1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index: Bullish [1] - Treasury Bonds: Sideways [1] - Gold: Sideways, with a bullish pattern for silver [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Copper): Sideways [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Aluminum and Alumina): Sideways for alumina, cautious and bearish short - term, long - term bullish for aluminum [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel): Sideways [4] - Lithium Carbonate: Sideways [6] - Silicon Energy: Sideways [6] - Steel and Ore (Threaded Steel): Bullish pattern [6] - Steel and Ore (Hot - Rolled Coil): Bullish pattern [6] - Steel and Ore (Iron Ore): Sideways pattern [7] - Coking Coal and Coke (Coking Coal): Sideways [7] - Coking Coal and Coke (Coke): Sideways [7] - Soda Ash/Glass (Soda Ash): Sideways pattern [7] - Soda Ash/Glass (Float Glass): Sideways pattern [7] - Crude Oil: Sideways [9] - Methanol: Bullish [9] - Polyolefins: Sideways [9] - Cotton: Sideways and bullish [9] - Rubber: Cautiously bullish [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall upward trend of the stock index is clear, and there are opportunities to go long on dips; the bond market is affected by sentiment and the stock - commodity market, with reduced upward pressure but high uncertainty [1] - Gold is in a high - level sideways pattern, and silver has strong support. It is recommended to hold short - put option positions and go long on silver [4] - The copper market is affected by the US copper tariff policy, with high uncertainty and a sideways pattern [4] - Alumina is affected by sentiment in the short - term, with a medium - term surplus pattern; aluminum has clear supply constraints and a relatively stable long - term bullish strategy [4] - Nickel lacks directional drivers and is in a sideways pattern, and the short - call option position can be held [4] - The long - term logic of "anti - involution" in the steel and ore market remains valid, but short - term factors are differentiated. Each variety has different supply - demand situations and corresponding strategies [6][7] - The soda ash market has a supply surplus, and the glass market has a relatively better fundamental situation. It is recommended to hold the long - glass and short - soda ash strategy [7] - The crude oil market is affected by geopolitical factors, with a risk premium increase and a sideways pattern [9] - Methanol has price support, and it is recommended to sell put options [9] - Polyolefins have a low basis, and the futures may continue to fluctuate [9] - Cotton prices may fluctuate in a moderately bullish range before September - October [9] - Rubber is in a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with a sideways price trend [9] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index - On Monday, the A - share market had a narrow - range consolidation, with the ChiNext remaining strong and the trading volume slightly decreasing. The stock index futures were in a high - level consolidation, and the discount of IC and IM widened again [1] - The "anti - involution" sentiment in the market cooled down, and the market returned to a state of rapid sector rotation. The macro - level is affected by Sino - US economic and trade talks, and the fundamental long - term logic of corporate profit repair remains unchanged. The upward trend of the stock index is clear, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on dips [1] 3.2 Treasury Bonds - The bond market rebounded across the board, and the upward pressure on the bond market decreased. The central bank made large - scale net injections, and the liquidity was abundant. The bond market is affected by sentiment and the stock - commodity market in the short - term, with high uncertainty [1] 3.3 Gold and Silver - Gold is in a high - level sideways pattern, lacking short - term drivers. If it pulls back to the lower edge of the operating range since June, short - term long positions can be considered. The gold - silver ratio continues to converge, and silver has strong price support. It is recommended to hold short - put option positions and go long on silver [4] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The Shanghai copper market is mainly affected by the US copper tariff policy. The medium - long - term supply of the mining end is tight, and the short - term import demand depends on policies. The market has high