作者： 王育武 工业硅： 市场分析 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 2025-12-10，工业硅期货价格偏震荡运行，主力合约2601开于8305元/吨，最后收于8250元/吨，较前一 日结算变化（-185）元/吨，变化（-2.19）%。截止收盘，2601主力合约持仓171757手，2025-12-10仓单 总数为7780手，较前一日变化252手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格小幅回落。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9100-9300（0）元/吨；421# 硅在9500-9800（0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8900（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8900（0）元/吨。 昆明、黄埔港、西北、天津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 根据SMM报道，本周硅煤价格目前仍维持暂稳运行，但近期在原煤及焦煤价格波动下行的情况下，预 计部分地区硅煤价格后续将有松动的趋势。目前新疆无粘结硅煤均价约825元/吨、粘结硅煤价格区间约 1300-1650元/吨，陕西硅煤均价约880元/吨，内蒙古硅煤均价约1260元/吨，甘肃硅混煤均价约930元/ 吨、 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall price of industrial silicon continued to decline due to supply factors today, and attention should be paid to the support level of 8,000 yuan/ton [2]. - From the supply side, in Southwest China, the dry season in Yunnan and Sichuan has led to a significant increase in electricity prices, high production costs, and a sharp decline in the operating rate. In Northwest China, production maintains a high - operating state, offsetting the output contraction in the Southwest. However, it is necessary to focus on whether there are fluctuations in the operating rate in the Northwest next week [2]. - From the demand side, the actual demand for industrial silicon from polysilicon, organic silicon, and exports is insufficient, and only the demand from the aluminum alloy field is relatively stable, but it is difficult to change the overall weak demand pattern [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan; the position of the main contract was 171,757 lots, a decrease of 13,514 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 29,059 lots, an increase of 91 lots; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 7,780 lots, an increase of 252 lots; the price difference between the January - February contracts was - 10 yuan, an increase of 15 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract was 950 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan; the spot price of DMC was 13,625 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 2,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 451,660 tons, an increase of 48,860 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 22.28 tons, a decrease of 1,917.57 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 45,073.34 tons, a decrease of 25,159.39 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 21,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 6.5 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 16.05 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 30,923.01 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 74.84%, unchanged; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.682 million tons, a decrease of 94,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 30,923.01 tons, an increase of 7,427.67 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Beijing Economic - Technological Development Area Management Committee issued the "Several Measures for Promoting High - Quality Green and Low - Carbon Development (Version 2.0)", which mentioned promoting the large - scale development of distributed photovoltaics, with the proportion of photovoltaic installation on factory roofs in new industrial plant projects not less than 50% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the spot price has slightly declined and the futures price has dropped significantly, mainly due to the sharp decline of commodities such as coking coal and the lower - than - expected production reduction in the northwest region. The supply - demand pattern may improve after production cuts in the southwest, but consumer demand is average. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news, and there may be upward potential if there are relevant policies [1][2]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand situation is poor, consumption has declined significantly, inventory has continued to increase, and there is a large overall inventory pressure. The futures price rose significantly on December 9, 2025, mainly due to the establishment of a platform company, and the subsequent specific measures remain to be seen. The market is expected to be volatile [3][5]. 3. Summary of Each Section Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On December 9, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price dropped significantly, with the main contract 2601 opening at 8600 yuan/ton and closing at 8340 yuan/ton, a change of - 300 yuan/ton (- 3.47%). The main contract 2601 had a position of 185,271 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 7,528, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The industrial silicon spot price slightly declined. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9100 - 9300 (- 100) yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 (- 50) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in some regions such as Kunming, Huangpu Port, and the northwest decreased, while the price of 97 silicon remained stable [1]. - The organic silicon DMC was quoted at 13500 - 13700 (0) yuan/ton. After the price increase of major organic silicon products, downstream sentiment was wait - and - see. With the continuous fulfillment of pre - sale orders, enterprise inventory pressure was not high, and the market was expected to run stably in the short term [1]. - **Strategy** - Short - term range operation is recommended. If the futures price continues to decline significantly, long positions can be considered. There are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On December 9, 2025, the main contract of polysilicon futures showed a strong - side volatile trend, opening at 54285 yuan/ton and closing at 55610 yuan/ton, a change of 3.45% from the previous trading day. The main contract had a position of 68,874 lots (79,367 lots the previous day) and a trading volume of 158,738 lots [3]. - The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. N - type material was 49.60 - 55.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 29.10 (a 3.38% change), silicon wafer inventory was 21.30GW (a 9.23% change), polysilicon weekly output was 25800.00 tons (a 7.50% change), and silicon wafer output was 11.95GW (a - 0.58% change) [3]. - In December, silicon wafer enterprises significantly reduced production by about 16%, reaching a new low for the year. This was due to insufficient domestic demand and high procurement costs [4]. - The prices of battery chips and components remained stable [4]. - **Strategy** - Short - term range operation is recommended. Given the large price fluctuations, participants need to pay attention to risk control. There are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [5].

