Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Outperforming the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - This week, commodity prices have retreated, leading to a weakening in the petrochemical sector. Continuous attention is required on the progress of phasing out old facilities and upgrading within the petrochemical industry [2] - The oil and petrochemical index closed at 2262.71 points, down 2.94% from last week, indicating a weaker performance compared to other sectors [3][7] - In the upstream sector, geopolitical factors may provide a premium for oil, benefiting upstream stocks. In the refining sector, a recovery in demand and progress in eliminating outdated capacity would be favorable for midstream refining [2] Summary by Sections Oil - Energy prices have fluctuated, with Brent crude oil futures and TTF natural gas futures closing at $69.54 per barrel and €33.81 per megawatt-hour, respectively, reflecting increases of 1.1% and 4.2% from last week [10] - U.S. crude oil inventories have risen, with total crude and petroleum product inventories (excluding strategic reserves) at 1,257,771 thousand barrels, an increase of 7,087 thousand barrels [15] Polyester - The price of polyester filament remains stable, with POY, DTY, and FDY prices at 6,680, 7,930, and 6,930 yuan per ton, respectively. The price differentials have decreased by 101 yuan per ton [18] - The inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have increased, with operating rates for filament and downstream looms at 91.5% and 55.5%, respectively, both showing slight declines [22] Olefins - Sample prices for polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) are 7,710 and 8,050 yuan per ton, with changes of 0.13% and -1.11% from last week. The petrochemical inventory for olefins has increased by 70,000 tons, totaling 800,000 tons [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for polyester is "oscillating", with an expectation of being mainly bearish due to the lack of obvious driving factors [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The sentiment in the polyester market has significantly weakened, and the fundamentals of PTA have slightly deteriorated. There are mixed factors in supply, demand, inventory, basis, profit, valuation, and macro - policies, leading to an oscillating market outlook [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Polyester load has declined, reducing PTA demand. PTA port inventory has decreased. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $240, while the profit margins of alkylation transfer and TDP are not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX remains around $100 [3]. - **Demand**: The downstream load of polyester remains at 88%. The main polyester production cuts are concentrated in short - fiber and bottle - chip varieties, which will affect polyester load. As PTA prices recover, the load of the weaving end has declined [3]. - **Inventory**: PTA port inventory has decreased by 35,000 tons this week, entering a destocking cycle [3]. - **Basis**: The PTA basis has weakened rapidly. As PTA device profits recover, the number of devices has increased rapidly, and market liquidity is slightly tight [3]. - **Profit**: The spread between PX and naphtha is $240, and the spread between PX and MX has shrunk. PTA processing fees are maintained at around 250 yuan and have contracted [3]. - **Valuation**: PTA prices are at a moderately low level. As reforming devices gradually recover, aromatics supply has increased, and the expansion of gasoline profits has boosted demand [3]. - **Macro - policy**: There is uncertainty in India's oil import policy from Russia due to Trump's threat of punishment, but Indian officials say the policy remains unchanged [3][9]. - **Investment View**: The market is expected to oscillate, mainly bearish due to the lack of obvious driving factors [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [3]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Crude Oil**: The US is sanctioning Russian crude oil. Trump threatened to punish India if it does not cut off Russian oil imports, but Indian officials will continue to import [5][9]. - **Gasoline**: Demand is strong during the peak season. North American refinery loads remain high. Diesel price increases drive up crude oil prices, and crude oil inventory has increased continuously. Refinery operating rates are high, gasoline production exceeds 9.9 million barrels, but imports have decreased. Finished gasoline inventory decline supports crude oil and gasoline prices. The spread between European gasoline and naphtha remains at $150 [10][16][24]. 3.3 Aromatics Fundamentals Overview - **Domestic Reforming Devices**: Loads are gradually recovering. North American reforming device profit margins remain unchanged, while reforming octane profit margins have slightly increased, and BTX extraction profit margins have slightly declined. Aromatics extraction demand can be met internally [27][43]. - **Selective Disproportionation**: Profits have shrunk. The economic viability of North American TDP and STDP is weak, and MX supply may decrease, but STDP profit margins have been positive for about two months [44][50]. - **Polyester Load**: It has started to decline. PX pricing is closely linked to futures after the listing of PX futures. PTA processing intervals are long - term below 500 yuan, and option - based income - enhancement schemes are more widely used. Short - fiber and bottle - chip industries are in the capacity - expansion cycle, and overseas demand is an important variable, with new export opportunities along the "Belt and Road" [51][55]. - **Reforming Device Maintenance**: It is gradually returning. Asian naphtha markets have strengthened slightly, and the cracking spread of naphtha - Brent crude oil has improved. Asian gasoline remains strong, but gasoline reforming profit margins have declined. Asian