Core Insights - The article reports on a survey conducted by Mysteel involving 35 domestic primary lead smelting enterprises, covering a total capacity of 4.567 million tons, which represents a coverage rate of 92.56% [1] - It forecasts that the domestic primary lead production will reach 272,800 tons in October 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 950 tons or 3.61%, and a year-on-year growth of 6.48% [1] - The expected production for November 2025 is projected to rise to 284,700 tons [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply of electrolytic lead and recycled lead is expected to increase in November, with electrolytic lead supply rising to 33.47 tons and recycled refined lead supply increasing to 28.58 tons. However, the import window for lead ingots is closed, and battery consumption remains resilient. As a result, social inventory is expected to rise slightly, and the lead price is likely to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern in November [2][70] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Lead Market Review - In October, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated strongly, reaching a mid - month high of 17,660 yuan/ton and finally closing at 17,390 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 2.66%. London lead continued to oscillate widely, closing at 2,025 US dollars/ton at the end of October, with a monthly increase of 1.96% [7] II. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: From January to August 2025, the global lead concentrate output was 295.6 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.29%. It is predicted that global lead mine supply will grow by 0.7% to 457 tons in 2025 and 2.2% to 467 tons in 2026. In China, the lead concentrate output from January to September was 124.91 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.54%. With the cold weather, the monthly output is expected to decline month - on - month but remain positive year - on - year [10][11] - **Lead concentrate processing fees remain low, and silver concentrate imports decline month - on - month**: In November, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 350 yuan/metal ton, down 50 yuan/metal ton month - on - month. The average import processing fee decreased as well. In September, lead concentrate imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Silver concentrate imports in September decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and future imports are expected to be under pressure [17][18] 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is slow**: From January to August 2025, global refined lead output was 881.3 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.31%. It is predicted that global refined lead output will increase by 2% to 1,334 tons in 2025 and 0.98% to 1,347.2 tons in 2026 [22] - **Refineries are in a state of reduction and resumption, and the monthly supply of electrolytic lead continues to rise**: In October, electrolytic lead output was 32.6 tons. In November, with the resumption of production in multiple regions, the output is expected to increase to 33.47 tons [27] - **The price of waste batteries is stable with a slight increase, and the supply of recycled lead increases marginally**: In October, the average price of waste batteries increased slightly. The output of recycled refined lead in October was 27.29 tons. In November, with the resumption of production of refineries and the output of new capacities, the output is expected to increase to 28.58 tons [33][34] 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: From January to August 2025, global refined lead consumption was 875.6 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.2%. It is predicted that global refined lead demand will grow by 1.8% to 1,325 tons in 2025 and 0.9% to 1,337 tons in 2026. The overseas lead - acid battery market has some resilience but is difficult to improve significantly [45][46] - **At the end of the month, battery enterprises cut production, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises declined**: In October, the operating rate of battery enterprises first rose and then fell. In November, it is expected to rise slightly but not significantly [48][49] - **The Shanghai - London ratio is favorable for lead product imports, and high overseas tariffs and anti - dumping measures put pressure on battery exports**: In September, lead exports decreased month - on - month, and imports increased. Battery exports decreased. It is expected that lead exports will remain low in October, and imports will increase significantly [50][51] - **Terminal growth is slow, and energy storage performs well**: In the automotive sector, production and sales are growing well. In the electric bicycle sector, the new national standard is expected to increase lead consumption. The energy storage battery market continues to grow [58][60] 2.4 Global Visible Inventory Drops from High Levels - In October, LME inventory first increased and then decreased, and the end - of - year high - inventory pressure is difficult to relieve significantly. Social inventory continued to decline in October and is expected to stop falling and rise in November [64] III. Summary and Future Outlook - The supply of electrolytic lead and recycled lead is expected to increase in November, but the import window for lead ingots is closed. Battery consumption remains resilient. Social inventory is expected to rise slightly, and the lead price is likely to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern in November [70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic smelter production increase and decrease coexist, and the supply shortage has improved. After the consumer end resumes production, it is expected to maintain just - in - time procurement. The terminal peak season is not prosperous. It is expected that the lead price may fluctuate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the support level of 17,000 - 17,100 yuan/ton. In the future, continuous attention should be paid to the impact of raw material arrivals on smelter operations [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The opening of primary lead smelters increased and decreased, with small fluctuations in production. The opening of secondary lead smelters continued to rise due to improved profits and raw material supply. The opening of battery enterprises declined due to limited cost transfer. The import profit window was gradually closing, and downstream procurement was poor, leading to an increase in inventory [4][21][34][53][61][69]. - SMM 1 lead ingot average price decreased by 0.43% to 17,225 yuan/ton, Shanghai lead main contract closing price decreased by 1.17% to 17,390 yuan/ton, and LME lead closing price (electronic disk) increased by 0.42% to 2,025 US dollars/ton [10]. 