PVC

Search documents
能源化策略:美国可能介?伊以冲突,原油延续较?波动率
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 02:58
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-06-20 美国可能介⼊伊以冲突,原油延续较⾼ 波动率 彭博报道,美国高层官员正在为未来几天对伊朗发动袭击做准备, 涉事人员也表示,情势仍在变化,可能会有所改变。从原油的波动率看, 6月18日拐头后6月19日再度攀升。市场依旧关注霍尔木兹海峡被封锁的可 能,期权市场近期开始反映这种风险,看涨期权相对于看跌期权的溢价居 高不下,超过了2022年俄乌冲突时对俄罗斯供应减量的担忧。原油的格局 仍处于动荡中。 板块逻辑: 化工品处于上下两难的格局当中,主逻辑仍是跟随原油延续强势上 涨。化工链条公布周度数据,整体呈现终端开工下滑,上游开工攀升的格 局。以聚酯产业链为例,EG开工率升至五年最高,TA开工率周度略降, 聚酯周度开工小幅抬升,终端织造和印染开工下滑2-3%。产业链自身利好 仍略显平淡,原油延续强势,化工补涨仍是近期的主基调。 原油:地缘风险加剧,油价波动放大 LPG:成本端支撑增加,PG跟随原油反弹 沥青:地缘升级,沥青地缘溢价来袭 高硫燃油:地缘升级,高硫燃油地缘溢价来袭 低硫燃油:低硫燃油期价跟随原油走强 甲醇:伊以 ...
《能源化工》日报-20250619
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 01:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the polyolefin industry, oil price surges suppress the cost - end, profits are compressed to the lowest level of the year, and inventories are differentiated. PE is recommended for positive spreads, while PP is recommended for short - positions in the medium - term [21]. - In the methanol industry, due to geopolitical conflicts, the market has a strong long - position sentiment. Short - term strategies are recommended for positive spreads, and it is necessary to track the situation in Iran and MTO dynamics [30]. - In the PVC and caustic soda industry, caustic soda supply still exerts pressure, demand is weak, and there are inventory risks. PVC has short - term price increases but long - term supply - demand contradictions. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and take short - positions in the medium - term [32][35]. - In the urea industry, the short - term futures market is affected by rising Middle - East FOB prices and domestic factory export orders. The market is expected to be in high - level oscillations, with a bullish bias [38]. - In the styrene industry, short - term geopolitical factors drive prices up, but there is a possibility of supply - demand weakening. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - position opportunities in the medium - term [43]. - In the polyester industry, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip have different supply - demand situations. Strategies vary from short - term strength to long - term supply - demand balance adjustments [47]. - In the crude oil industry, geopolitical premiums have declined, and the market is likely to continue high - level oscillations in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see on the spot side and capture volatility - narrowing opportunities on the options side [52]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 closing prices all increased on June 18 compared to June 17, with increases ranging from 1.25% to 1.38% [21]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 1.83%, and social inventory decreased by 4.56%. PP enterprise inventory increased by 4.52%, and trader inventory increased by 5.31% [21]. - **Operation Rate**: PE device operation rate increased by 2.27%, and downstream weighted operation rate decreased by 1.00%. PP device operation rate increased by 2.1%, and powder operation rate decreased by 1.3% [21]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: MA2601 and MA2509 closing prices increased on June 18 compared to June 17, with increases of 1.83% and 2.53% respectively. Port prices increased significantly [30]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3.10%, port inventory decreased by 10.09%, and social inventory decreased by 7.52% [30]. - **Operation Rate**: Upstream domestic enterprise operation rate increased by 0.83%, and downstream external - procurement MTO device operation rate increased by 0.85% [30]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices**: PVC and caustic soda futures and spot prices had different changes on June 18 compared to June 17. Caustic soda