点击下方关注许亚鑫，加★星标★，充值鑫仰！ 晚上的直播课，我分别从"GDP下修与债务倒计时"，"北约峰会与对等关税"，"江河保护治理与小米发布会"，"虚拟币牌照与国产CPU"四个方面解读了基 本面的一些信息，并结合GDP，美债，加拿大，北约峰会，关税，金银油，水利，小米，SUV，人民币，A股，港股等给出了接下来的布局思路。 我在前文《》提醒过大家，金价下方有个非常重要的均线支撑，并且未来大概率要去底部寻找支撑。 今天，黄金的价格从3328美元/盎司跌落，加速触及3255美元/盎司的低点。 除了中东局势避险降温以外，主要还是中美之前关税的消息。 有记者问：近日，美方有关官员和媒体称，中美已就落实日内瓦共识的框架达成了补充谅解， 中国将加快向美国出口稀土，美方相应取消对华有关限制 措施。请问商务部对此有何评论？ 答：在中美两国元首共识指引下，双方经贸团队于6月9日至10日在伦敦举行经贸会谈，就落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的 框架达成原则一致。伦敦会谈后，中美双方团队保持着密切沟通。近日，经批准，双方进一步确认了框架细节。 中方将依法审批符合条件的管制物项出 口申请。美方将相应取消对华采 ...

印度央行：政府证券市场、外汇市场和利率衍生品市场的交易时间保持不变。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the escalation of tensions in the Middle East following the U.S. military action against Iran's nuclear facilities, which has led to a more unpredictable security and political landscape in the region [1] - International crude oil prices have surged approximately 10% within a week after the Israeli attack on Iran, with a total increase of over 20% for June, indicating heightened geopolitical risks affecting global commodity and financial markets [3] - Iran has threatened to consider closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil trade, which could significantly impact global economies reliant on Middle Eastern oil supplies [3] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the U.S. military action may not only exacerbate tensions with Iran but also lead to further increases in international oil prices, potentially raising global inflation levels and affecting monetary policies worldwide [3] - The international community is calling for restraint to prevent further escalation of conflict, with the UN Secretary-General emphasizing that diplomatic solutions are the only viable path to resolve the current crisis [4] - The long-standing differences between the U.S. and Iran, coupled with the profound impacts of recent events, suggest that achieving a genuine peace solution may take considerable time [4]

研究中心宏观团队 2025/06/23 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/06/20 | 4.378 | 4.536 | 3.244 | 2.516 | 3.496 | 3.215 | 0.373 | 3.294 | 最新变化 | -0.015 | 0.007 | -0.027 | -0.004 | -0.025 | 0.039 | 0.060 ...

Group 1: Market Reactions - Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline, dropping over 3% from above $102,500, currently at $100,580 [1] - The Israeli TA-35 stock index closed up by 1.5% amid the escalating tensions [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Developments - The Iranian parliament has voted to potentially close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime route for global oil trade [2] - A U.S. maritime information center has warned that vessels associated with the U.S. face a "high risk" following the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities [2] Group 3: Military Actions and Responses - An American official acknowledged that the B-2 bomber attack did not completely destroy Iran's Fordow nuclear facility but caused significant damage [5] - Following the strikes, U.S. security agencies heightened alert levels, with the Department of Homeland Security and FBI closely monitoring the situation [6] - U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the U.S. has "completely eliminated" three Iranian nuclear facilities and warned of greater attacks if Iran does not seek peace [6] Group 4: Security Measures - Police in Washington D.C. and New York City have increased security measures and shared intelligence with federal agencies, focusing on protecting religious and cultural sites [7]

Group 1 - The Israeli stock market showed resilience amid geopolitical tensions, with the TA-125 index opening up 1% and reaching a historical high, reflecting investor confidence in the country's economic fundamentals [1] - The strong performance of the TA-35 index, which opened with a gain of 0.9%, further confirms the positive sentiment among investors regarding Israel's ability to manage geopolitical risks [1] - In contrast, the Egyptian stock index experienced a significant decline of 1.5%, indicating investor concerns about regional stability and the potential chain reactions from U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities [1] Group 2 - Egypt's economy is highly dependent on energy supplies, particularly natural gas imports from Israel, making it sensitive to disruptions in energy supply chains [2] - The decision by Israel to close the Leviathan gas field directly impacts Egypt's energy supply expectations, leading to cautious investor sentiment regarding Egypt's economic outlook [2]