spot MX supply is still sufficient [56][57]. - **Gasoline and Aromatics Reforming**: Both have strengthened. Domestic commodity sentiment has weakened, polyester downstream load has decreased to 88%. PTA spot has become slightly more abundant, and port inventory has decreased. PTA basis has dropped from 0 to - 20. Some reforming device overhauls have been postponed, and bottle - chip manufacturers have started production - cut plans [63]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices have rebounded due to rising coal prices and improved macro - sentiment. Overseas device overhauls, especially in Saudi Arabia, have been postponed, and future arrivals are expected to decrease. Polyester production and sales have weakened, and the industry has entered an overhaul cycle, which has a negative impact on the market [70][77]. - **Gasoline**: Profits have recovered, and the load of major refineries has increased [79]. - **Polyester**: Downstream demand has weakened, and bottle - chip and short - fiber production facilities are undergoing maintenance. Raw material prices have risen, while terminal demand has weakened [87][94].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - MEG: After the "anti - involution" premium is squeezed out, the price is expected to fluctuate within a range based on the fundamentals. In the third quarter, the inventory accumulation is small, and there is limited downward space due to low inventory [1][2][3] - PX - TA: It is advisable to go long on expanding TA processing fees at low prices. Although the short - term supply and demand of PX - TA have little contradiction, the current TA processing fees are at a historical low, and there are many future maintenance expectations [4][5][6] Group 3: Summaries According to Catalogs MEG - **Inventory**: The inventory at East China ports decreased to 52.1 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons compared to the previous period. The expected inventory accumulation at ports next Monday is limited [1][2] - **Device**: Tongliao Jinmei stopped production due to an accident, and Zhonghuaxin restarted at a low load. Overseas, 4 sets of 2.15 million - ton capacity devices in Saudi Arabia that were temporarily shut down have restarted at a low load [1] - **Supply**: The total load increased to 69% (+0.65%), with the coal - based load rising to 75% (+0.64%). The profit of each route was significantly compressed [2] - **Demand**: The load of filament and staple fiber decreased slightly, and the polyester load dropped to 88.1% (-0.6%). The processing profit of polyester products has been repaired, and there is an expectation of an increase in filament load in the future [2] PX - TA - **PX** - **Device**: After Sheng Hong's PX device malfunction, it increased its load, and Sinochem slightly reduced its load. The overall load increased to 81.1% (+1.2%). Attention should be paid to the restart progress of Weilian [4] - **Profit**: The cost of naphtha has increased significantly, the profit of the PX link has been compressed, PXN has been compressed to 247 (-45), and PX - MX has been repaired to 110 (-19) [4][5] - **PTA** - **Device**: There have been successive load reductions and overhauls, and the load has dropped to 75.3% (-4.6%). Sanfangxiang's new device has successfully produced products [5] - **Inventory**: The inventory reduction trend has slowed down, and the social inventory has slightly increased to 2.25 million tons (+3) [5] - **Profit**: The overall industrial chain profit has been compressed to a low level, and the TA cash - flow processing fee has been compressed to 154 (-26) [5] - **Demand**: Similar to MEG, the polyester load has decreased, but there is an expectation of an increase in filament load in the future [5] Polyester - **Supply**: The overall polyester load decreased to 88.1% (-0.6%), with the filament load dropping to 90.5% (-0.8%) and the staple fiber load to 90.3% (-0.3%) [10] - **Profit**: The processing profit of polyester products has been significantly repaired, such as POY's profit increasing from - 114 to 110 yuan/ton [10] - **Inventory**: The inventory pressure of filament products has slightly increased, and the inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY have all increased [10] - **Production and Sales**: The production and sales of filament are light, with the production - sales ratio dropping to 30.8% (-29.3%) [10] Downstream of Polyester - **Weaving**: The loom load has slightly increased, and the number of weaving orders has increased by 0.4 days. However, the actual orders at the terminal have not improved yet [2][5] - **Spinning Mill**: The spinning mill load remains stable, and the inventory of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn shows no significant change [134] - **Terminal Macro**: The production of cloth and yarn, the retail sales of clothing, and the production of soft drinks all show certain seasonal characteristics [144][145][146] - **Textile Export**: The export quantity and value indexes of the textile and textile - clothing industries show different trends, and the export delivery value also has corresponding changes [148][149][152]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not clearly defined in terms of a standard rating but described as having a weak and volatile short - term market [6] - Methanol: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias but limited trading opportunities on the current market [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with potential for seasonally improved supply - demand in the third - quarter later stage and pressure in the fourth quarter [1][3] - Styrene: ☆☆☆, showing a weakening price trend with supply pressure [1][3] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆, with a weak price trend due to supply and demand dynamics [1][2] - Plastic (assumed to be related to Polyethylene in the context): ☆☆☆, with a weak