工业硅日报 工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 点评 8 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 8675 元/吨，日内跌幅 1.98%，持仓 减仓 9856 手至 18.7 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9648 元/吨，较上一交易 日下调 35 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格跌至 8900 元/吨，现货升水扩至 225 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 54545 元/吨，日内跌幅 2.65%，持仓减仓 18624 手至 7.94 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/吨，现货对主力贴水收 至 2245 元/吨。工业硅厂进一步减产但不及下游采购跌量，当前成交集中 在套保单或未交付前期订单，工业硅短期难见趋势。光伏产业链自下而上 延续高库存、降排产逻辑，降价情绪未向上蔓延。随着交易所提保限仓且 针对交割品进行扩容，市场多头资金部分撤离，晶硅跳空回调。由于近月 仓单增长较慢，盘面虚实偏高给予当前近月支撑，不建议投资者过度追 空。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUT ...

1 每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年12月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比有所减少3.29%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7.2万吨，环比减少12.19%.需求持续低迷. 多晶硅库存为29.1万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1215元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为74.84%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.38万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为206元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为673.76元/吨，再生铝开工率为61.5%，环比持平，处于高 位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年12月5日 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为9.1万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为8.2万吨，环比增长2.50%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为28.1万吨，处于低位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1190元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为74.84%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.46万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为196元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为738.38元/吨，再生铝开工率为61.5%，环比增加1.49%,处 于高位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧5 ...

3 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 8920 元/吨，日内跌幅 1.6%，持仓增 仓 6584 手至 19.4 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9745 元/吨，较上一交易日 持稳。最低交割品#421 价格涨至 9000 元/吨，现货贴水转至升水 40 元/ 吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2601 收于 57430 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.89%，持仓 减仓 1558 手至 12.77 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格涨至 52350 元/吨， 最低交割品硅料价格涨至 52350 元/吨，现货对主力贴水扩至 7390 元/吨。 供给延续南减北增节奏，难有明显减负，但需求有较大降幅空间，工业硅 重心有成本支撑、无向上驱动。光伏集中式项目收尾，海外需求同步下 滑，组件端大版型订单大幅缩水，产业链需求负反馈效应加剧，硅料厂坚 持减产不降价策略。随着交易所针对多晶硅提保限仓，近月挤仓情绪有所 淡化，但仓单不足情况下正套力量仍在，近月无深跌空间。建议投资者持 续跟踪持仓和仓单情况、谨慎为上。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 ...

