Core Insights - The report highlights that the capital expenditure of non-financial A-share listed companies has continued to decline, with a negative growth trend since the end of 2022, indicating a weakened investment capacity and willingness among companies [5][6] - It is recommended to focus on sectors with sufficient supply clearance, as any signs of demand recovery could lead to accelerated improvement in supply-demand structure, stabilizing prices and enhancing capacity utilization and profitability [6][9] Supply Clearance Areas - Sectors with significant supply clearance include: - Resource products benefiting from anti-involution: chemicals (coal chemicals, polyurethane, non-metallic materials), building materials (cement products, waterproof materials), non-ferrous metals (copper, lithium), coke, iron ore, and oil & gas refining [4][9] - Consumer goods: small consumer products (dairy, pet food, pig farming, snacks, branded cosmetics), real estate chain (home textiles, home furnishings, personal care small appliances, lighting equipment), and medical beauty consumables [4][9] - Traditional equipment manufacturing: motorcycles, distribution equipment, inverters, commercial cargo vehicles, printing and packaging machinery, instrumentation, and power transmission and transformation equipment [4][9] - Certain electronic hardware: integrated circuit manufacturing, analog chip design, optical components, semiconductor materials, LEDs, and branded consumer electronics [4][9] - Pharmaceuticals: vaccines, traditional Chinese medicine, and raw pharmaceutical materials [4][9] - New energy industry chain: silicon materials, batteries, photovoltaic processing equipment, wind power generation, as well as gold, gas, and dyeing [4][9] Inventory Depletion and Profitability - Industries experiencing accelerated inventory depletion and marginal improvement in gross margins are expected to have high earnings elasticity and certainty with further demand recovery, including chlor-alkali, fluorochemicals, special steel, modified plastics, and membrane materials [4][6] - Industries with continued supply clearance and declining inventory levels, along with falling gross margins, are likely to see a profitability turning point, such as chemicals (soda ash, organic silicon, polyurethane), coking coal, thermal coal, and glass manufacturing [4][6] Recommendations - Focus on sectors with accelerated supply clearance and low inventory, such as polyurethane, vaccines, dairy products, residential development, non-metallic materials, printing and packaging machinery, instrumentation, raw pharmaceuticals, and integrated circuit manufacturing [4][6] - Attention should also be given to sectors with ongoing contraction in supply and improving gross margins, including branded cosmetics, plastic packaging, pre-processed foods, home textiles, chlor-alkali, coke, special steel, pesticides, cement manufacturing, membrane materials, coatings, abrasives, photovoltaic processing equipment, silicon materials, inverters, medical consumables, and traditional Chinese medicine [4][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Overall, the finished steel products are supported by raw material costs at the lower end but constrained by inventory at the upper end, expected to trade in a range. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking speed of steel and downstream consumption, with the risk of negative feedback due to the decline in the profitability rate of steel enterprises [3]. - Iron ore prices will continue to be weak in the short term. Macroeconomic data in the US and China are weakening, and overseas risk events are reducing market drivers. Fundamentally, supply remains high, port inventories are accumulating, and demand is weak [20]. - Recently, downstream coke and steel mills have been replenishing stocks, and the inventory structure of coking coal has improved. However, steel mill profits are damaged, and the demand for coking coal and coke has peaked seasonally. In the medium - to - long term, policies restricting coking coal supply and winter storage may affect prices [30]. - Ferroalloys are expected to trade in a range as they return to the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand after the macro - sentiment fades, but are supported by costs [45]. - Soda ash prices are restricted by high inventory but supported by costs. There is a weakening expectation for its rigid demand due to the cold - repair expectation of glass [54]. - Glass sales have weakened recently, and the spot market is under pressure. There is a small expected decline in supply. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but there is cost support and policy expectation in the long - term [80]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3025 yuan/ton, down from 3044 yuan/ton on November 10. The closing price of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3242 yuan/ton, down from 3252 yuan/ton on November 10 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3228 yuan/ton, up from 3223 yuan/ton on November 10. The aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton, down from 3270 yuan/ton on November 10 [8][10]. - **Spreads**: On November 11, 2025, the 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4, the same as on November 10; the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 2, also the same as on November 10 [17]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the closing price of 01 contract was 763 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan from November 10 and 12.5 yuan from November 4 [21]. - **Fundamentals**: As of November 7, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 234.22 tons, down 2.14 tons week - on - week and 7.32 tons month - on - month. The 45 - port inventory was 14898.83 tons, up 356.35 tons week - on - week and 874.33 tons month - on - month [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1238 yuan/ton, unchanged from November 10. The coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1680 yuan/ton, unchanged from November 10 [34]. - **Market Situation**: Recently, downstream coke and steel mills have replenished stocks, and the inventory structure of coking coal has improved. However, steel mill profits are damaged, and the demand for coking coal and coke has peaked seasonally [30]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On November 11, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 42 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan from November 10. The silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5280 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from November 10 [45]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On November 11, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 206 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan from November 10. The silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5560 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from November 10 [47]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract was 1292 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from November 10; the 09 contract was 1356 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from November 10; the 01 contract was 1215 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from November 10 [55]. - **Market Situation**: Soda ash prices are restricted by high inventory but supported by costs. There is a weakening expectation for its rigid demand due to the cold - repair expectation of glass [54]. Glass - **Futures Prices**: On November 11, 2025, the glass 05 contract was 1184 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan from November 10; the 09 contract was 1261 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan from November 10; the 01 contract was 1053 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from November 10 [81]. - **Market Situation**: Glass sales have weakened recently, and the spot market is under pressure. There is a small expected decline in supply. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but there is cost support and policy expectation in the long - term [80].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **螺纹钢**: The main contract price of rebar showed a weak and volatile trend, with a daily decline of 0.33%, and both trading volume and open interest remained stable. In the current situation, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved under the situation of weak supply and demand. The pressure of inventory reduction is relatively large, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is that the cost still provides support. In the short - term, the price will continue to oscillate and seek the bottom. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - **热轧卷板**: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated, with a daily increase of 0.03%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. At present, the industrial contradictions of hot - rolled coil remain unresolved, inventory has increased again, and prices continue to be under pressure. However, the cost side still provides support. In the short - term, the price will continue to show a weak and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - **铁矿石**: The main contract price of iron ore oscillated, with a daily increase of 0.20%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the demand for iron ore is weakening, while the supply remains at a high level. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak. Under the dominance of the real - world logic, the iron ore price will continue to be under pressure and show a weak operation trend. Attention should be paid to the performance of the steel market [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Energy Supply for Heating Season**: The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply for the 2025 - 2026 heating season, requiring all regions and relevant enterprises to ensure stable energy production and supply, and improve the performance of medium - and long - term energy contracts, especially focusing on coal supply for northern heating areas [7]. - **New Energy Vehicle Sales**: From January to October 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 27.692 million and 27.687 million vehicles respectively, with a year - on - year increase of over 10%. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 13.015 million and 12.943 million vehicles respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 33.1% and 32.7% respectively. In October, the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 51.6% of the total vehicle sales for the first time [8]. - **Anti - Dumping Ruling**: On November 10, 2025, Thailand's anti - dumping and counter - subsidy sub - committee decided to continue to impose a 5 - year anti - dumping duty on cold - rolled stainless steel products from China. The anti - dumping duty for Ningbo Baoxin Stainless Steel Co., Ltd. is 8.5%, and for other Chinese producers/ exporters is 33.32%. Some producers/ exporters are exempted from the duty [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The national average price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) was 3,228 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the national average price of hot - rolled coil (4.75mm) was 3,308 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; the price of Tangshan billet (Q235) was 2,940 yuan/ton, unchanged; and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was 2,140 yuan/ton, unchanged [10]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 773 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 798 yuan/ton, unchanged. The sea freight from Australia was 10.36 yuan/ton, down 0.09 yuan/ton, and from Brazil was 23.41 yuan/ton, down 0.12 yuan/ton. The SGX swap (current month) was 103.29, up 0.70, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 103.00, up 0.95 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change (%) | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3,025 | - 0.33 | 753,110 | - 296,403 | 1,923,701 | - 32 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | 3,242 | 0.03 | 324,368 | - 50,997 | 1,326,892 | - 19,179 | | Iron Ore | 763.0 | 0.20 | 262,391 | - 65,052 | 530,352 | - 11,250 | 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: The report provides charts on the weekly changes and total inventory (including steel mills and social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil, which can be used to analyze the inventory trends of steel products [16][17][19]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts on the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines are provided, which are helpful for analyzing the supply and demand situation of iron ore [21][22][27]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts on the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, and the operating rate of independent electric furnaces are provided, which can be used to understand the production and operation status of steel mills [29][30][31]. 3.5后市研判 - **Rebar**: Both supply and demand are weakening. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 4.05 tons, and demand decreased by 13.66 tons. The fundamentals have not improved, and inventory reduction pressure is large. Although the cost provides support, the price will continue to oscillate and seek the bottom in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the production of steel mills [38]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand are weakening. The weekly output decreased by 5.40 tons, and demand decreased by 17.59 tons. Industrial contradictions remain unresolved, inventory has increased again, and prices are under pressure. The cost provides support, and the price will continue to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the implementation of steel mill production restrictions [38]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and inventory has increased significantly. Ore demand continues to decline, while supply remains at a high level. The price will continue to be under pressure and show a weak trend. Attention should be paid to the performance of the steel market [39].