price trend as supply increases and demand changes little [1][2] - PVC: ☆☆☆, expected to have a weak and volatile short - term price trend [1][7] - Caustic Soda: ★★★, indicating a clear bearish trend with long - term supply pressure [1][7] - PTA: ☆☆☆, with a weak market due to supply - demand imbalance and inventory accumulation [1][5] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆, with a downward price trend and weak supply - demand [1][5] - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆, with a neutral current situation but positive mid - term expectations [1][5] - Bottle - chip: ☆☆☆, facing long - term over - capacity pressure and limited processing margin recovery [1][5] - Glass: ☆☆☆, with a weak price trend [1][8] - Soda Ash: ★★★, expected to have a weak and volatile short - term price trend [1][8] Core Views - The chemical market is generally under pressure due to various factors such as supply - demand imbalances, changes in oil prices, and downstream demand fluctuations. Different chemical products show different price trends and market outlooks based on their specific supply - demand situations [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene: Futures prices decline. Supply is expected to remain relatively abundant, and demand growth has limited support for prices, making prices more likely to fall [2] - Polyolefins: The main contracts of polyolefin futures fluctuate narrowly. Polyethylene supply increases with the restart of maintenance devices, and demand changes little, resulting in a weak price trend. Polypropylene has increased temporary shutdowns on the supply side, but demand is weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure Benzene: Futures prices decline slightly due to oil price and external sentiment. Supply increases, and the market is in a weak supply - demand situation. It is expected to be volatile in the short term, with potential improvement in the third - quarter later stage and pressure in the fourth quarter [3] - Styrene: The main contract of futures fluctuates narrowly. A new production plan has a negative impact on the market. Supply and demand both increase, but supply pressure is relatively large, leading to a weak price trend [3] Polyester - PX and PTA: Prices decline due to oil price and market sentiment. Supply - demand is imbalanced, with inventory accumulation and pressure on processing margins. There is a driving force for margin repair in the medium term, but it depends on downstream demand recovery [5] - Ethylene Glycol: Prices continue to decline. Supply increases, and demand decreases slightly. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation [5] - Short - fiber: Prices follow raw materials down. The current situation is neutral, but new capacity is limited, and there are positive mid - term expectations [5] - Bottle - chip: Prices decline with raw materials. There is long - term over - capacity pressure, limiting the recovery of processing margins [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol: The market price continues to decline slightly. Supply is sufficient, and demand changes little. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies [6] - Urea: Prices are weakly volatile. Demand enters the off - season, and production is still relatively abundant. Attention should be paid to macro and export policies [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC: Prices continue to weaken. Supply is high, and demand is in the off - season, resulting in inventory accumulation and a weak price trend [7] - Caustic Soda: Prices are weakly running. Supply pressure is high in the long term, and prices are expected to be under pressure at high levels [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda Ash: Prices decline due to policy sentiment. Supply - demand pressure exists, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [8] - Glass: Prices are weakly running. Market sentiment fades, and the market returns to a real - trading situation with inventory accumulation [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, due to the lack of support from supply and demand, the polyester sector will undergo weak adjustments. It is advisable to be cautiously bearish in the short - term. Crude oil affects the market's fluctuation rhythm, and attention should be paid to the risk of price reversals [37]. - In the medium - to - long - term, as it is the off - season for terminal demand, the polyester sector will generally continue to fluctuate within a low - level range [38]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Crude Oil Important Information - OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) reaffirmed the importance of full compliance with quotas on Monday and made no adjustments to future production policies. Eight member countries will hold a separate meeting on Sunday to discuss further production increases in September [5]. - Trump stated that if Russia fails to make progress in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the US will start imposing tariffs on Russia in 10 days and take other measures, which has raised concerns about supply in the market [6]. - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged in the 4.25% - 4.5% range in its July meeting, in line with market expectations. The monetary policy statement indicated that economic growth slowed in the first half of the year, the labor market remained stable, and inflation was still slightly high [7]. - EIA data showed that last week, US crude oil inventories increased by 7.7 million barrels, while analysts expected a decrease of 1.3 million barrels. US gasoline inventories decreased by 2.7 million barrels, and distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, increased by 3.6 million barrels [8]. - Trump announced that starting from August 1, the US will impose a 25% tariff on goods from India and additional punitive fees, which