Core Insights - The rubber sector experienced a decline of 0.31% on November 7, with Zhen'an Technology leading the losses [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3997.56, down 0.25%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13404.06, down 0.36% [1] Rubber Sector Performance - Notable gainers in the rubber sector included: - Sanwei Equipment (code: 920834) with a closing price of 17.34, up 4.71% and a trading volume of 109,300 shares, totaling 193 million yuan [1] - Yuanxiang New Materials (code: 301300) closed at 43.07, up 3.81% with a trading volume of 42,200 shares, totaling 183 million yuan [1] - Litong Technology (code: 920225) closed at 40.08, up 2.30% with a trading volume of 55,100 shares, totaling 217 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers included: - Quecheng Co. (code: 605183) closed at 19.79, up 1.96% [1] - Haida Co. (code: 300320) closed at 10.03, up 1.42% [1] Decliners in the Rubber Sector - Zhen'an Technology (code: 300767) led the declines with a closing price of 20.69, down 3.27% and a trading volume of 83,600 shares, totaling 174 million yuan [2] - Other notable decliners included: - Fengwu Co. (code: 301459) closed at 41.84, down 1.99% [2] - Sanwei Co. (code: 603033) closed at 11.23, down 1.84% [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The rubber sector saw a net outflow of 43.15 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net inflow of 12.67 million yuan [2] - Speculative funds recorded a net inflow of 30.49 million yuan [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the domestic butadiene market declined rapidly, reaching the mid - 2023 level. Ample supply, weak upstream and downstream products, and the external market dampened downstream buying sentiment. However, as prices hit annual lows, some downstream buyers replenished inventory, and the market found short - term support. The market stopped falling and consolidated in the latter part of the week under the influence of synthetic rubber futures [3]. - Although suppliers intended to stabilize or increase prices, market sentiment remained cautious due to fundamental expectations. The butadiene end improved slightly at the end of the cycle, reducing the bearish sentiment in the butadiene rubber market. Some arbitrageurs bought discounted butadiene rubber resources, and spot traders tried to increase prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions Overview - **Futures Market**: The domestic butadiene rubber futures contract BR2601.SHF had a closing price of 10,305 yuan/ton, up 0.68%; the settlement price was 10,170 yuan/ton, up 0.25%. The trading volume was 128,144 lots, up 53.50%, and the open interest was 83,941 lots, up 191.08%. The warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 100% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of butadiene in various regions declined. For example, the price in Hangzhou dropped by 1.32% to 7,450 yuan/ton. The ex - factory prices of some manufacturers also decreased, such as Nanjing Yangzi's price dropping by 5.06% to 7,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Price Spreads**: There were various price spreads in the market, including inter - month spreads, cross - month spreads, cross - variety spreads, etc. For example, the BR - RU spread was - 4,615 yuan/ton, down 2.71% [3]. Industry Chain Analysis - **Butadiene Market**: Domestic production and imports were abundant, and the supply could not support the market. The prices of upstream and downstream products and the external market were weak, affecting downstream buying sentiment. However, some downstream buyers replenished inventory at low prices, and the market found short - term support [3]. - **Butadiene Rubber Market**: Although there was a restart of a butadiene rubber plant in Sichuan Petrochemical, many plants in East and South China were under maintenance. The butadiene end improved at the end of the cycle, reducing the bearish sentiment in the butadiene rubber market. Some arbitrageurs and spot traders were active [3]. Strategy Operation - **Unilateral Strategy**: The BR contract is expected to move in a consolidation pattern [3]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: After the price spreads widen again, consider going long on BR and short on RU or NR [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The rubber market has rebounded and risen. In the short - term, with the positive performance of the commodity market, rubber is likely to maintain a relatively strong oscillation. The trading strategy is to hold long single - side positions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: RU主力 increased by 195 to 15045, NR主力 rose by 195 to 12130, BR主力 went up by 70 to 10305, Tocom RSS3 (yen/kg) decreased by 0.7 to 310.1, and Sicom TF (cents/kg) remained unchanged at 168.0 [3]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: RU2605 - RU2601 decreased by 20 to 75, RU2609 - RU2605 increased by 10 to 65, NR主力 - 次主力 increased by 15 to 15, and BR主力 - 次主力 decreased by 170 to - 80 [3]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: RU - NR was 2915, RU - BR increased by 125 to 4740, NR - BR increased by 33, RU - Tocom RSS3 ($) was 100, and NR - Sicom TF ($) increased by 28 to 23 [3]. Raw Material Prices - In Thailand, the price of smoked sheet rubber was 58.30 (decreased by 0.7), the price of glue remained at 56.30. In Hainan, the price of glue for concentrated latex and whole - milk latex remained unchanged at 14200 and 13100 respectively. In Yunnan, the price of glue for concentrated latex decreased by 200 to 13700, and the price of rubber blocks for whole - milk latex decreased by 200 to 13600 [3]. Factory Costs and Profits - The concentrated latex production profit in Thailand increased by 15 to 500. The factory cost in Hainan remained unchanged at - 429. The gross profit of Thai smoked sheet rubber increased by 21, and the gross profit