Report Overview - Report Title: Supply and Demand Improve, but the Actual Magnitude is Limited. Lithium Carbonate is Difficult to Maintain Long - Term and Significant Increases - Lithium Carbonate Industry Chain Weekly Data Report [1] - Report Date: August 20, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shutdown of the Jianxiawo Mine has brought lithium carbonate prices to a new level, and the marginal change from passive inventory accumulation to passive inventory depletion in lithium carbonate supply and demand has significantly improved the market expectations in the first half of the year, with the price center expected to rise. However, the expected annual inventory depletion of 1 - 2 million tons after the shutdown is limited compared to the current market inventory of 14 million tons. If the market continues to rise significantly, it may open the profit window for imported lithium mines such as those from Australia and Africa, quickly making up for the supply reduction caused by the shutdown of the Jianxiawo Mine and attracting hedging funds, so it may experience short - term significant increases but is difficult to maintain in the long term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Report Summary 3.1.1 Fundamental Overview - Lithium Ore: The price of spodumene has risen rapidly, leading the increase in ore prices. Affected by administrative orders in Jiangxi and Qinghai, the operating rates of lithium mica and salt lake sectors have significantly declined in July. After the confirmation of the shutdown of Jianxiawo, the market demand for lithium mica has significantly decreased, and the price of spodumene, as an alternative, has led the increase in the lithium ore market. Attention should be paid to the quantity of imported spodumene supplemented due to high prices [3]. - Lithium Salt: It has continued to take advantage of the situation, and the upper integer price levels may be the targets of long - positions. The news of the shutdown of Jianxiawo last week pushed the lithium carbonate LC futures contract to the price range of 80,000 yuan. The marginal reduction may change the domestic lithium carbonate supply - demand from passive inventory accumulation to passive inventory depletion. The market long - positions continue to take advantage of the market rumors of the shutdown of the salt lake sector to drive up prices, with the upper levels of 90,000 and 100,000 yuan being the next targets of long - positions. However, with a high inventory of 14 million tons, it is difficult for lithium carbonate to maintain high prices in the long term [3]. - Cathode Materials and Lithium Batteries: The impact of anti - involution is gradually fading. The impact of anti - involution focused on the new energy vehicle market is gradually fading. Recently, lithium carbonate has been indirectly affected by the sentiment of industries such as photovoltaics, with limited substantial impact [3]. 3.1.2 Market Summary - The shutdown of the Jianxiawo Mine has brought lithium carbonate prices to a new level. The marginal change in supply and demand has improved market expectations, but the expected inventory depletion is limited compared to the current inventory. If the market rises significantly, it may attract imported lithium mines and hedging funds, making it difficult to maintain long - term high prices [4]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet 3.2.1 Lithium Carbonate Balance Sheet - Slowing Inventory Accumulation - From July 2024 to July 2025, the supply, demand, import, export, inventory change, and cumulative balance of lithium carbonate showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the supply was 81,530 tons, demand was 96,275 tons, import was 18,000 tons, export was 573 tons, inventory change was 2,682 tons, and the cumulative balance was 164,565 tons [8]. 3.2.2 Lithium Hydroxide Balance Sheet - From August 2024 to July 2025, the supply, demand, import, export, inventory change, and cumulative balance of lithium hydroxide also showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the supply was 25,170 tons, demand was 22,969 tons, import was 750 tons, export was 6,100 tons, inventory change was - 3,149 tons, and the cumulative balance was 25,163 tons [12]. 3.3 Upstream Ore Supply, Demand, and Price 3.3.1 Spodumene Import - From December 2023 to June 2025, the import volume and average import price of lithium concentrate from different countries (Australia, Brazil, etc.) showed different trends. For example, in June 2025, the total import volume was 427,626 tons, with 255,506 tons from Australia and 39,811 tons from Brazil, and the average import price was 639 US dollars per ton [19]. 