"现在，劳动力市场的下行风险，比通胀那点事儿更值得咱们盯着。" 文|有风 编辑|有风 12月12日，费城联储主席AnnaPaulson一句话让华尔街炸了。 这话可不是随口说的，就在几天前，美联储刚宣布年内第三次降息，把利率砍到了3.5%-3.75%。 从上半年死磕通胀，到现在转头盯着就业，美联储这风向变得比翻书还快。 Paulson为啥突然把劳动力市场当"头等大事"？ Paulson在讲话里提到的招聘市场现状，听着就挺让人揪心。 医疗保健、社会服务这些行业还在招人，其他地方基本都停了。 这可不是好信号，就像一棵大树，看着叶子还绿，树干已经有点弯了。 我翻了翻劳工部的数据，11月失业率3.7%，看着还行，但劳动参与率一直没回到疫情前。 这就像考试分数看着不错，其实好多题是蒙对的，底子虚得很。 Paulson倒是对通胀挺乐观，觉得明年大概率能降下来。 为啥这么有信心？他说关税对物价的影响，明年年中就该消退了。 这话我信一半，毕竟2018年那波关税加完，物价涨了好一阵子才稳住。 现在美联储手里的利率3.5%-3.75%，Paulson觉得还能压住通胀，所以先顾就业。 但现在的经济跟那会儿不一样，那会儿没这么多幺蛾子 ...

12月16日，A股市场整体下跌。 截至收盘，上证指数收报3824.81点，下跌1.11%；深证成指收报12914.67点，下跌1.51%；创业板指收报3071.76点，下跌2.1%。两市合计成交17241.73亿元，较上一 交易日减少492.66亿元。 1. 两市主力资金净流出超520亿元 今日沪深两市主力资金开盘净流出188.21亿元，尾盘净流出55.16亿元，两市全天主力资金净流出520.66亿元。 3.美容护理行业实现净流入 | 行业 | 涨跌幅 | 净流入资金 | 资金流入较多个股 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | | | 美容护理 | 0. 32% | 1.42 | 爱美客 | | 商贸零售 | 1. 32% | -1. 62 | 供销大集 | | 社会服务 | -0. 29% | -3. 10 | 中公教育 | | 食品饮料 | 0. 28% | -4. 12 | 伊利股份 | | 综合 | -2. 33% | -4. 55 | 南京新自 | | | | 资金净流出居前的行业 | | | 行业 | 涨跌幅 | 净流入资金 | 资金流出较多个股 | | ...

沪指12月16日下跌1.11%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有3个，涨幅居前的行业为商贸零售、美容护 理、社会服务，涨幅分别为1.32%、0.66%、0.13%。社会服务行业位居今日涨幅榜第三。跌幅居前的行 业为通信、有色金属，跌幅分别为2.95%、2.81%。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流出701.17亿元，今日有5个行业主力资金净流入，商贸零售行业主 力资金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨1.32%，全天净流入资金38.18亿元，其次是食品饮料行业，日 跌幅为0.02%，净流入资金为3.02亿元。 主力资金净流出的行业有26个，电力设备行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金131.01亿元， 其次是电子行业，净流出资金为116.07亿元，净流出资金较多的还有通信、有色金属、机械设备等行 业。 社会服务行业资金流向排名 社会服务行业今日上涨0.13%，全天主力资金净流入1.34亿元，该行业所属的个股共79只，今日上涨的 有32只，涨停的有1只；下跌的有44只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入的个股有26只， 其中，净流入资金超3000万元的有5只，净流入资金居首的是中公教育，今日净流入资金4.2 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [44]. Core Insights - In November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China reached 43,898 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, reflecting a significant decline in growth rates both year-on-year and month-on-month [10][11]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November increased by 0.7% year-on-year, up from 0.2% in October, indicating rising inflationary pressures [10]. - Retail sales growth for goods and dining both saw a month-on-month decline, with goods retailing growing by 1.0% year-on-year and dining income increasing by 3.2% year-on-year [11][12]. - Online retail sales from January to November 2025 totaled 144,582 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, which accounted for 31.7% of total retail sales [34]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - The total retail sales of consumer goods in November 2025 were 43,898 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points from the previous year and a month-on-month decline of 1.6 percentage points [10][11]. Segment Analysis - In November, among 16 categories of goods, 7 categories (including daily necessities, tobacco and alcohol, home appliances, furniture, petroleum products, automobiles, and building materials) experienced negative growth. Only the Chinese and Western medicine category saw an increase in growth rate [17][18]. - The cultural and office supplies category and communication equipment category showed strong growth, both exceeding 11% [17]. Online Retail - Cumulative online retail sales from January to November reached 144,582 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.1%, which is an increase of 1.7 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [34][36]. - The physical goods online retail sales amounted to 118,193 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [34]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as food and beverage, social services, and retail, particularly highlighting opportunities in the liquor industry, consumer goods, and tourism sectors due to expected policy support for domestic consumption [38][39][42].

