Core Viewpoint - The Chinese futures market has shown remarkable performance in early 2026, with significant increases in trading volume, market funds, and industry profits, driven by a combination of external geopolitical tensions and domestic growth policies [1][5]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In the first two months of 2026, the total net profit of futures companies reached 27.55 billion yuan, doubling from 10.62 billion yuan in the same period last year, marking a 159% year-on-year increase [3][6]. - The total revenue for February was 31.71 billion yuan, with a net profit of 9.80 billion yuan, despite a seasonal decline due to the Spring Festival [3][4]. - The trading volume in February reached 55.54 trillion yuan, with a total of 5.28 billion contracts traded, indicating sustained high activity levels [3]. Group 2: Market Scale and Client Growth - As of late March 2026, the total market funds surged to 2.67 trillion yuan, a 24.19% increase from the end of the previous year, setting a new historical high [6][7]. - Cumulative trading volume and value reached 22.68 billion contracts and 226.17 trillion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 40.43% and 59.23% [6]. - The number of effective clients surpassed 3 million, representing an 8.52% increase from the end of the previous year, indicating a growing participation in the futures market [7]. Group 3: Factors Driving Growth - The increase in profits and market activity is attributed to several factors, including heightened risk management needs due to geopolitical conflicts and commodity price volatility, which have driven enterprises to engage in hedging [7][8]. - Domestic economic stability and enhanced risk management awareness among businesses have contributed to the influx of new clients and capital into the market [7][8]. - The active trading environment has led to a significant rise in transaction volumes, which in turn has boosted the revenues of futures companies [8]. Group 4: Market Resilience and Future Outlook - Despite increased price volatility due to geopolitical tensions, the Chinese futures market has demonstrated strong resilience, with stable positions and a balanced trading structure among different types of investors [10][11]. - The market is expected to maintain high activity levels due to ongoing uncertainties in the global economy and commodity price fluctuations, although long-term growth will require futures companies to enhance their risk management and service capabilities [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum oxide's fundamentals may be in a state of increasing supply and demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - Electrolytic aluminum's fundamentals may be in a stage of stable supply and warming demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - Cast aluminum alloy's fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and rising demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trades, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 24,875.00 yuan/ton, up 150.00 yuan; the closing price of the aluminum oxide futures main contract was 2,827.00 yuan/ton, down 114.00 yuan [2] - The spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts of SHFE aluminum was - 115.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan; the spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts of aluminum oxide was - 11.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan [2] - The open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 258,839.00 lots, down 5089.00 lots; the open interest of the aluminum oxide main contract was 199,275.00 lots, down 3436.00 lots [2] - The LME aluminum canceled warrants were 148,050.00 tons, down 2200.00 tons; the total inventory of aluminum oxide was 475,344.00 tons, up 14029.00 tons [2] - The LME three - month electrolytic aluminum quotation was 3,445.00 US dollars/ton, up 160.50 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 420,875.00 tons, down 2200.00 tons [2] - The net position of the top 20 in SHFE aluminum was - 53,216.00 lots, down 13662.00 lots; the SHFE - LME ratio was 7.22, down 0.31 [2] - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 23,695.00 yuan/ton, up 65.00 yuan; the registered warrants of cast aluminum alloy on the SHFE were 33,582.00 tons, down 1625.00 tons [2] - The spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts of cast aluminum alloy was 120.00 yuan/ton, up 150.00 yuan; the open interest of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 6,958.00 lots [2] - The SHFE inventory of SHFE aluminum was 454,571.00 tons, up 2527.00 tons; the SHFE inventory of cast aluminum alloy was 45,761.00 tons, down 7929.00 tons [2] - The SHFE warrants of SHFE aluminum were 408,197.00 tons, up 4639.00 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM A00 aluminum was 24,610.00 yuan/ton, up 80.00 yuan; the spot price of aluminum oxide from SMM was 2,770.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 24,700.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 24,525.00 yuan/ton, up 80.00 yuan [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 1,005.00 yuan/ton, down 65.00 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 265.00 yuan/ton, down 70.00 yuan [2] - The premium/discount of Shanghai Wumao aluminum was - 110.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was 47.21 US dollars/ton, down 14.02 US dollars [2] - The basis of aluminum oxide was - 57.00 yuan/ton, up 114.00 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of pre - baked anodes in the northwest region was 5,794.