1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil as the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamental factors will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, expect the fundamental situation to gradually improve, and suggest paying attention to long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spread opportunities [4] - For urea, due to weak demand and high inventory, the price is expected to move within a range, and it is recommended to consider long - position opportunities at low prices [6] - For rubber, maintain a long - term bullish view, and suggest waiting and seeing in the short term as it follows the trend of industrial products [11] - For PVC, due to strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities at high prices, but beware of short - covering rallies [13] - For pure benzene and styrene, it is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices, and the styrene price may rebound when the inventory drawdown inflection point appears [16] - For polyethylene, expect the price to oscillate upwards in the long term, and suggest waiting and seeing in the short term [18] - For polypropylene, due to high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, it is recommended to wait and see [19] - For PX, due to lack of upward drivers, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the subsequent improvement in the terminal market [22] - For PTA, due to high unexpected maintenance and weak long - term outlook, it is recommended to wait and see [23] - For ethylene glycol, due to high supply and expected inventory build - up in the fourth quarter, it is recommended to go short at high prices, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [24] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 5.60 yuan/barrel, or 1.15%, to 493.60 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil rose 8.00 yuan/ton, or 0.29%, to 2795.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 42.00 yuan/ton, or 1.25%, to 3395.00 yuan/ton [1] - **Data**: In the weekly data of Fujeirah Port's oil products, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.94 million barrels to 6.07 million barrels, a 24.26% decrease; diesel inventory decreased by 0.18 million barrels to 1.82 million barrels, an 8.79% decrease; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.67 million barrels to 6.32 million barrels, a 9.58% decrease; total refined oil inventory decreased by 2.79 million barrels to 14.21 million barrels, a 16.41% decrease [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 16, the 01 contract fell 21 yuan/ton to 2375 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 3 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 83 [4] - **Fundamentals**: The high - inventory pattern at ports remains unchanged, and the market structure is still weak, but most of the negative factors have been priced in. Supply is sufficient, and demand is expected to improve marginally. The inventory at ports has reached a new high, while the inventory of inland enterprises is relatively low [4] - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spread opportunities [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 16, the 01 contract rose 3 yuan/ton to 1686 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 46 [6] - **Fundamentals**: Domestic enterprise inventory is slowly rising, and the overall inventory level is high. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and compound fertilizer production has rebounded but is still in the seasonal decline stage. Demand is weak, and exports provide limited support [6] - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities at low prices [6] Rubber - **Supply**: The expected rainfall in Thailand in the next 7 days is decreasing, reducing the positive supply factors [8] - **Market Sentiment**: Bulls believe in limited rubber production growth, seasonal price increases, and improved demand in China; bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal weak demand, and less - than - expected supply benefits [9] - **Industry Conditions**: As of September 11, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong increased both week - on - week and year - on - year, while the operating rate of semi - steel tires increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year. The export expectation has declined. As of September 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased [10] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was at 15100 (0) yuan, STR20 was at 1865 (+10) dollars, and STR20 mixed was at 1865 (0) dollars [11] - **Strategy**: Adopt a long - term bullish view and wait and see in the short term [11] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 39 yuan to 4960 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4790 (+50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 170 (+11) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 301 (+2) yuan/ton [13] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai increased, the price of semi - coke remained unchanged, the price of ethylene remained unchanged, and the price of caustic soda decreased [13] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall operating rate increased, and the downstream operating rate also increased. Factory inventory decreased, while social inventory increased. Enterprises' comprehensive profits are at a high level for the year, and the valuation pressure is large [13] - **Strategy**: Consider short - position opportunities at high prices, but beware of short - covering rallies [13] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices rose, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level for the same period, with significant upward correction potential [15][16] - **Fundamentals**: The cost - side pure benzene production is fluctuating moderately, and the supply is still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has increased, and the benzene - ethylene production has been continuously increasing. The port inventory of benzene - ethylene has been significantly decreasing, and the demand - side three - S overall operating rate is fluctuating downward [16] - **Strategy**: Go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [16] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and cost support remains [18] - **Supply and Demand**: There are only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity left. The overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the demand - side agricultural film raw material procurement has started. