Group 1 - The company anticipates that tariffs initiated by President Trump will lead to a cost increase of 1%-3% [1]

0 1 观点摘要 0 2 宏观经济 0 3 盘面情况 0 4 供应和需求 0 5 总结和展望 工作计划安排 WORK SCHEDULE 观点摘要 01 沪铜月度报告 关税风暴中的铜，警惕库存危机 研究员：肖艳丽 投资咨询号：Z0016612 日期：2025-04-30 目录 Contents ➢ 特朗普关税政策反复无常暴露了美国纸老虎的本质，市场预测关税对全球经济影响将在5月逐渐显现，如果 后续中美对抗继续螺旋升级，全球经济衰退预期或再次重演，而在关税成本暴涨下，美国二次通胀概率大 增，降低美联储降息预期，美国6月国债兑付危机逼近，市场恐慌情绪或再次出现，届时市场风险资产或泥 沙俱下，铜将再次承压，但同时美国铜进口关税悬而未决，刺激贸易商抽干全球铜库存，要警惕国内铜库 存骤降带来的逼仓风险，铜深跌的可能性较小，短期回调蓄力后反而会弹的更高。 ➢ 短期建议铜前期多单逐渐止盈兑现，落袋为安，轻仓或者空仓过节。五一假期后，关注宏观经济数据指引， 若经济数据低于预期，中美对抗加剧，铜或二次探底，可等待铜价企稳后回调逢低再入场，若中美对抗缓 和，铜库存去化加速，铜重心或缓慢上移。中长期看，中美博弈进入新阶段，全球铜矿紧 ...

Group 1 - In April, copper prices initially fell to 72,000 yuan/ton before recovering to around 77,000 yuan/ton due to rising market risk aversion and subsequent easing of trade tensions by the U.S. government [2] - The U.S. is negotiating trade agreements with 15 to 18 key partners, with India likely to be the first to reach an agreement, while the trade negotiations with China are intensifying [3] - The supply of copper concentrate remains tight, with processing fees declining significantly, and major mining companies have lowered their production guidance for 2025 [4] Group 2 - The import of scrap copper from the U.S. has dropped sharply, with March imports falling to 22,000 tons, a 29% decrease, as China imposes high tariffs on U.S. goods [5] - Social copper inventory has decreased for eight consecutive weeks, with a total of 155,100 tons, reflecting a tightening supply and increasing domestic demand [6] - The domestic copper market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with increased production in the face of limited imports, and the operating rate of major copper rod enterprises has risen to 79.56% [6] Group 3 - Overall, the copper market is facing weak supply, but demand is marginally improving due to domestic policies and overseas exports, although the sustainability of this demand recovery is in question [8] - The high tariffs imposed by both the U.S. and China are expected to severely impact consumer demand for durable goods, with potential negative effects on future demand [8] - The progress of U.S.-China trade negotiations will be crucial for copper prices, which may continue to rise if negotiations go smoothly, but could face downward pressure if they stall [8]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-04-30 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250331 | 2025/03 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.50 | 50.20 | 50.80 | | 20250331 | 2025/03 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.80 | 50.40 | 53.00 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250401 | 2025/03 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 51.20 | 50.80 | 51.10 | | 20250403 | 2025/03 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 | % | 51.90 | 51.40 | 52.70 | | | | 活动指数 | | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US labor market shows signs of weakness, with the March JOLTS job openings hitting a six - month low, and the upcoming Q1 GDP initial value may disappoint. The policies of the Trump administration and the tariff war are negatively affecting the labor market [7]. - For the container shipping index (European line), the near - term is under pressure. It is recommended to hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread position lightly, and reduce positions for near - month single - side trading before the holiday [8][9]. - Industrial silicon has a weak fundamental pattern. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies and be cautious when holding positions before the holiday [10]. - For live pigs, the inventory accumulation drive is weakening, and a phased inventory reduction may start, with short - term reverse spread opportunities [11][12]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pre - reading Highlights from the Director - **US Labor Market**: The US March JOLTS job openings were 7.192 million, far lower than the expected 7.5 million. The data has been on a downward trend since 2022, and recent policies have further impacted the labor market. The upcoming Q1 GDP initial value may be disappointing [7]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The near - term is under pressure. In early May, the loading rate was lower than expected, and the market freight rate has dropped. The 10 - 12 reverse spread can be held through the holiday, and near - month single - side trading should reduce positions before the holiday [8][9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The fundamentals are weak. The industry inventory is high, supply is increasing while demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies and be cautious before the holiday [10]. - **Live Pigs**: The inventory accumulation drive is weakening. With the increase in temperature, a phased inventory reduction may start in May, and there are short - term reverse spread opportunities [11][12]. 