uncertainty and is in a sideways pattern [4] Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina is affected by sentiment in the short - term, with a medium - term surplus pattern. The short - term demand for aluminum is cautious, but the supply constraints are clear, and the long - term bullish strategy is relatively stable [4] Nickel - The supply of nickel has a tight situation in Indonesia's mines and abundant production capacity of nickel iron and intermediate products. The demand is in the off - season. The market "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, and the nickel price lacks directional drivers, remaining in a sideways pattern. The short - call option position can be held [4] 3.5 Lithium Carbonate - The exchange adjusted the handling fee and daily opening limit, and the long - position sentiment in the lithium carbonate futures market weakened. The supply pattern has limited improvement, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to the mining license approval results of key mines in Jiangxi in early August [6] 3.6 Silicon Energy - The silicon energy market has limited new orders for polysilicon, and downstream procurement is cautious. The industrial silicon market is mainly driven by polysilicon in the early stage, and the fundamental situation has not improved substantially, with the bullish sentiment fading [6] 3.7 Steel and Ore Threaded Steel - The spot price of threaded steel continued to decline, and the basis strengthened significantly. The regulatory tightening cooled the market, and the short - term supply contraction probability is low. The price has strong support, and it is recommended to hold the short - put option position [6] Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price of hot - rolled coil continued to decline, and the basis also strengthened significantly. The short - term supply contraction probability is low. The price has support, and it is recommended to wait and see [6] Iron Ore - The short - term supply of iron ore is relatively stable, and the long - term price is under pressure. The 9 - 1 positive spread strategy can be patiently held, and the arbitrage opportunity of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore in the 01 contract can be grasped after the sentiment stabilizes [7] 3.8 Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal - The exchange upgraded risk - control measures, and the coking coal futures price fell sharply. The supply tightening expectation exists, and the fundamentals support the price, but short - term unilateral participation requires caution [7] Coke - The coke spot market is bullish, but the futures price is affected by the decline of coking coal and shows a sideways decline [7] 3.9 Soda Ash and Glass Soda Ash - The soda ash market has a supply surplus, and the demand is affected by "anti - involution". The inventory decreased recently, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for new orders and hold the long - glass and short - soda ash strategy [7] Float Glass - The glass market has a relatively better fundamental situation, with continuous inventory reduction. It is recommended to go long on dips or sell put options and hold the long - glass and short - soda ash strategy [7] 3.10 Crude Oil - Geopolitical factors have become the short - term focus of the market, and the risk premium has increased. The OPEC+ may increase production in September. The demand - side support has weakened, and the market is in a sideways pattern [9] 3.11 Methanol - The port inventory of methanol is expected to increase, and the start - up rate of northwest coal - chemical plants is expected to rise. The futures price is higher than the spot price, and it is recommended to sell put options [9] 3.12 Polyolefins - The basis of polyolefins is low, and the futures may pull back. In August, both supply and demand are expected to increase, and the futures will continue to fluctuate [9] 3.13 Cotton - The short - term supply of cotton is tight, and the demand is relatively stable. There is a possibility of additional quotas. Before September - October, the cotton price may fluctuate in a moderately bullish range [9] 3.14 Rubber - The port inventory of rubber is increasing again, and the supply and demand are both increasing. The price is in a sideways pattern, and attention should be paid to the production increase rate in Southeast Asian producing areas [9]