of Thai 20 - grade rubber increased by 21 to - 571 [3]. Spot Market - **Domestic Spot**: The price of old whole - milk latex decreased by 100 to 14350, the price of Vietnamese 3L decreased by 50 to 14950, the price of Thai mixed rubber decreased by 20 to 14380, etc. [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price of cis - butadiene BR9000 decreased by 100 to 10200, the price of styrene - butadiene SBR1502 decreased by 200 to 10600, and the price of styrene - butadiene SBR1712 decreased by 100 to 9700 [3]. - **Overseas Spot**: The price of Thai mixed rubber CIF decreased by 5 to 1775, the price of Malaysian mixed rubber CIF decreased by 5 to 1765, etc. [3]. Spreads in Spot and Futures - **RU Spreads**: RU - Thai mixed rubber decreased by 5 to 470, RU - old whole - milk latex increased by 75 to 500, RU - Vietnamese 3L increased by 25 to - 100 [3]. - **NR Spreads**: NR - Thai standard delivery profit decreased by 26 to - 863, NR - Indian standard delivery profit increased by 46 to - 364 [3]. - **Spot Spreads**: The spread between domestic standard - 2 and Thai mixed rubber increased by 20 to - 680, the spread between old whole - milk latex and Vietnamese 3L decreased by 50 to - 600 [3]. Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The US dollar index remained unchanged at 100.1593, the US dollar/Chinese yuan decreased by 0.004 to 7.0865, the US dollar/Japanese yen remained unchanged at 154.1220, and the US dollar/Thai baht remained unchanged at 32.4775 [3]. Supply, Inventory and Demand - **Supply**: The price of raw material glue in Thailand was 56.30 baht/kg. The prices of glue in Hainan and Yunnan for different rubber types had certain changes [3]. - **Inventory**: As of November 2, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 44.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.54 million tons or 3.57%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.58% to 6.83 million tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 4.36% to 37.94 million tons [3]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral. The rating for BR is also neutral [12] Core Viewpoints - The rubber price mainly fluctuates with the surrounding market atmosphere. The change in the rubber fundamentals may come from the supply side. With the increase in the arrival volume in China, the inventory has started to increase slightly, and it is expected to further increase in the future. However, the raw material prices in overseas main producing areas remain firm due to rainfall disruptions, providing strong cost support for natural rubber and limiting the short - term downward space. Currently, the domestic futures price valuation is still low, but the supply - demand drive is insufficient, so the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. - For BR, the decline in the upstream butadiene raw material price since late October in China has turned the production profit of butadiene rubber from loss to profit, partially offsetting the support from the recent concentrated maintenance of upstream butadiene rubber plants. With resilient downstream demand and a relatively low absolute price, the further downward space is expected to be limited. The supply - demand contradiction of butadiene rubber is not prominent, and it mainly fluctuates with the upstream raw materials. In the context of abundant butadiene supply, its weakness is expected to continue [12] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,045 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,130 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,305 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,550 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,580 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,830 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,705 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 10,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1] Market Information Heavy - Truck Market - In October 2025, about 93,000 heavy - trucks were sold in China (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% from September and a year - on - year increase of about 40% from 66,400 in the same period last year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales of heavy - trucks in China exceeded 900,000, reaching 916,000, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. It is expected that the cumulative sales will exceed 1 million after November [2] Global Natural Rubber - According to the ANRPC September 2025 report, the global natural rubber production in September was expected to increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month; the consumption was expected to decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous month. In the first three quarters, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] China's Natural Rubber Imports - In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including technical - grade rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary - form rubber, mixed rubber, and composite rubber) were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [2] Thailand's Natural Rubber Exports - In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding composite rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the export of standard rubber totaled 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the export of smoked sheets was 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; the export of latex was 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total natural rubber exports to China were 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the export of standard rubber to China totaled 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; the export of smoked sheets to China totaled 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; the export of latex to China totaled 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [3] China's