Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resilience and challenges of the global economy, particularly focusing on the U.S. economic outlook, fiscal policies, and market strategies for the second half of 2025, highlighting the interplay between fiscal expansion, interest rates, and inflation pressures [1][4]. Overseas Macro: Resilience and Concerns - The article notes that external demand for China may significantly decline, making internal demand crucial for economic stability, with a projected GDP growth of 5% for the year and a potential drop in the GDP deflator index to -1% [1]. - The U.S. economy is expected to show resilience despite concerns about recession, with fiscal policies remaining expansionary and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts being limited [5][7]. - The article emphasizes the ongoing challenges posed by tariffs and geopolitical tensions, which may hinder the inflation reduction process [5][8]. U.S. Policy: Fiscal Dominance - The U.S. fiscal policy is characterized by a cyclical expansion, with a low unemployment rate of 4.0-4.2% and a high deficit rate of 6-7%, which is about 3 percentage points above historical averages [7][9]. - The article highlights the negative impacts of high interest rates on private sector financing costs, potentially leading to economic inefficiencies and structural imbalances [8][14]. - The ongoing fiscal expansion is expected to exacerbate the U.S. deficit, with projections indicating a deficit of $1.36 trillion for the 2025 fiscal year, a 13% increase from the previous year [9][11]. Monetary Policy: Reactive Rather Than Proactive - The Federal Reserve's stance is described as reactive, with limited room for interest rate cuts due to persistent inflation and a stable labor market [15][21]. - The article indicates that inflation pressures are shifting from internal to external factors, with tariffs being a significant concern for future inflation [25][29]. - The Fed's cautious approach to rate cuts may lead to a divergence between consumer inflation expectations and financial market predictions [27][29]. U.S. Economic Performance: Behind the Prosperity - The U.S. economy has shown strong performance, with a projected GDP growth rebound to 4% in Q2 2025, driven by a recovery in consumer sentiment and reduced tariff uncertainties [30][33]. - The article notes that while private investment is expanding, it is heavily concentrated in technology sectors, with other sectors facing challenges due to high interest rates [37][41]. - Consumer spending is expected to remain stable, but the underlying financial pressures on households may limit further growth [47][56]. Japan: The Elephant in the Room - Japan's economy is transitioning from deflation to stagflation, with significant challenges to fiscal sustainability and potential risks to global financial markets [61][62]. - The article highlights that Japan's nominal indicators have improved, but actual economic recovery remains weak, with GDP growth at only 1.7% [65][66]. - The potential for rising interest rates in Japan could lead to significant market volatility, impacting global liquidity [75][79]. Overseas Strategy: Favoring Short to Medium-Term U.S. Bonds and Balanced U.S. Equity Allocation - The article suggests maintaining a balanced allocation in U.S. equities, with expectations for a gradual upward trend supported by corporate earnings growth [82][83]. - It recommends holding short to medium-term U.S. bonds while temporarily avoiding long-term bonds due to anticipated high interest rate volatility [88][93]. - The foreign exchange market is expected to see a continued weakening of the U.S. dollar, with non-U.S. currencies gaining strength amid ongoing uncertainties [94][95].

| 国防军工 | | | | 内蒙一机 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 煤炭 | 0.04 | 30.23 | 20.33 | 新大洲A | 2.90 | | 银行 | -0.38 | 202.23 | 26.26 | 苏农银行 | -2.40 | | 石油石化 | -1.35 | 110.25 | -17.64 | 科力股份 | -17.05 | 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午10:28，今日沪指涨0.95%，A股成交量540.75亿股，成交金额6764.01亿 元，比上一个交易日增加26.40%。个股方面，4713只个股上涨，其中涨停53只，625只个股下跌，其中 跌停13只。从申万行业来看，非银金融、汽车、电力设备等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为2.95%、2.41%、 2.14%；石油石化、银行等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为1.35%、0.38%。（数据宝） 今日各行业表现（截至上午10:28） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（ ...

