投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 铂把数据日报 国贸期货研究院 贵金属与新能源研究中心 投资咨询号: Z0013700 从业资格号:F3023916 注:因收盘时间不一致,铂、兜库存及持仓数据部分滞后。 1月30日，铭、纽价格整体大幅下挫：PT2606合约收跌11.79%至630.55元/克:PD2606合约收跌11.87%至46405元/克。此外，上周五 夜盘,外盘铂把价格继续大幅下跌,伦敦现货锐金盘中暴跌超24%,终根收2180.8美元/盎司,目内跌16.72%;伦敦现货投盘盘中暴跌超 20%，终损收771.美元/盎司。日内映14.69%。宏观层面，特朗普提名近什出任新美联随主席，国其相较于其它候选人更加鹰派,市场普 遍预期其不会采取大规模范松货币政策，同时派什的提名也缓解了市场对美联情独立世丧失的担忧，提振美元指数、美债收益率大幅 走强,加上资金的大规模流出,贵金属市场出现恐慌性抛售并发生了"踩踏式"下跌，钳、史亦不例外跟随暴跌。基本面方面,暂未 有较大变化,美国决定督援对关键矿产加征进口关税,缓解的、把的关税风险,未来需关注组织库存是否流出,若确认,可能会对其 上行空间炮成压制。综上。基于 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant decline in gold prices, attributed to the market's reaction to Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman candidate, which eased concerns about potential inflation risks and led to a market adjustment [2][3] - Gold prices experienced a sharp drop, with London gold falling from a recent high of 5600 USD to 4700 USD, marking a 16% decline, primarily due to the market's interpretation of Warsh's "hawkish" stance [3] - The market is currently in a wide-ranging fluctuation phase, with key support levels identified at 4585 and 4535, which are critical for short-term trading strategies [4] Group 2 - The nomination of Warsh is seen as a signal that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more cautious monetary policy to address potential inflation pressures, prompting investors to reassess asset risks and returns [2] - The extreme volatility in the gold market is expected to continue, driven by a temporary balance of bullish and bearish forces, with market sentiment playing a crucial role in short-term price movements [4] - Analysts suggest a trading strategy of "high short, low long" in response to the current market conditions, focusing on resistance levels at 4780 and 4710 for potential short positions, while considering support levels at 4585 and 4535 for long positions [4]

Core Viewpoint - The gold price has experienced a significant drop, falling below $4500 per ounce, with a daily decline exceeding 7% [5][11]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Multiple banks have issued urgent announcements in response to the sudden drop in gold prices [9]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange has taken emergency measures by significantly raising margin requirements for precious metal futures [9]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has also issued a sudden announcement amid the market turmoil [9]. Group 2: Price Movements - The current price of spot gold has fallen below the critical threshold of $4500 per ounce [5][11]. - The decline in gold prices follows a period of volatility, characterized by both sharp increases and decreases [9].