3.3.2 Chinese Lithium Ore - Spodumene Quotation Leading the Increase - From December 2023 to July 2025, the production of sample lithium mica mines and spodumene mines showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the production of lithium mica was 16,100 tons with a month - on - month decrease of 4.17%, and the production of spodumene was 6,500 tons with a month - on - month increase of 0.78% [24]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Supply, Demand, and Price 3.4.1 Lithium Salt Spot and Futures Prices - Obvious Impact of Lithium Ore Shutdown - From July 1, 2025, to August 15, 2025, the prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and the price differences between them showed different trends. For example, on August 15, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 84,000 yuan, industrial - grade was 83,000 yuan, battery - grade lithium hydroxide was 77,875 yuan, the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 1,000 yuan, and the difference between lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide was 6,125 yuan [27]. 3.4.2 Production Cost and Profit - Spodumene Expected to Supplement Market Gap - From July 9, 2025, to August 15, 2025, the production costs and profits of lithium carbonate produced from spodumene, low - grade mica, and high - grade mica showed different trends. For example, on August 15, 2025, the production cost of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 73,053 yuan per ton, with a profit of 10,947 yuan; the production cost from low - grade mica was 91,674 yuan per ton, with a loss of 7,674 yuan; and the production cost from high - grade mica was 53,983 yuan per ton, with a profit of 30,017 yuan [41]. 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate Production - From July 2023 to July 2025, the weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the total monthly production was 81,530 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26% and a month - on - month increase of 4% [50]. 3.4.4 Operating Rate - Obvious Decline in Operating Rates of Mica and Salt Lake Sectors in July - From July 2022 to July 2025, the operating rates of lithium salt, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide showed different trends. The operating rates of lithium carbonate production from different raw materials (spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake) also showed different trends [52][55]. 3.4.5 Lithium Carbonate Monthly Import Volume - From December 2021 to June 2025, the total import volume of lithium carbonate and the import volumes from Argentina and Chile showed different trends. For example, in June 2025, the total import volume was 17,698 tons, with 5,094 tons from Argentina and 11,853 tons from Chile [60]. 3.4.6 Lithium Carbonate Inventory - Attention Needed on the Sustainability of Inventory Depletion - From December 2022 to July 2025, the inventory of lithium carbonate in downstream and smelting plants, weekly inventory, and the number of registered futures warehouse receipts showed different trends [62][63][65]. 3.5 Lithium Salt Downstream Production and Demand 3.5.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Slowing Production Growth - From November 2019 to July 2025, the production and operating rate of lithium iron phosphate showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the production was 290,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.00% and a month - on - month increase of 1.86%, and the operating rate was 57.00% [70]. 3.5.2 Ternary Materials Production and Operating Rate - From December 2023 to July 2025, the production and operating rate of ternary materials showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the production was 68,640 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.70% and a month - on - month increase of 5.80% [75]. 3.5.3 Ternary Materials Import and Export Volume - From December 2021 to June 2025, the import, export, and net import volumes of ternary materials showed different trends. For example, in June 2025, the import volume was 5,349 tons, the export volume was 10,636 tons, and the net import volume was - 5,287 tons [80]. 3.5.4 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - From November 2021 to July 2025, the production of pure - electric vehicles, plug - in hybrid vehicles, and the inventory warning index of automobile dealers showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the production of pure - electric vehicles was 807,000, the production of plug - in hybrid vehicles was 436,000, and the inventory warning index was 57.2 [81].

