1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the price of Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) is more likely to be weak, with the lower cost support estimated to be around 12,860 - 13,130 yuan/ton based on current machine - picked seed cotton and cottonseed prices [9][10] - The consumption demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season this year is weak, and the operating rates of the downstream industrial chain are significantly lower than in previous years. There is also an expectation of a bumper harvest in the new domestic cotton year, leading to high selling hedging pressure. For the outer market, due to the U.S. government shutdown, USDA data release is suspended, but according to the latest available data, the export pressure of U.S. cotton is relatively high [9] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review** - Outer market: In September, the price of U.S. cotton futures fluctuated and declined. As of September 30, the closing price of the December contract of U.S. cotton futures was 65.72 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.81 cents/pound or 1.22% from the previous month. The spread between December and March contracts of U.S. cotton fluctuated, reporting - 1.8 cents/pound, an increase of 0.1 cents/pound from the previous month [9] - Domestic market: In September, the price of Zhengzhou cotton declined. As of September 30, the closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 13,215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,025 yuan/ton or 7.2% from the previous month. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14,862 yuan/ton, a decrease of 466 yuan/ton from the previous month. The basis strengthened, reporting 1,643 yuan/ton, an increase of 515 yuan/ton from the previous month. The spread between January and May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton weakened slightly, reporting - 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton from the previous month [9] - **Industry Information** - Outer market: Due to the U.S. government shutdown, USDA data release is suspended [9] - Domestic market: On October 8, the purchase price of machine - picked seed cotton in Xinjiang was 6 - 6.25 yuan/kg, and the price of cottonseed was 2,100 - 2,200 yuan/ton. As of the week of October 3, the operating rate of spinning mills was 66%, 6.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year and 9.46 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years; the operating rate of weaving mills was 37.7%, 15.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year and 15.66 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years. The weekly commercial inventory of cotton was 980,000 tons, 550,000 tons less than the same period last year and 390,000 tons less than the five - year average [9] 3.2 Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, Zhengzhou cotton basis, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, and U.S. cotton contract spreads, which can be used to analyze price differences and market trends [26][28][30] 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - **Production and Import** - Domestic cotton production is presented through the processing and inspection quantity and total processing volume charts [39] - China's monthly and annual cumulative cotton import volumes are shown, as well as the monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of cotton yarn [41][46] - The cumulative and weekly export contract volumes of U.S. cotton to China are also provided [44] - **Downstream Operations and Sales** - The operating rates of spinning and weaving mills are analyzed, showing a decline compared to previous years [49] - The national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City are presented [51] - **Inventory** - The weekly commercial inventory of cotton and the combined commercial and industrial monthly inventory are provided [54] - The raw material and finished - product inventories of spinning mills are also shown [56] 3.4 International Market Situation - **United States** - The planting situation is reflected by the proportion of non - drought - affected planting areas and the excellent - good rate [60] - The production situation is shown through the bi - weekly and cumulative processing volumes [62] - The production forecast and planting area are presented [65] - The export contract progress, export shipment volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are analyzed [68][70][71] - **Brazil** - The planting area, production, export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are provided [73][76][78] - **India** - The planting area, production, consumption, import and export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are analyzed [81][84][86]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This month, cotton prices dropped significantly. The September USDA report had a neutral impact on the international market. In the US cotton - growing areas, there was a lack of rainfall. The US cotton had a good rate of high - quality and harvest. As of September 28, the US cotton good - quality rate was 47%, higher than 31% in the same period last year; the harvest rate was 16%, lower than 19% last year but the same as the five - year average. The continuous harvest and listing of US cotton put pressure on cotton prices. Also, the US dollar index rebounded after a decline, and US crude oil and grains performed weakly, causing US cotton to fluctuate downward. [5] - In the domestic supply side, the current commercial cotton inventory is continuously being consumed, and the import of cotton is relatively small. New cotton harvesting has started in some areas, but the listing volume is limited. The downstream demand has improved slightly but remains weak overall. The China Cotton Association shows that this year's domestic cotton output has increased to 7.216 million tons, reaching a new high since 2013. [5] - Due to the drag from the industry and the external environment, US cotton has weakened. The continuous consumption of domestic cotton inventory supports cotton prices. However, the gradual start of new cotton harvesting and the relatively soft downstream demand suppress the short - term decline of Zhengzhou cotton futures. In the medium - to - long - term, Zhengzhou cotton will also perform weakly under the pressure of a bumper harvest. The recommended operation is to short the 01 contract on rallies. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - As of the close on September 30, the ICE US cotton 12 contract closed at 65.72 cents per pound, down 0.81 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly decline of 1.22%. The CF2601 contract closed at 13,215 yuan per ton, down 1,025 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly decline of 7.20% [9] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 US Cotton - The US cotton report is neutral. In 2025/26, the planting area increased by 20,000 to 9.3 million acres, the harvest area increased by 10,000 to 7.37 million acres, the yield per unit decreased by 1 pound to 861 pounds per acre, the output increased by 10,000 to 13.22 million bales, the total consumption remained flat at 13.7 million bales, and the ending inventory remained flat at 3.6 million bales [14] - The US cotton good - quality rate is acceptable. As of September 28, 2025, the US cotton good - quality rate was 47%, the same as the previous week and higher than 31% in the same period last year. The harvest rate was 16%, up from 12% the previous week, lower than 19% last year but the same as the five - year average. The boll - opening rate was 67%, up from 60% the previous week, lower than 71% last year and 69% of the five - year average [17] - US cotton export sales are weak. As of the week of September 18, the export contract volume of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 18,500 tons, a 54% decrease compared with the previous week and the average of the previous four weeks. The main buyers are India and Turkey, also including Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Italy [21] 3.2.2 Domestic Market - The downstream spinning mill's operation rate has stabilized. As of September 25, the operation load of mainstream spinning enterprises was 66.6%, the same as the previous week. Before the National Day holiday, there was no large - scale stockpiling, new orders slowed down compared with the previous period, market confidence was insufficient, and spinning enterprises continued to maintain a reasonable inventory. The operation rate in the inland was 50% - 60%, and in Xinjiang, it was maintained at about 90% [24] - Downstream spinning enterprises continued to reduce inventory. As of the week of September 25, the cotton inventory of mainstream spinning enterprises was equivalent to 27.70 days of storage. As of September 25, the yarn inventory of major spinning enterprises was 30.3 days, a 0.33% decrease from the previous period. This week, the de - stocking of finished yarn slowed down, downstream traders were cautious, and procurement was not active. The inventory of large - scale factories in Xinjiang was about 35 days, and that of inland enterprises was about 15 days [27] - Zhengzhou cotton inventory continued to decline. As of September 26, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 1.0315 million tons, a decrease of 111,100 tons (a 9.72% decrease) from the previous week. Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 505,400 tons, a decrease of 59,200 tons (a 10.49% decrease) from the previous week; the commercial cotton in the inland was 248,900 tons, a decrease of 43,100 tons (a 14.76% decrease) from the previous week. As of September 25, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 3.08% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 277,200 tons [30]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The domestic cotton price is expected to remain under pressure in the short to medium term due to factors such as this year's cotton bumper harvest, low price expectations of farmers for seed cotton, weak downstream demand, and the influence of the macro - environment [2][3]. Summary by Directory Part I: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets - **Weekly Data Overview**: As of October 07, the CRB commodity price index closed at 301.07 points, down 3.96 points from September 26. On September 30, the Wenhua Commodity Index was 162.02, down 1.78 points or 1.09% from September 26. The ICE cotton futures main December contract was at 64.39 cents/pound on September 30, down 1.94 cents/pound or 2.9% from September 26. The Zhengzhou cotton main 01 contract closed at 13,215 yuan/ton on September 30, down 190 yuan/ton from September 26, with positions increasing by 635 lots to 535,000 lots [2][10][33]. - **Imported Cotton CNF Quotes**: From September 26 to September 30, the prices of US E/MOTM and Brazilian M imported cotton increased slightly, with the 1% customs - cleared and sliding - scale tax prices also rising [9]. Part II: Basic Situation of the Domestic Market - **Textile Raw Material Trends**: On September 30, the prices of raw materials showed mixed trends compared to September 26. The prices of polyester staple fiber and CCI3128 increased slightly, while the prices of viscose remained unchanged, and the prices of Zhengzhou cotton main contract decreased [15]. - **Cotton Yarn Price Trends**: On September 30, the domestic yarn prices decreased compared to September 26, while the RMB - denominated prices of imported pure - cotton yarns increased slightly due to RMB depreciation. The price difference between domestic and imported yarns narrowed [18][20][23]. - **Comparison of Domestic Cotton Spot and Futures Prices with International Cotton Price Index**: On September 30, the domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128 was 15,283 yuan/ton. The difference between the spot price index and the sliding - scale tax - included foreign cotton price was 1,059 yuan/ton. The difference between the main contract and the FCIndexM (sliding - scale tax) widened [26]. Part III: Analysis of the Zhengzhou Cotton Market - **Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: As of September 30, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 3,397 lots (146,000 tons), with 12 effective forecasts. The total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 146,000 tons, down from 182,000 tons on September 26 [29]. - **Analysis of the Basis of Zhengzhou Cotton**: On September 30, the difference between the Zhengzhou cotton futures price and the CCI3128B index was - 1,563 yuan/ton, wider than on September 26 [30]. - **Analysis of Zhengzhou Cotton Prices**: The macro - environment shows that major economies are in an interest - rate cut cycle. During the National Day, the seed cotton purchase price stabilized. The current pure - cotton yarn market has average trading volume, and the spinning mills' profit situation has improved slightly. The domestic cotton price is expected to be under pressure in the short to medium term. Technically, the indicators of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract have weakened [31][32][34]. Part IV: Analysis of the International Market - **US Cotton Export Dynamics**: From September 12 - 18, US 2025/26 annual net signing of upland cotton decreased by 54% week - on - week, and shipments increased by 14%. The net signing of Pima cotton increased significantly week - on - week, and shipments of Pima cotton increased significantly compared to the previous week [40]. - **Analysis of ICE Cotton Futures**: On September 30, the ICE cotton futures main December contract was at 64.39 cents/pound, down 1.94 cents/pound or 2.9% from September 26. Technically, the KDJ indicator formed a dead cross and diverged downward, and the technical indicators weakened [44]. Part V: Operation Suggestions - For upstream cotton enterprises, calculate the lint cost based on the seed cotton purchase price and hedge on the futures market or consider buying put options to hedge risks [46]. - For downstream spinning mills, when the raw material price drops, consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the lint purchase cost [46].