Group 1 - The volatility in gold and silver has caused significant disruptions in the commodity market, leading to liquidity shocks and margin calls among institutional investors, which in turn resulted in a sharp decline in the stock market [1] - The ongoing sell-off in precious metals reflects a combination of technical and emotional pressures, as noted by a strategist from Singapore [1] - Despite a price pullback, there remains a high sensitivity to the movements of the US dollar, yield repricing, and uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policies [1] Group 2 - Passive selling related to margin calls and triggered stop-loss orders has further exacerbated the downward trend in precious metal prices [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is releasing risks, and silver is falling from a high level. Copper is waiting for guidance with price fluctuations. Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation. Lead has weak supply and demand with price fluctuations. Aluminum's volatility is increasing, and attention should be paid to the equity market trend. Alumina's oscillation is converging, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Platinum should be wary of panic selling, and palladium is following a weak adjustment. Nickel is dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, with a game between fundamentals and speculative positions. Stainless steel has frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the nickel - iron expectation provides support at the bottom [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the closing prices of various gold and silver products all declined significantly. For example, the daily decline of Comex gold 2602 was 9.30%, and that of Comex silver 2602 was 26.37%. The night - trading prices also showed large drops, with the night - trading decline of Shanghai silver 2602 reaching 17.00% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of some products increased, while the positions decreased. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai gold 2602 increased by 372,766, and the position decreased by 24,521 [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of some products decreased. For example, the inventory of Shanghai silver decreased by 26,940 kg, and the inventory of Comex silver decreased by 3,431,295 ounces [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman, which led to a sharp rise in the US dollar and a sell - off of gold and silver. The US Senate passed a $1.2 trillion government spending bill, but a short - term government shutdown was inevitable. The CME raised the trading margins for gold and silver [4][7]. Copper - **Price Performance**: The closing prices of Shanghai copper and London copper both declined. The daily decline of Shanghai copper's main contract was 4.98%, and that of London copper 3M electronic disk was 4.25% [8]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai copper index increased by 606,369, and the position decreased by 29,840. The trading volume of London copper 3M electronic disk decreased by 52,697, and the position increased by 1,459 [8]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The inventory of Shanghai copper increased by 5,223 tons, and the inventory of London copper decreased by 1,100 tons. The注销仓单 ratio of London copper was 23.89%, with a decrease of 0.87% [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump nominated a new Fed chairman, and some copper mines in Chile had production problems. For example, the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in northern Chile basically stopped production, and Lundin Mining lowered its 2026 copper production guidance [8][10]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: The closing prices of Shanghai zinc and London zinc both declined. The daily decline of Shanghai zinc's main contract was 0.44%, and that of London zinc 3M electronic disk was 2.22% [11]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai zinc's main contract increased by 172,422, and the position decreased by 8,962. The trading volume of London zinc decreased by 23,075, and the position increased by 5,365 [11]. - **News**: The US Senate passed a $1.2 trillion government spending bill, but a short - term government shutdown was inevitable [12][13]. Lead - **Price Performance**: The closing prices of Shanghai lead and London lead both declined. The daily decline of Shanghai lead's main contract was 1.86%, and that of London lead 3M electronic disk was 0.77% [14]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai lead's main contract increased by 34,910, and the position decreased by 2,608. The trading volume of London lead decreased by 4,770, and the position increased by 3,394 [14]. - **News**: Trump nominated a new Fed chairman, and some candidates called for interest rate cuts [14]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: The closing prices of Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, Shanghai alumina, and aluminum alloy all showed certain changes. For example, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum's main contract decreased by 1,030 compared with T - 1 [16]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume and position of each product also changed. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai aluminum's main contract increased by 254,608 compared with T - 1, and the position decreased by 57,628 [16]. - **News**: The global AI computing power construction has led to a surge in transformer orders, and Wall Street is focusing on Warsh's potential Fed policies [18]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price Performance**: The closing prices of platinum and palladium products all declined. For example, the decline of platinum futures 2606 was 11.70%, and the decline of palladium futures 2606 was 11.88% [19]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of some products increased, and the positions decreased. For example, the trading volume of Guangzhou platinum increased by 12,277, and the position decreased by 2,505 [19]. - **News**: The US federal government entered a partial "shutdown" state, and there were various international news such as Russia - US talks and SpaceX's satellite deployment plan [22]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: The closing prices of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel's main contracts both declined. The closing price of Shanghai nickel's main contract decreased by 7,470 compared with T - 1, and that of stainless steel's main contract decreased by 445 [25]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai nickel's main contract increased by 229,168 compared with T - 1, and the trading volume of stainless steel's main contract increased by 167,856 [25]. - **Industry Chain**: The prices and spreads of various products in the nickel industry chain changed. For example, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged, and the nickel plate - high - nickel iron spread decreased by 20 [25]. - **News**: The Indonesian government has taken a series of measures, such as suspending the issuance of new smelting licenses, revising the benchmark price formula of nickel ore, and adjusting the nickel ore production target. There were also news about steel product export license management and ship accidents [25][26][28].

2026.02.02 本文字数：2119，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 齐琦 根据通知，若2026年2月2日（星期一）Ag（T+D）合约出现单边市情况，则自收盘清算时起，该合约 的保证金水平从20%调整为26%，下一交易日起涨跌幅度限制从19%调整为25%。若未出现单边市情 况，则Ag（T+D）合约保证金水平和涨跌幅度限制维持不变。 黄金白银跌势延续。 截至发稿，现货白银失守75美元/盎司，跌超11%。现货黄金开盘下挫，现报4703美元/盎司，盘中最低 触及每盎司4583美元。 2月2日，国内市场"接棒"国际贵金属市场史诗级暴跌，国内商品期市午盘大面积收跌，沪银、钯、铂跌 停，沪金跌11.68%；基本金属全部下跌，沪锡跌停；能源品、黑色系、化工品纷纷跟跌。 A股市场上，贵金属、有色板块亦大面积重挫，中金黄金（600489.SH）、四川黄金（001337.SZ）、白 银有色（601212.SH）、豫光金铅（600531.SH）等多股跌停。黄金股ETF、黄金股票ETF开盘跌停，国 投白银LOF今日复牌后一字跌停。 "在这一急涨与暴跌交织的巨震面前，任何点位测算都显得苍白且无力，"中金公司最新发布的研究报告 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing significant declines, with both gold and silver prices dropping sharply, indicating potential for further price volatility and a possible second bottom in the market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the report, spot silver has fallen below $75 per ounce, down over 11%, while spot gold opened lower at $4,703 per ounce, hitting a low of $4,583 during trading [1] - The domestic market mirrored the international precious metals market's dramatic drop, with major declines in commodity futures, including a 11.68% drop in Shanghai gold and trading halts in silver, palladium, and platinum [1] - A-share market also saw significant losses in precious metals and non-ferrous sectors, with stocks like Zhongjin Gold and Sichuan Gold hitting trading limits [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analyst Wu Zijie from Jinrui Futures suggests that there is a possibility of a second bottom and ongoing volatility in gold and silver prices [1] - Key market focus points include the upcoming congressional hearing for Federal Reserve nominee Kevin Walsh, developments regarding the U.S. government shutdown, and the forthcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data [1]

