Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing slight pressure due to a delay in high tariffs on the EU announced by President Trump, which has reduced market concerns over global trade conflicts and subsequently weakened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of May 26, gold prices reported at $3347.54 per ounce, with a decline of 0.28%, reaching a high of $3356.32 and a low of $3331.05 during the session [1] - The overall trend for gold last week was a volatile upward movement, with a weekly low of $3204 and a high of $3365, closing the week at $3359 [2] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The delay in tariff implementation has temporarily pressured gold prices, but concerns over global inflation and the U.S. fiscal outlook continue to support gold's value [2] - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. long-term credit rating from "AAA" to "AA1" has increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset, putting additional pressure on the dollar [2] - Analysts predict that gold prices will continue to rise, influenced by the U.S. rating downgrade, ongoing gold purchases by major Asian countries, and trade-related anxieties [2]

Currency Exchange Rates - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index fell to 96.2, down 0.5% week-on-week; the BIS RMB exchange rate index dropped to 101.79, down 0.57%, marking a new low since September 2023; the SDR RMB exchange rate index decreased to 91, down 0.42% [1] - The onshore RMB against the USD closed at 7.1895, up 142 basis points for the week, reaching a new high since November 8 of the previous year; the offshore RMB against the USD rose by 376 basis points, closing at 7.1722 [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. 20-year Treasury bond auction results were poor, with a bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 2.46, the lowest since February of this year; the yield reached 5.047%, marking the second time it exceeded 5% [3] - The Eurozone's composite PMI fell to 49.5, indicating economic contraction, with the services PMI dropping to 48.9, the lowest since January 2024 [4] Foreign Investment and Trade - In April 2025, foreign capital net purchases of domestic bonds reached $10.9 billion, indicating a high level of foreign investment; foreign investment in domestic stocks turned into net buying in late April [2] - China's trade with Central and Eastern European countries reached 329.68 billion yuan in the first four months of this year, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, setting a historical high for the same period [6] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China announced a simultaneous decrease in loan and deposit rates, with the one-year and five-year LPR down by 10 basis points to 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively [7] - The PBOC will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, resulting in a net injection of 375 billion yuan for the third consecutive month [7]

本周，美元呈现下跌态势，主要是因资金逃离美元资产。资金出现这种流向，主要源于评级公司调降了 美国主权信用评级、特朗普减税法案对美国赤字前景的负面影响，以及关税后续谈判进展不顺利等因 素。 基于同样的原因，美国国债市场本周也遭遇大幅下跌。就当前情况来看，资金外流的最主要去向是欧 盟、英国及日本。 在本周，美国公布的经济指标数量并不多。周四公布的数据显示，尽管当前经济存在较高的不确定性， 但5月劳动力市场依然保持着稳健的增长态势。至5月17日当周初请失业金人数为22.7万人，优于市场预 期的23万人。这一数据在一定程度上反映了美国劳动力市场的韧性，但未能改变美元因资金外流等因素 导致的下跌趋势。 每日经济新闻 在经历连续四周的上涨之后，本周美元走势急剧转弱。美元指数在一周内累计大幅下跌1.84%，降至 99.10点。深入分析本周美元下跌的原因，主要有以下三个方面： 评级下调引发投资者信心动摇：5月16日，评级公司穆迪将美国主权信用评级从"Aaa"下调至"Aa1"。这 一举措使得投资者原本就存在的对美元资产的回避心理进一步加剧。穆迪作出这一评级调整，主要是出 于对美国超高财政赤字及沉重债务负担的担忧。这一评级下调事 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the US dollar index are primarily driven by the re-evaluation of US fiscal and credit risks, following Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign rating and concerns over long-term fiscal sustainability [1] Market Analysis - The US dollar index has experienced a decline due to a downgrade in the US sovereign rating by Moody's, with all three major rating agencies rating US debt below AAA [1] - The 30-year US Treasury yield has surpassed 5.1%, while short-term rates remain stable, indicating rising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability [1] - The derivatives market is seeing a record high of bearish sentiment towards US assets [1] Trade and Capital Flows - In April, the foreign exchange settlement deficit slightly widened, with increased activity in corporate foreign exchange transactions [1] - The merchandise trade surplus has narrowed, with a net inflow of $64.9 billion in cross-border capital, indicating resilient exports but facing uncertainties [1] - Foreign investment in Chinese bonds is improving, as evidenced by a rebound in the custody volume of RMB bonds [1] Economic Indicators - Retail sales and industrial value-added output in April showed year-on-year growth, while the May LPR cut signals support for the RMB [1] - The preliminary May PMI in the US exceeded expectations, but the downgrade by Moody's has weakened confidence in the dollar [1] Currency Outlook - The dollar is expected to maintain a weak position against the RMB in the short term, with potential short-selling opportunities following a period of range-bound trading [1] - The euro may be in a favorable position due to the attractiveness of euro-denominated assets amid US tariff policies [1] - The Japanese yen has shown resilience despite weak fundamentals, influenced by the downgrade of the dollar rating [1] Strategic Considerations - The focus is on the potential for a widening interest rate differential between the US and China due to fiscal risks and policy uncertainties [1] - Attention is also directed towards the progress of US-EU tariff negotiations, which could impact the euro's position [1]

