Group 1 - Global markets showed significant turmoil with US stocks reversing previous gains and entering a new downtrend, while US Treasury yields plummeted and gold prices reached an all-time high, indicating a market pricing in a potential recession [1] - Two key events next week are expected to have a major impact on the market: the annual revision of US employment data and the release of the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1][2] Group 2 - The upcoming revision of US employment data is anticipated to be significant, with expectations of a substantial downward adjustment that could heighten recession concerns and influence Federal Reserve policy decisions amid increasing economic uncertainty [1] - The August CPI data will be crucial for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in September, with diverging market expectations potentially leading to increased volatility depending on whether the CPI data is higher or lower than anticipated [2][3] - There is an expanding gap between market expectations and those of the Federal Reserve, with the market pricing in multiple rate cuts, which could lead to significant market fluctuations following the release of key data [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a brief rally but ultimately closed lower, reflecting heightened concerns over recession risks despite expectations of significant interest rate cuts [1] - U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply across the board, with long-term bonds leading the decline, indicating a more pessimistic outlook in the bond market compared to equities, as funds are pricing in a recession rather than merely reacting to rate cut expectations [1] - Gold reached an all-time high, hitting $3600 per ounce during trading, signifying its transition from a commodity to a tool for hedging against systemic risks [1] Group 2 - Market participants are anticipating substantial interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve to address economic challenges, but data from Goldman Sachs suggests that financial conditions are already extremely loose, implying that further rate cuts may not effectively support the stock market as the underlying issue lies within the economy [1]

格隆汇9月5日｜TradingKey高级经济学家Jason Tang表示，考虑到各行业相互抵消的趋势，8月份非农就 业数据不太可能大幅上升或下降。我们认为，这份非农就业报告对美国金融市场的主要风险不在于8月 数据本身，而在于7月数据是否面临大幅向下修正。如果7月份的数据被大幅下调，我们预计美国股市将 经历一场大幅下跌，随后在同一天反弹。具体来说，大幅下调将表明劳动力市场疲软，促使投资者参 与"经济放缓交易"。这可能会导致美国股指期货在盘前走软，美股开盘后出现下跌。随后，"经济放缓 交易"可能转变为"降息交易"，最终推动美股从盘中低点反弹。 ...

Core Viewpoint - France is facing a political crisis with Prime Minister Borne's government on the brink of collapse, which may lead to a larger economic or debt crisis if a strong fiscal consolidation plan is not implemented [1][6] Political Situation - A confidence vote in parliament is scheduled for September 8, with Borne's government likely to lose due to unpopular austerity measures [1] - Major political parties in France have vowed to overthrow the government unless unexpected abstentions occur [1] - President Macron aims to avoid early elections by seeking a consensus among parties to appoint a new Prime Minister [1] Debt Concerns - Analysts warn that without a robust fiscal plan, France's public debt-to-GDP ratio could rise by 10 percentage points to 125% by 2030 [4] - The current political deadlock is pushing the economy towards a dangerous edge, with market concerns already evident as long-term government bonds face selling pressure [2][5] Economic Outlook - The French economy is described as lacking growth momentum, with domestic demand suppressed by high political uncertainty [5] - Any tightening of financing conditions could jeopardize the anticipated economic recovery expected in 2026 [5] - The immediate economic consequences are currently manageable, but long-term investor concerns about France's fiscal situation are growing [6]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound has experienced significant volatility, primarily due to concerns over fiscal sustainability and political uncertainty in the UK, leading to a notable decline against the US dollar [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - As of September 4, the GBP/USD exchange rate is at 1.3434, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.04% from the previous close of 1.3440 [1] - The pound fell sharply by 1.15% on September 2, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly two months [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - The UK government's borrowing costs have risen to their highest level since 1998, indicating strong market concerns regarding fiscal stability [1] - Prime Minister Starmer's urgent reshuffle of the senior economic advisory team has raised investor doubts about the continuity and stability of economic policies, further undermining market confidence [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - A widespread sell-off in major global bond markets has led to a significant increase in UK bond yields, intensifying downward pressure on the pound [1] - The daily chart for GBP/USD indicates a double top reversal pattern, with key moving averages suggesting potential for further upward movement, although caution is advised due to the current market conditions [1]

