Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side's production schedule has decreased and remains at a low level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9360 - 9690 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production schedule continues to increase, while the demand side shows continuous decline in silicon wafer, cell, and component production. Overall demand is in a continuous recession, and cost support has strengthened. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 49105 - 51055 [11]. - The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [15]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 77,000 tons, a 2.67% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 74,000 tons, a 3.89% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains sluggish. Polysilicon inventory is 249,000 tons, at a high level; organic silicon inventory is 78,100 tons, at a high level with a production profit of 373 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 71.38%, flat compared to the previous week and higher than the historical average; aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 37,200 tons, at a high level [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 2789 yuan/ton, and cost support has weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On July 23, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 225 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 547,000 tons, a 0.72% decrease from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 173,050 tons, a 0.60% decrease; major port inventory is 120,000 tons, a 3.22% decrease [6]. - Market: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closes above MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the production was 23,000 tons, a 0.87% increase from the previous week. The estimated production schedule for July is 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase from the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week, silicon wafer production was 11.1GW, a 3.47% decrease from the previous week, and inventory was 160,200 tons, an 11.63% decrease. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. In June, cell production was 56.19GW, a 6.73% decrease from the previous month, and last week, the inventory of cell external sales factories was 9.94GW, a 37.71% decrease. Currently, cell production is in a loss state. In June, component production was 46.3GW, a 10.61% decrease from the previous month. The estimated component production for July is 45.45GW, a 1.83% decrease. Currently, component production is profitable [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,010 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 8990 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On July 23, the price of N - type dense material was 45,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 4080 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [12]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory is 249,000 tons, a 9.78% decrease from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [12]. - Market: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closes above MA20 [12]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and long positions are decreasing [12]. 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts have decreased, with the 09 contract closing at 9525 yuan/ton, a 1.35% decrease from the previous day [18]. - Spot prices of various types of silicon in East China have generally increased, with the price of non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon increasing by 3.17% to 9750 yuan/ton [18]. - Social inventory has decreased by 0.73% to 547,000 tons, and sample enterprise inventory has decreased by 0.60% to 173,050 tons [18]. Polysilicon - Futures prices of most contracts have increased, with the 09 contract closing at 50,080 yuan/ton, a 1.99% increase from the previous day [21]. - Silicon wafer production has increased by 0.7GW to 12.9GW, and inventory has decreased by 7.5GW to 26.5GW [21]. - Cell external sales factory weekly inventory has decreased by 6.02GW to 9.94GW, a 37.72% decrease [21]. - Component monthly production has decreased by 5.5GW to 46.3GW, and domestic inventory has decreased by 26.54GW to 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease [21]. 3. Other Aspects - Industrial silicon price - basis and delivery product price difference trends show the historical changes in basis and the price difference between 421 and 553 silicon [23]. - Industrial silicon inventory trends show the historical changes in delivery warehouse, port inventory, and sample enterprise inventory [26]. - Industrial silicon production and capacity utilization trends show the historical changes in sample enterprise weekly production, monthly production by specification, and sample enterprise operating rate [30]. - Industrial silicon component cost trends show the historical changes in power prices, silica prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices in major production areas [35]. - Industrial silicon cost - sample area trends show the historical changes in cost and profit of 421 silicon in Sichuan, 421 silicon in Yunnan, and oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang [37]. - Industrial silicon weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets show the historical changes in supply, demand, and balance of industrial silicon [39][42]. - Industrial silicon downstream - organic silicon - DMC price and production trends show the historical changes in DMC capacity utilization, profit, cost, production, and price [45]. - Industrial silicon downstream - organic silicon - downstream price trends show the historical changes in the prices of 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 [47]. - Industrial silicon downstream - organic silicon - import - export and inventory trends show the historical changes in DMC import, export, and inventory [50]. - Industrial silicon downstream - aluminum alloy - price and supply trends