| 通信 | | | | 退市鹏博 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电子 | -1.75 | 1195.91 | 8.93 | 润欣科技 | -7.80 | | 国防军工 | -2.12 | 429.84 | -7.16 | 捷强装备 | -14.53 | | 计算机 | -2.22 | 1072.73 | 13.18 | 退市龙宇 | -35.16 | 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 证券时报·数据宝统计，截至下午13:59，今日沪指跌0.51%，A股成交量999.00亿股，成交金额11940.64 亿元，比上一个交易日增加13.24%。个股方面，1047只个股上涨，其中涨停51只，4261只个股下跌。 从申万行业来看，医药生物、美容护理、银行等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为0.51%、0.46%、0.40%；计算 机、国防军工、电子等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为2.22%、2.12%、1.75%。（数据宝） 今日各行业表现（截至下午13:59） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（% ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to continue a trend of oscillating upward in the coming week, supported by technical indicators and liquidity metrics [1][2]. Market Indicators - The liquidity shock index for the CSI 300 was 0.30, indicating higher liquidity than the average level over the past year by 0.30 standard deviations [2]. - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF options decreased to 0.85, reflecting a reduced caution among investors regarding short-term movements [2]. - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and Wind All A were 0.82% and 1.40%, respectively, indicating increased trading activity [2]. Macroeconomic Factors - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates saw weekly increases of 0.15% and 0.25%, respectively [2]. - The official manufacturing PMI for China in May was reported at 49.5, matching expectations, while the Caixin manufacturing PMI was lower at 48.3 [2]. Technical Analysis - The Wind All A index broke through the SAR point on June 4, signaling a buy opportunity, with the moving average strength index scoring 207, placing it in the 81.6% percentile since 2021 [2][3]. Market Performance - For the week of June 2 to June 6, the SSE 50 index rose by 0.38%, the CSI 300 index increased by 0.88%, the CSI 500 index grew by 1.6%, and the ChiNext index surged by 2.32% [3]. - The overall market PE (TTM) stands at 19.2 times, which is in the 52.3% percentile since 2005 [3]. Factor Analysis - Small-cap factors performed well, with a crowding degree of 1.05, while low valuation factors had a crowding degree of 0.06 [3]. - The industry crowding degree is relatively high in machinery, comprehensive, retail, environmental protection, and beauty care sectors, with notable increases in beauty care and banking [3].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.33% as of 10:28 AM, with a trading volume of 445.73 billion shares and a turnover of 540.25 billion yuan, representing a decrease of 8.41% compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included: - Comprehensive: +2.17% with a turnover of 15.96 billion yuan, led by Dongyangguang (+6.26%) [1]. - Non-ferrous Metals: +1.63% with a turnover of 236.13 billion yuan, led by Sry New Materials (+12.20%) [1]. - Communication: +1.47% with a turnover of 287.97 billion yuan, led by Taichengguang (+15.65%) [1]. - The sectors with the largest declines included: - Transportation: -0.75% with a turnover of 124.09 billion yuan, led by Xinning Logistics (-6.09%) [2]. - Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery: -0.40% with a turnover of 71.39 billion yuan, led by Xiangjia Co. (-5.01%) [2]. - Banking: -0.38% with a turnover of 114.66 billion yuan, led by Qingdao Bank (-1.90%) [2]. Detailed Industry Data - The following industries showed notable performance: - Electronics: +1.43% with a turnover of 481.30 billion yuan, led by Guanghua Technology (+10.02%) [1]. - Power Equipment: +1.27% with a turnover of 404.26 billion yuan, led by Keheng Co. (+20.02%) [1]. - Textile and Apparel: +0.93% with a turnover of 98.88 billion yuan, led by Mankalon (+13.55%) [1]. - Conversely, industries with significant downturns included: - Coal: -0.12% with a turnover of 18.78 billion yuan, led by Dayou Energy (-1.61%) [2]. - Public Utilities: -0.13% with a turnover of 76.12 billion yuan, led by Southern Power Energy (-5.50%) [2]. - Real Estate: +0.13% with a turnover of 47.49 billion yuan, led by Zhujiang Co. (+9.95%) [1].

