投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 装置检修动态:华东一套150万吨PTA装置目前已投料重启,该装置5.6附近停车检修。华东一套300万吨PTA装置已于近日停车检 修,预计10天附近。 PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 5200 4000 300 100 4200 3000 -100 -300 3200 2000 2025- 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2023- 2024- 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2024-07 2024-09 01 01 01 05 09 05 09 05 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 POY现金流 -FDY现金流 =DTY现金流 800 涤短现金流 切片现金流 600 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 01 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | 一国贸易货 险,入市需谨慎。 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | Z0017251 2025/7/8 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号: | | | | | | F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/7/4 | 2025/7/7 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4835 | 4810 | (25.00) | | | | | | | 现货资讯: | | MEG内盘价格 | 4365 | 4345 | (20. 00) | 短纤:涤纶短纤跌32至6518。现货市场:涤纶 | | PTA收盘价 | 4710 | 4710 | 0.00 | 短纤生产企业价格商谈为主,贸易商价格下跌, | | MEG收盘价 | 4277 | 4279 | 2. 00 | 下游按需采买,市场成交温吞。1.56dtex*38mm | | | | | | 半光本白(1.4D)涤纶短纤华东市场价格在6550- | | 1.4D直纺 ...

聚酯产业链期货周报 研究员：隋斐 期货从业证号：F3019741 投资咨询证号：Z0017025 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第二章 核心逻辑分析 5 | | | GALAXY FUTURES 1 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 综合分析与交易策略 | 品种 | 逻辑分析 | 交易策略 | | --- | --- | --- | | | PX社会库存目前偏低，供应端偏紧，本周中长流程制利润走缩，亚洲 PX 开工率回落，三季度海外日本Eneos条 | | | | 35万6月下意外停车，预计一个月，韩国Hanwha，泰国石油也有检修计划， 下游PTA三房巷320万吨装置预计8月 | | | | 投产，新凤鸣300万吨装置投产在10月，直接拉动PX需求，OPEC在8月考虑增产55万桶/日，PX预计短期跟随成 | 单边：短期震荡整理 | | PX&P | 本端。 | 套利：观望 | | TA | 近期PTA基差大幅下滑，周内山东威联化学250万吨装置检修，逸盛新材料360万吨装置负荷恢复，逸盛海南200万 | 期权：观望 | | | 吨PTA装置因故降负至5成附近，恒力2 ...

免责声 | 聚酯数据日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/7/3 | | 陈胜 | | 能源化工研究中心 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | | 2025/7/1 | 2025/7/2 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | -1.20 | INE原油(元/桶) SC PTA-SC(元/吨) | 499. 4 1170.8 | 498. 2 1173.5 | 2.72 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情下跌,盘中原油价格窄幅震荡,PTA行情 小跌。现货基差均值较上一交易日下跌,早盘PTA现货 | | | | | | | 递盘基差较低,市场买气有所回升,午后现货基差较 | | 1. 3226 | PTA/SC(比价) | | 1. 3241 | 0. 0015 | 早盘微幅走强。 | | CFR中国PX | | 861 | 854 | -7 | | | PX-石脑油价差 | PX | 288 | 283 | -5 | | | PTA主力期价(元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The futures products of the polyester industry chain have returned to fundamental trading. The fundamentals of PTA are weakening, but PX fundamentals remain tight, and the floating price of the spot is strongly maintained. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting and the expiration of the tariff extension deadline in July, as well as the repeated risks at the geopolitical end [1] - In the short term, the crude oil market will focus on fundamentals and tariff impacts. In the fourth quarter, it is expected to enter a state of oversupply, with a bearish medium - term market driver. The upside potential of gasoline cracking spreads is limited, and the demand for blending oil this year is not worth much expectation. PX short - flow plants have restarted external procurement of MX due to profit recovery [2] - PTA's own fundamentals are neutral, and attention should be paid to cost and demand support. The polyester start - up rate is 91.4% (down 0.6% month - on - month), and it is expected to decline to 89% - 90% in July. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation [3] - The fundamentals of PF are acceptable, but the downstream's acceptance of high - priced raw materials is limited, and the demand is expected to weaken. Attention should be paid to cost support [3] - The processing fee of PR is expected to recover with the implementation of production cuts, but the current profit is still low [4] - For trading strategies, the unilateral ratings of PX/PTA/PF/PR are neutral. There are no cross - variety strategies. For cross - period strategies, after the sentiment weakens, attention can be paid to the opportunity of going long in the positive spread of PX/PTA monthly spreads at low prices [5] Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The charts show the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [10][11][13] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - The charts present PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [19][22] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The charts display the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [27][29] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - The charts show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [30][33][35] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The charts present PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][41][42] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - The charts show filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament DTY, FDY, and POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rate [49][51][53] VII. PF Detailed Data - The charts show polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [70][73][76] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The charts show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle - chip next - next - month spread (next next month - base month) [95][97][104]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/7/1 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/6/27 | 2025/6/30 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) | 498.5 | 496. 7 | -1.80 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情上涨,盘中PX行情偏强,成本支撑PTA。 或担忧下游聚酯减产,PTA现货基差走弱。 | | | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1155. 4 | 1188. 4 | 33. 08 | | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3189 | 1. 3292 | 0. 