Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The coking coal and coke fundamentals temporarily maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, but the continuous strength of the energy - chemical sector recently has increased the bullish sentiment in the coking coal market, and the prices will follow the upward trend in the short term [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Market Performance - Last week, the coking coal and coke futures prices mainly showed a wide - range volatile trend, and the prices rebounded rapidly in the night session on Friday. The continuous strong rise of the energy - chemical sector provided some emotional support to the coking coal market. On the spot side, steel mills' first - round reduction of coke prices has been gradually implemented, and the coking coal prices in production areas have been reduced by 20 - 70 yuan/ton [2] Policy Impact - Currently, important meetings are being held, and the report mentions "promoting a reasonable recovery of prices". As coal is the energy foundation and has a great impact on industrial product prices, the policy orientation may promote the stability or even a moderate increase in coal prices [2] Environmental Protection and Production Restrictions - Some regional steel mills have implemented phased production restrictions, and the molten iron output has decreased significantly. The impact of environmental protection and production restriction policies will still exist this week and is expected to gradually recover next week [2][3] Supply - Side Situation - Last week, coal mines continued the resumption process. After the Lantern Festival, coal mines in the main production areas were basically fully resumed. Last week, the daily production of raw coal and clean coal was 1.829 million tons and 748,000 tons respectively, an increase of 313,000 tons and 99,000 tons compared with the previous week. At the import end, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port has returned to a relatively high level after the festival, and the inventory in the port supervision area has increased again [3] Demand - Side Situation - Last week, the average daily molten iron output of steel mills' blast furnaces was 2.276 million tons, and downstream enterprises mainly consumed the raw material inventory in the factory [3]

Group 1 - The main stocks with significant capital inflow include BYD (9.08 billion), Sungrow Power (6.85 billion), and YunSai ZhiLian (6.18 billion) [1] - The top performing stocks by percentage increase are Baofeng Energy (9.99%), YK Technology-W (19.99%), and YunSai ZhiLian (9.98%) [2][3] - The sectors represented in the top inflow stocks include automotive, power equipment, computer, and coal [2][3] Group 2 - BYD leads with a capital inflow of 9.08 billion and a price increase of 2.89% [2] - Sungrow Power has a capital inflow of 6.85 billion with a price increase of 2.56% [2] - The total capital inflow for the top 20 stocks reflects strong investor interest across various sectors [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal supply is generally loose. After the Spring Festival, domestic coal mines resumed production rapidly, and the capacity utilization rate increased significantly. Meanwhile, the resumption of Mongolian coal customs clearance to a high - level and the accumulation of port inventory also contributed to the loose supply. The upstream mine inventory began to accumulate, while downstream coking and steel enterprises mainly consumed in - house inventory and were cautious in purchasing [3][48]. - The coke supply shows a steady and increasing trend. After the Spring Festival, the decline in coking coal prices led to a significant repair of coking enterprise profits. The average national profit per ton of coke turned positive, which boosted production enthusiasm, increased the capacity utilization rate of coking enterprises, and increased the daily output month - on - month. The inventory structure features inventory accumulation in upstream coking enterprises and inventory reduction in downstream steel mills [3][48]. - After the Spring Festival, steel mills resumed production in an orderly manner as terminal projects started and profits were repaired. The blast furnace operation gradually recovered. There was a slight decline in molten iron production during the Two Sessions due to production restrictions in the north, but it is expected to resume the upward trend after the sessions. Currently, the raw material inventory of steel mills has decreased, and the expectation of replenishing inventory has increased [3][48]. - In March, the energy disturbance is intensifying. Although the resumption of blast furnace production is expected to improve demand, there is still supply pressure. It is expected that the prices of coking coal and coke will fluctuate upwards. The reference range for coke is 1600 - 1850 yuan/ton, and for coking coal is 1000 - 1380 yuan/ton [3][49]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - In February, the coking coal and coke futures fluctuated weakly. Affected by the Spring Festival, the supply and demand in the fundamental market were both weak. The spot price of coking coal fluctuated weakly, with the main contract down about 5.3% in the month. The spot price of coke remained stable, and the futures first rose and then fell, with the main contract down 5% in the month. Overall, the performance of coking coal and coke in February was weaker than that of steel products [8]. 2. Supply Side 2.1 Upstream Coking Coal Rapidly Resumed Production - In February, coking coal production was characterized by pre - festival production reduction and post - festival rapid resumption. During the Spring Festival, domestic coal mines stopped production, and the output reached a seasonal low. After the holiday, the resumption of coal mines accelerated. As of March 5, the capacity utilization rate of sample mines rebounded by 14 percentage points to 82.3%. The daily output of raw coal and clean coal increased significantly compared with that before the festival, and the supply gradually became loose, putting pressure on prices [9]. 