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - During the National Day holiday, domestic cotton spot prices showed different trends, with the price of machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang and southern Xinjiang decreasing, while the 3128B index slightly increased; the domestic cotton yarn market had general trading atmosphere, with some manufacturers reducing prices for promotion due to insufficient downstream demand [1][2] - During the long - holiday, ICE cotton futures fluctuated downward, hitting a new low this year. The new U.S. cotton harvest was large, but exports were poor and the global cotton consumption outlook was uncertain, putting pressure on ICE cotton. The suspension of important USDA reports also made the market lack clear fundamental guidance [2] - The trend strength of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: On October 9, 2025, CF2601 closed at 13,215 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 1.01%, and its trading volume was 412,826 lots, an increase of 91,338 lots compared with the previous day, and the position was 745,181 lots, an increase of 12,757 lots; CY2511 closed at 19,410 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.44%, and its trading volume was 0 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots compared with the previous day, and the position was 0 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots; ICE cotton 12 closed at 64.94 cents/pound with a daily increase of 0.78% [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 3,081, a decrease of 92 compared with the previous day, and the effective forecast was 2, unchanged; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 0, unchanged [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang 3128 was 14,492 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.92% compared with the previous day; in southern Xinjiang 3128, it was 14,205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.94%; in Shandong, it was 14,817 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.72%; in Hebei, it was 14,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51%. The 3128B index was 14,759 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.01%. The international cotton index M was 73.07 cents/pound, a decrease of 1.19%. The price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 was 20,530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24%, and the arrival price was 21,392 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.06% [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread was - 30 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20 yuan compared with the previous day; the spread between machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang 3128 and CF601 was 1,280 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: During the National Day holiday, machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang was being harvested, with the seed cotton price above 6.03 yuan/kg, and the price of high - quality seed cotton around 6.2 yuan/kg. In southern Xinjiang, cotton was sporadically on the market, with the price of machine - picked seed cotton ranging from 5.9 to 6.23 yuan/kg, and the price of hand - picked seed cotton in Kashgar and Aksu ranging from 6.75 to 7.12 yuan/kg [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading atmosphere in the pure - cotton yarn market was general. Affected by the decline in cotton prices, some manufacturers reduced prices for promotion, but downstream demand was insufficient, and new orders were few, with mainly rigid - demand procurement [2] - **U.S. Cotton**: During the long - holiday, ICE cotton futures fluctuated downward, hitting a new low of 64.16 cents/pound this year. As of October 9, it closed at 64.94 cents/pound, with a cumulative decline of 0.7%. The large harvest of new U.S. cotton, poor exports, and unclear global cotton consumption prospects put pressure on ICE cotton. The suspension of important USDA reports also made the market lack clear guidance [2] 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the trend strength value ranging from - 2 to 2, where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas: The global cotton market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. With the OECD lowering the global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.9%, trade frictions and inflation continue to suppress cotton consumption. The U.S. cotton harvest lags behind previous years, while Brazil's harvest is nearly complete and Pakistan's new - cotton listing has increased significantly. Given the macro - economic downturn and short - term supply increase, international cotton prices may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [40]. - Domestic: The domestic cotton market is approaching a seasonal supply peak, and prices face significant downward pressure around the National Day. New cotton picking has started, but farmers are waiting and watching. The futures market has led to a decline in expected purchase prices. With the expected concentrated listing and weak consumption, domestic cotton prices may face further correction pressure [40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Price and Spread - The weekly average price of international cotton spot increased, and the spread between domestic and international cotton prices continued to narrow. The weekly average price of China's CC Index3128B was 15,292 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 16 yuan/ton. The spread between the Cotlook A 1% tariff converted into RMB and the CC Index3128B narrowed by 132 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [7]. 3.2 Global Cotton Supply and Demand (USDA) - **Global**: The expected total global cotton production in the current year is 25.622 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 230,000 tons (0.9%); consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, an increase of 184,000 tons (0.7%); imports are 9.516 million tons, an increase of 27,000 tons (0.3%); exports are 9.515 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons (0.3%); the global ending inventory is 15.925 million tons, a decrease of 168,000 tons (1.0%) [9]. - **US**: In 2025/26, the U.S. cotton planting area is 56.427 million mu, an increase of 115,000 mu; the harvested area is 44.729 million mu, an increase of 79,000 mu; the abandonment rate is 20.7%, with little change. The yield per unit is expected to be 64.3 kg/mu, a slight decrease; the production is expected to be 2.879 million tons, an increase of 2,000 tons. Consumption is expected to be 370,000 tons, and exports are expected to be 2.613 million tons, with little change. The ending inventory remains at 784,000 tons [12]. - **China**: The expected production is 7.076 million tons, an increase of 218,000 tons (3.2%); consumption is expected to be 8.382 million tons, an increase of 217,000 tons (2.7%); imports are expected to be 1.132 million tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons (1.9%). Considering the decrease in initial supply, the ending inventory decreases by 229,000 tons to 7.396 million tons [14]. 3.3 Growth and Harvest Progress - **US**: As of September 21, the U.S. cotton boll - opening rate was 60%, 2 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average. The picking progress was 12%, 1 percentage point behind last year and at the same level as the five - year average. In Texas, the boll - opening rate was 53%, 1 percentage point behind last year and at the same level as the five - year average, and the picking progress was 23%, 2 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average [18]. - **China**: As of September 25, the national new cotton picking progress was only 1.5%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points year - on - year, still in the initial stage [40]. 