Group 1 - The UK and India have reached a "milestone" free trade agreement aimed at strengthening economic ties between the fifth and sixth largest economies in the world, with the UK expecting an economic boost of £4.8 billion in the long term [1] - The agreement includes significant tariff reductions on UK exports to India, particularly on whisky and automobiles, with whisky tariffs halving from 150% to 75% and then to 40% by the tenth year, while automobile tariffs will drop from over 100% to 10% subject to quotas [2] - The deal is projected to increase bilateral trade by £25.5 billion and boost UK GDP by £4.8 billion, with India expected to cut tariffs worth over £400 million annually at the agreement's inception, rising to approximately £900 million after ten years [2] Group 2 - The agreement does not include legal services, which has been described as a "missed opportunity" by the Law Society of England and Wales, and it does not alter the UK's visa system or broader immigration strategy [3] - India will maintain tariffs on dairy products, while the UK will keep restrictions on certain agricultural products like basmati rice [4] - The agreement is seen as a significant achievement for the UK, being one of the first countries to establish a free trade agreement with India, although the full benefits are expected to materialize over time [4]

印度贸易部：印英贸易协议为纺织品、海产品、鞋类、宝石、珠宝等行业提供出口机会。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall inventory cycle in the U.S. is likely transitioning towards an active destocking phase by 2025, with significant implications for various industries [1][2][3]. Overall Inventory Cycle - In February, U.S. total inventory increased by 2.45% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 2.25%. Sales increased by 3.45% year-on-year, down from 3.69% [2][3]. - The inventory cycle remains in a passive restocking phase due to "import grabbing," with Q1 net imports increasing by $359.26 billion year-on-year, of which over one-third ($129.71 billion) converted into inventory [2][3]. Industry Inventory Cycle - Among 14 major industry categories, 8 are in a passive restocking phase, including upstream chemical products, building materials, midstream electrical equipment, and downstream durable consumer goods [4]. - Historical inventory percentiles show that total inventory is at a historical percentile of 30.5%, with building materials at 71.5%, automotive parts at 67.8%, and paper and forestry products at 53.8% [4]. Upstream Inventory Status - Half of the upstream industries are in passive restocking, while the other half are in active destocking [5][6][7][8]. - Specific sectors like oil, natural gas, and consumer fuels are in active destocking as of February 2025 [5]. Midstream Inventory Status - Inventory status is mixed, with paper and forestry products in active restocking, while electrical equipment and transportation are in passive restocking [9][10]. - Mechanical manufacturing is currently in passive destocking [9]. Downstream Inventory Status - The current passive restocking phase is prolonged, indicating potential "import grabbing" demand [11]. - Automotive parts are transitioning to active destocking as of February 2025, while other sectors like household durable goods and textiles remain in passive restocking [11].

美国关税大棒落地后，一股托举我国外贸企业的合力迅速形成。与一些人预想中企业会手足无措的场景 相反，"一动一静"两幅截然不同的画面令人印象深刻。 一边，很多美国消费者坐不住了，多个中国电商平台APP在美国的下载量节节攀升，反应更快的消费者 甚至掀起了到中国扫货的"反向代购"热潮；另一边，不少我国外贸企业主一如既往地淡定、忙碌。"我 们靠能力，客户离不了""我们跟全世界做生意"，处变不惊的态度背后，是这些企业快速反应能力与韧 性的体现。"动"与"静"之间，尽显"中国制造"的国际竞争力。 实事求是地看，我国外贸企业并非没有受到影响。尽管这些年我国对美国市场的依赖度明显降低，但高 企的关税仍是实实在在的压力。在2024年我国对美出口的5246亿美元商品中，手机、电脑等各类机电产 品是重要门类，纺织品、玩具、家具等劳动密集型产品也占比不低。这些行业涉及的就业人口庞大、中 小企业数量多，稳住外贸企业的重要性不言而喻。 外贸企业该如何突围？这些天，相关的讨论有很多，比如与客户协商分担成本、拓展新市场、"出口转 内销"、重新布局供应链等，办法不少，有些瞄准眼下，有些着眼长远。不同企业受到的影响不同，采 取的措施各异，但共通之 ...