show the historical changes in waste aluminum recycling, social inventory, aluminum scrap import, un - forged aluminum alloy import - export, SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price, and import ADC12 cost and profit [53]. - Industrial silicon downstream - aluminum alloy - inventory and production trends show the historical changes in the monthly production of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly operating rate of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and the social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots [56]. - Industrial silicon downstream - aluminum alloy - demand (automobile and wheel hub) shows the historical changes in automobile monthly production and aluminum alloy wheel hub export [58]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - fundamental trends show the historical changes in polysilicon industry cost, price, inventory, production, operating rate, and demand [63]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - supply - demand balance sheet shows the historical changes in polysilicon supply, demand, and balance [66]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - silicon wafer trends show the historical changes in silicon wafer price, production, inventory, demand, and net export [69]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - cell trends show the historical changes in cell price, production, inventory, operating rate, and export [72]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - photovoltaic component trends show the historical changes in component price, inventory, production, and export [75]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - photovoltaic accessory trends show the historical changes in photovoltaic coating price, photovoltaic film import - export, photovoltaic glass production and export, high - purity quartz sand price, and solder strip import - export [78]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - component component cost - profit trends (210mm) show the historical changes in the silicon material cost, silicon wafer cost, and profit of 210mm double - sided double - glass components [81].

Report 1: Glass and Soda Ash Futures and Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the market sentiment declined, and soda ash prices followed suit. Coal production cuts boosted market bullish sentiment, and the market has expectations for the elimination of backward production capacity. The overall macro - market sentiment is warm, and the stock market and commodities are rebounding. However, soda ash still has an obvious oversupply situation, and glass also faces over - capacity issues. Both markets need to track the implementation of relevant policies [1]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - **Glass**:华北报价 rose 0.83% to 1210 yuan/ton,华东报价 rose 0.80% to 1260 yuan/ton,华中报价 rose 2.63% to 1170 yuan/ton, and华南报价 remained unchanged at 1290 yuan/ton. Glass 2505 fell 2.21% to 1372 yuan/ton, and glass 2509 fell 3.04% to 1211 yuan/ton. The 05 basis increased by 20.20% [1]. - **Soda Ash**:华东报价 rose 4.07% to 1280 yuan/ton,华中报价 rose 4.17% to 1250 yuan/ton. Soda ash 2505 fell 1.63% to 1452 yuan/ton, and soda ash 2509 fell 2.51% to 1338 yuan/ton. The 05 basis increased by 19.05% [1]. Supply - Soda ash production rate increased by 3.42% to 84.10%, and weekly output increased by 3.41% to 73.32 million tons. Float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.38% to 15.78 million tons, and photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 2.70% to 91840 tons [1]. Inventory - Glass factory inventory decreased by 3.22% to 6493.90 million cubic meters. Soda ash factory inventory increased by 2.26% to 190.56 million tons, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 3.61% to 24.66 million tons. Glass factory soda ash inventory days increased by 11.34% to 23.4 days [1]. Real Estate Data - New construction area increased by 2.99% to - 18.73%, construction area decreased by 7.56% to - 33.33%, completion area increased by 15.67% to - 11.68%, and sales area increased by 12.13% to - 1.55% [1]. Report 2: Log Futures Daily Report Core Viewpoints - Recently, the sentiment of commodities has improved under the tone of anti - involution and stable growth, and log futures rose significantly last week. Currently, log demand is in the off - season, and weak demand drags down spot prices. In the context of strong expectations, attention should be paid to market sentiment changes, log supply, and inventory. Buying on dips can be considered [2]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - Log 2507 fell 1.79% to 818 yuan/cubic meter, log 2509 fell 1.90% to 823 yuan/cubic meter, log 2511 fell 2.05% to 826 yuan/cubic meter, and log 2601 fell to 835.5 yuan/cubic meter. The 9 - 11 spread increased by 2.5 to - 3 yuan/cubic meter, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 2.5 to - 12.5 yuan/cubic meter [2]. Supply and Demand - Last week, inventory started to accumulate, increasing by 7 million cubic meters. As of July 18, the total national coniferous log inventory was 329 million cubic meters. Demand increased by 0.36 million cubic meters last week. As of July 18, the average daily log delivery volume was 6.24 million cubic meters [2]. Report 3: Polysilicon Futures and Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The current futures price has reached the previous expectation, and the arbitrage window is open. The upstream enterprises have hedging needs. With the approaching of the delivery month, investors need to pay attention to position control and risk management. Whether the price will rise further in the long - term depends on the smoothness of the price transmission mechanism and the implementation of capacity integration and production regulation [3]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - N - type granular silicon average price rose 2.33% to 44000 yuan/ton, N - type material basis decreased by 31.40% to - 4080 yuan/ton. PS2506 rose 1.99% to 50080 