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 转债市场日度跟踪 20250529 ❖ 市场概况：今日转债增量上涨，估值环比抬升 指数表现：中证转债指数环比上涨 0.58%、上证综指环比上涨 0.70%、深证成 指环比上涨 1.24%、创业板指环比上涨 1.37%、上证 50 指数环比上涨 0.29%、 中证 1000 指数环比上涨 1.76%。 市场风格：小盘成长相对占优。大盘成长环比上涨 0.62%、大盘价值环比下降 0.03%、中盘成长环比上涨 1.48%、中盘价值环比上涨 0.62%、小盘成长环比 上涨 1.53%、小盘价值环比上涨 0.84%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪升温。可转债市场成交额为 571.54 亿元，环比 增长 12.24%；万得全 A 总成交额为 12134.10 亿元，环比增长 17.37%；沪深 两市主力净流入 74.33 亿元，十年国债收益率环比上升 0.45bp 至 1.69%。 转债价格：转债中枢提升，高价券占比提升。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 118.69 元，环比昨日上升 0.59%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 162.71 元，环比 上升 0.07%；偏债型转债的收盘价为 11 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 报告摘要 5月A股港股市场有所回暖 5月A股主要指数涨跌分化，行业端涨多跌少。受风险偏好波动等因素影响，5月（截至27日），A股主要指数 涨跌出现分化，其中万得全A涨幅最大，而科创50跌幅最大。行业端涨多跌少，轻工制造、综合、纺织服饰等 行业表现较好，而电子、计算机、房地产、社会服务等行业表现相对较差。 5月港股市场震荡上行。5月受海外扰动缓和、国内风险偏好回暖等因素影响，港股市场整体走势震荡上行。截 至2025年5月27日，恒生香港35、恒生指数、恒生综合指数、恒生中国企业指数、恒生科技的涨幅分别为 7.6%、5.7%、5.3%、4.9%、1.9%。 A股观点：继续关注三类资产 政策的持续支持以及中长期资金积极流入背景下， A股市场有望震荡上行。当前A股市场的估值处于2010年以 来的均值附近，而随着政策的积极发力，中长期资金带来的增量资金或将持续流入市场，对资本市场形成托 底，A股市场有望震荡上行。 配置方向上，关注三类资产。方向一：稳定类资产，如高股息、黄金。稳定类资产能够在市场面临不确定时提 供确定性。方向二：产业链自主可控。在"双循环"新发展格局和全球产业链重构的双重驱 ...

证券时报·数据宝统计，今日有13个行业主力资金净流入，18个行业主力资金净流出。资金净流入金额 最大的行业为非银金融，涨跌幅3.99%，整体换手率2.05%，成交量较前一个交易日变动147.16%，主力 资金净流量87.55亿元；今日资金净流出最大的行业为电力设备，涨跌幅-0.16%，整体换手率2.20%，成 交量较前一个交易日变动-19.84%，主力资金净流量-28.94亿元。（数据宝） 今日各行业主力资金流向一览 | 行业名 | 成交量（亿 | 成交量较昨日增减 | 换手率 | 涨跌幅 | 今日主力资金净流入（亿 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 称 | 股） | （%） | （%） | （%） | 元） | | 非银金 融 | 84.61 | 147.16 | 2.05 | 3.99 | 87.55 | | 交通运 输 | 67.22 | 51.18 | 1.60 | 1.79 | 25.32 | | 计算机 | 69.35 | 7.62 | 3.92 | 0.86 | 13.07 | | 食品饮 料 | 14.53 | 12.03 | 1.60 | 1 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.19% today, with a trading volume of 606.39 million shares and a total transaction value of 735.57 billion yuan, representing an 18.90% decrease compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included: - Non-bank Financials: +1.23%, with a transaction value of 238.85 billion yuan, led by Hongta Securities (+5.27%) [1]. - Transportation: +1.09%, with a transaction value of 272.69 billion yuan, led by Air China (+24.84%) [1]. - Oil and Petrochemicals: +0.86%, with a transaction value of 48.97 billion yuan, led by Maohua Shihua (+10.11%) [1]. - The sectors with the largest declines included: - Textiles and Apparel: -1.11%, with a transaction value of 100.10 billion yuan, led by Taihu Snow (-7.13%) [2]. - Electric Power Equipment: -0.96%, with a transaction value of 525.10 billion yuan, led by Xinyu Ren (-7.84%) [2]. - Social Services: -0.83%, with a transaction value of 52.02 billion yuan, led by Qujiang Cultural Tourism (-4.03%) [2]. Summary of Sector Changes - Non-bank Financials showed a decrease in transaction value by 7.63% compared to the previous day [1]. - Transportation sector saw a significant increase in transaction value by 40.62% compared to the previous day [1]. - The overall market sentiment reflected a mixed performance across various sectors, with notable gains in non-bank financials and transportation, while textiles and electric power equipment faced declines [1][2].

证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午10:29，今日沪指跌0.26%，A股成交量485.58亿股，成交金额5867.04亿 元，比上一个交易日减少2.38%。个股方面，1220只个股上涨，其中涨停45只，4016只个股下跌，其中 跌停5只。从申万行业来看，美容护理、银行、纺织服饰等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为2.29%、1.17%、 0.74%；国防军工、电子、计算机等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为2.11%、1.65%、1.46%。（数据宝） | 机械设备 | | | | 电光科技 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 计算机 | -1.46 | 664.24 | 13.14 | 网达软件 | -6.63 | | 电子 | -1.65 | 627.06 | -1.72 | 华虹公司 | -11.08 | | 国防军工 | -2.11 | 445.55 | 19.15 | 通易航天 | -9.44 | 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 今日各行业表现（截至上午10:29） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | ...