Workflow
棉花种植与加工
icon
Search documents
库存、下游需求,郑棉震荡偏强也有压力
Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-20 12:19
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International cotton market: Trade tariffs imposed by the US on most countries increase market uncertainty and may lead to inflation, supporting a rebound in cotton prices. However, the latest USDA export data shows that export pressure persists, constraining the upward movement of cotton prices. The expected increase in supply also exerts pressure on cotton prices [7]. - Domestic cotton market: Domestic cotton prices are rising strongly, supported by tight domestic cotton inventories. Cotton prices are expected to continue to rebound, but the downstream operating rate is still declining, spinning profit losses are increasing, and yarn inventories are accumulating, which is unfavorable for raw material procurement. Cotton prices face pressure from weakening demand and profit - taking by funds at high levels. The issue of Sino - US trade tariffs will gradually increase market attention and price volatility [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview Market Price Situation - Futures closing prices (active) of NYBOT 2 - grade cotton increased from 67.42 to 68.76, a week - on - week increase of 1.99%, and are expected to face resistance in the rebound [5]. - The International Cotton Index M (CNCottonM) rose from 75.28 to 76.38, a week - on - week increase of 1.46%, and is expected to face resistance in the rebound [5]. - The price of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract increased from 13,885 to 14,270, a week - on - week increase of 2.77%, and is expected to face resistance in the rebound. The international cotton market is still in a downward trend due to demand concerns, while the domestic market is relatively strong because of lower year - on - year inventories [5]. - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) rose from 15,266 to 15,508, a week - on - week increase of 1.59%, and is expected to rebound [5]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) increased from 13,597 to 13,815, a week - on - week increase of 1.60%, and is expected to rebound [5]. - The China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) rose from 20,490 to 20,740, a week - on - week increase of 1.22%, and is expected to rebound [5]. - Cotton spot import profit increased from 1,669 to 1,693, a week - on - week increase of 1.44%, and is expected to expand [5]. - Cotton futures import profit increased from 288 to 455, a week - on - week increase of 57.99%, and is expected to expand [5]. - Cotton yarn import profit increased from - 1,524 to - 1,393, a week - on - week increase of 8.60%, but it remains weak [5]. - Cotton basis decreased from 1,420 to 1,238, a week - on - week decrease of 12.82%, and is expected to remain strong in the short term but gradually weaken [5]. - Cotton yarn basis decreased from 400 to 220, a week - on - week decrease of 45.00%, and is expected to weaken in a volatile manner [5]. Supply - Demand Factor Situation - International market: According to the USDA July supply - demand report, global cotton production increased from 25.5038 million tons to 25.8156 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.22%, and the next - year production forecast is upward - adjusted; global cotton inventory increased from 16.7434 million tons to 16.8557 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio increased from 65.22% to 65.45%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35%, which is bearish for the market. The weekly net sales of US cotton decreased from 255,000 tons to 341,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35.08%, which also exerts pressure on cotton prices [6]. - Domestic market: According to the USDA July supply - demand report, domestic cotton production is expected to increase slightly from 6.54 million tons to 6.758 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.33%. Commercial cotton inventory decreased from 3.4587 million tons to 2.8298 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.18%. Cotton imports decreased from 40,000 tons to 30,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.00%. The downstream operating rate decreased from 68.39% to 68.21%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.26%. Textile exports increased from $26.20951 billion to $27.314921 billion, a month - on - month increase of 4.22%, but there are concerns about future exports [6]. 2. Spot Market Prices and Spreads - Spot cotton and yarn price trends: The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B), the International Cotton Index M (CNCottonM), the China Yarn Price Index, and the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) all showed upward trends [5][13][14][15][16]. - Basis: This week, the cotton basis rebounded, while the cotton yarn basis showed a volatile downward trend [18]. - Cotton and cotton yarn internal - external spreads: The document presents the trends of import cotton prices, internal - external cotton spreads, import yarn prices, and internal - external yarn spreads [22]. 3. International Cotton Market Supply - Demand Data - USDA supply - demand data (July): Global cotton production and ending inventory are upward - adjusted, which is bearish for the market [25]. - International market: US upland cotton export shipments and contracts decreased [28]. 4. Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand and Industry Data - Domestic cotton market: According to the USDA July forecast, both supply and demand are expected to decline [32]. - Domestic cotton market: Commercial inventories are in a destocking state, and port inventories are declining at an accelerated pace [35]. - Domestic cotton market: Cotton imports are slowing down [38]. - Domestic textile enterprises: The operating rate is decreasing, yarn inventories are rising, and cotton raw material inventories are decreasing [41]. - Domestic cotton spinning: Imports have not increased significantly, while textile exports are not bad [44]. 5. Exchange Rate Trends - The US dollar index rebounded, and the RMB is slowly appreciating [48].