3.2 Mineral Supply and TC - The tight mineral supply pattern has not been alleviated, and TC is stable with a weakening trend. Domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 350 yuan/metal ton, and imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 125 US dollars/dry ton. Smelter profits declined, and as of October 24, smelter profits (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) were 106 yuan/ton [22][27]. 3.3 Primary Lead - The primary lead operating rate decreased to 67.17% on a month - on - month basis. The total weekly production of major deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises was expected to be 50,050 tons, with some enterprises having maintenance plans and others resuming normal production [28][33]. 3.4 Secondary Lead - The price of waste batteries was firm. As of October 31, the average price of waste batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 25 yuan/ton. The profit of secondary lead smelters declined slightly. As of November 3, the comprehensive profit of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was 160 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale enterprises was - 56 yuan/ton [37][46]. - The raw material inventory of secondary lead decreased, and the finished product inventory increased. As of October 30, the raw material inventory was 134,450 tons, and the finished product inventory was 3,940 tons. It is expected that the finished product inventory will further accumulate [47][49]. - The secondary lead operating rate increased by 1.2 percentage points to 43.4%. As of last Friday, the weekly production of secondary lead was 51,300 tons, with a slight decline. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to rise [50][52]. 3.5 Lead Batteries - The lead battery operating rate decreased by 6.46 percentage points to 68.9%. Due to limited terminal demand and high lead prices, some enterprises reduced production to avoid over - inventory. It is expected that the operating rate will recover this week [58][60]. 3.6 Import and Export - As of October 24, the refined lead export loss was about 3,200 yuan/ton. As of October 31, the import profit was 24.99 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was gradually closing [63][68]. 3.7 Inventory - As of October 30, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 29,800 tons, a decrease; the inventory of major deliverable primary lead brands in factories was 8,600 tons, a month - on - month increase. High lead prices suppressed downstream procurement, leading to inventory accumulation [72][78]. - As of October 31, SHFE refined lead inventory was 36,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease; as of October 30, LME inventory was 220,300 tons, a decrease [79][81]. - The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, consumption, and inventory data of primary and secondary lead from January 2024 to August 2025 [82].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures adjusted from a high level. The macro - positive news has landed, and the market risk appetite has cooled. The steady resumption of production by smelters combined with the centralized production cuts of battery enterprises has weakened the supply - demand support. However, as more smelters resume production, the demand for raw materials increases, strengthening the cost support. Also, the narrowing of the import profit of lead ingots after the decline of the Shanghai - London ratio weakens the import impact, limiting the adjustment space of futures prices. It is expected that the lead price will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [2][8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - From October 24th to October 31st, the SHFE lead price dropped from 17,595 yuan/ton to 17,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 205 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 2,016.5 dollars/ton to 2,025 dollars/ton, an increase of 8.5 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.73 to 8.59, a decrease of 0.14; the SHFE inventory decreased from 36,333 tons to 35,999 tons, a decrease of 334 tons; the LME inventory decreased from 235,375 tons to 220,300 tons, a decrease of 15,075 tons; the social inventory increased from 35,900 tons to 39,400 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons; the spot premium increased from - 215 yuan/ton to - 210 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton [5] Market Review - Last week, the main PB2512 contract price of Shanghai lead futures adjusted from a high level, with a weekly decline of 1.17%, and fluctuated narrowly at night on Friday. The continuous decline of LME inventory supported the upward movement of the LME lead price center of gravity, but the weakening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December and the rebound of the US dollar in the second half of the week suppressed the upward trend of LME lead, with a weekly increase of 0.42%. In the spot market, downstream enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm was average at the end of the