Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Maintain Overweight" [4] Core Views - The prices of aquatic products have generally increased in the first half of the year, and the growth rate of aquatic feed is expected to remain high in the second half. The production of aquatic feed is mainly related to fish prices and weather factors. The wholesale prices of the four major fish species remain high, with year-to-date price increases for carp, silver carp, grass carp, and crucian carp being 4.78%, 6.99%, 9.37%, and 7.00% respectively. Special fish prices have also seen significant increases, with year-to-date price increases for spotted catfish, live fish, California bass, and bullfrogs being 18.67%, 6.76%, 24.24%, and 22.81% respectively [1][11][12] Summary by Sections Aquaculture - The breeding volume of various special aquatic products has increased in recent years, particularly for frogs and catfish, with five-year compound growth rates of 17.5% and 11.3% respectively. Other species such as bass and mandarin fish have growth rates of 8.7% and 7.4%, while South American white shrimp has a growth rate of 4.8%. For 2024, the breeding volumes are projected to be 595,500 tons for live fish, 539,800 tons for mandarin fish, 938,500 tons for bass, and 840,100 tons for South American white shrimp [2][12] Swine Farming - The national price for lean meat pigs is 13.22 yuan/kg, down 3.4% from last week. Current valuations are still relatively low, and attention is drawn to leading companies with cost-effectiveness and high growth potential, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Dekang Agriculture, and others [2][13] Poultry Farming - The price of broiler chickens is 7.02 yuan/kg, down 2.1% from last week, while the average price of chicken products is 8.65 yuan/kg, down 0.6%. The price of broiler chicks is 3.25 yuan each, down 4.4% from last week. There is a focus on potential price reversals following sentiment recovery, with recommendations for companies such as Yisheng Livestock, Shengnong Development, and others [3][13] Crop and Agricultural Products - The approval of genetically modified varieties is set to enter commercial sales after the public announcement period. The subsequent confirmation of actual transaction prices, profit distribution, and new season seed expansion will gradually clarify the growth potential of industry companies [3][13] Supporting Industries - The volatility of agricultural product prices has increased, and livestock prices have not yet entered a stable prosperity cycle. Leading feed companies are expected to replace smaller companies due to their advantages in procurement, scale, and capital. Attention is drawn to companies like Haida Group and Hewei Group [3][13]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 09 月 14 日 生猪：堰塞湖显现，近端中枢待下移 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 报告导读： （1）本周市场回顾（9.8-9.14） 现货市场，生猪价格弱势运行。河南 20KG 仔猪价格 27.4 元/公斤（上周 29.4 元/公斤），本周河南 生猪价格 13.48 元/公斤（上周 14.03 元/公斤），全国 50KG 二元母猪价格 1595 元/头（上周 1596 元/ 头）。供应端，集团出栏进度整体偏慢，散户出栏意愿略提升，供应偏宽松；需求端，短期消费弱势，宰 量低位运行。根据卓创资讯数据，本周全国出栏平均体重 124.42KG（上周 123.93KG），出栏均重环比上 升 0.4%。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货市场，生猪期货价格弱势运行。本周生猪期货 LH2511 合约最高价为 13435 元/吨，最低价为 13145 元/吨，收盘价为 13255 元/吨（上周同期 13325 元/吨）。基差方面，LH2509 合约 ...