3.2 Commodity Research Morning Report - **Precious Metals**: Gold shows risk preference recovery, and silver rebounds steadily. Gold has a trend strength of 0, and silver also has a trend strength of 0 [18][21]. - **Copper**: Inventory continues to decrease, supporting the price. The trend strength is 0 [23][25]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum fluctuates strongly, while alumina drops significantly. Both have a trend strength of 0 [26][28]. - **Zinc**: It has a strong current situation but weak expectations, and will trade sideways in the short term. The trend strength is 0 [29][30]. - **Lead**: Demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. The trend strength is - 1 [32][33]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The upside and downside space of nickel converges, and the price may trade in a narrow range. Stainless steel has a cost - feedback game on the disk. Both have a trend strength of 0 [35][38]. - **Tin**: It shows a slight recovery. The trend strength is 0 [39][42]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a weakly oscillating disk, and polysilicon has a slight increase in registered warehouse receipts. Both have a trend strength of - 1 [43][46]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Warehouse receipts continue to increase, and the disk is under pressure. The trend strength is 0 [47][50]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are volatile, and it trades in a wide range. The trend strength is 0 [51][52]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Demand expectations are poor, and prices fluctuate at a low level. Both have a trend strength of 0 [55][58]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: Silicon ferroalloy oscillates at a low level due to black - sector resonance, and manganese ferroalloy oscillates at a low level due to ore - end information disturbances. Both have a trend strength of 0 [59][62]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are disturbed by production - limit news and trade in a wide range. Both have a trend strength of 0 [63][65]. - **Steam Coal**: The rigid demand has limited impact, and it trades weakly with oscillations. The trend strength is 0 [66][68]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [69]. - **Para - Xylene, PTA, and MEG**: Para - xylene has a collapsing cost and expanding processing margin. PTA recommends a month - spread reverse spread, and MEG suggests a long - PTA short - MEG strategy [72][73].

Core Viewpoint - Northern Copper Industry (000737) reported strong Q1 2025 results, with revenue of 6.838 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 371 million yuan, up 57.29%, exceeding market expectations [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Northern Copper achieved a revenue of 6.838 billion yuan, representing a 23.56% increase year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was 371 million yuan, reflecting a 57.29% year-on-year growth [1] - For the full year 2024, the company reported revenue of 24.107 billion yuan, a significant increase of 156.60%, and a net profit of 613 million yuan, which remained stable year-on-year [2] Group 2: Dividend Distribution - Northern Copper plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.10 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), totaling 210 million yuan [2] - The company has a history of stable dividend distribution, indicating strong profit quality and long-term confidence [2] Group 3: Resource and Technological Advantages - Northern Copper operates a large underground copper mine with an annual processing capacity of 9 million tons and a copper content of 43,000 tons [3] - The company has significant copper ore reserves, with 212.708 million tons of copper ore resources and 1.298686 million tons of copper metal as of the end of 2024 [3] - The introduction of innovative mining techniques has reduced costs and improved economic indicators, positioning the company favorably within the industry [3][4] Group 4: Research and Development - In 2024, Northern Copper invested 276 million yuan in R&D, focusing on various projects including smart mining technologies [4] - The company has initiated 23 technology projects and received 21 utility model patents, showcasing its commitment to innovation [4] Group 5: Integrated Industry Chain - Northern Copper is developing an integrated industry chain from exploration to deep processing, which helps mitigate operational risks and enhances resilience against market fluctuations [5] - The company has launched new projects in high-performance copper products, achieving certifications and stable operations, which are expected to contribute to profitability [5] Group 6: Future Development Plans - Northern Copper aims to accelerate digital transformation and increase technological investments, focusing on high-end, high-value-added products [6] - The company plans to leverage its research platforms to develop differentiated core technologies and products, positioning itself as a leading enterprise in the non-ferrous metal industry [6]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Northern Copper Industry (000737) reported significant growth in its financial performance for the first quarter of 2025, with revenue reaching 6.838 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.56% [1] - The net profit for the same period was 371 million yuan, showing a substantial year-on-year growth of 57.29% [1]

Group 1 - The celebration of the 100th anniversary of the All-China Federation of Trade Unions took place on April 28, highlighting the recognition of labor models and advanced workers across various sectors in Guangxi [1] - A total of 58 individuals from Guangxi were honored, including 39 national labor models and 19 advanced workers, showcasing a diverse representation from government, enterprises, and various professional fields [1] - The selection process for the awards emphasized transparency, fairness, and public participation, reflecting the importance of recognizing contributions to economic and social development in Guangxi over the past five years [1] Group 2 - The list of national labor models includes professionals from different industries, such as engineering, healthcare, and agriculture, indicating a broad spectrum of expertise and contributions [2][3][4] - Notable awardees include managers and engineers from prominent companies like Guangxi Nannan Aluminum Processing Co., Ltd. and SAIC-GM Wuling Automobile Co., Ltd., highlighting the role of industry leaders in driving innovation and productivity [2][3] - The