export profit increased significantly, while PVC export profit decreased [32]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry operation rate decreased by 2.6%, and PVC total operation rate data was unavailable. PVC external - procurement calcium carbide method profit increased by 5.5% [33]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry operation rate increased by 2.0%, and PVC downstream product operation rates generally decreased [34][35]. - **Inventory**: Caustic soda had inventory differentiation, with East China de - stocking and Shandong stocking. PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 0.4%, and total social inventory decreased by 1.8% [35]. Urea Industry - **Prices**: Urea futures prices had different changes on June 18 compared to June 17. Spot prices in different regions also had slight fluctuations [38]. - **Supply**: Domestic urea daily output increased by 1.00%, and production factory operation rate increased by 1.00% [38]. - **Inventory**: Domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 3.49%, and port inventory remained unchanged [38]. Styrene Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: Prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, and CFR China pure benzene all increased on June 18 compared to June 17 [40]. - **Styrene Prices**: Styrene East China spot price and futures prices increased on June 18 compared to June 17 [41]. - **Operation Rate and Inventory**: Domestic pure benzene comprehensive operation rate increased by 2.9%, styrene operation rate increased by 2.1%. Port inventories of pure benzene and styrene decreased [43]. Polyester Industry - **Prices**: Prices of polyester products such as POY, FDY, DTY, and polyester chips increased on June 18 compared to June 17. PX, PTA, and MEG prices also had different changes [47]. - **Operation Rate**: Asian and Chinese PX operation rates, PTA operation rate, and MEG comprehensive operation rate had different changes [47]. - **Inventory**: MEG port inventory decreased, and PTA and MEG inventories had different trends [47]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices had different changes on June 19 compared to June 18. Product oil prices and cracking spreads also had fluctuations [52]. - **Inventory**: EIA data showed that last week's US crude oil inventory unexpectedly decreased, far exceeding market expectations [52]. - **Market Outlook**: Geopolitical premiums have declined, and the market is expected to continue high - level oscillations in the short - term [52].
日度策略参考-20250617
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 05:42
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]
银河期货原油期货早报-20250612
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 03:09
美国总统特朗普周三表示,美中已达成一项让脆弱的贸易休战回到正轨的协议,此前华盛 顿和北京官员就一项包括关税税率在内的框架达成了一致。框架还包括有关稀土和中国留 学生的内容。特朗普在其社交媒体平台上公布了伦敦两天会谈的一些首次披露的细节。用 美国商务部长卢特尼克的话来说,此次会谈为上月在日内瓦达成的一项旨在降低双边报复 性关税的协定"增添了实质内容"。 美国和伊拉克消息人士表示,美国正准备撤离驻伊拉克大使馆部分人员,并将允许中东各 军事基地的军人家属离开,因该地区安全风险加剧。消息人士并未具体说明是哪些安全风 险促使政府做出这一决定。白宫官员表示,美国总统特朗普已听取了相关汇报。相关报道 导致油价上涨逾 4%。 EIA 数据显示,截止 6 月 6 日当周,包括战略储备在内的美国原油库存总量 8.34 亿桶,比 前一周下降 341 万桶;美国商业原油库存量 4.32 亿桶,比前一周下降 364.4 万桶;美国汽 油库存总量 2.30 亿桶,比前一周增长 150.4 万桶;馏分油库存量为 1.09 亿桶,比前一周增 长 124.6 万桶。美国原油日均产量 1342.8 万桶,比前周日均产量增加 2 万桶,比去年同期 ...
安粮期货股指
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 02:02
宏观 股指 市场分析:当日沪深两市成交额 1.45 万亿元,较前日放量 10.57%。银行、创新药等防御性 板块领涨,而半导体、航天航空等高波动板块承压。上证 50 主力合约 IH2506 持仓量环比下 降 2.82%,短期多空分歧加剧。中证 1000 收盘价接近压力位 6226 左右,若突破需成交量配 合;沪深 300 收盘价接近支撑位 3514 左右,短期反弹动能不足。 参考观点:中证 1000 波动率较高,建议关注 6227 附近压力位突破情况;上证 50 建议结合 持仓量变化判断趋势持续性;沪深 300 波动率处于低位,但成交额占比稳定,可作为中长期 配置参考;中证 1000 与沪深 300 的波动率比值(1.56)接近 2024 年均值(1.62),可关注 均值回归机会。 原油 宏观与地缘:上周五美国非农数据超预期,削弱美联储降息紧迫性,同时中美第二轮谈判, 市场对经贸缓和有一定预期,原油价格或偏强震荡,关注 WTI 主力 65 美元/桶关键位置。 市场分析:基本面看,OPEC 大幅调降未来两年全球需求增速,美国贸易战升级,特朗普政 府政策多变,引发市场对全球需求担忧。库存方面,美原油库存虽然下滑, ...