Core Insights - Hunan New Wufeng Co., Ltd. is a leading modern pig farming enterprise in Hunan, focusing on county-level development and establishing a localized full industry chain from feed to slaughter [1][2] Group 1: Government and Enterprise Collaboration - The company has actively engaged in strategic partnerships with local governments, exemplified by the cooperation with Huaihua County to enhance pig farming capabilities [2] - The partnership has evolved from single farming to a comprehensive industry upgrade, including the establishment of a national-level core breeding base [2] Group 2: Innovative Business Model - New Wufeng has introduced a "light asset leasing" model, where over 90% of farms are leased, significantly reducing capital expenditure and operational risks [2] - For instance, the company saves approximately 90 million yuan annually by leasing instead of building new farms, allowing for more efficient resource allocation [2] Group 3: Rural Development and Farmer Empowerment - The company has established partnerships with over 400 farmers, leading to a stock size exceeding 830,000 pigs and generating over 400 million yuan in annual income for farmers [2] - The collaboration has resulted in the creation of new job opportunities and the development of skilled farmers, contributing to local economic growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - Hunan Xinwufeng Co., Ltd. is a leading modern pig farming enterprise in Hunan, focusing on county-level development and establishing a comprehensive local industrial chain from feed to slaughter [1][2]. Group 1: County Industry Development - The company has implemented a "dual-wheel drive" model in cooperation with local governments to enhance the pig farming industry in remote counties, providing platforms and resources for development [1][2]. - A strategic cooperation memorandum was signed in November 2019, marking the beginning of intensive collaboration in the pig industry in Huitong County, which lacked funding and technology [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Impact and Employment - The rapid expansion of pig farming and related businesses in Huitong County has significantly increased local pig production capacity and created job opportunities, injecting vitality into the county's economy [2][3]. - The establishment of a feed factory in Huitong County, with an investment of 78.86 million yuan and an annual production capacity of 180,000 tons, has generated approximately 387 million yuan in revenue since its operation [3]. Group 3: Innovative Business Models - The company has adopted a "light asset leasing" model, where over 90% of farms are leased, allowing for reduced costs and increased investment in core production areas [4]. - This leasing model provides stable income for local governments and farmers, directly supporting local pig production and creating over 80 jobs [4]. Group 4: Farmer Empowerment - Xinwufeng has established partnerships with over 400 farmers, with a stock scale exceeding 830,000 pigs, generating over 400 million yuan in annual income for farmers through a comprehensive support system [6]. - The company provides a "one-stop" service for farmers, covering all necessary resources and offering hands-on training in pig farming techniques [6]. Group 5: Contribution to Rural Revitalization - The company's initiatives have led to tangible economic benefits for individual farmers and village collectives, contributing to rural revitalization and the development of new agricultural professionals [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of the pig market remains loose, and pig prices are still under pressure. However, a meeting in mid - September will affect market sentiment and cause price fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see for now [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: Pig prices fluctuated downward, with the main contract 2511 down 0.53% for the week [7][11]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, farmers have a sentiment of holding up prices, and spot prices are stable with fluctuations. But the inventory of breeding sows in September corresponds to the peak of the previous increase cycle, and the number of newborn piglets six months ago increased, so there is supply pressure. According to Mysteel data, the planned slaughter volume in September increased month - on - month. The meeting on September 16 will affect market sentiment. On the demand side, the demand in the north has slightly recovered due to the temperature drop, and the slaughterhouse operating rate has continued to rise, but the growth rate has declined in the latest week [7]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - **Price Movement**: Pig futures prices declined this week, with the main contract 2511 down 0.53% for the week [7][11]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 12, the net short position of the top 20 holders in pig futures increased by 891 lots to 15,745 lots, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 428, a decrease of 2 lots from last week [17]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2511 and lh2601 contracts was - 435, and the spread between lh2511 and lh2603 contracts was 195 [21]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - **Pig and Piglet Prices**: The average national pig market price this week was 13.49 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.38 yuan/kg from last week and a 2.1% decrease from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 28.00 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week and a 2.51% decrease from the same period last month [34]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: As of the week of August 28, the national pork market price was 24.83 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows this week was 32.51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [39]. - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of August 20, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 5.89, a decrease of 0.05 from the previous week [44]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: In late July 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.41 million heads, a decrease of 10,000 