最近有个大消息，可能不少老铁都听说了，澳大利亚最大的铁矿企业BHP，终于低头接受用人民币结算了。这事儿听起来可能就是个商业新闻，但里头藏着 咱们国家二十年的心酸和奋斗。 更妙的是，咱们的能源结构也在变革。光伏、风电大发展让电价越来越便宜，电炉炼钢技术得以普及。这种技术不用铁矿石，直接消化废钢就行。现在咱们 每年回收4亿吨废钢，对海外铁矿的依赖自然就下降了。 回想二十年前，咱们在铁矿石市场上真是受尽了气。中国作为全球最大的铁矿石买家，每年要买下全世界七成以上的海运铁矿石，澳大利亚八成的矿都指望 我们消化。 照理说，这么大个主顾，总该有点话语权吧？可现实恰恰相反。 那时候咱们几百家钢厂各自为战，人家矿商挨个谈价，把价格越抬越高。一吨开采成本不到20美元的铁矿，卖给我们要一百多美元，最疯狂时甚至喊到两百 多。 而咱们钢厂辛辛苦苦炼钢，利润率还不到1%，真是赚着卖白菜的钱，操着卖白粉的心。 更让人憋屈的是定价权。所谓国际普氏指数，表面上是公平报价，实际上就是华尔街那帮资本在操控。他们既是报价方，又是矿企股东，这不就是既当裁判 又当运动员吗？ 不过，咱们中国人向来有耐心。从2022年开始，棋局悄悄发生了变化。国家整合成 ...

11月11日，大中矿业盘中下跌2.17%，截至09:35，报23.88元/股，成交3.33亿元，换手率1.08%，总市值 360.12亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出1820.43万元，特大单买入1172.93万元，占比3.52%，卖出2928.96万 元，占比8.79%；大单买入3480.68万元，占比10.44%，卖出3545.08万元，占比10.64%。 大中矿业今年以来股价涨182.14%，近5个交易日涨24.96%，近20日涨85.55%，近60日涨94.15%。 今年以来大中矿业已经3次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为11月7日。 资料显示，大中矿业股份有限公司位于内蒙古自治区包头市黄河大街55号，成立日期1999年10月29日， 上市日期2021年5月10日，公司主营业务涉及铁矿石采选、铁精粉和球团的生产销售以及机制砂石的加 工销售。主营业务收入构成为：铁精粉71.07%，球团20.48%，硫酸4.58%，砂石2.73%，其他0.81%，锌 精粉0.32%，锂矿石0.02%。 大中矿业所属申万行业为：钢铁-冶钢原料-铁矿石。所属概念板块包括：盾构机、锂电池、增持回购、 中盘、创投等。 截至9 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with risks still existing in hot - rolled coil inventory, and attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm. Future steel consumption may gradually recover, and although short - term demand is weak, there may be an inflection point with policy implementation and macro - environment changes [2] - For iron ore, affected by environmental protection restrictions and declining steel mill profits, iron ore demand continues to weaken, and inventory pressure remains. In the short term, ore prices will run weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 750 - 760 yuan/ton [5] - Regarding the black sector, it is considered that short - term "negative feedback" trading is a temporary shock, and it may be more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities after corrections. The subsequent price increase depends on whether stimulus policies are introduced and their intensity [9][10] - For manganese silicon, pay attention to the situation of manganese ore. If the black sector strengthens, it may be driven by manganese ore. For silicon iron, its operability is relatively low [10] - For industrial silicon, supply and demand are weak, and prices are expected to consolidate, waiting for new drivers [13][14] - For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but short - term de - stocking may be limited. Pay attention to the progress of the platform company [16] - For glass, the market lacks fundamental support, and prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [19] - For soda ash, the market has both long and short factors, and prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term [21] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3044 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.329%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 9143 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 37153 lots. In the spot market, the Tianjin and Shanghai aggregated prices remained unchanged [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3252 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.215%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 894 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 19517 lots. The Shanghai aggregated price increased by 10 yuan/ton, while the Lecong aggregated price remained unchanged [1] Strategy Views - Rebar supply and demand both declined, inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance overall. Hot - rolled coil demand declined significantly, with inventory accumulating against the season. Steel demand has entered the off - season, and attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm. Future demand may recover gradually [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 765.00 yuan/ton, up 0.59% (+4.50). The positions decreased by 17806 lots to 54.16 million lots. The weighted positions were 96.85 million lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 775 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 58.52 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.11% [4] Strategy Views - Supply: Overseas iron ore shipments continued to decline, with Vale and Rio Tinto contributing to the reduction. Non - mainstream country shipments increased, and the near - end arrival volume decreased. Demand: The average daily hot metal output decreased by 2.14 tons to 234.22 tons. Environmental protection restrictions in Hebei had a significant impact, and many steel mills increased maintenance. Inventory: Port inventory increased, and steel mill inventory also rose. In general, the fundamentals are weak, and short - term prices will run weakly [5] Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Information - On November 10, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed up 1.04% at 5820 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 70 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of