2.2 Good Momentum of Coking Coal Imports - After the Spring Festival, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal quickly recovered to a high level. The daily number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port increased to 1100 - 1500, with a significant year - on - year increase. Mongolia plans to export 100 million tons of coal to China in 2026. In December 2025, China's coking coal imports increased by 28.57% year - on - year to 13.7698 million tons, and the annual import volume remained high. Mongolia and Russia accounted for 78% of the total imports. It is expected that the import volume will remain high and effectively supplement the domestic supply [13]. 2.3 Coking Coal Inventory Analysis - In February, the coking coal inventory showed obvious differentiation. Affected by pre - festival inventory replenishment by downstream enterprises and mine shutdowns, the raw coal and clean coal inventories of 523 sample mines decreased. After the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises mainly consumed in - house inventory, and the upstream inventory began to accumulate due to rapid resumption of production. At the beginning of March, the raw coal and clean coal inventories of sample mines increased [26]. 2.4 Stable Coke Supply - In February, the coke supply remained stable overall. After the Spring Festival, coking enterprises resumed production in an orderly manner, and the supply gradually increased. The decline in coking coal prices improved the profitability of coking enterprises. The average national profit per ton of coke increased from - 55 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to + 17 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises and steel - mill coking plants increased, and the daily output also increased [28]. 2.5 Coke Import and Export - There is no actual data on coke import and export in 2026. In 2025, China's coke exports were 7.941 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%. It is expected that the export volume in 2026 will be basically the same [31]. 2.6 Coke Inventory - The coke inventory features inventory accumulation in upstream coking enterprises and inventory reduction in downstream steel mills, and the total inventory remains stable. As of March 6, the inventory of independent coking enterprises increased, the inventory of steel mills decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly. The total coke inventory decreased slightly in the whole month. If the terminal demand recovers, the inventory pressure of coking enterprises is expected to be relieved [33]. 3. Demand Side: Gradual Recovery after the Spring Festival - In February, the blast furnace production generally increased steadily, with pre - festival maintenance and post - festival resumption. After the Spring Festival, as terminal projects started and profits were repaired, the blast furnace operation gradually recovered. During the Two Sessions, there was a slight decline in molten iron production due to production restrictions in the north, but it is expected to resume the upward trend after the sessions. The demand for coke is expected to continue to recover in March, but the incremental space is limited due to the slow recovery of the terminal [36]. 4. Market Outlook - The coking coal supply is loose, the coke supply is increasing steadily, and steel mills are resuming production. The Two Sessions in March released positive signals, but the real estate market is still at risk, and overseas uncertainties are increasing. It is necessary to focus on the impact of global energy price increases on coking coal and coke prices. It is expected that the prices of coking coal and coke will fluctuate upwards in March [48][49].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market for coal stocks is experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by geopolitical conflicts that may increase international energy prices and coal substitution demand [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Coal stocks such as Lanhua Ketech reached a 10% limit up, while Yanzhou Coal, Jinkong Coal, and China Coal Energy rose over 8% [1] - Other notable performers include Lu'an Environmental Energy up over 7%, Shaanxi Coal and Kailuan Shares up over 6%, and several companies including Meijin Energy and China Shenhua up over 5% [1] Group 2: Company Specifics - Lanhua Ketech has a market capitalization of 10.8 billion with a year-to-date increase of 23.86% [2] - Yanzhou Coal has a market capitalization of 210 billion with a year-to-date increase of 59.09% [2] - Jinkong Coal has a market capitalization of 30.8 billion with a year-to-date increase of 39.77% [2] - China Coal Energy has a market capitalization of 248.7 billion with a year-to-date increase of 50.80% [2] - Lu'an Environmental Energy has a market capitalization of 45.1 billion with a year-to-date increase of 27.63% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the supply - demand of thermal coal is becoming looser, leading to a price correction. In the short - term, the price is expected to be under pressure due to factors such as the entry into the traditional coal consumption off - season, reduced power plant restocking pressure, increased port inventories, and a weakening trading atmosphere [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Coal Prices**: The report provides price data for thermal coal from different origins and ports. For example, the price of Shanxi Datong 5500 is 613 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 55 yuan/ton; the price of Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced Q5500 is 743 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 2 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 62 yuan/ton. Overseas prices, such as the Indonesian FOB Q3800 at 59.8 dollars/ton, show a month - on - month decrease of 0.7 dollars/ton and a year - on - year increase of 8.8 dollars/ton [1]. - **3 - month Long - term Agreement Price**: It includes prices for different regions such as Shanxi Q5500 (519 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton), Shaanxi Q5500 (462 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton), and Mengxi Q5500 (433 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of thermal coal (based on the spot price of thermal coal at Beigang) is - 1. It shows that the port thermal coal market is running weakly, and the short - term price is expected to be under pressure [2]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - The port thermal coal market is running weakly on March 6. Entering the traditional coal consumption off - season, the civil load will gradually decline, the power plant restocking pressure is small, the supply in the production area is gradually recovering, the port inventory has increased significantly compared with last week, the market supply - demand pattern is becoming looser, the terminal's wait - and - see and slow - purchasing sentiment has increased, the trading atmosphere has weakened, and the quoted price has gradually loosened [2]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has set the domestic market obligation (DMO) coal supply target for 2026 at 2.479 billion tons, slightly lower than the actual supply in 2025 (2.54 billion tons). The initial target for Indonesia's coal production in 2026 is 7.33 billion tons, subject to adjustment according to production reduction [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The coke market has seen a round of price cuts and is expected to be volatile and moderately strong. The coking coal market has its energy - related attributes continuously developing and is also expected to be volatile and moderately strong [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Prices - JM2605 closed at 1123 yuan/ton, up 17.5 yuan/ton or 1.6%. J2605 closed at 1695.5 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton or 1.1% [2] - JM2605 had a trading volume of 876,475 lots, an open interest of 496,857 lots, and an open - interest change of 8,364 lots. J2605 had a trading volume of 18,895 lots, an open interest of 37,714 lots, and an open - interest change of 891 lots [2] 3.1.2 Spot Prices - For coking coal, the price of Linfen low - sulfur main coking coal decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1460 yuan/ton, while other types of coking coal such as Lvliang low - sulfur main coking coal remained unchanged. For coke, the price of Hebei quasi - dry quenched coke decreased by 55 yuan/ton to 1525 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke delivered to the factory decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 1395 yuan/ton [2] 3.1.3 Basis and Spreads - The basis of JM2605 in Shanxi decreased by 17.5 yuan/ton to 42 yuan/ton; in Meng5, it decreased by 11.5 yuan/ton to 52 yuan/ton. The basis of J2605 for Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke delivered to the factory decreased by 69 yuan/ton to - 163.5 yuan/ton [2] - The spread of JM2605 - JM2609 increased by 1 yuan/ton to - 93.5 yuan/ton, and the spread of J2605 - J2609 increased by 2 yuan/ton to - 66.5 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On March 6, the CCI metallurgical coal index showed that CCI Shanxi low - sulfur main coking coal S0.7 was 1459 (unchanged), CCI Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal S1.3 was 1170 (down 20), and CCI Shanxi high - sulfur main coking coal S1.6 was 1164 (down 20) [2] - On March 6, the online auction of coking coal had a total listed volume of 246,800 tons, a non - successful bid rate of 1% (down 29% from the previous day), and an average premium of 35.57 yuan/ton. The listed resources were mainly primary coking coal, lean coking raw coal, and fat raw coal. The auction results showed mixed price changes. The downstream was willing to accept cost - effective resources, but with the first - round price increase of coke, most market participants were cautious and some were bearish on the future market, resulting in insufficient demand and a continuous decline in high - priced resources. Most of the auction resources had a price increase within 20 yuan/ton, a few had an increase of over 80 yuan/ton, and the price decrease was between 3 - 69 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of coke is 0, and the trend intensity of coking coal is 0 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current fundamentals of the black series are significantly weaker than pre - holiday expectations. The short - term core contradiction lies in inventory digestion and demand verification. Before the real demand in the peak season is confirmed, prices are unlikely to show a trend reversal and are likely to remain range - bound and weak. Attention should be paid to high - frequency indicators such as construction site resumption rates and daily consumption of cement and building materials [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3088 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.422%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 16,646 tons, a net increase of 7,318 tons. The main contract position was 1.7987 million lots, a decrease of 38,543 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3,120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and in Shanghai it was 3,190 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,230 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (0.654%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 