Core Insights - The pet economy in China is experiencing significant growth, with the market size expected to exceed 300 billion yuan in 2024, driven by emotional consumption and the increasing demand for high-end products and services [1][2][3] Market Growth - The overall pet market in China is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.3% from 2015 to 2024, reaching 3002 billion yuan in 2024, with the dog market growing by 4.6% and the cat market by 10.7% [2] - By 2027, the pet market is expected to surpass 4000 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 12.6% from 2015 to 2027 [2] Consumer Demographics - The primary consumers of the pet economy are the post-90s and post-00s generations, accounting for 41.2% and 25.6% of pet owners respectively, alongside the "silver economy" demographic, which is increasingly willing to spend on pets [8][9] Market Segmentation - The pet food and pet medical sectors are the two main pillars of the pet economy, with pet food expected to reach 1585.1 billion yuan and pet medical services 840.6 billion yuan in 2024 [4] - The pet food market is dominated by foreign brands, but domestic brands are gaining traction, particularly in the mid-to-high-end segments [4][5] Export and Internationalization - In 2024, China's pet food export value is projected to reach 10.529 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 22.07%, indicating a strong international demand for Chinese pet products [5] Consumer Trends - There is a noticeable shift towards premium and personalized pet products, with younger consumers increasingly seeking customized food options and health management solutions for their pets [9][10] - The pet economy is evolving from basic care to a focus on quality and emotional well-being, with consumers prioritizing nutrition and mental health for their pets [10][11] Financial Performance - The pet industry has shown strong financial performance, with many listed companies reporting significant profit growth in early 2025, including major players like Guobao Pet and Zhongchong Co., which achieved record net profits [12] - The pet economy index has risen over 20% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming major stock indices, reflecting investor confidence in the sector [12] Future Outlook - The pet economy is expected to continue evolving, driven by emotional needs, consumption upgrades, and the expansion of service scenarios, presenting structural opportunities for growth in food and medical sectors [13]

策 略 研 究 华福证券 策略定期研究 2025 年 5 月 12 日 大事记下的市场运行 投资要点： 本周（5/5-5/9）市场偏强震荡，全 A 收涨 2.32%。从指数情况看，微 盘股、创业板指领涨，仅科创 50 收跌。从风格情况看，先进制造、金融地 产领涨，科技、医药医疗涨幅居后。本周 31 个申万行业全部收涨，国防军 工、通信、电力设备领涨，商贸零售、电子、房地产涨幅较窄。 策 略 定 期 报 告 市场观察：股债收益差下降，行业轮动强度上升。（1）市场估值：股 债收益差下降至 1.4%，位于+1 标准差、+2 标准差之间。估值分化系数有 所上升。（2）市场情绪：市场情绪回暖，行业轮动强度上升。市场小盘风 格占优，微盘股指数跑赢市场，主题热度主要聚集在商业航天、军工信息 化、通用航空。（3）市场结构：市场量能环比上升，国防军工、家用电器、 计算机多头个股占比居前，石油石化、商贸零售、农林牧渔内部或存在α 机会。（4）市场资金：本周陆股通周内日平均成交金额较上周上升 187 亿 元，本周陆股通周内日平均成交笔数较上周上升 58 万笔。陆股通成交额排 名前三的标的为比亚迪、宁德时代、新易盛，近 5 日涨幅分 ...

图为第五届TOPS它博会宠物展现场。（新华社记者 方喆 摄） 新华网上海5月12日电（王若宇）2025世界品牌莫干山大会开幕当天，会场外天元宠物的展台人气爆 棚，与会企业家们纷纷驻足讨论，拍照分享。这不仅是因为展台本身的国风元素颇具吸引力，更缘于在 全方位扩大内需的政策引领下，宠物经济已经是当下炙手可热的话题之一。 宠物经济近几年迅速升温。艾媒咨询《2024-2025年中国宠物行业运行状况及消费市场监测报告》中预 测，今年国内宠物产业规模将达到8114亿元，两年后这一数字有望突破1万亿元。 然而，宠物产业在飞速发展的同时，也面临同质化竞争、价格竞争倾向明显，产品核心竞争力不足等问 题。引领宠物行业高质量发展，"热产业"背后亟需"冷思考"。 "热产业"背后"冷思考"：如何从规模突破转向价值突破？ 这几天，不仅仅是在莫干山，国家会展中心（上海）内也是人头攒动。正在举办的第五届TOPS它博会 吸引了1200家企业参与，展览品类涵盖宠物食品、用品、美容、保健、繁育等方方面面。新产品琳琅满 目，新理念层出不穷。 数据显示，2023年和2024年，相关产业规模的年增长幅度分别为20.1%和18.3%，国内宠物企业数量突 ...