为了支持轻纺城市场采购贸易发展，绍兴海关在"春节""五一"等节假日前后的纺织品出货高峰期间，通 过"海关夜窗口""节日不打烊"方式，保障货物高效通关。"今年3月份，我们又推出了周末特约窗口服 务，优化预约进场模式，延长海关放行时间，已累计为价值4500万美元的货物办理通关放行。"绍兴海 关现场查验关员洪凌志说。 除公路外，在距离轻纺城约半个小时车程的柯桥铁路口岸，"中亚班列""海铁联运"充分发挥了铁路班 列"零星散发""仓位稳定"的优势，助力轻纺城的纺织品走出国门。"借着家纺博览会等展会的东风，前 方下单，仓库发货，家门口报关，铁路、海运都可选择，柯桥的纺织企业通过市场采购贸易出口热度依 旧。"绍兴某报关代理服务有限公司负责人傅国江说。 "下一步，我们将巩固'日清周结月提醒'的通关服务机制，引导企业用好用足政策红利，助力纺织企业 降本增效。"绍兴海关有关负责人表示。 王旭东、苏盼盼 4月27日上午，在中国轻纺城市场采购海关监管中心内，一批价值8万美元的针织印花布经绍兴海关现场 查验后，顺利出口尼日利亚。 据绍兴海关数据统计，2025年一季度，中国轻纺城市场采购贸易出口近8000箱次，货值约50亿元，同比 增长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of recent U.S. tariff policies on Chinese manufacturers, particularly focusing on the experiences of the new generation of factory owners, known as the "second generation" or "厂二代," who are navigating a turbulent trade environment and adapting their strategies to survive and thrive in the changing landscape. Group 1: Tariff Impact - In April, President Trump announced a series of tariffs on China, with cumulative tariffs reaching 125% by April 10 [1] - Many factories, particularly those heavily reliant on U.S. orders, faced significant disruptions, with some halting operations entirely due to the tariffs [4][5] - Howard's textile factory, which relies on U.S. clients for 45% of its business, experienced order cancellations and delays as tariffs exceeded 100% [6][7] Group 2: Adaptation Strategies - Young factory owners are exploring new markets and strategies, with some moving operations to Southeast Asia to mitigate tariff impacts [10][11] - Zhang Yirun, a "00后" factory manager in Vietnam, reported an influx of new orders from U.S. clients seeking alternatives to Chinese suppliers due to tariffs [10] - The younger generation is leveraging technology and online platforms to attract customers, moving away from traditional sales methods [17][19] Group 3: Operational Challenges - The ongoing trade tensions have led to increased operational challenges, including rising costs and the need for factories to adapt quickly to changing market conditions [16][22] - Naysa, involved in the seafood export business, noted a shift in the effectiveness of traditional trade shows, which are now more about maintaining visibility than securing orders [16] - The younger generation of factory owners is more service-oriented, focusing on customer needs and product improvements to retain business [19][21] Group 4: Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market in Southeast Asia is becoming increasingly competitive, with many Chinese manufacturers relocating to countries like Vietnam and Thailand [11][13] - Despite higher labor costs in China, the efficiency and quality of Chinese workers remain competitive compared to their Southeast Asian counterparts [21] - The "厂二代" are influenced by their parents' values, emphasizing the importance of providing jobs even for low-margin orders to support their workers [22]

3月15日晚间，2025年央视3·15晚会曝光，"浪莎"代工企业健芝初医疗器械有限公司为控制成本，部分产品未进行灭菌消毒处理。随后，浪莎股份发布公告 称，收到上交所关于该公司媒体报道相关事项的监管工作函。 上交所要求浪莎股份核实有关情况，充分说明是否存在媒体报道所述情况，相关事实是否涉及信息披露违法违规。 市场各方及投资者对央视财经相关报道关注度较高，上交所在监管工作函中表示，浪莎股份应当密切关注市场舆情，从维护投资者利益出发，及时回应市 场质疑及投资者关切，做好投资者沟通解释工作。 今日，浪莎股份再次发布对此事进行回应，公告称，公司针对"3.15"晚会曝光的河南健芝初医疗器械有限公司生产的一次性内裤产品时提及"浪莎"品牌产 品，经自查核实： 资料显示，四川浪莎控股股份有限公司成立于1995年，公司主营业务为针织内衣、针织面料的制造，商品批发与零售；进出口业；投资管理咨询等。浪莎 股份是国内纺织品行业中拥有较高的知名度，中国驰名商标。 业绩方面，2024年前三季度，浪莎股份营业收入为2.36亿元，同比增长2.80%；归母净利润为1553.48万元，同比增长41.04%。 值得注意的是，截至2024年三季度，公 ...

日本九十年代市场复盘 1 日本九十年代市场复盘：多次下调利率，逐步进入零利率时期 20世纪90年代初期，日本泡沫经济破灭后经济快速下行，随之资产负债表衰退，日本货币政策转向 宽松。 日本央行于1991年7月将政策利率从6%下调至5.5%，同年11/12月各降50BP至4.5%；1992年4 月降到3.75%，7月再降50BP；并于1993年2月降到2.5%。此后2年多的时间内政策利率持续下调， 1995年5月下调为1%，同年9月再次下调至0.5%。1999年，日本央行将利率下降至0%，成为首个进入 零利率时代的央行。 同期日本国债利率呈现明显的下行趋势，以10年期国债收益率为例，1990年9月其收益率高达8%左 右，1998年9-10月则降至1%以下。 2 ▲图表1： 日本九十年代调整政策利率 资料来源：Wind，日本央行，国际清算银行， 野村东方国际证券 注：1998年前用官方贴现率，1998年后用政策利率 ▲图表2： 日本十年期国债利率 资料来源：Wind，日本财务省，野村东方国际证券 消费股基本面及估值变化情况 日本90年代经历了十次利率下调，我们根据此段时间利率下降的幅度和频次将其分为四个阶段。 东证 ...

美国东部时间3月3日，美国宣布自3月4日对从墨西哥和加拿大进口的商品加征25%的关税，涉及钢铁、 铝制品及部分工业制成品。美国总统特朗普称，对墨西哥和加拿大的关税没有达成共识的空间。此举直接 引发三国贸易关系剧变。加拿大随即启动报复机制，宣布对300亿加元美国商品（含食品、纺织品及家 具）加征25%关税，并计划21天后扩大至1250亿加元商品，覆盖美国对加出口总额的41%（2024年美国 对加出口额3758亿加元）。墨西哥总统辛鲍姆宣布于3月9日公布反制措施，具体细节尚未披露。 与此同时，美方同日又宣布以芬太尼等问题为由，宣布自3月4日起对中国输美产品再次加征10%关税。对 此，中方表示强烈不满，坚决反对，并宣布了一系列反制措施坚定维护自身权益。国务院关税税则委员会 迅速回应，宣布自3月10日起，对原产于美国的部分进口商品加征关税。其中，对鸡肉、小麦、玉米、棉 花加征15%关税；对高粱、大豆、猪肉、牛肉、水产品、水果、蔬菜、乳制品加征10%关税。此外中国还 对莱多斯公司等25家美国公司实施出口和投资限制。 据民生证券测算，此次中国对来自美国的部分商品加征15%或10%关税，共计涉及223亿美元商品；加上 此前 ...