1. Investment Ratings The provided reports do not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and consider buying on dips. Monitor macro - level changes and supply - side dynamics [1]. Alumina - The oversupply situation of alumina continues to suppress prices. Expect prices to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern, with the main contract's reference operating range shifting down to 2600 - 2800 yuan/ton. Observe actual production cuts and inventory inflection points [3]. Aluminum - Expect short - term aluminum prices to remain strong, with the main SHFE aluminum contract's reference operating range at 21500 - 22200 yuan/ton. Focus on the latest Fed monetary policy and domestic inventory drawdown sustainability [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is supported by cost and demand. Short - term prices are expected to be relatively strong, with the main contract's reference operating range at 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. Monitor scrap aluminum supply improvement and inventory drawdown [5]. Polysilicon - In December, there is an oversupply situation, and each link has inventory build - up expectations. The market is in a state of a strong futures market with low warehouse receipts and a weak spot market with oversupply. Adopt a wait - and - see trading strategy [7]. Industrial Silicon - Maintain the previous expectation of low - level oscillations in industrial silicon prices, with the main price fluctuation range at 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to end - of - year export demand decline and the impact of warehouse receipts flowing into the spot market [8]. Zinc - In the short term, the downward space of zinc prices is limited, but the fundamentals provide limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. Prices are likely to oscillate. Monitor the inflection point of TC and changes in refined zinc inventory, with the main contract's reference range at 22200 - 23000 [11]. Copper - The medium - to - long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the copper price's bottom center. Focus on overseas interest - rate cut expectations and smelting - end production cuts, with the main contract's support at 88500 - 89500 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Expect short - term wide - range oscillations in the lithium carbonate market, with the main contract's reference range at 92000 - 95000. Pay attention to the sustainability of year - end demand and the progress of large - scale plant复产 [16]. Nickel - Expect short - term range - bound oscillations in nickel prices, with the main contract's reference range at 116000 - 120000. Monitor macro - level expectation changes and Indonesian industrial policy news [19]. Stainless Steel - Expect short - term weak oscillations in stainless steel prices, with the main contract's reference operating range at 12300 - 12700. Focus on steel mills' production cut implementation and nickel - iron prices [20]. 3. Summary by Directory Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price rose 1.51% to 309300 yuan/ton; LME 0 - 3 spread fell 38.67% to 92 dollars/ton; import loss decreased 13.91% to - 16070.31 yuan/ton; some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [1]. Fundamental Data - In October, tin ore imports increased 33.49%, SMM refined tin production increased 53.09%, refined tin imports decreased 58.55%, and exports decreased 15.33%. Inventory increased, with SHEF inventory rising 2.09% and social inventory rising 2.23% [1]. Market Analysis - Macro: US ADP data decline strengthens Fed rate - cut expectations. Supply: Tin ore supply is tight, with limited improvement expected this year. Demand: Tin solder enterprises in South China are more resilient than those in East China [1]. Alumina Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose 0.41% to 21800 yuan/ton; electrolytic aluminum import loss decreased 77.1 yuan/ton to - 1929 yuan/ton; month - to - month spreads remained unchanged [3]. Fundamental Data - In November, alumina production decreased 4.44%, domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased 2.82%, and overseas electrolytic aluminum production decreased 3.50%. Some开工 rates increased slightly, and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased 2.77% [3]. Market Analysis - Supply: Some enterprises cut production, but overall supply is still abundant, and imports increase supply pressure. Inventory: Domestic visible inventory is accumulating. Cost: Cost support may decline. Price: Expected to oscillate at the bottom [3]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose 0.41% to 21800 yuan/ton; electrolytic aluminum import loss decreased 77.1 yuan/ton to - 1929 yuan/ton; month - to - month spreads remained unchanged [3]. Fundamental Data - In November, domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased 2.82%, and overseas electrolytic aluminum production decreased 3.50%. Some开工 rates increased slightly, and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased 2.77% [3]. Market Analysis - Macro: Fed rate - cut expectations boost market sentiment, but Japanese central bank's potential rate hike increases volatility. Domestic: Lower aluminum prices stimulate downstream procurement, and inventory decreases [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained unchanged; some scrap - to - refined aluminum price spreads increased. Month - to - month spreads changed [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased 5.74%, and primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased 5.84%. Some开工 rates increased, and recycled aluminum alloy social inventory decreased 1.59% [5]. Market Analysis - Supply: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and cost support is strong. Demand: Automobile parts orders support demand. Price: Short - term prices are expected to be strong [5]. Polysilicon Price and Spread - Polysilicon spot prices stabilized, and futures prices oscillated higher. The main contract rose 1115 yuan/ton to 57430 yuan/ton. Some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [7]. Fundamental Data - Weekly and monthly polysilicon and silicon wafer production decreased. Polysilicon imports increased, and exports decreased. Inventory increased, with polysilicon inventory rising 3.69% and silicon wafer inventory rising 4.17% [7]. Market Analysis - The market is in a state of a strong futures market with low warehouse receipts and a weak spot market with oversupply. In December, downstream production is expected to decline significantly, and polysilicon may face inventory build - up pressure [7]. Industrial Silicon Price and Spread - East China oxygen - enriched SI5530 industrial silicon spot price fell 0.52% to 9500 yuan/ton; futures price oscillated lower. Some month - to - month spreads changed [8]. Fundamental Data - In November, national industrial silicon production decreased 11.17%, and some regional production and开工 rates decreased. Organic silicon DMC production increased 3.82%, and industrial silicon exports decreased 35.82%. Inventory increased slightly [8]. Market Analysis - Supply: Production is expected to decline slightly, but demand may also decrease. Inventory: Warehouse receipts will flow into the spot market, increasing supply pressure. Price: Expected to oscillate at a low level [8]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose 0.22% to 22790 yuan/ton; import loss decreased 326.75 yuan/ton to - 5143 yuan/ton; some month - to - month spreads changed [11]. Fundamental Data - In November, refined zinc production decreased 3.56%. In October, imports decreased 16.94%, and exports increased 243.79%. Some开工 rates were stable, and LME inventory increased 1.87% [11]. Market Analysis - Supply: TC decline compresses smelting profits, and export space opens, reducing supply pressure. Demand: Some improvement in demand structure, but terminal demand is stable. Price: Expected to oscillate [11]. Copper Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose 0.36% to 88980 yuan/ton; some spreads changed. Arbitrage loss decreased 28.61 yuan/ton to - 1433 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In November, electrolytic copper production increased 1.05%. In October, imports decreased 15.61%. Some开工 rates decreased, and domestic social inventory decreased 11.96% [13]. Market Analysis - Macro: Rate - cut expectations boost copper prices. Supply: Concerns about supply shortages persist, and CSPT may cut production. Demand: High copper prices still see spot premiums and stable processing - end开工 rates [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price fell 0.05% to 94350 yuan/ton; month - to - month spreads changed [16]. Fundamental Data - In November, lithium carbonate production increased 3.35%, demand increased 5.11%, imports increased 21.86%, and exports increased 63.05%. Inventory decreased, with total inventory decreasing 23.36% [16]. Market Analysis - Price: The futures market fell. Supply: A new lithium mine project approval stirs the market. Demand: Demand is optimistic, but concerns remain about the sustainability of year - end demand [16]. Nickel Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose 0.08% to 120000 yuan/ton; LME 0 - 3 spread rose 3.53% to - 195 dollars/ton; import loss decreased 39.64% to - 874 yuan/ton [19]. Fundamental Data - Chinese refined nickel production decreased 9.38%, and imports decreased 65.66%. SHFE inventory increased 2.48%, and LME inventory decreased 0.51% [19]. Market Analysis - Macro: Market expects Fed rate hike, and Sino - US call eases sentiment. Supply: Refined nickel spot transactions are average, and nickel ore prices are under pressure. Demand: Stainless steel demand is weak, and nickel sulfate demand is expanding [19]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - 304/2B stainless steel prices remained unchanged; some month - to - month spreads changed [20]. Fundamental Data - Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased 0.72%, and Indonesian production increased 0.36%. Imports increased 3.18%, and exports decreased 14.43%. 300 - series social inventory increased 1.92% [20]. Market Analysis - Macro: Fed rate - hike expectations and Chinese fiscal policies. Supply: Nickel - iron production increases, and supply pressure remains. Demand: It is the off - season, and demand is weak. Price: Expected to oscillate weakly [20].

