Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, cotton prices showed a short - term oscillatory decline. Although there was a short - term agreement in Sino - US negotiations and the subsequent export tariff to the US was reduced by 10%, the peak season for foreign trade orders has passed. The poor textile export data in October also contributed to the decline. However, due to cost support, the downside space is limited. It is currently an opportunity for medium - to - long - term long positions to enter the market at low prices and layout far - month contracts [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day Review No specific content for this part was found in the provided text. 3.2 Daily Prompt No specific content for this part was found in the provided text. 3.3 Today's Focus No specific content for this part was found in the provided text. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Production and Consumption Forecasts**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton production and consumption. For example, ICAC's 11 - month report shows a production of 25.4 million tons and consumption of 25 million tons; USDA's 9 - month report indicates a production of 25.622 million tons, consumption of 25.872 million tons, and an ending inventory of 15.925 million tons; the Rural Ministry's November forecast shows a production of 6.6 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.45 million tons [4]. - **Export and Import Data**: In October, textile and clothing exports were $22.262 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 12.63%. In September, China imported 1 million tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%, and imported 1.3 million tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 18.18% [4]. - **Market Influencing Factors**: - **Positive Factors**: The purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased, and the commercial inventory is lower than the same period last year. The export tariff to the US has been reduced by 10% [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Overall foreign trade orders have declined, inventory has increased, new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and it is currently the traditional off - season for consumption [6]. 3.5 Position Data No specific content for this part was found in the provided text.

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The pressure of new cotton listings still suppresses cotton futures prices. The overall market shows a weak trend, with cotton spot trading being light, and the cotton textile industry in a traditional off - season with cautious market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Cotton Futures Data - **Prices and Changes**: The closing price of CF2601 was 13,450 yuan/ton, down 0.30%, and the night - session closing price was 13,445 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. The closing price of CY2601 was 19,695 yuan/ton, down 0.48%, and the night - session closing price was 19,710 yuan/ton, up 0.08%. The price of ICE US cotton 3 was 64.14 cents/pound, down 0.68% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CF2601 was 210,406 lots, an increase of 6,629 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 918,018 lots, a decrease of 24,420 lots. The trading volume of CY2601 was 13,433 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 23,504 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 4,401, an increase of 221, and the effective forecast was 643, a decrease of 235. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 28, a decrease of 2, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 30 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Cotton Spot Prices**: The price of northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,454 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or - 0.28% compared to the previous day; the price of southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,393 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or - 0.28%. The prices in Shandong and Hebei also showed slight declines [1]. - **Yarn Spot Prices**: The price of pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 20,490 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the arrival price was 21,100 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan or - 0.18% [1]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot Situation**: Cotton spot trading was light, and sales basis was mostly stable, with a decrease in low - basis goods. The one - price quotes for northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (2025/26, 3129/29B, impurity within 3.5) were above 14,550 yuan/ton, and the point - price basis was mostly above CF01 + 1050. The mainstream lower sales basis for southern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (2025/26, 3129/29 - 30B, impurity within 3) was between CF01 + 900 and 1050 [1][2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises Situation**: Pure cotton yarn trading was light, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment. Downstream markets focused on shipments, and spinning mills' sales slowed down, with inventory slightly increasing. The all - cotton grey fabric market had a differentiated trading situation, with clothing grey fabric sales being flat and home textile grey fabric sales continuing. Orders were mainly inquiries for export orders, and the increase in domestic