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of aluminum oxide nationwide was 82.10%, down 0.39 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of aluminum oxide was 801.10 tons, down 12.70 tons; the monthly capacity utilization rate of aluminum oxide was 83.00%, down 1.00 percentage point [2] - The monthly demand for aluminum oxide (electrolytic aluminum part) was 731.29 tons, up 25.33 tons; the monthly supply - demand balance of aluminum oxide was 28.90 tons, up 2.32 tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 0.00 yuan/ton, down 19150.00 yuan; China's monthly import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 136,323.65 tons, down 56401.89 tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap was 18,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; China's monthly export volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 55.23 tons, up 33.81 tons [2] - The monthly export volume of aluminum oxide was 15.00 tons, down 4.00 tons; the monthly import volume of aluminum oxide was 18.10 tons, down 7.94 tons [2] - The monthly supply - demand balance of aluminum was 37.40 tons, up 22.90 tons; the weekly social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 139.70 tons, up 2.60 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of primary aluminum was 201,617.04 tons, up 12525.43 tons; the monthly total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,512.85 tons, up 3.00 tons [2] - The monthly export volume of primary aluminum was 10,040.43 tons, down 3270.78 tons; the monthly operating rate of electrolytic aluminum was 98.94%, up 0.04 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of aluminum products was 613.60 tons, up 20.50 tons; the monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 42.96 tons, down 11.50 tons [2] - The monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 27.08 tons, down 39.41 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 1.33 tons, down 1.09 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Applications - The total built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 126.00 tons, unchanged; the monthly National Real Estate Climate Index was 91.45, down 0.44 [2] - The monthly output of aluminum alloy was 182.50 tons, unchanged; the monthly automobile production was 341.20 vehicles, down 10.70 vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce will launch optimized measures for tax - free shopping for outbound travelers, introduce measures to promote the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption, and promote the development of the automotive aftermarket [2] - From January to February 2026, the import of automobiles was 70,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 25%. In February 2026, the import of automobiles was 32,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 12% and a month - on - month decrease of 17% [2] - The Ministry of Commerce will implement a special action to boost consumption, optimize the policy of trading in old consumer goods for new ones, and promote the reform of automotive circulation and consumption [2] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the Fed tends to keep interest rates unchanged, but may take action if inflation expectations change [2] - New York Fed President Williams said that the current interest rate level is in a favorable position, and the Fed should not take action for the time being [2] - Fed Governor Milan called for interest rate cuts and believed that the Fed could cut interest rates by 100 basis points this year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - No clear core view can be summarized from the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Stock Indexes**: The closing prices of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, and China Securities 1000 are 4446.30, 2833.2054, and 7767.9301 respectively, with changes of -0.24%, -0.14%, and 0.28% [3]. - **Trading Volume and Turnover**: The trading volume of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, and China Securities 1000 are 209.29 billion, 49.11 billion, and 261.17 billion respectively, and the turnover are 1033.15 billion, 4491.95 billion, and 4119.74 billion respectively [3]. 3.2 CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading Situation - **Option Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, the option trading volume is 8.25 million, open - interest is 5.09 million, with a call option trading volume of 2.79 million, put option trading volume of 3.16 million, call option open - interest of 1.30 million, and put option open - interest of 1.49 million. For Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, the option trading volume is 19.20 million, open - interest is 11.58 million, with a call option trading volume of 8.40 million, put option trading volume of 4.38 million, call option open - interest of 4.02 million, and put option open - interest of 7.62 million. For China Securities 1000, the option trading volume is 31.87 million, open - interest is 17.82 million, with a call option trading volume of 31.02 million, put option trading volume of 12.90 million, call option open - interest of 18.11 million, and put option open - interest of 14.05 million [3]. - **PCR**: The trading volume PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, and China Securities 1000 are 0.62, 0.92, and 0.71 respectively, and the open - interest PCR are 0.87, 0.66, and 0.79 respectively [3]. 3.3 Volatility Analysis - **Historical Volatility and Volatility Cone**: For Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, and China Securities 1000, the historical volatility and volatility cone are presented, including the maximum, minimum, current value, and different percentile values (10%, 30%, 60%, 90%) [3]. - **Volatility Smile Curve**: The volatility smile curves of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, and China Securities 1000 for the next - month at - the - money implied volatility are provided [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In Q2 2026, the commodity market will enter a "structural differentiation" stage with intense competition between bullish and bearish factors. The general upward trend is hard to sustain, and the "unevenness" between sectors will be the main theme. Investors should focus on structural opportunities and strictly control risks [3][46]. Summary by Directory 1. 