Core Insights - The pet industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with pet ownership penetration reaching 22% in 2023 and an expected pet population of 120 million by 2024, leading to substantial consumer spending [1][11] - The emotional bond between pet owners and their pets is evolving, with younger generations viewing pets as family members rather than mere animals, which is reshaping consumer behavior and spending patterns [3][4][5] - The rise of pet-friendly commercial spaces and services reflects a growing demand for environments that accommodate both pets and their owners, enhancing social interactions and community engagement [7][9][10] Group 1: Market Trends - In 2024, the urban pet consumption market in China is projected to grow by 7.5%, reaching 300.2 billion yuan, with average annual spending of 2,961 yuan on dogs and 2,020 yuan on cats [11][12] - The pet-friendly commercial spaces are becoming increasingly popular, with over 20 such venues in Nanjing alone, indicating a shift in urban planning to accommodate pet owners [8][9] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - A significant portion of pet owners, particularly among the younger demographic, view their pets as companions and family members, with 90% of pet owners willing to refer to their pets as "family" or "friends" [3][4] - The emotional and social needs of pet owners are driving new consumption patterns, with increased spending on pet-related services such as insurance, grooming, and daycare [12][13] Group 3: Industry Innovations - The pet service industry is diversifying, with innovations in areas such as pet photography, training, and travel services, reflecting the growing market demand for specialized pet care [11][13] - Recent initiatives by public transport services, such as high-speed rail pet transport, highlight the increasing recognition of pets as integral members of families, further driving market growth [11] Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The introduction of national standards for pet care and management indicates a response to the growing concerns over pet welfare and industry practices, aiming to enhance consumer protection and service quality [14] - Ongoing discussions in legislative forums regarding animal welfare and management reflect a societal shift towards recognizing the importance of responsible pet ownership and care [14]

Summary of the Pet Industry Conference Insights Industry Overview - The pet food market is experiencing a consumption upgrade, with puffed food remaining dominant while high-end products like freeze-dried and baked foods are growing rapidly. The market potential for segmented demands based on pet type, age, and functionality is significant, with a trend towards scientific and refined pet care [1][4]. Key Trends in Pet Food - High-end low-temperature baked food is becoming a flagship product, with functional and segmented auxiliary product lines expanding. Brands are focusing on health and economic aspects of pet nutrition, with a notable reduction in novelty products and an increase in functional foods tailored for specific pet needs [2][4]. - The market for pet food is seeing a shift towards higher-end products, with baked and freeze-dried foods showing the highest growth rates. The demand for pet food is increasingly segmented by type, age, and function, reflecting a trend towards scientific pet care [1][4]. Pet Snacks and Supplies Market - The pet snacks and supplies market emphasizes interactivity and anthropomorphism, with emotional spending becoming evident. Brands like Maifudi are launching products such as ice cream and pet snack cakes to meet emotional needs of pet owners [1][5]. - New channels like Douyin live streaming are significantly boosting the rise of domestic brands, attracting younger consumers and increasing their preference for local products [1][6]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape in the pet industry is becoming more concentrated, with leading brands experiencing faster growth. Brands with strong supply chains and financial backing are increasing their market share, while weaker brands are exiting the market [1][8]. - In 2024, baked food saw the fastest growth, with brands like Xianlang and Fuleijiate showing remarkable performance, indicating the importance of product innovation and marketing [1][8]. Domestic Brand Performance - Domestic brands are expected to maintain over 30% growth in the coming years, with profit growth potentially outpacing revenue growth. Brands like Guobao are projected to see net profit levels rise significantly, indicating a phase of simultaneous volume and profit growth [1][9]. - If performance expectations are met, brands like Guobao, Yongtong, and Petty are likely to exceed forecasts in 2025, reflecting a positive industry trend [1][9]. Long-term Outlook - The Chinese pet food industry is expected to see the emergence of large-scale enterprises with market values exceeding 100 billion, particularly in the essential food segment. The current high industry sentiment and broad development space support this optimistic outlook [1][11].