| 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商贸零售 | 1.85 | 308.27 | 61.38 | 永辉超市 | 10.10 | | 美容护理 | 1.21 | 24.77 | 21.85 | 百亚股份 | 3.73 | | 社会服务 | 0.23 | 74.81 | 30.43 | 中公教育 | 9.92 | | 食品饮料 | -0.18 | 180.17 | -1.44 | 交大昂立 | -5.53 | | 纺织服饰 | -0.28 | 65.88 | -2.50 | 兴业科技 | -5.19 | | 家用电器 | -0.32 | 97.81 | -18.71 | 海立股份 | -3.82 | | 农林牧渔 | -0.39 | 157.05 | -0.35 | 中粮糖业 | -5.41 | | 轻工制造 | -0.46 | 146.07 | -14.36 | 中源家居 | -10.01 | | 非银金融 | -0.47 | 178.60 | -22.24 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the consumer sector, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and consumption recovery [1]. Core Insights - The consumer sector experienced a decline across various segments, with notable drops in retail, social services, food and beverage, beauty care, home appliances, and textiles [3]. - High-end liquor, particularly Moutai, is showing signs of bottoming out despite a significant price drop, indicating potential recovery as demand stabilizes [3]. - The central economic work conference highlighted the commitment to boosting domestic consumption, with policies aimed at increasing residents' income and optimizing supply of quality goods and services [3]. - The report suggests focusing on service consumption sectors, which have room for growth compared to developed countries [3]. Summary by Sections Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector saw a broad decline, with specific weekly performance metrics indicating negative trends across various sub-sectors [3][5]. - Notable stock performances included significant gains for certain companies, while others faced substantial losses [3][13][14]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - Recent regulatory approvals and policy initiatives are expected to impact various sectors, including tourism and electric vehicles, with a focus on enhancing consumer experiences and market growth [15][16][19]. - Companies like Tim Hortons and others reported positive financial results, indicating resilience in the consumer market despite broader sector challenges [19][20].

经历了2021至2023年的持续三年低迷行情后，2024年以来港股市场已迈入"业绩+估值"双击的行情。 年初受大模型推出及AI商业化落地催化，中国资产重估行情启动，港股市场领衔上行，虽然四季度以 来港股市场有望承压，但年初至今的累计涨幅仍然亮眼，在全球主流市场指数中名列前茅，成功逆袭！ 恒生指数涨29.6%，其中的港股通标的更是"青出于蓝胜于蓝"，恒生港股通指数涨幅高达34.6%！ 今日，跟踪恒生港股通指数的恒生港股通ETF（520820）重磅上市！恒生港股通ETF（520820）囊括港 股重点板块稀缺资产，轻松布局港股互联网、创新药、新消费等优质龙头！ 数据截至2025.12.14 那么历经两年的估值修复后，港股市场在2026年又将有何表现呢？"指数投资"趋势下，又有哪些新工具 值得关注呢？ 【春山可望？2026年港股研判："乘势而上、迈向新高度"】 中信证券从多个维度剖析了港股市场2026年的配置价值，其中指出： 估值维度，当前港股仍是全球主要市场中的估值洼地，而计算当前的恒生指数ERP仍高达到5.7%。业绩 来看，当前Bloomberg一致预期显示恒生指数的2026E净利润同比增长8.5%。随着港股基本 ...

全球共振、内需回归、A 股上行 - A 股 2026 年投资策略 20251214 摘要 预计 2026 年中国 PPI 将显著上行，受益于国内投资回升、"十五"规 划重大项目落地、房地产政策推动以及美国中期选举带来的财政货币政 策共振，这将显著改善企业盈利。 A 股市场预计将从牛市第二阶段向第三阶段过渡，即从流动性驱动转向 盈利驱动，顺周期板块和渗透率提升的科技板块将表现更佳。2026 年 是"十四五"规划关键年，重大项目落地和地方政府投资将推动内需扩 张。 与过去不同，信用增速对总需求的影响减弱，财政支出成为关键驱动因 素。2026 年财政政策预计保持扩张，重点转向推动实物工作量和投资 端回升，重大项目将集中落地。 预计 2026 年 GDP 增速约为 5%，主要驱动力将从出口转向内需，投资 和消费需发力。出口增速可能下滑，因此需要投资达到 3%-5%的增长， 消费端超过 5%。 Q&A 2026 年 A 股市场的整体表现如何预判？ 2026 年将是中国"十五"规划的第一年，也是党的二十一大召开前的完整年 份，同时美国也将迎来中期选举。这些因素共同作用下，预计全球财政政策和 货币政策将形成共振，推动 PP ...

格隆汇12月14日丨招商证券研报指出，展望2026年作为中国"十五五"规划开局之年与美国中期选举年， 将形成关键的政策共振，推动PPI上行，A股从牛市II阶段向以盈利改善为驱动力的"牛市III阶段"过渡。 在过往两年赚钱效应不错和中高回报率资产荒的背景下，A股资金供需有望延续较大规模净流入，为实 现慢牛带来流动性支持。投资策略应把握"风格切换觅周期，双轮驱动看长远"的核心思路，投资机会围 绕"内需复苏"与"科技自立"两大主轴展开。风格方面，大小盘均衡，顺周期风格有望持续占优，行业层 面，关注顺周期与产能出清、科技创新与优势制造、扩内需三条线索，重点关注有色金属、机械设备、 电力设备、电子、传媒、社会服务等行业。 ...

Group 1: AI Products - The article discusses the intensive release of edge AI products, highlighting the growing trend in the technology sector [34]. Group 2: Military Industry Insights - Insights on the military industry are presented, focusing on recent developments and trends that may impact investment opportunities [6][7]. Group 3: Industry Configuration Model - A review and update of the industry configuration model is scheduled, indicating ongoing analysis and adjustments in response to market conditions [35]. Group 4: Exhibition Management Discussion - A discussion with the management of Miao Exhibition is planned, which may provide insights into the service industry and its current challenges [34]. Group 5: Chemical Industry Investment Opportunities - An exchange on investment opportunities in the chemical industry for 2026 is set, suggesting potential growth areas for investors [34]. Group 6: Retail Changes - A session discussing new changes in the retail sector is scheduled, reflecting shifts in consumer behavior and market dynamics [34].