2026 Q1 Nanhua Commodity Index Overview - The Nanhua Composite Index rose continuously in January, dropped rapidly at the end of January and early February, entered a continuous upward phase from mid - February, and entered an oscillatory adjustment period from mid - March [2][14]. - The sub - sectors showed differentiation. The precious metals index rose nearly 50% in January and then declined. The industrial products index was similar to the composite index, but it broke through the previous high at the end of March due to the explosion of the energy - chemical sector and the rapid decline of the precious metals sector. The energy - chemical index was in a narrow - range oscillation in January and February and entered a rapid upward range in March [2][14]. - The Nanhua Composite Index and the industrial products index have broken through or touched the historical range. The precious metals index ended its strong upward trend, while the agricultural products index remained in the long - term oscillatory range [15]. 2. 2026 Q1 Index Rise and Fall Analysis - **Fiscal Aspect**: From January to February, the national general public budget revenue increased by 0.7% year - on - year, tax revenue increased by 15.8%, but government fund revenue decreased by 16% year - on - year. The issuance of local bonds was pre - arranged, but fiscal efforts were still cautious [34]. - **Real Estate and Infrastructure**: The real estate market was still cold. New and second - hand housing prices in first, second, and third - tier cities showed declines. Sales data was sluggish, and developers were cautious. In contrast, infrastructure construction investment increased significantly, driving the recovery of the construction industry [35][39]. 3. 2026 Q2 Nanhua Composite Index Outlook - **Precious Metals Sector**: In Q2, the global precious metals market is expected to enter a wide - range oscillatory bottom - building stage, with gold prices likely to fluctuate between $4300 - $4800 per ounce. Short - term factors such as high interest rates and geopolitical risks will suppress prices, but long - term factors such as "de - dollarization" and supply shortages will provide support [55]. - **Energy Sector**: The global crude oil market has reversed from "extreme pessimism" to "extreme panic". In Q2, the price center will be reshaped by risk premiums, and the market will be affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand relationships [57]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector**: In Q2, the non - ferrous metals market will enter an "observation window period" with a pattern of "first decline then rise and wide - range oscillation". Short - term macro factors will suppress the market, but supply - side constraints and long - term demand will provide support [61]. - **Black Metals Sector**: In Q2, the black metals market will be in a state of oscillatory bottom - building. The market was affected by factors such as weak supply and demand at the beginning of the year, and then the price was supported by cost factors [63]. 4. Summary No relevant content provided other than the title.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No relevant content provided 3. Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On March 30, 2026, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 706,900 contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 818,200 contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1,445,700 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 47,400 contracts; ChiNext ETF options was 1,229,500 contracts; SSE 50 index options was 27,900 contracts; CSI 300 index options was 77,000 contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 310,200 contracts [1] - The table shows the call, put, and total trading volumes of various index ETF options on the same day [21] Option PCR - The turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 1.19, with a month - on - month change of +0.00; the position PCR was 0.73, with a change of +0.00. Similar data for other options are also provided, including CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai), CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai), etc. [2][35] Option VIX - The VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 18.17%, with a month - on - month change of +0.71%. Similar VIX data and changes for other options such as CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai), CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) are also presented [3][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The macro and financial sector, specifically the bond market, is expected to be volatile in the short - term. The report also analyzes various factors affecting the bond market, including central bank operations, interest rates, and geopolitical situations. Additionally, it mentions the performance of the overall market and the real - estate market [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - On Monday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher across the board. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2606 rose 0.38%, the 10 - year T2606 rose 0.15%, the 5 - year TF2606 rose 0.10%, and the 2 - year TS2606 rose 0.04% [1] - On Monday, the Wind All - A index opened lower, rebounded after hitting the bottom in the morning, fluctuated narrowly in the afternoon, and closed with a small positive line, up 0.05%, with a trading volume of 1.93 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the previous trading day's 1.86 trillion yuan [2] Important Information - The central bank conducted 269.