德商银行：美国信用评级下调增加美国国债曲线趋陡风险 金十数据5月19日讯，德国商业银行研究部说，穆迪评级将美国国债评级从Aaa下调至Aa1的决定增加了 美国国债曲线趋陡的风险。虽然穆迪正在追赶其他评级机构，但此次降级提醒人们，财政挑战正在加 剧。这"可能会在本周20年期国债拍卖前加剧美国国债的趋陡倾向"。不过，在其他评级机构此前下调美 国国债评级后，投资者都是在美国国债走软时买入的，这一次很可能也是类似的情况。 ...

点击蓝字，关注我们 若30年期国债收益率上升10个基点，将使其突破5%，达到2023年11月以来的最高水平，更接近当年 的峰值——当时的利率水平为2007年中期以来未见。 尽管收益率上升通常会提振货币， 但债务担忧可能加剧市场对美元的怀疑。 彭博美元指数已接近4月 低点， 期权交易员的情绪也处于五年来最悲观状态 。 今年4月，特朗普的关税承诺迫使投资者重新评估美国资产在其投资组合中的核心地位，美国市场全 面承压。在美国总统暂停对中国加征关税后，部分抛售行情出现逆转，但债券市场投资者的注意力很 快转向美国财政轨迹。 信心流失 投资者本周交易伊始再次面临动荡，美国资产承受新压力，不过此次引发波动的主要因素是对美国债 务的担忧，而非关税问题。 智通财经APP获悉，投资者本周交易伊始再次面临动荡，美国资产承受新压力，不过此次引发波动的 主要因素是对美国债务的担忧，而非关税问题。 上周五晚间， 穆迪评级宣布将美国政府信用评级从最高的Aaa下调至Aa1。 这家评级机构将其原因归 咎于历任总统和国会议员导致的预算赤字不断膨胀，称赤字几乎未有收窄迹象。消息传出后，亚洲早 盘交易中， 美国股市和债券期货随美元一起下跌。 随着国 ...

Group 1 - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, marking the first time the U.S. has lost its AAA rating from all three major rating agencies [1][2] - The downgrade is attributed to the surging debt burden and unsustainable fiscal deficit, with predictions that the U.S. fiscal deficit could reach 9% of GDP by 2035 [1][2] - The timing of Moody's downgrade coincides with ongoing political challenges in the U.S., particularly regarding tax reform efforts that have stalled due to internal disagreements within the Republican Party [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is modifying its monetary policy framework, shifting focus from an average inflation target to a current inflation target, indicating a potential for more flexible monetary policy in the future [3][4] - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has declined, with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropping to 50.8, reflecting concerns over inflation and economic outlook [3][4] - The market's response to the downgrade and economic indicators suggests limited short-term impact, but long-term implications could be detrimental if fiscal deficits remain unaddressed [2][4] Group 3 - Trump's trade policies, particularly the tariff strategy, have been characterized as chaotic and lacking a coherent strategy, leading to market volatility and uncertainty [5][6] - The approach taken by Trump is described as "transactional," prioritizing outcomes over processes, which could undermine the U.S.'s long-term credibility and global trade order [6][7] - The upcoming economic data releases, including the European Central Bank's meeting minutes and China's retail figures, are anticipated to provide further insights into global economic conditions [7]

Core Viewpoint - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. government's credit rating from "Aaa" to "Aa1," marking a significant shift in the perception of U.S. Treasury securities as a safe asset [1][3][4]. Group 1: Rating Downgrade Details - Moody's decision to downgrade the U.S. credit rating was unexpected, occurring before the resolution of ongoing negotiations in Congress regarding major fiscal legislation [3]. - The downgrade reflects concerns over the increasing U.S. government debt and rising interest expenses, with projections indicating a potential increase in government debt by $5 trillion over the next decade due to proposed tax cuts [3][4]. - Following the downgrade announcement, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds briefly rose to 4.49%, an increase of approximately 0.05% from before the announcement [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Despite the downgrade, major financial institutions, including Barclays, believe that there will not be a forced sell-off of U.S. Treasuries, as they continue to be viewed as "risk-free" assets [4]. - Japanese financial institutions have expressed that the impact of the downgrade is limited, with no plans to reduce their holdings of U.S. Treasuries [4]. - There is a noted trend of foreign investors, including China, reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasuries, with China's holdings dropping to $765.3 billion, a decrease of $18.9 billion from the previous month [5][6]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The downgrade comes at a time when U.S. interest rates are already under upward pressure, influenced by various economic factors including the potential for a stronger fiscal policy under the Trump administration [5]. - The sentiment among investors remains cautious, with ongoing concerns about the U.S. government's ability to manage its debt effectively, which could hinder the return of capital to the U.S. [6].

