Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: In the short - term, the market rotation is accelerating, hot - plate persistence is poor, and trading volume is falling before the Spring Festival. In the long - term, policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The economic recovery foundation is not solid, and there is still room for RRR and interest rate cuts. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds, and bond market trading is expected to be stable. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the suppression of the stock market, government bond supply, and inflation expectations, and the market is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: The market is in a cautious short - covering and position - rebuilding stage after a technical oversold. It is recommended to wait and see, with the Shanghai gold main contract in the range of 1050 - 1300 yuan/gram and Shanghai silver in the range of 22000 - 25000 yuan/kilogram [11]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate, with some having upward or downward trends based on supply - demand, policy, and cost factors [14][16][21]. - **Black Building Materials**: The black - building materials sector is in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors at play. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to track inventory changes, demand recovery, and policy adjustments [34]. - **Energy Chemicals**: Different energy - chemical products have different trends. For example, crude oil is recommended to take profits on rallies, and some products are affected by supply - demand, cost, and geopolitical factors [64][66]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, the short - term outlook for live pigs is pessimistic, while the long - term outlook for cotton is positive [87][102]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: The President of China had a phone call with the US President; a new satellite testing and launching technology plant was established; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to break through key technologies; the central bank focuses on credit market work [2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have corresponding basis annualized ratios [3]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips in the short - term [4]. - **Treasury Bonds** - **Market Information**: Contract prices changed on Wednesday; the central bank held a credit market meeting; the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 750 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 302.5 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to multiple factors [8]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose; the US ADP data indicated a slowdown in the labor market; the US Treasury's refinancing statement affected the bond market [9][10]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver [11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: Copper prices fluctuated, LME copper inventory increased, and domestic spot was at a discount [13]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly, with reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME copper [14]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices declined, and inventory and trading conditions changed [15]. - **Strategy**: If concerns about the US AI narrative ease, prices are expected to stabilize and rise, with reference price ranges [16]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: Zinc prices fluctuated, and inventory and basis data changed [17][18]. - **Strategy**: The price is following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute. The trading center may return to the industrial logic [18]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: Lead prices declined, and inventory and basis data changed [19]. - **Strategy**: The industry situation is weak, and the panic sentiment has eased to some extent [19]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and cost and supply - demand factors changed [20]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, with reference price ranges [21]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: Tin prices fluctuated, and supply, demand, and inventory factors changed [22]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Information**: The spot index rose, and the futures contract price declined [24]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see or take a small - position attempt, with a reference price range for the futures contract [25]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The index rose, and inventory and basis data changed [26][27]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range and key factors to watch [28]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [29]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a bullish view, with a reference price range [29]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The price rebounded, and inventory and trading volume data changed [30]. - **Strategy**: The price is supported in the short - term [31]. Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose slightly, and inventory and trading volume data changed [33]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to track multiple factors [34]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [35]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to steel mill restocking and iron - making rhythms [36][37]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Information**: Prices rose, and spot and basis data changed [38]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to market sentiment and high - volatility risks [40][42]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and inventory and trading volume data changed [43]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, with a reference price range [44]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and inventory and trading volume data changed [45]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly and stably in the short - term, with a reference price range [46]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon** - **Market Information**: Prices rose slightly, and spot and basis data changed [47]. - **Strategy**: The market is affected by overall sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [49][50]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [51]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to production cuts and downstream adjustments [54]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [55]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to meetings and spot transactions [56]. Energy Chemicals - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: The price is determined by funds, and there are different views on supply and demand [58]. - **Strategy**: Trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and consider a spread trading strategy [62]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: Futures prices rose [63]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [64]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: Spot and futures prices changed [65]. - **Strategy**: The price has priced in most geopolitical premiums, and there is pressure on the upside [66]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: Spot and futures prices changed [68]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies due to expected negative fundamentals [69]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: Prices rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [70]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has been repaired, and it is advisable to take profits gradually [70]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [71]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak. Pay attention to production capacity and start - up changes [72][73]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [74]. - **Strategy**: There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction in the medium - term, but there is a risk of rebound in the short - term [75]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [76]. - **Strategy**: It enters the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. Be cautious of processing - fee corrections in the short - term and look for long - entry opportunities after the Spring Festival [77]. - **Para - xylene** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [78]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. Look for long - entry opportunities following crude oil in the medium - term [79]. - **Polyethylene (PE)** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [80]. - **Strategy**: The oil price may have bottomed out. The price is supported by reduced inventory, but the demand is in the off - season [81]. - **Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [82]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure is relieved, and the price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year. Consider going long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [84]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs** - **Market Information**: Pig prices fell, and supply - demand factors changed [86]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the short - term, and pay attention to long - term support [87]. - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: Egg prices mostly fell, and supply - demand factors changed [88]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell in the near - term and long - term, with different logics [89]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: Futures prices fell slightly, and supply - demand data changed [90][91]. - **Strategy**: The short - term fundamentals are improving, and the price may be bottoming out [92]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: Futures prices fluctuated, and supply - demand data changed [93][94]. - **Strategy**: The price may have bottomed out. Wait for a pull - back to go long [94]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: The futures price rebounded slightly, and supply - demand data changed [95][98]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the northern hemisphere to finish the harvest in February. The domestic price may have limited downside, and it is advisable to wait and see [99]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: The futures price fluctuated, and supply - demand data changed [100][101]. - **Strategy**: It fluctuates widely in the short - term and may rise in the long - term. Look for low - entry opportunities before the Spring Festival [102].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating to the precious metals and new energy sectors, and "Neutral" or "Wait-and-See" ratings to most other sectors [1] Core Viewpoints - In the context of low interest rates and an "asset shortage", domestic market funds remain abundant, and the stock index is expected to maintain a long-term upward trend despite short-term volatility [1] - The bond market is favored by the "asset shortage" and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1] - Metal prices, including copper, aluminum, and nickel, are expected to stabilize and rebound after the release of macro risks, although they are subject to various supply and demand factors and policy uncertainties [1] - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policy. For example, palm oil is expected to be volatile and bullish, while cotton is in a situation of "support but no driver" [1] - Energy and chemical product prices are influenced by factors like crude oil prices, supply and demand fundamentals, and geopolitical situations. For instance, PTA and ethylene glycol prices have shown different trends due to various factors [1] Summary by Industry Macro Finance - Stock index: Expected to consolidate after a volume-reduced rebound, with a long-term upward trend intact due to abundant funds and economic recovery [1] - Bond futures: Favored by the "asset shortage" and weak economy, but short-term interest rate risks are highlighted [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: After a significant correction, prices are expected to stabilize and rebound as macro risks are released, with industry fundamentals providing support [1] - Aluminum: Prices dropped due to rising macro risk aversion but are expected to recover as the supply narrative continues and risks are released [1] - Alumina: Supply exceeds demand, and prices are under pressure but are expected to fluctuate around the cost line [1] - Zinc: The cost center is stabilizing, and prices are expected to rebound after a correction due to increased risk aversion [1] - Nickel: Short-term prices are expected to stabilize and rebound, but long-term high global inventories may still exert pressure. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1] - Stainless steel: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate, with support from the raw material end and repeated macro sentiment. Short-term trading is recommended [1] - Tin: Prices rebounded strongly after a mine accident and significant deleveraging, but high short-term volatility requires risk management [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and silver: Market sentiment is recovering, but strong US PMI data may slow the short-term upward momentum [1] - Platinum and palladium: Short-term support exists due to Trump's plan to establish a key mineral reserve and the EU's consideration of sanctions on Russian platinum exports [1] - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing, and the production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon declined in December [1] - Polysilicon: In the off-season for new energy vehicles, but storage demand is strong. Prices have risen significantly and may need to correct [1] - Lithium carbonate: Expectations are strong, but the spot market is weak, and the continuation of price increases lacks momentum [1] Black Metals - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Unilateral long positions are advised to exit, and cash-and-carry arbitrage positions can be considered due to factors such as high production and inventory [1] - Iron ore: There is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1] - Coke and coking coal: In the off-season, the focus is on capital sentiment, and opportunities to sell at high prices or establish cash-and-carry arbitrage positions are recommended [1] - Glass and soda ash: Weak current supply and demand are intertwined with strong expectations, and prices are under pressure in the medium term [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil: Expected to be volatile and bullish as the main consuming countries start purchasing and production areas may reduce production and inventory [1] - Cotton: Currently in a situation of "support but no driver", and future attention should be paid to factors such as policy, planting area, and seasonal demand [1] - Sugar: There is a consensus on short positions due to global oversupply and increased domestic production, but the cost provides support at lower prices [1] - Grains: Before the Spring Festival, the market is expected to correct as pre-holiday stocking ends and funds take profits [1] - Soybeans: Unilateral expectations are for a weakening trend due to factors such as expected rainfall in Argentina and sufficient Brazilian supply [1] - Pulp: It is advisable to wait and see due to supply disturbances and weakening demand after restocking [1] - Logs: The spot price is rising, and the futures price is expected to increase due to a decrease in arrivals and an increase in foreign quotes [1] - Hogs: The spot price is stabilizing, and demand is supported, but production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may ease. Prices are expected to correct in the short term [1] - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1] - Asphalt: Profits are high, and the demand for catch-up construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan may be falsified [1] - Shanghai rubber: The raw material cost provides support, but downstream demand weakens before the festival, and the futures-spot price difference has widened [1] - BR rubber: The cost of butadiene provides support, and there is an expectation of increased exports in the long term. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with an upward trend in the long term [1] - PTA: The PX market is strong, driving up the prices of chemical products. Domestic PTA production is increasing, and the negative feedback from polyester factory production cuts is limited [1] - Ethylene glycol: Overseas prices have rebounded, and the reduction in Middle East exports has boosted market confidence. Speculative demand has increased [1] - Styrene: The futures price has rebounded due to improved supply and demand fundamentals and reduced inventory pressure [1] - Methanol: Affected by the situation in Iran, imports are expected to decrease, but downstream negative feedback is significant, resulting in a mixed situation [1] - PE: The price has returned to a reasonable range, and demand is weak during the holiday after pre-holiday stocking [1] - PP: Supply pressure is high, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price has returned to a reasonable range [1] - PVC: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current fundamentals are poor, and there may be a rush to export [1] - LPG: The CP price is rising, and the demand side is short-term bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the futures price [1] Shipping - Container shipping on the European route: Freight rates have peaked and declined before the festival, and airlines are expected to raise prices after the off-season in March [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints There is no clear core viewpoint presented in the provided content. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore Spot Market - **Australian mainstream ores**: Newman powder is priced at 777, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of -8; PB powder is 781, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of -8; Mac powder is 775, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of -8; Jinbuba is 734, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of -8; Roy Hill powder is 768, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of -8 [1]. - **Brazilian mainstream ores**: Brazilian mixed ore is 820, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of 0; Brazilian coarse IOC6 is 756, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of 3; Brazilian coarse SSFG is 761, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of 3 [1]. - **Other ores**: Ukrainian fine powder is 859, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of -11; 61% Indian powder is 723, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of -8; Karara fine powder is 864, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of -11; 57% Indian powder is 601, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of -4; Atlas powder is 718, with a daily change of 2 and a weekly change of -1; Tangshan iron fine powder (domestic ore) is 969, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -7 [1]. 3.2 Iron Ore Futures Market - **DCE contracts**: i2701 is at 753.5, with a daily change of 4.5 and a weekly change of 1.0; i2605 is at 781.5, with a daily change of 4.0 and a weekly change of -1.5; i2609 is at 764.5, with a daily change of 4.5 and a weekly change of 0.0 [1]. - **SGX contracts**: FE01 is at 100.04, with a daily change of -0.67 and a weekly change of -5.66; FE05 is at 102.09, with a daily change of -0.90 and a weekly change of -1.61; FE09 is at 101.30, with a daily change of -0.67 and a weekly change of -1.15 [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently in the off - season of consumption, with low production and demand, and inventory rising from a low level. The central bank's cut in re - lending and rediscount rates boosts market confidence to some extent, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the future. Short - term declines are due to the weakening of market sentiment driven by the correction of the stock market, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals. For iron ore, the market is also in the off - season, with iron water production likely to decline seasonally, and supply is expected to fall due to seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere [2][4] - Technically, the steel futures price is oscillating within a narrow range of 100 yuan/ton, and may face a direction choice. The iron ore futures price is under pressure and has fallen near the 60 - day moving average and the lower Bollinger Band, and may have some support [2][4] Summary by Directory 1. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of rebar from 247 sample steel mills increased slightly, apparent demand decreased month - on - month, and total inventory continued to rise. The total output of the five major varieties increased slightly, inventory continued to increase, and apparent demand decreased month - on - month. The market is in the consumption off - season, with production and demand at a low level, and inventory rising from a low level [2] - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3099 yuan/ton, down 0.86% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3265 yuan/ton, down 0.73% from last week. Spot prices also showed a downward trend to varying degrees. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate was 78.68%, down 0.16 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output was 227.98 million tons, down 0.05% [3] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly and conduct medium - term trading. Do not chase up or kill down. Wait for the bottom signal to be confirmed later and then add positions on dips. Pay attention to whether there is a possibility of an effective downward breakthrough in the short term [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Demand**: The market is still in the consumption off - season. Molten iron production is likely to decline seasonally. Last week, the molten iron production of 247 sample steel mills remained basically unchanged. Steel and molten iron production are at a seasonal low, with limited room for significant increase or decrease. Steel mill restocking is nearly complete, and the market focuses more on spring consumption demand [4] - **Supply**: Global shipments increased slightly, but are expected to continue to decline in the later stage due to seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere. The arrival volume decreased, and port inventory continued to rise and reached a record high [4] - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 777.5 yuan/dry ton, down 1.33% from last week; the SGX iron ore continuous - one settlement price was 102 US dollars/dry ton, down 2.46% from last week. Overseas iron ore shipments from Australia decreased by 2.29% week - on - week, while those from Brazil increased by 27.31% week - on - week. Port inventory increased by 1.53% week - on - week [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, patiently wait for the futures price to stabilize, and then look for opportunities to go long. Do not chase up or kill down [4] 3. Industry News - According to data from Zhaogang.com, as of the week ending February 4, the output of key steel products in the country was 397.41 million tons, a decrease of 32.69 million tons from the previous week; the apparent demand was 338.1 million tons, a decrease of 60.6 million tons from the previous week [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report No clear core view presented in the given content. The report mainly provides daily data on iron ore futures and spot markets. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures and Spot Price Changes - DCE01 increased from 749.0 to 753.5, a rise of 4.5; DCE05 rose from 777.5 to 781.5, an increase of 4.0; DCE09 went up from 760.0 to 764.5, a gain of 4.5 [2] - Most spot iron ore prices decreased, such as PB powder (60.8%) dropped from 783 to 777, a decline of 6 [2] Spread Changes - I01 - I05 spread increased from -28.5 to -28.0, a change of 0.5; I05 - I09 spread decreased from 17.5 to 17.0, a change of -0.5; I09 - I01 spread remained unchanged at 11.0 [2] - Spot variety spreads also had changes, e.g., the spread between Newman powder and Jinbuba powder decreased from 48 to 47, a change of -1 [2] Import Profit Changes - Import profits of some iron ore varieties changed, like PB powder's import profit decreased from 24 to 20, a reduction of 3 [2] Index Changes - The price of Platts Iron Ore 61% decreased from 102.4 to 102.0, a reduction of 0.4; Platts Iron Ore 65% price dropped from 118.4 to 118.0, a decrease of 0.4; Platts Iron Ore 58% price fell from 94.1 to 93.4, a reduction of 0.8 [2][4] Basis and Other Data - The optimal delivery product is Karara powder, with 01 - contract basis of 63, 05 - contract basis of 35, and 09 - contract basis of 52 [2] - The differences between SGX and DCE contracts also changed, e.g., SGX main - DCE01 increased from 4.6 to 4.7, a change of 0.1 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No relevant information provided 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder price is 773, down 5 daily and 18 weekly; PB powder is 777, down 5 daily and 18 weekly; Macfarlane powder is 771, down 5 daily and 18 weekly; Jinbuba powder is 730, down 5 daily and 18 weekly; Super Special powder is 663, down 8 daily and 10 weekly; Roy Hill powder is 764, down 5 daily and 18 weekly [1] - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian mixed powder is 816, down 5 daily and 7 weekly; Brazilian coarse IOC6 is 752, down 5 daily and 7 weekly; Brazilian coarse SSFG is 757, down 5 daily and 7 weekly [1] - **Other Iron Ore**: Ukrainian concentrate powder is 856, down 7 daily and 19 weekly; 61% Indian powder is 719, down 5 daily and 18 weekly; Karara concentrate powder is 861, down 7 daily and 18 weekly; KUMBA powder is 836, down 5 daily and 18 weekly; 57% Indian powder is 598, down 8 daily and 10 weekly; Atlas powder is 716, down 4 daily and 5 weekly [1] - **Domestic Iron Ore**: Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 969, down 2 daily and 10 weekly [1] Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2701 is 749.0, down 4.5 daily and 8.0 weekly; i2605 is 777.5, down 5.5 daily and 10.5 weekly; i2609 is 760.0, down 6.0 daily and 9.5 weekly [1] - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 is 100.71, down 4.91 daily and 4.91 weekly; FE05 is 102.99, down 0.73 daily and 0.55 weekly; FE09 is 101.97, down 0.76 daily and 0.25 weekly [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend. The upward potential depends on coking coal supply - side policies and market sentiment. It is recommended to hold the long position of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar and look for short - term long opportunities for hot - rolled coil at the 3250 level [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Before the Spring Festival, iron ore demand is weak. High inventory and high - level supply during the off - season continue to put pressure on prices. It is expected that the price will fluctuate weakly in the short term, and short - selling can be attempted, but be vigilant about macro and market sentiment disturbances [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, the price increase has been implemented, which drives the market to rebound. However, the lag in the implementation time of price increases by mainstream coke enterprises dampens the expectation of future price increases. After the Spring Festival, there is still an expectation of supply loosening. It is recommended to view it as a unilateral volatility with a reference range of 1600 - 1800, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke. - For coking coal, the market has a re - evaluation of its value, but the domestic supply - demand is generally balanced. It is also recommended to view it as a unilateral volatility with a reference range of 1050 - 1250, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited, the fundamentals are relatively healthy, and there is cost support. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in the range of 5500 - 5800, taking into account macro - sentiment fluctuations. - For ferromanganese, it is in a situation of weak supply and demand. After the Spring Festival, there is still an expectation of production resumption, and the fundamentals lack strength. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in the range of 5600 - 6000, paying attention to macro - sentiment fluctuations [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices: Rebar spot prices in different regions (East China, North China, South China) and futures contract prices (05, 10, 01) have different changes. Hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices also show various trends. For example, rebar spot in North China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil 05 contract decreased by 25 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price is 2920 yuan/ton with no change. Plate billet price is 3730 yuan/ton with no change. Profits of different steel products in different regions vary, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit increased by 7 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output is 228.0 tons with a decrease of 0.1 tons (- 0.1%). The output of five major steel products is 823.2 tons, an increase of 3.6 tons (0.4%). The inventory of five major steel products is 1278.5 tons, an increase of 21.4 tons (1.7%). Rebar inventory continued to accumulate, while hot - rolled coil inventory decreased [1]. Demand - Building materials trading volume decreased by 0.5 tons (- 11.6%). The apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 7.8 tons (- 1.0%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of different iron ore powders (e.g., lower powder, PB powder) decreased, with a decline of about 0.6% - 0.7%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 (2.9%), and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 1.5 (- 12.0%) [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 45.3 tons (- 1.8%), and the global shipping volume increased by 116.3 tons (3.9%). The national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 tons (8.2%) [3]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 tons (- 0.1%), and the 45 - port daily average desilting volume increased by 21.6 tons (6.9%) [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 255.7 tons (1.5%), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 579.8 tons (6.2%) [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices fluctuated. Coke 05 contract increased by 35 yuan/ton (2.1%), and coking coal 05 contract increased by 26 yuan/ton (2.3%). The basis and spreads of different contracts also changed [6]. Supply - Coke production: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5 tons (- 0.7%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons (0.2%). Coking coal production: The raw coal output decreased by 2.7 tons (- 0.34%), and the clean coal output decreased by 0.6 tons (- 0.14%) [6]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 tons (- 0.1%) [6]. Inventory - Coke total inventory increased by 21.5 tons (2.3%), and coking coal inventory in different sectors (e.g., coking plants, steel mills, ports) also had different changes [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures prices changed slightly. Ferrosilicon主力合约 decreased by 4.0 yuan/ton (- 0.1%), and ferromanganese主力合约 increased by 2.0 yuan/ton (0.04%). The spreads between different regions and contracts also changed [7]. Cost and Profit - Ferrosilicon production costs in different regions (e.g., Inner Mongolia, Qinghai) increased slightly, and production profits changed. Ferromanganese production costs in some regions remained stable [7]. Supply - Ferrosilicon weekly output was 9.8 tons, with a slight increase of 0.0 tons (0.1%). Ferromanganese weekly output decreased by 0.1 tons (- 0.4%) [7]. Demand - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese demand remained relatively stable. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 tons (- 0.1%) [7]. Inventory - Ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 0.1 tons (1.0%), and ferromanganese inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 0.1 tons (0.3%) [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - Not provided in the content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Prices - DCE01 decreased from 753.5 to 749.0, a drop of 4.5; DCE05 decreased from 783.0 to 777.5, a drop of 5.5; DCE09 decreased from 766.0 to 760.0, a drop of 6.0 [2] - I01 - I05 increased from -29.5 to -28.5, a rise of 1.0; I05 - I09 increased from 17.0 to 17.5, a rise of 0.5; I09 - I01 decreased from 12.5 to 11.0, a drop of 1.5 [2] Spot Prices - Most spot iron ore prices decreased, such as PB powder (60.8%) dropped from 790 to 783, a decrease of 7; Newman powder dropped from 790 to 783, a decrease of 7; etc [2] - The optimal delivery product is Carajás fines, with a price of 825, 01 - contract factory - warehouse basis of 64, 05 - contract factory - warehouse basis of 34, and 09 - contract factory - warehouse basis of 51 [2] Spot Variety Spreads - Some spreads increased, like Carajás fines - PB powder spread increased from 90 to 92, a rise of 2; Newman powder - Jinbuba powder spread increased from 47 to 48, a rise of 1 [2] Import Profits - Import profits of some varieties changed, such as Carajás fines' import profit decreased from -1 to -7, a decrease of 6; Newman powder's import profit increased from 50 to 51, a rise of 1 [2] Index Prices - The Platts 61% iron ore price decreased from 103.2 to 102.4, a decrease of 0.8; the Platts 65% iron ore price decreased from 118.7 to 118.4, a decrease of 0.3; the Platts 58% iron ore price decreased from 95.2 to 94.1, a decrease of 1.1 [2][4] 内外盘美金价差 - SGX main - DCE01 decreased from 8.4 to 4.6, a decrease of 3.9; SGX main - DCE05 decreased from 4.4 to 0.8, a decrease of 3.6; SGX main - DCE09 decreased from 6.8 to 3.0, a decrease of 3.9 [2][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has declined, leading to price drops. The core contradiction lies in the fact that steel mills' profits support high blast furnace operating rates, but terminal demand seasonally shrinks before the Spring Festival, resulting in light trading volume and increasing inventory. Cost provides support, and prices are unlikely to fall significantly under policy constraints, oscillating in the bottom range [3]. - The iron ore industry is in a supply - demand off - season with no prominent contradictions. Supported by steel mills' inventory replenishment and the recovery of hot metal production, the downside price space is limited [24]. - Affected by overseas supply disruptions, international coking coal prices are strong, and domestic Shanxi coal prices are also firm. The coking coal basis is at a relatively high level. In the short term, the futures market is expected to be more volatile. In the long - term, the market will focus on the resumption of domestic coal mines and the recovery of downstream demand after the Spring Festival. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected resumption of domestic mines" and "weakening macro sentiment", coal and coke prices may face significant downward pressure [37]. - Ferroalloys are supported by the cost side. Silicon manganese is suppressed by high inventory, while the fundamentals of silicon iron are slightly better. In the short term, ferroalloys are expected to oscillate within a range between the cost line and the previous pressure level [50]. - The temporary upsurge in commodity sentiment may drive up some undervalued varieties. If the futures prices rise, there is some room for mid - and downstream inventory replenishment, but demand is average with limited elasticity. Fundamentally, as new production capacity gradually releases output, the daily production of soda ash reaches a new high, and the expectation of oversupply is intensifying. The long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, photovoltaic glass inventory continues to accumulate, and the balance of heavy soda ash remains in surplus. High exports of soda ash alleviate domestic pressure to some extent, while high inventory in the upper and middle reaches restricts prices [64]. - Although the daily melting volume of float glass has declined to a certain low level, both the actual and expected demand are weak. In the context of weak supply and demand, there is no trend - based movement. Before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines are still waiting for cold repair and ignition, which may affect long - term pricing and market expectations. Policy may also disrupt supply. Currently, the high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [88]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Futures Prices - On February 3, 2026, the closing prices of rebar contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3182 yuan/ton, 3099 yuan/ton, and 3151 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3310 yuan/ton, 3265 yuan/ton, and 3286 yuan/ton respectively [4]. Spot Prices - On February 3, 2026, the aggregated rebar prices in China, Shanghai, Beijing, and other regions were 3311 yuan/ton, 3230 yuan/ton, 3140 yuan/ton respectively; the aggregated hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Lecong, and other regions were 3260 yuan/ton, 3270 yuan/ton respectively [10][12]. Other Data - The 01 - 05 rebar spread was 82 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 hot - rolled coil spread was 39 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [4]. - The 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 48 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was - 50 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [10][12]. - The 01 roll - rebar spread was 120 yuan/ton, and the roll - rebar spot spread in Shanghai was 30 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [17]. - The ratios of 01 rebar to 01 iron ore and 01 rebar to 01 coke were both 4 and 2 respectively on February 3, 2026 [21]. Iron Ore Futures Prices - On February 3, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 749 yuan/ton, 777.5 yuan/ton, and 760 yuan/ton respectively [25]. Spot Prices - On February 3, 2026, the prices of Rizhao PB powder, Rizhao Karara powder, and Rizhao Super Special powder were 786 yuan/ton, 886 yuan/ton, and 675 yuan/ton respectively [25]. Fundamental Data - On January 30, 2026, the daily average hot metal production was 227.98 tons, the 45 - port desilting volume was 332.31 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 17022.26 tons [31]. Coal and Coke Futures Prices - On February 3, 2026, the 09 - 01 coking coal spread was - 171.5 yuan/ton, and the 09 - 01 coke spread was - 93.5 yuan/ton [40]. Spot Prices - On February 3, 2026, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1630 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 yuan/ton [43]. Other Data - The on - site coking profit was - 24 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [40]. - The main coking coal to power coal ratio was 2.4035 on February 3, 2026 [43]. Ferroalloys Silicon Iron - On February 3, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 40 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5450 yuan/ton [51]. Silicon Manganese - On February 3, 2026, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 194 yuan/ton, and the silicon manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5680 yuan/ton [52]. Other Data - The double - silicon spread was - 216 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [52]. Soda Ash Futures Prices - On February 3, 2026, the closing prices of soda ash contracts 05, 09, and 01 were 1201 yuan/ton, 1265 yuan/ton, and 1299 yuan/ton respectively [65]. Spot Prices - On February 3, 2026, the heavy soda ash market price in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, and the light soda ash market price was 1200 yuan/ton [65]. Other Data - The 5 - 9 spread of soda ash was - 64 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 34 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [65]. Glass Futures Prices - On February 3, 2026, the closing prices of glass contracts 05, 09, and 01 were 1072 yuan/ton, 1176 yuan/ton, and 1230 yuan/ton respectively [89]. Spot Prices - Not provided in a comprehensive way in the given content. Other Data - The 5 - 9 spread of glass was - 104 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 54 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026 [89]. - On January 30, 2026, the sales - to - production ratio of glass in Shahe was 102%, and in Hubei was 75% [90].

2026年02月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：释放风险 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 3 | | 铜：情绪悲观，价格弱势 | 5 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 7 | | 铅：LME库存减少，限制价格下跌 | 9 | | 锡：回落整理 | 10 | | 铝：等待市场修复 | 11 | | 氧化铝：小幅反弹 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：在震荡中小幅修复 | 13 | | 钯：韧性偏强但仍然低位震荡 | 13 | | 镍：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面与投机盘博弈 | 15 | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，镍铁预期托底下方 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：下游陆续采购，盘面下方空间较有限 | 17 | | 工业硅：硅厂减产落地，下方空间不深 | 19 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交情况 | 19 | | 铁矿石：窄幅震荡 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：市场情绪共振，偏弱震荡 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：市场情绪共振，偏弱震荡 | 22 | | 硅铁：成本预期松动，弱势震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：商品情绪共振，弱势震荡 | 24 | | ...