3.4 Climate Conditions - **US**: The precipitation in the U.S. was relatively low. As of September 16, the drought - affected area accounted for 40.8% of the total area, an increase of 4.9 percentage points from the previous week. In Texas, the drought - affected area accounted for 20.7%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous week [21]. - **China**: From September 30 to October 5, Xinjiang was affected by cold air, with rain, snow, and strong winds in some areas, which may have an adverse impact on cotton harvesting [22]. 3.5 Import and Inventory - **Import**: In August 2025, China's cotton imports were 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons (40.0%) and a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons (51.6%). From January to August 2025, the cumulative imports were 590,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72.6%. In the 2024/25 season, the cumulative imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66.9% [24]. - **Inventory**: As of September 2025, China's domestic commercial cotton inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 305,800 tons, at a historically low level. The industrial inventory was 862,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,200 tons, at a historically high level [26][30]. 3.6 Export Sign - ups and Shipments (US) - As of September 18, 2025, the U.S. had cumulatively signed 947,000 tons of cotton for export in the 2025/26 season, accounting for 36.22% of the expected annual exports, and had shipped 220,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 23.23%. China had cumulatively signed 17,000 tons, accounting for 1.77% of the signed volume, and had shipped 2,000 tons, accounting for 11.76% of the signed volume [28]. 3.7 Downstream Market - **Yarn**: The spot price of cotton yarn decreased slightly. Downstream traders and weaving factories replenished stocks for the National Day and subsequent demand, and the sales of cotton yarn were good. Some spinning enterprises had normal holidays during the National Day, while some extended their holidays. The opening rates of yarn mills in different regions were basically stable [34]. - **Retail**: In August 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.9668 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% and a month - on - month increase of 2.29%. The retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles were 104.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% and a month - on - month increase of 8.74% [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - In Q4 2025, the cotton market faces significant pressure, but the long - term outlook is not pessimistic. The international market will remain weak in the short - term, while the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton, will face seasonal supply pressure. However, in the long - run, the prospects for both markets are more positive [1][105]. - For the international market, short - term supply pressure is high due to harvests and slow US cotton export sign - ups. But long - term, cost support and potential changes in trade policies are favorable. For the domestic market, the large expected Xinjiang cotton production in Q4 2025 will test downstream demand, and there is a risk of the price breaking below 13,000 yuan/ton, but there are also factors supporting a rebound [105][106]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Q3 2025 Cotton Market Review - **Domestic Market**: Cotton prices first rose and then fell, shifting from trading the "tight reality" to the "loose expectation". In July, prices rose due to low commercial inventories and market sentiment. From late July to August, prices fluctuated due to hedging pressure. In September, prices declined as the expectation of increased Xinjiang cotton production grew [4]. - **International Market**: It remained weak in the low - level range of 65 - 70 cents/pound. Normal weather during the US cotton growing season and slow export sign - ups due to trade policies led to limited upward movement [5]. 2. Domestic Fundamental Analysis - **Inventory Situation**: As of the end of August, national commercial cotton inventories were 1.4817 million tons, a significant decrease. Xinjiang and inland commercial inventories were at multi - year lows. However, cotton textile enterprises had relatively high industrial inventories, which could meet needs until mid - October when new cotton is expected to be available in large quantities. There were reports of inventory shortages in some inland textile enterprises and a prominent shortage of high - quality cotton [12]. - **New Cotton Yield Estimation**: Domestic institutions expect significant increases in Xinjiang and national cotton production in the 2025/2026 season. The report estimates that Xinjiang's cotton production is likely to reach around 7.5 million tons. If so, the supply of about 8.4 million tons (including import quotas) can basically cover demand. The high - yield expectation has already led to a significant decline in the futures price, and attention should be paid to the actual yield [17][18][19]. - **New Cotton Purchase Expectations**: Ginning mills are cautious about new cotton purchases, with most expecting an opening price below 6.3 yuan/kg. Cotton farmers' psychological price is around 6.3 - 6.5 yuan/kg, and their reluctance to sell has weakened. The pre - sale price of cottonseed is expected to decline to 2.1 - 2.2 yuan/kg during the peak purchase period, still higher than last year. The large pre - sale volume of Xinjiang cotton and high pre - sale basis still exist. There is a possibility of a negative feedback loop between the futures price and the seed cotton purchase price, with the purchase price potentially dropping below 6 yuan/kg, corresponding to the futures price possibly breaking below 13,000 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Import Situation**: In the 2024/2025 season, cotton imports were 1.05 million tons, a 68% year - on - year decrease.棉纱 imports were 1.41 million tons, a 15.6% year - on - year decrease. In the 2025/2026 season, the import volume of cotton and棉纱 is uncertain, depending on trade negotiations. If the current tariff level between China and the US remains, it will continue to suppress imports [29]. - **Downstream Market**: The downstream textile industry had a lackluster peak season, with low profits for spinning enterprises. Although the profit margin improved in September, it remained low overall. Orders improved seasonally in August but were still weaker than in previous years. The inventory structure of downstream棉纱 was healthy, with continued inventory reduction in September. The load of downstream textile enterprises increased seasonally but was still lower than in previous years [33][40]. - **Terminal Textile and Apparel Market**: In August, textile and apparel exports declined year - on - year and month - on - month. From January to August, cumulative exports decreased slightly. However, China's textile and apparel exports showed resilience, with exports to the Belt and Road countries and the European Union playing important roles. Exports to the US declined significantly. Domestic demand for textile and apparel showed mild growth in the first eight months of 2025, but the growth rate was still relatively low, and the recovery of domestic demand was slow [50][52][66]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The 2024/2025 season had a supply - demand gap of about 600,000 - 700,000 tons. The 2025/2026 season may be a balanced or inventory - accumulating year. The large expected production will test downstream demand in Q4 2025, but the pressure may ease later [69]. - **Future Xinjiang Cotton Production**: There is uncertainty about whether Xinjiang's cotton planting area and production will continue to increase next year. Policy adjustments may occur, and the report believes that production may slightly decline next year due to factors such as possible reduced farmer income and government regulation [73]. 