silicon iron (SF601) closed up 1.12% at 5588 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, with a premium of 12 yuan/ton over the futures. Manganese silicon is in the 5600 - 6000 yuan/ton range, and silicon iron is in the 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton range [7][8] Strategy Views - The market is currently in a "negative feedback" trading situation, but it is considered a temporary shock. It may be more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities after corrections. Manganese silicon lacks a clear main contradiction, and attention should be paid to the manganese ore situation. Silicon iron has no obvious supply - demand contradiction and follows the cost of electricity, with low operability [9][10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 9290 yuan/ton, up 0.76% (+70). The weighted positions increased by 4310 lots to 440038 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China increased by 50 yuan/ton [12] - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 53720 yuan/ton, up 0.95% (+505). The weighted positions decreased by 6367 lots to 222392 lots. The spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged [15] Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, production increased in October, and supply pressure may ease in November. Demand is weak, and prices are expected to consolidate [13][14] - For polysilicon, production will decline in November and December, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally. Pay attention to the progress of the platform company [16] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1069 yuan/ton, down 2.02% (-22). The Huabei large - plate price decreased by 20 yuan, and the Huazhong price remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 265.40 million cases (-4.03%). The top 20 long - position holders increased positions by 107545 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased positions by 125534 lots [18] - The soda ash main contract closed at 1226 yuan/ton, up 1.32% (+16). The Shahe heavy - alkali price increased by 16 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 1.22 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased positions by 13469 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased positions by 26458 lots [20] Strategy Views - The glass market lacks fundamental support, and prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [19] - The soda ash market has both long and short factors, and prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term [21]

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing structural transformation of the global monetary system, emphasizing the resurgence of gold as a significant asset in the context of de-dollarization and geopolitical shifts [5][21][22]. Group 1: Geopolitical Transitions and Gold's Re-Monetisation - The process of gold's re-monetisation is in its early stages, driven by geopolitical changes and the reconfiguration of trade alliances, particularly among BRICS nations [6][27]. - The de-dollarization of energy markets is a strategic starting point, as energy is foundational to the global economy, influencing all other markets [7][25]. - Recent developments, such as BHP's acceptance of yuan for 30% of its iron ore sales, signify a notable shift away from the dollar in global commodity transactions [7][27]. Group 2: Erosion of the Dollar's Reserve Status - The relative value of the US dollar in international trade is declining, which threatens its long-standing status as the exclusive reserve currency [8][28]. - As countries require fewer dollars for commodity purchases, their reserves in dollars and US Treasuries are expected to decrease, indicating a long-term trend of de-dollarization [9][28]. Group 3: Gold as a Strategic and Geopolitical Hedge - Gold is re-emerging as a crucial component of international trade settlements and reserve systems, reflecting a shift back to a multi-currency market [10][31]. - The concerns over currency weaponization and the safety of reserve assets have led countries to seek alternatives to the dollar, with gold being a preferred choice due to its geopolitical neutrality [10][32]. Group 4: Structural Optimism in the Gold Market - Many financial institutions are optimistic about gold's long-term prospects, recognizing it as part of a changing global monetary order rather than merely a cyclical safe-haven asset [11][33]. - The recognition of de-dollarization by major institutions indicates a structural shift that has been underway for years, although broader understanding of its implications for gold may take time to develop [11][33]. Group 5: Company Overview - Barton Gold - Barton Gold Holdings Ltd (ASX: BGD) is a gold development company in South Australia, with over 2.2 million ounces of gold and 3.1 million ounces of silver resources [12][34]. - The company is advancing its Central Gawler Mill project and aims to achieve first production by late 2026, targeting an annual output of 150,000 to 200,000 ounces of gold [12][34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the steel industry, the steel market shows that mills continue to cut production, hot metal declines, apparent demand drops, and inventory reduction slows. The cost support of iron elements is weak, while that of carbon elements is strong. The steel price is unlikely to fall significantly, and the long - coking coal and short - hot rolled coil arbitrage can be held. The unilateral prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil may test previous lows [2]. - For the iron ore industry, the iron ore futures are in a weak downward trend. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. Due to the weak steel price, the profitability of mills is declining, which will force the iron ore market to be weak. It is recommended to short iron ore futures on rallies and conduct long - coking coal and short - iron ore arbitrage [4][6]. - For the coke industry, the coke futures fluctuated downward last week. The supply is tight, and the cost support is strong. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 on dips and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [7]. - For the coking coal industry, the coking coal futures also showed a downward trend last week. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 on dips and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China are 3190 yuan/ton, 3200 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, +10, and - 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. Rebar contract prices for 05, 10, and 01 are 3095 yuan/ton, 3132 yuan/ton, and 3034 yuan/ton respectively, all showing declines [2]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East, North, and South China are 3260 yuan/ton, 3190 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively, all down 10 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil contract prices for 05, 10, and 01 are 3254 yuan/ton, 3276 yuan/ton, and 3245 yuan/ton respectively, all down 11 yuan/ton [2]. Cost and Profit - The billet price is 2940 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the slab price is 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East, North, and South China are all down [2]. Supply - The daily average hot metal output is 234.2 tons, down 2.1 tons (-0.9%); the output of five major steel products is 856.7 tons, down 18.5 tons (-2.1%); the rebar output is 208.5 tons, down 4.1 tons (-1.9%); the hot - rolled coil output is 318.2 tons, down 5.4 tons (-1.7%) [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1503.6 tons, down 10.2 tons (-0.7%); the rebar inventory is 592.5 tons, down 10 tons (-1.7%); the hot - rolled coil inventory is 410.5 tons, up 3.9 tons (0.9%) [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume is 8.7 tons, down 2.3 tons (-21%); the apparent demand of five major steel products is 866.9 tons, down 49.5 tons (-5.4%); the apparent demand of rebar is 218.5 tons, down 13.7 tons (-5.9%); the apparent demand of hot - rolled coil is 314.3 tons, down 17.6 tons (-5.3%) [2]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore powders all show declines, and the basis of the 01 contract has different changes. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads also have corresponding changes [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of iron ore at Rizhao Port and price indexes such as the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and Platts 62% Fe all decline [4]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports is 3218.4 tons, up 1189.3 tons (58.6%); the global weekly shipping volume is 3213.8 tons, down 174.6 tons (-5.2%); the national monthly import volume is 11632.6 tons, up 1111.6 tons (10.6%) [4]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 mills is 234.2 tons, down 2.1 tons (-0.9%); the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports is 320.9 tons, down 15.5 tons (-4.6%); the national monthly pig iron output is 6604.6 tons, down 374.7 tons (-5.4%); the national monthly crude steel output is 7349.0 tons, down 387.8 tons (-5.0%) [4]. Inventory Changes - The port inventory at 45 ports is 14898.83 tons, up 184.8 tons (1.3%); the imported iron ore inventory of 247 mills is 6600.6 tons, up 160.1 tons (1.8%); the inventory available days of 64 mills is 21 days, unchanged [4]. Coke Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) are unchanged. The coke 01 and 05 contracts decline, and the coking profit is down [7]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.6 tons, down 1.0 ton (-1.5%); the daily average output of 247 mills is 46.1 tons, down 0.1 ton (-0.34%) [7]. Demand - The hot metal output of 247 mills is 234.2 tons, down 2.1 tons (-0.94%) [7]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory is 887.1 tons, down 13 tons (-1.4%); the coke inventories of coking plants, mills, and ports all decline [7]. Supply - demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap is -3.7 tons, down 0.1 ton (-2.2%) [7]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) are