Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The cotton market shows strong supply and demand [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,800 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.25%, and its night - session closing price was 13,720 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.58%. CY2601 closed at 20,005 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.20%, and its night - session closing price was 19,915 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.45%. ICE cotton 3 closed at 64.61 cents/pound with a decline of 0.05%. The trading volume of CF2601 was 335,581 lots, a decrease of 27,273 lots from the previous day, and its position was 1,046,477 lots, an increase of 30,263 lots. The trading volume of CY2601 was 2,484 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and its position was 5,997 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 2,499, an increase of 96 from the previous day, with 2,147 valid forecasts (unchanged). The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 14 (unchanged), with 0 valid forecasts and an increase of 14 from the previous day [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,696 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton (0.20%) from the previous day. The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,693 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton (0.20%) from the previous day. The price in Shandong was 15,010 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton (0.19%) from the previous day. The price in Hebei was 14,912 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton (0.30%) from the previous day. The 3128B index was 14,980 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan/ton (0.29%) from the previous day. The international cotton index M was 72.64 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.10% from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 was 20,770 yuan/ton (unchanged), and its arrival price was 20,984 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton (- 0.02%) from the previous day [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading remained weak, with some hedging transactions. The mainstream basis of spot changed little, some high - basis goods were slightly reduced, and the fixed - price quotes were slightly increased. The mainstream sales basis of 2025/26 Beijiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurities within 3.5 was mostly at CF01 + 900 and above, and the number of 31 - grade products with the same quality and quote increased this week. For 2025/26 machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B in both north and south Xinjiang with impurities within 3, many quotes had a basis of CF01 + 1400 - 1600 for mainland self - pick - up [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price of pure - cotton yarn was locally increased by 100 - 200, but the actual transactions had no obvious follow - up. To relieve the profit pressure, some large spinning enterprises raised the yarn price. Orders for high - count and combed yarns used for high - end fabrics were relatively stable, while the trading of other categories was weak [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures fluctuated slightly yesterday. Affected by the interest - rate cut expectation, the risk appetite of the overall financial market was good, and the bargain - hunting buying continued to support ICE cotton [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International market: Macro factors have some support, but it is far from enough to drive continuous upward movement. The fundamentals show both bullish and bearish signals, with minor contradictions. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term. [11] - Domestic market: There is still supply pressure, but the future outlook is not pessimistic. The cotton price center is expected to move up slowly. It is advisable to consider buying out - of - the - money call options on the 05 contract and selling out - of - the - money put options on the 05 contract with a lower degree of out - of - the - money. [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase year - on - year. The current peak supply pressure in the Northern Hemisphere will continue for some time. The USDA November report predicts that the global cotton production in 2025/26 will be 26.145 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 523,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.7%. [6] - In China, cotton picking and sales are basically completed. As of November 20, the new cotton processing volume was 4.631 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4 million tons, and the processing rate was 64.2%, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%. As of November 27, the national cotton inspection volume was 4.0489 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 539,400 tons. [6] 3.2 Demand - In Xinjiang, textile enterprises have good profits and stable operation. In October, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, needles, and textiles increased month - on - month, and the year - on - year growth rate exceeded that of social retail sales. [7] - As of the week of November 28, the comprehensive load of yarn was 51.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 percentage points; the load of pure cotton yarn mills was 48%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 percentage points. The comprehensive load of staple fiber cloth was 51.