宁证期货今日早评-20250610
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 06:48
今 日 早 评 温馨提示: 根据《上海期货交易所交易规则》等有关规定,现将铸造 铝合金期货合约上市挂牌基准价通知如下: AD2511、AD2512、AD2601、AD2602、AD2603、AD2604、 AD2605合约的挂牌基准价为18365元/吨。 重点品种: 【短评-原油】路透社调查发现,5月OPEC原油产量较4月增 加15万桶/日,达到2675万桶/日,但低于计划的增产幅度,在 OPEC+协议中,阿尔及利亚、伊拉克、科威特、沙特阿拉伯和阿 联酋这五个OPEC成员国计划在5月增产31万桶/日,但实际仅增 产18万桶/日;伊朗外交部发言人:下一轮与美国的核谈判预计 将于周日在阿曼举行。6月9日,伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃表 示,伊朗已将铀浓缩排除在谈判议题之外;中美经贸磋商机制 首次会议在英国伦敦开始举行。评:美伊谈判和俄乌谈判进展 情况,OPEC+增产量偏少,美国关税政策影响阶段性原油走势。 短期低库存对油价存在支撑。长期需持续跟踪OPEC+增产落实情 况。短期短线参与。 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel煤焦事业部调研全国30家独立焦化 厂吨焦盈利情况,全国平均吨焦盈利-19元/吨;山西准一级焦 平均盈利5元 ...
五矿期货能源化工日报-20250610
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 03:21
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, due to the unclear outcome of the US - Iran negotiation, although OPEC has shown clear production - increase data, considering the bottom - support effect of shale oil and the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation, the current risk - return ratio is not suitable for short - chasing, and short - term observation is recommended [1]. - For methanol, with sufficient domestic supply and a weak macro - environment, there may be a further decline. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities on rallies. For cross -品种 trading, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 09 - contract PP - 3MA spread on dips [3]. - For urea, with high supply and lukewarm demand, the price is expected to have no obvious trend. Given the low basis at the same period, there is no safety margin for long - trading, so short - term observation is recommended [5]. - For rubber, after an oversold rebound, the price is oscillating. Short - long or neutral strategies with short - term operations are recommended. Also, pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [11]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term, but beware of rebounds if the weak export expectation fails to materialize [13]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain oscillating in June as the short - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - boosted inventory reduction, and there is no new capacity - commissioning plan [16]. - For polypropylene, due to planned capacity expansion in June and a seasonal decline in demand, the price is expected to be bearish in June [17]. - For PX, the de - stocking is expected to slow down in June as the maintenance season ends, but it will re - enter the de - stocking cycle in the third quarter. The price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [19]. - For PTA, with supply still in the maintenance season and moderate inventory pressure in the polyester and chemical fiber sector, PTA will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. The price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [20]. - For ethylene glycol, the industrial fundamentals are still in the de - stocking stage, but the de - stocking of port inventory is expected to slow down. There is a risk of valuation correction as the maintenance season ends [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main - contract crude - oil futures rose $0.61, or 0.94%, to $65.38; Brent main - contract crude - oil futures rose $0.48, or 0.72%, to $67.13; INE main - contract crude - oil futures rose 8.20 yuan, or 1.76%, to 474.3 yuan [1]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude - oil arrival inventory decreased by 2.27 million barrels to 204.55 million barrels, a 1.10% week - on - week decline; gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 0.66 million barrels to 84.21 million barrels, a 0.78% decline; diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.81 million barrels to 96.16 million barrels, a 0.85% increase; total refined - oil commercial inventory increased by 0.15 million barrels to 180.37 million barrels, a 0.09% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On June 9, the 09 - contract rose 13 yuan/ton to 2277 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 23 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 58 [3]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply has bottomed out and rebounded as previously - maintained plants resume operation, and is at a high level in the same period. Enterprise profits have continuously declined from a high level. Demand has slightly improved as the MTO device at the port has returned to a high - operation level, and traditional demand has generally rebounded this week. The port inventory has increased slowly, and the price has shown strength. Inland supply has increased while demand has weakened, and the price has declined, leading to an expanding price difference between the port and the inland area [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On June 9, the 09 - contract fell 23 yuan/ton to 1697 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 70 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 83 [5]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply remains at a high level, and daily output continues to rise. Demand has decreased as the production of compound fertilizers for the summer season is ending, and the enterprise operation rate has rapidly declined. The pre - order volume of urea enterprises has continuously decreased. Under the situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand, enterprise inventory has accumulated to a high level in the same period, and the basis has widened [5]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU are oscillating and consolidating [8]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Bulls believe that the weather, rubber - forest situation, and relevant policies in Southeast Asia, especially in Thailand, may contribute to rubber production reduction. Bears believe that the macro - expectation has deteriorated, demand is flat and in a seasonal off - season, and high rubber prices will stimulate a large amount of new supply throughout the year, and the production - reduction amplitude may be lower than expected [9]. - **Industry Data**: As of June 5, 2025, the operation rate of full - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 63.45%, 1.33 percentage points lower than last week but 2.56 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The inventory of tire factories is consumed slowly. The operation rate of domestic semi - steel tire enterprises was 73.49%, 4.39 percentage points