yuan/ton, and some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [3]. Fundamental Data - Weekly silicon wafer production decreased by 3.48% to 11.10 GM, and weekly polysilicon production increased by 0.88% to 2.30 million tons. Monthly polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 10.10 million tons, and silicon wafer production increased by 1.34% to 58.84 GW [3]. Inventory - Polysilicon inventory decreased by 9.78% to 24.90 million tons, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 11.64% to 16.02 GM [3]. Report 4: Industrial Silicon Futures and Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - Driven by the coking coal futures, industrial silicon futures opened higher but then followed the decline of polysilicon and coking coal futures. The industry profit has been repaired, and the arbitrage window is open. However, the fundamental demand is weakening, and attention should be paid to the inventory pressure. If the prices of polysilicon and coking coal futures fall, the price of industrial silicon will also decline, and buying put options can be considered [4]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - The price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon rose 3.09% to 10000 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 955.56% to 475 yuan/ton. Some month - to - month spreads changed, with 2508 - 2509 rising 20.00% to - 20 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - National industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10% to 30.08 million tons, and the national start - up rate decreased by 11.37% to 51.23%. Organic silicon DMC production increased by 13.75% to 20.93 million tons, and polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 10.10 million tons [4]. Inventory - Social inventory decreased by 0.73% to 54.70 million tons, and warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.11% to 25.05 million tons [4]. Report 5: Natural Rubber Futures and Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to continuous rainfall in Southeast Asia and typhoons in Hainan, the supply is disrupted, and rubber prices are rebounding. The overall demand is stable, and the terminal demand increment is limited. Short - term observation is recommended, and attention should be paid to the raw material supply situation after the weather improves in the main producing areas [6]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber remained unchanged at 14950 yuan/ton, and the full - latex basis increased by 50.00% to - 55 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5.66% to - 750 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In May, Thailand's production increased by 157.52% to 272.20 thousand tons, and China's production increased by 67.02% to 97.00 thousand tons. The start - up rate of semi - steel tires increased by 3.07% to 75.99%, and the start - up rate of all - steel tires increased by 0.54% to 65.10% [6]. Inventory - Bonded area inventory increased by 0.63% to 636383 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange factory warehouse futures inventory decreased by 0.82% to 36691 tons [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Cautiously bullish [3] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish, but need to be aware of correction risks [8] Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, with positive macro - factors, improved supply - demand fundamentals, and price increases in downstream products, the industrial silicon price has room for further growth if it is benchmarked against the full cost [3]. - For polysilicon, after the continuous increase in spot prices, they have stabilized. The futures price is above the full cost of most enterprises, and there may be room for growth if considering the recovery of storage, merger, and acquisition funds. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [8]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On July 22, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price hit the daily limit. The main contract 2509 opened at 9345 yuan/ton and closed at 9655 yuan/ton, a change of 5.98% from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2509 was 380961 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50053 lots, a decrease of 88 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon rose. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9600 - 9800 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton), and the price of 421 silicon was 9800 - 10100 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Consumption Side**: Affected by the strong drive of industrial silicon on the cost side and the supply concerns caused by an incident at a Shandong organic silicon factory, the prices of organic silicon products increased across the board. For example, the market price of DMC rose to 11600 - 12500 yuan/ton, an increase of about 1200 yuan/ton [2]. Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: On July 22, 2025, the main contract 2509 of polysilicon futures hit the daily limit, opening at 45880 yuan/ton and closing at 49105 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 8.99% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 192179 lots, and the trading volume on that day was 757482 lots [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 24.90 (a month - on - month change of - 9.78%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.02GW (a month - on - month change of - 5.70%) [6]. Strategy Industrial Silicon - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish - **Other Strategies**: No suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Polysilicon - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish, but need to be aware of correction risks - **Other Strategies**: No suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [8][9] Influencing Factors Industrial Silicon - The resumption of production and new capacity in the Northwest and Southwest regions [5] - Changes in the start - up of polysilicon