spring - summer orders was limited [1][2]. - **US Cotton Situation**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures fell below the October low because the US Department of Agriculture raised the production and ending inventory estimates of US cotton for the 2025/26 season [1][2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [- 2, 2] interval, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is in a phase of fluctuating downward, and the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The short - term situation is that during the new cotton listing and harvest period, the new cotton output exceeds expectations, and although it is the demand peak season, downstream orders are less than expected, which may put pressure on cotton prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the global cotton supply - demand pattern is loose, domestic output may reach a recent high, and demand growth is insufficient, so the cotton price is expected to run at a low level. Therefore, in the short - term, the cotton price is weakening, and the operation strategy should be to sell short on rallies [2]. - For different participants in the industrial chain, corresponding hedging operations are proposed. For example, for those worried about rising cotton prices, they can buy call options; for those worried about falling cotton prices, they can sell futures for hedging [2]. - Attention should be paid to data such as US cotton exports and USDA report data [2]. Summary by Directory Global Cotton Supply - Demand Situation - In the 2024/25 season, global cotton production is expected to increase, consumption has recovered to some extent, and the ending inventory has increased. In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production remains at a relatively high level, demand is stable, and the ending inventory is expected to decrease slightly. The USDA September report shows that in 2024/26, the global output is 2595.7 tons, consumption is 2544.2 tons, and the ending inventory is 1612.6 tons; in 2025/26, the output is 2562.2 tons, consumption is 2581.2 tons, and the ending inventory is 1592.5 tons [56][57]. - In Brazil, the new - season production forecast remains high. The 2024/26 season's total production is expected to be 407.7 tons, and in 2025/26, it is expected to be 402.8 tons, with a slight decrease in the planting area [63]. - In India, although the area of unginned cotton has decreased this year and there have been local rainfall disasters, the production is expected to be relatively optimistic, ranging from 300 - 570 tons [63]. - In the US, in the 2024/25 season, the cotton planting area increased, the harvested area increased significantly, but the yield per unit decreased due to drought, and the production increased. In the 2025/26 season, the planting area decreased, the harvested area increased, the yield per unit is expected to decline, and the production is expected to decrease. The US textile and clothing demand has recovered to some extent, but the subsequent demand still needs to be tracked. The US cotton export sales progress is slow [63]. Domestic Cotton Supply - Demand Situation - In terms of production, in 2024, the cotton planting area decreased slightly, but the yield per unit was good, and the production reached a recent high. It is expected that the production in Xinjiang may be about 6.4 million tons, and the national production is expected to be about 6.85 million tons, a 13.8% increase from the previous year. In 2025, the intended planting area increased, and the weather in the producing areas was generally good, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. As of November 10, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 98.5% [17][22]. - In terms of inventory, last year's cotton imports decreased significantly, and the commercial inventory decreased significantly. After entering the new season, with the listing of new cotton, the inventory quickly recovered. As of the end of October 2025, the cotton commercial inventory was 2.9306 million tons, a decrease of 1.9089 million tons from the previous month; the industrial inventory was 0.8882 million tons, a decrease of 0.0427 million tons from the previous month [20][23]. - In terms of imports, the domestic cotton production and sales have a certain gap, and imports are needed to supplement the supply. In 2025, the sliding - scale tariff quota was issued, but the quantity was low, and the import increase in the fourth quarter is expected to be limited. In 2026, the 1% tariff quota is 894,000 tons. According to the results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, China has lowered the import tariff on US cotton by 15%, but still retains a 10% additional tariff [30]. - In terms of downstream demand, overseas interest - rate cut rhythms are still variable, but the Sino - US economic and trade consultations are progressing smoothly, and trade policy disturbances have eased. Domestic policies are strengthening to boost the economy, but the demand recovery still needs to be tracked. Downstream orders are insufficient, textile enterprises' finished - product inventories are higher than the same period last year, the operating load is at a low level, and the industrial chain is under great pressure. Textile and clothing exports have decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, while retail data has performed well [37]. Policy - Reserve Rotation - The