投资者本周交易伊始再次面临动荡，美国资产承受新压力，不过此次引发波动的主要因素是对美国债务 的担忧，而非关税问题。 上周五晚间，穆迪评级宣布将美国政府信用评级从最高的Aaa下调至Aa1。这家评级机构将其原因归咎 于历任总统和国会议员导致的预算赤字不断膨胀，称赤字几乎未有收窄迹象。消息传出后，亚洲早盘交 易中，美国股市和债券期货随美元一起下跌。 随着国会就是否推出更多无资金支持的减税政策展开辩论，且在美国总统唐纳德.特朗普颠覆长期商业 伙伴关系、重新谈判贸易协议的背景下，美国经济看似即将放缓，此次评级下调可能加剧华尔街对美主 权债券市场日益增长的担忧。 上周五，10年期美国国债收益率在成交量清淡的情况下一度升至4.49%。 富兰克林邓普顿投资解决方案副首席投资官马克斯.戈克曼表示："在无节制的无资金财政扩张只会加速 的情况下，美债评级下调并不令人意外。随着包括主权基金和机构投资者在内的大型投资者开始逐步将 国债置换为其他避险资产，债务偿还成本将继续攀升。不幸的是，这可能导致美国收益率陷入危险 的'熊陡'螺旋，进一步给美元带来下行压力，并降低美股吸引力。" 富国银行策略师迈克尔.舒马赫和安杰洛.马诺拉托斯在给客户 ...

本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 首先来看一条新闻：穆迪这家美国评级公司对美国政府的主权信用评级进行了下调。虽然评级仍然处于 优等水平，但已经告别了最高级别的3A等级。这背后反映出的是对美国资产价值的深深疑虑：是否应 该给美国资产一个较高的评分？这一评级下调会间接导致许多资金在配置美元资产时面临加仓还是减仓 的抉择。评级下降肯定是一个负面的考虑因素。而这一评级下调的导火索，正是大家对美国债务问题的 担忧。 这个问题由来已久，这颗深水炸弹一直没有引爆，但其规模还在不断扩大，这种隐忧也会引发一系列连 锁反应。要知道，这件事情已经呼应了前几周大家看到的奇怪现象：美元资产出现"三杀"，即股、债同 时下跌。背后的原因正是美元债务问题迟迟得不到解决。 这件事情不仅外界清楚，美国决策层也深感忧虑。大家看到特朗普上台后，一个重要政策目标就是解决 或控制债务问题，以缓解美国"花钱比赚得多、入不敷出"的状况。比如，前段时间大幅调整关税，目的 之一就是增加收入，当然也有其他目的。另外，这两天大家还看到美国政府可能正在酝酿加征一种名 为"国际汇款税"的新税种。比如，许多在美国打工的人往自己国家汇钱，政府打算从中抽取5%作为汇 ...

惠誉评级上调了阿根廷的信用评级，理由是该国正在逐步取消货币管制，并成功获得多边融资。据5月 12日发布的一份声明，惠誉将阿根廷的信用评级上调一级至CCC+，相当于垃圾级中的第七个等级，与 厄瓜多尔和斯里兰卡的评级持平。惠誉不会对CCC+及以下的主权国家的评级展望进行评估。 ...