| | | | VY & SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年07月29日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ★☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★★★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面大幅走强。螺纹表需环比回暖，产量小幅回升，库存低位小幅下降。热卷需求有所回落，产量继续下滑，库存小幅累 积。铁水产量维持高位，低库存格局下，市场负反馈压力不大，成本抬升对钢价形成明显支撑。从下游行业看，地产投资继续 大幅下滑，基建、制造业投资增速放缓，内需整体依然偏弱，出口维持相对高位。 ...

人民财讯7月29日电，据中国煤炭运销协会官微消息，6月份国内煤炭消费环比逐步回升但同比依然偏 弱。其中，电力需求同比增速扩大，水电发电出力不及预期，火电机组充分发挥兜底保障能源作用，火 电发电量同比增长，带动电煤需求回升。规模以上生铁、水泥、平板玻璃等耗煤产品产量继续下降，制 约钢铁、建材行业用煤需求增长；主要煤化工产品产量快速增长，带动化工用煤保持增长。7月上中 旬，我国高温天气范围扩大，水电出力情况欠佳，火电发电量环比、同比均有增长，火电厂日均煤耗继 续增加。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent market volatility is driven by intense corrections in speculation, raising questions about whether the current supply-side policy-driven rally has ended or is merely a "backward catch" opportunity [3][8]. Policy Analysis - The government has emphasized the need to combat deflation through supply-side policies, such as halting the addition of excess capacity and promoting domestic consumption. The scope of supply rationalization measures has expanded to include metals, petrochemicals, and industries like lithium and coal, which have reported supply disruptions [3][9]. - Historical responses to deflation have varied, with the current situation being unique due to the predominance of advanced capacity and the fragmented industrial landscape, alongside high government debt limiting fiscal space [3][9][10]. Commodity-Specific Insights - Lithium prices have rebounded but remain below marginal cash costs of $11,500/ton, with approximately 45% of global capacity unable to cover cash costs at a price of $9,000/ton. This suggests limited downside potential for prices [4][13]. - Recent compliance checks in the lithium sector may lead to short-term supply disruptions, with around 20,000 tons of lithium capacity facing compliance risks, potentially resulting in significant inventory depletion and price rebounds [14]. - In the coal sector, production inspections are focused on preventing overproduction, with expectations of moderate impacts. However, recent price declines may limit further downside [5][15]. Agricultural Sector Developments - The hog farming industry is actively responding to regulatory controls by reducing breeding sow inventories and adjusting market weights, which may support near-term price stability and long-term valuation increases [6][16]. Market Trends and Expectations - The bond market reflects expectations of prolonged deflation, with government policies aimed at supply-side constraints potentially boosting industrial prices and improving upstream profits. This may reduce the urgency for monetary easing [6][17]. - The recent surge in government infrastructure investment, such as the $1.2 trillion Tibet dam project, has also contributed to supply concerns and influenced market dynamics [6][17].

能源化工研发报告 大宗商品研究 煤炭日报 2025 年 7 月 29 日 煤炭日报 【市场回顾】 现货市场：7 月 29 日，港口市场交投氛围一般，贸易商报价依旧维稳，现 5500 大 卡市场报价 650-660 元/吨，5000 大卡市场报价 590-600 元/吨，4500 大卡市场报价 520 元/吨；内蒙地区非电企业用煤 5500 大卡煤种价格处于 425 - 465 元/吨之间，5000 大卡 煤种价格处于 355 - 395 元/吨之间，4500 大卡煤种价格处于 285 - 325 元/吨之间；榆林 地区非电企业用煤 6000 大卡煤的价格区间为 520 - 550 元/吨，5800 大卡煤的价格区间为 490 - 520 元/吨；山西非电企业用煤 5500 大卡煤种价格在 480 - 530 元/吨之间，5000 大 卡煤种价格在 420 - 470 元/吨之间，4500 大卡煤种价格在 360 - 410 元/吨之间。江内港 口 5500 大卡动力煤报价区间为 690 - 710 元/吨；5000 大卡动力煤报价在 630 - 640 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【逻辑分析】 供应方面，坑口价格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The former Party Secretary and Chairman of Huabei Mining (Group) Co., Ltd., Wang Mingsheng, is under disciplinary review and investigation for serious violations of discipline and law [1][3]. Company Overview - Huabei Mining (Group) Co., Ltd. was established in 1958 and restructured in 1998, evolving into a large energy and chemical group with coal, electricity, chemicals, and modern services as its main industries [5]. - The company operates two publicly listed entities on the Shanghai Stock Exchange: Huabei Mining and Huashu Co., Ltd. [5]. - The company has an annual production capacity of 23 million tons of commercial coal, 4.4 million tons of coke, 900,000 tons of methanol, 600,000 tons of ethanol, and 640,000 tons of polyvinyl chloride, with a total installed power generation capacity of 2 million kilowatts [5]. - Huabei Mining has been listed among the top 500 Chinese enterprises for 23 consecutive years, ranking 300th in the 2024 list [5]. Financial Performance - As of the end of 2023, Huabei Mining (Group) Co., Ltd. has assets exceeding 100 billion yuan and achieved revenue exceeding 80 billion yuan [6].