heads month - on - month and a 0.025% decrease year - on - year, reaching 103.6% of the normal inventory. According to Mysteel data, in August, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms decreased slightly by 0.83% month - on - month and increased by 1.86% year - on - year; in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it decreased slightly by 0.09% month - on - month and increased by 5.92% year - on - year [49]. - **Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, an increase of 7.16 million heads from the end of the previous quarter and an increase of 9.14 million heads year - on - year. According to Mysteel data, in August, the inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms increased by 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year; in 85 small and medium - sized farms in July, it increased by 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [55]. - **Pig Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In August, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 10.7035 million heads, an increase of 2.56% month - on - month and 23.49% year - on - year; in 85 small and medium - sized farms in July, it was 0.4737 million heads, a decrease of 1.44% month - on - month and an increase of 54.30% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary pigs this week was 123.47 kg, an increase of 0.07 kg from last week [60]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Breeding Profits**: As of September 12, the breeding profit of purchasing piglets reported a loss of 161.93 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 13.53 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 16.84 yuan/head, a decrease of 15.39 yuan/head month - on - month. The egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.02 yuan/head, with the weekly loss decreasing by 0.21 yuan/head, and the 817 meat - hybrid chicken breeding profit was 1.12 yuan/head [65]. - **Pork Imports**: In July 2025, China's pork imports were 90,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%; from January to July, the imports were 630,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [70]. - **Substitute Products**: As of the week of September 12, the price of white - striped chickens was 14.3 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of the week of September 11, the average national price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.40 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [73]. - **Feed Situation**: As of September 12, the spot price of soybean meal was 3079.43 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.86 yuan/ton from the previous week; as of September 11, the corn price was 2365.49 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.55 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 912.18, a decrease of 0.66% from last week; the price of fattening pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of July 2025, the monthly feed production was 2827.3 tons, a decrease of 110.4 tons month - on - month. According to Mysteel data, in July 2025, the sales of piglet feed decreased by 0.04% month - on - month and increased by 9.15% year - on - year [80][85][89]. - **CPI**: As of August 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [93]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Slaughter and Demand**: The operating rate of slaughter enterprises increased, and the frozen - product storage capacity remained stable. As of July 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 31.66 million heads, an increase of 5.32% from the previous month. In July 2025, the national catering revenue was 450.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [94][100]. 3.7 Pig - Related Stocks The report provides trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis content [101][104].

Core Viewpoint - The livestock industry is undergoing significant regulatory changes aimed at controlling pig production capacity, with a focus on improving the supply-demand balance and potentially increasing pig prices in the future [1][4]. Group 1: Event Overview - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will hold a meeting on September 16 to discuss pig production capacity control, with participation from 25 major pig farming companies, including Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [1]. - The meeting will cover the current production situation, measures taken by companies to comply with capacity control, and plans for the second half of the year and next year [1]. Group 2: Policy Developments - Since late May, multiple policies have been introduced to regulate the pig farming industry, including a halt on expanding breeding sows and controlling the weight of pigs for slaughter [2]. - A target has been set to reduce the number of breeding sows by approximately 1 million, bringing the total down to 39.5 million [2]. Group 3: Implementation Status - The average slaughter weight of pigs has been decreasing, with a reported decline of 3.65% as of early September [3]. - Muyuan Foods plans to reduce its breeding sow inventory from 3.431 million to 3.3 million by the end of the year, a reduction of 3.82% [3]. - Many provinces have reported a significant decrease in the movement of pigs, with companies ceasing to issue feeding tickets [3]. Group 4: Price Outlook - The current breeding sow inventory stands at 40.42 million, slightly above the target of 39.5 million, indicating room for further reductions [4]. - Pig prices have been fluctuating at low levels, with August averages below 14 yuan per kilogram and recent prices in Guangxi dropping to below 12.5 yuan per kilogram [4]. - If pig prices continue to decline, it may trigger a new round of active capacity reduction, alongside passive reductions driven by policy, leading to an improved supply-demand situation [4]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The pig farming sector is currently undervalued, and companies like Lihua Agricultural Technology are recommended for investment due to their stable operations and growth potential in pig production [5]. - Lihua's pig output is expected to exceed 1 million heads in 2024 and reach 2 million in 2025, with a significant reduction in production costs anticipated [5].

Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - Recent rise in government bond yields, with 10-year yields surpassing 1.8% and 30-year yields exceeding 2.1%, correlating with the strength of the A-share market, indicating a "stock-bond seesaw effect" [1] - The increase in yields is attributed to a shift in investor risk appetite, as regulatory policies aimed at reducing competition may lead to rising prices, diminishing the investment value of bonds [1] - The market is currently experiencing pressure on bond yields due to the potential resumption of government bond trading, which was previously halted by the central bank [4] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - August CPI showed a significant decline, entering negative territory with a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, primarily driven by weak food prices, which fell by 4.3% [1][2] - Core CPI, however, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the highest level in 18 months, indicating some resilience in core consumer prices [2] - PPI also showed a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, but this was an improvement from the previous value of -3.6%, suggesting some stabilization in producer prices [2] Group 3: Policy Implications - The central bank emphasizes the importance of promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration in monetary policy, with measures in place to control production in traditional industries [3] - Ongoing economic challenges include weak real estate sales and insufficient consumer demand, which limit the effectiveness of policy measures aimed at stabilizing prices [3] - The central bank's potential purchase of government bonds in the secondary market could support the struggling real estate market and consumer spending, countering the negative impact of rising yields on the stock market [5]

Core Viewpoint - Shennong Group's stock has shown significant growth this year, with a notable increase in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating strong operational performance and investor interest [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of September 12, Shennong Group's stock price increased by 2.06%, reaching 34.20 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 99.56 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.56% [1]. - The stock has risen by 23.47% year-to-date, with recent gains of 8.99% over the last five trading days, 7.21% over the last 20 days, and 5.82% over the last 60 days [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to June 2025, Shennong Group reported a revenue of 2.798 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 388 million CNY, which is a remarkable increase of 212.65% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 331 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 131 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder and Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, Shennong Group had 20,700 shareholders, an increase of 3.64% from the previous period, with an average of 25,338 circulating shares per shareholder, down by 3.52% [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the sixth largest with 2.0472 million shares, while several other funds have made notable changes in their holdings [3].

Core Insights - New Wufeng's stock price increased by 2.06% on September 12, reaching 6.92 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 8.728 billion CNY [1] - The company reported a year-to-date stock price increase of 11.61% and a 10.19% increase over the last five trading days [1] Company Overview - New Wufeng, established on June 26, 2001, and listed on June 9, 2004, is located in Changsha, Hunan Province [1] - The company's main business includes pig farming, meat sales, and feed processing, with revenue composition: 84.21% from pig sales, 7.39% from slaughter and cold storage, 4.31% from fresh meat, 1.78% from trade and others, 1.60% from frozen meat, and 0.71% from feed [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, New Wufeng achieved operating revenue of 3.688 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 14.08%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 45.234 million CNY, up 118.32% [2] - The company has distributed a total of 311 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3] Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 2.13% to 76,100, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 2.17% to 13,354 shares [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include various ETFs, with notable changes in holdings, such as an increase of 438,300 shares for Guotai Zhongzheng Livestock Breeding ETF and a new entry from Southern Zhongzheng 1000 ETF [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Zhengbang Technology has shown significant stock performance and financial growth in recent months, indicating potential investment opportunities [1][2]. - As of September 12, Zhengbang Technology's stock price increased by 9.59% year-to-date, with notable gains of 7.74% in the last five trading days, 13.07% in the last twenty days, and 18.52% in the last sixty days [1]. - The company reported a revenue of 6.838 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 112.17%, and a net profit of 202 million yuan, which is a 258.18% increase compared to the previous year [2]. Group 2 - Zhengbang Technology's main business segments include pig farming (59.63% of revenue), complete feed (38.31%), veterinary medicine (0.92%), concentrated feed (0.62%), and other supplementary products (0.51%) [1]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 29.601 billion yuan, with a trading volume of 324 million yuan on September 12 [1]. - Since its A-share listing, Zhengbang Technology has distributed a total of 2.864 billion yuan in dividends, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3].