Core Insights - Moody's warns that the influx of retail investors into private credit assets poses increasing risks to the U.S. economy [1] - Since the pandemic, the share of credit markets has shifted from public banks to private credit firms, with assets under management exceeding $2 trillion since 2014 [1] - The trend of retail investment in private credit continues despite market volatility, driven by the rise of open-ended perpetual funds [1] Group 1 - Retail investors are gaining exposure to the expanding private credit sector, primarily due to the emergence of open-ended perpetual funds that have fewer restrictions compared to traditional closed-end funds [1] - The popularity of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) focused on private credit is increasing, which may redefine access to private markets, provided that appropriate safeguards are in place [1] Group 2 - Moody's highlights that ETFs and perpetual funds offer greater flexibility in terms of investment acceptance and redemption compared to closed-end funds [2] - However, this flexibility introduces risks similar to bank runs, as mismatches between liquidity terms and investor expectations could undermine trust in fund sponsors [2] - The credit agreements in perpetual funds are less restrictive compared to closed-end funds, which raises concerns about liquidity management and transparency, essential for long-term success [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Renmin University of China's Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies warns of a significant risk of collapse in the U.S. economy and its debt system, predicting that 2025 may mark the year of a U.S. debt crisis, likening it to a Ponzi scheme nearing bankruptcy [1][4]. Economic and Financial Analysis - The U.S. national debt has reached $36.2 trillion, accounting for 123% of GDP, significantly exceeding the internationally recognized warning line of 60% [4]. - The report highlights that the U.S. government is increasingly reliant on "borrowing to pay off old debts," with approximately $9.3 trillion of public debt maturing in the 2025 fiscal year, representing one-third of total debt [4]. - Interest payments on U.S. debt are projected to reach $882 billion in the 2024 fiscal year, a 33.7% increase year-over-year, surpassing military spending for the first time [4]. - Cumulative interest payments over the next decade could total $13.8 trillion, nearly double the inflation-adjusted total from the past 20 years [4]. Policy Implications - The report criticizes the policies of the Trump administration, particularly the "reciprocal tariffs" and extreme fiscal tightening, which have led to a significant rise in inflation expectations and a drop in consumer confidence [3]. - It suggests that the combination of high tariffs and tax cuts will exacerbate social inequality and push inflation closer to 5%, further destabilizing the economy [4][5]. - The report warns that the U.S. government's loss of credibility under the current administration could lead to a market collapse similar to that of 2008 [3][4]. Global Economic Impact - The report indicates that the U.S. is increasingly viewed as a global adversary due to its aggressive tariff policies, which could lead to a contraction in global trade [5]. - It predicts that the collapse of U.S. debt will not signify the end of the international financial system but rather the beginning of a long process of restructuring the global credit system, with a shift towards a multipolar currency system [5]. Recommendations for China - The report advises China to strengthen its financial defenses against the risks posed by U.S. debt, including establishing a monitoring and early warning system for U.S. debt defaults [6]. - It emphasizes the need for China to enhance its economic resilience, improve domestic consumption, and promote the internationalization of the Renminbi [6].

穆迪评级机构周二晚将泰国信用评级展望从"稳定"下调至"负面"，主要基于对泰国经济和财政状况进一 步恶化的担忧。穆迪特别提到，美国关税政策带来的不确定性对依赖出口的泰国经济构成重大挑战。 尽管面临多重经济压力，穆迪确认了泰国Baa1主权信用评级，认可其稳健的制度和治理结构，以及有 效的货币政策，这体现在泰国长期以来保持较低且稳定的物价水平，并有效控制通胀预期。 本月中旬，泰国央行助理行长Sakkapop Panyanukul表示，泰国应为外国投资放缓做好准备，因全球贸易 不确定性增加可能带来长期冲击。 鉴于美国计划提高关税，泰国央行已将美国经济增长放缓及全球出口萎缩纳入考量，并下调了GDP增长 预期。泰国央行称，若美国加征关税，泰国今年的经济增长率可能仅为1.3%。 泰国央行指出，经济下行的风险还源于游客减少。相较之下，这与泰国国家旅游局局长此前的讲话存在 较大分歧。 新华财经北京4月30日电（崔凯）泰国央行决定将关键利率降至1.75%，这是自2024年10月以来的第三 次降息。此次降息使利率降至两年来的最低点，符合多数经济学家的预期。 4月27日，泰国国家旅游局局长塔帕妮表示，尽管中国等市场的外国游客数量出现 ...