棉花周报:资金博弈升级,郑棉加速上行-20250720
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-20 11:32
Report Title - "Fund Game Escalates, Zhengzhou Cotton Accelerates Upward - Guoxin Futures Cotton Weekly Report" [2] Report Date - July 20, 2025 [2] Core Views - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton broke through and rose this week. Without additional quotas or state reserve sales, the supply shortage intensified as the basis continued to rise. With rising cotton prices, yarn quotes also increased significantly. Short - term supply shortage is difficult to resolve without external supply increase, and price rise is a reasonable outcome. The upward trend depends on position changes and unexpected policy implementation, and a significant reduction in positions is needed to end the rally [51]. - Internationally, the US initiated a new round of tariff hikes, and negotiations are ongoing. US cotton weekly export data remained weak, with this - year's signing declining seasonally and next - year's signing lackluster. US main growing areas, especially Texas, saw a drop in the drought index and a continuous rise in the good - to - excellent rate. US cotton is expected to fluctuate between 65 - 70 cents per pound [51]. Cotton Market Analysis Futures Price - Zhengzhou cotton futures rose strongly this week, with a weekly increase of 2.77%. ICE cotton futures were strong, with a weekly increase of 2.24% [9]. Spot Price - This week, the cotton price index rose. The 3128 index increased by 255 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the 2129 index increased by 242 yuan/ton [14]. Import Situation - In May, 40,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons [17]. Inventory Situation - In June, the commercial cotton inventory was 2.8298 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 443,700 tons. The industrial cotton inventory was 903,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65,500 tons [25]. Downstream Inventory - In June, the yarn inventory was 27.23 days, a year - on - year decrease of 3.71 days. The grey cloth inventory was 36.61 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.58 days [30]. Yarn Price - This week, yarn prices rose. The price of OEC10S increased by 160 yuan/ton, C32S by 240 yuan/ton, and JC40S by 280 yuan/ton compared to last week [34]. Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts - This week, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts decreased by 276. There were 9,585 warehouse receipts and 223 valid forecasts, totaling 9,808 [38]. US Cotton Export - As of July 10, the net sales of US upland cotton for the current year increased by 5,500 bales, and the net sales for the next year were 73,000 bales [41]. Market Outlook - Domestic: The upward trend of Zhengzhou cotton depends on position changes and unexpected policy implementation. A significant reduction in positions is needed to end the rally [51]. - International: US cotton is expected to fluctuate between 65 - 70 cents per pound [51]. Operation Suggestion - Short - term trading is recommended [52]
棉花:市场情绪热烈,推动期价、月差大涨
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-20 09:59
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - ICE cotton has rebounded due to the recovery of overall risk appetite in the financial and commodity markets, but the lack of obvious fundamental drivers and factors like good US cotton growth and weak global consumption prospects limit its upside potential [1][6][19]. - Domestic cotton futures have risen significantly with an expanding 9 - 1 spread, mainly driven by concerns over tight old - crop inventories. The bullish sentiment in the domestic commodity market has strengthened this positive factor, showing a stronger near - term and weaker long - term trend in futures. However, the accelerated rise is more influenced by technical buying and market sentiment than fundamentals, and there is a risk of decline when market sentiment cools or fundamental negatives appear [2][19]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data | Futures | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Volume (Lots) | Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main Contract | 67.44 | 69.15 | 67.36 | 68.76 | 1.34 | 1.99 | 89187 | - 1938 | 152744 | 1339 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main Contract | 13880 | 14375 | 13765 | 14270 | 385 | 2.77 | 1456374 | 487140 | 580773 | 25216 | | Cotton Yarn Main Contract | 20070 | 20600 | 19980 | 20520 | 425 | 2.11 | 39318 | 3115 | 19058 | - 3547 | [5] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 International Cotton Situation - **ICE Cotton**: Rebounded this week due to the recovery of overall risk appetite in the financial and commodity markets, and supported by commercial bargain - hunting [1][6]. - **US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data**: As of the week ending July 10, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly contracts decreased by 93% week - on - week and 89% compared to the four - week average. 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 1.66 tons. The total signed sales volume of 2024/25 US upland and Pima cotton accounted for 108% of the annual forecast export volume, and the cumulative export shipment volume accounted for 90% of the total annual contracts [7]. - **Other Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries**: - **India**: Sowing progress is slightly slower than last year. Cotton planting area as of July 11 was 9.3 million hectares. Cotton textile product exports in June decreased by 4% month - on - month and 3% year - on - year, and ready - made garment exports decreased by 13% month - on - month [8]. - **Brazil**: The US tariff increase on Brazilian goods has raised concerns in the domestic textile industry. The trading of new cotton in the 2025 season is slow, and farmers have sold about 70% of the total output [9]. - **Pakistan**: Cotton import demand is moderate. Local cotton production is expected to be between 6.5 - 7.5 million bales, and the price of new cotton in Punjab in 2025/26 is about 16,500 - 16,700 rupees per mound [9]. - **Bangladesh**: Focusing on US tariff negotiations. Cotton imports in June were 12.3 tons, lower than in May and the same period last year. The cumulative imports in the first 11 months of this year increased by 11% compared to the same period in 2023/24 [10]. - **Southeast Asian Textile Industry Startup Rates**: As of the week ending July 18, the startup rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 73%, 64%, and 62% respectively [11]. 3.2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - **Cotton Spot Market**: Spot trading is weak, but prices have risen sharply. Spinning mills mainly make rigid - demand purchases, and some large spinning mills locked in basis prices for better procurement on July 16 [12]. - **Cotton Warehouse Receipts**: As of July 18, there were 9532 registered warehouse receipts and 223 pending warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 9755 receipts, equivalent to 409,710 tons [13]. - **Downstream Market**: The price of pure - cotton yarn has continued to rise, and actual transactions are gradually following up. The profit of spinning mills has not improved significantly, and the startup rate of inland spinning mills has continued to decline. The off - season in the cotton - fabric market continues, with low startup rates, slow sales, and increasing inventory [14]. 3.3 Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton needs to wait for a driver to break through the oscillation range this year. For domestic cotton, continue to monitor the profit, startup rate, and finished - product inventory of downstream textile enterprises, especially the startup rate of Xinjiang spinning mills. Pay attention to supply - related policies (such as reserve policies and import quota policies) and demand - related policies (such as "anti - involution" in the industrial sector). Be aware of the risk of decline when market sentiment cools or fundamental negatives appear [19].