month, and the transaction in the scattered order market did not improve significantly [6] Industry News - As of the week ending October 31st, the domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 350 yuan/metal ton, and the imported ore processing fee remained flat at - 125 dollars/dry ton. An East - China large - scale secondary lead smelter started the furnace - drying operation on Monday and planned to start formal production this weekend, which is expected to contribute over 10,000 tons of secondary refined lead output in November. A survey of 30 industry analysts showed that the average spot lead price on LME in 2025 was 1,973 dollars/ton, and it is expected to be 2,050 dollars/ton in 2026. A large - scale lead - acid battery enterprise in Central China planned to cut or stop production from October 28th to November 2nd. A large - scale secondary lead smelter in North China stopped production for maintenance, affecting the refined lead output of 300 - 400 tons per day [9] Related Charts - The content provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, SHFE and LME inventory, lead ingot premium, primary and secondary lead price difference, waste battery price, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead ore processing fee, electrolytic lead and secondary refined lead output, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][11][12][13][14][15][17][18][19][20][21][22][24][25][27][29][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lead is increasing, with the production of primary lead rising and the production of secondary lead expected to increase due to high profits and abundant supply of waste batteries. Meanwhile, consumption is gradually entering the off - season, and the price of lead is expected to be under pressure [3][7]. - The total inventory of lead in five regions has decreased, and the absolute inventory is at a low level in the same period of history. However, the ratio of the position to inventory of the SHFE lead contract 11 is at a low level in the same period of history, indicating that the spot market lacks support for the price [7]. - In unilateral trading, it is expected that the rise of lead prices will be limited. It is recommended to close long positions. If the increase in domestic inventory is realized later, short - position allocation can be tentatively carried out. In terms of spreads, the domestic lead inventory may increase, and the long - domestic and short - overseas arbitrage should continue to be held [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspects - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 17,390 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.17%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,355 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.20%. The LME lead 3 - month contract closed at 1,970.5 last week, with a decline of 2.28%. The LME lead basis improved by 10.16, the bonded area lead premium decreased by 17.5, and the Shanghai 1 lead spot premium increased by 15. The spread between secondary lead and primary lead remained unchanged at - 75. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract decreased by 120 [8]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1,403 tons to 21,645 tons, the SHFE total inventory decreased by 334 tons to 35,999 tons, the social inventory decreased by 2,100 tons to 29,800 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 15,075 tons to 220,300 tons, with the cancellation ratio decreasing by 5.07% to 62.44% [8]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract decreased by 31,195 lots to 48,319 lots, and the open interest decreased by 15,662 lots to 68,184 lots. The trading volume of the LME lead 3 - month contract increased by 381 lots to 5,372 lots, and the open interest increased by 6,194 lots to 142,000 lots [8]. 3.2 Lead Supply - **Lead Concentrate**: The processing fee of lead concentrate has been weak. The production, import volume, actual consumption, and operating rate of lead concentrate in China are presented in the report, along with the inventory in Lianyungang. The profit of imported and domestic lead concentrates is also shown [5][26][27]. - **Primary and Secondary Lead**: The production of primary lead is increasing, and the production of secondary lead is expected to increase due to high profits. The production and operating rates of primary lead, secondary lead, and the combined production of primary and secondary lead are provided. The by - products of primary lead, such as silver and sulfuric acid, are also mentioned [7][31][32]. - **Waste Batteries and Secondary Lead**: The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost and profit of secondary lead are presented. The net import, import volume, export volume, and import profit and loss of refined lead are also included [38][40][41][42]. 3.3 Lead Demand - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises is declining, and the monthly finished - product inventory days of battery enterprises and dealers are presented. The export volume of batteries is also shown [46]. - **End - Use Consumption**: The actual consumption of lead, the monthly production of automobiles and motorcycles are provided to reflect the end - use demand for lead [48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Although some primary lead smelters plan to boost annual production and sales, there are many maintenance activities from October to November, so primary lead production is expected to increase slightly. For recycled lead, smelters affected by Document 770 are gradually resuming production, but raw material inventory levels are low, and waste transportation is affected by environmental protection requirements in the north, so the increase in recycled lead production is limited, and lead ingot spot will remain tight in the short term. It is recommended to short at high prices. After the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has