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [12] Core Views - The pet sector continues to show high prosperity, driven by domestic substitution and consumption upgrades, leading to a dual increase in volume and price [1][2] - The industry is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "value creation," with leading companies shifting from "manufacturing" to "intelligent manufacturing" through formula innovation and precise demand capture [2][17] - The domestic pet food market remains strong, with a significant increase in sales and exports, indicating robust growth potential for domestic brands [2][17] Summary by Sections Pet Sector - The fifth TOPS Pet Expo in Shanghai showcased over 1,200 exhibitors and 8,000+ brands, reflecting strong growth momentum in the pet industry, with a 43% year-on-year increase in attendance [1][16] - Trends in pet food are shifting towards precision nutrition, with a focus on age-specific feeding and high-end production techniques [1][16] - Key recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., Petty Co., and Lusi Co., with additional recommendations for pet medical and product companies [2][17] Swine Sector - As of May 10, the average price of live pigs was 14.90 yuan/kg, showing a slight decline, with production capacity continuing to grow [3][18] - The industry is facing a potential downturn in profitability due to weak demand and seasonal price declines [3][19] - Recommended companies include leading players such as Wens Foodstuffs and Muyuan Foods, with a focus on core assets [19] Poultry Sector - The white chicken segment is facing uncertainties in breeding imports, with a significant decline in the number of breeding stock updated [20][21] - The yellow chicken segment is expected to benefit from improved consumer demand, with stable prices observed [23] - Recommended companies include Shengnong Development and Lihua Co. for white chicken, and Wens Foodstuffs for yellow chicken [22][23] Planting Sector - The government emphasizes agricultural technology innovation and self-sufficiency in food security, with a focus on biological breeding [25][26] - Recommended companies in the seed sector include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong, with additional focus on agricultural water-saving technologies [25][26] Feed and Animal Health Sector - Hai Da Group is highlighted for its market share growth and consistent performance in the feed sector [27] - The animal health sector is seeing new opportunities in pet health products, with recommended companies including KQ Bio and Zhongmu Co. [28]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Short-term consumption weakness has led to a slight decline in pig prices, but high prices for piglets and sows indicate optimistic expectations for the future [4][6] - The pig farming sector shows low valuation opportunities, while the pet sector continues to strengthen the logic of domestic brand rise [7][25] - The overall agricultural index underperformed the market by 0.93 percentage points during the week [29] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - After the May Day holiday, consumer support was insufficient, leading to a slight decline in national pig prices. As of May 9, the average selling price of pigs was 14.79 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg week-on-week, reflecting a 0.14% decrease [4][15] - The average daily slaughter volume of sample enterprises was 148,800 pigs, a decrease of 780 pigs from the previous week [4][15] Weekly Viewpoint - The pig sector shows low valuation opportunities, with the supply side not yet recovering to the levels of the same period in 2023. The demand side is supported by macro policies that boost consumption recovery [25] - Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Juxing Agriculture, Huadong Food, and Tiankang Biological [7][25] Market Performance (May 5-9) - The agricultural index rose by 0.99%, underperforming the market by 0.93 percentage points, with the fishery sector leading the gains [29][32] - Notable stock performances included *ST Jiawo (+13.47%), Guotou Zhonglu (+12.05%), and Xuelong Biological (+11.04%) [29][35] Price Tracking (May 5-9) - As of May 9, the national average price for pigs was 14.82 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price for piglets was 36.87 yuan/kg, also down 0.01 yuan/kg [41] - The average profit for self-bred pigs was 84.33 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.72 yuan/head week-on-week [41] Key News (May 5-9) - Seven departments jointly issued an implementation opinion to enhance the overall effectiveness of the agricultural science and technology innovation system, emphasizing the importance of technological innovation in agricultural modernization [36][37]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rise of new consumption brands and the structural opportunities within the consumer sector, which has attracted significant investment attention since the second half of last year [2][3] - The consumer sector is not a single-direction track but encompasses various styles of assets, including cyclical, defensive, and growth categories, with new consumption brands emerging rapidly [2] - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a turning point for the consumer sector, as structural opportunities have begun to surface this year after a prolonged downturn since February 2021 [2] Group 2 - New consumption is defined as new brands rather than new channels or supply chains, with breakthroughs occurring when new consumer habits form or brand influence expands [2] - Fund managers who recognized the trend early have seen substantial returns, with some funds achieving returns of 54.63% and 27.79% year-to-date as of May 8 [3] - The rise of new consumption brands is attributed to the emergence of a younger generation of consumers who prioritize individual expression and are willing to pay a premium for products that align with their tastes [4] Group 3 - The current consumer market is experiencing a new long cycle, driven by younger demographics that value personal satisfaction and have a higher willingness to pay [4] - Companies that demonstrate strong product capabilities in niche markets, such as trendy toys, gold jewelry, and pet products, are expected to seize broader opportunities in the global market [4]

