Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37% on September 17, with 20 industries experiencing gains, led by the power equipment and automotive sectors, which increased by 2.55% and 2.05% respectively [1] - Conversely, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors, along with retail trade, saw declines of 1.02% and 0.98% respectively [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital outflow from the two markets totaled 38.306 billion yuan, with five industries seeing net inflows [1] - The power equipment industry led the net inflow with 1.835 billion yuan, followed by the automotive sector with 1.142 billion yuan [1] - A total of 26 industries experienced net capital outflows, with the non-bank financial sector leading at 5.229 billion yuan, followed by the computer industry with 4.455 billion yuan [1] Social Services Sector Performance - The social services sector declined by 0.86%, with a net capital outflow of 1.211 billion yuan [2] - Out of 78 stocks in this sector, 18 rose, including one that hit the daily limit, while 60 fell [2] - The top net inflow stock in this sector was Yunnan Tourism, with a net inflow of 136 million yuan, followed by Ancar Detection and Emei Mountain A with inflows of 69.9 million yuan and 39.8 million yuan respectively [2][4] - The stocks with the highest net outflows included Caesar Travel, West Region Tourism, and Zhongxin Tourism, with outflows of 196 million yuan, 110 million yuan, and 90.7 million yuan respectively [2]

Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a narrow fluctuation in the morning of September 17, 2023, with a sudden collective rise in the three major indices around 10:30 AM, leading to all indices turning positive. The ChiNext Index rose over 1.5%, reaching a nearly three-year high, while the leading stock, CATL, hit a new high in its adjusted price [1][2] - By midday, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.02%, and the ChiNext Index saw a gain of 1.74% [2] Stock Highlights - CATL, a leading stock in the ChiNext Index, surged with its adjusted price reaching a historical high, with an intraday increase approaching 8%. Other notable stocks included Changying Precision, which saw an intraday rise exceeding 16%, along with Sanhua Group, Yilian Network, Xinwangda, and Changchuan Technology, which also performed strongly [4] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index rose significantly, reaching a nearly four-year high, with Baidu Group-SW experiencing an intraday increase of over 12% and a cumulative rise of over 40% since September [9][10] Sector Performance - In terms of sector performance, the top gainers included the electric equipment, automotive, coal, and home appliance sectors, while the social services and agriculture sectors faced declines [7]

宁德时代（300750）引爆行情。 A股市场今天早盘窄幅震荡，10:30左右三大股指突然集体拉升，其中创业板指走势强劲，盘中再度创出近三年多新高。截至中午收盘，上证指数上涨 0.41%，深证成指上涨1.02%，创业板指上涨1.74%。 创业板指成份股中，龙头股宁德时代大涨，盘中复权价再创历史新高，涨幅一度接近8%。长盈精密（300115）大涨，盘中涨幅一度超过16%。此外，三 环集团（300408）、亿联网络（300628）、欣旺达（300207）、长川科技（300604）等多股盘中涨幅也居于市场前列。 行业板块方面，若按照申万一级行业划分，电力设备、汽车、煤炭、家用电器等板块盘中涨幅居前，社会服务、农林牧渔等板块盘中跌幅居前。 *ST东通四个交易日股价"腰斩" A股市场今天（9月17日）早盘窄幅震荡，10:30左右三大股指突然集体拉升，并全部翻红。其中创业板指涨超1.5%，盘中创出近三年多新高，龙头股宁德 时代复权价再创新高。 港股市场今天上午亦整体上行，恒生指数盘中再度刷新近四年新高。 创业板指大涨 "宁王"复权价再创新高 今天上午*ST东通（300379）股价再度跌停，这是该股连续第3个交易日"20cm ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a new round of interest rate cuts, with a 95% probability of a 25 basis point "preventive rate cut" in September [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions to Rate Cuts - Historical analysis shows that "preventive rate cuts" and "recessionary rate cuts" have different impacts on major asset prices [3][4]. - Following preventive rate cuts, A-shares benefit from liquidity easing and improved risk appetite, particularly in sectors like TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications), food and beverage, social services, beauty care, and biomedicine [4][8]. - In contrast, during recessionary rate cuts, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks tend to decline due to global economic downturns, with defensive assets like non-bank financials, banks, and cyclical sectors such as petrochemicals and chemicals performing better [4][8]. Group 2: Sector Performance Analysis - Under preventive rate cuts, various sectors show significant average price changes: - Technology sector (Electronics) sees an average increase of 19.07% over 10 days, 35.64% over 30 days, and 33.10% over 60 days [8]. - Consumer sectors (Food & Beverage) experience increases of 16.14%, 22.26%, and 19.22% respectively [8]. - For recessionary rate cuts, sectors like non-essential consumer goods and technology also perform well, but defensive sectors like energy and telecommunications gain prominence [9]. Group 3: Broader Market Implications - The U.S. stock market is expected to respond positively to preventive rate cuts, with fundamentals driving overall market performance [9]. - The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are influenced by the same dynamics, with preventive cuts initially suppressing the dollar but later leading to an upward trend as fundamentals improve [11][14]. - Gold prices may initially rise due to liquidity easing but could decline as economic expectations improve and the dollar strengthens [16].