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven price decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [18] - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short term [18] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose. The supply - side still has 1.45 million tons of planned production capacity, and the pressure is high [19] - **Supply and Demand**: The demand - side downstream operating rate has rebounded from a seasonal low. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions [19] - **Strategy**: Wait and see [19] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 10 yuan to 6762 yuan, and the PX CFR price fell 2 dollars to 834 dollars. The basis was 66 yuan (- 29), and the 11 - 1 spread was 42 yuan (- 4) [21] - **Supply**: The operating rate in China and Asia has increased. Some domestic and overseas plants have increased production or restarted [21] - **Demand**: The PTA operating rate has increased, and some plants have restarted [21] - **Inventory**: The inventory decreased month - on - month at the end of July [21] - **Valuation**: The PXN is 228 dollars (- 6), and the naphtha cracking spread is 114 dollars (+6) [21] - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the subsequent improvement in the terminal market [22] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 16 yuan to 4688 yuan, the East China spot price rose 10 yuan to 4610 yuan, the basis was - 80 yuan (0), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 46 yuan (- 2) [23] - **Supply**: The operating rate increased, and some plants restarted. Unexpected maintenance is still high, and the de - stocking pattern continues [23] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the terminal draw - texturing and weaving operating rates remained unchanged [23] - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased in early September [23] - **Valuation**: The spot processing fee and the futures processing fee both increased [23] - **Strategy**: Wait and see [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 16 yuan to 4272 yuan, the East China spot price rose 7 yuan to 4385 yuan, the basis was 91 yuan (- 11), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 50 yuan (- 5) [24] - **Supply**: The overall operating rate increased, with the synthetic gas - based operating rate increasing significantly. Some domestic and overseas plants had production changes [24] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the terminal draw - texturing and weaving operating rates remained unchanged [24] - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased, and the import arrival forecast is 94,000 tons [24] - **Valuation**: The profit of naphtha - based production is - 645 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production is - 792 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production is 812 yuan [24] - **Strategy**: Go short at high prices, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA: Domestic PTA plants are gradually resuming operation, leading to an increase in domestic PTA production and a rapid decline in PTA basis. OPEC+ increased oil production again at the meeting. Downstream profits have significantly recovered, and the operating load of polyester has rebounded to 91% [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): The basis of ethylene glycol has weakened. The upcoming commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's ethylene glycol plant is putting pressure on the futures market. Although the arrival of overseas ethylene glycol plants has decreased, the increase in hedging positions after the price recovery. Polyester inventory is performing well, and the downstream weaving load has increased [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price rose slightly from 475.3 yuan/barrel on September 12, 2025, to 488.1 yuan/barrel on September 15, 2025 [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price increased from 832 to 836, and the PX - naphtha spread widened by 4 to 238 [2]. - **PTA**: The main PTA futures price rose from 4648 yuan/ton to 4672 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased from 4575 yuan/ton to 4600 yuan/ton. Both spot and futures processing fees showed slight increases [2]. - **MEG**: The main MEG futures price rose from 4272 yuan/ton to 4288 yuan/ton. The spot price in Zhangjiagang's ethylene glycol market increased, and the basis weakened [2]. - **Polyester Filament**: Prices of POY, FDY, and DTY decreased, and their cash flows also declined. The production - sales ratio of long - filament increased by 11% to 53% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber increased slightly, and the production - sales ratio decreased by 6% to 50% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The price of semi - bright chips decreased slightly, and the production - sales ratio increased by 31% to 80% [2]. b. Operating Rates - PX operating rate remained unchanged at 87.16%, PTA operating rate was stable