[Table_Reportdate] 2025年10月27日 超配 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 陶圣禹 S0630523100002 tsy@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -24% -15% -7% 2% 10% 19% 27% 24-10 25-01 25-04 25-07 申万行业指数:非银金融(0749) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.预定利率下调催化8月寿险销售， 把握非银三季报配置机遇——非银 金融行业周报（ 20250922- 20250928） 2.市场活跃度保持高位，关注三季报 业绩催化带来的配置机遇——非银 金融行业周报（ 20250915- 20250921） 3.公募保有规模持续增长，太保发行 H股可转债提升资本实力——非银金 融行业周报（20250908-20250914） [Table_NewTitle 把握非银三季报业绩增长和金融街论坛 ] 政策催化机遇 ——非银金融行业周报（20251020-20251026） [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 行情回顾：上周非银指数上涨2% ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced an overall increase on October 27, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3996.94 points, up 1.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 13489.4 points, up 1.51%, and the ChiNext Index at 3234.45 points, up 1.98%. The North Star 50 Index decreased by 0.2%. Total trading volume reached 23,567.99 billion yuan, an increase of 3,649.94 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Capital Flow - The A-share market saw a net outflow of 75.9 billion yuan in main funds, with an opening net outflow of 19.28 billion yuan and a closing net inflow of 1.68 billion yuan [2]. - The CSI 300 index recorded a net outflow of 37.83 billion yuan, while the ChiNext saw a net outflow of 49.68 billion yuan, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board had a net inflow of 11.01 billion yuan [4]. Sector Performance - Among the 14 sectors, the electronics industry led with a net inflow of 34.32 billion yuan, followed by public utilities with 28.22 billion yuan and non-ferrous metals with 21.67 billion yuan. The power equipment sector experienced the largest net outflow at -50.06 billion yuan [6][7]. Individual Stock Highlights - Shenghong Technology topped the list with a net inflow of 9.47 billion yuan [8]. - Institutions showed significant interest in several stocks, with notable net purchases in Jingzhida and others, while stocks like Demingli saw net selling [10]. Institutional Focus - Recent institutional ratings highlighted several stocks with potential upside, including Tian Nai Technology with a target price of 78.00 yuan, representing a 39.73% upside from the latest closing price [12].

Market Overview - On October 27, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.51%, the ChiNext Index climbed by 1.98%, and the CSI 300 Index gained 1.19% [1] - Among the tradable A-shares, 3,361 stocks rose, accounting for 61.89%, while 1,862 stocks declined [1] Capital Flow - The main capital saw a net outflow of 136 million yuan for the day [1] - The ChiNext experienced a net outflow of 4.2 billion yuan, while the STAR Market had a net outflow of 241 million yuan [1] - The CSI 300 constituent stocks had a net inflow of 1.492 billion yuan [1] Industry Performance - Out of the 28 first-level industries classified by Shenwan, the top-performing sectors were Communication and Electronics, with increases of 3.22% and 2.96%, respectively [1] - The sectors with the largest declines included Media, Food & Beverage, and Real Estate, with decreases of 0.95%, 0.20%, and 0.11% [1] Industry Capital Inflows and Outflows - The Electronics industry led with a net inflow of 6.112 billion yuan and a daily increase of 2.96% [1] - The Non-ferrous Metals sector followed with a net inflow of 2.529 billion yuan and a daily increase of 2.39% [1] - The Power Equipment industry had the largest net outflow, totaling 3.354 billion yuan, despite a daily increase of 0.73% [1] - The Automotive sector also saw a significant net outflow of 2.176 billion yuan, with a daily increase of 0.66% [1] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 2,207 stocks experienced net inflows, with 875 stocks having inflows exceeding 10 million yuan [2] - The stock with the highest net inflow was Industrial Fulian, which rose by 8.19% with a net inflow of 1.915 billion yuan [2] - Other notable stocks with significant inflows included Zhaoyi Innovation and Hengbao Co., both with net inflows of 953 million yuan [2] - Conversely, 105 stocks had net outflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with CITIC Securities, Kehua Data, and Dongfang Wealth leading the outflows at 1.702 billion yuan, 919 million yuan, and 906 million yuan, respectively [2]