enterprises [5] - Policy disturbances [5] - Macro and capital sentiment [5] - The start - up situation of organic silicon enterprises [5] Polysilicon - The impact of industry self - regulation on the start - up of upstream and downstream enterprises [9] - The driving effect of futures listing on the spot market [9] - The impact of capital sentiment [9] - Policy disturbances [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Cautiously bullish for unilateral trading, no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] - Polysilicon: Short - term range trading for unilateral trading, no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading. Long - term recommended to buy on dips [7] 2. Core Views - Industrial silicon: The supply - demand pattern has improved recently. With the impact of anti - involution policies, rising prices of coking coal, and potential electricity price hikes in the northwest, the industrial silicon futures market is expected to be bullish [3] - Polysilicon: There are many policy disturbances in the photovoltaic industry. The market is volatile, and it is necessary to pay attention to risk management. Long - term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout on dips [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On July 21, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rose significantly. The main contract 2509 opened at 8,960 yuan/ton and closed at 9,260 yuan/ton, up 440 yuan/ton (4.99%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract was 383,296 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,141 lots, a decrease of 252 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon increased. The price of East China oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton (up 150 yuan/ton), 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,900 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton), Xinjiang oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 8,700 - 9,000 yuan/ton (up 150 yuan/ton), and 99 silicon was 8,700 - 8,900 yuan/ton (up 150 yuan/ton) [1] - In June 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 68,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23% and a year - on - year increase of 12%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative export volume was 340,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. The import volume in June was negligible, and the cumulative import volume from January to June was 5,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 62% [2] - The consumption side: The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 10,700 - 11,000 yuan/ton. Domestic organic silicon monomer enterprises closed their DMC quotes. The price is expected to rise due to enterprise closures and sudden supply - side production cuts. Some monomer production capacities in North China and Zhejiang are expected to resume production, while some in Shandong are temporarily shut down [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On July 21, 2025, the main contract 2509 of polysilicon futures continued to rise, opening at 45,280 yuan/ton and closing at 45,660 yuan/ton, a 3.36% increase from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 172,057 lots (155,539 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 621,314 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 43.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 41.00 - 45.00 yuan/kg [4] - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The polysilicon inventory was 24.90 (a month - on - month decrease of 9.78%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.02GW (a month - on - month decrease of 5.70%). The weekly polysilicon production was 23,000 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 5.00%), and the silicon wafer production was 11.10GW (a month - on - month decrease of 3.37%) [6] - Silicon wafer prices: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.10 yuan/piece (up 0.03 yuan/piece), N - type 210mm was 1.45 yuan/piece (up 0.03 yuan/piece), and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.25 yuan/piece (up 0.03 yuan/piece) [6] - Battery cell prices: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 was about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 was about 0.25 yuan/W, Topcon G12 was 0.27 yuan/W, Topcon210RN was 0.27 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - cell was 0.37 yuan/W [6] - Component prices: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [6] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range trading; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None. Long - term recommended to buy on dips [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On July 21, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly, with the main 2509 contract closing at 9,260 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 4.99%, and the position decreased by 3,956 lots to 383,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot was 9,297 yuan/ton, up 186 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade rose to 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 185 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated higher, with the main 2509 contract closing at 45,850 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 3.36%, and the position increased by 16,518 lots to 172,000 lots. The price of N-type polysilicon refeed material rose to 45,550 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material rose to 45,500 yuan/ton, with the spot discount widening to 385 yuan/ton [2]. - Large industrial silicon manufacturers have not yet resumed production. The increase in the southwest is less than the decrease in the northwest. After the cancellation of the electricity price subsidy in Xinjiang, the cost support strengthening and the resumption of production expectation have entered a game, returning to the range - oscillation mode, with the upper limit being the position where the capacity enters the market after the profit in the southwest