0103 | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 868 | 874 | 6 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 298 | 304 | 6 | | | | PTA主力期价(元/吨) | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The futures products of the polyester industry chain have returned to fundamental trading. Attention should be paid to whether the bottle chip production reduction plan under the previous high raw material prices can be fulfilled after the raw material prices decline. The PX fundamentals remain tight, and the spot floating price remains strong. Macro factors such as the OPEC+ meeting in July and the expiration of the tariff extension period need to be monitored, as well as the repeated risks at the geopolitical end [1] - After the game of the Middle East conflict, the crude oil market will focus on fundamentals and tariff impacts in the short term. Affected by the low inventory in Cushing, the delivery location, the structure remains strong, and the pattern of strong reality and weak expectation has not changed. However, in the fourth quarter of this year, after the peak season ends, the demand growth elasticity will be significantly smaller than that of the supply side, and the market is expected to enter a state of oversupply, with a bearish medium - term market driver [2] - The gasoline cracking spread in the United States has retraced again recently. With the background of new energy substitution, the upside potential of the gasoline cracking spread is limited. The domestic and foreign intermittent blending demand can be basically met by naphtha, which restricts the enthusiasm of aromatics to enter the gasoline pool. Since March, the export of aromatic blending materials (toluene + MX + PX) from South Korea to the United States has decreased significantly. Recently, attention should be paid to the resumption of short - flow PX plants with the recovery of profits [2] - PTA's own fundamentals are neutral, and attention should be paid to cost and demand support. The polyester start - up rate is 91.4% (down 0.6% month - on - month), and both domestic and foreign sales have entered the off - season. Terminal orders and start - up show a downward trend, but polyester performance is relatively good, and the load is firm. The short - fiber inventory is not high, and although there are also production reduction news, the actual implementation is in doubt. For bottle chips, the 20% maintenance of China Resources on June 22 has been implemented, and Wankai Yisheng plans to start maintenance in early July, involving a production capacity of 1.7 million tons. The polyester load in July is expected to drop to 89% - 90%, and attention should be paid to the actual fulfillment [3] - The short - fiber spot is tight and the inventory is not high, and the PF's own fundamentals are acceptable, but the downstream's acceptance of high raw material prices is limited, mostly for rigid demand procurement, and there is an expectation of weakening demand, so attention should be paid to cost - side support [3] - The spot processing fee of bottle chips is 263 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton month - on - month). With the slight loosening of sea freight in some areas, some overseas customers have replenished goods in moderation, and the inventory of polyester bottle chip factories has decreased slightly. In terms of load, the polyester bottle chip plants of China Resources in Changzhou and Jiangyin have reduced production by 20% since June 22, and Yisheng and Wankai also plan to conduct maintenance in early July, with a total production capacity of 1.7 million tons. The bottle chip load is expected to decline further. In the short term, the current bottle chip profit is still low, and the processing fee is expected to recover with the gradual fulfillment of production reduction [4] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX CFR China - Naphtha CFR Japan), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures involve toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][27] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [29][32][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [39][42][43] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament DTY factory inventory days, filament FDY factory inventory days, filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing start - up rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rate [50][52][63] PF Detailed Data - Figures include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [74][82][84] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures involve polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chip, bottle chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle chip next - next - month spread (next - next month - base month) [91][95][98]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the off - season of demand and with low valuations, there is no need to chase short positions in the short term. For PX, supply continues to shrink, and the unilateral price rebounds. For PTA, the cost is supported, but the monthly spread is under pressure, with the unilateral price oscillating slightly stronger. For MEG, the unilateral price oscillates stably, and the strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG should be closed [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PX 3.1.1 Valuation and Profit - The volatility of the unilateral price comes from crude oil. In July, the supply - demand of PX remains tight, and it is advisable to go long on the monthly spread at low prices. The PXN strengthens, and the gasoline cracking spread also strengthens, improving the refinery's enthusiasm for starting operations. The toluene disproportionation profit continues to rise, while the toluene chemical economy weakens month - on - month, and the MX chemical economy rebounds month - on - month [18][22][30]. 3.1.2 Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The load of CICC Petrochemical decreases, and the PX load slightly drops. In July, attention should be paid to the maintenance plans of Tianjin Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical. In May, the domestic PX output increased to 2.97 million tons, and the weekly operating rate was 83.8% (- 1.8%). The apparent consumption in May was 3.55 million tons. In May, the import volume increased to 773,000 tons month - on - month. The Asian PX device operating rate this week was 74.3% (- 1.3%). In May, the Longzhong PX monthly inventory decreased to 4.51 million tons [53][55][62][79]. 