操作评级 贵金属 女女女 贵金属日报 2026年02月10日 吴江 高级分析师 F3085524 Z0016394 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 贵金属震荡反弹，总体波动平淡。市场聚焦本周美国非农就业和CPI数据以重新评估降息前景，美国国家经 济委员会主任哈塞特预警就业增长数字将会下降，但认为GDP增长非常强劲。美伊谈判将会继续,地缘仍存 在不确定性。短期贵金属处于剧烈震荡阶段,观望等待波动率下降。 白银方面,随着伊朗地缘冲击延缓，内外权益市场回暖,市场风险偏好出现了短期修复,对应金银比出现回 暖,短期仍有一定反弹空间。 铂兜:短期市场情绪脆弱,资金继续减仓，在金、银高位调整背景下，铂兜溢价空间被大幅压缩，投资需求 减退,盘面有望从交易预期转向交易现实。汽车尾气催化剂领域的需求拖累依然存在,铂、肥短期仍存下调 空间。但铂把日间波动较大，参与难度高，叠加春节长假临近，观望为宜。 美元走势已成为金价的主要驱动因素,而市场对美国经济数据疲软的预期进一步放大这一效应。美元疲软并 非孤立现象，而是与美国债市收益率的小幅回落密切相关。周一10年期国债收益率下跌至4.1 ...

在资本市场狂欢的同时，贵金属领域也迎来了"过山车"式的极致反转。RadexMarkets瑞德克斯认为，金 银价格的反复拉扯反映了交易者对于宏观流动性预期的极度敏感。事实数据表示，白银上周在经历 92 进入本周，市场焦点将完全锁定在因政策延迟而延后发布的美国 1 月非农就业报告上。目前市场共识预 期新增就业人数约为 7 万人，失业率预计维持在 4.4% 的高位。考虑到周二即将公布的美国零售销售数 据以及周五的核心 CPI 通胀读数，这三大支柱数据将共同构筑市场对美联储下一步政策导向的终极预 期。此外，RadexMarkets瑞德克斯表示，地缘政经局势也带来了新的波动点，高市早苗在日本选举中的 绝对优势促使日元同步走强，日经 225 指数对此反应积极，相关货币对的联动效应或将在本周外汇市场 持续发酵。 综上所述，尽管短期内受政府关停及解密文件等突发因素干扰，但全球主要资产的底部支撑已初步显 现。RadexMarkets瑞德克斯认为，本周将是宏观政策与经济数据共振的超级周，非农报告的超预期表现 可能成为美元及大宗商品走势的分水岭。在当前高波动率的环境下，投资者应密切关注本周四英国 GDP 数据的发布及日本施政方向的 ...

期货下午茶 2026年02月10日 星期二 金十期货APP独家整 - 市场情绪仪表盘 震荡 弱勢 票 家偏 马棕库存大降 | 沪锡基本 l 今日关键词 ノ 沪锡修复 ● 棕榈去库 ® 伊朗 叉 今日焦点 (多头明星) ■ 供应紧张有缓解迹象但短期受限。缅甸复产打 而冶炼端因库存偏低及年末检修，产量受限 期下游采购回暖致库存下降。基本面改善叠1 弹回升。 今日热点资讯 央视新闻：伊朗空军司令表示目前处- 地缘 批忆云公壮名立对新刊试陆 ——日公生尽败公 "兰区工区" |以灯刀儿//世田/ツ列/三/X/J/J 险升温利多原油及避险资产。 MPOB重磅报告:马来西亚1月棕榈油 油脂 量减少13.78%，出口大增11.44%，报告整体 沪锡2603 SHFE sn2603 · 沪锡2603M (SHFE sn2603) 日窗V 388590 384810 377250 373470 369690 365910 瑞达期货2月10日研报: PLS宣布与天宜锂业签署15万吨锂辉? 锂电 吨保底价格。国际合作方面，印度正与多国矿 ICAC数据显示全球棉花产量持续高于 农产 此外，国内发改委数据显示生猪价格及猪粮比 文华商品指 ...