Group 1 - NIO has announced a price adjustment for its 100kWh long-range battery pack, with the price for vehicle purchase and battery rental both being adjusted [1][2] - The new price for the 100kWh long-range battery pack will be reduced from 128,000 yuan to 108,000 yuan starting from August 19, 2025, while the battery rental service fee remains unchanged at 1,128 yuan per month [2] - The permanent upgrade service price has been lowered from 58,000 yuan to 38,000 yuan, while the flexible upgrade pricing remains the same [2] Group 2 - Customers who have purchased the 100kWh long-range battery pack and completed delivery between January 1, 2025, and August 18, 2025, will receive a renewal gift voucher worth 20,000 yuan, which can be used to reduce the price of new NIO vehicles [2]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors achieved record high performance in Q2 2025, with expectations to surpass 40,000 monthly deliveries [1][4][10] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Xiaopeng Motors reported total revenue of 18.27 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 125.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.6%, marking a historical high for a single quarter [5][9] - The company's gross margin reached 17.3%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year and 1.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [8][9] - Net loss for Q2 2025 was 480 million RMB, significantly reduced from 1.28 billion RMB in Q2 2024 and 660 million RMB in Q1 2025 [8][9] Delivery and Production Outlook - Monthly delivery volume stabilized above 30,000 units in Q2 2025, with guidance indicating it will exceed 40,000 units in Q3 2025 [4][12] - The company aims for an average delivery volume of 38,200 to 40,700 units in August and September 2025 [12] - The launch of the new Xiaopeng P7 is expected to significantly boost sales, with pre-orders exceeding 10,000 units within 6 minutes and 37 seconds [12][13] Strategic Initiatives - Xiaopeng Motors plans to complete the upgrade of its new generation technology platform by 2025, creating a technological gap with competitors [4][10] - The company is entering a "self-sustaining" phase, with a goal to achieve quarterly profitability by Q4 2025 [8][10] - The introduction of the Xiaopeng X9, the first model in the "dual-energy" product cycle, is set for Q4 2025, along with several other high-performance electric vehicle models [15]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors achieved record high performance in Q2 2025, with expectations to surpass 40,000 monthly deliveries [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Xiaopeng Motors reported total revenue of 18.27 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 125.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.6%, marking a historical high for a single quarter [2][6] - The company's gross margin reached 17.3%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year and 1.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [5][6] - Net loss for Q2 2025 was 480 million RMB, significantly reduced from 1.28 billion RMB in Q2 2024 and 660 million RMB in Q1 2025 [5][6] Delivery and Production Outlook - Monthly delivery volume stabilized above 30,000 units in Q2 2025, with guidance indicating it will exceed 40,000 units in Q3 2025 [3][11] - The company aims for a total delivery of 113,000 to 118,000 units in Q3 2025 [11] - Xiaopeng Motors plans to launch multiple new models, including the new P7, which is expected to significantly boost delivery volumes [9][13][14] Strategic Initiatives - The company is entering a new phase of "self-sustaining" profitability, with a focus on scaling operations and market share both domestically and internationally [5][8] - Xiaopeng Motors is set to introduce its first "Kunpeng" super electric vehicle model, the Xiaopeng X9, in Q4 2025, marking the start of a new product cycle [15]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market showed mixed performance with the Nasdaq down 1.14%, S&P 500 down 0.38%, and Dow Jones up 0.25% as of 23:02 [1] - Major indices such as Nasdaq 100 and the Wande American Technology Seven Giants Index also experienced declines of 1.10% and 1.41% respectively [2] - Commodities saw a drop in gold prices and a decline in oil prices across the board [2] Precious Metals and Energy - Gold prices fell below $3,330 per ounce, with the latest price at $3,329.80, down 0.09% [3] - COMEX gold futures also saw a slight decline of 0.12% [3] - WTI crude oil and ICE Brent crude oil prices decreased by 1.00% and 0.83% respectively [3] Chinese Stocks Performance - Several Chinese concept stocks rose against the trend, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector, which saw an increase of over 2% [6] - Notable gainers included Color Star Technology, which surged over 22%, and several others like YSXT and RAYA, which rose over 10% [7][8] Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Outlook - Jerome Powell is set to deliver a significant speech, with market concerns that he may counter the