Market Overview - The net inflow of large orders in the two markets reached 7.263 billion yuan, with 54 stocks seeing net inflows exceeding 200 million yuan, led by Industrial Fulian with a net inflow of 1.564 billion yuan [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 1.18%, with a total of 2,141 stocks experiencing net inflows and 2,665 stocks seeing net outflows [1] Industry Performance - Among the 17 industries with net inflows, the electronics sector had the highest net inflow of 5.417 billion yuan, with its index rising by 2.96%. The telecommunications sector followed with a net inflow of 3.483 billion yuan and a rise of 3.22% [1] - The power equipment sector experienced the largest net outflow of 2.905 billion yuan, followed by the media sector with a net outflow of 1.421 billion yuan [1] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 54 stocks had net inflows exceeding 200 million yuan, with Industrial Fulian leading at 1.564 billion yuan, followed by Xinyi Sheng with 1.364 billion yuan [2] - Stocks with significant net outflows included CITIC Securities with a net outflow of 1.799 billion yuan, and CATL with 1.040 billion yuan [2][4] - Stocks with net inflows averaging over 200 million yuan saw an average increase of 7.17%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [2] Top Stocks by Net Inflow - The top stocks by net inflow include: - Industrial Fulian: 1.564 billion yuan, 8.19% increase [2] - Xinyi Sheng: 1.364 billion yuan, 8.31% increase [2] - Zhaoyi Innovation: 1.142 billion yuan, 10.00% increase [2] - Shenghong Technology: 1.011 billion yuan, 10.14% increase [2] - Xiamen Tungsten: 0.995 billion yuan, 10.00% increase [2] Top Stocks by Net Outflow - The top stocks by net outflow include: - CITIC Securities: -1.799 billion yuan, 0.40% increase [4] - CATL: -1.040 billion yuan, 0.11% increase [4] - Kehua Data: -0.904 billion yuan, -10.00% decrease [4] - ST Huatuo: -0.743 billion yuan, -5.01% decrease [4] - SMIC: -0.737 billion yuan, 0.33% increase [4]

2025.10. 27 断，国内经济复苏，美联储继续降息，预计年底大盘会继续震荡向上，在热点方面，前期主要是人工 智能和"反内卷"为主线，预计第四季度国企改革、机器人、半导体芯片等等都是市场主线。 港股100研究中心顾问余丰慧表示，A股在今日表现非常强劲，上证指数逼近4000点大关。这反映 了当前市场的乐观情绪以及投资者对于未来经济增长的信心。展望年底行情，有几个关键因素需要考 虑。首先，政策环境仍然是支持股市的重要力量。如果货币政策继续保持宽松，并且有更多的财政刺 激措施出台，这对股市是一个积极信号。其次，外资流入的态势若能持续，也将为A股提供强有力的 资金支持。此外，随着科技创新和产业升级成为国家发展的重要方向，相关行业的股票有望继续表现 良好。 博大资本行政总裁温天纳表示，此次股市反弹主要受两大因素驱动：其一，中美贸易争端出现缓和迹 象，双方就未来协议释放积极信号，形成正面预期；其二，上周传递的政策信息整体偏暖，叠加四季 度一系列经济稳定措施即将陆续出台，对市场信心构成显著支撑。 光大证券国际策略师伍礼贤向第一财经表示,"今天A股的表现还是比较强劲的，受到了中美谈判释放 利好消息推动。"他表示，上周A股 ...

Core Insights - As of October 24, the total market financing balance reached 2.44 trillion yuan, an increase of 58.95 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - A total of 1,619 stocks received net financing purchases, with 472 stocks having net purchases exceeding 10 million yuan, and 54 stocks exceeding 100 million yuan [1] - The top net purchase stock was Zhongji Xuchuang, with a net purchase amount of 1.63 billion yuan, followed by Hanwujing-U and Shenghong Technology [1][2] Financing Balance and Stock Performance - The financing balance in the Shanghai market was 1.235 trillion yuan, increasing by 29.86 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen market's financing balance was 1.197297 trillion yuan, also up by 29.34 billion yuan [1] - The Beijing Stock Exchange saw a decrease in financing balance to 75.21 billion yuan, down by 2.55 million yuan [1] - The average financing balance as a percentage of circulating market value for stocks with significant net purchases was 4.07% [2] Sector Analysis - The industries with the highest concentration of stocks receiving net purchases over 100 million yuan were electronics, power equipment, and non-ferrous metals, with 25, 4, and 4 stocks respectively [1] - The distribution of major net purchase stocks included 34 from the main board, 11 from the ChiNext board, and 9 from the Sci-Tech Innovation board [1] Notable Stocks and Their Financing Ratios - Cambridge Technology had the highest financing balance as a percentage of circulating market value at 7.92%, followed by Xiechuang Data and Yinzhijie at 7.06% and 7.03% respectively [2] - The top net purchase stocks on October 24 included Zhongji Xuchuang (12.05% increase), Hanwujing-U (9.01% increase), and Shenghong Technology (7.95% increase) [2][3]

