行业评级：买入（维持） 证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 16 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 机械行业周报 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -3.3 -5.2 16.5 绝对收益 -2.8 5.0 33.1 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 24/11 25/01 25/03 25/05 25/07 25/09 机械设备(申万) 沪深300 关注锂电专用设备、机床工具、机器人 相关研究： 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：轩鹏程 证书编号：S0500521070003 Tel：(8621) 50295321 Email：xuanpc@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 ——机械行业周报（2025.11.10~2025.11.14） 核心要点： ❑ 锂电专用设备：10 月我国新能源汽车销量同比增长 19.9% 根据 Wind 数据，2025 年 10 月，我国新能源汽车销量约 171.5 万 辆，同比增长 19.9%，1-10 月我国新能源汽车总销量约 1294.3 万辆， 同比增长 32.7% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical equipment industry [1] Core Views - The report is optimistic about the acceleration of downstream capacity expansion and the solid-state catalytic lithium battery equipment, continuing to recommend AI equipment such as gas turbines and liquid cooling devices [1] - Solid-state battery technology is advancing towards commercialization, benefiting equipment manufacturers as major manufacturers are expected to open equipment tenders for pilot lines [1] - The demand for gas turbines is expected to rise due to the expansion of AI data centers, with domestic manufacturers likely to benefit from this trend [2] - Liquid cooling technology is becoming essential for data centers, with significant growth expected in the market for liquid cooling solutions [3] Summary by Sections Recommended Companies - The report suggests a focus on companies such as Northern Huachuang, SANY Heavy Industry, and others in various sectors including semiconductor equipment, engineering machinery, and lithium battery equipment [1][13] Investment Highlights - **Lithium Battery Equipment**: The solid-state battery is moving towards mass production, creating new demand for equipment across all stages of production [1] - **Gas Turbines**: The demand for gas turbines is driven by the need for reliable power sources for AI data centers, with significant opportunities for domestic brands like Jereh and Haomai Technology [2] - **Liquid Cooling Equipment**: The report highlights the rapid growth in AI computing capital expenditures, with liquid cooling technology being crucial for managing heat in data centers [3] Industry Trends - The report notes a significant increase in the shipment of AI server racks, with expectations of continued high growth in the coming years [3] - The liquid cooling market is projected to expand significantly, driven by the need for energy-efficient cooling solutions in data centers [3] Financial Projections - The report provides financial forecasts for companies in the sector, indicating expected growth in net profits for various firms over the next few years [19][43]

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing continuous improvement in operational quality, with operating cash flow reaching a historical high, indicating potential valuation uplift driven by industry demand and global competitiveness [1]. Investment Highlights - The domestic engineering machinery sector is at the beginning of a cyclical improvement, with overseas markets expected to see structural enhancements. The company's strong product capabilities and global layout position it well for future demand resilience and competitiveness, leading to valuation increases. Projected EPS for 2025/2026/2027 are 0.96 CNY, 1.22 CNY, and 1.45 CNY respectively. A target price of 26.88 CNY is set based on a 28x PE for 2025, with a recommendation to accumulate [2]. Performance Growth - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 66.104 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 13.27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.136 billion CNY, up 46.58% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, revenue was 21.324 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 10.48%, and net profit of 1.919 billion CNY, up 48.18% year-on-year. The gross profit margin and net profit margin for Q1-3 2025 were 27.62% and 11.01%, respectively, with slight year-on-year changes [3]. Operational Quality Improvement - The net operating cash flow for Q1-3 2025 was 14.547 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 17.55%. In Q3 2025, the net operating cash flow was 4.413 billion CNY, up 12.07% year-on-year. The company has effectively managed its expense ratios, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios showing positive trends [4]. International Market Expansion - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved overseas sales revenue of 26.302 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 11.72%, with overseas revenue accounting for 60.26% of total revenue. The gross margin for overseas main business improved to 31.18%, driven by price adjustments, product structure optimization, and cost reduction measures. The company launched over 30 new energy products, expanding its electric product matrix [4].

Core Insights - The article highlights the achievements of the Guangxi Liugong Machinery Co., Ltd. and its skilled technician, Pang Qiwen, who has been recognized as a "Great Craftsman" in China, emphasizing the importance of precision and innovation in manufacturing [1][3]. Group 1: Achievements and Innovations - Pang Qiwen has led over 20 technical innovations and transformed more than 80 results, generating economic benefits exceeding 50 million yuan [3]. - The company has significantly improved its manufacturing capabilities, achieving a processing precision of 0.005 millimeters and moving towards complete domestic production of key components that were previously reliant on imports [3][4]. - The transition from outdated equipment to modern CNC machines allows one operator to manage multiple machines, indicating a shift towards automation in the factory [3][4]. Group 2: Skills Development and Training - The company emphasizes continuous skill enhancement for workers to keep pace with modern production demands, aligning with international standards [4][6]. - The local government supports the establishment of innovation studios and skill master studios, which play a crucial role in technical problem-solving and skill transmission [6][7]. - As of October this year, the total number of high-skilled talents in Liuzhou reached 151,100, with 54 recognized as national technical experts [7]. Group 3: Cultural and Strategic Initiatives - Liuzhou has implemented a "Talent Strong City" strategy to enhance the training of skilled workers, fostering a culture that respects labor and craftsmanship [7]. - The city has designated April 26 as "Liuzhou Craftsman Day" and organized various vocational skill competitions to promote skill advancement among industrial workers [7].