棉花:期价创年内新高
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 01:38
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Cotton futures prices reached a new high for the year. The trend strength of cotton is neutral with a value of 0 [1][4]. - Domestic cotton spot trading was average, with local basis - locked transactions and stable overall basis. The cotton yarn market was lackluster, and the cotton fabric market had few real orders and high inventory [2]. - ICE cotton futures fluctuated narrowly after two consecutive days of gains and were waiting for the export sales data on Thursday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2509 closed at 13,990 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 1.01%, and 14,165 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 1.25%. Trading volume was 386,635 lots, an increase of 89,128 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 883,428 lots, an increase of 37,744 lots [1]. - CY2509 closed at 20,180 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.65%, and 20,360 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 0.89%. Trading volume was 7,504 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 20,395 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - ICE cotton 12 closed at 68.56 cents/pound yesterday with a decrease of - 0.01% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts were 9,643, a decrease of 73 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 223, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - Cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 98, unchanged from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 98 from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Data**: - The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,320 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.79%. The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,990 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.81% [1]. - The price in Shandong was 15,226 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.25%. The price in Hebei was 15,313 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan/ton from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.32% [1]. - The 3128B index was 15,272 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.20%. The international cotton index M was 76.14 cents/pound, an increase of 0.58% from the previous day [1]. - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 22,122 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.06% [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The CF9 - 1 spread was 95 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: According to TTEB, cotton spot trading was average, with local basis - locked transactions and stable overall basis. Different regions and qualities of cotton had different basis quotes [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The pure - cotton yarn market had little change in trading, and the overall atmosphere was still dull. Yarn prices were stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream enterprises were gradually digesting the previous price increases. The off - season continued, and spinning mills continued to reduce production by lowering the operating rate to relieve inventory pressure. The all - cotton fabric market had few real orders, and manufacturers had high inventory and poor sales [2]. - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures fluctuated narrowly after two consecutive days of gains and were waiting for the export sales data on Thursday [2]. 3.3 Trend Strength The trend strength of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].
大越期货棉花早报-20250708
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 02:20
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年7月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询证号: Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花: 1、基本面:ICAC7月报:25/26年度产量2590万吨,消费2560万吨。USDA6月报:25/26年 度产量2547.2万吨,消费2563.8万吨,期末库存1672.1万吨。海关:5月纺织品服装出口 262.1亿美元,同比0.6%。5月份我国棉花进口3.45万吨,同比减少86.74%;棉纱进口10万 吨,同比减少14.55%。农村部6月25/26年度:产量625万吨,进口140万吨,消费740万吨, 期末库存823万吨。中性。 2、基差:现货3128b全国均价15201,基差1441(09合约),升水期货; ...
棉花周报:等待政策明朗,郑棉走势纠结-20250706
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 02:44
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) fluctuated after rising this week, and the market trend became entangled. The spot market in Xinjiang maintained a high basis, and the warehouse receipts flowed out slightly. The trade agreement between Vietnam and the US was negative for Chinese exports. Hail damaged some cotton fields in Xinjiang, but the impact on overall production was limited. The market expected the issuance of quotas, and the price was blocked at 14,000 yuan/ton. It was necessary to wait for policy clarity, and the expected impact of the policy might be reduced. - Internationally, the trade agreement between the US and Vietnam was beneficial for US cotton exports. The actual sown area of US cotton in the new season decreased by only 10% year - on - year and was higher than market expectations. International cotton prices were expected to fluctuate in the short term. - The operation suggestion was to focus on short - term trading [50]. 3. Summary by Directory Cotton Market Analysis - **Futures Price Trends**: Zhengzhou cotton futures rose 0.15% this week after rising and then falling, while ICE cotton futures weakened with a weekly decline of 1.28% [9]. - **Spot Prices**: This week, the cotton price index increased. The 3128 index rose 85 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the 2129 index rose 91 yuan/ton [14]. - **Cotton Import Situation**: In May, 40,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons [16]. - **Cotton Inventory Situation**: In May, the commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 315,400 tons, and the industrial cotton inventory was 941,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 55,200 tons [25]. - **Downstream Inventory Situation**: In May, the yarn inventory was 22.34 days, a year - on - year decrease of 5.19 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 32.89 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.94 days [30]. - **Yarn Prices**: This week, yarn prices increased. The price of OEC10S yarn rose 20 yuan/ton, C32S yarn rose 40 yuan/ton, and JC40S yarn rose 30 yuan/ton compared to last week [34]. - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts**: This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 191. There were 10,140 warehouse receipts and 266 valid forecasts, totaling 10,406 [38]. - **US Cotton Export Situation**: As of June 26, the net sales of US upland cotton exports in the current year increased by 23,700 bales, and the net sales in the next year were 106,600 bales [41][44]. 后市展望 - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated after rising this week, and the market trend was entangled. The basis in Xinjiang remained high, and warehouse receipts flowed out slightly. The trade agreement between Vietnam and the US was negative for Chinese exports. Hail damaged some cotton fields in Xinjiang, but the impact on overall production was limited. The market expected the issuance of quotas, and the price was blocked at 14,000 yuan/ton. It was necessary to wait for policy clarity [50]. - **International Market**: The trade agreement between the US and Vietnam was beneficial for US cotton exports. The actual sown area of US cotton in the new season decreased by only 10% year - on - year and was higher than market expectations. International cotton prices were expected to fluctuate in the short term. - **Operation Suggestion**: Focus on short - term trading [50].
