Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The long - term upward trend of copper remains intact, with high - level volatility. The 2025 annual average price is expected to be around $9400, higher than in 2024. Trade negotiations and global trade order are key concerns [2][8]. - Aluminum prices are relatively high, with the supply growth rate expected to decline in 2025. The price may be high in the first half and low in the second half, and macro factors may amplify price fluctuations [9][15]. - Zinc consumption has a weak outlook, and the price is expected to range between RMB 21,000 - 25,500 per ton for SHFE zinc and $2500 - 3300 per ton for LME zinc [17][36]. - Tin fundamentals are strong, and prices are expected to remain high - level volatile. The estimated price range is RMB 236,000 - 305,000 per ton for SHFE tin and $29,000 - 38,000 per ton for LME tin [37][48]. - For nickel, supply is in surplus, and costs are rising. The price of SHFE nickel is expected to have difficulty breaking through the RMB 120,000 - 130,000 per ton range [53][69]. - Lithium prices are expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a core price range of RMB 60,000 - 90,000 per ton [90]. - Gold prices may continue to hit new highs, with international prices predicted to reach $4000 - 4100 per ounce and domestic prices to reach RMB 920 - 950 per gram [91][103]. - Silver prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level, driven by multiple attributes [103][110]. - The industrial silicon futures market is developing steadily, and the industry is facing supply - demand imbalance, with supply exceeding demand expected to continue in 2025 [111][117]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market - **Global Supply and Demand**: In 2024, the growth of global copper concentrate production was lower than that of demand. In 2025, many mining companies lowered production targets. The shortage of copper concentrate supply will take time to ease, and overseas medium - and long - term refined copper demand is expected to grow [2]. - **China's Supply and Demand**: Domestic scrap copper direct utilization is decreasing, and supply is expected to be tight in 2025. Refined copper production growth is constrained by raw material supply, and terminal demand is driven by power grids, home appliances, and automobiles, while the real estate sector is a drag [3][6]. - **Macro - market Analysis**: Capital inflows into copper due to its industrial and financial attributes. Trump's potential 25% tariff on copper would increase short - term price volatility and change the global supply chain [7]. - **Price Forecast**: The long - term upward trend of copper remains, but short - term policy uncertainty has a great impact. The 2025 annual average price is expected to be around $9400, higher than in 2024 [8]. Aluminum Market - **Supply Analysis**: Future new electrolytic aluminum projects are mainly in Asia. China's production growth rate will slow down in 2025, and global production growth may decline. China's imports may also decrease [10][11]. - **Demand Analysis**: Aluminum consumption growth may slow down in 2025, with exports expected to decline and domestic demand growth difficult to improve [12]. - **Price Forecast**: As long as China's production ceiling is not lifted, there is price support, but cost reduction and weak demand limit the upside. Prices may be high in the first half and low in the second half [15]. Zinc Market - **Supply Analysis**: Zinc concentrate production has been declining, but exploration investment is slowly recovering. Import volume has increased, and processing fees have rebounded [18][23]. - **Demand Analysis**: Overseas zinc consumption in various fields is still weak, while domestic consumption shows resilience, but there are potential impacts from tariffs on exports [30][31]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to range between RMB 21,000 - 25,500 per ton for SHFE zinc and $2500 - 3300 per ton for LME zinc [36]. Tin Market - **2024 Market Analysis**: In 2024, tin prices rose, inventories decreased, production increased, and consumption improved [37][38]. - **2025 Trend Outlook**: Global tin ore supply may decline in 2025, and there will be a shortage of over 20,000 tons. The price is expected to remain high - level volatile [41][44]. - **Price Forecast**: The estimated price range is RMB 236,000 - 305,000 per ton for SHFE tin and $29,000 - 38,000 per ton for LME tin [48]. Nickel Market - **Supply and Demand**: Nickel ore supply is mainly from Indonesia. Supply is in surplus, and demand lacks highlights. China's stainless steel production supports nickel consumption [53][56]. - **Cost and Price**: The cost of the nickel industry is rising, and the price of SHFE nickel is expected to have difficulty breaking through the RMB 120,000 - 130,000 per ton range [60][69]. Lithium Market - **Supply and Demand**: In 2025, lithium supply is increasing, and demand is also high. There is a surplus in the market, but the surplus is narrowing [75][84]. - **Price Forecast**: Lithium prices are expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a core price range of RMB 60,000 - 90,000 per ton [90]. Gold Market - **Market Review**: From 2018 - 2025, various factors such as trade frictions and geopolitical conflicts have stimulated the rise of gold prices [91]. - **Price Forecast**: International gold prices are predicted to reach $4000 - 4100 per ounce, and domestic prices to reach RMB 920 - 950 per gram [103]. Silver Market - **Fundamentals**: In 2024, global silver supply increased, and demand decreased. In 2025, the supply shortage is expected to further narrow [103]. - **Price Forecast**: Silver prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level, driven by multiple attributes [110]. Silicon Market - **Futures Market**: The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are developing steadily, with increasing trading volume and participation [111][112]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In 2025, the silicon industry is facing supply - demand imbalance, with supply exceeding demand expected to continue [114][117].