Group 1 - A significant trend is the unprecedented reallocation of capital, with a notable increase in investment funds in the U.S. reaching $62 trillion, up approximately $30 trillion over the past decade, indicating a growing desire for diversification among investors [1] - External risks, such as fluctuating U.S. tariff policies and high equity valuations, have led to a global rebalancing of capital, prompting investors to sell off dollar assets and seek opportunities elsewhere, particularly in China [2][3] - China's financial market is seen as a major opportunity for foreign capital due to its policy stability, complete industrial structure, and technological advancements, marking a shift in foreign investment from marginal participation to core allocation [4] Group 2 - To capitalize on the influx of foreign capital, China needs to implement institutional reforms, including improving market access, removing foreign ownership limits, and optimizing cross-border investment policies [4][5] - Strengthening monetary policy is essential, with the central bank having introduced various structural monetary tools to support key sectors and stabilize the economy [5] - Enhancing connectivity with international financial markets and improving financial infrastructure is crucial for risk management and financial stability [5][6] Group 3 - There is a need to deepen the two-way opening of capital markets to facilitate foreign investment, including expanding the coverage of mutual market access mechanisms and increasing the range of investment products available to foreign investors [5][6] - Specific areas for improvement include the inclusion of small-cap stocks and illiquid stocks in mutual access programs, as well as expanding the types of bonds and futures available for foreign investment [6]

Core Viewpoint - MSCI highlights that restrictions on the use of stock market data in South Korea are limiting the availability of investment tools [1] Group 1 - MSCI indicates that the limitations imposed by South Korea on stock market data usage are affecting the development and accessibility of investment products [1] - The company emphasizes that these restrictions could hinder foreign investment and market competitiveness [1] - MSCI calls for a review of these data usage policies to enhance the investment landscape in South Korea [1]

Key Points - The People's Bank of China announced eight policy measures to be implemented in Shanghai, focusing on enhancing the financial market infrastructure and promoting digital currency [1][2] - The establishment of an interbank market trading report database aims to collect and analyze trading data across various financial sub-markets [1] - A digital RMB international operation center will be set up to facilitate the internationalization of digital currency and support financial market innovation [1] - The creation of a personal credit agency will provide diversified credit products to financial institutions, improving the social credit system [1] - A pilot program for offshore trade finance services will be launched in the Shanghai Lingang New Area to support offshore trade development [1] - The development of offshore bonds will expand financing channels for enterprises involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [1] - The optimization of free trade account functions will enhance the efficient flow of funds between quality enterprises and foreign capital [1] - Structural monetary policy tools will be innovated in Shanghai, including blockchain credit refinancing and cross-border trade refinancing [2] - The discussion on the international monetary system highlights the need for a balanced competition among a few strong sovereign currencies [2][3] - The potential for Special Drawing Rights (SDR) to become an international reserve currency is emphasized, requiring political consensus and operational improvements [3] - The global cross-border payment system is evolving towards greater efficiency and inclusivity, driven by emerging technologies [3] - The global financial stability framework faces new challenges, necessitating a robust international financial safety net led by the IMF [4] - The governance of international financial organizations, particularly the IMF, requires adjustments in quota shares to reflect the economic standing of member countries [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent issuance of the "Opinions on Supporting the Acceleration of Building Shanghai International Financial Center," which outlines six key measures aimed at enhancing Shanghai's competitiveness and influence as an international financial hub, with a focus on increasing financial internationalization [1][2][7]. Summary of Key Measures - **Deepening Financial Market Development**: The initiative aims to promote high-quality development of multi-tiered equity markets, enhance the positioning of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, and support the establishment of a high-quality development demonstration zone for listed companies. It also emphasizes the development of a multi-tiered bond market and the establishment of a world-class futures exchange in Shanghai [3]. - **Enhancing Financial Institution Capabilities**: The plan includes attracting various domestic and foreign financial institutions, fostering strong and compliant financial holding companies, and increasing the global competitiveness of financial institutions through reforms [3][4]. - **Improving Financial Infrastructure**: The focus is on building an internationally leading financial infrastructure system, enhancing the cross-border payment and clearing system for the Renminbi, and developing the infrastructure for the gold market [3][4]. - **Expanding High-Level Financial Openness**: The measures aim to steadily expand institutional openness in the financial sector, facilitate cross-border trade and investment, and deepen cooperation in financing for the Belt and Road Initiative [4][9]. - **Enhancing Service Quality for the Real Economy**: The initiative includes establishing a financial reform pilot zone for technological innovation, developing green finance standards, and supporting the construction of a unified financing credit service platform [4][9]. - **Maintaining Financial Security Under Open Conditions**: The plan emphasizes the use of advanced technologies like blockchain and AI for risk assessment and prevention, establishing a monitoring and early warning system for cross-border capital flows [4][9]. Implementation and Coordination - The Central Financial Office will collaborate with the Shanghai municipal government and various financial regulatory bodies to establish a coordination mechanism for the implementation of these measures, ensuring that the decisions made by the central government regarding the construction of the Shanghai International Financial Center are effectively executed [5].