Investment Strategy Report Summary Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, with October's CPI showing a year-on-year increase for the first time in several months, indicating a potential shift in inflation trends [1][2][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining liquidity in the financial system, with significant increases in social financing and RMB loans, suggesting a supportive environment for economic growth [1][23][26]. News and Commentary - In October, the CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year, with core CPI increasing by 1.2%, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth [1][11]. - The PPI saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, the first rise this year, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.1%, indicating improving supply-demand dynamics [1][15][16]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reported a total social financing increase of 30.9 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2025, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1][26][27]. - Real estate prices in major cities continued to decline, with new residential prices in first-tier cities dropping by 0.3% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year [1][31][32]. Market Overview - The domestic securities market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a slight increase of 0.003%, while other indices like the ChiNext Index fell by 3.01% [2][36]. - Traditional industries are showing signs of recovery, while technology sectors are under pressure, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [2][34]. Investment Recommendations - **Technology Sector**: Companies focused on AI, semiconductor chips, robotics, and deep-sea technology are expected to benefit from the current policy direction aimed at fostering new productive forces [3][45]. - **Non-Banking Financials**: Brokerages may benefit from a slow bull market, while insurance companies could see improved returns on long-term assets [3][45]. - **Precious Metals**: Given the geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is expected to grow [3][45]. - **Energy Storage**: The energy storage sector is projected to have significant growth potential driven by policy support [3][45]. - **Machinery**: With the recovery of manufacturing activities post-overseas interest rate cuts, sectors like construction machinery and heavy trucks are recommended for investment [3][46]. - **Domestic Demand**: There is a focus on boosting consumption to expand effective domestic demand, with expectations for increased consumer spending [3][47].

Group 1: Core Insights - The conference highlighted significant complementary opportunities between China and Saudi Arabia in the fields of renewable energy and infrastructure, emphasizing the need for long-term capital to address challenges such as financing, standard differences, and cultural adaptation [1] - Saudi Arabia is experiencing substantial growth opportunities in infrastructure and renewable energy, with an increasing integration of renewable energy into the grid and a demand for smart meter installations [1][2] - ACWA Power is advancing a $114 billion green hydrogen project, with Chinese companies involved in 50% of the projects, showcasing the importance of Chinese technology and execution capabilities in the region [2][3] Group 2: Challenges and Opportunities - Chinese companies face challenges in the Saudi market, including financing access, legal and cultural adaptation, and geopolitical influences, with a need for collaboration with local firms to navigate these issues [3][6] - The Saudi Vision 2030 initiative is driving demand for engineering equipment and services, leading to rapid growth for companies like SANY Group in the region [5] - The long-term nature of Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) presents risks related to policy and market price fluctuations, necessitating strategic partnerships to manage these risks effectively [7] Group 3: Future Directions - The focus for Chinese enterprises in Saudi Arabia includes upgrading the grid system, establishing AI data centers, and exploring seawater desalination solutions through renewable technologies [8] - ACWA Power is actively exploring new business areas such as seawater desalination, green hydrogen, and energy storage, with ongoing discussions for at least eight green hydrogen projects with Chinese partners [8][9] - The collaboration between Saudi Arabia and China in the green hydrogen sector is expected to grow, with ACWA Power's investment in China projected to increase significantly in the coming years [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, indicating that the industry is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [50]. Core Insights - The mechanical equipment industry has experienced a decline of 1.75% in the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.58 percentage points, ranking 27th among 31 industries [2][13]. - Year-to-date, the mechanical equipment sector has increased by 33.14%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 13.65 percentage points, ranking 7th among 31 industries [13][27]. - The report highlights the ongoing technological innovations leading to industry upgrades, particularly in the electrification and dexterous hand segments of engineering machinery [4][46]. Summary by Sections Market Review - As of November 13, 2025, the mechanical equipment sector has seen a 1.75% decline in the last two weeks, with the general equipment sector showing the highest increase of 0.40% among its sub-sectors [2][21]. - The top three performing stocks in the mechanical equipment sector over the past two weeks are Huafeng Co., World Co., and Jikai Co., with increases of 46.59%, 40.02%, and 36.22% respectively [20][22]. Valuation - The current PE TTM for the mechanical equipment sector is 31.51 times, with sub-sectors showing varied valuations: General Equipment at 43.79 times, Specialized Equipment at 31.81 times, and Automation Equipment at 49.06 times [3][25]. Industry News - The report notes that the demand for engineering machinery is expected to be supported by the commencement of major national projects and accelerated funding [5][46]. - Exports of engineering machinery products have shown significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 29.78% in September [5][46]. Company Announcements - The report suggests focusing on companies like Huichuan Technology and Green Harmonic, which are positioned well in the market due to their strong competitive advantages and growth potential [44][47].