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For copper, the inventory depletion rate may continue to slow down, and attention should be paid to the consumption inflection point. The weekend's Sino-US negotiation rumors may boost market sentiment. For the month spread, the current inter - month positive spread has shown a large space, and subsequent upward momentum requires substantial shortages or a decline in absolute prices. [1] - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly, and the demand expectation in May does not decline significantly. There is still a supply - demand gap. It is recommended to wait and see on the absolute price, take profit on the aluminum internal - external reverse spread, and continue to hold the inter - month positive spread if the absolute price drops. [1] - For zinc, the zinc price center has moved down slightly in a volatile manner. It is in a situation of strong current reality and weak expectation. It is recommended to short at high prices, continue to hold the internal - external positive spread, and pay attention to the inter - month reverse spread opportunity after mid - May. [2] - For nickel, the short - term fundamental situation is weak, and there is still instability in tariffs and continuous disturbances at the mine end. Attention should be paid to Indonesia's tariff policy on China and the opportunity for the nickel - stainless steel price ratio to shrink. [4] - For stainless steel, the overall fundamentals remain weak, and under the influence of tariffs, the steel mill's profit is under pressure. The unilateral price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, and the reverse spread can be rolled over and continued to be held. [7] - For lead, the lead price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 and 16,900 next week, and the supply in May is expected to decrease cyclically. [8] - For tin, in the short term, the domestic raw material supply is still disturbed, and the fundamentals are expected to remain tight in the first half of the year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - long term. [8] - For industrial silicon, the short - term supply - demand double - reduction pattern is obvious, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - long term. [10] - For lithium carbonate, in the short - term, the downstream demand enters a small peak season, but the demand improvement is less than expected. In the medium - long term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. [12] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed from 225 to - 35, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 394, and the Shanghai copper warehouse receipt increased by 20,912. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In April, China's copper concentrate imports increased. The demand shows a co - existence of strong current reality and weak expectation. The inventory depletion slope may continue to slow down. [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 195, the domestic alumina price increased by 12, and the spot import profit decreased by 132.42. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has increased slightly, and the demand expectation in May does not decline significantly. The inventory is expected to be depleted gently from May to July. [1] Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium decreased by 120, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 190, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 900. [2] - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic TC increased slightly this week, and the smelting maintenance in May decreased slightly. The demand has limited impetus from the rush - installation stimulus. The domestic social inventory is at a low level, and the inflection point from inventory depletion to accumulation is expected to appear in mid - to late May. [2] Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore decreased by 0.5, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1,550, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 84. [3] - **Supply and Demand**: The pure nickel production remains at a high level, the demand is weak, the overseas nickel plate inventory is slightly depleted, and the domestic inventory remains stable. [4] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of waste stainless steel increased by 50. [7] - **Supply and Demand**: In April, the production increased seasonally, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has increased after the festival. [7] Lead - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium remained at - 120, the LME lead inventory decreased by 2,900. [8] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is expected to decrease cyclically in May. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 and 16,900 next week. [8] Tin - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot import profit increased by 2,537.61, the LME tin inventory decreased by 15. [8] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has some changes such as the复产 of African mines, and the demand side has a weakening expectation. The short - term fundamentals are tight, and the medium - long - term attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities. [8] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 260, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 37. [10] - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term supply - demand double - reduction pattern is obvious, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - long term. [10] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 100, the主力合约基差 decreased by 1,880, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 272. [12] - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term demand enters a small peak season, but the demand improvement is less than expected. In the medium - long term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both single - side and arbitrage strategies is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - Affected by the positive sentiment of Sino - US talks, commodity prices generally rose, but zinc prices were relatively weak due to weak fundamental data, increasing TC, supply pressure, an open zinc ingot import window, and signs of inventory accumulation. If the inventory accumulation trend continues, the downside space for zinc prices may open. In the spot market, high premiums have significantly declined due to increased inventory and more relaxed supply. Consumption in May may face challenges, with the possibility of a month - on - month decline after May [3] Summary by Related Content Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium was - 26.13 dollars/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped 50 yuan/ton to 22720 yuan/ton, and its spot premium dropped 50 yuan/ton to 430 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped 50 yuan/ton to 22720 yuan/ton, and its spot premium dropped 50 yuan/ton to 430 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price dropped 60 yuan/ton to 22690 yuan/ton, and its spot premium dropped 60 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On May 12, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22360 yuan/ton, closed at 22490 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 229910 lots, an increase of 89893 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 118030 lots, a decrease of 1140 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22080 - 22515 yuan/ton [1] Inventory - As of May 12, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 8.55 million tons, an increase of 0.14 million tons from the same period last week. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 169850 tons, a decrease of 475 tons from the previous trading day [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - sentiment is generally stable and positive with eased trade frictions and expected domestic monetary policies. The raw material supply is expected to be loose, and the TC increase space in May is limited. The zinc price is expected to be weak, ranging from 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton. If the zinc price rebounds with the macro - sentiment, short positions can be considered. Continuous attention should be paid to the macro and downstream consumption situations [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 zinc ingot average price decreased by 0.87% to 22,700 yuan/ton, Shanghai zinc main contract closing price dropped by 1.60% to 22,190 yuan/ton, and LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) rose by 2.95% to 2,653.5 dollars/ton [15]. 3.2 Zinc Concentrate Situation - **Port Inventory**: As of May 9, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 130,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period. The total inventory of 7 ports was 390,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons [28]. - **Profit**: As of May 8, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 4,774 yuan/metal ton. In March, the zinc concentrate import volume was 359,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22.09% and a year - on - year increase of 47.16% [35]. - **TC**: The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee increased slightly. As of May 9, the average import TC was 40 dollars/dry ton, and the average domestic TC was 3,500 yuan/metal ton [3]. 3.3 Refined Zinc Situation - **Production**: The production profit of refined zinc enterprises fluctuated slightly. As of May 8, the production profit was - 494 yuan/ton. In April, the output increased to 555,400 tons. In May, the output is expected to remain stable [43]. - **Import**: The Shanghai - London ratio rose, and the import profit window opened. As of May 9, the import profit of refined zinc was 66.05 yuan/ton. From January to March 2025, the refined zinc import volume was 1.01 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43,000 tons [47]. 3.4 Downstream Industry Situation - **Galvanizing**: The galvanizing enterprise's operating rate increased by 11.26 percentage points to 60.87%. The raw material and finished product inventories decreased. Terminal orders from special - high - voltage projects were released, but export orders decreased due to tariff uncertainties [55][58]. - **Die - Casting Zinc Alloy**: The price of zinc alloy declined. The operating rate increased by 5.59 percentage points to 54.6%. The raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory increased. Electronic product orders were okay, but traditional hardware and export orders were weak [66][70][73]. - **Zinc Oxide**: The price of zinc oxide decreased. The operating rate increased by 1.16 percentage points to 59.73%. The raw material and finished product inventories decreased. Rubber - grade and feed - grade orders weakened, ceramic - grade orders were stable, and export was uncertain due to anti - dumping investigations [81][84][87]. 3.5 Inventory Situation - **Social Inventory**: As of May 8, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 72,300 tons, an increase. The SMM zinc ingot bonded area inventory was 7,600 tons, a decrease [94]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of May 9, the SHFE inventory was 47,100 tons, a decrease. The LME inventory was 170,300 tons, a decrease [97]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from January 2024 to March 2025, with some months in short supply and others in surplus [98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - Zinc prices maintain a volatile pattern. Consumption resilience and inventory changes are the main factors affecting zinc prices. The consumption side may face a test in May, with a possible sequential weakening in consumption after May. [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$36.93/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 80 yuan/ton to 22,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium fell by 15 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 80 yuan/ton to 22,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium fell by 15 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 70 yuan/ton to 22,830 yuan/ton, and the spot premium fell by 25 yuan/ton to 480 yuan/ton. [2] - **Futures**: On May 8, 2025, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at 22,245 yuan/ton, closed at 22,175 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 222,075 lots, an increase of 66,119 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 119,907 lots, an increase of 3,206 lots. The highest price reached 22,455 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 22,070 yuan/ton. [2] - **Inventory**: As of May 8, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 83,300 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons from the same period last week. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 170,650 tons, a decrease of 750 tons from the previous trading day. [3] 3.2 Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Trading has been lukewarm. Rising absolute prices have dampened downstream purchasing enthusiasm, leading to a slight decline in spot premiums. However, overall inventory is low and supply is tight, so spot premiums remain at a high level. [4] - **Cost**: TC remains high and relatively stable, with limited upside potential in the future. But it does not affect smelters' profitability, so TC is not the main concern for now. [4] - **Supply**: The expected output in May is slightly lower, but still shows a high year - on - year growth. There may also be a delay in maintenance, so the supply pressure persists. [4] - **Consumption**: This is the current focus. The continuous decline in social inventory supports zinc prices. Consumption resilience and inventory changes are the main factors affecting zinc prices. Consumption in May may face a test, and there may be a sequential weakening in consumption after May due to the