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with 8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 261.5 billion yuan [1] - On Monday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% throughout the day, compared with 1.32% in the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.43%, compared with 1.44% in the previous trading day [1] - On Monday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bond cash bonds declined compared with the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield dropped 2.92 BP to 1.27%, the 5 - year dropped 2.37 BP to 1.53%, the 10 - year dropped 1.09 BP to 1.81%, and the 30 - year dropped 2.11 BP to 2.33% [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that energy shocks are usually short - lived, and the central bank's standard response is to "wait patiently for them to subside on their own." The policy is currently in a favorable position to wait and see how the current situation develops, and private credit does not currently have the conditions to evolve into a more widespread systemic event [1] - Iran's parliament approved the collection of tolls for the Strait, to be paid in the Iranian local currency. An Israeli refinery in Haifa caught fire after a missile attack, and Trump said a response would "come soon." Trump is in serious negotiations with Iran, and if the negotiations break down, he will destroy Iran's energy, power facilities, and Kharg Island. Iran said the US request is illogical and will not participate in a war - related meeting led by Pakistan [1] Market Logic - From January to February this year, industrial enterprises above a designated size achieved operating income of 20.84 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%, and a total profit of 1.02456 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. In the first two months, the growth of industrial enterprise income and profit was good. The growth rates of fixed - asset investment, export, and social retail sales in the first two months all exceeded market expectations, and the growth of industrial added value of enterprises above a designated size also exceeded expectations. The year - on - year growth rate of the service industry production index rebounded compared with December last year [1] - The new - home sales area continued to decline significantly year - on - year, and the second - hand housing sales price continued to decline month - on - month. The real - estate market is still in the process of bottom - seeking [2] - On March 18, the enlarged meeting of the central bank's Party committee pointed out that according to changes in the economic and financial situation and macro - economic operation, it will guide and regulate the interest rate level to promote the low - level operation of the social comprehensive financing cost [2] Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2]

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, 1 - year historical percentiles, and all - time historical percentiles of stock index futures spreads including IF, IH, IC, and IM, as well as cross - variety ratios [1]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Spot - Futures Spread**: IF spot - futures spread is - 77.95, down 2.78 from the previous day, with 1 - year and all - time percentiles of 3.20% and 2.30% respectively; IH is - 22.91, down 3.03, with 10.60% and 5.70%; IC is - 193.12, down 14.71, with 2.80% and 0.30%; IM is - 258.53, down 36.02, with 15.00% and 0.60% [1]. - **Cross - Period Spread**: Different cross - period spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided, showing their latest values, changes, and percentiles [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratio**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 500/SSE 50, etc. are presented, along with their changes and percentiles [1]. Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report shows the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing of basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of treasury bond futures [5]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Basis**: TS basis is 1.0707, up 0.0606, with a 7.00% percentile since listing; TF is 1.0953, up 0.0940, with 25.50%; T is 1.1640, down 0.0059, with 39.10%; TL is 0.5152, up 0.0568, with 19.30% [5]. - **Cross - Period Spread**: Cross - period spreads for TS, TF, T, and TL are given, including their latest values, changes, and percentiles [5]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc. are presented, along with their changes and percentiles [5]. Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report provides domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals, and gives investment suggestions [6]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic AU2606 contract closed at 1014.88 yuan/gram, up 1.62%; AG2606 at 17707 yuan/kg, up 1.25%. Foreign COMEX gold closed at 4540.40, up 1.13%; COMEX silver at 70.18, up 0.59% [6]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold is 4513.52, up 0.45%; London silver is 70.04, up 0.45%. Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D is 1008.96 yuan/gram, up 1.66%; silver T + D is 17560 yuan/kg, up 0.53% [6]. - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is - 5.92, up 0.29, with a 46.10% 1 - year percentile; silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract is - 147, down 125, with 60.60% [6]. - **Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver is 64.70, up 0.54%; Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver is 57.32, up 0.37% [6]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.35%, down 2.0%; 2 - year is 3.82%, down 1.5%. US dollar index is 100.51, up 0.33% [6]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory is 106644 kg, unchanged; COMEX gold inventory is 31536505, down 0.56%. SPDR gold ETF position is 1046, down 0.33%; SLV silver ETF position is 15288, down 0.79% [6]. - **Investment Suggestions**: For gold, try to buy call options when the price drops below 4400 dollars. For silver, sell call options above 19000 yuan. For platinum and palladium, platinum fluctuates between 1850 - 2000 dollars, palladium between 1450 - 1600 dollars, and try to buy platinum at low prices [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on steel is on the stronger side. The market is in a state of shock and consolidation. Currently, there are many repetitions in overseas geopolitical issues, and the problem of crude oil navigation has not been clearly resolved. If the game time continues to be prolonged, it will have a greater impact on oil supply, which will then be transmitted to related substitutes such as coal. Recently, countries exporting various minerals have seen varying degrees of decline in the available days of diesel, so attention should be paid to the production of overseas raw material ends. Fundamentally, hot metal is slowly recovering. The total output of five types of finished steel products has decreased slightly month - on - month, inventory is seasonally decreasing, and apparent demand is rising. Rebar production has decreased and inventory has decreased, while hot - rolled coil production has increased and inventory has decreased. In the short term, it is mainly weakly stable. The first round of coke price increase has been implemented. The profits of long - process steel mills in the spot market are average, and the profits of short - process steel mills during off - peak hours have slightly rebounded. Currently, there is sector rotation, and the black sector is still in the bottom range. It is recommended to pay attention to opportunities in related low - valued varieties [3]. - The view on the month spread is neutral. The 5 - 10 month spread of rebar is - 27 yuan/ton, and it is in a low - level shock [3]. - The view on steel mill profits is on the stronger side. This week, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises is 43.29%, slightly rising month - on - month, but still significantly lower than the same period last year [3][13]. - The view on scrap steel is neutral. According to calculations, the current marginal cost of electric arc furnace steel mills in East China results in a loss of 97 yuan/ton during peak hours and a profit of 9 yuan/ton during off - peak hours [3]. - The view on finished steel inventory is neutral. The overall inventory of five types of finished steel products is seasonally increasing [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Production - As of March 27, 2026, the daily average pig iron output is 231.09 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.9 tons, lower than the same period last year. According to Mysteel research data, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 enterprises nationwide this week is 81.03%, seasonally rising month - on - month; the capacity utilization rate of 85 electric arc furnaces is 58.87%, significantly rising month - on - month and higher than the same period last year [13]. - This week, the total output of five major varieties is 839.58 tons, a decrease of 0.24 tons compared with last week. Among them, the rebar output is 197.87 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.46 tons; the hot - rolled coil output is 305.61 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 5.4 tons. The output of cold - rolled and medium - thick plates is significantly higher than the historical average [19]. 3.2 Demand - In terms of demand, the total consumption of five major varieties this week is 887.97 tons, seasonally rising month - on - month. The weekly consumption of rebar is 225.37 tons, a slight month - on - month increase. The consumption of hot - rolled coils is 313.63 tons, a slight month - on - month increase [36]. - After the holiday, the spot trading volume is weakly stable, and the overall trading volume is lower than the same period last year. Attention should be paid to the subsequent recovery [53]. 3.3 Inventory - This week, the billet inventory of 55 billet - rolling factories is 72.75 tons, slightly decreasing month - on - month, but still much higher than the same period last year. The billet inventory in mainstream warehouses is 250.23 tons, slightly decreasing month - on - month, and it is still at the highest level in the same historical period [71]. 3.4 Valuation - Rebar warehouse receipts have increased significantly but are still lower than the same period last year. Hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts have increased significantly month - on - month and are at a historical high [106]. 3.5 Balance Sheet - The monthly balance sheet of crude steel shows various data from July 2025 to September 2026, including initial and final inventories of steel mills and society, pig iron and crude steel production, import and export volumes, total consumption, production - demand differences, excess volumes, year - on - year changes in production and consumption, and cumulative year - on - year changes in production and consumption [107].