at 78.25%, MEG operating rate increased by 1.32% to 62.20%, and polyester load increased by 0.53% to 88.78% [2]. c. Device Maintenance An East China 2.5 million - ton PTA plant restarted last weekend after a shutdown for maintenance around August 26 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - The market is in a state of "supply reduction and demand increase" with no obvious core contradictions. For PP, due to strong propylene and propane prices, PDH and external propylene procurement profits are suppressed, leading to more unplanned maintenance and inventory decline, but the basis is still weak due to new device commissioning. For PE, current maintenance remains at a relatively high level, resulting in low short - term supply pressure, rising basis, and inventory depletion. However, attention should be paid to the supply rhythm as maintenance volume may gradually decrease from mid - September. Current new orders for demand are poor, and attention should be paid to downstream replenishment before the Double Festival [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose. The main trading logic is the market's concern about the interruption of refined oil and crude oil supply from Russia due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts. The market's expectation of tight diesel supply has heated up, which may drive the crack spread to strengthen. At the macro level, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates soon, and the weakening of the US dollar also provides additional upward momentum for oil prices. The current market trading focus has shifted from the easing expectation to the spot supply risk dominated by geopolitical factors, and the futures price is likely to run along the upper edge of the shock range in the short term. It is recommended to mainly wait and see on the single - side, with the upper pressure of WTI at [65, 66], Brent at [68, 69], and SC at [500, 510]. Wait for opportunities to expand the spread on the option side [4]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the futures price has stabilized and rebounded. From the supply side, there are maintenance plans in the northwest and northeast this week, and the operating rate is expected to decline. From the demand side, the main alumina enterprises have good receiving, but the alumina itself is in an oversupply pattern, and the price has shown a downward trend recently, and most alumina plants have sufficient raw material inventory days. The non - aluminum end demand has improved in the peak season, but the support for the caustic soda price is limited. Overall, the Shandong region has significantly accumulated inventory, but the main buyers have good willingness to receive, and the spot price may tend to be stable. Therefore, the downward space of the futures price may be limited. For PVC, the futures price has shown signs of stabilizing and stopping falling. On the supply side, there are many maintenance enterprises this week, and the output is expected to decline. On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream products has increased slightly, and some enterprises are preparing inventory for the National Day. The overall supply - demand pattern shows a marginal improvement trend. The supply tension of raw material calcium carbide has gradually eased, and the price has a narrow downward trend, while the ethylene price is weakly stable, and the cost side maintains bottom support [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - For p - xylene (PX), as domestic and foreign PX maintenance devices resume operation and short - process benefits are good, PX supply gradually increases to a relatively high level. Although the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" expectation still exists, the polyester and terminal loads are slowly recovering, providing some short - term support for demand. However, the expectation for new orders and load peaks in the future is limited. The PX supply - demand is expected to be relatively loose in September, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price has support at the low level. This week, the PX price has shifted to November and December. Under the scenario of downstream demand transfer in the fourth quarter, the positive support for PX is limited. It is expected that PX will fluctuate strongly with the oil price in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. For PTA, the PTA supply - demand is expected to be tight in September as device maintenance is still concentrated. However, due to the good liquidity in the spot market and the sales of some mainstream suppliers, the overall spot basis is weak. The demand side has some support, but the basis and processing fee repair drive are limited under the weak medium - term supply - demand expectation, and the absolute price follows the raw material fluctuation. For ethylene glycol, the supply pattern is strong in the near term and weak in the long term. The import expectation is not high in September, and as it enters the peak demand season, the polyester load increases, and the rigid demand support improves, resulting in low port inventory and a strong basis. However, the supply - demand is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter due to new device commissioning and device restart, and ethylene glycol will enter the inventory accumulation channel, with the price under pressure. For short - fiber, the short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply continues to increase, and although there is still the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" expectation, new order follow - up is insufficient, and the peak season this year is not expected to be very prosperous. Currently, short - fiber factory inventory is low, and it has