state adjusts the cotton market supply and demand through policies such as national reserve cotton rotation to stabilize cotton prices. In 2023, the national reserve cotton rotation out started on July 31 and ended on November 14, effectively supplementing market supply and ensuring the stable operation of the cotton market. In 2025, the planned rotation out was 1.2121 million tons, the actual成交 was 0.8639 million tons, the成交 rate was 71.27%, and the average成交 price was 17,430.49 yuan/ton [46][47]. Price Difference and Basis - The report presents data on cotton spreads such as 1 - 5 spreads, 9 - 1 spreads, 5 - 9 spreads, and basis data for different contracts (01, 05, 09), which can help analyze the market structure and price relationships [69][74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - Cotton futures prices are slightly falling due to a lack of upward - driving factors. The cotton market shows different trends in different segments, with domestic cotton spot having good trading but the cotton - textile market being sluggish, and ICE cotton futures continuing to decline [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,515 yuan/ton yesterday with a - 0.33% daily increase, and its overnight closing price was 13475 yuan/ton with a - 0.30% to - 0.20% overnight increase. CY2601 closed at 19,790 yuan/ton yesterday with a - 0.33% daily increase, and its overnight closing price was 19750 yuan/ton. ICE cotton futures closed at 64.82 cents/pound yesterday with a - 0.93% daily increase. The trading volume of CF2601 was 381,126 lots, an increase of 181,748 compared to the previous day, and its position was 941,724 lots, a decrease of 5,344. The trading volume of CY2601 was 14,275 lots, a decrease of 1,999, and its position was 24,392 lots, an increase of 1,045 [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 3,884, an increase of 265, and the effective forecast was 1,135, a decrease of 19. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 31, an increase of 12, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 7 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,484 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan compared to the previous day with a - 0.34% change. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,418 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan with a - 0.28% change. The price in Shandong was 14,878 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan with a 0.09% change. The price in Hebei was 14,873 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan with a 0.02% change. The 3128B index was 14,851 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan with a 0.06% change. The international cotton index: M: CNCottonM was 73.04 cents/pound, a decrease of 1 cent with a - 0.94% change. The price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 20,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan with a - 0.15% change. The arrival price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 21,203 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan with a - 0.03% change [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread was - 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 compared to the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading is good, and the overall basis is stable. The mainstream lower sales basis of 2025/26 Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurities within 3 is CF01 + 900 - 1050, and for 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurities within 3.5, it is mostly CF01 + 900 and above [2] - **Domestic Cotton - Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is still sluggish, with new orders being weak. Due to the weakening of seasonal rigid demand, traders and downstream weavers are cautious in purchasing. The price of pure - cotton yarn is generally stable [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures continued to fall yesterday, approaching the October low again, affected by the decline in crude oil and the market's cautious attitude towards the US Department of Agriculture's monthly supply - demand report [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - ICE cotton lacks upward momentum and is affected by the weakening risk appetite in the US financial market and concerns about US cotton exports. Attention should be paid to the USDA's monthly supply - demand report on November 14. Domestic cotton futures show narrow - range fluctuations. With the end of seed cotton procurement, the market focus returns to supply and demand. Currently, there is no new upward driver for cotton futures and spot prices. In the short term, the large - scale listing of new cotton and strong hedging intentions of ginning factories limit the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton futures, while high basis and relatively low absolute prices support it, which may be more obvious closer to the delivery month. So, it is judged that Zhengzhou cotton futures will maintain a volatile trend [1][19] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Data - ICE Cotton Main Contract: Open price was 65.85 cents/lb, high was 66.04 cents/lb, low was 63.52 cents/lb, close was 63.55 cents/lb, down 2.01 cents/lb or 3.07%. Volume was 171,365 lots, an increase of 18,228 lots. Open interest was 130,046 lots, a decrease of 12,147 lots [4] - Zhengzhou Cotton Main Contract: Open price was 13,590 yuan/ton, high was 13,640 yuan/ton, low