Company Overview - Tianyu Biological Technology Co., Ltd. is located in Yangpu District, Shanghai, established on June 21, 2000, and listed on March 27, 2017 [2] - The company's main business includes landscape greening engineering design, construction, and maintenance; municipal public engineering construction; environmental comprehensive governance; river and lake pollution control; soil pollution control; and seedling planting and sales [2] - Revenue composition: 72.29% from pig farming, 19.78% from ecological landscape engineering, 3.89% from red yeast products, 3.17% from photovoltaic power generation, and 0.87% from other sources [2] - Tianyu Biological is classified under the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, specifically in pig farming [2] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 412 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.62%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.82 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73.68% [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 34.54 million yuan, with no dividends distributed in the last three years [3] Stock Performance - As of September 19, Tianyu Biological's stock price was 9.01 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 2.614 billion yuan [1] - Year-to-date, the stock price has increased by 11.93%, but it has decreased by 16.50% over the last five trading days [1] - The stock has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" three times this year, with the most recent appearance on September 16, where net buying amounted to 1.1632 million yuan [1]

Report Information - Report Date: September 19, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, in September, the planned sales volume of sample breeding enterprises was 25.7 million heads, a 3.92% increase from the actual output in August, and the daily average increase was 7.39%. The slaughter volume may continue to increase significantly, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens remains high. In the long term, the pig slaughter before the Spring Festival may still show a slight increase. On the demand side, the price difference between fat and standard pigs has slightly widened, the fattening cost is still low, and the current second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. The overall supply - demand is loose, and the price is still weak. In the futures market, the supply of pigs before the Spring Festival is expected to increase slightly. Although the supply - demand margin of the 2511 and 2601 contracts may improve, they are mainly weak due to the current large spot supply pressure [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 18th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened lower, then rose and fell back, and fluctuated downwards, closing with a negative line. The highest was 12,965 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,820 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,830 yuan/ton, a 1.72% decrease from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 13,438 lots to 247,934 lots [6] - **Spot Market**: On the 18th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 12.78 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.17 yuan/kg from the previous day [6] 2. Industry News - As of September 11, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 54 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 45 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 175.8 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 63 yuan/head [8][10] 3. Data Overview - **15kg Piglet Price**: In the week of September 11, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 394 yuan/head, a decrease of 32 yuan/head from the previous week [13] - **Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs**: In the week of September 11, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.13 yuan/jin, a weekly decrease of 0.06 yuan/jin [13] - **Fattening Cost**: The cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg was 13.18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.24 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 13.52 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.17 yuan/kg from the previous week [13] - **Slaughtering Enterprise Operating Rate**: In the week of September 11, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 31.40%, a 0.13 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 4.15 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The weekly operating rate fluctuated between 31.20% and 31.71% [13] - **National Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week of September 11, the national average slaughter weight of pigs was 128.32 kg, a 0.09 - kg increase from the previous week, a 0.07% increase month - on - month, and a 2.36 - kg increase from the same period last year, a 1.84% increase year - on - year [13]

Core Insights - In August 2025, major listed pig farming companies in China reported a total sales volume of 15.35 million pigs, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.21% and a month-on-month increase of 6.91% [2][6][7] - The total revenue for these companies in August 2025 was 23.52 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 15.42% but a slight month-on-month increase of 0.88% [6][12] Sales Volume Analysis - The leading company in terms of sales volume was Muyuan Foods, with 7 million pigs sold, followed by Wens Foodstuffs and New Hope, each selling over 1.3 million pigs [2][9] - Companies such as Zhengbang Technology and Lihua Co. saw their sales volume growth exceed 100% year-on-year [7][11] - Compared to July, companies like Zhenghong Technology and Dongrui Co. experienced a slowdown in sales growth, while Lihua Co. and Dabeinong saw increases of 40 percentage points or more [7][12] Revenue Analysis - The revenue figures indicate that companies like Shennong Group, Jingji Agricultural, and New Hope experienced revenue declines exceeding 30% year-on-year [2][12] - Muyuan Foods was the only company to exceed 10 billion yuan in revenue for August, with a total of 11.85 billion yuan, despite a year-on-year decline of 12.3% [13] - Zhengbang Technology and Lihua Co. reported revenue growth rates exceeding 40% year-on-year, while other companies generally faced revenue declines [12][13] Price Trends - The average transaction price for pigs in the national market has been relatively stable around 15 yuan per kilogram since the beginning of 2025, but in August 2025, it dropped below 14 yuan per kilogram, marking a significant year-on-year decline [3][6]