relatively strong support compared to raw materials. Overall, it mainly follows the raw material fluctuation. For bottle - grade polyester chips, in September, device restart and shutdown coexist, and supply increases slightly. Considering the decline in soft drink and catering demand as the weather turns cooler, demand may decline, and inventory is expected to increase slowly. The price mainly follows the cost side, and the processing fee has limited upward space [13]. Methanol Industry - In terms of supply and demand, the inland supply is at a high level year - on - year. Although unplanned maintenance has increased recently, some devices are expected to resume production in mid - September. With continuous external procurement by some olefin plants in the inland and unexpected maintenance, the inventory pattern is relatively healthy, which supports the price. The demand side is weak due to the off - season of traditional downstream industries. Some previously shut - down MTO plants at the port restarted last week, slightly relieving the port inventory pressure. In terms of valuation, the upstream profit is neutral, the MTO profit is marginally weakening, and the traditional downstream profit is still weak, with the overall valuation being neutral. The port is continuously accumulating a large amount of inventory, and the import volume remains high in September. The futures price fluctuates between trading the current high inventory and weak basis and the expectation of overseas gas restrictions in the future. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [19]. Urea Industry - The futures price of urea has rebounded, mainly due to short - covering driving the improvement of low - end spot transactions, rather than the substantial improvement of supply and demand. Device restart has brought the daily output back above 190,000 tons, and there will be further increments in the future, so the supply pressure continues to accumulate. On the demand side, it is the off - season for agriculture, the industrial demand is rigid, and the export is marginally weakening. The fundamentals do not provide continuous upward momentum. This rebound is more of a result of capital game and sentiment repair, and the upward height is limited by the dual pressures of supply expansion and export profit contraction. Attention should be paid to the restart and maintenance implementation rhythm of devices such as Henan Xinlianxin and Shanxi Tianze [25]. Benzene - Styrene Industry - For pure benzene, due to the unplanned maintenance of a reforming device in East China, the supply in September is lower than expected. On the demand side, most downstream products are in a loss state, and some products' secondary downstream inventories are high. In addition, the maintenance plan of downstream styrene devices increases from September to October, so the demand - side support weakens. The supply - demand of pure benzene in September is still expected to be relatively loose, and the price driving force is weak. However, in the short term, with the strong oil price and the improvement of the domestic commodity macro - atmosphere, the price center of pure benzene is expected to be supported. For styrene, the overall operating rate of downstream 3S has declined. Some styrene devices are under planned maintenance, and some have reduced their loads due to accidents, resulting in a continuous decline in the high - level port inventory. With the short - term strong oil price, the driving force of styrene is expected to strengthen, but the rebound space is still limited by the high port inventory [30]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all increased, with increases of 0.88%, 3.11%, 0.77%, and 2.65% respectively. The prices of spot products such as East China PP raffia and North China LDPE film also increased slightly [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate decreased by 3.11% to 78.0%, while PE downstream weighted operating rate increased by 2.70% to 42.2%. PP enterprise inventory and trader inventory increased by 8.06% and 14.74% respectively. PP device operating rate decreased by 3.9% to 76.8%, while PP powder operating rate increased by 4.1% to 37.5% [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Changes**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices all increased, with increases of 0.67%, 0.03%, and 0.82% respectively. The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil also showed different degrees of increase [4]. - **Market Logic**: The overnight oil price increase was mainly due to geopolitical conflicts, including Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, which threatened the output of refined oil and the export capacity of crude oil. The market's expectation of tight diesel supply heated up, and the US pressured its allies to stop buying Russian oil, further amplifying the supply - side risk premium. At the macro level, the expected Fed interest rate cut and the weakening US dollar provided upward momentum for oil prices [4]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and SH2509 decreased, while the prices of East China calcium carbide - based PVC and V2509 increased significantly, with increases of 1.3% and 13.2% respectively [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: For caustic soda, the operating rate is expected to decline due to maintenance, and the demand from the alumina industry is good but the price is falling. For PVC, the supply is expected to decrease due to more maintenance enterprises, and the demand from downstream products has increased slightly [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price Changes**: The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and CFR China PX increased, while the prices of some