lower than last week and 6.75 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Overseas new - order performance is poor. As of June 1, 2025, China's natural - rubber social inventory was 1.28 million tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons or 2.1% from the previous period. China's dark - rubber social inventory was 763,000 tons, a 3.4% week - on - week decline; light - rubber social inventory was 517,000 tons, a 0.1% decline. As of June 9, 2025, the natural - rubber inventory in Qingdao was 484,200 (- 1,500) tons [10]. - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 13,600 (+ 50) yuan; STR20 was reported at 1,685 (+ 5) US dollars; STR20 mixed was 1,675 (+ 5) US dollars; Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 9,450 (- 100) yuan; North China cis - butadiene rubber was 11,400 (0) yuan [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 26 yuan to 4,816 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4,700 (0) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 116 (- 26) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 79 (- 4) yuan/ton [13]. - **Cost and Supply - Demand Situation**: The cost of calcium carbide has increased, and the overall operation rate of PVC has increased. The downstream operation rate has slightly increased. Factory inventory has increased, and social inventory has decreased. Fundamentally, enterprise profit pressure has improved, the maintenance season has ended, and future production is expected to increase. There are expectations of multiple device commissions. The domestic operation rate is still weak compared with previous years and is entering the off - season. Export orders have weakened, and there is an expectation of weakening due to Indian policies and anti - dumping and BIS certification. The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, and the valuation support has weakened [13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has risen. The main - contract closing price was 7,078 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7,150 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of 72 yuan/ton, strengthening by 3 yuan/ton [16]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The fire in Alberta, Canada, has offset the OPEC +'s planned production increase of 411,000 barrels in July. The spot price of polyethylene has risen, and the downward space for PE valuation is limited. The new - capacity addition in June is small, and the supply - side pressure may be relieved. The inventory at the upper and middle reaches has decreased from a high level, which supports the price. It is a seasonal off - season, and the demand for agricultural films has decreased marginally, with the overall operation rate oscillating downward [16]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has risen. The main - contract closing price was 6,932 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7,120 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 188 yuan/ton, weakening by 7 yuan/ton [17]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The fire in Alberta, Canada, has offset the OPEC +'s planned production increase of 411,000 barrels in July. Although the spot price has not changed, the decline is much smaller than that of PE. There is a planned capacity expansion of 2.2 million tons in June, which is the most concentrated month of the year. The downstream operation rate is expected to decline seasonally as the plastic - weaving orders have reached a phased peak [17]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 62 yuan to 6,494 yuan, and PX CFR fell 10 US dollars to 808 US dollars. The basis was 198 yuan (- 20), and the 9 - 1 spread was 138 yuan (- 42) [19]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The PX operation rate in China has increased to 87%, a 4.9% increase, and the Asian operation rate has increased to 75.1%, a 3.1% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants have restarted or adjusted their operation loads. The PTA operation rate is 81.3%, a 4.9% increase. In May, South Korea's PX exports to China were 303,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 87,000 tons. The inventory at the end of April was 4.51 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 170,000 tons. The PXN is 240 US dollars (- 18), and the naphtha crack spread is 72 US dollars (- 7) [19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 50 yuan to 4,602 yuan, and the East - China spot price fell 65 yuan/ton to 4,830 yuan. The basis was 208 yuan (- 17), and the 9 - 1 spread was 110 yuan (- 26) [20]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The PTA operation rate is 81.3%, a 4.9% increase. Some plants have restarted, postponed restart, or carried out maintenance. The downstream operation rate is 91.1%, a 0.6% decrease. Some downstream plants have adjusted their production. The terminal draw - texturing operation rate has decreased by 2% to 80%, and the loom operation rate has decreased by 1% to 68%. As of May 30, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.208 million tons, a decrease of 94,000 tons from the previous period. The PTA spot processing fee has decreased by 11 yuan to 440 yuan, and the futures processing fee has decreased by 9 yuan to 342 yuan [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 5 yuan to 4,256 yuan, and the East - China spot price fell 26 yuan to 4,382 yuan. The basis was 115 (- 8), and the 9 - 1 spread was 3 yuan (- 18) [21]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The ethylene - glycol operation rate is 59.9%, unchanged from the previous period. Some domestic and overseas plants have carried out maintenance or restarted. The downstream operation rate is 91.1%, a 0.6% decrease. Some downstream plants have adjusted their production. The terminal draw - texturing operation rate has decreased by 2% to 80%, and the loom operation rate has decreased by 1% to 68%. The import arrival forecast is 108,000 tons, and the average daily departure from the East - China port from June 6 - 8 was 930 tons, with an increase in outbound volume. The port inventory is 634,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons. The naphtha - based production profit is - 356 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit is - 461 yuan, and the coal - based production profit is 1,218 yuan. The cost of ethylene has remained unchanged at 780 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines has decreased to 450 yuan [21].