may affect Russia's oil exports of 2.3 million barrels per day [8]. - On July 31, Trump signed an executive order to set "reciprocal tariff" rates ranging from 10% to 41% for multiple countries and regions [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - WTI crude oil continuous futures price rose from $66.2 per barrel on July 24 to $69.22 per barrel on July 31, with a weekly increase of $3 and a week - on - week increase of 4.56%. The price of naphtha increased from $576.13 per ton to $611 per ton, with a weekly increase of $34.87 and a week - on - week increase of 6.05% [11]. - For PX509 futures, the price decreased from 6956 yuan/ton to 6928 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 28 yuan/ton and a week - on - week decrease of 0.40%. The PX CFR price in Taiwan Province increased from 7040.31 yuan/ton to 7072.98 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 32.67 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 0.46% [11]. - TA509 futures price decreased from 4850 yuan/ton to 4808 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 42 yuan/ton and a week - on - week decrease of 0.87%. The PTA spot benchmark price increased from 4810 yuan/ton to 4826 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 16 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 0.33% [11]. - EG509 futures price decreased from 4485 yuan/ton to 4414 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 71 yuan/ton and a week - on - week decrease of 1.58%. The mainstream price of ethylene glycol in East China decreased from 4529 yuan/ton to 4492 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 37 yuan/ton and a week - on - week decrease of 0.82% [11]. - PF507 futures price decreased from 6520 yuan/ton to 6464 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 56 yuan/ton and a week - on - week decrease of 0.86%. The mainstream price of polyester staple fiber in East China decreased from 6605 yuan/ton to 6595 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 10 yuan/ton and a week - on - week decrease of 0.15% [11]. - PR507 futures price decreased from 6042 yuan/ton to 5974 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 68 yuan/ton and a week - on - week decrease of 1.13%. The mainstream price of polyester bottle chips in East China decreased from 6005 yuan/ton to 5990 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 15 yuan/ton and a week - on - week decrease of 0.25% [11]. - The PX basis increased from 84.31 yuan/ton to 144.98 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 60.67 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 71.96%. The price of POY150D/48F increased from 6675 yuan/ton to 6750 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 75 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 1.12% [11]. - The PTA basis increased from - 40 yuan/ton to 18 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 58 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of - 145.00%. The price of FDY150D/96F increased from 6925 yuan/ton to 7050 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 125 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 1.81% [11]. - The ethylene glycol basis increased from 44 yuan/ton to 78 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 34 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 77.27%. The price of DTY150D/48F increased from 7925 yuan/ton to 7950 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 25 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 0.32% [11]. - The staple fiber basis increased from 85 yuan/ton to 131 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 46 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of 54.12% [11]. - The polyester bottle chip basis increased from - 37 yuan/ton to 16 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 53 yuan/ton and a week - on - week increase of - 143.24% [11]. 3.3 PX - Due to the maintenance of Tianjin Petrochemical and the continued maintenance of plants such as Fuhai Chuang, Weilian Chemical, and Fujia Dahua, domestic PX production decreased slightly. As of August 1, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of domestic PX was 82.35% (- 0.46%), and the weekly output was 69.06 tons (- 0.56%) [16]. - The 400,000 - ton plant of Idemitsu in Japan had a malfunction and shut down, while the Asian load remained stable. As of August 1, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Asian PX was 71.98%, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.02% [16]. - Next week, plants such as Dalian Fujia's 700,000 - ton plant, Fuhai Chuang's 1.6 - million - ton plant, Weilian's 1 - million - ton plant, and Tianjin Petrochemical's 300,000 - ton plant will continue maintenance, and Ningbo Daxie is expected to increase its load. The weekly output of PX is expected to increase slightly [16]. 3.4 PTA - This week, there were both plant shutdowns and load reductions. Taihua shut down, and New Materials and Yihua reduced their loads, resulting in a tightened supply. As of July 31, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic PTA was 79.67% (- 1.09%), and the weekly output was 1.4261 million tons (- 18,900 tons) [22][23]. - The 3.2 - million - ton new plant of Hailun Petrochemical may start production. A 2.2 - million - ton plant in Jiaxing began maintenance for two weeks on August 1, and a 1.5 - million - ton PTA plant of Taihua had a short - term shutdown of about 3 days on July 31. PTA output is expected to continue to decline next week [23]. - This week, PTA social inventories continued to accumulate slightly. As of July 25, 2025, the available days of PTA inventory in factories were 3.82 days (- 0.17 days), the PTA inventory in polyester factories was 7 days (+ 0.05 days), and the PTA social inventory was about 3.8205 million tons (+ 16,700 tons) [23]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol - Yangmei Shouyang's 300,000 - ton plant restarted and increased its load, while Shanxi Meijin's 300,000 - ton plant slightly reduced its load. Some plants made minor adjustments, and domestic ethylene glycol supply increased slightly this week. As of July 31, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of domestic ethylene glycol was 60.67% (+ 1.47%) [24][25]. - Affected by typhoon weather, port inventories decreased. As of July 31, the inventory in East China ports was 427,200 tons, a decrease of 29,300 tons from Monday and 47,800 tons from last Thursday. Next week, the arrival of imported goods will increase slightly, and the pace of port inventory reduction will slow down [25]. 