3. International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Situation**: The USDA September report maintained the previous forecast for US cotton supply and demand in the 2025/2026 season, with a tight - balance situation. As of September 21, the US cotton boll opening and harvesting progress was slightly behind last year but in line with the five - year average. Hurricane threats were low, and the weather was favorable for later growth and harvest. US cotton new - crop export sign - ups were slow, and the export demand may remain weak due to trade policy uncertainties [80][84][91]. - **Global Supply - Demand**: The 2025/2026 global cotton supply - demand pattern is relatively balanced. The USDA September report adjusted the supply and demand estimates, narrowing the supply - demand gap. The global market is facing seasonal supply pressure, and future focus will be on trade policies and demand prospects [95]. 4. Market Outlook - **International Market**: In Q4 2025, the international market will remain weak, with the price likely to test the 65 - cent support level. However, in the long - term, the outlook is not pessimistic, as there is cost support and potential positive changes in trade policies [105]. - **Domestic Market**: In Q4 2025, Zhengzhou cotton faces seasonal supply pressure, with a risk of breaking below 13,000 yuan/ton. But after the release of negative factors, downstream restocking may support the price. The long - term outlook is cautiously optimistic [106]. 5. Strategy - Short - and medium - term, it is advisable to sell on rebounds. In the long - term, wait for opportunities to buy at low levels below 13,000 yuan/ton, while closely monitoring macro - level and industrial drivers [108].

Report Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The high basis in the domestic cotton market during the 2024/25 crop year was mainly due to unexpectedly high demand and a significant decline in commercial inventories after March 2025, along with issues in the cotton futures warehouse receipt structure [1][7][20]. - If the supply of domestic cotton in the 2025/26 crop year is more abundant than in the 2024/25 crop year, the overall basis trend in 2025/26 may be weaker than in 2024/25. Special attention should be paid to the basis downward pressure during the peak new - cotton listing period from November to December, and the basis may have difficulty replicating the strong upward trend from March to August 2025 after March 2026 [2][21]. Summary by Directory 1. Analysis of the Reasons for the "High Basis" of Domestic Cotton in the 2024/25 Crop Year - The basis of domestic cotton in the 2024/25 crop year remained at a high level throughout the year, especially from April to August 2025, which was the highest in the past 10 years [5]. - The fundamental reasons for the high basis were unexpectedly high demand and a significant decline in commercial inventories. The strong demand was due to the expansion of Xinjiang's cotton textile production capacity, relatively low cotton prices, reduced imports of cotton and cotton yarn, and increased "hoarding" demand, which led to concerns about tight inventories at the end of the 2024/25 crop year and pushed up the basis [7]. - The high basis was also related to the structure of cotton futures warehouse receipts. The increase in the proportion of inland warehouse receipts, the rise in the proportion of low - quality warehouse receipts such as those from Hami, and the high proportion of high - premium warehouse receipts all contributed to the strengthening of the basis [10]. 2. Outlook for the Domestic Cotton Basis Trend in the 2025/26 Crop Year - In terms of supply, the basis may be under pressure from November to December due to the listing of new cotton. If the new cotton is listed early and processed quickly, the basis will be under pressure; if the processing is slow, the basis may strengthen unexpectedly in October. Also, if the seed cotton price is lower than expected, the basis may first be firm and then weaken [14][15]. - Regarding demand, if the trade demand is weak at the beginning of the new - cotton listing and the domestic cotton demand in the 2025/26 crop year continues to fall short of expectations, the basis may weaken. The price is the main factor affecting demand. Lower prices can stimulate demand, and if the futures or spot prices are significantly lower than the new - cotton cost, it will support the basis [17]. - The changes in cotton commercial inventories and futures warehouse receipts also affect the basis. If the commercial inventory increases year - on - year and the month - on - month decline is slow after March 2026, the basis may weaken. The situation of futures warehouse receipts, including quantity and structure, also needs to be monitored [19]. 3. Summary - The high basis in the 2024/25 crop year was mainly due to unexpectedly high demand and a significant decline in commercial inventories after March 2025, as well as the large - scale registration of warehouse receipts from Hami and high - index cotton, and the "arbitrage" of Xinjiang cotton to inland warehouses [20]. - If the supply in the 2025/26 crop year is more abundant, the overall basis trend may be weaker. Attention should be paid to the procurement enthusiasm of spinning mills and traders at the beginning of the listing, the profit and operating rate of spinning mills, and the commercial inventory and warehouse receipt situation [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "shockingly weak" [1][2] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international policy is loose but highly uncertain, while the domestic policy aims for stable growth but the domestic demand momentum needs to be released. The inflation pressure in the US has not completely subsided, and the market bets on further interest rate cuts by the end of the year, but the risk of "recessionary interest rate cuts" should be vigilant. There are still differences in the Sino-US tariff negotiations. In May 2025, some additional tariffs were cancelled, but the US has not clearly adjusted the 20% tariff related to "fentanyl" and the 10% basic tariff, and there are still significant variables in the later stage. Domestically, the official has introduced a series of economic stabilization policies, and the market expects a possible interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut in the fourth quarter; the capital activity has increased marginally, but the domestic demand policy still needs to be strengthened [5][64]. - Globally, the cotton production in the 2025/26 season has been increased month-on-month, with China, India, and Australia being the main sources of incremental production, offsetting the production cuts in some regions. The US production has slightly increased, but there is a risk of a downward revision of the unit yield due to the drought in the main producing areas. The global ending inventory has dropped to the lowest in nearly four years, the inventory-consumption ratio has decreased, and the supply and demand have shifted to a