3.2 PTA 3.2.1 Valuation and Profit - The TA device load increases, and the volume of credit warehouse receipts increases at high prices. The cost rises, the PX profit decreases, and the PTA profit remains at a low level. The 9 - 1 monthly spread around 200 yuan is recommended to be closed or appropriately reverse - arbitraged [89][96][95]. 3.2.2 Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The de - stocking intensity narrows, and this week may turn into a stocking pattern. In May, the PTA output was 5.91 million tons, a 1% increase month - on - month. The container freight rate drops, which is beneficial for exports. In May, the export volume was 270,000 tons, a significant decrease. The social inventory is 2.16 million tons (- 40,000 tons), the de - stocking slope slows down, and it will gradually turn into a stocking pattern in July [99][101][108][122]. 3.3 MEG 3.3.1 Valuation and Profit - With the return of Iranian supply and weakening demand, the monthly spread and basis drop significantly. The seasonal demand for ethylene oxide decreases, and attention should be paid to the conversion of production. The profits of coal - based, MTO, and ethylene - purchased MEG production decline from high levels, while the profit of naphtha - based MEG production recovers [130][134][136]. 3.3.2 Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The device operating rate drops. In May, the ethylene glycol import volume was 600,000 tons, and the import from the Middle East decreased. The impact of the Middle East geopolitical conflict on ethylene glycol imports may be reflected in August. The import profit decreases month - on - month, which may affect the June imports. The port continues to de - stock, and the import volume will continue to increase to 110,000 - 120,000 tons next week [144][146][151][156]. 3.4 Polyester 3.4.1 Valuation and Profit No relevant content provided. 3.4.2 Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The polyester operating rate is 91.2% (- 0.8%). Multiple polyester devices reduce production, and the overall load will drop to 89.3%. The polyester output increases by 8% year - on - year. This week, the sales are sluggish, and the downstream enters the off - season [160][163][166][168].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The futures products of the polyester industry chain have returned to fundamental trading, and attention should be paid to whether the bottle chip production reduction plan can be implemented after the raw material prices decline. The fundamentals of PX remain tight, and the spot floating price remains strong [1] - If there are no new variables during the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the oil market will shift from geopolitical to fundamental drivers. The oil market is in a stage of increasing supply and demand, with limited short - term pressure. However, in the fourth quarter, it is expected to be in a state of oversupply [2] - The gasoline cracking spread in the US has declined again, and the upside potential is limited. The intermittent blending demand at home and abroad can be basically met by naphtha, which restricts the enthusiasm of aromatics entering the gasoline pool [2] - Overseas PX operation rates have declined significantly due to geopolitical conflicts and delayed restarts of some plants. Some domestic PX plants are scheduled for maintenance at the end of the month, and the spot market is still short of supply [2] - With the cancellation of a large number of warehouse receipts and the delivery of major suppliers, the tight supply situation in the PTA spot market has eased, and the fundamental contradictions of PTA are not significant [5] - The polyester operation rate is 92.0% (up 1.1% month - on - month). The domestic and foreign sales are in the off - season, but the polyester performance is relatively good, and the load is firm. However, the inventory pressure may increase when the prices fluctuate at high levels [3] - The short - fiber inventory is not high, but the implementation of the production reduction plan is in doubt. The polyester bottle chip processing fee is still under pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether the production reduction plan can be implemented and the change of container freight rates [3][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [10][11][13] Upstream Profits and Spreads - It covers PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [19][22] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It includes toluene US - Asia spreads, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan CFR naphtha spreads, and PTA export profits [27][29] Upstream PX and PTA Operation Rates - Figures show the operation rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as PX operation rates in China and Asia [30][33][35] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [39][42][43] Downstream Polyester Load - It covers filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operation rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing [50][52][63] PF Detailed Data - It includes 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spreads, pure polyester yarn operation rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operation rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [75][85][91] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It includes polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, the price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle chip next - month spread, and bottle chip next - next - month spread [94][96][101]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/6/26 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/6/24 | 2025/6/25 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 518. 6 | 508. 6 | -10.00 | 成交情况: | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1007. 3 | 1094. 0 | 86. 67 | PTA: PTA行情下跌,地缘局势缓和,市场预估原油续 跌,PTA行情下跌。PTA现货货少,现货基差仍然较强 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1.2673 | 1. 2960 | 0. 0287 | | | | CFR中国PX | 859 | 849 | -10 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 217 | 263 | 46 | | | | PTA主力 ...