2月10日，上海期货交易所（下称"上期所"）发布公告，对部分客户采取限制开仓措施。 上期所在公告中表示，2026年2月10日，2组实际控制关系账户在相关合约上账户组日内开仓交易量超限达到交易所处理标 准。上述客户交易行为违反《上海期货交易所异常交易行为管理办法》第16条之规定，交易所决定对相关客户在相应合约上 采取限制开仓的监管措施。 密集出台措施 就在前几日，上期所刚刚出台了多项措施，包括密集上调交易保证金比例和涨跌停板幅度。 具体来看，铜CU2702、铝AL2702、铅PB2702、锌ZN2702、氧化铝AO2702合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为10%，套保持仓交易保 证金比例调整为11%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为12%； 铸造铝合金AD2702、线材WR2702、不锈钢SS2702合约的涨跌 停板幅度调整为8%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为9%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为10%；镍NI2702、锡SN2702合约的 涨跌停板幅度调整为12%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为13%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为14%；黄金AU2605合约的 涨跌停板幅度调整为17%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为18%，一般持 ...

商品量化CTA周度跟踪 国投期货研究院 金融工程组 国技期货 需求 大类合成 价表 倍 =利用 7.8 6.8 5.8 4.8 3.8 2.8 1.8 0.8 2026/2/10 黑色板块动量小幅下降 商品本周占比变化不大,主要表现贵金 属和有色板块因子强度企稳回升,黑色 和农产品板块受截面轮动影响下降。目 前截面偏强的板块是有色和化工,截面 偏弱的板块是黑色。具体来看,黄金时 序出现动量反转的迹象,逐步企稳,白 银的持仓量小幅回升。有色板块短周期 动量上升,期限结构分化收窄,铝和镍 截面偏强。黑色板块时序动量边际回 落,截面上看螺纹偏弱。能化板块中短 周期动量截面分化扩大,苯乙烯截面偏 强纯碱偏弱。农产品方面,短周期动量 没有发生明显反转,持仓量维持中性以 下。 | | 上周收益(%) | 当月收益(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | -0.11 | 0.64 | | 需求 | 0.00 | -0.45 | | 库存 | -0.17 | 0.01 | | 价差 | -0.02 | 0.73 | | 大类累加 | -0.13 | 0.00 | 用 醇 策略净值方面,上周供给因子走弱 ...

期货日报网讯（记者 杨美） 2月10日，在中国证监会指导下，中国期货业协会发布《期货公司交易结算 系统压力测试管理细则（试行）（征求意见稿）》（以下简称《管理细则》），面向行业及社会公开征 求意见。 此外，《管理细则》还要求期货公司按照准备测试环境、构造场景数据、明确测试指标，应当参照《证 券期货业交易结算系统压力测试指南》基础合规场景有关内容，确保相关指标符合通过标准，这将增强 行业自律规则的协同性。田冰表示，《管理细则》将与《证券期货业交易结算系统压力测试指南》形成 合力，推动基础合规与扩展增强、推荐补充场景测试相结合，助力行业向主动风险管理转变，为期货市 场高质量发展夯实技术基础。 值得关注的是，《管理细则》设置了刚性性能门槛，要求确保系统性能容量不低于历史峰值的两倍，重 点测试交易结算系统的订单接收有效率、订单处理正确率、客户登录成功率、业务查询成功率及结算耗 时等指标。 田冰指出，《管理细则》的出台为行业提供了统一的测试标准与操作框架，具有多重积极意义。一方面 将推动管理机制标准化，通过统一测试周期、场景与指标，促使期货公司建立制度化、规范化的压力测 试体系，提升测试的科学性与行业可比性；另一方面将 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai zinc will experience volatile adjustments, with a focus on the 24,300 - 25,000 yuan/ton range, and the upward momentum is weak [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main - contract is 24,455 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the 03 - 04 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 50 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,382 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar - The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 192,983 lots, down 1,044 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 54 lots, down 498 lots - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 70,689 tons, up 5,535 tons; the LME inventory is 106,925 tons, down 675 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 24,460 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 24,170 yuan/ton, down 520 yuan - The basis of the ZN main contract is 5 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is - 23.73 US dollars/ton, down 2.17 US dollars - The ex - works price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,510 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 7,700 tons, down 4,900 tons - The global zinc mine production is 1.0627 million tons, down 11,900 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 675,000 tons, up 21,000 tons - The zinc ore import volume is 462,600 tons, down 53,900 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 8,760.85 tons, down 9,469.07 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 27,266.66 tons, down 15,548.89 tons - The social inventory of zinc is 128,000 tons, up 9,500 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, up 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, down 60,000 tons - The monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, up 53.1326 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 603.4813 million square meters, up 208.942 million square meters - The monthly automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, down 107,500 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 26.01%, up 2.43%; the historical volatility of the at - the - money option for 20 days is 38.7% - The implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 26.01%, up 2.44%; the historical volatility of the at - the - money option for 60 days is 19.41% [3] 3.7 Industry News - The General Secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee stated that the key to building a modern socialist country lies in self - reliance and self - improvement in science and technology - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that even if Wash becomes the Fed Chairman, the balance - sheet reduction will not be carried out rapidly, and the decision may require up to a one - year assessment [3]