unchanged, while the prices of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) and coking coal 01 and 05 contracts decline. The sample coal mine profit is up [7]. Supply - The raw coal output is 848.4 tons, down 3.4 tons (-0.4%); the clean coal output is 433.0 tons, down 2.0 tons (-0.5%) [7]. Demand - The demand for coking coal is mainly reflected in the coking production, with the daily average output of all - sample coking plants and 247 mills showing declines [7]. Inventory Changes - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines is 80.4 tons, down 0.8 tons (-0.9%); the coking coal inventories of coking plants and ports increase, while those of mills decrease [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are unlikely to drop significantly due to tight carbon element supply and reasonable valuation. Single - side trading of rebar and hot - rolled coils may test previous lows, with rebar focusing on the 2900 - 3000 range support and hot - rolled coils on around 3200 support. The strategy of long coking coal and short hot - rolled coils arbitrage can be continued [2]. Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore futures are in a weak downward trend. With steel prices weakening and steel mill profitability declining, iron ore demand will be weak. The overall production of the Simandou project is progressing faster than expected, and it is expected to complete the first shipment of iron ore to the port in October. The strategy is to short iron ore futures on rallies and recommend long coking coal and short iron ore arbitrage [4][6]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures oscillated and declined last week. Although the third - round price increase was implemented and the fourth - round is expected to be implemented, coke production decreased due to losses, and demand was affected by environmental restrictions and weak steel prices. The strategy is to go long on coke 2601 contracts on dips in the 1700 - 1850 range and long coking coal and short coke for arbitrage. Coking coal futures also oscillated and declined. The spot market was strong, but there were concerns about high prices. The strategy is to go long on coking coal 2601 contracts on dips in the 1240 - 1350 range and long coking coal and short coke for arbitrage [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices showed different changes. For example, rebar spot prices in North China increased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton. Rebar 05 contract price decreased by 7 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East and South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil 05 contract price decreased by 11 yuan/ton. Steel billet price increased by 10 yuan/ton, and plate billet price remained unchanged. Profits of various steel products decreased [2]. Supply - Daily average hot metal output decreased by 2.1 to 234.2 (a decrease of 0.9%), five - major steel product output decreased by 18.5 to 856.7 (a decrease of 2.1%), rebar output decreased by 4.1 to 208.5 (a decrease of 1.9%), and hot - rolled coil output decreased by 5.4 to 318.2 (a decrease of 1.7%) [2]. Inventory - Five - major steel product inventory decreased by 10.2 to 1503.6 (a decrease of 0.7%), rebar inventory decreased by 10.0 to 592.5 (a decrease of 1.7%), and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 3.9 to 410.5 (an increase of 0.9%) [2]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume decreased by 2.3 to 8.7 (a decrease of 21.0%), five - major steel product apparent demand decreased by 49.5 to 866.9 (a decrease of 5.4%), rebar apparent demand decreased by 13.7 to 218.5 (a decrease of 5.9%), and hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 17.6 to 314.3 (a decrease of 5.3%) [2]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - Iron ore warehouse receipt costs of various varieties decreased, such as the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased by 7.7 to 836.3 (a decrease of 0.9%). 01 contract basis of some varieties changed, and spreads between different contracts also changed, like the 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 to 21.5 (an increase of 2.4%) [4]. Supply - 45 - port weekly arrivals increased by 1189.3 to 3218.4 (an increase of 58.6%), global weekly shipments decreased by 174.6 to 3213.8 (a decrease of 5.2%), and the national monthly import volume increased by 1111.6 to 11632.6 (an increase of 10.6%) [4]. Demand - 247 steel mills' daily average hot metal output decreased by 2.1 to 234.2 (a decrease of 0.9%), 45 - port daily average dispatch volume decreased by 15.5 to 320.9 (a decrease of 4.6%), national monthly pig iron output decreased by 374.7 to 6604.6 (a decrease of 5.4%), and national monthly crude steel output decreased by 387.8 to 7349.0 (a decrease of 5.0%) [4]. Inventory - 45 - port inventory increased by 184.8 to 14898.83 (an increase of 1.3%), 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory increased by 160.1 to 6600.6 (an