growing expectations for aggressive rate cuts [5][18] - Analysts suggest that a 50 basis point rate cut in September may be unlikely, as Powell is expected to maintain a cautious stance [18][19] - The upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is anticipated to be a platform for Powell to clarify the Fed's position on interest rates [18][20] Market Reactions and Predictions - Historical data indicates that the "Jackson Hole week" typically yields positive returns for the S&P 500, with a median weekly gain of 0.8% [22] - However, the current high P/E ratio of 25.5 for the S&P 500 raises concerns about potential market corrections if Powell's remarks disappoint investors [22] - Analysts predict that if Powell maintains a hawkish tone, it could lead to a negative impact on the market, although a 25 basis point cut remains a strong possibility [23][24]

Group 1 - Tesla Model Y L long-range all-wheel drive version launched with a starting price of 339,000 yuan and a six-seat layout, expected to begin deliveries in September [2][3] - The new Model Y L features an extended design with a drag coefficient of 0.216, dimensions of 4976/1920/1668mm, and a wheelbase of 3040mm [5] - The vehicle is equipped with dual motors, a maximum power of 340kW, 0-100 km/h acceleration in 4.5 seconds, and an 82kWh battery providing a CLTC range of 751 km [8] Group 2 - Leap Motor reported a 155.7% year-on-year increase in deliveries to 221,664 units in the first half of 2025, with revenue of 24.249 billion yuan, up 174% [10][11] - Xiaopeng Motors achieved a record high in Q2 2025 with deliveries of 103,181 units, a 241.6% increase year-on-year, and revenue of 18.27 billion yuan, up 125.3% [13][16] - Xiaomi Group's Q2 2025 report showed a new car delivery of 81,302 units, with revenue from smart electric vehicles and AI reaching 21.3 billion yuan and a gross margin of 26.4% [20][21] Group 3 - NIO reduced the price of its 100kWh long-range battery pack by 20,000 yuan, now priced at 108,000 yuan, as part of a strategy to enhance market competitiveness [31][32] - NIO's G318 route for battery swapping has been fully operational, with 15 battery swap stations along the 2950 km route, enhancing user convenience [33][36] - The "Starry Sky Plan" aims to enter the automotive sector through an ecological chain cooperation model, with plans for a high-end new energy SUV to be produced by 2027 [41][44]

Industry Information - In July, China's power battery installation volume reached 55.9 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 34.3%, with lithium iron phosphate accounting for 80.4% of the total [9][10] - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported that in July, 1.262 million new energy vehicles were sold, marking a year-on-year growth of 27.4% [9][10] - Cumulative production of power and other batteries from January to July reached 831.1 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 57.5% [9] - Cumulative installation volume of power batteries from January to July was 355.4 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 45.1% [9] - The cumulative sales of new energy vehicles from January to July reached 8.23 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 39.2% [10] Policy Information - A new national standard for the transportation of power lithium batteries will be implemented starting February 1, 2026, focusing on safety and efficiency in transport [21] - The Qinghai Provincial Energy Bureau is soliciting opinions on the management measures for electric vehicle charging and swapping infrastructure [21] - The Shenzhen Development and Reform Commission is seeking feedback on local standards for supercharging stations and their integration with the urban power grid [21] - The Jilin Provincial Energy Bureau has issued guidelines for subsidies related to the construction and operation of battery swapping stations [21] - The Guangzhou Municipal Industry and Information Technology Bureau has released a plan for the high-quality development of virtual power plants, aiming for a capacity of 5 million kW by the end of 2027 [20] Company Information - CATL has launched a battery repair service to address the high costs associated with battery replacement, offering repair prices significantly lower than full battery replacement costs [13] - A new battery recycling company has been established with an investment of 650 million yuan, focusing on the recycling and reuse of used power batteries [15] - The project for CATL's extreme film project has commenced in Xining, Qinghai, marking a significant step in their strategic cooperation with the city [17] - The Sea Owl flying car global headquarters project has started construction, with a total investment of approximately 1 billion yuan [17] - The first resident vehicle-grid interaction pilot project has been launched in Guangzhou, allowing electric vehicles to supply power back to the grid [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - Leapmotor achieved its first half-year net profit in 2025, raising its sales guidance for 2025 to 580,000-650,000 