Group 1 - Since 2025, the price of live pigs has remained below 15 yuan/kg, with August sales prices mostly fluctuating between 13 yuan/kg and 14 yuan/kg, indicating a stabilization in prices [1] - Leading companies like Muyuan Foods are focusing on technological innovation and management optimization, achieving a gradual decrease in breeding costs in the first half of the year [1] - New Hope Liuhe reported that in July, the complete breeding cost for its western and central teams dropped to around 12 yuan/kg, with some areas even below this threshold, highlighting their focus on feed and pig industries [1] Group 2 - Juxing Agriculture has maintained a focus on pig breeding, with a breeding cost of approximately 6.16 yuan/jin in the first half of 2025, emphasizing innovation in key technologies [2] - The industry is experiencing increasing differentiation, with cost control and supply chain extension becoming effective strategies for leading companies to enhance competitiveness [2] - As of the end of July, the national breeding sow inventory was 40.42 million heads, slightly above the normal level, indicating ongoing adjustments in supply and demand dynamics [2] Group 3 - Research from Shengan Securities suggests that policy guidance may lead to capacity reduction and a positive impact on pig prices due to upcoming demand peaks during festivals and the Spring Festival [3] - The industry is expected to rely more on efficiency improvements rather than incremental expansion, with government focus on sow inventory to prevent supply-demand imbalances [3] - Leading companies' scale and technological advantages are crucial for driving high-quality industry development, with production management optimization and cost reduction being key factors for profitability [3]

Summary of the Conference Call for Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. Industry Overview - The swine farming industry in China is experiencing a significant shift towards increased scale, with the proportion of smallholders decreasing from approximately 60% a decade ago to 30% currently, leading to reduced capacity fluctuations and price volatility [5][6] - The Ministry of Agriculture has indicated that the efficiency of sow production is improving while consumption remains stable or declines slightly, necessitating a reduction in sow inventory to ensure high-quality development [6] Company Insights - Muyuan Foods has significantly reduced its pig farming costs through self-built breeding farms and genetic upgrades, achieving a cost advantage of 2-3 RMB compared to competitors like Wens, Shennong, and Dekang, thereby enhancing profitability [2][4] - The company has seen a substantial decrease in capital expenditures, from 46 billion RMB in 2020 to below 10 billion RMB by 2025, with a long-term capital expenditure average expected to be around 5 billion RMB, resulting in a large amount of free cash flow [2][4][8] - The company plans to maintain a long-term dividend payout ratio of 60%, with projected net profits reaching 35 billion RMB based on current profit levels of 300 RMB per pig and 100 RMB per piglet, indicating a minimum dividend capacity of 20 billion RMB [2][7] Future Development Strategy - Muyuan Foods is focusing on expanding into overseas markets while domestic operations will serve as a significant source of free cash flow, with long-term output expected to stabilize around 90 million pigs, including 80 million market pigs and 10 million piglets [2][7] - The company’s valuation will be determined by the market, with potential yields estimated at 4% to 5.5% [7] Historical Performance - Since its listing in 2014, Muyuan Foods has experienced rapid growth, with its market capitalization increasing from 8 billion RMB to over 400 billion RMB at its peak in 2021 [3][8] - The company has improved its balance sheet through disease prevention technology adjustments and cost control, leading to significant free cash flow and the ability to provide substantial dividends [3][9]