approaching end of the export rush window and over - drafting. [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Low inventory is the main current concern, and consumer resilience and inventory changes are the main factors affecting zinc prices [1][3] - The cost of TC is not the main concern, the supply - side pressure remains, and the consumer side is the focus, with a possible weakening of consumption after May [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$37.09/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 50 yuan/ton to 22,860 yuan/ton, SMM Shanghai zinc spot premium rose by 50 yuan/ton to 460 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 40 yuan/ton to 22,910 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong zinc spot premium rose by 60 yuan/ton to 510 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 50 yuan/ton to 22,900 yuan/ton, SMM Tianjin zinc spot premium rose by 50 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On May 6, 2025, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at 22,390 yuan/ton, closed at 22,355 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 115,056 lots, a decrease of 306 lots, and the position was 111,715 lots, an increase of 5,719 lots. The highest price was 22,580 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,300 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: As of May 6, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 84,100 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from last week. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 172,925 tons, a decrease of 875 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - **Cost**: TC remains high and relatively stable, with limited upward space in the future, and it is not the main concern for now [3] - **Supply**: The expected output in May will decline slightly but still maintain high - year - on - year growth, and there may be a delay in maintenance, so the supply - side pressure remains [3] - **Consumption**: It is the current focus. The continuous decline in social inventory and the rising spot premium support zinc prices. However, consumption may face a test in May, and there is a possibility of a month - on - month weakening after May [3] Strategy - Unilateral strategy is neutral [4] - Arbitrage strategy is neutral [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel - Short after a rebound [1] - Stainless steel - Hold [1] - Zinc - Bearish outlook [4] Core Views - **Nickel**: Despite a short - term rebound due to cost - related factors and market sentiment, the fundamental oversupply trend remains unchanged. The support from the mine end is not sustainable. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation in the Philippines after the rainy season and the demand difference between stainless steel and nickel due to US tariff policies [2]. - **Zinc**: The impact of tariffs has temporarily receded. In the short - term, the supply is changing from tight to loose, and in the medium - to long - term, the market remains in an oversupply state, with a bearish outlook [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro & Industry News - **Nickel**: In 2024, GreenMei achieved an operating income of 33.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.75%, and a net profit of 1.02 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.19%. The annual output of nickel metal was 51,677 tons, a year - on - year increase of 91%. The company has built a nickel resource production capacity of 150,000 tons per year in Indonesia [1]. - **Zinc**: The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) predicts that in 2025, the global refined zinc supply will exceed demand by 93,000 tons. Global refined zinc demand is expected to grow by 1% to 13.64 million tons, and production will grow by 1.8% to 13.73 million tons [4]. Mine End - **Nickel**: Indonesia raised mining royalties on the 26th, and the price of nickel mines at the port of destination in the Philippines rebounded. Although the seasonal loosening of the nickel mine supply has not yet appeared, under normal circumstances, the possibility of the mine end turning loose is still high [1]. - **Zinc**: The profit of mining enterprises has been affected by tariff policies, but the TC price has not declined, indicating no production cuts at the mine end. Meanwhile, imports at the mine end have significantly recovered [4]. Smelting - **Nickel**: China's imports of pure nickel are relatively small, while domestic production has recovered rapidly. The total supply of domestic electrolytic nickel has decreased month - on - month but remains at a historically high level. The production cost of electrowinning nickel has risen to 124,000 yuan per ton [2]. - **Zinc**: The TC price at the smelting end has rebounded to 3,400 - 3,500 yuan per ton. The profit of integrated enterprises has shrunk but remains at a relatively high level. The static profit of pure smelting enterprises has turned negative again, but with by - product income, the profit has turned positive. The possibility of production cuts is extremely low [5]. Demand - **Nickel**: Stainless steel is not on the US tariff list, so its export demand may increase, which may form a strong - weak relationship with nickel. The relatively high price of nickel - iron has led to low profits for stainless steel manufacturers, which may affect subsequent production and reduce the demand for nickel [2]. - **Zinc**: The "Golden March and Silver April" demand peak season is coming to an end. The capacity utilization rate and output of galvanizing are not high, and manufacturers' production enthusiasm is low. The inventory of steel mills is low, while social inventory has started to accumulate. Galvanizing manufacturers' expectations for terminal demand are pessimistic, and the demand for zinc ingots is starting to decline [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices have rebounded mainly due to the easing of tariff attitudes and strong support from the spot end, but the sustainability of consumption remains to be observed. Near the May Day holiday, it is recommended to wait and see [2][3][7]. - Alumina prices have continued to decline, leading to an expansion of industry losses. The short - term market situation has alleviated the oversupply pattern, but the price is still under pressure. It is recommended to wait for the price to rebound and then short [10][14][15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is necessary to pay attention to changes in tariff policies and domestic demand - boosting policies [19][23][24]. - Zinc prices may rebound in the short term due to overseas zinc mine shutdown news, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [27][30][31]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term range, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [34][35][37]. - Nickel prices follow macro - sentiment fluctuations in the short term and should be shorted on rebounds in the medium term [42][44][45]. - Stainless steel prices follow nickel prices and macro - changes in the short term and may decline in the medium term if the global economy enters a recession [47][49][50]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see for options [53][58][59]. - Industrial silicon prices are under pressure due to high inventory. Even if there is a rebound, it is an opportunity to short [61][64][65]. - Polysilicon 2506 contract will follow the delivery logic, and the price will be repaired upwards. It is recommended to go long on PS2506 and short on PS2511 for arbitrage [66][68][69]. - Lithium carbonate prices are recommended to be shorted on rebounds, hold put ratio options, and wait and see for arbitrage [70][72][75]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Copper 2505 contract closed at 77,600 yuan, a decrease of 0.5%. The Shanghai Copper Index increased its positions by 4,180 lots to 534,100 lots. The spot copper price fluctuated downward, and the downstream demand for receiving goods weakened [2]. - **Important Information**: As of April 24, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 14,800 tons to 181,700 tons compared with Monday, and decreased by 51,700 tons compared with last Thursday. Canadian miner Teck Resources' copper sales increased in Q1, and Anglo American's copper production decreased in Q1, but both maintained their annual production guidance [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of copper ore is tight, processing fees are declining, and the price of sulfuric acid is falling. The supply of scrap copper has increased after the price rebound, and the downstream consumption has weakened, but the inventory is low, and there is restocking demand before May Day [3][6]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [7][12]. Alumina - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Alumina 2505 contract increased by 35 yuan/ton to 2,847 yuan/ton, and the positions decreased by 16,659 lots to 381,200 lots. The spot price increased slightly [9]. - **Related Information**: A large - scale alumina enterprise in Shandong completed the overhaul of a 1 - million - ton production line, and the 2.5 - million - ton old production line will be shut down. As of April 24, the national alumina inventory decreased by 26,000 tons to 3.423 million tons [10][11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in alumina prices has led to an expansion of industry losses. The short - term market situation has alleviated the oversupply pattern, but the price is still under pressure due to factors such as new production capacity and high inventory [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait for the price to rebound and then short for unilateral trading, and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [15][12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract closed at 19,930 yuan/ton, an increase of 115 yuan/ton, and the positions increased by 8,103 lots to 536,500 lots. The spot price increased [18]. - **Related Information**: Trump said he might "significantly reduce" tariffs on China, but there is no actual negotiation. The US 4 - month Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly expanded, and the aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories decreased [19][22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The weighted starting rate of aluminum processing has continued to decline, but the inventory is low. The import of aluminum ingots has increased, and the annual supply - demand is expected to be in surplus [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [24]. Zinc - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Zinc 2506 increased by 0.78% to 22,590 yuan/ton, and the positions of the Shanghai Zinc Index decreased by 4,124 lots to 231,400 lots. The spot price in Shanghai increased, but the downstream procurement was weak [26]. - **Related Information**: As of April 24, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased by 14,200 tons to 85,800 tons. Boliden's zinc concentrate production in Q1 increased, and Newmont's decreased [27][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: Overseas zinc mines have shut down, which may drive zinc prices to rebound. In April - May, domestic smelters have both maintenance and production increases, and the consumption is about to enter the off - season [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Zinc prices may rebound in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [31]. Lead - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Lead 2506 increased by 0.41% to 16,940 yuan/ton, and the positions of the Shanghai Lead Index decreased by 1,218 lots to 72,200 lots. The spot price increased slightly, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [33]. - **Related Information**: A regenerated lead smelter in the northwest shut down due to equipment failure, and a smelter in the south began lead - zinc smelting maintenance [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The waste battery recycling is weak, the regenerated lead smelting is in a loss state, and the lead - acid battery enterprises will stock up before the holiday, which will support the lead price [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term range. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [37]. Nickel - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Nickel NI2506 decreased by 130 to 125,770 yuan/ton, and the index positions increased by 3,012 lots. The spot premium decreased, and the sulfuric acid nickel price increased [39]. - **Related Information**: The global public debt is expected to exceed the level during the COVID - 19 period. Indonesia's "Titan Project" will continue, and Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt postponed the commissioning of its nickel smelting project [40][41]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - sentiment fluctuates, the supply of raw materials is gradually abundant, and the medium - term supply - demand is turning to be loose [42][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds in the medium term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [45]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: On April 24, the main SS2506 contract increased by 15 to 12,780 yuan/ton, and the index positions decreased by 2,661 lots. The spot price