Group 1 - Recent significant pullback in credit risk assets such as long-term US and Japanese government bonds, leading to a rise in decentralized safe-haven asset gold [1][2] - Moody's downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, exacerbating the situation for dollar assets and contributing to a surge in gold prices, which exceeded $3300 per ounce by May 21 [1][5] - The US dollar index fell below 100, reaching 99.6, highlighting the challenges faced by fiat currencies in the current economic climate [1][2] Group 2 - Concerns over the sustainability of US and Japanese debt have led to persistently high yields on government bonds, with US 20-year and 30-year bond yields surpassing 5% as of May 21 [2][3] - Japan's long-term bond yields have also risen significantly, with 20-year, 30-year, and 40-year yields increasing by 39.7 basis points, 72 basis points, and 101.2 basis points respectively since the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" [2][3] Group 3 - The recent downturn in US and Japanese bond markets is linked to weak auction results, with Japan's 20-year bond auction yielding the worst results since 2012, and the US 20-year bond auction also showing weak demand [4] - Strong demand for gold is evident, with global physical gold ETF inflows reaching approximately $11 billion in April, driven largely by significant inflows from Asia [4][5] Group 4 - Following Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, there has been a notable increase in gold holdings, with COMEX gold inventory rising by 30,648.47 troy ounces and SPDR gold ETF holdings increasing by 36,869.5 troy ounces [5] - China's gold imports reached a new high of 127.5 metric tons in April, reflecting a 73% month-on-month increase, driven by both central bank purchases and increased retail demand [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury's recent auction of $16 billion in 20-year bonds faced weak demand, leading to a rise in 30-year Treasury yields to an 18-month high, hovering above 5% [1] - RSM's chief economist Joseph Brusuelas noted a shift in investor perception regarding the safe-haven value of long-term U.S. Treasuries, driven by increasing risks related to government spending, taxation, trade, inflation, and growth [1] - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating has raised concerns, with projections indicating that U.S. debt could reach 134% of GDP by 2035, highlighting the unsustainable nature of the current deficit levels compared to other developed nations [1] Group 2 - The Responsible Federal Budget Committee estimates that the recent tax cut plan could increase the deficit by $3.1 trillion over the next decade, equivalent to 10% of this year's GDP [2] - Analysts have expressed concerns about the implications of high deficits during a period of low unemployment, likening current borrowing levels to wartime financing [2] - There are warnings that unless the stock market experiences another significant downturn, the administration may not reconsider its tax cut strategy, potentially leading to a severe sell-off in long-term bonds that could impact risk assets [2]