棉花月报:中美谈判预期利好,郑棉价格反弹-20250704
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 13:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the US cotton planting intention report was bearish as the USDA's estimated cotton planting area in the US for 2025 was higher than market expectations. Domestically, the expected positive outcome of the China - US negotiations at the end of June supported cotton prices. However, from a fundamental perspective, the rapid strengthening of the basis was unfavorable for downstream consumption, the inventory reduction speed slowed down, and import quotas might be issued in the future. Overall, short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate, and attention should be focused on the implementation of the China - US negotiation results [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Market Review**: In June, US cotton futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. As of June 30, the closing price of the December contract of US cotton futures was 68.04 cents per pound, up 0.23 cents per pound from the previous month, a rise of 0.34%. The USDA's planting intention report showed that the estimated cotton planting area in the US for 2025 was 10.12 million acres, higher than the market's previous estimate of 9.735 million acres, and the actual planting area in 2024 was 11.183 million acres. As of June 29, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 51%, exceeding the level of the same period last year [9]. - **Domestic Market Review**: In June, Zhengzhou cotton prices rebounded. As of June 30, the closing price of the September contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 13,740 yuan per ton, up 465 yuan per ton from the previous month, a rise of 3.5%. In May 2025, China imported 40,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons. From January to May 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.21 million tons. As of the end of May in the 2024/25 season (from August to the following July), China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.86 million tons. On June 27, the Chinese and US sides further confirmed the details of the framework, and the US would cancel a series of restrictive measures against China [9]. - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: The US cotton planting intention report in June was bearish. Domestically, the expected positive outcome of the China - US negotiations supported cotton prices, but the rapid strengthening of the basis was unfavorable for downstream consumption, and import quotas might be issued. Short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the China - US negotiation results [9]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: As of June 30, 2025, the basis was 1,421 yuan per ton, the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 spread was - 20 yuan per ton, the spinning spot profit was - 1,762 yuan per ton, the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread was 245 yuan per ton, the FC index M 1% was 14,021 yuan per ton, and the FC index M sliding - scale duty was 14,637 yuan per ton. The short - term cotton price may continue the rebound trend, and attention should be paid to the China - US negotiation results [10]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Not provided [11] 3.2 Domestic Market Situation - **Cotton Production**: Relevant data on China's cotton processing and inspection quantity and national cotton processing volume are presented in figures [38][39] - **Cotton Imports**: In May 2025, China imported 40,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons. From January to May 2025, cumulative imports were 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.21 million tons. As of the end of May in the 2024/25 season, cumulative imports were 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.86 million tons [9][40] - **US Exports to China**: Data on the US's cumulative and weekly export contract volumes to China are provided in figures [42][43] - **Cotton Yarn Imports**: Data on China's monthly and annual cumulative cotton yarn import volumes are presented in figures [44][45] - **Downstream Operating Rates**: Data on the operating rates of spinning and weaving factories are provided in figures [46][47] - **Cotton Sales and Transactions**: Data on the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City are presented in figures [48] - **Cotton Inventory**: Data on China's weekly commercial cotton inventory and the combined monthly commercial and industrial inventory are presented in figures [49][50] - **Spinning Mill Inventories**: Data on the cotton and yarn inventories of spinning mills are presented in figures [51][52] 3.3 International Market Situation - **CFTC Positions**: Data on CFTC fund and commercial net positions are presented in figures [55][56] - **US Planting Situation**: Data on the proportion