Automobile Production and Sales - In September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. For the first time in the same historical period, automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million, and the monthly year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for five consecutive months [4] China's Rubber - Tire Exports - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber - tire export volume reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires reached 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume reached 534.91 million, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. In the first three quarters, the export volume of automobile tires was 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [4] EU Passenger - Car Market - In September 2025, the EU passenger - car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [4] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On November 6, 2025, the RU basis was - 495 yuan/ton (+5), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 465 yuan/ton (-5), and the NR basis was 838.00 yuan/ton (-131.00). The price of whole latex was 14,550 yuan/ton (+200), the price of mixed rubber was 14,580 yuan/ton (+200), and the price of 3L spot was 15,000 yuan/ton (+50). The price of STR20 was 1,830 US dollars/ton (+10). The spread between whole latex and 3L was - 450 yuan/ton (+150); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 4,180 yuan/ton (+200) [6] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheets was 58.75 Thai baht/kg (+0.45), the price of Thai latex was 56.30 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.90 Thai baht/kg (-1.40), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.10 Thai baht/kg (+1.40) [7] 开工率 - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.37% (+0.03%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.89% (+0.77%) [8] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 447,668 tons (+15,439), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,056,012 tons (+17,061), the RU futures inventory was 120,900 tons (-3,120), and the NR futures inventory was 44,655 tons (+2,015) [8] Butadiene Rubber Spot and Spreads - On November 6, 2025, the BR basis was - 205 yuan/ton (-70), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 6,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of butadiene rubber BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 10,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,200 yuan/ton (+50), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 9,850 yuan/ton (+100), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 2,503 yuan/ton (+52) [9] 开工率 - The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 66.02% (-0.88%) [10] Inventory - The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 3,520 tons (-160), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,770 tons (-1,430) [11] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. The rubber price mainly fluctuates with the surrounding market atmosphere. The change in the rubber fundamentals may come from the supply side. With the increase in the arrival volume in China, the inventory has started to increase slightly, and it is expected to further increase in the future. However, the raw material prices in overseas main producing areas remain firm due to rainfall disruptions, providing strong cost support for natural rubber and limiting the short - term downward space. Currently, the domestic futures price valuation is still low, but the supply - demand drive is insufficient, so the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. - For BR, maintain a neutral stance. The decline in the upstream butadiene raw material price since late October in China has turned the production profit of butadiene rubber from loss to profit, partially offsetting the support from the recent concentrated maintenance of upstream butadiene rubber plants. With resilient downstream demand and a relatively low absolute price, the further downward space is expected to be limited. The supply - demand contradiction of butadiene rubber is not prominent, and it mainly fluctuates with the upstream raw materials. In the context of abundant butadiene supply, its weakness is expected to continue [12]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2) Core Viewpoint The market has support at the bottom, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4] 3) Summary by Directory Daily Hints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventory is decreasing, and tire operating rates are at a high level, presenting a neutral situation [4] - The spot price is 14,350, and the basis is -695, showing a bearish signal [4] - Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased week-on-week and year-on-year; Qingdao area inventory increased week-on-week and year-on-year, a neutral situation [4] - The 20-day line is downward, and the price is running below the 20-day line, a bearish signal [4] - The main positions are net short, and short positions are decreasing, a bearish signal [4] Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is high [4][6] - **Inventory**: Exchange inventory has been continuously decreasing, while Qingdao area inventory has rebounded [14][17] - **Import**: Import volume has rebounded [20] - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are at a record high for the same period [23][29][32] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2023 whole latex (non - deliverable) remained flat on November 6th [8] - **Basis**: The basis strengthened on November 6th [35] Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Likely to Fall**: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. - For methanol, with rising domestic production and imports, and weakening demand, the pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand leads to high enterprise inventories. The weak reality remains unchanged, and there is a possibility of further downward pressure on the market. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, with the price at a low level, low volatility, and a lack of fundamental drivers, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. There is limited upward momentum, and the downside space is also restricted. It is advisable to wait and see [7]. - For rubber, the price has rebounded as expected. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades opportunistically and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, the fundamentals show a weak situation with high supply, weak demand, and poor export prospects. Although the short - term valuation has declined to a low level, it is still difficult to reverse the situation. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium term [13]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the prices of both have declined. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and the price may stop falling temporarily [15][16]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has fallen. The price may bottom out, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [18][19]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has declined. With high supply pressure and weak demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [21][22]. - For PX, the load remains high, but downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. PXN is expected to be under pressure in November, and it is recommended to wait and see [24][25]. - For PTA, the supply - side maintenance is expected to increase, and there is a high expectation of inventory reduction in November. However, the processing fee expansion is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity of processing fee repair [26][28]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry fundamentals show high supply, increasing imports, and inventory accumulation. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [29][30]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 1.70 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.37%, at 460.40 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil in related refined oil futures rose 1.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.04%, at 2728.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil fell 8.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24%, at 3269.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.20 million barrels to 421.17 million barrels, a 1.25% increase; SPR replenished 0.50 million barrels to 409.60 million barrels, a 0.12% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 4.73 million barrels to 206.01 million barrels, a 2.24% decrease; diesel inventories decreased by 0.64 million barrels to 111.55 million barrels, a 0.57% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.08 million barrels to 21.89 million barrels, a 0.39% increase; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.28 million barrels to 41.70 million barrels, a 0.67% increase [2]. - **Strategy Views**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The Taicang price decreased by 2, Inner Mongolia increased by 15, and the price in southern Shandong remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 16 yuan, at 2125 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 45. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 6, at - 101 [3]. - **Strategy Views**: With rising domestic production and imports, and weakening demand, the pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand leads to high enterprise inventories. The weak reality remains unchanged, and there is a possibility of further downward pressure on the market. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The spot price in Shandong and Henan remained stable, while that in Hubei increased by 10. Most regions remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 11 yuan, at 1644 yuan, with a basis of - 74. The 1 - 5 spread was - 1, at - 83 [4]. - **Strategy Views**: With the price at a low level, low volatility, and a lack of fundamental drivers, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. There is limited upward momentum, and the downside space is also restricted. It is advisable to wait and see [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: As of November 6, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.54%, 0.21 percentage points higher than last week and 5.35 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of domestic semi - steel tires was 74.45%, 0.24 percentage points lower than last week and 4.37 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The export of semi - steel tires slowed down. As of November 2, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.056 million tons, a 1.7 - million - ton increase, a 1.6% increase. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 658,000 tons, a 3% increase; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 398,000 tons, a 0.4% decrease. The total spot inventory in the Qingdao area increased by 12,200 tons to 436,300 tons. In terms of spot prices, Thai standard mixed rubber was 145,350 (+200) yuan, STR20 was reported at 18,200 (+20) dollars, STR20 mixed was 1805 (+20) dollars, butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 6850 (+100) yuan, and cis - polybutadiene in North China was 98,700 (+100) yuan [10][11]. - **Strategy Views**: The price has rebounded as expected. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades opportunistically and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 8 yuan, at 4630 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4520 (-20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 110 (-12) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 303 (-2) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2400 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 870 (+70) yuan/ton, and ethylene was 740 (0) dollars/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.3%, a 1.7% increase; among them, the calcium carbide method was 77.4%, a 3.1% increase; the ethylene method was 80.2%, a 1.4% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 50.5%, a 0.7% increase. The factory inventory was 338,000 tons (+4000), and the social inventory was 1.03 million tons (-5000) [11]. - **Strategy Views**: The fundamentals show a weak situation with high supply, weak demand, and poor export prospects. Although the short - term valuation has declined to a low level, it is still difficult to reverse the situation. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium term [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The cost - side East China pure benzene was 5330 yuan/ton, a 68 - yuan/ton decrease; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5398 yuan/ton, a 68 - yuan/ton decrease; the pure benzene basis was - 68 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan expansion. The spot price of styrene was 6350 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan/ton decrease; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 6300 yuan/ton, a 21 - yuan decrease; the basis was 50 yuan/ton, a 79 - yuan weakening. The BZN spread was 89.5 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan decrease; the non - integrated EB device profit was - 497.7 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan increase; the EB continuous 1 - continuous 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan reduction. The upstream operating rate was 66.72%, a 2.53% decrease; the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 179,300 tons, a 13,700 - ton decrease. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.09%, a 0.68% decrease; the PS operating rate was 52.00%, a 1.80% decrease, the EPS operating rate was 62.24%, a 0.27% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 72.10%, a 0.70% decrease [15]. - **Strategy Views**: The prices of both have declined. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and the price may stop falling temporarily [15][16]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract was 6805 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan/ton decrease, and the spot price was 6875 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan/ton decrease, with a basis of 70 yuan/ton, a 41 - yuan weakening. The upstream operating rate was 83.3%, a 0.73% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 490,200 tons, a 74,200 - ton increase, and the trader inventory was 50,100 tons, a 300 - ton increase. The average downstream operating rate was 45%, a 0.37% decrease. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 81 yuan/ton, a 6 - yuan expansion [18]. - **Strategy Views**: The futures price has fallen. The price may bottom out, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [18][19]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract was 6471 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan/ton decrease, and the spot price was 6555 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan/ton decrease, with a basis of 84 yuan/ton, unchanged. The upstream operating rate was 78.55%, a 0.07% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 599,900 tons, a 4800 - ton increase, the trader inventory was 228,600 tons, a 15,000 - ton increase, and the port inventory was 64,600 tons, a 700 - ton decrease. The average downstream operating rate was 52.61%, a 0.24% increase. The LL - PP spread was 334 yuan/ton, an 11 - yuan expansion [21]. - **Strategy Views**: The futures price has declined. With high supply pressure and weak demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [21][22]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX01 contract increased by 170 yuan, at 6820 yuan, and PX CFR increased by 10 dollars, at 826 dollars. After conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, the basis was - 73 yuan (-92), and the 1 - 3 spread was - 4 yuan (+10). The PX load in China was 87%, a 1.1% increase; the Asian load was 78.1%, a 0.4% decrease. In terms of devices, Wushi Petrochemical in China restarted, Fujia Dahua was restarting, overseas, a 540,000 - ton device of Thailand's PTTG and Saudi Arabia's Satorp were under maintenance, and Taiwan's FCFC device was restarting. The PTA load was 76.4%, a 1.2% decrease. In terms of devices, Yisheng Dahua's load was restored, Zhongtai restarted, Dushan Energy's old device and Ineos were under maintenance, and Weilian Chemical reduced its load [24]. - **Strategy Views**: Currently, the PX load remains high, but downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. PXN is expected to be under pressure in November, and it is recommended to wait and see [24][25]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract increased by 88 yuan, at 4688 yuan, and the East China spot price increased by 35 yuan/ton, at 4540 yuan, with a basis of - 80 yuan (-3), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 62 yuan (-2). The PTA load was 76.4%, a 1.2% decrease. In terms of devices, Yisheng Dahua's load was restored, Zhongtai restarted, Dushan Energy's old device and Ineos were under maintenance, and Weilian Chemical reduced its load. The downstream load was 91.5%, a 0.2% decrease. In terms of devices, Jinqiao's 200,000 - ton slicing was under maintenance. The terminal texturing load increased by 2% to 88%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 75%. As of October 31, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.207 million tons, a 6000 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee decreased by 17 yuan to 114 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 24 yuan to 214 yuan [26]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - side maintenance is expected to increase, and there is a high expectation of inventory reduction in November. However, the