Core Conclusions - The report explores the long-term trend of excess returns across various primary industries, identifying food and beverage, home appliances, and electrical equipment as the sectors with the highest historical likelihood of achieving sustained excess returns over three years [1][2] - The consumer sector shows a greater probability of long-term excess returns compared to other industries, attributed to its stable "ballast" characteristics [2][10] - Cyclical industries generally have a lower probability of achieving sustained excess returns due to short-term inventory cycles, while the electrical equipment sector benefits from ongoing demand, leading to a higher historical probability of long-term excess returns compared to other cyclical industries [2][15] Industry Analysis Food and Beverage, Home Appliances, and Electrical Equipment - These three industries have the highest sample counts for "three-year trend excess," indicating a historical tendency for long-term excess returns [2][8] - The excess returns in food and beverage and home appliances can be divided into two phases: one of pricing boom and another of pricing stability, with ROE showing rapid growth and stability exceeding the overall market [10][11] Electrical Equipment - The electrical equipment sector has benefited from two peaks in power and grid construction from 2003 to 2010, and from 2019 to 2023, driven by domestic carbon neutrality initiatives and global grid reinvestment [15][20] - The core logic is based on the "resonance of global grid capital expenditure," which supports the sector's long-term growth [15] TMT Industries (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) - Currently, the industries that have achieved excess returns for three consecutive years include electronics, communications, media, non-bank financials, and banking [2][20] - The continuation of excess returns in TMT sectors is influenced by the market beta at the time of excess formation and the industry's own profit cycle [3][20] - The electronics sector, despite significant underperformance from late 2014 to mid-2015, maintained a positive three-year rolling excess return due to its resilient fundamentals [3][20] - The media sector often fails to extend excess returns into the fourth year due to fundamental challenges and policy shifts affecting the industry [3][20] - The telecommunications sector has shown consistent excess returns, particularly during the AI industry trend, which is expected to continue [21][23] Financial Sector - The probability of non-bank financials and banking sectors extending their excess returns into the fourth year after three consecutive years is relatively low, at 4% and 6% respectively [3][32] - Excess returns in the financial sector typically occur during market risk-off periods or when policy expectations rise, but can diminish if market focus shifts to high-growth sectors [32]

- The report constructs a "Hot Money Activity Indicator" based on the data from the Dragon and Tiger List, which shows the participation enthusiasm of hot money traders. The indicator has been marginally rising but the slope of the rise has been slowing down, indicating that the enthusiasm of hot money traders is peaking[12] - The "Retail Investor Activity Indicator" constructed in the report shows that since September 11, the activity of retail investors has been fluctuating and has not significantly increased even when the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high for the year on October 25[12] - The report suggests that the recent marginal cooling of both hot money and retail investor sentiment can be verified by the continuous shrinkage of market turnover[12] - The "Insider Trader Activity Indicator" constructed in the report shows that the activity of insider traders is in sync with the market trend, with the equity market rising and the indicator maintaining a warming trend[15] - The report uses the "Price Segmentation System" to analyze the Shanghai Composite Index, showing that the daily line of the index maintains a marginal upward trend, and the weekly line is basically coincident with the daily line[14] - The "Hot Money Activity Indicator" value as of October 24 is close to leveling off[12] - The "Retail Investor Activity Indicator" has been fluctuating since September 11[12] - The "Insider Trader Activity Indicator" shows a warming trend in sync with the market[15] - The "Price Segmentation System" shows a +2.88% range fluctuation for the Shanghai Composite Index from October 20 to October 24[14]

- The sentiment timing model indicates that the market trend has been broken, issuing a negative signal[1][2][6] - The liquidity shock indicator for the CSI 300 index was 0.84 on Friday, lower than the previous week's 1.57, indicating that current market liquidity is 0.84 standard deviations above the average level of the past year[2][7] - The PUT-CALL ratio of the SSE 50ETF options trading volume decreased to 0.72 on Friday from the previous week's 1.07, indicating an increase in short-term optimism among investors regarding the SSE 50ETF[2][7] - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and Wind All A Index were 1.19% and 1.66%, respectively, indicating a decrease in trading activity compared to previous periods[2][7] - The SAR indicator shows that the Wind All A Index broke below the reversal indicator on October 17[2][11] - The moving average strength index calculated from the Wind secondary industry indices scored 197, which is at the 71.2% percentile since 2023[2][11] - The sentiment model score is 2 out of 5, the trend model signal is negative, and the weighted model signal is negative[2][11][14] - The small-cap factor congestion level increased to 0.41, the low-valuation factor congestion level was -0.26, the high-profitability factor congestion level was -0.15, and the high-growth factor congestion level was 0.35[4][15][16][18]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The third quarter reports are expected to exceed expectations, indicating a balanced offensive and defensive stance in the non-bank financial sector [5] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasizes the need to deepen comprehensive reforms in investment and financing, enhancing the capital market's inclusiveness and competitiveness [5] - The upcoming financial forum is anticipated to highlight the positive outlook for the third quarter reports of brokerage and insurance companies [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Brokerage Sector - Daily average trading volume for equity funds is 2.33 trillion, down 16.2% week-on-week, but market recovery is driving new fund launches [6] - Major brokerage firms like CITIC Securities and Oriental Fortune reported strong third-quarter results, with CITIC's net profit up 52% year-on-year and Oriental Fortune's up 78% [6] - The outlook for brokerage firms remains positive, with expected improvements in investment banking, derivatives, and public fund businesses, alongside low valuations and significant institutional underweight [6] Insurance Sector - Recent third-quarter earnings forecasts from major insurers indicate substantial growth, with China Life expecting a net profit increase of 50% to 70% year-on-year [7] - The stabilization of long-term interest rates and improved asset yields are expected to enhance insurers' return on equity (ROE) [7] - Recommended stocks include China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and Ping An, with a focus on undervalued companies [7]