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 percentage points; the load of all - cotton grey cloth was 49.5%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 percentage points. [7] 3.3 Import and Export - US cotton export data is only available until early October, showing a year - on - year decline. China's clothing exports have seen an increased year - on - year decline due to multiple factors, but there should be some improvement after the Sino - US tariff adjustment. [8] - In October, the export value of China's textile yarns, fabrics and related products was $11.258 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 9.1%; the cumulative export from January to October was $117.735 billion, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. The export value of clothing and clothing accessories in October was $11.003 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 15.96%; the cumulative export from January to October was $126.201 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. [8] - In October, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons; the import volume of cotton yarn was 140,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons. [8] 3.4 Inventory - China's cotton industrial and commercial inventories are increasing, but the commercial inventory has decreased year - on - year. In November, old warehouse receipts expired, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The terminal textile and clothing inventory is expected to gradually decline. [9] - As of mid - November, China's cotton commercial inventory was 3.6397 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 709,100 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 209,300 tons; the industrial inventory was 931,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 59,400 tons. [9] - As of the week of November 28, the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.94 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.36 days; the comprehensive inventory of staple fiber cloth was 30.1 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.42 days. [9] 3.5 Price - The center of the cotton spot price has moved up slightly. The prices in various regions such as China, Xinjiang, Henan, Shandong, and Zhejiang have all increased to varying degrees. [20][22] - The 1 - 5 spread of cotton has gradually strengthened. The 1 - 5 spread on November 28 was 40 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 45 yuan/ton. [27][29] - The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton under the 1% tariff has strengthened. The price difference on November 28 was 1,961 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 184 yuan/ton. [30][31] - The price of cotton yarn futures has strengthened. The closing price of cotton yarn on November 28 was 20,090 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 295 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.49%. [33][35] - The basis of cotton yarn has gradually converged. The basis of cotton yarn on November 28 was 650 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 75 yuan/ton. [37][38]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 谢威 从业资格证号：F03087820 投资咨询证号：Z0019508 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PARTONE 主要观点及策略概述 棉花：需求阶段性改善，关注供应端潜在利多 【棉花（CF)】 需求阶段性改善，关注供应端潜在利多 国贸期货农产品研究中心 2025-12-01 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | 目前仍处于新棉加工检验集中上量期间，预计持续至四季度末，新棉集中上市对现货的卖压还在持续。市场预期明年1-2月中央一号文件将下调未来三年的 棉花目标直补价格，明年3月国内外种植意向面积也有调降可能，4月是国内产区天气季节性炒作窗口，金三银四是传统需求旺季。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | 目前下游纱厂原料库存偏低，补库意愿较为积极，同时在当前期现估值偏低的大背景下，四季度末至明年一季度初的春节前，季节性节前补 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton continued to fluctuate upwards, reaching a short - term rebound high. The short - term trend of futures is an upward fluctuation. As the 01 contract approaches delivery, trading is shifting to the 05 contract [5][6]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include a slight increase in the purchase price of seed cotton, a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory, and a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US. Negative factors are a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and the current traditional off - season for consumption [7][8]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Previous Day Review and This Week's Review - This week, cotton continued to fluctuate upwards, reaching a short - term rebound high. In October, textile and clothing exports were $22.62 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 12.63%. In October, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 15.6%, and imported 140,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 16.7% [5]. 2. Daily Prompt - Positive factors: The purchase price of seed cotton has risen slightly, commercial inventory has decreased year - on - year, and export tariffs to the US have been reduced by 10% compared to the previous period. Negative factors: Overall foreign trade orders have declined, inventory has increased, new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and it is currently the traditional off - season for consumption [7][8]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to be 26.145 million tons, consumption is 25.883 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.532 million tons [13][14]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton area is 30.41385 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 835.13 kg/ha, the production is 25.39956 million tons, the consumption is 25.00778 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons [16]. - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to be 6.6 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.45 million tons [17]. 5. Position Data No information provided in the report.

缺少强驱动， 单边上涨概率不高 棉花周报 2025/11/29 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 国内市场情况 02 价差走势回顾 04 国际市场情况 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 市场回顾：外盘方面，本周美棉花期货价格小幅反弹，截至周五美棉花期货3月合约收盘价报64.73美分/磅，较之前一周上涨0.8美分/磅， 涨幅1.25%。价差方面，美棉3-5月差震荡，报-1.24美分/磅，较之前一周下跌0.02美分/磅。国内方面，本周郑棉价格延续震荡，截至周五 郑棉1月合约收盘价报13725元/吨，较之前一周上涨265元/吨，涨幅1.97%。中国棉花价格指数(CCIndex)3128B报14896元/吨，较之前一周上 涨105元/吨。基差走弱，报1189元/吨，较之前一周下跌132元/吨。郑棉1-5月差震荡，报40元/吨，较之前一周上涨25元/吨。 ◆ 行业信息：据Mysteel最新公布的数据显示，截至11月28日当周，纺纱厂开机率为 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract 2601 rose, with a weekly increase of about 1.97%. The domestic cotton market has a loose supply - demand situation. The new cotton purchase is almost over, but the sales of new flowers are slow, and the port inventory remains high. The downstream demand has not improved significantly, with fewer new orders for textile enterprises and a slow - down in the shipment of cotton yarn [5]. - Future trading should focus on changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory levels. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract 2601 rose, with a weekly increase of about 1.97% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, the new cotton purchase is near the end, and the cost is fixed with the price of seed cotton. However, the sales of new flowers are significantly slow, and the market digestion is slower than expected. The port inventory remains high. As of November 27, the inventory of imported cotton in major ports increased by 1.28% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 380,300 tons. The shipment in RMB is limited, with more imports than exports and light market trading. On the demand side, the downstream demand has not improved significantly. Textile enterprises have significantly fewer new orders, the shipment of cotton yarn has slowed down, and the overall market transaction atmosphere is weak. The current loose supply - demand situation continues. In the future, attention should be paid to whether the actual restocking willingness improves and macro - dynamics [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: As of October 7, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 70,902 lots, a decrease of 1,689 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 129,324 lots, an increase of 6,748 lots from the previous week; the net short position was 58,422 lots, an increase of 8,437 lots from the previous week. The price of the US cotton March contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 1.06% [8][11]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: For the week ending October 9, US current - year cotton export sales increased by 157,600 bales net, a decrease of 21% from the previous week and an increase of 1% from the average of the previous four weeks. The current international cotton spot price is 74.5 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.15 cents per pound from last week [15]. - **Futures Market**: The price of Zhengzhou cotton contract 2601 rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 1.97%. The cotton yarn futures contract 2601 increased by about 1.85%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 123,629 lots, and that in cotton yarn futures was - 764 lots. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,408, and that of cotton yarn futures was 14 [20][26][30]. - **Spot Market**: As of November 28, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,896 yuan per ton. The national purchase price of seed cotton 3128B was 3.15 yuan per 500 grams, and that in Xinjiang was 3.42 yuan per 500 grams. The price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,660 yuan per ton, CY index: OEC10s (rotor - spun yarn) was 14,700 yuan per ton, and CY index: OEC10s (combed yarn) was 23,670 yuan per ton [39][42][54]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of November 27, the sliding - scale duty price of imported cotton was 13,895 yuan per ton, an increase of 52 yuan per ton from last week; the quota price of imported cotton was 12,866 yuan per ton, an increase of 82 yuan per ton from last week. As of November 26, the import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick - up price: C21S was 19,987 yuan per ton; C32S was 21,097 yuan per ton; JC32S was 22,870 yuan per ton [58]. - **Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit**: As of November 27, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 987 yuan per ton, an increase of 39 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1,940 yuan per ton, an increase of 9 yuan per ton from last week [61]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: - **Commercial Cotton Inventory**: At the end of October, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.9306 million tons, an increase of 1.9089 million tons from the previous month, a growth rate of 186.84%, and 43,400 tons higher than the same period last year. As of the end of October, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 888,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 61,000 tons and a month - on - month increase of 42,700 tons [64]. - **Imported Cotton Quantity**: In October 2025, China's total cotton imports were about 90,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons or 15.6%. In October 2025, China imported 140,000 tons of cotton yarn, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons [70]. - **Demand Side**: - **Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventory**: As of October 15, 2025, the yarn inventory days were 25.24 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.57%; the grey cloth inventory days were 31.43 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.00% [73]. - **Textile and Garment Exports**: In October 2025, China's textile and garment exports were 22.26 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.8%. Among them, textile exports were 11.258 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 9.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.9%; garment exports were 11 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 16.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.6% [78]. - **Domestic Garment Retail Sales**: As of October 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing were 864.54 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 13.90%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of clothing retail sales was 2.9%, a month - on - month increase of 20.83% [82]. 3.4 Options and Stock - related Markets - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week is presented in the relevant chart, but no specific data analysis is provided [83]. - **Stock Market**: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. is shown in the chart, but no specific data analysis is provided [86].

| | | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | 一、行情回顾 | | 3 | | 二、国际市场 | | 3 | | | | 三、美国 4 | | 四、其他国家 | | 4 | | 五、国内市场 | | 6 | | 第三部分 | | 后市展望及策略推荐 9 | | | | 免责声明 10 | 棉系板块研发报告 棉系 12 月报 2025 年 11 月 28 基本面矛盾不大 棉价区间震荡 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 11 月棉花期货价格区间震荡为主，供应端随着新棉收购基本进入尾声， 收购成本区域固化，目前普遍收购价格在 6.1-6.4 元/公斤；需求端下游整 体订单表现一般，对盘面提振有限。 10 月美棉基本面变化不大，预计整体走势仍然以区间震荡为主。 【市场展望】 基本面方面，随着新花开始大量上市，供应端预计维持宽松局面，近期 盘面有所上涨，考虑到当前盘面价格接近收购成本，市场可能会有一定的卖 套保压力。需求端来看， ...

郑棉：多空交织下还能再涨吗 弘业期货农产品研究团队 2025/11/28 王晓蓓 从业资格号:F0272777 投资咨询证号：Z0010085 郑棉：多空交织下还能再涨吗 核心观点 市场对增产仍有预期，较高成本皮棉等待套保机会，较低成本皮棉可顺价出售，郑棉套保压力不集中， 不过仍有套保压力；下游需求一般，产成品累库不过整体库存压力不大。现货皮棉基差坚挺、年底下游补 库预期支撑；上方有增产及套保压力，市场暂缺新驱动，预期郑棉短期内维持震荡；长期来看或有上涨机 会。 关注：宏观、需求、政策 美棉销售进度偏慢，中国签约量少 美农周度出口报告显示，截止10月9日当周，2025/26年度美棉总签售量为106.55万吨，占年度预测总出 口量的41%，同比偏慢9个百分点，较过去三年同期均值偏慢15个百分点；累计出口装运量为31.85万吨，占 年度总签约量的30%，较去年同期偏快6个百分点，是近四年同期最快。其中，中国对本年度美棉的签约量仅 有2.8万吨。 国内新棉销售同比偏快 截至11月25日，全国新棉检验量为386.9万吨，同比增加15.88%。 郑棉：多空交织下还能再涨吗 据国家棉花市场监测调查数据显示，截至2025年 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The near - month cotton contracts perform stronger than the forward contracts [1]. - The ICE cotton futures continued the rebound trend, influenced by the rise in crude oil prices and commercial bargain - hunting [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2601 closed at 13,585 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.93%, and 13,620 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.26% increase. Its trading volume was 428,347 lots, an increase of 132,909 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 960,358 lots, an increase of 14,617 lots [1]. - CY2601 closed at 20,075 yuan/ton yesterday with a 1.77% increase, and 20,090 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.07% increase. Its trading volume was 24,063 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 21,700 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - ICE cotton No.3 closed at 64.08 cents/pound yesterday with a 0.23% increase [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 2,240, a decrease of 4 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 1,294, an increase of 73 [1]. - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 14, a decrease of 3 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 17 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: - The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,496 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan or 0.83% from the previous day [1]. - The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,493 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan or 0.91% from the previous day [1]. - The price in Shandong was 14,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan or - 0.01% from the previous day [1]. - The price in Hebei was 14,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan or - 0.34% from the previous day [1]. - The 3128B index was 14,793 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan or - 0.02% from the previous day [1]. - The international cotton index M was 71.87 cents/pound, an increase of 0.14% from the previous day [1]. - The price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 20,590 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The arrival price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 21,084 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan or - 0.10% from the previous day [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The CF1 - 5 spread was 40 yuan/ton more than the previous day's spread [1]. - The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 10 yuan less than the previous day's spread [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The spot trading of domestic cotton was stable with little change. Spinning mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases with weak purchasing willingness. The spot fixed - price quotes were stable, and the prices were basically the same as those of point - price transactions. The spot sales basis was stable [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The prices of pure - cotton yarn were generally stable, and the overall market sales were sluggish. Recently, the high - count pure - cotton yarn sold relatively well, while the trading of other counts was slow, and the overall sales volume continued to decline. Some large spinning mills in the inland offered discounts to reduce inventory, and some small and medium - sized spinning mills switched to order - based production. There was no obvious inventory pressure, but they generally reported a decrease in orders. The market was mainly in a wait - and - see mode, with small - order transactions. Attention should be paid to the spring orders in the future [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures continued the rebound trend, influenced by the rise in crude oil prices and commercial bargain - hunting [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report From the fundamental perspective, demand is not too bad after the peak season. The downstream operating rate remains at a moderately weak level, and the previous decline in the futures market has digested the bearish impact of a bumper harvest. Currently, there is no strong driving force for the market, and it is expected that cotton prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The price of US cotton futures fluctuated this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the March contract of US cotton futures was reported at 63.93 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.21 cents per pound or 0.33% from the previous week. The spread between the March - May contracts of US cotton fluctuated, reported at -1.26 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.08 cents per pound from the previous week. Domestically, the price of Zhengzhou cotton continued to fluctuate. As of Friday, the closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton was reported at 13,460 yuan per ton, an increase of 10 yuan per ton or 0.07% from the previous week. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 14,371 yuan per ton, a decrease of 435 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis weakened, reported at 917 yuan per ton, a decrease of 425 yuan per ton from the previous week. The spread between the January - May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated, reported at 15 yuan per ton, an increase of 35 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. - **Industry Information**: According to the latest monthly supply - demand report data from the USDA, the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared to the September estimate. Among them, the production in the US increased by 190,000 tons to 3.07 million tons; the production in Brazil increased by 110,000 tons to 4.08 million tons; the production in India remained at the estimated 5.23 million tons; and the production in China increased by 220,000 tons to 7.29 million tons. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, in October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36%. According to the latest data released by Mysteel, as of the week of November 14, the operating rate of spinning mills was 65.5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous week, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points from the same period last year, and a decrease of 7.1 percentage points compared to the average of the past five years (72.6%); the national commercial cotton inventory was 3.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 370,000 tons [9]. - **View and Strategy**: It is expected that cotton prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term. The trading strategy recommendation is to wait and see [9][11]. 2. Spread Trend Review The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, the basis trend of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, and spreads of US cotton contracts, etc., to show the historical trends of various spreads [23]. 3. Domestic Market Situation - **Cotton Production**: Charts show the processing and inspection quantity of Chinese cotton and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton [37]. - **Cotton Imports**: The monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of Chinese cotton are presented, as well as the cumulative and weekly export contract volumes of the US to China [39][42]. - **Cotton Yarn Imports**: The monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of Chinese cotton yarn are shown [44]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills are presented [47]. - **Sales Progress**: The national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City are shown [49]. - **Cotton Inventory**: The weekly commercial inventory of Chinese cotton and the combined commercial and industrial monthly inventory are presented, as well as the raw material and finished product inventories of spinning mills [52][54]. 4. International Market Situation - **US Situation**: Charts show the proportion of US cotton - growing areas without drought, the good - excellent rate of US cotton, production, planting area, export contract progress, export shipment volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - consumption ratio [58]. - **Brazil Situation**: The planting area, production, and export volume of Brazilian cotton, as well as supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio are presented [70]. - **India Situation**: The planting area, production, consumption, import - export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - consumption ratio of Indian cotton are shown [78].