tight balance. The trade flow has been restructured due to Sino-US frictions, and China has reduced its purchase of US cotton and shifted to other cotton-producing countries. Domestically, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang has increased year-on-year, and the sufficient accumulated temperature has helped to improve the unit yield. The total production is expected to increase significantly, the harvest time is advanced, the pre-sale volume of new cotton has increased significantly, and the hedging position has moved forward, suppressing the short-term supply elasticity. The risk preference of ginning factories has dropped to a low level due to continuous losses, the effective production capacity has been reduced, the shortage pattern of seed cotton has reversed, and at the same time, the port and industrial and commercial inventories are running at a low level, the import volume has shrunk, and the domestic supply is more dependent on new cotton. There is a game between cotton farmers and ginning factories regarding the opening price [5][68]. - Global consumption has been slightly adjusted upward but shows significant differentiation. China's "Golden September and Silver October" peak season has driven consumption growth, while countries such as Turkey and Pakistan have dragged down the global demand recovery due to weak textile exports. The import of textiles and clothing in Europe and the US has improved marginally, but the inventories of wholesalers are at a high level and the willingness to replenish stocks is weak. The orders of processing countries in Southeast Asia are mainly short-term orders, and there is a shortage of long-term orders. Domestically, the characteristics of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season are not significant. Although the operating rate of textile enterprises has rebounded, it is still lower than the same period in previous years. The order increment is limited and mainly consists of small and short-term orders. The inventories of yarn, grey cloth, and textile enterprise raw materials have been continuously reduced but are still at a high level in the same period. Textile enterprises have a low willingness to actively stock up due to profit losses (cash flow losses for inland enterprises and small profits for Xinjiang enterprises). Exports show the characteristic of "trading volume for price", and the proportion of exports to emerging markets has increased to offset the decline in demand from Europe and the US [5][68]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In the third quarter, the Zhengzhou cotton futures generally showed a volatile trend of "rising first and then falling". In July, the domestic planting area increased in the new year, and the weather conditions were generally favorable for cotton growth. The market was optimistic about the later production, but the old crop inventory was low, and at the same time, the downstream production capacity was excessive. The old crop basis was running at a high level, which supported the Zhengzhou cotton price. The Zhengzhou cotton ran strongly to 14,200 - 14,300 yuan/ton. For US cotton, although some producing areas encountered certain weather problems, the overall impact was limited, and the market's expectation of US cotton production was still relatively stable. The price fluctuated between 67 - 68 cents/pound [6]. - In August, as the new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere entered the critical growth stage, the impact of weather factors on the market became more significant. The weather in the Xinjiang production area in China was good, and the expectation of a bumper harvest of Xinjiang cotton increased. At the same time, the near-month Zhengzhou cotton continued to reduce its positions and decline, reflecting that the real willingness of long - term funds to take delivery was relatively low. In the US, continuous drought weather occurred in some main cotton - producing areas, resulting in a decrease in the good - quality rate of US cotton. However, due to market concerns that the Sino - US tariff negotiations would fall short of expectations, leading to continued sluggish exports of new crops, the US cotton price still maintained a volatile and weak operation [6]. - In September, as the new cotton was approaching the market, the game among all parties in the market intensified. At the macro level, the domestic introduced a series of economic stabilization policies, which boosted the sentiment of the commodity market. Driven by the positive market sentiment, the Zhengzhou cotton rushed up to near the previous high again, but due to the gradual listing of new cotton and the less - than - expected recovery of orders from downstream textile enterprises, the Zhengzhou cotton fell again. At the end of the month, the price of the main contract closed at 13,600 - 13,700 yuan/ton. For US cotton, as the new cotton began to be harvested one after another, the market's expectation of production gradually became clear. Although there was some production reduction due to previous weather problems, the demand side was still weak. The US cotton price fluctuated and fell after rushing up, and the price of the main contract closed at around 69 cents/pound at the end of the month [7]. 2. International Cotton Market 2.1 Global Trade Flow Reconstruction - In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton production increased by more than 230,000 tons month - on - month to 25.62 million tons. The main sources of incremental production were China, India, and Australia. The global cotton consumption increased by 180,000 tons month - on - month to 25.87 million tons, mainly driven by the recovery of consumption in China. The global cotton trade volume increased by 20,000 tons month - on - month. India and Australia were the main sources of export increment, and Vietnam and Turkey were the main sources of import increment. The global cotton trade generally maintained an expanding trend, but the Sino - US trade friction led to the gradual reconstruction of the global trade flow [13]. - Affected by the reduction of the initial inventory, the global cotton ending inventory decreased by nearly 170,000 tons month - on - month to 15.92 million tons, the lowest level in nearly four years. The global cotton inventory - consumption ratio dropped to 45%, down 1 percentage point month - on - month and 0.7 percentage points year - on - year, indicating that the global cotton "de - stocking" process continued, and the supply - demand pattern gradually switched from "loose" to "tight balance" [14]. 