significantly rebounded, and the traditional consumption season, along with the replacement market of cars and electric bicycles, supports lead demand. Some leading battery companies have good orders and are expanding energy - storage business, which will further increase lead demand. However, since September, the Shanghai - London ratio of lead ingots has gradually widened, and the export of Chinese lead - acid batteries is under pressure due to tariffs, which will suppress demand growth to some extent. Inventory has been decreasing, but with the expected increase in imported lead arrivals and the possible increase in recycled lead production, inventory may change next week. If the inventory depletion rate slows, it will resist price increases. It is recommended to short at high prices [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,350 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,019 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars. The spread between the December - January contracts of Shanghai lead is - 5 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai lead is 119,775 lots, down 2,688 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 496 lots, up 1,470 lots. Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 21,645 tons, down 1,352 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 36,333 tons, down 5,368 tons; the LME lead inventory is 224,875 tons, down 4,800 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 17,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,290 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the lead main contract is - 150 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 35.12 dollars/ton, up 0.42 dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,671 yuan, up 275 yuan. The price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 17,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 82.65%, up 1.01 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.96 tons, up 0.05 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 90 dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The global lead ore production is 383.3 kilotons, up 3.4 kilotons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 15.06 tons, up 1.58 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume is 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons. The average price of waste batteries in the market is 9,967.86 yuan/ton, down 23.21 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 45,696 units, down 3,984 units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) is 19,450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly automobile production is 322.7 tons, up 47.46 tons; the monthly new - energy vehicle production is 158 tons, up 24.7 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - On October 30, a large recycled lead smelter in East China started the furnace - drying operation on Monday and plans to start formal production this weekend. According to SMM analysis, after resuming production, it is expected to contribute over 10,000 tons to the recycled refined lead production in November, which will have a positive impact on market supply. The Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the lead price surges, the profits of smelters, especially secondary lead enterprises, have been significantly restored, and the supply shortage problem may be improved. Meanwhile, the high lead price suppresses the downstream purchasing enthusiasm, so the risk of the lead price rising and then falling is relatively large. Attention should be paid to the support level of 17,000 - 17,100 yuan/ton [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price increased by 2.37% month - on - month to 17,300 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract increased by 3.05% to 17,595 yuan/ton; the LME lead closing price (electronic disk) rose by 2.28% to 2,016.5 US dollars/ton [13]. - The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat month - on - month at 350 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee decreased month - on - month to - 125 US dollars/dry ton. The expectation of tight ore supply remained unchanged, and the TC quotation was stable with a weakening trend. The smelter's profit rebounded, and as of October 17, the smelter's profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was - 133.7 yuan/ton [31]. 2. Primary Lead - The primary lead operating rate increased month - on - month to 67.57%. The production of some refineries that resumed production was lower than expected, resulting in a phased supply shortage [2][32]. - The weekly production and maintenance arrangements of deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises showed that the total weekly production was expected to be 50,300 tons. Some enterprises in Inner Mongolia had local maintenance, and some enterprises' production fluctuations recovered [37]. 3. Secondary Lead - As of October 24, the average price of waste batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month. The demand for waste batteries increased, but the stock in the hands of holders was limited, and they were reluctant to sell, so the price was prone to rise and difficult to fall [45]. - As of October 24, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was 260 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was 45 yuan/ton. The lead price strengthened, and the waste battery price did not follow the increase for the time being, so the smelter's profit increased significantly [51]. - As of October 23, the raw material inventory of secondary lead was 134,700 tons, and the finished product inventory was 3,920 tons. The refinery's operating rate increased, and the raw material inventory decreased. Due to the improvement of downstream purchasing enthusiasm and the tight supply of primary lead, the accumulation of secondary lead finished product inventory was not obvious, but it might gradually increase in the future [54]. - The operating rate of secondary lead enterprises increased by 7.1 percentage points month - on - month to 42.2%. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 52,000 tons, showing an upward trend. The production increase of some refineries in Anhui and the resumption of production of a large - scale refinery in Inner Mongolia drove the overall increase in the operating rate of secondary lead [57]. 4. Lead Batteries - The operating rate of lead batteries increased by 0.39 percentage points month - on - month to 75.36%. The energy storage battery market performed well, and the orders of medium - and large - scale enterprises were relatively full. The electric bicycle and automobile battery markets had some differences, with the original equipment supporting orders being better than the replacement orders. However, the soaring lead price might affect the enterprise's operating rate and raw material purchasing enthusiasm [64]. 5. Import and Export - As of October 17, the export loss of refined lead was about 3,100 yuan/ton. As of October 24, the import profit was 329.16 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was opened [74]. 6. Inventory - As of October 27, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 30,300 tons, and the inventory decreased. The warehouse of the main deliverable brands of primary lead was 1,520 tons, showing a month - on - month decline. The resumption of production of refineries was lower than expected, while the downstream operating rate steadily increased and the purchasing was active, leading to a decrease in lead ingot inventory [84]. - As of October 24, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 36,300 tons, showing a month - on - month decrease. As of October 23, the LME inventory was 235,400 tons, also showing a decrease [87]. - The monthly supply - demand balance sheet showed the production, export, import, consumption, and inventory data of primary and secondary lead from October 2024 to August 2025 [88].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai lead futures broke through and rose strongly. The smooth progress of China-US economic and trade consultations provided a good macro - atmosphere. The slow resumption of refineries, better - than - expected downstream demand, and vehicle control due to environmental protection in Henan intensified the short - term supply - demand mismatch. The social inventory dropped to a low level, triggering a soft squeeze on near - month contracts. Although refineries are resuming production and the lead ingot import window is open, it takes time. Before the market supply is effectively alleviated, the lead price is expected to remain volatile and strong [3][7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - From October 17th to October 24th, the SHFE lead price increased from 17,075 yuan/ton to 17,595 yuan/ton, up 520 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,971 dollars/ton to 2,016.5 dollars/ton, up 45.5 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.66 to 8.73, up 0.06. The上期所库存 decreased by 5,368 tons to 36,333 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 15,025 tons to 235,375 tons. The social inventory decreased by 0.57 million tons to 3.19 million tons, and the spot premium remained unchanged at - 215 yuan/ton [4]. Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai lead futures PB2512 had an intraday abnormal movement on Thursday, breaking through 17,500 yuan/ton and continuing to rise. The main contract price increased with increased positions. On Thursday night, the market sentiment was digested, and on Friday, the lead price fluctuated and consolidated at a high level, finally closing at 17,595 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1%. LME lead fluctuated strongly. The easing of China - US trade relations improved market risk appetite, and the slight decline in LME inventory led to a small rebound after stabilization, returning above the 2,000 dollars/ton level, finally closing at 2,016.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.28%. In the spot market, as of October 24th, the price of lead in Shanghai market was 17,490 - 17,550 yuan/ton, at par with the SHFE 2511 contract. The high - level consolidation of Shanghai lead made the sellers' enthusiasm for selling average, with few and firm quotes. Due to the expanded price difference between futures and spot, traders preferred to deliver to the warehouse, and the spot circulation in the retail market further decreased. Downstream enterprises were more wait - and - see, and the high price of lead made them cautious in purchasing, mostly relying on long - term contracts or digesting existing inventories [5]. Industry News - In November, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 350 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton, and the import ore processing fee was - 125 dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 dollars/dry ton. From January to August 2025, the global lead market had a supply surplus of 51,000 tons, compared with a supply shortage of 17,000 tons in the same period last year. Hebei will control incoming vehicles, affecting the transportation of waste materials and lead ingots of local recycling lead and lead battery enterprises. An East China small recycling lead refinery postponed its resumption of production. Silvercorp's lead production in the second quarter of 2025 was 14.2 million pounds, an 8% year - on - year increase. In September, the import volume of lead concentrate was 150,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.72% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.21%. A Jiangxi recycling lead smelter suspended production in late October [8][9]. Related Charts - The report provides charts showing the prices of SHFE and LME lead, the Shanghai - London ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium and discount, LME lead premium and discount, the price difference between