was 13,455 yuan/ton, close was 13,580 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 0.11%. Volume was 966,651 lots, an increase of 87,190 lots. Open interest was 576,279 lots, a decrease of 1,862 lots [4] - Cotton Yarn Main Contract: Open price was 19,855 yuan/ton, high was 19,950 yuan/ton, low was 19,710 yuan/ton, close was 19,850 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 0.13%. Volume was 57,764 lots, a decrease of 7,615 lots. Open interest was 25,042 lots, an increase of 1,616 lots [4] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. International Cotton Situation - ICE Cotton: It gave back the gains of the past two weeks and fell back to around 63.5 cents/lb, affected by the weakening risk appetite in the US financial market and persistent concerns about US cotton exports [5] - US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data: Due to the US government shutdown, the USDA's weekly export sales data stopped being issued [6] - Other Major Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries: - India: Seed cotton listing volume is still less than the same period last year. Cotton fields in many states are affected by rainfall, and the moisture content of recently arrived cotton is high, not meeting the purchase standards of the Cotton Corporation of India. The estimated daily arrival of seed cotton is 69,000 - 93,000 bales, lower than the previous year [7] - Brazil: The area of new - season main - producing areas may decline. The IMEA maintains the cotton production forecast for the state of Mato Grosso in the 2025/26 season at 2.62 million tons, a 2.6% increase from the previous season, but the planting area is expected to be 1.46 million hectares (a 5.7% decrease). Due to rising production costs and low lint prices, farmers' planting willingness is insufficient. The soybean sowing progress is behind that of 2024, and uneven rainfall may affect crop growth and the planting window of second - season cotton [7] - Pakistan: Cotton import demand is very limited. The estimated cotton production this year is about 6.5 - 7 million bales. Most factories focus on domestic cotton procurement, and many spinning enterprises choose to wait and see. Domestic yarn demand has not improved, and factories face liquidity problems. Yarn export business is also sluggish [8] - Bangladesh: In October, clothing exports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Cotton import trade was moderate this week, and spinning enterprises actively replenished stocks. However, the yarn and textile industries still face problems such as unstable energy supply, weak demand, and narrow profit margins. The upcoming general election may cause turmoil and affect business operations and export orders. The impact of the cargo fire at Dhaka Airport in October is still ongoing [9] - Turkey: Cotton import demand is average. Yarn enterprises are under continuous operating pressure, with some operating rates dropping to 50%. Yarn orders grow slowly, and currently, spinning enterprises generally purchase cotton only according to recent demand. In September, raw cotton imports were more than 53,000 tons, a 32% decrease from August but a 23% increase from the same period last year. Exports from August - September were 21,000 tons, a 26% year - on - year increase [11] - Southeast Asian Textile Industry Operating Rates: As of the week of November 7, the operating rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 67%, 61%, and 65% respectively [11] 3.2.2. Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton Spot Price: It is basically stable, and low - basis transactions are good. There is still pressure on the spot market, and some cotton merchants have lowered the spot basis. The mainstream basis range is stable, but low - basis offers have increased [12] - Cotton Warehouse Receipts: As of November 7, there were 3,013 registered warehouse receipts and 1,559 pending warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 4,572 receipts, equivalent to 192,024 tons [13] - Downstream Situation: The pure - cotton yarn market is not in a typical off - season. This week, the demand for varieties is clearly differentiated, with the demand for air - jet spun low - count yarn weakening and that for high - tight 40 - count and high - count yarns being okay. Overall, Xinjiang orders are better than those in the inland. Cotton yarn prices fluctuate, and the overall price center changes little. The overall operating rate has increased slightly, and the inventory remains stable. The theoretical cash flow of spinning enterprises has improved. The sales atmosphere in the cotton greige fabric market has improved in some areas, shipments have increased, and factory inventories have decreased. Export orders have increased in inquiries, but it is still waiting for order confirmation. The market confidence is still insufficient [14] 3.3. Basic Data Charts - Charts include Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory (weekly), spinning enterprises' cotton inventory (weekly), weaving enterprises' yarn inventory (weekly), spinning enterprises' cotton yarn inventory (weekly), cotton cloth enterprises' cotton cloth inventory (weekly), cotton yarn enterprises' operating rate (weekly), cotton cloth enterprises' operating rate (weekly), pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton cloth CGC32 profit, cotton 1 - 5 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [16][17][18] 3.4. Operation Suggestions - Maintain the judgment that Zhengzhou cotton futures will be in a volatile trend [19]

Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Picking Nears End, Cotton Prices to Fluctuate [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The international cotton market, especially the US cotton market, is expected to move sideways due to limited fundamental changes [8]. - The domestic cotton market is likely to oscillate slightly on the stronger side in the short - term. Although there is selling hedging pressure with new cotton hitting the market, the expected increase in production may be lower than previously thought, and the positive outcome of recent Sino - US trade negotiations has been factored into the market [25][42] Summary by Directory Part I: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: The fundamentals remain stable, and the market is expected to move sideways. As of the week ending October 31, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 732,700 tons, accounting for 23.3% of the estimated annual production, 22% slower year - on - year. The weekly and quarterly deliverable ratios are 80.7% and 78.6% respectively, with the quarterly ratio up slightly. As of September 18, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton decreased by 54%, and the weekly shipment volume increased by 14% [8]. - **Pakistan**: As of October 15, 2025, the cumulative new cotton market volume in the 2025/26 season reached 588,000 tons, a 22% year - on - year increase [8]. - **Brazil**: The IMEA maintains the 2025/26 cotton production forecast in Mato Grosso at 2.62 million tons, a 2.6% increase from the previous season. However, due to rising production costs and low lint prices, farmers' planting willingness is insufficient [8]. - **India**: The CAI's assessment of the 2024/25 cotton balance sheet remains stable compared to the previous month. The market expects the 2025/26 production to be between 5.525 and 5.61 million tons [8]. - **Global**: According to the latest September forecast by the USDA, the global cotton production in September was 25.62 million tons, an increase of 230,000 tons month - on - month; total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons; and ending stocks decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [8] Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: New cotton procurement is nearing completion, and prices are stable. The cost of new cotton is fixed, providing support. As of November 6, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 6.26 yuan/kg, and the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 6.98 yuan/kg, both unchanged from the previous day. The total number of Zhengzhou cotton registered warrants and effective forecasts was 4,281, equivalent to 171,200 tons of cotton [25]. - **Demand Side**: As of November 6, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 65.4%, a 0.3% decrease from the previous week. The spinning mills' cotton inventory was 27.20 days. Although some factories increased their procurement of new cotton, most spinning mills remained on the sidelines [25] Option Strategy - The volatility decreased slightly. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7324, and the trading volume PCR was 0.5889. It is recommended to wait and see [39] Futures Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: The US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to move sideways [42]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [42] Part II: Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal and External Price Difference**: Charts show the historical trends of the internal - external cotton price difference and the 9 - 1 price difference [45][46]. - **Mid - stream Situation**: Data on the operating load of pure cotton yarn mills, full - cotton grey fabric mills, and the inventory days of yarn and grey fabric are presented [49]. - **Cotton Inventory**: The table shows the historical data of national commercial cotton inventory, industrial cotton inventory of spinning mills, and reserve inventory [51]. - **Spot - Futures Basis**: Charts display the basis trends of cotton in January, May, and September, as well as the basis of US cotton and the basis between cotton yarn spot and Zhengzhou cotton yarn active contracts [54]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2601) decreased slightly, with a weekly decline of about 0.11%. The price of the December contract of US cotton also dropped, with a weekly decline of about 1.42%. The price of the 2601 contract of cotton yarn futures decreased by about 0.13% [6][14][23]. - In the US cotton - growing areas, limited rainfall is beneficial for harvesting. The release of the monthly supply - demand report next week may guide the market. In the domestic market, the picking and purchasing progress of Xinjiang cotton has accelerated, and the purchasing price has slightly decreased. The commercial inventory is gradually rising, and the inventory of imported cotton has significantly increased. The spinning processing profit has slightly improved, but new orders are still limited [6]. - Overall, the pressure of new cotton listing is increasing, but the lower - than - expected yield per unit in Xinjiang cotton supports the cotton market. The downstream demand is weak, but the tariff reduction is beneficial for cotton - textile exports, which also provides some support [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main 2601 contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased slightly this week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: In the US, limited rainfall in cotton - growing areas is good for harvesting. In China, the supply side shows that the cotton picking and purchasing in Xinjiang have accelerated, and the commercial inventory is rising. The demand side indicates that the spinning profit has improved slightly, but new orders are limited. The new cotton listing pressure is increasing, but the lower - than - expected yield per unit in Xinjiang cotton and tariff reduction for exports provide support [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the 2601 contract of Zhengzhou cotton, short - term observation is recommended [7]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to the price change of foreign cotton, demand, and inventory [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the December contract of US cotton decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.42% [14]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the 2601 contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased slightly, and the 2601 contract of cotton yarn futures also declined. As of this week, the top 20 net positions of cotton futures were - 113,261 lots, and those of cotton yarn futures were - 91 lots. The warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's cotton futures were 3,013 sheets, and those of cotton yarn futures were 6 sheets [23][28][30]. - **Spot Market**: As of November 7, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,859 yuan/ton. The national purchase price of seed cotton 3128B was 3.21 yuan/500 grams, and that in Xinjiang was 3.5 yuan/500 grams. The spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,520 yuan/ton [42][45][57]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of November 6, the sliding - duty price of imported cotton was 14,096 yuan/ton, a decrease of 106 yuan/ton from last week; the quota price was 13,196 yuan/ton, a decrease of 172 yuan/ton from last week. The profit estimates of imported cotton with sliding - duty and quota were 724 yuan/ton and 1,624 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase from last week [61][64]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: At the end of September, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.0217 million tons, a decrease of 798,500 tons from the previous month. The in - stock industrial inventory of textile enterprises was 846,000 tons, an increase of 61,000 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 46,000 tons month - on - month. In September 2025, China's cotton import volume was about 100,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons or 16.6% year - on - year [69][76]. - **Mid - end Industry**: As of October 15, 2025, the yarn inventory days were 25.24 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.57%; the inventory days of grey cloth were 31.43 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.00% [79]. - **Terminal Consumption**: In September 2025, China's textile and clothing export volume was 24.4197 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.50% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.99%. As of September 30, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 1.06127 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 12.90% [84][88]. 3.4. Options and Stock Market - related Market - **Options Market**: There is information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options of cotton this week, but no specific data is summarized in the text [89]. - **Stock Market**: There is a chart of the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinong Development, but no specific analysis is provided [92].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年11月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA9月报：25/26年度 产量2562.2万吨，消费2587.2万吨，期末库存1592.5万吨。海关：9月纺织品服装出口244.2 亿美元，同比下降1.4%。9月份我国棉花进口10万吨，同比减少18.7%；棉纱进口13万吨，同 比增加18.18%。农村部10月25/26年度：产量636万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期末库 存822万吨。中性。 6：预期：目前新棉逐步上市，产量可能比之前预估有所减少。对美出口关税比前期降 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report has a bearish view on the cotton industry and suggests investors look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound of the CF2601 contract [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The core view is bearish. The upward movement of seed cotton purchase prices and low commercial inventory support the market, but there is some hedging pressure above after the market rebounds. In the fourth quarter, due to the significant increase in new cotton production, the pressure of concentrated listing, and the mediocre demand performance, the price may still be dominated by a bearish outlook [3] 3. Summary Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 01 Week - ly Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: In the 2025/26 season, the US cotton production is expected to be 287.