increase of 1.8%), and 64 steel mills' inventory available days remained unchanged at 21.0 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices decreased. For example, coke 01 contract price decreased by 20 to 1757 (a decrease of 1.14%), and coking coal 01 contract price decreased by 21 to 1270 (a decrease of 1.6%). Some spot prices remained unchanged, while some coking coal prices decreased slightly, like Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) price decreased by 11 to 1362 (a decrease of 0.8%) [7]. Supply - Coke production decreased, with the daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreasing by 1.0 to 63.6 (a decrease of 1.5%) and 247 steel mills' daily average output decreasing by 0.1 to 46.1 (a decrease of 0.34%). Coking coal production also decreased slightly, with raw coal output decreasing by 3.4 to 848.4 (a decrease of 0.4%) and clean coal output decreasing by 2.0 to 433.0 (a decrease of 0.5%) [7]. Demand - 247 steel mills' hot metal output decreased by 2.1 to 234.2 (a decrease of 0.94%), and coke demand decreased as a result [7]. Inventory - Coke total inventory decreased by 13.0 to 887.1 (a decrease of 1.4%), with inventories in coking plants, steel mills, and ports all decreasing. Coking coal inventory increased in some places and decreased in others. For example, Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory decreased by 0.8 to 80.4 (a decrease of 0.9%), while all - sample coking plants' coking coal inventory increased by 17.5 to 1070.0 (an increase of 1.7%) [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel sector, the apparent demand for rebar decreased week - on - week, rebar production declined, and inventory continued to fall. Hot - rolled coil inventory has far exceeded the same - period level after a significant increase and continued to rise this week. Coke and coking coal prices showed signs of weakness, and iron ore prices hit a recent low. Future steel mills are expected to cut production, which may trigger a negative feedback cycle. [2] - For the iron ore sector, the sample steel mills' hot - metal production continued to decline week - on - week, and it is expected to continue to fall this week. With the decline in steel mills' profits and the end of the consumption peak season, steel mills will continue to cut production, suppressing raw material prices. The global iron ore shipment has declined from its high, and the port inventory increase during the consumption peak season and slow inventory depletion of steel products are suppressing the market sentiment. The futures price faces a correction pressure. [4] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and demand**: Rebar's apparent demand, production, and inventory all decreased. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased. Coke and coking coal supported costs, but steel mills' profit decline may lead to production cuts. [2] - **Technical analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have fallen below the 10 - day moving average and are currently supported by the lower Bollinger Band. [2] - **Operation suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, do not chase up or sell down, and wait patiently to go long at low prices after stabilization for mid - term trading. Do not short when the price is low. [2] - **Related data**: Include prices, basis, spreads, production, inventory, and trading volume data. For example, the rebar main contract closing price was 3034 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day and 2.32% from last week. [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Demand**: The sample steel mills' hot - metal production decreased, and steel mills will continue to cut production, suppressing iron ore prices. [4] - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipment declined from its high, and it is expected that the arrival volume will decrease after some time. [4] - **Technical analysis**: The 01 - contract futures price has fallen below the middle Bollinger Band and the 10 - day moving average, hitting a three - month low, and is currently mainly supported by the lower Bollinger Band. [4] - **Operation suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and wait patiently to go long at low prices after price stabilization. [5] - **Related data**: Include prices, basis, spreads, shipment, arrival volume, inventory, and other data. For example, the DCE iron ore main contract settlement price was 760.5 yuan/dry ton, down 4.94% from last week. [5] 3. Industry News - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 14898.83 tons, a week - on - week increase of 356.35 tons. The average daily port clearance volume was 335.55 tons, an increase of 4.33 tons. [7] - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.38 percentage points. The average daily hot - metal output was 234.22 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.14 tons. [7] - The total urban inventory of steel was 933.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09 tons. [8]