2.2 United States: Drought in Producing Areas and Obstructed Exports - In terms of new crop production, the USDA September supply - demand report showed that the estimated unit yield of US cotton in the 2025/26 season was 861 pounds/acre, down 1 pound/acre month - on - month, but the estimated harvest area was 7.37 million acres, up 10,000 acres month - on - month, resulting in a slight increase in the total production to 2.88 million tons, up 2,000 tons month - on - month. The adjustment of the unit yield was due to the continuous expansion of the drought area in the main US cotton - producing areas. As of September 16, 2025, about 41% of the US cotton - producing areas were affected by drought. As of September 22, 2025, the overall good - quality rate of US cotton plants was 52%, down 2 percentage points from the previous week [16][17]. - In terms of exports, from September 12 - 18, 2025, the export signing volume of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 18,500 tons, down 54% from the previous week and the average level of the previous four weeks. The weekly export shipment volume was 31,100 tons, up 14% from the previous week and 6% from the average level of the previous four weeks. China continued to be absent from the new - season US cotton procurement. As of the week of September 18, 2025, the total sales progress of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 7.7%, indicating that US cotton faced difficulties in the international market and its competitiveness needed to be improved [18]. - In terms of tariff negotiations, in May 2025, China and the US agreed to cancel the additional 91% tariffs imposed after April 2, but the US still had uncertainties in tariff policies. The market expected that the possibility of reducing the 10% (basic reciprocal tariff) was low; the 20% fentanyl tariff was expected to be reduced, but the reduction range was not clear; the reduction range of the 24% additional reciprocal tariff also depended on the negotiation results of both sides [19]. 2.3 Brazil: Both Supply and Sales Increase - For the old crop, in the 2024/25 season, the cotton planting area in Brazil continued to expand, with the national cotton planting area reaching about 2.09 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 155,000 hectares (+7.3%). The average unit yield was 1,887 kg/hectare (-0.9%), equivalent to 125.8 kg/mu. Driven by the large increase in area, the total cotton production in Brazil in the 2024/25 season reached 3.94 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 233,000 tons (+6.3%), setting a new historical record [37]. - For the new crop, it is predicted that the cotton planting area in Brazil will be 2.14 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%, and the output is expected to be 3.96 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The average unit yield is 1,849 kg/hectare, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. The main risk to the new - crop unit yield comes from the uncertainty of climate conditions. In the 2024/25 season, Brazil's total cotton exports reached 2.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.8%, making it the world's largest cotton exporter again. As of mid - September 2025, the pre - sale progress of Brazil's 2025/26 season cotton had reached 26% [40]. 2.4 India: Production Increases and Demand Stabilizes - In terms of production, the USDA latest report estimated that the cotton production in India in the 2025/26 season would be 4.16 million bales, with a planting area of 11.2 million hectares and a unit yield of 372 kg/hectare. The CAI predicted that the new - crop unit yield would increase by about 10% [42]. - In terms of imports, as of July 2025, the cumulative cotton import volume of India in the 2024/25 season (2024.8 - 2025.7) was 604,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 284.5%, at a historical high. The CAI latest supply - demand data adjusted the cotton import volume of India in the 2024/25 season to 3.9 million bales [42][43]. - In terms of exports, the USDA September report showed that the cotton export of India in the 2024/25 season decreased by 40,000 tons month - on - month to 280,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons. The CAI estimated that the export in the 2024/25 season would be 1.8 million bales, lower than 2.836 million bales in the 2023/24 season. The export destinations were still concentrated in Southeast Asia, but the shares of major countries such as Bangladesh, Vietnam, and China all declined significantly [43]. - In terms of domestic consumption, the CAI estimated that as of the end of August 2025, the domestic cotton consumption in India in the 2024/25 season was 5.34 million tons, basically the same month - on - month and year - on - year [43]. 2.5 Southeast Asia: Total Volume Increases Steadily and Structure Differs - Southeast Asia has become the core destination for the transfer of global cotton spinning production capacity. Affected by the 50% tariff imposed by the US on Indian goods, a large number of Indian cotton product orders have been transferred to Southeast Asia. Vietnam, Bangladesh and other countries' yarn mills' cotton consumption demand has increased significantly. Vietnam has an advantage in tariff competition in the European and American markets and has become the preferred destination for export - oriented orders [45]. - Southeast Asia itself lacks cotton production and depends entirely on imports for raw materials. In the 2025/26 season, the cotton planting area in Pakistan is expected to be 1.85 million hectares, a decrease of 7.5% from the previous year. The output is predicted to be adjusted down to 1.05 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4% [46][47]. 3. Domestic Cotton Market 3.1 Supply: High Pressure from New Crops - For the old crop inventory, as of August 31, 2025, the total national social cotton inventory was 2.37 million tons, including 890,000 tons of industrial inventory and 1.48 million tons of commercial inventory, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5% and 14.0% respectively, significantly lower than 3 million tons in the same period in 2024. After entering September, the pace of old - crop inventory depletion slowed down slightly but remained at a low level. Spot transactions were dull, and textile enterprises mainly made rigid purchases [49]. - For the new crop output, in terms of area, according to the data of the National Cotton Market Monitoring System in July 2025, the national actual cotton sown area was 45.803 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%; among them, the actual sown area in the Xinjiang cotton area was 43.58 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. In terms of unit yield, the comprehensive climate from sowing to boll - opening in the Xinjiang cotton area was suitable. The China Cotton Association data showed that the estimated unit yield of Xinjiang cotton in 2025 was 169 kg/mu, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%. Market institutions estimated that the output range was between 7.08 - 7.7 million tons [49][50]. - In terms of imports, since 2025, the domestic cotton import volume has decreased significantly year - on - year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imported cotton was 513,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3%. It may increase slightly from September to December due to the implementation of processing trade quotas, but it will still be relatively stable throughout the year [50]. 