is repaired. The photovoltaic industry chain is boosted by the anti - involution policy, but there is no actual improvement in supply and demand. The bulls trade on the confidence that if the spot price does not fall, the futures price will not fall, and the overall support of the disk is relatively strong. After both industrial silicon and polysilicon rose to high levels, large - scale hedging positions entered the market, and there were cases where polysilicon long positions left the market with profits. The margin of polysilicon has been increased, further increasing the difficulty of chasing the rise. Attention should be paid to the PS/SI ratio and the policy implementation rhythm to see if there will be a new wave of upward pull after the callback [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,820 yuan/ton on July 18 to 9,110 yuan/ton on July 21, an increase of 290 yuan/ton. The prices of various grades of industrial silicon spot also generally increased, with the current lowest deliverable price rising from 8,750 yuan/ton to 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened from - 90 yuan/ton to - 185 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 43,850 yuan/ton on July 18 to 45,660 yuan/ton on July 21, an increase of 1,810 yuan/ton. The price of N - type granular silicon material increased by 9,000 yuan/ton, and the price of P - type polysilicon dense material and refeed material also increased by 3,500 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price rose from 43,500 yuan/ton to 45,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened from - 350 yuan/ton to - 385 yuan/ton [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The spot prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, 107 glue, and dimethyl silicone oil all increased, with increases of 800 yuan/ton, 700 yuan/ton, 500 yuan/ton, and 2,500 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 252, the industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 1,400 tons, the polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the polysilicon social inventory decreased by 0.5 tons [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10] 3.2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][15][17] 3.2.3 Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [20][23] 3.2.4 Cost - profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, industrial silicon weekly cost - profit, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [26][28][35] 3.3 Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures Research Institute includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous metal research and new energy industry chain tracking [37][38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The industrial silicon market shows a complex situation with supply increasing, demand remaining weak, and cost support weakening in the flood season. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9115 - 9405 for the 2509 contract [6]. - The polysilicon market has a continuous increase in supply scheduling and a continuous decline in demand from downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 44830 - 46490 for the 2509 contract [8][9][11]. - The main logic for the industrial silicon market is that the supply - demand mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The main risk points include the impact of production suspension/overhaul plans, and the inventory clearance and resumption trends of polysilicon [16][17]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 77,000 tons, a 2.67% increase from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 74,000 tons, a 3.89% decrease from the previous week. The demand remained weak. The inventories of polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy ingots were all at high levels [6]. - **Cost**: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 was 2,789 yuan/ton, and the cost support weakened during the flood season [6]. - **Basis**: On July 21, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 10 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 547,000 tons, a 0.72% decrease from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 173,050 tons, a 0.60% decrease; the main port inventory was 120,000 tons, a 3.22% decrease [6]. - **Market**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased [6]. - **Expectation**: The supply scheduling decreased and remained at a low level, the demand recovery was at a low level, and the cost support increased slightly. The industrial silicon 2509 contract was expected to fluctuate in the range of 9115 - 9405 [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon output was 23,000 tons, a 0.87% increase from the previous week. The scheduled output for July was predicted to be 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 11.1 GW, a 3.47% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 160,200 tons, an 11.63% decrease. Currently, silicon wafer production was in a loss state. The July scheduled output was 52.2 GW, a 11.28% decrease from the previous month. The production of battery cells and components also showed a downward trend [9]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry was 35,370 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 10,630 yuan/ton [10]. - **Basis**: On July 21, the price of N - type polysilicon was 44,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 340 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [13]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 249,000 tons, a 9.78% decrease from the previous week, remaining at a high level compared to the same period in history [13]. - **Market**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [13]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net long, and the long position increased [11]. - **Expectation**: The supply scheduling continued to increase, while the demand from downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components continued to decline. The polysilicon 2509 