以上经营数据未经审计，仅供投资者及时了解公司生产经营状况所 用，敬请广大投资者理性投资，注意投资风险。 2025 年半年度经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性 陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带 责任。 根据上海证券交易所《上市公司行业信息披露指引第二号－煤炭》 要求，现将平顶山天安煤业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）2025 年半年度经营数据公告如下： 证券代码：601666 股票简称：平煤股份 编号：2025-063 平顶山天安煤业股份有限公司 | 项目 | 2025 年 | 1—6 | 月 | 2024年1—6月 | 变动比率（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原煤产量（万吨） | 1,452.97 | | | 1,420.82 | 2.26 | | 商品煤销量（万吨） | 1,173.69 | | | 1,348.75 | -12.98 | | 其中：自有商品煤销量（万吨） | 977.29 | | | 1,154.52 | -15.35 | | 商品煤销售收入（万元） | ...

Core Viewpoint - The former Party Secretary and Chairman of Huabei Mining Group, Wang Mingsheng, is under disciplinary review and investigation for serious violations of discipline and law [1]. Company Overview - Wang Mingsheng, born in August 1959, has held various positions within the Anhui mining sector, including Deputy Director and Party Secretary of Huabei Mining Group since December 2007 [2]. - Huabei Mining Group, established in 1958 and restructured in 1998, has evolved into a large energy and chemical group with key industries in coal, electricity, and chemicals, operating two publicly listed companies [2]. - The company has an annual production capacity of 23 million tons of commercial coal, 4.4 million tons of coke, 900,000 tons of methanol, 600,000 tons of ethanol, and 640,000 tons of polyvinyl chloride, with a total installed power capacity of 2 million kilowatts [2]. - Huabei Mining Group has been listed among the top 500 Chinese enterprises for 23 consecutive years, ranking 300th in the 2024 list [2]. Financial Performance - As of the end of 2023, Huabei Mining Group's assets exceeded 100 billion yuan, with revenues surpassing 80 billion yuan [3].

Core Viewpoint - The National Energy Group is actively implementing measures to ensure energy supply and flood prevention in the Ordos region amidst severe rainfall, which poses significant challenges to coal production and transportation [2][3][4] Group 1: Flood Response and Energy Supply - The Ordos region is a crucial coal production base for China, and the National Energy Group has initiated emergency plans to minimize the impact of continuous heavy rainfall on coal mining operations [2] - From July 23 to 27, the region experienced over 250 mm of rainfall at 32 monitoring stations, accounting for more than 60% of the area's annual average precipitation, leading to a complex flood situation [2] - The Group's subsidiary, Juneng Group, has ensured safety and production by conducting 24-hour inspections of flood control projects and implementing measures to intercept water accumulation in mining areas [2] Group 2: Railway Operations and Safety Measures - The New Shuo Railway faced record-breaking rainfall, with over one-third of its stations recording more than 100 mm, resulting in damage to infrastructure [3] - The National Energy Group's New Shuo Railway Company mobilized 3,192 personnel and 130 large machines for emergency repairs, establishing a dual control model for flood risk management [3] - The Baoshen Railway Group utilized smart monitoring technology to conduct over 600 video inspections of key flood-prone areas, ensuring the safety and stability of equipment operations during the flood period [4] Group 3: Coal Transportation and Supply Chain Management - The sales group of the National Energy Group activated an emergency response mechanism to stabilize coal supply during the flood, closely monitoring market dynamics in key mining areas [4] - The company successfully maintained an average daily coal transportation volume exceeding 1 million tons in July, ensuring stable supply during critical flood prevention periods [4]

币种：人民币 | 项目 | 2025 年第二季度 | 2025 年 1-6 月 | 同比增减变动幅度(%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025 年 | 2025 年 | | | | | 第二季度 | 1-6 月 | | 煤炭产量（万吨） | 1,562.17 | 3,007.72 | 13.52 | 17.59 | | 销售煤炭（万吨） | 1,847.40 | 3,633.62 | 8.51 | 10.83 | | 销售收入（万元） | 748,489.19 | 1,562,986.20 | -20.25 | -17.66 | | 销售成本（万元） | 558,757.85 | 1,132,408.84 | -13.95 | -11.14 | | 销售毛利（万元） | 189,731.34 | 430,577.35 | -34.39 | -30.97 | 证券代码：900948 证券简称：伊泰 B 股 公告编号：临 2025-043 内蒙古伊泰煤炭股份有限公司 关于 2025 年第二季度经营情况的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任 ...