Core Insights - The pet industry is experiencing significant growth, driven by diverse consumer demands and technological advancements in pet products [1][4] Group 1: Event Overview - The 2025 TOPS Pet Expo was held at the Shanghai National Exhibition and Convention Center from May 8 to 11, covering over 100,000 square meters with more than 1,200 exhibitors and over 8,000 brands [1] - The expo showcased a wide range of products, including pet food, supplies, and medical services, reflecting the industry's diversification and increasing consumer engagement [1] Group 2: Trends in Pet Nutrition - The pet food sector is the largest sub-industry within the pet market, characterized by a shift towards scientific, refined, and anthropomorphic feeding practices [2] - Brands are moving from basic feeding to customized nutrition, addressing specific needs at different life stages of pets, such as high-quality protein for kittens and joint health for older cats [2] - New product innovations include advanced technologies like micro-emulsification to enhance nutrient absorption and formulations that support pet health, such as Omega-3 for fur care [2][3] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The pet supplies segment is also evolving with digital and smart innovations, such as AI-enabled litter boxes and UV sterilizing water dispensers, enhancing pet care [4] - The market potential is underscored by data indicating that the urban pet consumption market in China is projected to reach 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 7.5% from 2023, with expectations to exceed 400 billion yuan by 2027 [4] Group 4: Growth in Small and Exotic Pets - The small and exotic pet sector is expanding rapidly, with the expo's small pet area increasing by 120% year-on-year, and the overall market size surpassing 10 billion yuan [5] - The user base for small and exotic pets has exceeded 20 million, with over 60% being new pet owners, indicating a high growth rate from a low base [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [50] Core Insights - The report indicates that the breeding capacity of sows is expected to continue to decrease, with further potential for reduction in the future. The current valuation of the pig farming sector is at historical lows, presenting opportunities for low-position investments based on capacity reduction expectations [50] - In the poultry farming sector, the impact of avian influenza has limited the introduction of breeding stock for white feather chickens, leading to expectations of capacity reduction. Attention is drawn to leading companies in high-quality white feather chicken farming, while yellow feather chicken farming is expected to see profit improvements due to declining breeding costs [50] - In the feed sector, raw material cost pressures are expected to ease, and the concentration of leading companies is likely to continue to increase [50] - In the seed industry, trade frictions highlight food security concerns, and the commercialization of genetically modified organisms is progressing, with a focus on leading companies with research and development advantages [50] - The domestic pet market is expanding rapidly, with a focus on leading companies that cater to domestic demand [50] Industry Performance Review - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry underperformed the CSI 300 index, with an increase of 0.32% from April 25 to May 8, 2025, lagging behind the index by approximately 1.49 percentage points [16] - Among the sub-sectors, only feed and breeding recorded negative returns, down 0.08% and 1.02% respectively, while animal health, fishery, planting, and agricultural product processing saw positive returns of 5%, 2.19%, 2.08%, and 2% respectively [17][18] - Approximately 72% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns during the same period [18] - As of May 8, 2025, the overall price-to-book (PB) ratio of the SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry index was about 2.58 times, slightly recovering over the past two weeks, and remains at 57.2% of the historical valuation center since 2006, indicating a historical low [22] Key Industry Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three yuan pigs decreased slightly from 14.99 yuan/kg to 14.90 yuan/kg between April 25 and May 8, 2025. The breeding sow inventory reached 40.39 million heads at the end of March 2025, a decrease of 0.66% month-on-month but an increase of 1.2% year-on-year, indicating a normal holding level of 103.6% [26] - **Cost**: As of May 8, 2025, the spot price of corn was 2360.98 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase, while the spot price of soybean meal was 3300 yuan/ton, showing a slight decrease [28] - **Profitability**: As of May 9, 2025, the profit from self-breeding and self-raising pigs was 84.33 yuan/head, slightly down from the previous week, while the profit from purchasing piglets was 58.46 yuan/head, slightly up from the previous week [31] - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks in major production areas was 2.91 yuan/chick, showing a slight increase, while the average price of white feather broilers was 7.45 yuan/kg, showing a slight decrease, with a profit of -0.1 yuan/chick [33][36] - **Aquaculture**: The average wholesale price of crucian carp was 20.68 yuan/kg, and for carp, it was 14.29 yuan/kg, remaining stable over the past two weeks [38]