downstream polyester products such as POY150/48 and FDY150/96 decreased [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of most products in the polyester industry chain changed slightly. For example, the PTA operating rate increased by 4.0% to 76.8%, and the MEG comprehensive operating rate increased by 2.0% to 74.9% [13]. Methanol Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 increased, with increases of 0.71% and 6.59% respectively. The basis and spread also changed significantly [17]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol port inventory increased by 8.59% to 155.0 tons. The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.97% to 72.75%, and the downstream external MTO device operating rate decreased by 12.37% to 69.06% [17][18][19]. Urea Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts all increased, with increases of 1.20%, 0.76%, and 11.46% respectively [24]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of urea has returned above 190,000 tons due to device restart, and there will be further increments. The demand side is in the off - season for agriculture, with rigid industrial demand and marginal weakening export [25]. Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene in the spot and futures markets all increased slightly [30]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased, with decreases of 6.9% and 9.9% respectively. The operating rates of some products in the industry chain, such as Asian pure benzene and styrene, decreased [30].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The PTA market is affected by the decline in crude oil prices, weakening cost support. With the restart of domestic PTA devices, PTA output is rising, and the basis is rapidly declining. The OPEC+ meeting increased oil production again. Downstream profits have significantly recovered, and the polyester operating load has rebounded to 91%. [2] - The ethylene glycol basis is weakening. The upcoming commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's ethylene glycol device is putting pressure on the market. Although the arrival of overseas ethylene glycol devices has decreased, the hedging volume has increased after the price recovery. Polyester inventory is in good condition, and the downstream weaving load has rebounded. [2] Summary by Directory Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 489.2 yuan/barrel on September 11, 2025, to 475.3 yuan/barrel on September 12, 2025, a decrease of 13.9 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA主力期价 decreased from 4688 yuan/ton to 4648 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped from 4620 yuan/ton to 4575 yuan/ton. The spot and disk processing fees also decreased. The PTA - SC price difference increased by 61.01 yuan/ton, and the PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0270 [2]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 decreased from 4302 yuan/ton to 4272 yuan/ton, and the MEG - naphtha price difference decreased by 4.2 yuan/ton. The MEG internal market price dropped from 4414 yuan/ton to 4386 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price decreased from 838 to 832, and the PX - naphtha price difference decreased by 1 [2]. - **Polyester Products**: The prices and cash flows of most polyester products showed certain changes, and the sales rates of long - silk, short - fiber, and slices all decreased [2]. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - **PX**: The operating rate increased from 83.71% to 87.16%, an increase of 3.45% [2]. - **PTA**: The operating rate remained at 78.25% [2]. - **MEG**: The operating rate remained at 60.88% [2]. - **Polyester**: The load remained at 88.25% [2]. Device Maintenance - An East China 2.5 - million - ton PTA device restarted last weekend after shutting down for maintenance around August 26 [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【聚酯周报】 原油弱势，芳烃季节性转弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-09-15 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心：陈胜 从业资格证号：F3066728 投资咨询证号：Z0017251 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 聚酯：原油增产弱势，芳烃供给逐步回归 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 原油价格下跌，国内PTA装置供给端逐步回归，国内的惠州PTA供给增加，PTA基差走弱，PX与石脑油的价差收缩。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | 聚酯下游负荷维持91%左右的水平，聚酯工厂的库存表现乐观。聚酯主要负荷回升集中在瓶片品种，织造端的负荷小幅回升。 | | 库存 | 中性 | PTA的港口库存本周小幅去库1万吨，港口库存继续去库。 | | 基差 | 偏空 | PTA基差小幅走弱，PTA利润依然维持在低位，PTA市场的流动性非常宽松。 | | 利润 | 偏空 | PX与石脑油的价差到2 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on energy and chemical options, providing an early - morning strategy report for September 15, 2025 [2] - It covers various sectors including energy, polyolefins, polyesters, alkali chemicals, etc., and offers strategies and suggestions for different option varieties [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The energy and chemical sector is segmented into multiple sub - sectors. Each sub - sector's option varieties are analyzed in terms of fundamental information, market trends, option factors, and corresponding strategies are proposed [9] - The overall market trends of different option varieties show characteristics such as being under pressure, fluctuating, and having different levels of strength or weakness [8][10][11] - Strategies mainly include constructing option combination strategies, bear spread strategies, and spot hedging strategies to enhance returns or hedge risks [8][10][11] Group 4: Market Data Summary Futures Market - For different option varieties, the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of their underlying futures contracts are presented [4] Option Factors - **Volume and Open Interest PCR**: The volume and open interest PCR data of different option varieties are analyzed, which can be