黄金白银跌势延续。 截至发稿，现货白银失守75美元/盎司，跌超11%。现货黄金开盘下挫，现报4703美元/盎司，盘中最低 触及每盎司4583美元。 A股市场上，贵金属、有色板块亦大面积重挫，中金黄金（600489.SH）、四川黄金（001337.SZ）、白 银有色（601212.SH）、豫光金铅（600531.SH）等多股跌停。黄金股ETF、黄金股票ETF开盘跌停，国 投白银LOF今日复牌后一字跌停。 "在这一急涨与暴跌交织的巨震面前，任何点位测算都显得苍白且无力，"中金公司最新发布的研究报告 分析称，金价显然已超越单纯的基本面主导，传统的黄金测算模型如实际利率已失效。影响更大的地缘 与货币体系重构因素，目前没有具体兑现时间，短期留给市场想象空间。投资者需警惕，黄金急涨急跌 由情绪和资金驱动，节奏难以把握。 大面积跌停，交易所紧急通知 越来越多的投机者被限制交易。深交所上周五表示，部分投资者在"国投白银LOF"等基金产品交易过程 中存在影响基金正常交易秩序的异常交易行为，对相关投资者采取了暂停交易等自律监管措施。 早前（1月26日），上海期货交易所发现3组16名客户在锡、白银期货品种交易中涉嫌未申报实际控制关 ...

2月2日早盘，A股低开震荡，截至午间收盘，沪指跌1.32%，深成指跌1.41%，创业板指跌1.18%，北证50指数跌1.12%。市场成交呈萎缩趋势，全市场 3500只个股下跌。 其中上证指数盘中跌破4100点大关，包括上证指数在内的多个主要市场指数盘中跌幅超过1%。 贵金属板块开盘大跌，四川黄金（001337）、中金黄金（600489）等10余股跌停。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | 总市值1▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600519 | 贵州茅台 | 1438.00 | 2.64% | 18008亿 | | 000858 | 五 | 107.81 | 2.68% | 4185亿 | | 600809 | 山西汾酒 | 174.70 | 2.16% | 2131亿 | | 000568 | 泸州老窖 | 122.65 | 1.45% | 1805亿 | | 002304 | 洋河股份 | 56.01 | 1.25% | 844亿 | | 600600 | 青岛啤酒 | 62.01 | 3.21% | 735亿 | | 000596 | 古井贡酒 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman has led to significant market reactions, including a stronger dollar and rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields, while gold prices have experienced notable declines, raising discussions about a potential "gold bubble" [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Walsh's nomination, the market quickly adjusted its expectations regarding future monetary policy, interpreting Walsh's critical stance on the Fed's balance sheet as a signal for tightening [1] - The dollar strengthened and long-term U.S. Treasury yields increased, putting pressure on precious metals, with gold prices dropping below $4,800 per ounce [1] - Gold's recent price volatility reflects a significant release of profit-taking from high levels, with a nearly historical daily decline observed on January 30 [1] Group 2: Valuation Concerns - Prior to the gold price fluctuations, concerns about gold's valuation were already emerging, with Cathie Wood of Ark Invest noting that the ratio of gold's market cap to the U.S. M2 money supply has reached extreme levels not seen since the Great Depression, indicating a potential trend reversal [2] - Wood emphasized that the current macroeconomic environment does not support such high gold valuations, especially if the dollar enters a recovery phase, which would exert further pressure on gold prices [2] - Robin Brooks, a senior researcher at Brookings, echoed similar sentiments, suggesting that the recent price increases in precious metals are primarily driven by retail trading rather than institutional investment, indicating bubble-like characteristics [2] Group 3: Future Policy Outlook - As gold prices retreat, the market is reassessing potential policy combinations from the Federal Reserve, with Walsh's framework prioritizing balance sheet reduction, which could tighten financial conditions and create upward pressure on long-term rates [3] - Analysts noted that if the Fed reduces support for the bond market, long-term rates may rise, structurally constraining gold and other non-yielding assets [3] - Despite Walsh's nomination, it is important to note that he holds only one vote on the Federal Open Market Committee, and significant policy shifts are unlikely in the short term, although uncertainty around policy has increased [3] Group 4: Overall Market Sentiment - The nomination of Walsh has prompted a reevaluation of the Fed's future policy direction, serving as a key trigger for gold's decline from recent highs [4] - In an environment of a stabilizing dollar and rising rate expectations, the previous logic of gold's unilateral rise is being reconsidered [4] - The interplay of policy uncertainty, market sentiment, and macroeconomic data is expected to maintain high volatility in precious metals and risk assets in the short term, with market pricing shifting towards a more cautious balance [4]