里拉的跌幅并不大，因为在经济动荡时期，由于有国家支持的商业贷款机构在外汇市场占据重要地位， 货币往往会保持相对稳定。 Deniz Invest研究部副总经理Orkun Godek表示："我们预计在 9 月剩余时间里，其他法律程序仍将是投资 者关注的焦点。" 此次政治动荡对于土耳其的政策制定者而言恰逢一个棘手的时刻，因为此时土耳其央行刚刚因通胀放缓 而重启了降息周期。今年 3 月，由于埃尔多安最强劲的竞争对手共和人民党籍伊斯坦布尔市长Ekrem Imamoglu被捕导致里拉和当地资产大量抛售，土耳其央行不得不取消此前的降息举措。 智通财经APP获悉，土耳其主要反对党呼吁于周三在伊斯坦布尔举行抗议活动。此前，一项意外判决引 发了人们对该国民主制度的担忧，并导致该国股市在上一交易日市值缩水 92 亿美元。土耳其一家法院 周二下令罢免主要反对党共和人民党(CHP)在伊斯坦布尔省的领导层，此举可能打乱该党挑战总统埃尔 多安的计划。 在周二的临时裁决中，法院宣布CHP伊斯坦布尔代表大会无效，并撤销了其省级管理部门，此举有可能 导致反对派的全国领导层崩溃，包括CHP主席Ozgur Ozel。一些其任命被取消的代表是 202 ...

Group 1 - The upcoming two weeks will see the release of significant economic data including non-farm payrolls, inflation rates, interest rate decisions, and options expirations, creating a volatile environment for the S&P 500, which recently reached a new high of 6500 points [2] - The market is currently pricing in only 85 basis points of volatility, which is significantly lower than historical averages, indicating a lack of belief that employment data will deviate from the expected 75,000 new jobs [2] - The Labor Department's recent downward revision of previous employment figures raises concerns about potential job losses, which could trigger recession narratives if the upcoming data shows significant declines [2] Group 2 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on September 11, with core inflation having exceeded expectations for three consecutive months; any further increase could eliminate the current 90% probability of interest rate cuts in the swap market [2] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on September 17 will be crucial, especially if the dot plot indicates only one rate cut for the year, which could lead to a reevaluation of the current high valuation levels [2] - The "triple witching" event on September 19 will see a large volume of options expire, potentially triggering volatility due to accumulated leveraged positions in a low-volatility environment [3] Group 3 - Historical data shows that September has been a challenging month for the S&P 500, with an average decline of 0.7% over the past 30 years, and four out of the last five years have seen losses [3] - Fundstrat's Tom Lee has issued a rare warning that the market may initially drop by 5% to 10% before rebounding to 6800 points, indicating a potential short-term bearish trend [3] - Despite the challenges, the U.S. economy has shown resilience, with corporate earnings consistently exceeding expectations, suggesting that if economic data only shows moderate slowing, there could be a significant influx of cash into the market, pushing indices higher by year-end [3]

Group 1 - Capital is increasingly seeking safety and profitability, with historical trends showing that during global turmoil, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, capital flows rapidly to perceived safe havens like the US [1][3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to end its interest rate hike cycle and shift towards rate cuts, which may lead to a decline in returns on US dollar assets, prompting capital to seek undervalued opportunities in other markets, particularly in China [3][10] - The Chinese stock market is currently experiencing significant foreign capital inflows, with net inflows reaching $27 billion in July and $426 million in August, indicating a growing interest from international investors [10][16] Group 2 - The upcoming military parade in China is seen as a demonstration of national stability and security, which is attractive to international capital amid global uncertainties [6][19] - Goldman Sachs reported that hedge funds are rapidly increasing their investments in Chinese stocks, with the allocation to China by global mutual funds rising to 6.6%, suggesting room for further growth [8][10] - The valuation of Chinese assets is appealing compared to US assets, with the price-to-earnings ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index at 11, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 24, indicating a potential investment opportunity [14][16] Group 3 - The stability of the Chinese yuan around 7.18 and the government's proactive measures to support the stock market are contributing to China's perception as a "safe haven" for capital [16] - The geopolitical landscape is influencing capital flows, with Japan's diplomatic efforts to undermine China's military display being largely ignored by Southeast Asian nations, highlighting China's growing influence [17][19] - The shift in capital preferences is evident as investors reassess their strategies in light of declining returns on US assets and the relative stability and growth potential in China [19]