3.6 Polyester End - The weekly average polyester operating rate was 85.82%, a decrease of 0.58% compared with last week [26]. 3.7 Polyester Inventory - During the week, the inventory of polyester filament increased slightly [29]. 3.8 Terminal - As of July 31, the operating rate of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 55.51% (- 0.08%) [35]. - The order days of Chinese weaving sample enterprises were 7.33 days (+ 0.39 days) [35]. - The inventory days of grey cloth were 30.57 days (- 0.17 days) [35].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has weakened. The supply of domestic PTA production capacity has contracted, and the port inventory of PTA has declined. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, while the profitability of alkyl transfer and TDP is not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX has remained at around $90. The market's port inventory has decreased, and polyester replenishment has improved as the basis weakens. However, the basis of PTA has weakened, and the market's willingness to replenish has declined [2]. - The coal price has rebounded, leading to an increase in the price of ethylene glycol. The macro - sentiment has slightly weakened, and the chemical industry has followed the weakening sentiment of bulk commodities. The maintenance of overseas ethylene glycol plants, especially those in Saudi Arabia, has been continuously postponed, which may have a significant impact on the market outlook and has been boosting the price of ethylene glycol. The future arrival volume of ethylene glycol has decreased. The polyester production and sales have weakened, the profit of downstream weaving has shrunk, and the terminal load has significantly declined, which has a certain negative impact on the market [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data Changes - **INE Crude Oil**: The price increased from 528.6 yuan/barrel on July 30, 2025, to 531.3 yuan/barrel on July 31, 2025, with a change of 2.70 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA - SC**: The price decreased from 1014.6 yuan/ton to 947.0 yuan/ton, a change of - 67.62 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA/SC (Ratio)**: It decreased from 1.2641 to 1.2453, a change of - 0.0189 [2]. - **CFR China PX**: The price dropped from 866 to 858, a change of - 8 [2]. - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: It decreased from 277 to 250, a change of - 27 [2]. - **PTA Main Contract Futures Price**: It decreased from 4856 yuan/ton to 4808 yuan/ton, a change of - 48.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Spot Price**: It decreased from 4860 to 4825 yuan/ton, a change of - 35.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Spot Processing Fee**: It increased from 179.3 yuan/ton to 189.0 yuan/ton, a change of 9.7 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Futures Processing Fee**: It decreased from 185.3 yuan/ton to 177.0 yuan/ton, a change of - 8.3 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Main Contract Basis**: It decreased from (10) to (15), a change of - 5.0 [2]. - **PTA Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: Remained unchanged at 29738 [2]. - **MEG Main Contract Futures Price**: It decreased from 4450 yuan/ton to 4414 yuan/ton, a change of - 36.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG - Naphtha**: It decreased from (112.68) to (116.87) yuan/ton, a change of - 4.2 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG Domestic Market**: It decreased from 4527 to 4503 yuan/ton, a change of - 24.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG Main Contract Basis**: It decreased from 63 to 60, a change of - 3.0 [2]. 2. Industry Chain Operating Rates - **PX Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 77.29% [2]. - **PTA Operating Rate**: Decreased from 79.45% to 76.64%, a change of - 2.81% [2]. - **MEG Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 58.13% [2]. - **Polyester Load**: Remained unchanged at 86.28% [2]. 3. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - **POY150D/48F**: Remained unchanged at 6760 [2]. - **POY Cash Flow**: Increased from (162) to (124), a change of 38.0 [2]. - **FDY150D/96F**: Increased from 7060 to 7065, a change of 5.0 [2]. - **FDY Cash Flow**: Increased from (362) to (319), a change of 43.0 [2]. - **DTY150D/48F**: Increased from 7955 to 7960, a change of 5.0 [2]. - **DTY Cash Flow**: Increased from (167) to (124), a change of 43.0 [2]. - **1.4D Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber**: Decreased from 6665 to 6650, a change of - 15 [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber Cash Flow**: Increased from 93 to 116, a change of 23.0 [2]. - **Semi - Bright Polyester Chip**: Decreased from 5920 to 5905, a change of - 15.0 [2]. - **Polyester Chip Cash Flow**: Increased from (102) to (79), a change of 23.0 [2]. 4. Production and Sales Rates - **Long - Filament Production and Sales Rate**: Decreased from 110% to 27%, a change of - 83% [2]. - **Short - Fiber Production and Sales Rate**: Increased from 42% to 49%, a change of 7% [2]. - **Polyester Chip Production and Sales Rate**: Decreased from 89% to 72%, a change of - 17% [2]. 