices [2][19] - The supply of silver remains tight, with industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector, driving investment interest, while platinum demand is also expected to rise due to its use in hybrid vehicles and hydrogen energy [2][19] Group 2 - Lithium carbonate contracts continue to reach new highs, with strong terminal demand and a weekly production increase of 259 tons to 22,420 tons, despite anticipated declines in the production of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate in January 2026 [3][23] - The social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased by 168 tons to 109,605 tons, indicating a potential for upward price movement despite short-term price fluctuations [3][24] - The rubber market is experiencing price stability due to supply constraints and steady tire production, with expectations of a strong performance in rubber prices [4][16] Group 3 - The restructuring of China National Petroleum Corporation and China Aviation Oil Group is approved by the State Council, indicating a trend towards strategic and professional consolidation among state-owned enterprises [8] - The U.S. government is intervening in the financial market by purchasing $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities to lower mortgage rates, which is seen as a form of quantitative easing [6]