units, with a target of challenging 1 million units in 2026 [1][6][7]. Financial Performance - Leapmotor's revenue for the first half of 2025 was RMB 24.25 billion, a 174% increase from RMB 8.85 billion in the same period of 2024 [2][20]. - The company reported a net profit of RMB 30 million for the first half of 2025, marking its first positive half-year net profit [3][24]. - The gross margin reached a record high of 14.1%, up from 1.1% in the first half of 2024, reflecting a 13 percentage point increase [3][22]. - Total vehicle deliveries in the first half of 2025 were 221,700 units, a 155.7% increase compared to 86,700 units in the same period of 2024 [3][24]. Sales and Production Guidance - The sales guidance for 2025 has been adjusted to 580,000-650,000 units, with expectations for significant growth in August and September [6][8]. - Leapmotor aims to challenge the target of 1 million units in annual sales by 2026 [7]. - The D-series models are set to debut in October 2025, with a launch planned for the first quarter of 2026 [10][11]. Research and Development - Leapmotor plans to achieve urban NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) by the end of 2025, aiming to be among the top tier in assisted driving technology [13]. - The company is expected to localize production in Europe, with the B-series models being the first to be produced there [15][18]. Market Expansion - Leapmotor has established over 600 sales and service points in approximately 30 international markets, with more than 550 in Europe [29]. - The company plans to establish a localized production base in Europe by the end of 2026 to enhance its global market presence [29]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - As of June 30, 2025, Leapmotor's cash reserves totaled RMB 29.58 billion, indicating strong financial health [26]. - The free cash flow for the first half of 2025 was RMB 860 million, a significant improvement from a negative RMB 480 million in the same period of 2024 [26].

Economic Overview - The national economy shows a steady growth trend, with industrial added value above designated size increasing by 5.7% year-on-year in July and 6.3% from January to July [1][3] - The service industry continues to grow rapidly, contributing significantly to economic stability [6] Industrial Production - Industrial production maintains robust growth, with high-quality development progressing steadily, showcasing resilience and potential [1] - High-tech manufacturing added value increased by 9.3% year-on-year in July, with significant growth in integrated circuits and electronic materials [2] - Equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors are key contributors, with respective growth rates of 8.4% and 9.3% [1][2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment continues to expand, with a total of 288,229 billion yuan from January to July, marking a 1.6% year-on-year increase [3] - Manufacturing investment grew by 6.2%, with high-tech industries such as aerospace and information services seeing substantial increases [3] Consumer Market - Retail sales showed positive growth, with total retail sales reaching 38,780 billion yuan in July, up 3.7% year-on-year [4] - Online retail sales increased by 9.2%, indicating a strong shift towards e-commerce [4][5] - The consumption upgrade policy, including trade-in programs, has positively impacted sales of upgraded goods [5] Service Sector Growth - The service sector's contribution to economic growth is significant, with a 5.5% year-on-year increase in added value in the first half of 2025 [6] - The service production index rose by 5.8% in July, with information technology services growing at 11.9% [6]

Core Insights - The L90 model from LeDao has achieved significant sales success, with over 4,000 units delivered within 10 days of its launch, indicating strong market demand [2] - The vehicle's pre-sale phase was also impressive, with over 10,000 orders within the first 24 hours and more than 30,000 orders by the fourth day [2] - The introduction of a 60 kWh battery rental option reflects the company's responsiveness to consumer demand for more flexible battery solutions [6] Sales Performance - In Beijing, the top-selling variant is the six-seat Ultra version, with one salesperson reporting sales of over 30 units [4] - The sales personnel in Tianjin noted that 80% of customers opted for battery rental, highlighting a trend towards flexible ownership models [8] - The Zhengzhou store reported that the mid-range model is the most popular, with a significant number of customers also considering the 60 kWh battery option [11] Market Strategy - The launch of the L90 is seen as a critical move for NIO to regain momentum in a competitive EV market, especially after a period of slowing sales growth [8][12] - NIO aims to achieve profitability by the fourth quarter of this year, with the L90's performance being pivotal to this goal [12] - The company has accumulated a net loss of 130 billion yuan as of Q1 2025, emphasizing the urgency for successful product launches [12]