Market Performance Review - The A-share market recovered from last week's decline, with significant volatility remaining a characteristic feature. Major indices mostly rose, with the ChiNext index rebounding by 5.48% after a previous drop of 5.42%. The CSI A50 and SSE 50, which are heavily weighted by large-cap stocks, lagged behind in terms of growth. Growth style stocks showed a strong rebound, while financial stocks had smaller gains. Small-cap stocks significantly outperformed large-cap stocks, with the Ning and Mao indices both rising, the Ning combination increasing by 1.95% and the Mao index slightly up by 0.40% [3][12][29]. Industry Overview - The industry saw a general rebound but lacked a clear leading theme. Among the Shenwan first-level industries, electronics (6.15%), real estate (5.98%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (4.81%), media (4.27%), and non-ferrous metals (3.76%) led the gains. Conversely, sectors like social services (-0.28%), pharmaceuticals and biology (-0.36%), oil and petrochemicals (-0.41%), banking (-0.66%), and comprehensive (-1.43%) performed poorly. The current market is still entangled in narratives around AI infrastructure investment, potential Fed rate cuts, and anti-involution policies [4][13][29]. Future Outlook and Investment Views - The report suggests that lower volatility presents better participation opportunities. Although there was a significant single-day rise in the A-share market, it does not imply that short-term downward volatility risks have been fully alleviated. Intense bull-bear battles are common at the tail end of a trend, indicating that time is needed for consolidation before the next upward phase. Future volatility in the A-share market is expected to be more influenced by overseas factors, particularly following disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data in August, which solidifies expectations for a Fed rate cut in September. The A-share market will likely use the rate cut as a key pricing logic point after completing its adjustment [4][29]. Stock Selection Strategy - The report emphasizes that individual stock alpha logic is superior to industry beta logic, focusing on identifying "turnaround" opportunities in individual stocks. The TMT growth sectors, represented by AI applications, computing power chains, and optical modules, which have been adjusting since March, are expected to see valuation recovery opportunities. The report highlights that simply buying stocks with "earnings exceeding expectations" during the mid-year reporting season may not yield sustained relative returns. Instead, the "turnaround" strategy is deemed more effective for performance discovery during this period. The report constructs a portfolio of stocks expected to exceed earnings expectations for the mid-year report, aiming to capture excess returns from individual stock alpha in September and October [5][29].

Group 1 - The report maintains an optimistic outlook on the market, predicting a "systematic slow bull" trend with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to challenge the 0.618 retracement level of the largest decline since 2015, indicating ample bullish potential [4][68][69] - The report emphasizes a market style rotation favoring mid to large-cap stocks, with a focus on growth-oriented valuations, particularly in the consumer, cyclical, and growth sectors [5][81] - The report identifies three key "expectation gaps" for industry allocation: the dominance of large financials in market height, the need for investment and consumption to meet GDP growth targets, and the potential shift in technology investments from hardware to software sectors [6][84] Group 2 - The report highlights that the macroeconomic environment is expected to improve for growth, consumption, and cyclical styles, while financial and stable styles may see a decline [84] - The report notes that the recent policy measures have been supportive, with a focus on technology, real estate, and consumption, aligning with the current economic characteristics [12][18] - The report suggests that the construction of new policy financial tools is likely to support infrastructure investment growth, which may positively impact related sectors [18][84]

Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced the highest net inflow of capital today, amounting to 3.166 billion, with a price change of 1.44% and a turnover rate of 3.72% [1] - The electronics industry faced the largest net outflow of capital, totaling 8.773 billion, with a price change of -0.04% and a turnover rate of 3.81% [2] Industry Summary - **Automotive** - Trading volume: 8.261 billion - Change in trading volume: -0.47% - Turnover rate: 3.72% - Price change: 1.44% - Net capital inflow: 3.166 billion [1] - **Electronics** - Trading volume: 10.601 billion - Change in trading volume: -13.19% - Turnover rate: 3.81% - Price change: -0.04% - Net capital outflow: -8.773 billion [2] - **Media** - Trading volume: 5.930 billion - Change in trading volume: -2.46% - Turnover rate: 4.04% - Price change: 1.94% - Net capital inflow: 0.723 billion [1] - **Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery** - Trading volume: 2.976 billion - Change in trading volume: 4.55% - Turnover rate: 3.12% - Price change: 1.79% - Net capital inflow: 0.436 billion [1] - **Coal** - Trading volume: 2.343 billion - Change in trading volume: 10.37% - Turnover rate: 1.79% - Price change: 1.32% - Net capital inflow: 0.334 billion [1] - **Real Estate** - Trading volume: 7.917 billion - Change in trading volume: 6.39% - Turnover rate: 3.61% - Price change: 0.49% - Net capital outflow: -2.014 billion [2] - **Banking** - Trading volume: 4.541 billion - Change in trading volume: 1.16% - Turnover rate: 0.34% - Price change: -0.90% - Net capital outflow: -3.418 billion [2] - **Telecommunications** - Trading volume: 4.114 billion - Change in trading volume: -22.56% - Turnover rate: 2.35% - Price change: -1.52% - Net capital outflow: -6.633 billion [2] - **Computer** - Trading volume: 7.596 billion - Change in trading volume: -13.89% - Turnover rate: 4.25% - Price change: -0.24% - Net capital outflow: -7.220 billion [2]

证券研究报告 大消费行业周报 8月消费市场运行总体平稳， 核心CPI继续回升 平安证券研究所 大消费团队 证券分析师： 王萌 S1060522030001（证券投资咨询）邮箱：WANGMENG917@pingan.com.cn 胡琼方 S1060524010002（证券投资咨询）邮箱：HUQIONGFANG722@pingan.com.cn 王源 S1060524010001（证券投资咨询）邮箱：WANGYUAN468@pingan.com.cn 张晋溢 S1060521030001（证券投资咨询）邮箱：ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn 王星云 S1060523100001（证券投资咨询）邮箱：WANGXINGYUN937@pingan.com.cn 2025年9月15日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 本周观点 大消费行业周观点：8月消费市场运行总体平稳，核心CPI继续回升。本周大消费各子版块中，除消费者服务外均实现正增长，主要得益于整 体市场环境与资金面驱动。根据国家统计局，8月全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比持平，同比下降0.4%，主要是上年同期对比基数走高， 叠加食品价格涨幅低于季节 ...

（文章来源：证券时报网） 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，西域旅游所属的社会服务行业，目前整体涨幅为0.02%，行业内，目前股价 上涨的有33只，涨幅居前的有西域旅游、中公教育、凯文教育等，涨幅分别为3.16%、3.03%、2.70%。 股价下跌的有45只，跌幅居前的有国义招标、零点有数、ST东时等，跌幅分别为5.97%、3.61%、 3.49%。 公司发布的半年报数据显示，上半年公司共实现营业收入1.14亿元，同比增长9.59%，实现净利润 1122.65万元，同比下降61.78%，基本每股收益为0.0700元，加权平均净资产收益率1.57%。（数据宝） 西域旅游股价创出历史新高，截至9:39，该股上涨3.16%，股价报50.00元，成交量363.38万股，成交金 额1.79亿元，换手率2.34%，该股最新A股总市值达77.50亿元，该股A股流通市值77.50亿元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the consumer sector, with various sub-sectors showing significant gains in stock performance [2][3]. Core Insights - The consumer sector experienced a broad increase in stock prices, with notable weekly gains in food and beverage (+2.09%), beauty care (+1.78%), retail (+1.68%), home appliances (+1.39%), textiles and apparel (+0.80%), and social services (+0.36%) [2][3]. - Gold prices reached a new high of $3,690 per ounce, contributing to the sustained growth in the gold and jewelry sector, with retail sales in this category increasing by 11% year-on-year [2][3]. - The upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays are expected to boost tourism, with a reported 130% increase in travel numbers compared to the previous year [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector saw a comprehensive rise, with specific stocks like Huang Shang Huang (+14.60%) and Sanjiang Shopping (+30.97%) leading the gains [2][3]. - Conversely, stocks such as Wancheng Group (-10.56%) and Anzheng Fashion (-25.20%) faced declines [2][3]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The Guangdong Provincial Department of Culture and Tourism announced measures to enhance inbound tourism, including optimizing visa policies and improving service offerings [14][15]. - Alibaba's Gaode Map launched a new service to support offline dining and service consumption, aiming to increase customer traffic [15]. - Meituan announced the relaunch of its quality takeaway service, utilizing AI to enhance user experience [15]. - The report highlights significant growth in the gold and jewelry sector, with expectations for continued high demand in the second half of 2025 [2][3].