of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel is given [47]. - **Related Information**: As of April 24, the national mainstream stainless steel social inventory decreased by 0.78% week - on - week, mainly the 300 - series resources were digested [48]. - **Logic Analysis**: The prices of NPI and chrome ore have stopped rising, the demand is unclear, and the inventory digestion is slow [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow macro - fluctuations in the short term and decline in the medium term. Wait and see for arbitrage [50][51]. Tin - **Market Review**: On April 24, the Shanghai Tin 2505 contract closed at 259,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 920 yuan/ton or 0.36%. The spot price increased, but the actual transaction was limited [53][55]. - **Related Information**: The Wabang industrial and mineral management bureau held a meeting on the resumption of production in the Manxiang mine, and the cost of low - altitude mines and small and medium - sized concentrators may increase. Elementos released the feasibility study of its Oropesa tin project [56][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US Treasury Secretary's statement released a signal of trade war easing, but the market expectation is still volatile. The short - term tin ore supply is tight, but the annual supply - demand tightness is alleviated [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term. Wait and see for options [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract weakened on April 24, closing at 8,875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.11%. The spot price of some grades decreased [61]. - **Related Information**: Henan Rongwang New Materials plans to build a 1 - million - ton regenerated industrial silicon project [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory of industrial silicon is high, the demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. Even if there is a rebound, it is an opportunity to short [64]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds. Wait and see for options. Participate in the reverse arbitrage of Si2511 and Si2512 [65]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: On April 24, the polysilicon futures main contract rebounded, closing at 39,375 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.26%. The spot price decreased [66]. - **Related Information**: From January to March 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 30.5% year - on - year [67]. - **Logic Analysis**: The prices of components, silicon wafers, and batteries have decreased, and the industry is pessimistic about demand. The 2506 contract will follow the delivery logic [68]. - **Trading Strategy**: The 2506 contract price will be repaired upwards. Go long on PS2506 and short on PS2511 for arbitrage [69]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: On April 24, the main 2507 contract increased by 40 to 68,300 yuan/ton, and the index positions decreased by 1,200 lots. The spot price decreased [70]. - **Related Information**: LG Energy Solution withdrew from an Indonesian project, and a new energy technology company was established. Jilin Province introduced consumption - boosting policies [71]. - **Logic Analysis**: Multiple factors led to a short - term price rebound, but the industrial logic is still bearish. The supply may increase in May, and the price may be under pressure [72]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds, wait and see for arbitrage, and hold put ratio options [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's tariff policies have a significant impact on the global financial market and有色金属 prices. Short - term price fluctuations are intense, and the medium - term supply - demand fundamentals of various metals are still the main factors affecting prices [3][18][37] - For different metals, the report provides corresponding trading strategies based on their supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and policy impacts [3][10][23] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2504 contract closed at 75,400 yuan, up 4.23%, and the Shanghai Copper Index increased its position by 3,919 lots to 543,300 lots. The spot premium decreased [2] - **Important Information**: As of April 10, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased significantly. It is expected that the supply will be tight next week, and the demand increase will be limited, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline [2] - **Logic Analysis**: Trump's tariff suspension announcement led to a short - term rebound in LME copper. The fundamentals show a back structure, and the impact of the trade war on orders may appear after April. It is recommended to short on rebounds [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions and wait and see for arbitrage [3] Alumina - **Market Review**: The Alumina 2505 contract rose 35 yuan/ton to 2,790 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 20,444 lots to 392,500 lots. The spot price decreased in most regions [5] - **Related Information**: Multiple alumina plants are undergoing maintenance, and new production lines are put into operation. The national alumina inventory increased, and the price of imported bauxite decreased [6][7] - **Logic Analysis**: Although the short - term supply - demand surplus situation is alleviated, it is difficult to change in the medium - term. It is recommended to short after the rebound [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Short the price, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy put options [10][11] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2505 contract closed at 19,805 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 19,603 lots to 509,800 lots. The spot price increased [13] - **Related Information**: Trump adjusted the tariff policy, and China counter - imposed tariffs. The US 10 - year Treasury yield soared. The domestic aluminum inventory decreased, and the CPI and PPI data were released [14][16] - **Trading Logic**: Trump's tariff suspension led to a market rebound. The tariff may affect aluminum exports, and the domestic second - quarter demand and inventory will support the basis and month - to - month spread [18] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the short - term due to macro - uncertainty, expect the AL05 - 08 contract spread to widen, and wait and see for options [23] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2505 rose 2.92% to 22,705 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Zinc Index decreased by 17,515 lots to 208,600 lots. The downstream procurement was cautious [21] - **Related Information**: As of April 10, the domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased, and the spot trading improved [22] - **Logic Analysis**: In April, the domestic zinc concentrate supply is still loose, and the smelting plant is profitable. The consumption in April is expected to be boosted [25] - **Trading Strategy**: The zinc price runs strongly in the short - term and can be shorted on highs in the long - term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [26] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2505 rose 1.97% to 16,800 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Lead Index decreased by 7,357 lots to 81,800 lots. The spot price increased, and the supply and demand were weak [28] - **Related Information**: As of April 10, the domestic lead ingot inventory decreased [29] - **Logic Analysis**: In April, the supply of primary lead may decrease due to maintenance, and the raw materials of secondary lead smelters are in short supply. The consumption is weak, and attention should be paid to imports [30] - **Trading Strategy**: The lead price may rebound in the short - term, and there is a risk of further decline. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [31][33] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2505 fell 2,690 to 121,600 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 7,287 lots. The spot premium decreased [35] - **Related Information**: The EU announced counter - measures against US tariffs, and the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts is cautious [36] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term raw materials are tight, and the spot premium is strong. The medium - term supply may be in surplus, and it is recommended to short after the rebound [37] - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is weak, wait and see for arbitrage and options [38][39][40] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2505 contract fell 35 to 12,675 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased by 734 lots. The spot price range is 12,700 - 13,200 yuan/ton for cold - rolled and 12,700 - 12,800 yuan/ton for hot - rolled [43] - **Related Information**: The EU may impose import restrictions on stainless steel [44] - **Logic Analysis**: The nickel price is weak, and the stainless steel demand is poor. It is expected to be weak in the short - term [45] - **Trading Strategy**: The price fluctuates weakly, and pay attention to domestic stimulus policies. Wait and see for arbitrage [46][47] Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Tin 2505 contract closed at 257,200 yuan/ton, down 2,220 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 392 lots to 77,660 lots. The spot price decreased [49] - **Related Information**: The Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) is resuming production, and Indonesia may increase the mining royalty rate. The Myanmar earthquake affects the resumption of production [50][52][53] - **Logic Analysis**: The resumption of production in Congo (Kinshasa) affects the price, and the supply in Indonesia and Myanmar is uncertain. The downward space of the tin price may be limited [54] - **Trading Strategy**: The supply contradiction is weakened, and the macro - sentiment improves. Be cautious in operation and wait and see for options [55][56] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract opened slightly higher and fluctuated narrowly, closing at 9,555 yuan/ton. The spot price of some grades decreased [58] - **Related Information**: Trump suspended tariffs on some countries, and a 100,000 - ton industrial silicon project was put into operation [59] - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory is high, and the price is difficult to reverse. The cost decreases, and the short - term price may rebound [60] - **Trading Strategy**: Operate within the range, wait and see for options, and participate in the reverse arbitrage of Si2511 and Si2512 [61] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract opened high and closed low, closing at 42,190 yuan/ton, down 1.01%. The spot price of some enterprises decreased [62] - **Related Information**: Trump suspended tariffs on some countries [63][64] - **Logic Analysis**: In April, the polysilicon industry will reduce inventory. There are risks of insufficient warehouse receipts and falling spot prices. Adjust the trading strategy [65] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long in the short - term and avoid short - selling. Hold the positive arbitrage of PS2506 and PS2511, and hold the reverse arbitrage of PS2511 and PS2512 [66] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2505 contract rose 1,060 to 70,540 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased by 4,973 lots. The spot price increased [67] - **Related Information**: A photovoltaic project was signed [68] - **Logic Analysis**: The trade war may affect lithium battery exports. The supply is expected to increase after May, and the price may fluctuate weakly [69][71] - **Trading Strategy**: Close short positions appropriately below 70,000, enter the market again on rebounds, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [72]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The反复 US tariff policy has triggered market concerns and affected market risk appetite, while the cautious adjustment of the Fed's monetary policy has also impacted the commodity market. However, the positive support of domestic policies and the continuous recovery of market demand have provided support for commodity prices. Future attention should be paid to the US tariff policy and the risk of price fluctuations in the commodity market caused by unexpected changes in the Fed's monetary policy [4][48]. - For aluminum, the macro - overseas policy is still in a state of game, and there are uncertainties in overseas tariff policies. The domestic economy is expected to maintain a stable and progressive development trend. In the short term, with macro - support and the peak season resonance, aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high - level range in the second quarter [4][102]. - For zinc, in the second quarter, the supply and demand of zinc are expected to increase. In April, it may be supported by the phased recovery of demand, but in the long - term, zinc prices may face greater pressure from the continuous supply surplus. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate weakly in the second quarter [8]. - For tin, due to frequent problems in overseas mines and the slowdown of the recovery of the supply side, tin prices are expected to remain high in the second quarter [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro: The US Tariff Window is Approaching, Focus on the Evolution of Domestic and Overseas Demand Market Operation Logic - **US**: The manufacturing industry has re - entered the contraction range, with the March ISM manufacturing PMI at 49, down 1.3 points from the previous month. The labor market shows signs of a mild slowdown, and inflation pressure has eased but remains resilient. The Fed's monetary policy adjustment will be more cautious, and it is expected that the Fed will continue to suspend interest rate cuts at the May FOMC meeting [18][19][21]. - **Eurozone**: The economic growth momentum is still weak. Although inflation is on a downward trend, the ECB will carefully balance economic growth and inflation risks. The April ECB meeting may suspend interest rate cuts but may release a clearer easing signal, and the probability of a rate cut in June has increased [23][25][26]. - **China**: The economy started smoothly with policies taking the lead. From January to February, infrastructure investment increased significantly, manufacturing investment remained at a high level, and the decline in real estate development investment narrowed. The consumer market showed a mild recovery, and financial data showed strong social financing but weak credit. The domestic price level maintained a mild upward trend [31][33][48]. Market Trend Judgment - Overseas, the Fed's monetary policy adjustment will be more cautious, and the ECB will also balance economic growth and inflation risks. Domestically, the economy continues to recover, but attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff policies and insufficient domestic demand. The US tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy changes may cause price fluctuations in the commodity market [47][48]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors - Overseas economic trends, monetary policy changes, the evolution of the US tariff policy, overseas geopolitical risks, domestic incremental policies, and terminal demand [50]. 3.2 Aluminum: Expectations are Gradually Verified, Focus on Further Guidance Market Operation Logic - **Price Trend in Q1 2025**: In January, aluminum prices fluctuated strongly and then moved in a range. In February, they oscillated strongly with a slightly higher center of gravity. In March, they first rose and then fell [52][53]. - **Cost Side**: The price of bauxite is stable, and the supply of imported bauxite is expected to increase. The price of alumina is under pressure due to new production capacity. The cost of electrolytic aluminum has increased due to the rise in auxiliary materials [58][65][68]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The production of electrolytic aluminum increased in March, and the import window is closed. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to rise slightly in April [71][73]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The price difference between refined and scrap aluminum narrowed slightly. The import of scrap aluminum increased, but the terminal consumption of the recycled aluminum market was sluggish [76]. - **Demand Side**: The aluminum processing industry entered the expansion range in March. The terminal demand was divided, with strong demand in the power grid, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaic sectors, but weak demand in the real estate construction sector [80][86][92]. - **Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory**: In March, the domestic social inventory decreased during the peak season, which supported the price. However, the high - level operation of aluminum prices affected the spot supply - demand pattern of the aluminum industry chain [97]. Market Trend Judgment - Macro - overseas policies are still in a game, and there are uncertainties in overseas tariff policies. The domestic economy is expected to develop steadily. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high - level range in the second quarter, with support at 19,500 - 19,800 and pressure at 21,000 - 21,300 [102]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors - Macro - policy game, overseas event interference, mine resumption and shipping, inventory trends, and actual terminal demand [104]. 3.3 Zinc: Short - Term Positive Demand Expectations Provide Support, but Zinc Prices Remain Under Pressure in the Medium - to - Long Term Market Operation Logic - **Market Trend in Q1 2025**: In the first quarter, zinc prices fluctuated in a range with a lower center of gravity. In January, they weakened due to weakening fundamental support. In February, they moved in a range. In March, they were boosted by macro and peak - season expectations [106][108][109]. - **Zinc Concentrate**: The production of zinc concentrate is expected to increase, but the overall supply may not recover significantly in 2025. The processing fee continued to rise, indicating that the tight situation of the ore has eased. The import volume increased in the first two months, and the port inventory has improved [112][114][117]. - **Refined Zinc**: The profit of zinc smelters has been continuously repaired, and production enthusiasm has increased. The import window is closed, and there is an expectation of a reduction in imports in the second quarter [121][123]. - **Zinc Consumption**: Policy support is expected to boost zinc consumption growth, and attention should be paid to changes in the supply - demand relationship [8]. Market Trend Judgment - In the second quarter, the supply and demand of zinc are expected to increase. In April, it may be supported by the phased recovery of demand, but in the long - term, zinc prices may face greater pressure from the continuous supply surplus. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate weakly in the second quarter, with a reference price range of 22,500 - 24,500 yuan/ton [8]. 3.4 Tin: Tight Supply at the Mine End, Tin Prices Remain High Market Operation Logic - **Domestic Refined Tin**: The production of domestic refined tin increased, but the processing fee has dropped to a low level in recent years due to the tight supply of mines [8]. - **Overseas Supply**: Frequent problems in overseas mines, such as the possible delay of the resumption of production in Myanmar and the suspension of the Bisie mine in the DRC, have affected the global supply and pushed up tin prices [8]. - **Downstream Demand**: The semiconductor industry continues to grow, and the automotive and home appliance markets are optimistic. The overall demand is warm but may not exceed expectations [8]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors - There is no specific information provided in the given content about the later concerns/risk factors for tin.