5. Device Maintenance - A 7.2 - million - ton PTA plant of a supplier in East China reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on the raw material logistics situation [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Supported by the macro "anti-involution" theme, the ethylene glycol price is strongly running under supply-side disturbances. Although demand shows no improvement, frequent supply-side accidents have strengthened the near-term pattern of ethylene glycol, delaying the inventory accumulation expectation again. With low inventory, it remains easy to rise and hard to fall. Before the macro narrative is realized, it is expected to stay strong in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast - Ethylene glycol price range is predicted to be 4200 - 4700, with a current volatility of 9.09% and a historical percentile of 1.4% over 3 years [1] - PX price range is predicted to be 6500 - 7400, with a current volatility of 11.78% and a historical percentile of 17.7% over 3 years [1] - PTA price range is predicted to be 4400 - 5300, with a current volatility of 9.30% and a historical percentile of 4.6% over 3 years [1] - Bottle chip price range is predicted to be 5800 - 6500, with a current volatility of 7.92% and a historical percentile of 0.9% over 3 years [1] Polyester Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When the finished product inventory is high and worried about the decline of ethylene glycol price, for long spot exposure, it is recommended to short ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a 25% hedging ratio in the entry range of 4450 - 4550 to lock in profits and make up for production costs. Also, buy put options (EG2509P4350) to prevent price drops and sell call options (EG2509C4500) to reduce capital costs, with a 50% hedging ratio in the entry range of 5 - 15 [1] Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and hoping to purchase according to orders, for short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a 50% hedging ratio in the entry range of 4300 - 4400 to lock in procurement costs in advance. Sell put options (EG2509P4300) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the purchase price of spot ethylene glycol if the price drops, with a 75% hedging ratio in the entry range of 15 - 30 [1] Market Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - Due to typhoons and other weather conditions, a large number of arrivals have been delayed this week, and the inventory accumulation at the port next Monday is expected to be less than expected [5] - The restart of Satellite Petrochemical's first line, originally scheduled for mid - August, has been postponed, and the production forecast for August - September has been lowered [5] Bearish Factors - After the release of the Politburo meeting content on July 30th, the "anti-involution" sentiment has initially cooled, and the valuation is returning to fundamentals [5] - The previously temporarily shut - down devices in Saudi Arabia have restarted, and the import forecast for September has been revised upwards [5] Polyester Raw Material Production Device Summary - Before May 30, 2005, there were various polyester raw material production devices in different regions and enterprises, including MEG, PX, and PTA, with details such as capacity, production time, and operation status provided [6] Polyester Daily Data Price and Spread - Data on the prices of various polyester - related products such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, and different polyester contracts on August 1, 2025, July 31, 2025, and July 25, 2025, as well as their daily and weekly changes, are provided. Also, information on various spreads like TA main basis, EG main basis, and month - to - month spreads is given [7] Warehouse Receipts - PTA warehouse receipts are 30740, MEG warehouse receipts are 2168, and PX warehouse receipts are 0 [8] Processing Fees and Profits - Data on processing fees such as gasoline reforming spread, aromatics reforming spread, and profits of products like POY, DTY, and polyester bottle chips, as well as their daily and weekly changes, are provided [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Options strategies are provided for selected varieties in each sector, mainly focusing on constructing option combination strategies dominated by sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts, including crude oil, liquefied gas, methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil SC2509 is 533, with a price increase of 9 and a price change rate of 1.66% [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of various energy - chemical options are provided. For example, the open interest PCR of crude oil options is 0.75, indicating a weakening of short - selling power in the near term. Volume PCR and open interest PCR are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively [5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various energy - chemical option underlying assets are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interests of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 640 and the support level is 500 [6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of various energy - chemical options are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes, annual average implied volatility, call and put implied volatilities, historical 20 - day volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatilities. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 32.62% [7]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: The fundamental situation shows that the UAE port transfer increase implies Iran's return to global supply, while Russia's shipments are still tight. The short - term market is volatile and bullish. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **Liquefied Gas**: The supply is abundant, and the short - term market is bearish. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: The port and enterprise inventories are decreasing. The market shows a weak upward trend with pressure. Option strategies include constructing a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The polyester load is rising. The market shows a narrow - range volatile and slightly strong trend with pressure. Option strategies include constructing a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: The inventory situation is complex, and the market shows a weak trend with upward pressure. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11][12]. 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: The social inventory is decreasing. The market shows a low - level consolidation trend. Option strategies include constructing a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy [13]. 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: The inventory is increasing. The market shows a slight upward trend with pressure. Option strategies include constructing a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy [14]. 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: The inventory is increasing. The market shows a volatile trend with pressure. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15]. - **Soda Ash**: The inventory is at a high level and increasing. The market shows a significant decline trend with pressure. Option strategies include constructing a short - volatility combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15]. 3.5.7 Other Options - **Urea**: The enterprise inventory is decreasing but the slope is slowing. The market shows a volatile trend under short - selling pressure. Option strategies include constructing a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [16].

Group 1: Core Insights - The integration of futures markets with physical trade is becoming a key tool for companies to manage risks, particularly in the polyester industry [1][2] - Xiaoding Energy has developed a business model centered on basis trading, supported by risk management and guided by industry chain services, achieving continuous growth in trade volume for five consecutive years [1][2] - The company’s innovative use of futures tools and deep integration with upstream and downstream sectors has allowed it to create a development model characterized by "futures-spot linkage and controllable risks" [1][2] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The polyester industry is undergoing structural changes in 2024, driven by fluctuations in crude oil supply and demand, leading to a shift in pricing logic [2][3] - Domestic PX production is expected to increase by approximately 12% year-on-year in 2024, while processing profits for PX are projected to drop below $300 per ton, indicating a shift in profit distribution from PX production to downstream sectors [2][3] - The competition among integrated manufacturers is intensifying, with PTA and polyester production capacities growing at an annual rate of 10%, leading to a concentration of profits among leading firms [2][3] Group 3: Business Model Innovation - Xiaoding Energy is transitioning from traditional arbitrage models to innovative service models, focusing on basis trading, supply chain finance, and risk management [3][4] - The company has adopted basis trading as its core business model, allowing for flexible pricing based on market conditions, which enhances operational autonomy for enterprises [3][4] - Xiaoding Energy has established a comprehensive futures-spot integration system covering raw material procurement, product sales, and inventory turnover, incorporating various business models such as basis trading and price hedging [4][6] Group 4: Value Creation and Market Position - The company’s innovative approach injects new vitality into the industry chain, addressing the dual challenges of profit contraction and credit risk faced by trading firms during industry adjustments [3][6] - Xiaoding Energy's strategies have improved supply chain resilience and operational efficiency for downstream clients, allowing them to maintain stable production loads and enhance product quality [6][7] - The integration of financial tools with the real economy is seen as essential for seizing opportunities in complex markets, with Xiaoding Energy positioning itself as a pivotal enterprise in this integration process [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "volatile" [1][3][5][7][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, due to sanctions concerns leading to unstable supply expectations, the price center has shifted upwards. It should be treated with a rebound mindset in the short - term [1] - For fuel oil, if oil prices stabilize, the absolute prices of FU and LU may follow and rebound. Consider closing out short positions on the LU - FU spread, and wait for opportunities to re - enter short positions later [3] - For asphalt, in the short - term, the market is supported by low supply and inventory, and the spot price is relatively firm. Consider short - term long positions after oil prices stabilize [5] - For polyester, with cost - side support from the traditional oil demand peak season and resilient downstream demand, and low visible inventories of TA and EG, the prices are expected to oscillate strongly [5] - For rubber, short - term prices are expected to have wide - range oscillations. Pay attention to macro events at the end of July and the results of China - US tariff negotiations [7] - For methanol, after capacity utilization in Iran recovers to the peak and arrivals increase, with stable downstream profits and capacity utilization and increasing inventory, it is expected to enter an oscillatory phase after valuation repair [7] - For polyolefins, they will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and demand, with no prominent fundamental contradictions. If the cost side does not decline significantly, the downside space is limited [7] - For PVC, supply remains at a high - level oscillation, demand is gradually recovering, the supply - demand gap is narrowing, and inventory is slowly decreasing. With the basis and monthly spread widening again, short - selling power in the market will resume [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, WTI September contract closed up $0.79 to $70.00/barrel, a 1.14% increase. Brent September contract closed up $0.73 to $73.24/barrel, a 1.01% increase. SC2508 closed at 523.6 yuan/barrel, down 7.4 yuan/barrel, a 1.39% decrease. Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian imports starting August 1st and unspecified penalties for buying Russian oil. India may cooperate, which could affect Russia's daily oil exports of 2.3 million barrels. The US sanctioned five shipping management companies and one oil wholesaler for dealing with Iranian oil. EIA data showed a 7.7 - million - barrel increase in US crude inventory, a 2.7 - million - barrel decrease in gasoline inventory (expected 0.6 - million - barrel decrease), and a 3.6 - million - barrel increase in distillate inventory (expected 0.3 - million - barrel increase) [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 1.48% at 2,956 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2510 closed up 2.49% at 3,710 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of independent refineries in Shandong has been rising for 5 consecutive weeks, reaching 48.16%, but is 0.96% lower year - on - year. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in the Singapore market is sufficient, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market in Asia faces supply pressure from stable Middle East shipments [3] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed up 1% at 3,650 yuan/ton. The planned asphalt production in August is 2.41 million tons, a 5% increase from July and a 25% increase year - on - year. The social inventory rate this week is 35.33%, down 0.27% from last week, the refinery inventory level is 26.22%, up 1.12%, and the refinery capacity utilization rate is 35.91%, up 3.98% [3][5] - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4,856 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. EG2509 closed at 4,450 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. A 1.34 - million - ton PX plant in the Middle East has started production and is ramping up capacity. With cost - side support and resilient downstream demand, and low visible inventories, polyester prices are expected to oscillate strongly [5] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contract RU2509 closed down 65 yuan/ton at 14,945 yuan/ton, and NR closed down 95 yuan/ton at 12,575 yuan/ton. As of July 27, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.293 million tons, up 0.46 million tons or 0.4%. With continuous rainfall in domestic producing areas and rising tire production and exports, short - term prices are expected to oscillate widely [7] - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,407 yuan/ton. With Iranian plants operating at full capacity and increasing arrivals, stable downstream profits and capacity utilization, and increasing inventory, methanol is expected to enter an oscillatory phase after valuation repair [7] - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the mainstream price of PP in East China was 7,120 yuan/ton. Polyolefins will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and demand, with limited downside space if the cost side does not decline significantly [7] - **PVC**: On Wednesday, the price of PVC in East China increased. Supply remains high, demand is recovering, the supply - demand gap is narrowing, and inventory is slowly decreasing. With the basis and monthly spread widening, short - selling power in the market will resume [9] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, basis rate, spot price, futures price, and their changes for various energy and chemical products including crude oil, LPG, asphalt, etc. on July 30 and 29, 2025 [10] 3.3 Market News - Trump stated that if Russia fails to make progress in ending the Ukraine war within 10 - 12 days, the US will impose measures including 100% secondary tariffs on its trading partners. The US also warned other buyers of Russian oil [13] - EIA data showed a 7.7 - million - barrel increase in US crude inventory (expected 1.3 - million - barrel decrease), a 2.7 - million - barrel decrease in gasoline inventory (expected 0.6 - million - barrel decrease), and a 3.6 - million - barrel increase in distillate inventory (expected 0.3 - million - barrel increase) [13] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents historical price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [15][17][19] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - It includes charts of the basis for various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., showing their historical trends [33][34] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - Charts display the spreads between different contracts of products like fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [48][49][53] 3.4.4 Inter - product Spreads - The report shows charts of spreads between different products such as crude oil (internal - external market, B - W), fuel oil (high - low sulfur), etc. [64][65][67] 3.4.5 Production Profits - Charts present the production profits of products such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [74][75][79] 3.5 Research Team Members Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy and Chemicals, with rich experience in the futures derivatives market and many awards [81] - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with multiple industry awards [82] - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, winning several industry honors [83] - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in energy and chemical futures and cash trading [84]