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%, with the final output estimated to be between 285 - 300 million tons. China's cotton production is expected to be 708 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The domestic production is generally expected to be 750 million tons, with the highest expectation exceeding 800 million tons, and the quality is better than last year [3] - **Demand**: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton consumption is 838 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. The domestic cotton yarn market was trading lightly this week, with spinning mills mainly making rigid - demand purchases [3] - **Inventory**: As of October 15, China's cotton commercial inventory was 172.02 million tons, an increase of 69.85 million tons from the end of September, mainly due to the increase in Xinjiang's inventory. The industrial inventory was 80.93 million tons, a decrease of 3.62 million tons from the end of September [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 30, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 2434, with 1228 valid forecasts, and the total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 14.64 million tons [3] - **Basis**: As of October 30, the spot price of Xinjiang cotton was 14,650 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main CF2601 contract was 13,600 yuan/ton, and the basis was 1,050 yuan/ton [3] - **Cost**: In 2025, the planting cost per mu increased by 100 - 200 yuan compared to 2024. The total cost per mu was between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan. The purchase price of machine - picked seed cotton in Xinjiang was approaching 6.5 yuan/kg, and the price of hand - picked cotton was stable at 7.1 - 7.2 yuan/kg [3] - **Macro - environment**: The US cancelled the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on China, and the 24% reciprocal tariff remained suspended for another year. The US government shutdown affected data release. Domestically, policies to boost demand are expected to support the medium - and long - term demand for domestic cotton [3] 3.2 02 Data Charts - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to be 25.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. Global consumption is expected to be 25.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.26% [9] - **US Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, US cotton production is expected to be 2.879 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%. Consumption remains unchanged at 370,000 tons, and exports are expected to increase slightly to 2.613 million tons [10] - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (USDA)**: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to be 7.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. Consumption is expected to be 8.38 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2% [11] - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (BCO)**: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to be 7.42 million tons. Imports are expected to increase by 13% year - on - year, and consumption is expected to decrease slightly year - on - year [12][13] - **US Cotton Weather**: As of September 26, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 47%, 16 percentage points higher than the same period last year [16] - **9 - month Xinjiang Cotton Research Conclusion**: The average yield per mu was between 460 - 470 kg. The expected purchase price of seed cotton was around 6.2 yuan/kg. The old cotton inventory in Xinjiang was at a three - year low, and most yarn mills were operating at full capacity but with narrowed profit margins [23][24][25] - **Cotton and Yarn Imports**: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 690,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 69.7%. From January to September 2025, cumulative yarn imports were 720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.2% [26][28] - **Cotton Commercial Inventory**: As of October 15, China's cotton commercial inventory was 1.7202 million tons, an increase of 0.6985 million tons from the end of September, mainly due to the increase in Xinjiang's inventory [29]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall cotton harvest progress in Xinjiang has exceeded 80%. As of October 30, 2025, the cumulative national new - year cotton notarized inspection volume was 168 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 45.95%. New cotton supply will continue to increase, pressuring cotton prices. Downstream demand is relatively flat, and cloth mills' finished products are slightly accumulating inventory. Although the Sino - US trade situation is improving, the US still imposes higher tariffs on Chinese textile and clothing exports than on Southeast Asian countries [1]. - In the short - term, the output in southern Xinjiang is lower than expected, and the new cotton purchase price is relatively firm. There is still hedging pressure around 13,600 - 13,800, and downstream demand is weak, lacking upward momentum for cotton prices. In the long - term, domestic textile production capacity has expanded significantly, increasing the rigid demand for cotton. Although domestic cotton production has increased, there is still a need to import foreign cotton, but the probability of further increasing import quotas is low, so the new - year domestic cotton supply and demand may still be tight [3][16]. - The trend of cotton prices is expected to be a wide - range shock, with the CF2601 contract in the range of 13,400 - 13,800. Short - term short - selling of CF2601 and long - term long - position layout of CF2605 at low levels are recommended. Pay attention to the CF1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity and the opportunity to widen the cotton - yarn spread [22]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply side: The overall cotton harvest progress in Xinjiang is over 80%, and new cotton supply is increasing. The purchase price in southern Xinjiang is relatively firm, while that in northern Xinjiang has slightly decreased [1]. - Demand side: Downstream load is basically stable. Some yarn mills are making price - based purchases, but overall demand is flat, and cloth mills' finished products are accumulating inventory. The US still imposes 35% - 50% tariffs on Chinese textile and clothing exports [1]. - Near - term trading logic: Southern Xinjiang's output is lower than expected, and the purchase price is firm. There is still hedging pressure around 13,600 - 13,800, and downstream demand is weak [3]. - Long - term trading logic: Domestic textile production capacity has expanded, increasing cotton demand. Although domestic production has increased, there is a need to import foreign cotton, but the probability of increasing import quotas is low, so supply and demand may be tight [16]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Market trend: Wide - range shock, with the CF2601 contract in the range of 13,400 - 13,800. - Strategy: Short - term short - selling of CF2601, long - term long - position layout of CF2605 at low levels. Pay attention to the CF1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity and the opportunity to widen the cotton - yarn spread [22]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range forecast: The monthly price range of cotton is 13,400 - 13,800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0767 and a historical 3 - year percentile of 0.153 [20]. - Risk management strategies: For inventory management, short Zhengzhou cotton futures and sell call options. For procurement management, buy Zhengzhou cotton futures and sell put options [20]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Futures data: Zhengzhou cotton 01, 05, and 09 contracts all rose slightly this week. - Spot data: CC Index 3128B, 2227B, and 2129B all rose slightly. - Spread data: CF1 - 5 spread was - 10, CF5 - 9 spread was - 150, and CF9 - 1 spread was 160. - Import price: FC Index M rose by 1.33%, and FCY Index C32s fell by 0.13%. - Yarn data: Futures and spot prices of yarn both rose slightly [21][23]. 2. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: The US canceled the 10% fentanyl tariff on Chinese goods and suspended the 24% reciprocal tariff for another year in the new round of Sino - US consultations. As of October 23, the national new cotton picking, delivery, processing, and sales rates all increased year - on - year. In September, China's clothing and textile retail sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month. In September 2025, cotton product exports and Japan's clothing imports increased [23][24]. - Negative information: As of October 15, the national commercial cotton inventory increased by 68.37% compared to the end of September [25]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Follow the progress of cotton processing and production determination in Xinjiang. Pay attention to the release of the USDA report, US cotton seedling conditions, and export situation [26]. 3. Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend and capital movement: Zhengzhou cotton tried to rise this week but lacked momentum. The 01 contract's positions decreased, and market sentiment was cautious [37]. - Month - spread structure: The current cotton month - spread shows a contango structure starting from the 01 contract. Near - month contracts are relatively weak due to increased supply and hedging pressure, while far - month contracts are expected to have tight supply and demand at the end of the year. After Sino - US consultations, the near - month trend was slightly stronger, but the overall C structure remained, and there is still pressure above the 01 contract [40]. - Basis structure: This week, as Zhengzhou cotton rebounded and new cotton supply increased, the basis further declined. The basis of the same - quality spot is between CF01 + 1000 - 1350 [44]. 4. Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Downstream Spinning Profit Tracking - Xinjiang yarn mills have cost advantages and maintain certain profits, while inland mills were slightly in the red in the third quarter. Currently, yarn prices are basically stable, new cotton purchase prices are firm, and the immediate spinning profit of domestic yarn mills has slightly declined [46]. 4.2 Import Profit Tracking - China is a large cotton importer. This year, cotton import profits are considerable, but the import quota is low. The additional 200,000 - ton sliding - scale tariff quota issued in August has limited impact on the market. In September 2025, China's cotton imports were 1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 300,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 200,000 tons [48]. 5. Supply and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - New - year Xinjiang cotton is gradually coming onto the market. A bumper harvest is basically certain, but the output increase may narrow due to lower yields in southern Xinjiang and lower lint percentage in most areas. It is tentatively estimated that the new - year cotton import volume will be 1.1 million tons. Domestic cotton consumption is not overly pessimistic due to the expansion of Xinjiang's spinning capacity and high operating rates [51].