由于美国政府债务风险持续上升，穆迪评级公司（Moody's Ratings）于上周五宣布，将美国的主权信用 评级从最高等级Aaa下调至Aa1，并将评级展望从"负面"调整为"稳定"。值得注意的是，此前惠誉评级 （Fitch Ratings）已于2023年，标普全球评级（S&P Global Ratings）早在2011年便已将美国评级下调至 非最高等级。至此，美国已全面失去了全球三大评级机构的最高评级。 穆迪为何下调美国评级？ 穆迪指出，美国历届政府和国会未能就遏制巨额财政赤字达成有效共识。目前正在讨论的财政方案，也未 显示出在未来数年内能实质性削减强制性支出和赤字的可能性。穆迪预计，未来十年，美国赤字将持续扩 大，主要原因在于福利支出上升，而政府收入增长趋于平缓。 报告还指出，若税收和支出结构未作出调整，美国政府的财政灵活性将进一步受限。穆迪预测，到2035 年，包括利息支出在内的强制性支出将占联邦政府总支出的78%，高于2024年的73%。若2017年《减税 与就业法案》全面延续，未来十年将额外增加约4万亿美元的结构性赤字（不含利息），这是穆迪的基准 情境预期。 据其模型估算，美国联邦财政赤字预计将从202 ...

Group 1 - Global uncertainty has risen since May 16, leading to increased risk aversion and a rebound in gold prices due to concerns over tariffs, U.S. credit rating downgrades, and geopolitical tensions [1] - On May 16, President Trump indicated potential unilateral tariff increases on trade partners, raising market concerns about trade uncertainties [1] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 on May 16, citing large fiscal deficits and increasing government debt burdens, which contributed to a decline in the U.S. dollar index [1] - Reports of potential Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have heightened geopolitical tensions, causing gold prices to surge past $3,300 per ounce and oil prices to rise by 3.5% [1] Group 2 - The trend of "de-dollarization" globally suggests that gold may become a new pricing anchor, as the dollar's credit system faces challenges from currency overproduction and fiscal deficits [2] - The demand for gold as a safe asset is increasing due to frequent global geopolitical turmoil, prompting diversification of asset reserves [2] - The gold ETF (code: 518800) tracks the spot price of high-purity gold (99.99%) and is suitable for investors seeking asset preservation and inflation hedging [2]

Geopolitical Tensions - The geopolitical situation is tense in multiple regions, particularly in the Middle East where negotiations between Israel and Hamas have stalled, and there are reports of Israel potentially preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities [2] - In Europe, the EU has approved the 17th round of sanctions against Russia, and the UK has introduced over 100 new sanctions, including the suspension of free trade agreement negotiations with Israel [2] - The complex geopolitical landscape has significantly increased market uncertainty, providing strong support for gold prices [2] Economic Outlook - High uncertainty is causing households and businesses to pause spending and investment, which may lead to a significant slowdown in economic growth [2] - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction, with expectations of at least two rate cuts by the end of 2025, each by 25 basis points [2] Credit Rating Impact - The downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody's from Aaa to Aa1 has led to a significant drop in U.S. stock markets, with the 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 4.5% and the 30-year yield exceeding 5% [3] - These economic instabilities are prompting investors to seek channels for asset preservation and appreciation, highlighting the safe-haven function of gold [3] Trading Strategies - For spot gold, a buy position is recommended if it stabilizes at 3245.00, with a target of 3275.00 [4] - For spot silver, a sell position is suggested if it stabilizes at 32.700, with a target of 32.900 [6]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate has fallen below the psychological level of 144.00, reaching a two-week low, driven by expectations of a shift in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy despite weak trade data [1][3] - Japan's core CPI has risen for 27 consecutive months, with service price increases at their highest since 1993, raising concerns about persistent inflation and prompting speculation about a potential interest rate hike in 2025 [3] - The USD is under pressure due to two main factors: the market fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September and Fitch's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating to AA+, leading to a reassessment of the attractiveness of USD assets [3] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates that the USD/JPY has broken key support levels, with the next target being the 143.65-143.60 area, which is a significant Fibonacci retracement level [3] - Short-term resistance levels are identified at 144.55 and 145.00, with any technical rebounds likely viewed as short-selling opportunities unless the price can reclaim 145.40 [4] - The market sentiment has shifted from merely trading interest rate differentials to speculating on policy expectation differences, indicating potential volatility due to discrepancies between actual policy adjustments by the Bank of Japan and market expectations [5]