Group 1 - The international gold market is currently experiencing a short-term bearish trend, with gold trading around $3412.84 per ounce, reflecting a slight decline of 0.12% [1] - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to a combination of a weak dollar, rising interest rate cut expectations, and political instability, which are expected to continue supporting gold prices in the short term [2] - The successful breakthrough of the $3400 resistance level has opened an upward channel for gold prices, indicating potential for further gains [2][3] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market is also performing well, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching new closing highs, driven by strong performance in the artificial intelligence sector [2] - Investors are adopting a dual strategy of capitalizing on stock market gains while using gold as a hedge against potential risks, reflecting a new normal in market behavior [2] - Upcoming economic indicators, such as the PCE inflation data and employment reports, are critical and may trigger significant shifts in market sentiment [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight market trends of the domestic and international futures, important macro - economic news, the operational conditions of various industries, and the performance of the financial market. It includes information on price fluctuations of various commodities, corporate production and sales data, and policy - related news, which helps investors understand the current market situation and potential investment opportunities [3][4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Market Trends - Domestic futures: SC crude oil and cotton rose over 1%, glass rose nearly 1%, while alumina, LPG, etc. fell over 1% [3] - International precious metals: COMEX gold futures rose 0.82%, COMEX silver futures rose 1.27% [4] - International crude oil: US oil rose 0.27%, Brent crude rose 0.31% [5] - London base metals: All rose, with LME nickel rising 1.12%, etc. [5] - International agricultural products: Prices were mixed, with US soybeans rising 0.07%, etc. [7] Important Information Macro Information - Real - estate policy: The central government promotes high - quality urban development, focusing on real - estate construction and renovation [9] - International trade: China - Canada and China - US economic and trade exchanges are ongoing, and the EU proposes to cancel some US tariffs [9][13] - Legal disputes: Cook sues Trump, and the outcome of the case is yet to be determined [10] - Monetary policy: Fed Governor Waller supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September [11] - Geopolitical situation: Israel attacks Yemen, and the UK, France, and Germany restart sanctions on Iran [17][16] Energy and Chemical Futures - Glass: National float glass inventory decreased, and some photovoltaic glass companies may raise prices [19][22] - Oil: Russia will increase oil exports to India, and Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased [19] - Chemicals: Anti - dumping duties on imported phenol from multiple countries will continue for 5 years, and domestic soda ash inventory decreased [21] - Natural gas: US natural gas inventory increased compared to the previous week [22] Metal Futures - South32: Driven by price increases and output growth, annual profit soared 5%, and alumina and aluminum output are expected to increase [25] - Harmony Gold: 2026 fiscal - year gold production target is 140 - 150 million ounces, and 2025 fiscal - year net profit increased by 26% [27] Black - Series Futures - Rebar: Output increased, factory inventory decreased, social inventory increased for the seventh consecutive week, and apparent demand increased for the second consecutive week [29] - Casting pig iron: Some blast furnaces in Shandong and Henan are shut down for maintenance, affecting output [29] - Coking: The average national profit per ton of coke is 55 yuan/ton, with different profitability in different regions [29] Agricultural Product Futures - Feed: In July, national industrial feed output increased, and product prices decreased year - on - year [31] - Soybeans: Argentina's soybean sales volume increased, and the US 2025/2026 soybean net sales increased [33][37] - Sugar: The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports increased, and the waiting sugar volume decreased [34] - Cotton: India's cotton planting area decreased by 3% [34] - Corn: The US 2025/2026 corn net sales decreased compared to the previous week [37] Financial Market Finance - A - shares: The three major indexes rebounded in a "V - shape", with a daily trading volume of 3 trillion yuan. M&A activities increased, and brokerages actively conducted research [39][41] - Hong Kong stocks: The Hang Seng Index fell 0.81%, with semiconductor stocks rising and pharmaceutical stocks falling [39] - Company performance: Ideal Auto's Q2 revenue and profit increased, and well - known fund managers adjusted their positions [42][41] Industry - Data industry: The National Data Bureau is deploying data industry cluster construction pilots [43] - Logistics: From January to July, the national social logistics volume increased by 5.2% year - on - year [44] - AI: The Shanghai AI Security Working Committee was established [45] - Automobile: European new - car sales increased in July, and Tesla's market share declined [46] Overseas - US economy: Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 3.3%, and the eurozone economic sentiment index declined [47][48] - EU - US trade: The EU proposes to cancel some US tariffs, and the US will reduce tariffs on EU cars [50] - South Korea: The central bank maintains the benchmark interest rate and raises economic growth and inflation expectations [50] International Stock Markets - US stocks: The three major indexes rose slightly, with the Dow and S&P 500 hitting new closing highs [51] - European stocks: Closed mixed, affected by Nvidia's earnings and French political uncertainty [51] - Company performance: Didi's Q2 GTV and profit increased, and Berkshire Hathaway increased its holdings in Japanese companies [52][54] Commodities - Precious metals: International precious - metal futures rose, driven by safe - haven demand [55] - Crude oil: International oil prices rose slightly, supported by a larger - than - expected decline in US crude - oil inventory [55] - Base metals: London base metals rose, but copper price increase was limited [55] - Cotton: India extends the exemption period for cotton import tariffs [56] Bonds - A - share bonds: Bond yields generally rose, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations [58] - Government bonds: China issued new local government bonds in July, and Japan's 2 - year government - bond auction demand was at a record low [58] - US bonds: Yields were mixed, affected by multiple factors [59] Foreign Exchange - RMB: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the central bank renewed the currency - swap agreement with New Zealand [60][61] - US dollar: The US dollar index fell, and non - US currencies mostly rose [63] Upcoming Events and Data Releases - Data: Multiple countries will release economic data such as GDP, CPI, and unemployment rate [65] - Events: There are news conferences, corporate earnings announcements, and various industry summits [67]