contract was expected to fluctuate in the range of 44830 - 46490 [11]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - The futures closing prices of various contracts showed an upward trend, with the 08 contract having the largest increase of 6.39%. The spot prices of different types of silicon also showed varying degrees of increase or remained stable [19]. - The weekly social inventory decreased by 0.73% to 547,000 tons, and the inventories of sample enterprises and main ports also decreased [19]. - The weekly production of sample enterprises increased by 4.93% to 30,420 tons, and the production and start - up rates of different regions showed different trends [19]. Polysilicon - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends, with some increasing and some remaining stable. The weekly silicon wafer output increased by 5.74% to 12.9 GW, and the inventory decreased by 22.06% to 265,000 tons [21]. - The weekly inventory of photovoltaic battery外销 factories decreased by 37.72% to 9.94 GW, and the monthly output decreased by 6.74% to 56.19 GW [21]. - The monthly output of components decreased by 10.62% to 46.3 GW, and the domestic and European inventories decreased [21]. 3.3 Trend Analysis of Industrial Silicon - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the basis of industrial silicon and the spread between 421 and 553 silicon, reflecting the price relationship between the spot and futures and different product specifications [23]. - **Inventory**: The historical trends of the inventories of industrial silicon in delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises are presented, showing the changes in inventory levels over time [26]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The historical trends of the production and capacity utilization rates of industrial silicon in different regions and by different specifications are shown, reflecting the changes in production capacity and utilization [31]. - **Component Cost**: The historical trends of the costs of main components such as electricity prices, silica prices, graphite electrode prices, and reducing agent prices in the production of industrial silicon are presented, showing the cost structure and changes [36]. - **Cost - Sample Region**: The historical trends of the costs and profits of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan, and oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang are shown, reflecting the cost - profit situation in different regions [38]. - **Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon are provided, showing the supply, demand, import, export, and balance situations over different time periods [40][43]. 3.4 Downstream Market Analysis of Industrial Silicon Organic Silicon - **DMC Price and Production**: The historical trends of the price, production, capacity utilization, cost, and profit of DMC are presented, showing the production and operation situation of the DMC market [46]. - **Downstream Price**: The historical trends of the prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 are shown, reflecting the price changes in the downstream market [48]. - **Import - Export and Inventory**: The historical trends of the import, export, and inventory of DMC are presented, showing the international trade and inventory situations of the DMC market [50]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Supply Situation**: The historical trends of the prices, supply, and import - export situations of aluminum alloy are presented, including the prices of waste aluminum, aluminum alloy ingots, and the import volume of aluminum scrap [53]. - **Inventory and Production**: The historical trends of the inventories, production, and start - up rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloy ingots are shown, reflecting the production and inventory situations of the aluminum alloy market [56]. - **Demand (Automobile and Wheel Hub)**: The historical trends of the production, sales, and export of automobiles and aluminum alloy wheel hubs are presented, showing the demand situation in the downstream market [58]. Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: The historical trends of the cost, price, inventory, production, start - up rate, and supply - demand balance of polysilicon are presented, showing the overall situation of the polysilicon market [63]. - **Silicon Wafer**: The historical trends of the price, production, inventory, demand, and net export of silicon wafers are shown, reflecting the production and market situation of the silicon wafer market [69]. - **Battery Cell**: The historical trends of the price, production, inventory, start - up rate, and export of battery cells are presented, showing the production and market situation of the battery cell market [72]. - **Photovoltaic Component**: The historical trends of the price, production, inventory, export, and cost - profit of photovoltaic components are shown, reflecting the production and market situation of the photovoltaic component market [75]. - **Photovoltaic Accessory**: The historical trends of the prices, import - export volumes, and production volumes of photovoltaic accessories such as photovoltaic coating, photovoltaic film, photovoltaic glass, high - purity quartz sand, and welding tape are presented, showing the market situation of the photovoltaic accessory market [78]. - **Component Composition Cost - Profit**: The historical trends of the costs and profits of the components of 210mm photovoltaic components, including silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, are shown, reflecting the cost - profit structure of the component market [81]. - **Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation**: The historical trends of the new power generation installed capacity, power generation composition, and new grid - connected capacity of photovoltaic power stations are presented, showing the development situation of the photovoltaic power generation market [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 