processing fee expansion is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity of processing fee repair [26][28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract increased by 10 yuan, at 3924 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 2 yuan, at 3972 yuan, with a basis of 74 yuan (-3), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 80 yuan (+11). On the supply side, the ethylene glycol load was 72.4%, a 3.8% decrease, among which the synthetic gas method was 71.9%, an 11.5% decrease; the ethylene - based load was 72.7%, a 0.7% increase. In terms of synthetic gas devices, Yulin Chemical and Tianye reduced their loads, Sinochem and Yankuang were under maintenance, and Jianyuan and Tongliao Jinmei were restarting. In terms of petrochemicals, there were few device changes. The downstream load was 91.5%, a 0.2% decrease. In terms of devices, Jinqiao's 200,000 - ton slicing was under maintenance. The terminal texturing load increased by 2% to 88%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 75%. The import arrival forecast was 189,000 tons, and the East China departure on November 5 was 17,000 tons. The port inventory was 562,000 tons, a 39,000 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the profit of naphtha - based production was - 837 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 649 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 628 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged at 740 dollars, and the price

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - In October, the rubber futures prices showed a volatile trend. As of October 31, the main contract of Shanghai rubber closed at 15,090 yuan/ton, with a monthly cumulative increase of 5 yuan/ton and a growth rate of 0.03%. The INE 20 - rubber contract closed at 12,160 yuan/ton, with a monthly cumulative decrease of 70 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.57% [2] - In October, the rubber price fluctuated. Macro - policies were intensively introduced, and market sentiment expectations were repeated, increasing rubber price fluctuations. Globally, it was still in the high - yield period, with sufficient rubber supply and less weather disturbance. In the Chinese market, natural rubber supply was abundant, with a 4.4% year - on - year increase in supply from January to August. Downstream, domestic tire enterprises maintained a high operating rate, but high inventory limited their restocking enthusiasm. Bonded area inventory remained high without a turning point, and imports were at a relatively high level. In September, tire production and exports continued to grow year - on - year, automobile consumption was stable, and heavy - truck consumption increased significantly year - on - year for five consecutive months. Sino - US trade relations improved. Looking forward, from December, natural rubber tapping in China will gradually slow down, supply pressure will ease, consumption will be tepid, and policies will still have a supporting effect, so rubber prices may have upward momentum [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review - In August, rubber futures prices fluctuated upward. As of August 29, the main contract of Shanghai rubber closed at 15,860 yuan/ton, with a monthly cumulative increase of 480 yuan/ton and a growth rate of 3.12%. The INE 20 - rubber contract closed at 12,725 yuan/ton, with a monthly cumulative increase of 375 yuan/ton and a growth rate of 3.04% [8] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. ANRPC Slight Increase in Production from January to August, Abundant Domestic Supply - In August, Thailand's natural rubber production was 458,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.00%; Indonesia's production was 189,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.90%; Malaysia's production was 35,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.51%; Vietnam's production was 140,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.19%. In August, ANRPC's total production was 1.0787 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.25%. From January to August, ANRPC's total production was 6.8555 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.76% [12] 3.2.2. Tire Operating Rate at a High Level, Stable Growth in Tire Exports - In October, tire enterprises' operating rates were high. As of October 30, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 73.41%, and that of all - steel tire enterprises was 65.34%. In September, tire exports grew steadily. The export volume of automobile tires in China was 56.3 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 10.65% and a year - on - year increase of 3.74%. From January to September, the cumulative export volume of new pneumatic tires was 365.48 million pieces, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.64% [14] 3.2.3. Stable Growth in Automobile Production and Sales, Six Consecutive Months of Year - on - Year Growth in Heavy - Trucks - In September, China's automobile sales were 3.2264 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.86%. Among them, passenger car sales were 2.8585 million vehicles, and heavy - truck sales were 105,600 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 82.95%. Heavy - trucks had six consecutive months of year - on - year growth, with the growth rate expanding month by month [18] 3.3. Outlook for the Future - In October, rubber prices fluctuated. Macro - policies and market sentiment affected prices. Globally, supply was abundant, and in China, natural rubber supply was sufficient. Downstream, tire enterprises had high inventory. In September, tire production and exports increased, automobile consumption was stable, and heavy - truck consumption grew significantly. Sino - US trade relations improved. From December, rubber tapping in China will slow down, supply pressure will ease, and rubber prices may have upward momentum [23]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 10305 | 70 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 83941 | 55103 | | | 合成橡胶12-1价差(日,元/吨) 80 | -10 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 2990 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 10200 | -100 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 10200 | -50 | | | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | | | | | 10250 0 | | 10600 | 0 | | | 海(日,元/吨) 基差:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) -5 30 布伦特原油(日,美元/桶) | 东(日,元/吨) | | | | | 63.52 东北亚乙烯价格(日,美元/吨) 740 | -0.92 石脑 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content [1][2] 2. Report's Core View - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has shown a significant accumulation trend, with a slight de - stocking in bonded warehouses and a large accumulation in general trade warehouses. Overseas arrivals are increasing, but tire factories are cautious about high - priced raw materials, leading to an inventory accumulation inflection point. In terms of demand, the production of domestic tire maintenance enterprises has returned to normal, slightly increasing the overall capacity utilization rate. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,700 - 15,200, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,250 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,045 yuan/ton (down 75 yuan), and the 1 - 5 spread is 195 yuan (up 20 yuan). The closing price of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract is 12,130 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan), and the 12 - 1 spread is 195 yuan (down 15 yuan). The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - numbered rubber is 2,915 yuan (unchanged). The trading volume and net positions of the two contracts have changed, and the exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber decreased by 280 tons to 119,100 tons, while those of 20 - numbered rubber increased by 504 tons to 48,586 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of various types of rubber in the Shanghai market and other regions have changed. For example, the price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market is 14,350 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of Vietnam 3L is 14,950 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan). The prices of synthetic rubbers such as Qilu Petrochemical's SBR 1502 and BR 9000 have decreased by 300 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rubber and 20 - numbered rubber has also changed [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The reference prices of Thai raw rubber in the market have changed, with the prices of smoked sheets, films, and cup rubber decreasing, while the price of glue remains unchanged. The theoretical production profits of RSS3 and STR20 have decreased. The monthly import volumes of technically - classified natural rubber and mixed rubber have increased by 0.95 million tons and 4.91 million tons respectively [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires have decreased slightly. The inventory days of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong have decreased, and the monthly production of all - steel and semi - steel tires has increased by 110,000 and 2.19 million respectively [2] 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day and 40 - day volatilities of the underlying asset have changed, with the 20 - day volatility decreasing by 1.61 percentage points and the 40 - day volatility increasing by 0.35 percentage points. The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options have increased [2] 3.6 Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a 12% month - on - month decrease and a 40% year - on - year increase. From January to October, the cumulative sales exceeded 916,000 vehicles, a 22% year - on - year increase. As of November 2, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 447,700 tons, a 3.57% increase. As of November 6, the capacity utilization rates of semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises have changed [2] 3.7 View Summary - The inventory at Qingdao Port has accumulated, and the demand side has seen a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. The ru2601 and nr2601 contracts are expected to fluctuate within specific ranges [2] 3.8 Prompt Attention - Pay attention to the operating rate data of Longzhong tire sample enterprises on Thursday [2]

Market Overview - The rubber sector increased by 1.05% on November 6, with Zhen'an Technology leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4007.76, up 0.97%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13452.42, up 1.73% [1] Stock Performance - Zhen'an Technology (300767) closed at 21.39, with a rise of 2.84% and a trading volume of 104,400 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 220 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include: - Sanwei Co. (603033) at 11.44, up 1.96% [1] - Quecheng Co. (605183) at 19.41, up 1.94% [1] - Litong Technology (920225) at 39.18, up 1.90% [1] - Tiantie Technology (300587) at 7.41, up 1.65% [1] Capital Flow - The rubber sector experienced a net outflow of 68.88 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 51.99 million yuan [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors withdrawing funds while retail investors increased their positions [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Zhen'an Technology had a net inflow of 24.94 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 18.53 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Tongcheng New Materials (603650) saw a net inflow of 17.44 million yuan from institutional investors and a net outflow of 45.17 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Sanwei Co. (603033) had a net inflow of 6.71 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors withdrew 5.34 million yuan [3]