Core Insights - The engineering machinery sector experienced a decline of 1.04% on November 14, with Jin Dao Technology leading the losses [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3990.49, down 0.97%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13216.03, down 1.93% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the engineering machinery sector included: - Huadong Heavy Machine (002685) with a closing price of 7.81, up 6.40% on a trading volume of 963,100 shares and a turnover of 744 million [1] - Tietuo Machinery (920706) closed at 25.35, up 4.80% with a trading volume of 77,700 shares and a turnover of 197 million [1] - Changling Hydraulic (6885509) closed at 63.38, up 3.56% with a trading volume of 15,300 shares and a turnover of 95.99 million [1] - Major decliners included: - Jin Dao Technology (301279) closed at 28.15, down 4.25% with a trading volume of 32,400 shares and a turnover of 92.63 million [2] - Weiman Sealing (301161) closed at 33.90, down 2.92% with a trading volume of 33,900 shares and a turnover of 117 million [2] - Liu Gong (000528) closed at 11.37, down 2.74% with a trading volume of 321,300 shares and a turnover of 36.9 million [2] Capital Flow - The engineering machinery sector saw a net outflow of 250 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 176 million [2] - The capital flow for key stocks showed: - Huadong Heavy Machine had a net inflow of 126 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 18.7 million from retail investors [3] - Jin Dao Technology experienced a net outflow of 30.82 million from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 6.47 million [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing an upward trend with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking a 10-year high at 4030.40 points, leading to discussions on whether investors should switch sectors as the year-end approaches [1] Market Trends - The market is currently in a policy vacuum period, with strong sectors like semiconductors, AI, and chips showing lackluster performance recently [1] - Historical patterns indicate that value stocks such as banks, non-bank financials, and food and beverage sectors have a win rate exceeding 70% during the year-end period (November-December) [3] - The banking sector saw a 9.36% increase in December 2024, while technology sectors like computers and electronics gained a 15% increase in January 2023 [3] Sector Performance - The Consumer sector, particularly the liquor segment, has shown strong performance despite pressure from fundamentals after the third-quarter reports [1] - The China Securities Dividend Index tends to perform well before year-end, indicating a potential shift in market focus [1] Investment Strategies - Two key investment tracks are highlighted: 1. **Cyclical Recovery in Undervalued Industries**: Traditional industries are seeing improvements in supply-demand dynamics, with sectors like white goods, engineering machinery, and commercial vehicles being identified as having global competitive advantages [6] 2. **Defensive High-Dividend Strategies**: High-dividend assets are viewed as a stabilizing force in investment portfolios, particularly in uncertain market conditions [10] Fund Performance - The China Securities Major Consumer Index has nearly doubled in size since 2023, with the Huatai-PineBridge China Securities Major Consumer ETF leading with a scale exceeding 20 billion [7] - The demand for long-term dividend investments remains strong, driven by the ongoing asset shortage in the banking sector [11] Index and Fund Recommendations - The S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend Index and the Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index are recommended for investors seeking stable growth and risk diversification [12][13]

Core Insights - The Chinese construction machinery industry has been experiencing a significant upturn since 2025, driven by both domestic and international demand [1] - The issuance of the Fuguo Fund's construction machinery ETF on November 14 provides investors with an efficient tool to capitalize on this industry opportunity [1] Domestic Demand - Excavator sales in China increased by 21.50% year-on-year from January to September 2025, indicating a clear recovery trend [2] - This growth is attributed to increased infrastructure investment, particularly in large-scale projects like water conservancy, and the release of demand for equipment upgrades due to national policies [2] - The expansion of application scenarios, such as high-standard farmland construction, is driving the penetration of small excavators into new fields like agriculture and municipal projects [2] Electrification Trend - The penetration rate of electric loaders reached 23% in the first three quarters of 2025, with electric excavators making breakthroughs in various applications [2] - The industry's electrification is expected to initiate a new growth cycle, supported by rising environmental standards and decreasing technology costs [2] International Market Growth - From 2015 to 2024, China's excavator export volume has seen a compound annual growth rate of 38%, driven by the Belt and Road Initiative and improvements in product performance and service systems [3] - There remains significant potential for Chinese construction machinery to penetrate high-end markets in Europe and the U.S., with the global electrification trend providing new opportunities for Chinese companies [3] Investment Value - The Fuguo Fund's construction machinery ETF tracks the CSI Construction Machinery Theme Index, which has shown a cumulative return of 136.32% since its base date, outperforming major broad-based indices [4] - The top ten constituent stocks of the index account for over 70% of its weight, including leading companies like Sany Heavy Industry and XCMG, which are all valued at over 100 billion [4] - The global construction machinery market is highly concentrated, with the top 50 companies generating sales of $237.6 billion in 2024, and domestic leaders are transitioning to a high-end manufacturing sector characterized by globalization, electrification, and intelligence [4] Conclusion - The construction machinery industry is currently benefiting from a dual drive of domestic recovery and accelerated international expansion, alongside the electrification transformation, highlighting its investment value [5]