3.2 Demand: High and Stable in Xinjiang, Differentiated in Inland Areas - The operating rate of domestic yarn mills shows a pattern of "high and stable in Xinjiang, differentiated in inland areas". The operating rate of Xinjiang yarn mills is significantly better than that of inland areas. Since 2025, the operating rate of large - scale yarn mills in Xinjiang has been stable in the range of 80% - 90%. From the raw material end, the expected local cotton output in Xinjiang is sufficient, and yarn mills can purchase nearby, which not only has a stable supply but also saves long - distance transportation costs. From the industrial environment, in recent years, Xinjiang has continuously increased its support for the textile industry, and the policy dividends have attracted a large amount of investment [55]. - The demand for cotton in inland yarn mills shows a differentiated pattern of "stable for leading enterprises, sluggish for small and medium - sized enterprises", and the overall demand is weaker than that in Xinjiang. Large - scale inland yarn mills have relatively stable demand for cotton procurement, while small and medium - sized yarn mills face multiple operating pressures. On the one hand, the terminal consumer market demand is weak, and it is difficult to obtain orders, and most of them are small and short - term orders. On the other hand, the costs of raw material procurement, labor, transportation, etc. continue to rise, and the profit space of enterprises is compressed. Some enterprises have tight cash flow, and the operating rate can only be maintained at 50% - 60%, and there are even intermittent shutdown situations [56][57].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The expectation of a strong market in September was disappointed. Cotton prices continued to decline this week, with Zhengzhou cotton dropping significantly. The new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, increasing the hedging pressure. The main contract 01 is expected to be weak in the short - term. Considering the upcoming National Day holiday, it is recommended to reduce profitable short positions to avoid risks [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the reduction of previous mutual tariffs between China and the US and the year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. Negative factors include ongoing trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption in September [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - The cotton market continued its downward trend this week. The expected strong market in September did not materialize. Xinjiang's cotton harvest is promising. The national cotton output is expected to be 7.22 million tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton year in terms of production, consumption, and inventory. For example, the ICAC September report predicts a production and consumption of 25.5 million tons each; the USDA September report predicts a production of 25.622 million tons, consumption of 25.872 million tons, and an ending inventory of 15.925 million tons. In August, textile and clothing exports were $26.54 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. China's cotton imports in August were 70,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6%, while cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18% [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is almost half over, but the market is quiet. The textile and clothing export data in August was not ideal. With the new cotton about to be listed in large quantities, the hedging pressure is increasing. The main contract 01 is expected to be weak in the short - term. Considering the National Day holiday, it is recommended to reduce profitable short positions to avoid risks [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No specific content related to today's focus is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast**: In the 2025/26 cotton year, the total global production is expected to be 25.622 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons; and the ending inventory is expected to be 15.925 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 168,000 tons [12]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 cotton year, global production is 2.59 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically flat; the ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, an increase of 26,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; the global trade volume is 970,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons (3.9%) year - on - year. The price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [14]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Data**: In the 2025/26 cotton year, production is 636,000 tons, imports are 140,000 tons, consumption is 740,000 tons, and the ending inventory is 822,000 tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 15,000 and 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 and 100 cents per pound [15]. 3.5 Position Data No specific content related to position data is provided in the report.

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - The international cotton market is affected by tariff games, demand concerns, and new cotton harvest pressure, leading to a weakening trend in cotton prices. The poor export data from USDA also contributes to the weak performance [8]. - The domestic cotton market has low downstream textile enterprise operating rates, slow yarn inventory digestion, and weak demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. New flower listings restrict price drops, but strong basis limits further decline [8]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a short - side approach on rallies, but stay on the sidelines before the National Day. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. Summary by Directory Market Overview Price Situation - Futures and spot cotton prices, as well as related price indices, are under downward pressure. The NYBOT 2 -号 cotton futures closed at 66.27 (down 0.05% week - on - week), the international cotton index M declined by 0.89% to 73.83, and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract price dropped 2.30% to 13,405 [5]. - Cotton import profits at the spot and futures levels are shrinking, while the loss in yarn imports is narrowing. The cotton basis strengthened this week [5]. Supply - Demand Factors - Globally, according to the USDA September report, cotton production is expected to increase by 0.91% to 25.6542 million tons, and inventory is expected to decrease by 1.04% to 15.9445 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio dropped to 61.55% [7]. - In the domestic market, production is expected to increase slightly by 3.17% to 7.085 million tons. Commercial inventory decreased by 32.34% to 1.4817 million tons, and imports increased by 40% to 70,000 tons. Textile exports decreased by 0.85% [7]. Spot Market Price and Spread - Spot cotton and yarn prices are in a high - level volatile and slow - decline state, with imported cotton prices at a low level. Cotton import profits remain relatively large [13][22]. - The basis of cotton and yarn showed a rebound this week [19]. International Cotton Market Supply - Demand Data - The USDA September report shows an increase in global cotton production and a decrease in inventory. US upland cotton exports decreased week - on - week [26][29]. Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand and Industry Data - Domestic cotton production is expected to increase according to the September reports of the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and USDA. Commercial inventory is in a destocking state, and port inventory continues to decline [33][37]. - Cotton imports rebounded month - on - month, but overall imports weakened. Textile enterprise operating rates are stable, yarn inventory is slowly decreasing, and cotton raw material inventory is declining. Cotton yarn imports did not increase significantly, and textile exports are not bad [40][42][45]. Exchange Rate Trends - The US dollar index rebounded, and the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate slowed down [50].