16, industrial silicon showed a weak oscillation. The main contract 2509 closed at 8,685 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.91% and a decrease in open interest by 16,085 lots to 379,800 lots. The reference price of industrial silicon spot from Baichuan was 9,111 yuan/ton, up 173 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 silicon rose to 8,700 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 30 yuan/ton. Polysilicon showed a strong oscillation. The main contract 2508 closed at 42,945 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.5% and an increase in open interest by 1,962 lots to 71,783 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 44,550 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material rose to 43,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium over the main contract narrowed to 555 yuan/ton [2]. - Market news indicates that Xinjiang may cancel subsidized electricity prices, and large - scale production cuts may not be restarted. As the cost of industrial silicon increases, its price continues to recover. However, there are many differences in the market, the overall transmission is limited, and it is difficult to continue to rise sharply. It is advisable to mainly short at the upper edge of the range. Guided by policies, the confidence of the photovoltaic industry chain to support prices has increased, but the terminal demand has not improved, and the market transactions are almost stagnant. The futures follow the spot price and are more based on the logic of speculative demand trading. In the short term, there are a lot of true and false news in the market, the volatility of the market increases, and the risk of chasing up rises [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 8,765 yuan/ton on July 15 to 8,680 yuan/ton on July 16, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton. The price of most spot varieties increased slightly, such as the price of non - oxygenated 553 silicon in East China rising from 8,900 yuan/ton to 8,950 yuan/ton. The lowest deliverable price remained unchanged at 8,700 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changed from - 60 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 43 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 4,800 tons [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 42,470 yuan/ton on July 15 to 42,945 yuan/ton on July 16, an increase of 475 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various types of polysilicon remained unchanged. The lowest deliverable price remained at 43,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased from 1,030 yuan/ton to 555 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the total social inventory increased by 0.3 million tons [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market increased from 11,000 yuan/ton to 11,200 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 12,000 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton, while the prices of other organic silicon products remained unchanged [4]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged. The inventory of industrial silicon decreased, while the inventory of polysilicon increased [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][11]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][15][17]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [20][23]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [26][28][33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The prices of silicon-based products are showing a firm trend. For industrial silicon, supply may be less than expected while demand from the polysilicon sector may increase, and short - term prices are expected to continue to be strong with potential for greater fluctuations. For polysilicon, the market is driven by supply - side reform expectations and spot price increases, but the upside space may be limited [1]. Summary by Related Content Price Changes - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 0.56% to 8,950 yuan/ton, the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,500 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract closing price decreased by 1.14% to 8,685 yuan/ton [1]. - Polysilicon: N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon prices remained unchanged. The futures main contract closing price increased by 1.12% to 42,945 yuan/ton [1]. Industry News - On July 14, 2025, Yichang Henglong Chemical Co., Ltd.'s project for the reconstruction of water - free dyeing dyes and silicone oil was approved for filing, with planned production capacities of 3000 tons/year of water - free dyeing dyes and 1200 tons/year of silicone oil [1]. - An Anhui - based photovoltaic glass kiln production line with a designed capacity of 750 tons/day entered cold repair, leading to a decrease in supply and an improvement in downstream procurement sentiment [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Industrial silicon supply: Northern large - scale factories have production cuts with no restart news, while the southwest region is about to enter the wet season with lower power costs and gradually increasing enterprise operations, but the restart speed is slow, resulting in a possible supply reduction [1]. - Industrial silicon demand: Polysilicon enterprises are maintaining production cuts with some planned restarts in July, bringing some demand increase; the silicone industry has a strong willingness to cut production to support prices but weak demand, and the demand from silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises is based on needs [1]. - Polysilicon supply: Enterprises are maintaining production cuts, but some may have new capacity put into operation, with an expected slight increase in production in July, approaching 110,000 tons [1]. - Polysilicon demand: The photovoltaic market is weak overall, with increased inventory of silicon wafers and polysilicon. Although the trading atmosphere has improved, the terminal market remains weak due to over - consumption of demand in the first half of the year [1]. Investment Strategies - Industrial silicon: In the short - term, prices are expected to continue to be strong with greater fluctuations, and short - term operations are recommended. In the long - term, there will be selling pressure after the market rebounds [1]. - Polysilicon: The price may continue to be strong in the short - term, but the upside space is limited. Existing long positions can consider taking profits, and continuous attention should be paid to the actual operations of the industrial chain and the implementation of supply - side reforms [1].