光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 工业硅&多晶硅：量价分离，底部明确 p 2 工业硅&多晶硅：量价分离，底部明确 硅策略月报 2025 年 1 2 月 1 | 总 | 结 | | --- | --- | | 1.供给：据百川，预计11月国内工业硅产量38.52万吨，同比下滑2.5%，环比下滑4.9%。月度开炉数减少47台至257台，开炉率下滑6.91%至32.3%。 | | | 西北地区，新疆大厂月内关停11台矿热炉，甘肃新开1台；西南地区，云南关停21台矿热炉，四川关停25台，重庆关停1台。其他地区，内蒙及 | | | 河南各新开1台。 | | | 2.需求：11月多晶硅产量下滑1.86吨至11.9万吨，同比增长5.3%，环比下滑13.6%。11月DMC产量增加1.1万吨至21.2万吨，同比下滑1.5%，环比 | | | 增长5.5%。多晶硅联合限产限售下，现货普遍报价坚挺，因下游订单收缩，硅片率先减产降价，目前晶硅龙头企业与下游根据限售开启新订单， | | | 少量长单签至年末。因下游对高价较为抵触，大部分仍在协商中 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [4] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [4] Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are not strongly driven, and the balance sheet may be less optimistic than previously expected due to lower - than - expected exports and the impact of the "anti - involution" in the silicone industry. The short - term industrial silicon futures price may oscillate between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, although the fundamentals have weakened significantly, leading silicon material companies are determined to maintain prices, resulting in a high virtual - to - real ratio of the PS2601 contract. Short - term polysilicon volatility has increased, and investors are advised to operate with caution [3][15][17] Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2601 contract of industrial silicon closed at 9,130 yuan/ton this week, up 170 yuan/ton from last week. The spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 remained flat at 9,550 yuan/ton, while the price of Xinjiang 99 silicon decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 8,900 yuan/ton. The PS2601 contract of polysilicon closed at 56,425 yuan/ton, up 3,065 yuan/ton from last week. The average transaction price of N - type re - feeding material of polysilicon remained flat at 53,200 yuan/ton [9][10] 2. November Centralized Cancellations, Focus on New Warehouse Receipt Registrations - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price of industrial silicon fluctuated this week. In December, the total number of open furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan may drop below 20. The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.2 million tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.18 million tons. Due to weaker - than - expected organic silicon and export demand, it is difficult to reduce inventory from December to the first quarter of next year. Northern silicon factories conduct hedging when the price rises, and downstream buyers purchase based on rigid demand [11] - **Organic Silicon**: The price of organic silicon rose slightly this week. The overall enterprise operating rate was 75.43%, with a weekly output of 49,900 tons, up 1.42% from the previous week, and inventory of 44,700 tons, up 2.05%. Organic silicon monomer factories announced a production cut plan on December 1, but the action is not obvious yet. The market is determined to maintain prices, but demand is weak [11][12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price of polysilicon fluctuated this week. The prices of dense re - feeding material and granular material of leading manufacturers remained above 51 - 53 yuan/kg and 50 - 51 yuan/kg respectively. The low - price range showed signs of loosening. The planned production in December is expected to be 115,000 tons. As of November 30, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 281,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous week. It is difficult for the spot price to rise against the trend [12] - **Silicon Wafers**: The price of silicon wafers dropped significantly this week. The prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers fell to 1.20/1.25/1.55 yuan/piece. The average price of each size has dropped to or below the cash cost. Production cuts are obvious, and the planned production in December is expected to be 45GW. As of November 27, the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 19.5GW, up 0.78GW from the previous week [13] - **Battery Cells**: The price of battery cells continued to decline this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 battery cells dropped to 0.285, 0.275, and 0.285 yuan/watt respectively. As of November 24, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 12.05GW, up 1.84GW from the previous week. Although there are production cut plans in December, it is difficult to completely improve the supply - demand situation [13] - **Components**: The price of components remained basically stable this week. The mainstream delivery price of centralized components was 0.64 - 0.70 yuan/watt, and that of distributed projects for large customers was 0.66 - 0.70 yuan/watt. Some large - scale procurement projects showed demand for high - power components above 700W, with quotes ranging from 0.72 - 0.75 yuan/watt. Demand has declined significantly, and new orders are scarce. The planned production in December may drop significantly, and the domestic planned production is only 37GW. As of November 10, the finished product inventory of Chinese photovoltaic components was 30.2GW, down 0.1GW from the previous week [14] 3. Investment Suggestions - **Industrial Silicon**: The short - term industrial silicon futures price may oscillate between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Investors can focus on range - trading opportunities [3][15] - **Polysilicon**: Due to increased short - term volatility, investors are advised to operate with caution [3][17] 4. Hot News - A polysilicon plant with an annual output of 30,000 tons will be built in Morocco. From January to October, the cumulative installed solar power generation capacity in China was 1.14 billion kilowatts, with a year - on - year increase of 43.8%. The first - phase project of Inner Mongolia Xingfa's industrial silicon project was successfully capped [18] 5. Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - The report provides high - frequency data charts for industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including prices, production, and inventory data [20][30][40]