投资咨询系列报告 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏弱，沪金主力收涨0.48%，沪银主力收涨1.97%，铂金主力收跌0.50%，钯金主力收涨跌1.06%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，美伊等地缘异动风险上升；新联储主席预期偏鹰，美国就业走弱通胀压力仍存，降息预期渐近尾声。②避险属性方 面，美伊冲突升级，地区紧张局势升温。③货币属性方面，美联储戴利指出劳动力市场存在脆弱性，仍有降息空间。美国1月ADP 新增就业岗位2.2万个，远低于市场预期4.8万人，前值由4.1万下修至3.7万。特朗普提名前美联储理事沃什接替鲍威尔，新提名引 爆鹰派预期，其主张缩减资产负债表并对降息持谨慎态度，但上任仍存一定变数。美国12月PPI创五个月来最大环比涨幅，意味着 未来数月通胀可能加速，让美联储能够在一段时间内维持利率稳定。目前市场预期美联储降息年内完成，下次降息或到6月。美元 指数和美债收益率低位反弹；④商品属性方面，中国央行连续15个月增持黄金。关注银铂钯需求证伪风险。白银受到供应偏紧支 撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱， 人民币升值利空内价格。⑤预计贵 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views - The current focus of soybean meal futures trading is on the weakening spot market with significant north - south differences. Domestic soybean inventories in oil mills are decreasing, while soybean meal inventories are rising as downstream procurement is completed. The US soybean market is strong in the short - term due to US procurement statements and biodiesel policies. The domestic soybean meal market is expected to rebound in the short - term following US soybean costs but may be constrained by new supplies in the far - month contracts [1]. - Rapeseed meal is weak due to rumors of increased Canadian rapeseed imports and the start of Australian rapeseed crushing. Its independent upward trend is difficult to sustain despite low valuations [1]. - In the near - term, the supply of soybeans is seasonally decreasing, while demand from feed mills is at a high level. In the long - term, the cost of soybeans remains firm, but import profits are slightly falling. The supply of rapeseed meal is expected to recover, and South American soybean production is likely to be abundant, which will put pressure on domestic meal prices [5][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations - **Core Contradictions** - **Soybean Meal**: Spot prices are weakening with large north - south differences. Domestic oil mill soybean inventories are down, but soybean meal inventories are up as downstream procurement is finished. The US soybean market is strong in the short - term, and the domestic market may follow in the short - term but face supply constraints in the far - month [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Rumors of Canadian rapeseed imports and the start of Australian rapeseed crushing have led to a weak market. Independent upward trends are hard to sustain due to limited pre - holiday demand [1]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations** - **Base - price Strategy**: Unpriced basis should be priced after the decline in Brazilian premiums in March next year. For priced basis, be cautious of pre - holiday sales. After the Lunar New Year, consider fixed - price purchases [17]. - **Spread Strategy**: Exit the M3 - 5 spread reverse arbitrage [17]. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: Expand the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 2605 contracts, expecting it to return to a normal range [17]. - **Industry Customer Operation Recommendations** - **Price Range Forecast**: Soybean meal is expected to be in the range of 2800 - 3300 yuan/ton with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.4% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 6.0%. Rapeseed meal is expected to be in the range of 2250 - 2750 yuan/ton with a volatility of 13.5% and a historical percentile of 10.8% [19]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Traders with high protein inventories can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits. Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about excessive imports can short soybean meal futures [19]. - **Basic Data Overview** - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices, daily changes, and percentage changes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts are provided, along with the prices and changes of CBOT soybeans, the offshore RMB, and various spreads [20]. - **Import Costs and Pressing Profits**: The import costs and pressing profits of US Gulf and Brazilian soybeans, as well as Canadian rapeseed, are presented [21][23]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events - **This Week's Important Information** - **Positive Information**: The Brazilian soybean harvest progress is 16% as of February 5. Recent rainfall in Brazil is beneficial for the remaining soybeans. Argentina is expected to have more rainfall, which may improve the situation. The US Treasury issued rules for biofuel tax credits [23][24]. - **Negative Information**: High US soybean prices may attract new - season planting. Brazilian and Argentine harvest progress is ahead of last year. The US reported a sale of 264,000 tons of soybeans to China. Trump said China may increase soybean purchases [24][25]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Downstream near - month physical inventories are at a high level, and far - month basis transactions are active, but the near - month basis is uncertain [25]. - **Next Week's Important Events** - USDA export inspection report, domestic weekly inventory data, and Brazilian Secex weekly report on Monday [29] - USDA monthly supply - demand report [29] - USDA export sales report on Thursday [31] - CFTC agricultural positions on Saturday [31] 3.3 Disk Interpretation - **Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation** - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal market is oscillating weakly at the valuation bottom, and rapeseed meal's rebound is limited. The capital flow shows a bearish sentiment in the soybean meal options market. The futures spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal maintain a B - structure, and the 3 - 5 spreads are weakening. The basis of both is also weakening [30][36][40]. - **Foreign Market**: The US soybean market rose sharply due to China's potential purchase but was suppressed by Brazil's high - yield prospects. The CFTC data shows that managed funds are turning bullish, but less so than last time [52][57]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - **Production Area Profit Tracking**: The crushing profits in the US soybean production area are slightly rising, while those in Brazil are slightly falling due to increased