of US cotton - planting areas without drought and the cotton good - to - excellent rate are presented in figures [57][58] - **US Production Situation**: Data on the bi - weekly and cumulative cotton processing volumes in the US are presented in figures [59][60] - **US Yield and Planting Area**: Data on the estimated US cotton yield and planting area are presented in figures [61][63] - **US Export Contract Progress**: Data on the US's current - year cumulative and weekly cotton export contract volumes are presented in figures [66][67] - **US Export Shipment Volume**: Data on the US's annual cumulative cotton export shipment volume and progress are presented in figures [68][69] - **US Supply and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: Data on the US cotton supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio are presented in figures [70] - **Brazil Yield and Planting Area**: Data on Brazil's cotton planting area and yield are presented in figures [71][72] - **Brazil Export Volume**: Data on Brazil's cotton export volume are presented in figures [74][75] - **Brazil Supply and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: Data on Brazil's cotton supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio are presented in figures [77] - **India Yield and Planting Area**: Data on India's cotton planting area and yield are presented in figures [79][80] - **India Consumption and Imports/Exports**: Data on India's cotton consumption, import, and export volumes are presented in figures [82][83] - **India Supply and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: Data on India's cotton supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio are presented in figures [85] 3.4 Spread Trend Review - **China Cotton Price Index and Basis**: Figures show the China cotton price index and the basis trend of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract [27] - **Import Profit**: Figures show the price differences inside and outside the country under 1% tariff and sliding - scale duty [29] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Spread**: Figures show the spreads of Zhengzhou cotton 1 - 5 and 9 - 1 [31] - **Regional Spread and Spinning Mill Profit**: Figures show the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread and the spinning mill's spot profit [32] - **US Cotton Spread**: Figures show the spreads of US cotton 12 - 3 and 7 - 12 contracts [34] - **External Market Spread**: Figures show the US - Brazil spread and the difference between FCindexM1% and CotlookA index 1% tariff [35]
银河期货棉系半年报:国际宏观变数大,低库存支撑棉价
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 11:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the case that the purchase of new cotton has a relatively limited boost to the market, if there is no obvious improvement in the demand side, cotton prices may weaken; if the demand side performs well, it will form a certain bullish drive for the market [5][50][57] - Considering the high uncertainty of macro - factors this year, with the expiration of the US global tariff extension in July and the Sino - US tariff extension in August, there may be great uncertainties. If the tariff issue eases, it will bring an optimistic impact on the market, and commodity prices may strengthen [5][57] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In the first half of the year, cotton prices were mainly affected by macro factors. Due to the lack of obvious changes in the fundamentals, cotton prices oscillated initially. In April, Trump's global tariff increase led to a pessimistic market outlook on the global economy, causing cotton prices to fall to around 12,400. Later, due to the easing of Trump's tariff attitude and better - than - expected Sino - US negotiations in Switzerland, cotton prices rebounded and then entered an oscillatory adjustment phase [4][9] - In the first half of the year, the fundamentals of US cotton changed little, and there were no obvious contradictions. The signing situation was acceptable. Although China's signing volume decreased significantly, the signing volume of other Southeast Asian countries increased significantly. Overall, US cotton prices oscillated within a range [4][9] 3.2 International Market - In the 2025/26 season, global cotton supply and consumption both decreased. Total supply decreased by 170,000 tons to 2.547 million tons, and total demand decreased by 70,000 tons to 2.563 million tons. Both are at medium levels over the years, and it is expected that there will be no obvious supply - demand contradiction in the global cotton market [9][52] - Currently, the El Niño index indicates neither a La Niña nor an El Niño phenomenon, and the probability of extreme weather in the future is expected to be small [9][52] 3.3 United States - US cotton production is slightly reduced compared to the previous year. According to the latest USDA production