《能源化工》日报-20250609
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 06:20
原油产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月9日 宙 扬 Z0020680 | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品中 | 6月9日 | 6月6日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | Brent | 66.48 | 66.47 | 0.01 | 0.02% | | | WTI | 64.60 | 64.58 | 0.02 | 0.03% | 美元/桶 | | ਟ | 475.90 | 467.90 | 8.00 | 1.71% | 元/桶 | | Brent M1-M3 | 1.30 | 1.32 | -0.02 | -1.52% | 美元/桶 | | WTI M1-M3 | 1.83 | 1.85 | -0.02 | -1.08% | | | SC MI-M3 | 6.90 | 7.00 | -0.10 | -1.43% | 元/桶 | | Brent-WTI | 1.88 | 1.89 | -0.01 | -0.53% | | | EFS | 1.70 | 1.72 | -0.0 ...
五矿期货能源化工日报-20250606
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 02:55
能源化工日报 2025-06-06 2025/06/06 原油早评: 能源化工组 李 晶 首席分析师 从业资格号:F0283948 交易咨询号:Z0015498 0755-23375131 lijing@wkqh.cn 我们认为当前美伊谈判未见明确结果,且 OPEC 尚未体现出明确的增产数据,叠加页岩油的托 底效应,我们认为即使美伊谈判顺利,考虑当前的风险收益比并不适合追空,短期观望为主。 甲醇 2025/06/06 甲醇早评: 6 月 5 日 09 合约跌 11 元/吨,报 2259 元/吨,现货涨 8 元/吨,基差 +51。供应端随着前期检修装置回归开工开始见底回升,处于同期高位,企业利润高位持续回 落,预计短期供应仍将维持高位。需求端港口 MTO 装置开工回到高位,传统需求本周开工整体 有所回升,需求小幅好转,港口整体累库速度偏慢,价格表现偏强。内地供增需弱,价格走低, 港口与内地价差持续扩大。整体来看,后续国内供应依旧较为充裕且宏观环境偏弱,甲醇或有 进一步回落可能,单边建议关注逢高空配置为主。跨品种方面关注 09 合约 PP-3MA 价差的逢低 做多的机会。 尿素 2025/06/06 尿素早评: ...
五矿期货能源化工日报-20250605
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 01:20
能源化工日报 2025-06-05 2025/06/05 原油早评: 能源化工组 张正华 高级分析师 从业资格号:F270766 交易咨询号:Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 我们认为当前美伊谈判未见明确结果,且 OPEC 尚未体现出明确的增产数据,叠加页岩油的托 底效应,我们认为即使美伊谈判顺利,考虑当前的风险收益比并不适合追空,短期观望为主。 甲醇 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号:F03097315 交易咨询号:Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 2025/06/05 甲醇早评:内地价格走弱叠加煤炭有所企稳,企业利润大幅回落,后续随着前期 检修装置的回归,国内供应将再度回到高位,6 月国内进口将显著走高,后续供应压力依旧较 大。需求端港口 MTO 装置重启,传统需求继续走弱为主,随着甲醇下跌,下游利润整体持续改 善,后续来看,随着甲醇高估值的修复,现货下跌幅度或有所放缓,但后续预计到来,预计整 体供需格局依旧偏弱,价格暂无上行驱动,单边建议关注逢高空配置为主。跨品种方面关注 09 合约 PP-3MA 价差的逢低做多的 ...