freight. Argentina's crushing profits are rising, and Canada's rapeseed crushing profits are slightly increasing [61]. - **Import - Export and Pressing Profit Tracking**: Simple valuation based on import prices may be ineffective in the first quarter. Chinese procurement of US soybeans is less economical than that of Brazilian soybeans. The import - pressing profits of Canadian rapeseed are weakening, and those of Australian rapeseed are negative [67]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction - **International Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction** - **US**: The upcoming 2 - month USDA report is expected to be bearish, with little adjustment to the supply side and possible reduction in demand or no adjustment to exports and an increase in crushing. The ending stocks are expected to remain around 300 million bushels. However, if China purchases 800,000 tons of US soybeans, the ending stocks may drop significantly. The crushing volume is likely to increase [91][92]. - **South America**: The 2 - month USDA report is expected to slightly reduce Argentina's production due to drought, slightly increase or keep unchanged Brazil's production, and slightly increase Paraguay's production. South America is expected to have a bumper harvest [93]. - **Domestic Supply - Side Deduction**: The arrival of imported soybeans in the second quarter of next year will put pressure on the M05 contract. The supply pressure is expected to return after the second quarter [94]. - **Domestic Demand - Side Deduction**: The domestic soybean supply in the first quarter is relatively abundant, and the crushing volume is expected to remain high. The consumption of soybean meal is unlikely to increase significantly after the previous high - level procurement [98]. - **Domestic Inventory - Side Deduction**: The domestic soybean inventory is at a seasonal high but will decline in the first quarter. The soybean meal inventory will also show a seasonal decline, reaching a minimum of about 500,000 tons at the end of the first quarter next year [100].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai tin will experience a short - term adjustment with a bullish trend, and investors should pay attention to the 400,000 yuan mark [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 382,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,180 yuan; the closing price of the March - April contract of Shanghai tin is down 770 yuan to - 610 yuan; LME 3 - month tin is at 49,815 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2,660 US dollars; the main contract position of Shanghai tin is 32,207 lots, a decrease of 1,418 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 5,664 lots, a decrease of 141 lots; LME tin total inventory is 7,030 tons, a decrease of 55 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 8,750 tons, a decrease of 1,718 tons; LME tin cancelled warrants are 265 tons, a decrease of 50 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of tin are 6,385 tons, an increase of 48 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 385,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 12,200 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 390,090 yuan/ton, an increase of 17,260 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 10,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9,980 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 156 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 17,600 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 359,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 17,200 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 363,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 17,200 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, an increase of 323.25 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 244,890 yuan/ton, an increase of 7,570 yuan; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,528,700 tons, an increase of 138,700 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 142,900 tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - The General Secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee stated that building a modern socialist country depends on scientific and technological self - reliance and self - strength. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that even if Wash becomes the Fed Chairman, the balance - sheet reduction will not be carried out rapidly, and the decision may take up to a year for evaluation [3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - On the macro level, the emphasis on scientific and technological self - reliance and self - strength and the cautious attitude of the Fed towards balance - sheet reduction are noted. On the fundamental level, the supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the first quarter, with a slight rebound in processing fees, indicating a relief of the supply shortage. However, the raw material inventory of smelting enterprises is still low, and production is limited, but there is pressure for output to rebound after the Chinese New Year. The import pressure is increasing as Indonesian tin exports rise. On the demand side, the development of the AI field will drive the demand for solder, and the downstream purchasing atmosphere has improved, with a significant decline in inventory and a rebound in the spot premium. Technically, the position is stable and the price is rising, with a bullish sentiment [3]