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For the industrial silicon market, the short - term supply - demand fundamentals have improved due to production cuts by large northwest manufacturers and lower - than - usual southwest operations. The futures market has rebounded, and the spot price has strengthened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and short positions need to pay attention to stop - loss or use options for protection [1][2]. - For the polysilicon market, the recent spot transactions have seen higher prices after a significant increase in the spot quotation. Policy disturbances in the photovoltaic industry are numerous, and the market fluctuates greatly. Participants need to pay attention to risk management. In the long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [3][6]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On July 15, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rose significantly. The main contract 2509 opened at 8,645 yuan/ton and closed at 8,785 yuan/ton, a change of 240 yuan/ton (2.81%) from the previous settlement. The main contract 2509 had a position of 396,653 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,258 lots, a change of 168 lots from the previous day [1]. - The industrial silicon spot price increased. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,100 - 9,200 yuan/ton (up 150 yuan/ton); 421 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton). The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,700 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton), and 99 silicon was 8,500 - 8,600 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton) [1]. - The overall silicon - coal market remained stable, and the raw material cost for silicon plants had no recent changes. However, if the coking coal spot price rises, the silicon - coal price is expected to follow [1]. - The organic silicon DMC was quoted at 10,600 - 11,000 yuan/ton. Affected by the continuous rise of the industrial silicon market, the cost of DMC increased, leading to a slight price increase [1]. Polysilicon - On July 15, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2508 continued to rise, opening at 41,500 yuan/ton and closing at 42,470 yuan/ton, a 2.78% change from the previous trading day. The main contract's position was 69,821 lots (78,328 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 565,746 lots [3]. - The polysilicon spot price remained stable. The re -投料 was quoted at 32.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg; dense material was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg; cauliflower material was 28.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg; granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 42.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 41.00 - 45.00 yuan/kg (down 0.50 yuan/kg) [3]. - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased slightly, with a 1.40% change, while silicon wafer inventory decreased by 5.70% to 18.13GW. The weekly polysilicon production was 22,800.00 tons, a - 5.00% change, and the silicon wafer production was 11.50GW, a - 3.37% change [3][4]. Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - Silicon wafers: The domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafer was 1.00 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.35 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafer was 1.15 yuan/piece [4]. - Battery cells: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 was about 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 was about 0.24 yuan/W; Topcon G12 was 0.26 yuan/W; Topcon210RN was 0.25 yuan/W; HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [4]. - Components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W [4]. - The market views and price - adjustment trends of the Top5 component manufacturers were divided. Some leading component companies had raised the distributed guidance price from 0.65 yuan/W to a maximum of 0.7 yuan/W, with an expected increase for centralized projects. Some leading companies were waiting and watching [5]. Strategy Industrial Silicon - Short - term: Wait and see; short positions need to pay attention to stop - loss or use options for protection - Cross - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Futures - spot: None - Options: None [2] Polysilicon - Short - term: Pay attention to risks - Cross - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Futures - spot: None - Options: None - Long - term: Suitable to buy on dips [6]

Core Insights - Industrial silicon continues to rise, with polysilicon also following suit, indicating a potential upward trend in the market [1] - Xinjiang may cancel subsidized electricity prices, which could impact production costs and market dynamics [1] - Major manufacturers are not resuming production, raising questions about how long cost-driven increases can be sustained [1] Industry Summary - The price of industrial silicon is experiencing a significant increase, which is positively affecting the polysilicon market [1] - The potential cancellation of electricity subsidies in Xinjiang could lead to higher operational costs for producers, influencing pricing strategies [1] - The lack of production resumption from large manufacturers suggests a tight supply situation, which may prolong the current price increases [1]