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - In Q1 2026, the global nickel and stainless - steel markets showed a co - existence of an upward - shifted valuation center and wide - range fluctuations. The core contradiction in the industry chain was the all - around tightening of Indonesian nickel ore policies, leading to a supply structural reversal and damaged production stability [1]. - In Q2 2026, the biggest potential variable in the market is the actual approval progress of Indonesian nickel ore quotas and marginal policy adjustments. The nickel policy in Indonesia still has certain bullish support for the bottom center in Q2. The cost bottom is significantly lifted due to the proposed export tariff and windfall tax on nickel. In Q2, Indonesia and the Philippines will gradually emerge from the rainy season, and the downstream production will increase. The shortage of sulfur in the hydrometallurgical process may have an impact as early as Q2. Macro - level factors such as the development of the US - Iran war and the release of US core data need to be continuously monitored [2]. - In Q2 2026, it is relatively difficult for stainless steel to have a significant independent market. The key lies in the de - stocking during the traditional consumption peak season and the transmission of macro - policies. If the terminal procurement orders are effectively released and drive the high - level social inventory into a continuous de - stocking channel, the spot price may rise moderately under cost support. Overall, the stainless - steel market in Q2 will be range - bound between 13,000 and 14,500 yuan/ton, following the guidance of Shanghai nickel and macro - level factors [2][4]. - It is expected that the core fluctuation range of the main Shanghai nickel contract in Q2 will be between 130,000 and 150,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Q1 Market Review - In Q1, the market price was strongly pushed up by a series of strong logics. From late November last year to late January, the market pricing was unilaterally dominated by the "strong expectation" of a significant contraction in Indonesian supply. The expected RKAB quota in 2026 was 250 - 260 million tons, about 30% lower than that in 2025. With the Shanghai nickel price hitting a low of 110,000 yuan, the market price soared. LME nickel broke through the resistance level of $18,785/ton, and the main Shanghai nickel contract reached a high of 152,000 yuan/ton [10]. - From February to the end of the quarter, the sharp rise driven by sentiment and supply - side contraction expectations encountered strong resistance from the real fundamentals. During the traditional off - season around the Chinese Spring Festival, the mid - and downstream had low acceptance of raw materials, and the refined nickel inventory increased due to sufficient profits. The large amount of visible inventory and the damaged downstream transmission mechanism led to a stalemate in the spot market. After the festival, as the news of expanding production by allowing some compliant mining enterprises to increase quotas came out, the bullish sentiment cooled down, and the market fluctuated around 136,000 yuan with strong policy support at the bottom [10][11]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Performance 3.2.1 Nickel Ore - In Q1, the premium of the nickel ore end was the core driver for the cost increase of the entire nickel industry chain. The expectation of quota reduction had a profound impact, and the panic about quota issuance exceeded the actual impact on production. The price of Indonesian nickel ore continued to rise, and some Indonesian projects imported from the Philippines, pushing up the raw material cost. The market was in a situation of weak supply and demand due to the rainy season in the Philippines and the pre - holiday stocking in the Chinese market. The strategic intention of Indonesia's quota reduction was to control the quantity and raise the price to strengthen its global pricing power [15][16]. - In Q2, the nickel ore production and port shipments in the Philippines are expected to increase seasonally. The nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports is likely to stabilize and rebound. However, the mining cost in Indonesia and the Philippines has increased, and the scarcity of high - grade nickel ore has intensified. The approval of RKAB in Indonesia is expected to speed up, and the panic in the ore market may be alleviated. The nickel ore price will remain high, forming a solid cost base for the industry chain [17]. 3.2.2 Ferronickel - In Q1, the ferronickel market had a significant cost - driven upward trend. The strong expectation of reduced ore supply was quickly transmitted to the ferronickel end, pushing up the price. Affected by the tightened supply of nickel ore from Indonesia and the Philippines, the cash cost of ferronickel smelting enterprises increased sharply, and the production in China and Indonesia declined. The import volume of Indonesian ferronickel decreased, and traders continued to raise prices. At the same time, the substitution economy of scrap stainless steel increased [22]. - In Q2, the ferronickel market will enter a complex stage of two - way supply - demand game. The supply is expected to increase marginally as the nickel ore shipments from the Philippines recover seasonally and the quota approval in Indonesia speeds up. However, the demand is uncertain as the downstream stainless - steel market has difficulty supporting high raw material prices, and the cost advantage of scrap stainless steel over ferronickel is prominent. The ferronickel price is strongly supported by high - cost raw materials, but it is difficult to break through further [23]. 