primary lead and recycled refined lead, waste battery prices, recycling lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead production, recycled refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][14][16][18][20][22][24][28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] Core Viewpoints - The improvement in lead consumption has increased the downstream's enthusiasm for lead ingot procurement, and the domestic social lead inventory has dropped to its lowest level in over a year. Positive factors for the terminal demand of the non - ferrous sector revealed in domestic important meetings have led to a significant increase in lead prices this week. However, due to the intermittent interference of trade dispute uncertainties and the suppression of demand caused by rising lead prices, the possibility of a continuous sharp increase in lead prices in the future is relatively low. The recommended trading strategy for next week is to buy on dips for hedging, with a suggested buying range of 17,250 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Directory Lead Market Analysis - **Mine End**: In the week of October 24, the import ore market trading was stagnant, and sporadic quotes had little reference value. Domestically, smelters in Henan, Inner Mongolia and other places were still in the process of winter storage, and partial maintenance slightly eased the supply pressure. There was a significant difference in processing fees between the north and the south. In the north, it was maintained at 300 - 400 yuan/metal ton, and some manufacturers with sufficient inventory quoted 500 - 600 yuan/ton; in the south, the competition was fierce, and some manufacturers purchased low - silver ore at zero processing fees to ensure production. Despite the recent sharp rise in silver prices, the market remained cautious about adjusting the pricing coefficient and it was expected to remain stable in the short term [1] - **Primary Lead**: In the week of October 24, the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 67.57%, a decrease of 0.93 percentage points from the previous week. Regional performance was differentiated: production in Henan and Yunnan was stable; a maintenance enterprise in Hunan only resumed half - production and had no plan to reach full production; production in North China increased slightly and was expected to return to normal next month. In addition, a factory in East China planned to conduct maintenance in the fourth quarter, and the electrolytic lead production line would start in November [1] - **Recycled Lead**: In the week of October 24, the weekly operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces decreased by 0.51 percentage points to 36.71%. Recycled lead enterprises generally lowered the purchase price of raw materials this week, and the weakening cost support led to a decrease in production willingness. Although some manufacturers replenished raw materials due to the decline in the price of waste batteries, the increase in production was mainly concentrated on long - term order delivery. The resumption of production of a large enterprise in Inner Mongolia drove the regional operating rate to rise, while other regions maintained stable operation. An Anhui smelter planned to start maintenance on the weekend, which was expected to significantly reduce the local operating level next week. Overall, the recycled lead industry showed a differentiated trend of "increasing in the north and decreasing in the south" [2] - **Consumption**: In the week of October 24, the operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces increased by 7.10 percentage points to 42.21%. Regionally, the operating rate in Anhui increased slightly due to the production increase of an individual smelter; Jiangsu and Henan remained stable; the operating rate in Inner Mongolia soared by 56 percentage points driven by the resumption of production of a large factory. The high - level operation of lead prices improved smelting profits, and enterprises' production willingness increased. It was expected that the operating rate would still have room for further increase next week [2] - **Inventory**: As of the week of May 23, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions decreased to 3.19 tons, a change of - 2.05 tons from the previous week. The LME inventory changed by - 4375 tons to 235375 tons compared with the previous week [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic lead market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with lead futures showing significant price movements and positive market sentiment driven by various factors including inventory levels and production rates [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - On October 23, lead futures opened at 17,160.00 CNY/ton and reached a high of 17,760.00 CNY, marking a 3.12% increase [1] - The lead market is characterized by a strong performance, with expectations for continued upward movement in the short term [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Lead ore port inventories have increased, while lead concentrate treatment charges (TC) have stabilized, maintaining high operating rates for primary lead smelting [1] - The supply of recycled lead is tightening, with a recovery in profits for recycled lead smelting, leading to increased weekly operating rates [1][2] - Domestic and foreign lead inventories are on the rise, indicating a slowdown in demand [2] Group 3: Demand Factors - Downstream lead-acid battery manufacturers are experiencing a decline in inventory levels, with battery factory stocks dropping to 19.7 days and dealer inventories to 39.7 days, alleviating pressure on finished goods [1] - Despite the traditional peak season for battery production, demand remains cautious, with a slow recovery observed in the overall market [2] - Emerging storage demand is showing positive trends, partially offsetting weaknesses in traditional demand sectors [2][3]