472,215 tons, unchanged, and the main contract position was 1.3988 million lots, a decrease of 31,275 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3,240 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Shanghai it was 3,230 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Strategy View**: The overall price of finished steel continued to be volatile. Macro - policies will support infrastructure and manufacturing investment and underpin steel demand in the medium term. Real - estate policies focus on stabilizing the market and defusing risks, with limited incremental impact on steel demand. The demand for hot - rolled coils declined this week, and inventory continued to accumulate. For rebar, supply and demand both increased, but the inventory accumulation rate was too fast. Before peak - season demand is confirmed, prices are likely to remain range - bound and weak [3]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 772.00 yuan/ton on Friday, up 1.71% (+13.00), with a position change of - 10,515 lots to 488,300 lots. The weighted position was 888,300 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 764 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 38.93 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.80% [4]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas ore shipments fluctuated slightly at a high level. Australian shipments declined, while Brazilian shipments increased. Near - term arrivals continued to fall. The latest daily hot - metal output decreased by 56,900 tons to 2.2759 million tons. Steel - mill profitability declined. Port inventory was basically unchanged, and steel - mill inventory continued to decline. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: On March 6, the main manganese - silicon contract (SM605) closed up 0.62% at 6,130 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5,900 yuan/ton, with a basis of 40 yuan/ton. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF605) closed up 0.69% at 5,868 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6,200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 332 yuan/ton. The manganese - silicon price rebounded and remained volatile at a high level, and the ferrosilicon price continued to rebound [7]. - **Strategy View**: The escalation of the US - Iran situation has shifted the overall sentiment of commodities towards the bullish side. In the short term, short - selling may not be appropriate. Manganese silicon has an unfavorable supply - demand pattern, while ferrosilicon has a good fundamental situation. Future market contradictions lie in the direction of the black - metal sector, cost increases from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and supply contractions for ferrosilicon [8][9]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: On March 6, the main coking - coal contract (JM2605) closed up 1.58% at 1,123.0 yuan/ton. The main coke contract (J2605) closed up 1.13% at 1,695.5 yuan/ton. The coking - coal price rebounded slightly in March, and the coke price also rebounded slightly [11][12][13]. - **Strategy View**: The escalation of the US - Iran situation and the "Two Sessions" had a slightly positive impact on coking coal, driving up prices. However, downstream de - stocking and increased coal production in March will restrict short - term demand. Although the market sentiment has changed, there is not enough support for a sharp price rebound in the short term. In the long term, the coking - coal price is expected to rise from June to October [14][15]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: The main industrial - silicon futures contract (SI2605) closed at 8,690 yuan/ton on Friday, up 1.46% (+125). The weighted contract position decreased by 7,727 lots to 385,766 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9,100 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 410 yuan/ton [17]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial - silicon price fluctuated. Supply is expected to increase in March, and demand from the polysilicon and organic - silicon sectors is also likely to rise. The market may see a situation of both supply and demand increasing, but inventory reduction will be difficult. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to unexpected disturbances [18]. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The main polysilicon futures contract (PS2605) closed at 41,115 yuan/ton on Friday, down 2.76% (-1,165). The weighted contract position decreased by 757 lots to 57,752 lots [19]. - **Strategy View**: Supply and demand in the polysilicon market are expected to increase in March, but inventory reduction may be limited. The spot price is under pressure, and the futures price is also expected to continue to face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to new order transactions [19]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Information**: The main glass contract closed at 1,055 yuan/ton on Friday, up 1.64% (+17). The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises on March 5 was 79.637 million boxes, up 3.629 million boxes (4.77%) [21]. - **Strategy View**: Market demand has slightly improved, and glass manufacturers have raised prices. However, distributors' willingness to purchase is not strong. The government's real - estate policy continues to be "supportive but not over - stimulating", and there is potential for incremental policies. The reference range for the main contract is 1,070 - 1,130 yuan/ton [22]. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The main soda - ash contract closed at 1,225 yuan/ton on Friday, up 1.83% (+22). The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises on March 5 was 1.9472 million tons, up 52,800 tons (4.77%) [23]. - **Strategy View**: The market is in a wait - and - see state, and the actual procurement demand of downstream industries has not been effectively released. The cost of soda ash has increased due to the rise in domestic oil prices. The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate with the coal - chemical sector in March. The reference range for the main contract is 1,230 - 1,315 yuan/ton [24].