recognition of advanced workers also features individuals from various sectors, including education, law enforcement, and healthcare, emphasizing the critical roles these professionals play in their communities [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - Northern Copper achieved significant revenue growth in 2024, but its profitability did not improve correspondingly, indicating challenges in cost control and debt management [2][12]. Financial Overview - Total revenue reached 24.107 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 156.6%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 613 million yuan, a decrease of 1.37% [2]. - In Q4, total revenue was 5.931 billion yuan, up 145.35% year-on-year, but net profit fell to 66.29 million yuan, down 34.81% [3]. Revenue Composition - Main revenue sources included cathode copper at 19.278 billion yuan (79.97% of total revenue) with a gross margin of 7.78%, and precious metals at 3.715 billion yuan (15.41%) with a gross margin of 7.71% [5]. Cash Flow and Debt Situation - The ratio of cash and cash equivalents to current liabilities was only 24.45%, and the ratio of interest-bearing debt to average operating cash flow over the past three years was 21.92%, indicating significant debt pressure [6]. Profitability and Cost Control - Despite revenue growth, gross margin and net margin decreased by 51.23% and 61.56%, respectively, highlighting challenges in cost management [7]. - The gross margin for sulfuric acid products was -63.62%, negatively impacting overall profitability [7]. Key Financial Metrics - Gross margin: 7.12%, down 51.23% year-on-year - Net margin: 2.54%, down 61.56% year-on-year - Earnings per share: 0.35 yuan, down 1.42% year-on-year [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For precious metals, short - term observation is recommended as there is a possibility of correction in the short - to - medium term, and the market is in a state of multi - empty game [4]. - For copper, prices are expected to remain high before May Day due to short - term tariff alleviation, strong pre - holiday consumption, and supply - side speculation. After May Day, the impact on consumption should be monitored [10]. - For alumina, prices are expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [18]. - For electrolytic aluminum, prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and domestic demand - boosting policies [21]. - For zinc, prices may rebound due to low social inventory, but the fundamentals are under pressure, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [26]. - For lead, prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro factors and import profitability [31]. - For nickel, prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and a mid - term strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [36]. - For stainless steel, prices may fluctuate in the short term and decline in the medium term [43]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term price is expected to be weak, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [47]. - For polysilicon, the short - term price is expected to be weak, and short - term positive arbitrage should take profit and exit [49]. - For lithium carbonate, a strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [54]. - For tin, prices are expected to adjust with fluctuations in the short term, and risk prevention is necessary [58]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - On Friday, precious metals gave back the previous day's gains. London gold closed down 0.9% at $3318.62 per ounce, and London silver closed down 1.53% at $33.1 per ounce. Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined [2]. Important Information - Trump made statements about tariff negotiations, and the US 4 - month inflation expectations and consumer confidence index were released. The probability of the Fed maintaining or cutting interest rates was also given [2]. Logic Analysis - Trump's attitude softening boosted market risk appetite, but after China's clarification, the market entered a wait - and - see state. Precious metals may correct in the short - to - medium term [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Temporarily observe. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [5]. Copper Market Review - LME copper closed at $9375 on Friday, up $15 or 0.16%. LME and COMEX inventories increased [7]. Important Information - Trump made statements about trade agreements, and major copper producers' production and sales expectations were reported [8]. Logic Analysis - Macro: Trump's trade agreement plan. Supply: Concentrate processing fees are falling, and smelter losses may increase. Demand: Downstream consumption has decreased, but pre - holiday stocking demand has increased [10]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices will remain high before May Day. After May Day, short - selling opportunities can be considered if consumption is affected. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [10][11]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session futures contract of alumina 2505 fell by 8 yuan/ton to 2823 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [13]. Important Information - There were issues with the Guinean shipping terminal, and the market supply was in a state of increase and decrease alternation. The relationship between price and production capacity was also analyzed [14]. Logic Analysis - After price declines and increased losses, production capacity adjustments occurred. Short - term supply - demand surplus was alleviated, and the market focused on the ore end [16]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - sell on rebounds. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [18]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session futures contract of Shanghai aluminum 2506 rose by 15 yuan/ton to 19970 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [19]. Important Information - The Politburo meeting and Trump's tariff statements were reported, and aluminum ingot inventories decreased [19][20]. Logic Analysis - Tariff issues are in negotiation. Fundamentally, the weighted开工率 of aluminum processing is stable, and the import of aluminum ingots may limit price increases. The annual supply - demand is expected to be in surplus [21]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices will fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to tariff and domestic demand policies. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [21]. Zinc Market Review - LME zinc fell 2.22% to $2645.5/ton, and Shanghai zinc 2506 fell 0.86% to 22550 yuan/ton. Spot trading was light [23]. Important Information - The Politburo meeting, industrial enterprise profit data, and LME's plan for a low - carbon metal premium mechanism were reported [24][25]. Logic Analysis - In May, domestic zinc concentrate supply will be relatively loose, and refined zinc production will remain high. Consumption is expected to decline after the peak season [25]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices may rebound due to low inventory, but short - selling on rallies can be considered. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [26]. Lead Market Review - LME lead fell 0.84% to $1945/ton, and Shanghai lead 2506 fell 0.94% to 16855 yuan/ton. Spot trading showed different performances in different regions [28]. Important Information - The Politburo meeting and the approval of nuclear power projects were reported [31]. Logic Analysis - Domestic secondary lead smelting may cut production due to losses. Prices may be strong, but attention should be paid to import profitability [31]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices will fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro and import factors. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [31]. Nickel Market Review - LME nickel fell to $15490/ton, and inventories decreased. Spot premiums and prices showed different trends [33]. Important Information - The production capacity and project responses of some nickel - related companies were reported, and Vale's nickel production increased [33][35]. Logic Analysis - Macro sentiment affects short - term prices. In May, the domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore decreased, but the full price remained firm. Supply is high, and demand may decline [36]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - sell on rebounds in the mid - term. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [39]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The main contract of stainless steel SS2506 fell to 12685 yuan/ton, and inventories decreased. Spot prices were reported [38][39]. Important Information - Steel Union's inventory statistics were reported [39]. Logic Analysis - Cost - driven price increases may end, and demand is unclear. Short - term prices follow nickel and macro factors, and may decline in the medium term [42]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Fluctuate in the short term and decline in the medium term. - Arbitrage: Observe [43]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The futures price of industrial silicon fell 0.85% to 8780 yuan/ton, and spot prices continued to decline [45]. Important Information - An organic silicon factory planned to carry out maintenance [45]. Comprehensive Analysis - DMC prices are falling, and monomer enterprise maintenance is increasing. Demand is weak, and supply may increase. The price is in a negative cycle [46]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - sell on rallies. - Options: Observe. - Arbitrage: Participate in reverse arbitrage of Si2511 and Si2512 [47]. Polysilicon Market Review - The futures price of polysilicon fell 1.84% to 38390 yuan/ton, and spot prices declined [49]. Important Information - National energy data showed an increase in photovoltaic installation [49]. Comprehensive Analysis - Component, silicon wafer, and battery prices are falling, and the industry is pessimistic about demand. The futures market has strong multi - empty games, and prices are expected to decline [49]. Strategy - Unilateral: Observe in the short term and pay attention to manufacturers' production of delivery products after the holiday. - Options: None. - Arbitrage: Take profit and exit the long PS2506 and short PS2511 arbitrage [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract of lithium carbonate fell to 68180 yuan/ton, and spot prices declined [53]. Important Information - The progress of the automobile circulation reform and Tesla's situation in India were reported [53]. Logic Analysis - Production decreased last week, but inventory increased slightly, indicating weak demand. After May, supply may increase, and prices may be under pressure [53]. Pre - holiday Positioning Suggestion - Unilateral: Short - sell on rebounds. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Hold put ratio options [54]. Tin Market Review - The night - session futures contract of Shanghai tin 2505 fell 0.3% to 262025 yuan/ton, and spot prices increased. Trading was light [56]. Important Information - Trump's trade agreement statements and Tin Industry Co.'s quarterly report were reported [57]. Logic Analysis - Trump's trade negotiation plan may cause market fluctuations. The short - term supply of tin ore is tight, but the annual supply - demand tension is relieved [58]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adjust with fluctuations in the short term and pay attention to risks. - Options: Observe [58][60].