and sales forecast, the current US cotton production is expected to be 3.04 million tons. Although the drought situation has improved recently, the abandonment rate may increase later, which will affect US cotton production [14][53] - As of June 22, the cotton planting rate in 15 major cotton - growing states in the US was 92%, 1 percentage point slower than the same period last year and 3 percentage points slower than the average of the past five years. The good - to - excellent rate was 47%, 9 percentage points lower than the same period last year and the same as the five - year average [14] - The signing performance of US cotton is poor. As of June 12, the cumulative signing volume of US cotton was 2.64 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%; the cumulative shipment volume was 2.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3% [15] 3.4 Other Countries - As of June 16, 2025, the cotton planting area in India in the 2025/26 season was 3.125 million hectares, 214,000 hectares higher than the same period last year. As of the week of June 22, 2025, the weekly cotton listing volume in India was 174,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 501%; the cumulative cotton listing volume in the 2024/25 season was 4.9075 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5% [26] - As of the week from June 12 to June 18, 2025, the weekly rainfall in India's main cotton - growing areas (93.6%) was 60.6 mm, 22.2 mm higher than the normal level and 24 mm higher than the same period last year [26] - As of the week of June 21, the total cotton harvesting progress in Brazil (98%) was 4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.2 percentage points and 0.9 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The 2024/25 season's Brazilian cotton total production is expected to be 3.913 million tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous month [29] 3.5 Domestic Market - In the first stage before the new cotton is listed, China's cotton supply may be tight due to the fast de - stocking of commercial inventory and the lowest import volume of cotton in the same period over the years. Although the demand is currently in the off - season, it is expected that Zhengzhou cotton prices will oscillate slightly stronger [32][54] - As of June 20, the cumulative sales volume of 2024 - season cotton was 6.12 million tons, and the sales progress was 91.7% [32] - As of mid - June, China's cotton commercial inventory was 3.12 million tons, and the Xinjiang inventory was 1.97 million tons. The export speed has been fast in recent months, and the commercial inventory is at a low level in the same period over the years [33] - In May 2025, China's cotton import volume was 34,500 tons, a record low in nearly 20 years. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 432,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.6% [33] - In May, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles in China were 122.5 billion yuan, and the cumulative retail sales from January to May were 613.8 billion yuan, at a high level in the same period over the years. In May, textile and clothing exports were 26.21 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [34] - In the second stage, considering the increase in the cotton planting area in the 2025/26 season, the production is expected to be similar to or slightly higher than that in the 2024/25 season. The purchase price of new cotton may not be high, and its boost to the market may be limited. If the demand improves, it will have a bullish impact on cotton prices; otherwise, it will be bearish [47][54][55] 3.6 Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Internationally, the supply - demand contradiction in the global cotton market is not obvious in the 2025/26 season. The production of US cotton may be affected by the abandonment rate, and the signing performance is poor. The future trading logic of US cotton will gradually shift to weather factors [52][53][54] - Domestically, before the new cotton is listed, Zhengzhou cotton prices are expected to oscillate slightly stronger. After that, if the demand side improves, it will have a bullish impact on cotton prices; otherwise, it will be bearish [54][55] - Strategy recommendations: It is expected that US cotton will mostly oscillate in the future, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [6]
棉花早报-20250624
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 01:34
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年6月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询证号: Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花: 1、基本面:USDA6月报:25/26年度产量2547.2万吨,消费2563.8万吨,期末库存 1672.1万吨。ICAC6月报:25/26年度产量2600万吨,消费2570万吨。海关:5月纺织品 服装出口262.1亿美元,同比0.6%。5月份我国棉花进口4万吨,同比减少86.3%;棉纱 进口10万吨,同比减少16.67%。农村部6月25/26年度:产量625万吨,进口140万吨, 消费740万吨,期末库存823万吨。中性。 2、基差:现货3128b全国均价14894,基差1429(09合约),升水期货;偏多。 ...