3.2.3 Nickel Sulfate and Intermediates - In Q1, the nickel sulfate and related intermediate product market was frequently disturbed, but the industry maintained a production - based - on - sales operation mode. The supply was restricted by the tightened nickel ore quota in Indonesia and a safety accident in the wet - smelting park. The market supply of intermediate products was extremely tight, and the discount coefficient of MHP to LME nickel remained high. On the demand side, some domestic battery and ternary precursor enterprises rushed to export, driving up the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate [32]. - In Q2, the supply of nickel sulfate and intermediates faces uncertainties due to the potential impact of the Middle - East geopolitical situation on sulfur imports. The demand may decline as the impulse demand from pre - export rush fades. The price transmission from the upstream cost increase to the terminal may be limited. The long - term impact of the trade agreement between Indonesia and the US on Chinese enterprises in Indonesia needs to be continuously monitored [32][34][35]. 3.2.4 Stainless Steel - In Q1, the stainless - steel market had limited independent trends, and the price followed the fluctuations of Shanghai nickel and Indonesian policy disturbances. The price increase driven by cost was not effectively supported by terminal demand. Due to the Spring Festival and the traditional off - season, the price transmission to the terminal was difficult, and the inventory accumulated. Only after the mid - March resumption of work in the mid - and downstream did the inventory start to decline [40]. - In Q2, the key is the de - stocking rate during the "Golden March and Silver April" consumption peak season and the acceptance of the current price by the downstream. If the terminal demand is effectively stimulated, the spot price may rise. However, the stainless - steel export still faces trade barriers. The price bottom is firm, but whether it can stabilize above 14,200 yuan depends on the demand [40]. 3.3 Q2 Balance Explanation - On the supply side, the core logic in Q2 is the bottleneck in the RKAB quota issuance in Indonesia and the multiple uncertainties in raw material supply. The new digital quota approval system in Indonesia has led to a long approval time, and the actual approved nickel ore volume is far lower than expected. The impact of the US - Iran conflict on sulfur imports may cause production cuts or shutdowns in the Indonesian wet - smelting industry as early as April [52][53]. - On the demand side, Q2 is the traditional peak consumption season for the stainless - steel industry. The recovery of terminal demand is the core. The demand in the real - estate sector is still weak, but the home - appliance sector is recovering as expected. Steel mills may rush to replenish inventory if the price is appropriate. In the new - energy field, the sales of new - energy vehicles usually pick up after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, and the price of nickel sulfate is supported by seasonal demand and strong cost [54].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report presents the market liquidity situation of various sectors on March 30, 2026, including trading volume, position amount, and trading - position ratio, as well as their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Plate Liquidity - The report provides figures on the trading - position ratio, trading volume change rate, position amount, and trading volume of each sector, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [1][2][8] 2. Stock Index Plate - On March 30, 2026, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 756.485 billion yuan, a +3.62% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 1424.617 billion yuan, a - 0.78% change; the trading - position ratio was 52.49%. There are also figures on the price change, trading - position ratio, and capital precipitation of each variety in the plate [1][19] 3. Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 363.116 billion yuan, a +25.00% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 881.150 billion yuan, a +3.08% change; the trading - position ratio was 39.90%. There are also figures on the price change, trading - position ratio, and capital precipitation of each variety in the plate [1][20] 4. Basic Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - The trading volume of the basic metals plate was 504.438 billion yuan, a +0.55% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 613.489 billion yuan, a +2.06% change; the trading - position ratio was 88.19%. The trading volume of the precious metals plate was 926.869 billion yuan, a +19.72% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 405.201 billion yuan, a +4.20% change; the trading - position ratio was 283.94%. There are also figures on the price change, trading - position ratio, and capital precipitation of each variety in the plate [1][33] 5. Energy and Chemical Plate - The trading volume of the energy and chemical plate was 1008.309 billion yuan, a +8.59% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 579.087 billion yuan, a +2.05% change; the trading - position ratio was 172.26%. There are also figures on the price change, trading - position ratio, and capital precipitation of each main variety in the plate [1][37] 6. Agricultural Products Plate - The trading volume of the agricultural products plate was 386.913 billion yuan, a +10.57% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 664.074 billion yuan, a +0.07% change; the trading - position ratio was 53.35%. There are also figures on the price change, trading - position ratio, and capital precipitation of each main variety in the plate [1][53] 7. Black Building Materials Plate - The trading volume of the black building materials plate was 191.591 billion yuan, a - 3.06% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 339.296 billion yuan, a +0.48% change; the trading - position ratio was 52.39%. There are also figures on the price change, trading - position ratio, and capital precipitation of each variety in the plate [2][56]