used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning points of the market [5] - **Pressure and Support Levels**: The pressure and support levels of different option varieties are identified from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interests of call and put options [6] - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility data of different option varieties are provided, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and their changes compared with the annual average [7] Group 5: Strategy and Suggestions for Different Option Varieties Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: Based on fundamental data and market trends, it is recommended to construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [8] - **LPG**: Considering the fundamental situation and market trends, a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging are suggested [10] Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: A bear spread strategy for directional trading and a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility are recommended, along with a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: A bear spread strategy for directional trading, a short - volatility strategy for volatility, and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging are proposed [11] Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: A long - collar strategy for spot hedging is recommended [11] Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: A neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility is suggested [12] Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: A short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility is recommended [13] Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: A long - collar strategy for spot hedging is recommended [14] - **Soda Ash**: A short - volatility combination strategy for volatility and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging are proposed [14] Urea Options - A short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended [15]

此外，浙江大宗还与宁波银行在舟山联合主办"走进浙江国际大宗商品交易中心"主题沙龙，邀请企业代 表前往舟山实地参观考察，通过"走出去+请进来"双向赋能、双轨联动，以多元互动模式搭建产业对话 平台，助力企业共探发展机遇，为后续合作奠定良好基础。 浙江大宗副总经理汪剑表示，时值全国首个大宗商品资源配置枢纽建设的关键阶段，"浙江大宗正以此 为契机，持续深化会员服务创新，进一步推动期现一体化交易市场建设，全力赋能大宗商品企业高质量 发展。期待与各优质企业携手把握资源配置枢纽建设带来的战略机遇，共同开拓企业发展新空间，开创 产业建设新局面"。 据悉，浙江大宗正加速推进钢铁、有色、煤炭、聚酯等大宗商品企业集聚，目前已引进战略新品类企业 百余家，累计集聚近3700家会员企业，年贸易交易规模超5000亿元。近日新增铁矿石、动力煤、电解铜 三类交易品种，品种备案数量已达44个，国际大宗商品市场话语权持续提升。下一步，浙江大宗将持续 贴近市场，与行业伙伴共探钢铁行业发展新路径，同绘产业升级新图景。 近期，浙江国际大宗商品交易中心（下称浙江大宗）开启"大宗势力"系列招商活动，旨在依托浙江自贸 试验区制度创新优势，瞄准钢铁、有色金属等 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a "Cautiously Optimistic" investment rating [3][4]. Core Insights - OPEC's actual production increase is lower than expected, leading to an anticipated stable oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in the medium term [4][5]. - The upstream sector shows signs of recovery with oil prices rising, while drilling day rates remain stable [4][24]. - The refining sector is experiencing mixed results, with some product margins improving while others decline [4]. - The polyester sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability as supply and demand dynamics improve [4][18]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $66.99 per barrel, a week-on-week increase of 2.27%, while WTI futures rose by 1.33% to $62.69 per barrel [4][24]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.42 million barrels to 425 million barrels, remaining 4% lower than the five-year average [24][25]. - The number of active U.S. drilling rigs increased by 2 to 539, although this is a decrease of 51 rigs year-on-year [35][38]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products decreased to $16.66 per barrel, down by $1.41 from the previous week [4]. - The price spread between gasoline and WTI crude oil fell to $18.30 per barrel, down by $2.48 from the previous week [4]. - The report suggests that refining profitability may improve as economic recovery progresses [4]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have declined, with the average price in East China at 4606.6 CNY per ton, down 2.02% week-on-week [4]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in the polyester industry as new capacity additions taper off in the coming years [4][18]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [4][18]. - In the refining sector, it suggests monitoring quality companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [4][18]. - For upstream exploration and production, it highlights companies like CNOOC and China National Petroleum Corporation as having strong prospects [4][18].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 钱嘉寅（联系人）期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年9月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 瓶片（PR） 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 03 短纤（PF） 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 CONTENTS 01 观点小结 上游观点汇总 瓶片：震荡偏弱 2 02 观点小结 01 本周短纤观点：成本支撑不足单边震荡偏弱，加工费高位震荡 供应 工厂开工小幅提升，本周工厂平均开工率94.4%，纺纱用直纺涤短开工98%，总体开工已经高位，旺季供应进一步提高空间有限。 需求 9月旺季需求提升，低价下游采购较好。短纤去库，1.4D权益库存在9.1天，实物库存18.8天。