棉花周报:美棉继续走低,郑棉震荡运行-20250623
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 12:18
Group 1: Report's Core View - This week, cotton prices showed a volatile trend. Abroad, the weather in US cotton - growing areas has been favorable recently, with increased rainfall alleviating the poor soil moisture in the western regions. As of June 17, the drought - affected area in US cotton - growing areas dropped to 3%, lower than last year. Last week, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 48%, at the average level of previous years. US cotton export net sales reached 358,100 bales last week, a significant increase. The external market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with US crude oil rebounding after a decline due to geopolitical factors and the US dollar index stabilizing as the Fed maintains the interest rate. In the domestic supply side, the current commercial cotton inventory is continuously being consumed, and cotton imports are scarce. The downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in a lackluster cotton price under the situation of weak supply and demand. The new cotton sowing in Xinjiang is completed, and the weather in the growing areas is normal, with good cotton growth. The strategy is that with the mix of bullish and bearish factors, US cotton prices continue to decline. Currently, the new cotton sowing in China is completed, the weather in growing areas is favorable, the commercial inventory is decreasing, and cotton imports are low. Under the weak supply - demand situation, the cotton price remains stable. Waiting for new guidance, the Zhengzhou cotton will continue to move in a volatile manner in the short term [6]. Group 2: Market Performance Review - As of the close on June 20, the ICE US cotton 12 contract closed at 66.76 cents per pound, down 1.14 points from last week's close, with a weekly decline of 1.68%. The CF2509 contract closed at 13,495 yuan per ton, unchanged from last week [8]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis US Cotton Sowing and Growth - As of the week of June 15, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 48% (49% the previous week, 54% in the same period last year), the planting rate was 85% (76% the previous week, 89% last year, with a five - year average of 90%), the boll - setting rate was 3% (5% last year, five - year average of 3%), and the budding rate was 19% (12% the previous week, 21% last year, five - year average of 17%) [16]. US Cotton Exports - As of the week of June 12, the net export sales of US 2024/2025 upland cotton were 83,000 bales (60,000 bales the previous week), the net sales of 2025/2026 upland cotton were 275,000 bales (36,000 bales the previous week), and the export shipments were 205,000 bales (236,000 bales the previous week) [21]. Domestic Spinning Mills' Operation - As of June 19, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 71.7%, a 0.69% decline from the previous week. Spinning mills have limited new orders. Small and medium - sized spinning mills in the inland areas often operate in staggered shifts, with the operating rate reduced to 50% - 60%. The operation of Xinjiang spinning mills is basically stable, maintaining at 80% - 90% [25]. Domestic Spinning Mills' Inventory - As of the week of June 19, the inventory of mainstream spinning mills in terms of cotton storage days was 28.2 days. As of June 19, the yarn inventory of major spinning mills was 30.5 days, a 1.33% increase from the previous week. Currently, the operating rate of Foshan grey fabric factories is 20% - 30%, and the overall raw material procurement is cautious. The raw material inventory of yarn enterprises has accumulated, with the inventory of some large factories in Xinjiang around 35 - 40 days and that of inland enterprises around 17 - 28 days [28]. Domestic Cotton Inventory - As of June 20, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.9915 million tons, a decrease of 106,500 tons (3.44% decline) from the previous week. Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 2.1193 million tons, a decrease of 87,100 tons (3.95% decline) from the previous week, and the commercial cotton in inland areas was 447,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (0.22% decline) from the previous week. As of June 19, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 4.15% from the previous week, with a total inventory of 424,700 tons, and the inventory continued to decline during the week [30].