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry: Coal Sector Key Points 1. **Rising International Oil Prices**: International oil prices have surged recently, with a strong overall trend despite some fluctuations last week. Several oil-producing countries have indicated potential reductions in oil production, which may lead to continued unexpected increases in oil and gas prices. This situation is particularly affecting natural gas prices, which are rising and increasing coal substitution demand in regions like the EU and Japan, thereby pushing up high-calorific coal prices in the Asia-Pacific region and raising China's imported coal costs [1][2]. 2. **Impact of Indonesian Coal Production**: Since the beginning of the year, Indonesian coal production has contracted, which has positively influenced domestic coal prices. There is no need to worry about a seasonal decline in domestic coal prices, as the import coal prices have continued to rise. Additionally, domestic power plants are experiencing a premium on April's seasonal import coal prices, providing support for future domestic prices [2]. 3. **Limited Short-term Price Decline**: Although the domestic market typically faces a seasonal downturn in March and April, the support from import coal costs and the expected seasonal increase in non-electric industry operations suggest that any short-term price decline in coal may be very limited, with a quick rebound likely [2]. 4. **Improvement in Coking Coal Prices**: Beyond thermal coal, there are expectations for improvements in coking coal prices due to several factors: - The downstream black industry chain is gradually entering a peak season - Rising chemical product prices may enhance the profitability of coking by-products, leading to increased coking rates and demand for coking coal - Coking coal prices are expected to rise in tandem with thermal coal prices based on price relationship dynamics [2].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is compared to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with significant implications for energy, transportation, basic chemicals, and food supply chains. The long-term effects are expected to persist even if the situation resolves in the short term, leading to stockpiling behaviors [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - **Oil Price Dynamics**: Current oil prices are at $107, which may not be sustainable, but the central price level is expected to rise due to safety premiums. This situation is likely to trigger a multi-year bull market for gold, similar to previous cycles [1][2] - **Industrial Impact**: The industrial system is becoming a target, with a shift towards long-term, low-consumption warfare strategies. Investment is recommended in energy, chemicals, tungsten, and sectors less correlated with AI and innovative pharmaceuticals [1][2] - **Market Sentiment**: The current market sentiment is cautious, with technical rebounds rather than trend reversals. Valuations are deemed cheap but are not driving index performance. The focus is on traditional economic sectors such as power generation, oil, coal, and insurance [6][4] Sector-Specific Insights - **Chemicals and Energy**: The chemical sector is expected to benefit from rising oil prices, with a sustained upward trend anticipated for the next 1-2 years. Companies like China Petroleum, CNOOC, and major chemical firms are positioned to gain from overseas supply chain disruptions [9][8] - **Agriculture**: There is a projected 30% increase in corn prices due to tight supply conditions. The rising costs of feed, particularly corn and soybean meal, are accelerating capacity reductions in the livestock sector [17][18] - **Metals and Commodities**: Concerns about inflation and economic downturns are leading to a cautious outlook on metals like copper and lithium. However, there is optimism for mid-term recovery in copper prices, with a support level identified at 100,000 [24] Additional Important Insights - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies with overseas assets in coal and chemical sectors, such as Yanzhou Coal and Yancoal Australia, are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the current market dynamics. The focus is also on lithium battery manufacturers like CATL [12][16] - **Technological Developments**: The semiconductor sector is experiencing significant price increases, with NAND prices reportedly doubling. This is attributed to supply chain vulnerabilities exacerbated by geopolitical tensions [25] - **Financial Sector Outlook**: The banking sector is expected to benefit from a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential for interest rate cuts and increased credit expansion. High-dividend banks are recommended for investment [27] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and future expectations across various sectors.

2026年03月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：运输成本抬升，矿价小幅反弹 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：震荡反复 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：震荡反复 | 3 | | 硅铁：多空双方博弈，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：多空双方博弈，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：一轮提降落地，震荡偏强 | 7 | | 焦煤：能源属性持续发酵，震荡偏强 | 7 | | 动力煤：供需趋宽，煤价回调 | 9 | | 原木：需求季节性回升，价差正套运行 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 3 月 9 日 （2）2026 年政府工作报告重在稳定预期，着力调结构、防风险、促改革。一方面，GDP 增速从"5%左 右"下调至"4.5%-5.0%"，经济增长目标更加务实；另一方面，提高政策性金融工具规模。 （3）247 家钢铁企业日均铁水产量为 227.59 万吨，环比下降 5.69 万吨。（我的钢铁） 铁矿石：运输成本抬升，矿价小幅反弹 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021 ...