9月下游开工负荷保持环比提升，各个环节都还 在季节性去库的趋势，纱线、织造环节 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Polyester Sector**: In the short - term, supply is expected to increase while demand improvement is limited, so the polyester sector will run weakly. In the medium - to - long - term, with unobvious demand peak season features, the polyester sector will fluctuate widely within a range [41][42]. - **Methanol**: In the short - term, although it is the demand peak season, the supply side still has pressure, and methanol will continue to fluctuate within a range. In the medium - to - long - term, there is continuous pressure on the supply side and stable demand support, resulting in a multi - empty game for methanol [60][61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Crude Oil Important News - Israel's strike on Hamas in Qatar has increased Middle East tensions, providing some support for crude oil prices. However, EIA and IEA monthly reports have raised global oil supply growth forecasts, and EIA inventory data shows a seasonal decline in US crude oil demand, making it difficult for oil prices to rise. If the geopolitical situation eases, the pressure for crude oil adjustment will increase [6][7][41]. - OPEC + agreed to increase crude oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, with a lower increase rate compared to previous months. The organization is adhering to the policy of competing for market share, and the new round of production increase in October means starting to lift the 1.66 million barrels per day of agreed production cuts [7]. - The EU is preparing the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, targeting six Russian banks and energy companies, and expanding to payment systems, credit card networks, and cryptocurrency platforms [7]. - The IEA has raised the forecast for global oil supply growth this year and hinted at a possible surplus in 2026. Supply growth is much faster than demand growth [7]. - EIA weekly data shows a decline in US refined oil demand and an increase in inventories, indicating a peak in demand [8]. - The increase in the number of initial jobless claims in the US has verified the weakness of the employment market, which will weaken residents' consumption ability and energy demand expectations, leading to a more pessimistic market expectation for US oil product demand [9]. 3.2 Polyester Sector 3.2.1 Futures and Spot Prices - WTI crude oil continuous decreased by 1.71% week - on - week, while the price of some polyester products such as PX and PTA increased slightly, and the price of EG decreased [11]. - The basis of some products such as PX decreased, while the basis of some products such as ethylene glycol increased [11]. 3.2.2 Supply - **PX**: The 800,000 - ton unit of Fuhai Chuang restarted, and the Asian PX capacity utilization rate increased slightly. Next week, some units will be under maintenance while Fuhai Chuang's unit will release production, so the weekly output of PX is expected to increase slightly [20]. - **PTA**: Some previously shut - down units restarted this week, and the supply increased. Next week, large - scale units such as Fuhai Chuang are planned to restart, and the supply is expected to continue to increase, with the supply - demand situation possibly turning to inventory accumulation [25]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: New units have successfully conducted test runs, increasing the expected domestic supply pressure. The supply decreased slightly this week, and the port inventory decreased slightly. Next week, the port inventory may first accumulate and then decline [28]. 3.2.3 Demand - The polyester end had an average weekly operating rate of 87.9%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56 percentage points. Polyester filament continued to accumulate inventory this week [29][32]. - Terminal seasonal orders were generally average, and downstream demand had not significantly improved. The Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate remained stable, the number of orders from textile enterprises increased slightly, and the inventory of grey fabrics decreased slightly [36][38][39]. 3.3 Methanol Sector 3.3.1 Futures, Spot, and Downstream Prices - The futures price of MA2601 decreased by 1.49% week - on - week, and the basis increased by 29.29%. The price of methanol in Taicang decreased slightly, while the CFR price increased [44]. - Among the downstream products, the prices of formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, and MTBE increased, while the price of dimethyl ether remained unchanged [44]. 3.3.2 Cost and Profit - This week, due to the increase in the methanol spot price, the profits of the three major production processes all improved, with a week - on - week increase. The downstream profits mostly decreased slightly, but the MTO profit was still at a relatively high level in previous years, and the profits of acetic acid and MTBE increased for two consecutive weeks [49][50]. 3.3.3 Supply - As of September 11, the methanol unit capacity utilization rate was 84.58%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.05 percentage points. China's methanol production was 1.9192 million tons, a decrease of 43,500 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.21%. This week, the number of shut - down units was greater than the number of restarted units. Next week, some units are planned to restart [53]. - As of September 10, China's methanol port inventory was 1.5503 million tons, an increase of 122,600 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 8.59%. The port continued to significantly accumulate inventory, and the supply side was under continuous pressure, with goods flowing back to the inland. The inland inventory was 342,600 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3% [59]. 3.3.4 Demand - Affected by the maintenance of the olefin unit of Qinghai Salt Lake, the olefin operating load decreased slightly this week. With profit restoration and the expectation of some olefin unit restarts, the olefin operating rate still has room to rise. The operating rates of traditional downstream industries fluctuated, with no obvious positive signs [60]. - The restart of Zhejiang Xingxing will provide some support for the demand in the coastal market and may promote port inventory reduction. The subsequent olefin procurement plans and the continuous high import volume need to be continuously monitored [60].