Group 1: Banking and Financial Products - Several private banks, including Suzhou Bank and Huari Bank, have launched large-denomination certificates of deposit with interest rates exceeding 2%, contrasting with the declining rates of state-owned and joint-stock banks [1] - Huari Bank introduced two products with interest rates of 2.15% for 18-month deposits and 2.35% for 2-year deposits, both requiring a minimum subscription of 200,000 yuan [1] - The high-interest products are primarily aimed at customer acquisition and enhancing retail market competitiveness, rather than being a sustainable long-term strategy [1] Group 2: Agriculture and Livestock - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has mandated leading pig farming companies to reduce production capacity, including cutting the number of breeding sows and controlling the weight of pigs at around 120 kg [2] - This marks the first time the National Development and Reform Commission has explicitly required a reduction in the number of breeding sows, indicating a shift in regulatory focus [2] - Financial measures are being implemented alongside production controls, such as restricting credit for expanding pig farming capacity and reducing subsidies that encourage production growth [2] Group 3: Technology and Robotics - The Ministry of Science and Technology is promoting the accelerated application of humanoid robots in sectors like automotive manufacturing, logistics, and power inspection, laying a foundation for a trillion-dollar industry [1] - Significant advancements have been made in key technologies such as multi-modal perception and brain-machine interfaces, which have already benefited patients with paralysis and blindness [1] Group 4: Pharmaceuticals - Chongqing-based Runsheng Pharmaceutical has received approval for its inhalation powder product, fluticasone propionate, marking a significant breakthrough in the high-end inhalation powder market [2] Group 5: IPO and Investment - Zijin Mining International is set to attract major investors like GIC and Millennium Management in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO, which is expected to raise over $3 billion [5] - The IPO is anticipated to be the largest globally since May, with cornerstone investors likely to subscribe to about half of the shares [5] Group 6: Real Estate and Construction - Tian Di Yuan has successfully acquired a state-owned construction land use right in Xi'an for 2.015 billion yuan [10] - Palm Holdings has won a bid for a high-standard farmland construction project in Lankao County, valued at 433 million yuan, which represents 14.12% of its projected annual revenue [9] Group 7: Corporate Financial Issues - Sunac Real Estate has been ordered to execute payments totaling over 920 million yuan due to various legal disputes, contributing to its extensive financial liabilities exceeding 45.4 billion yuan [6] - He Shun Technology has received a warning from the Zhejiang Securities Regulatory Bureau for failing to disclose government subsidies and shareholder contributions in a timely manner [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the swine breeding industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The meeting held on September 16 aimed to regulate swine production capacity, involving major industry players such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe [4]. - The swine breeding industry is experiencing a "reverse involution," with policies focusing on capacity control, reduction of breeding sows, and limiting the weight of pigs at market [4]. - As of July 2025, the breeding sow inventory was at 40.42 million heads, slightly down from a peak of 40.80 million heads in December 2024, indicating a potential for further capacity reduction [4]. - The scale and concentration of swine breeding in China are increasing, with a projected scale rate exceeding 70% by 2024, and the industry concentration ratios (CR3, CR5, CR10) showing gradual improvement [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the current state of the swine breeding industry, highlighting the government's focus on controlling production capacity and the need for strategic adjustments among leading enterprises [4]. Production Capacity Control - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has set specific targets for reducing the breeding sow population and controlling the weight of pigs for market, with a goal to lower the average weight to 115 kg [4]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the breeding industry is still at a historically low valuation, suggesting that there are opportunities for investment as capacity reduction expectations grow [4]. - The long-term outlook indicates that leading companies with scale advantages and integrated supply chains are likely to increase their market share as industry concentration improves [4].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has mandated leading pig farming companies to take the lead in reducing production capacity, which exceeds market expectations for capacity control measures [1][2] Group 1: Production Capacity Control - The NDRC and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting with major pig farming companies to discuss the implementation of production capacity control measures [1] - Leading companies are required to reduce the number of breeding sows and control the weight of pigs at the time of sale to around 120 kg [1] - By 2026, the number of breeding sows is expected to decrease year-on-year, as part of the new directives [1] Group 2: Financial and Fiscal Measures - The capacity control measures are supported by a series of financial policies, including strict control over credit for expanding pig production and reducing subsidies that stimulate production growth [1] - The industry has seen a decline in pig prices, with the price of external three yuan pigs dropping to 12.93 yuan/kg on September 18, marking a one-year low [1] Group 3: Industry Response - Industry experts anticipate that the implementation of these measures will lead to a certain degree of success in reducing production capacity [1] - Previous meetings have emphasized the need for strict adherence to capacity control measures, including the rational elimination of breeding sows and the reduction of secondary fattening [2]

Company Overview - Zhengbang Technology is located in Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, and was established on September 26, 1996. The company was listed on August 17, 2007. Its main business includes feed production and sales, pig breeding and sales, and veterinary drug production and sales [1][2]. - The revenue composition of Zhengbang Technology is as follows: pig farming 59.63%, complete feed 38.31%, veterinary drugs 0.92%, concentrated feed 0.62%, and others 0.52% [1]. Financial Performance - As of January to June 2025, Zhengbang Technology achieved an operating income of 6.838 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 112.17%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 202 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 258.18% [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Zhengbang Technology has distributed a total of 2.864 billion yuan in dividends, with no dividends distributed in the past three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - On September 18, Zhengbang Technology's stock price decreased by 2.24%, trading at 3.06 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 28.305 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has seen a year-to-date increase of 4.79%, a decline of 2.24% over the last five trading days, a rise of 5.52% over the last 20 days, and a 12.09% increase over the last 60 days [1]. - As of August 20, the number of shareholders for Zhengbang Technology was 153,200, a decrease of 1.92% from the previous period, with an average of 46,699 circulating shares per person, an increase of 1.96% [2]. Industry Classification - Zhengbang Technology is classified under the Shenwan industry as part of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, specifically in pig farming. The company is also associated with concepts such as pork, ecological agriculture, feed, photovoltaic glass, and rural revitalization [1].

Livestock Industry - The number of new piglets in China is expected to increase from the second half of 2024 to June 2025, indicating a continued ample supply of pigs in the second half of 2025, leading to a relatively low price fluctuation for pigs [1] - In the first half of 2025, selected listed pig farming companies are projected to achieve revenues of 235.068 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.46%, and a net profit of 16.848 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1315% [1] - The profit margin for pig farming is expected to narrow gradually starting from the fourth quarter of 2024, despite maintaining profitability for 15 consecutive months as of July [1] Pet Industry - In the first half of 2025, selected pet food companies reported total revenues of 6.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22%, with individual company performances varying [2] - Guai Bao Pet achieved a revenue growth of 33%, while Zhong Chong Co. saw a 24% increase, while Peidi Co. experienced a 14% decline in revenue [2] - The domestic pet food market remains strong, despite fluctuations in overseas business due to tariff policies [2] Feed Industry - In the first half of 2025, selected feed companies reported total revenues of 81.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, with Bangji Technology showing a remarkable growth of 167% [3] - The overall performance of major feed companies improved, with total net profits reaching 2.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42% [3] - The second quarter of 2025 saw total revenues for feed companies reach 46 billion yuan, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth [3]