2025 年 5 月 6 日 硅铁：黑色板块共振，硅铁偏弱震荡 锰硅：矿端信息扰动，锰硅偏弱震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2506 | 5590 | -18 | 134,883 | 121,753 | | 期货 | 硅铁2509 | 5630 | -34 | 29,585 | 108,313 | | | 锰硅2506 | 5688 | -12 | 59,086 | 40,368 | | | 锰硅2509 | 5752 | -6 | 209,287 | 415,119 | | | 项目 | | 价格 | 较前一交易日 | 单位 | | | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格:内蒙 | | 5550 | - | 元/吨 | | 现货 | 硅锰:FeMn65Si17 ...

铁合金早报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 | 5550 | 0 | 0 | 5850 | 主力合约 | 5608 | -40 | -58 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5550 | 0 | -50 | 5900 | 01合约 | 5708 | -52 | -76 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5550 | 0 | 0 | 5880 | 05合约 | 5588 | -32 | -116 | | | 陕西#72 | 5500 | 0 | 0 | 5830 | 09合约 | 5664 | -38 | -68 | | | 陕西#75 | 6000 | 0 | -50 | | 主力月基差 | 242 | 40 | 58 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏#7 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For silicon manganese, the industry fundamentals have not improved significantly, cost - end support is insufficient, and high inventory suppresses price increases. The market may continue to seek a bottom and is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract reference range of [5600, 6000] [5] - For silicon iron, the supply - demand contradiction is gradually alleviating, the industry's production reduction progress is accelerating, but the inventory level is still relatively high. The market may continue to seek a bottom and is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract reference range of [5400, 5850] [46] 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Silicon Manganese 3.1.1 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In April, production and operating rates declined significantly. It is expected that the total silicon manganese output in April will be around 810,000 tons. Although the production decline in each production area has slowed down compared with the previous period, the daily average output in Inner Mongolia is still at a relatively high level in the same period, and the operating rate in Yunnan is also at a high level in the same period [4][18] - Demand: In April, the substantial increase in hot metal production provided rigid support for the demand for silicon manganese. However, in steel tenders, the procurement prices of mainstream steel mills decreased, and the overall price - pressing sentiment was strong. Recently, news of production cuts has disturbed the market [4] 3.1.2 Manganese Ore Overview - Price: Manganese ore prices have not stopped falling, and the decline of oxide ore is obvious. Although the inquiry enthusiasm at ports has increased recently, the overall purchasing mentality is still cautious [4] - Inventory: Port inventory has continued to rise but is still at a historically low level. The arrival volume in April increased significantly, and the floating volume at sea surged. It is expected that large ships will arrive at ports in mid - to - late May, and the inventory may return to the normal range [4] 3.1.3 Cost and Profit - The entire industry is still in a loss state, and there are still expectations for production cuts. Special attention should be paid to the production reduction progress in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. Coke's second - round price increase was blocked, and the coke price is expected to be weak. The electricity prices in the north and south production areas have decreased to varying degrees, and there is an expectation of a decrease in Ningxia's electricity price [4] 3.1.4 Market Review - In April, the silicon manganese futures price continued to decline, and the spot price followed the decline. As of April 28, 2025, the closing price of the silicon manganese 509 contract was 5804 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of 6.66% compared with the beginning of the month; the price range of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5680 - 5900 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 220 yuan/ton [6] 3.2 Silicon Iron 3.2.1 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In April, the production and operating rates decreased significantly. It is expected that the national output in April will be 430,000 - 440,000 tons. Since the end of March, news of factory production cuts and shutdowns has been continuously reported, and production area shutdowns and overhauls have gradually increased since mid - April [45] - Demand: With the repair of steel mill profits, blast furnaces have been actively restarted, and hot metal production has increased more than expected. In April, steel tenders progressed slowly, and most steel mills' tender prices decreased to varying degrees compared with the previous round. Non - steel demand remained stable, and downstream pre - holiday restocking was mainly based on demand - based procurement. The cumulative silicon iron export volume from January to March decreased significantly year - on - year [45] 3.2.2 Cost and Profit - The semi - coke market has been stable recently. The price of lump coal in the raw material end has declined, weakening the cost support for semi - coke. The overall operating rate of semi - coke enterprises is low, and they have entered the regular maintenance season, with the overall supply continuing to shrink. The price of small materials in Shaanxi has not changed significantly this month. The electricity price in Inner Mongolia was reduced by 0.015 yuan in mid - April, and there is an expectation of a decrease in Ningxia's electricity price [45] 3.2.3 Market Review - In April, the silicon iron futures price continued to decline, and the spot price followed the decline. As of April 28, 2025, the closing price of the silicon iron 506 contract was 5648 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron 72 in Inner Mongolia was in the price range of 5550 - 5700 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 150 yuan/ton [49]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that silicon ferroalloy is experiencing low - level oscillations due to the resonance of the black sector, while manganese ferroalloy is also in a low - level oscillation state affected by information disturbances from the ore end [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: Silicon ferroalloy futures contracts 2506 and 2509 closed at 5608 and 5664 respectively, down 40 and 38 from the previous trading day. Manganese ferroalloy futures contracts 2506 and 2509 closed at 5700 and 5758 respectively, down 46 from the previous trading day [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5550 yuan/ton, and the price of silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5680 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore Mn44 block was 37.0 yuan/ton degree, and the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu was 620 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Data**: The spot - futures spread of silicon ferroalloy (spot - 06 futures) was - 58 yuan/ton, up 40; the spot - futures spread of manganese ferroalloy (spot - 09 futures) was - 78 yuan/ton, up 46. The near - far month spread of silicon ferroalloy 2506 - 2509 was - 56 yuan/ton, down 2; the near - far month spread of manganese ferroalloy 2506 - 2509 was - 58 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cross - variety spread of manganese ferroalloy 2506 - silicon ferroalloy 2506 was 92 yuan/ton, down 6; the cross - variety spread of manganese ferroalloy 2509 - silicon ferroalloy 2509 was 94 yuan/ton, down 8 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: On April 29, the price of 72 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton (down 50), and the price of 75 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 6000 - 6100 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of 6517 silicon manganese was in the range of 5600 - 5800 yuan/ton [1][3]. - **Production and Capacity**: In April, the operating rate of silicon ferroalloy enterprises in Inner Mongolia was 80.99%, up 0.82% from March, with an estimated output of 15.88 tons, up 0.52 tons from March. The operating rate of silicon ferroalloy enterprises in Gansu was 36.11%, down 12.46% from March, with an estimated output of 3.72 tons, down 1.71 tons from March. In April, 7 ferromanganese slag blast furnaces in Liaoning were in production, unchanged from the previous month; 4 in Ningxia, down 1 from the previous month; 7 in Gansu, unchanged from the previous month; and 4 in Inner Mongolia, unchanged from the previous month [1][3]. - **Manganese Ore Supply**: South32's Australian manganese ore is ready to resume shipments. The first shipment is expected to load at Groote Eylandt, indicating that normal production and export may resume soon. In May, the first batch of manganese ore arriving at the port will be mostly supplied to long - term strategic customers, with index - based pricing, and there is no plan to sell through the open market for now [3]. 3.3 Trend Strength The trend strength of silicon ferroalloy is 0, and the trend strength of manganese ferroalloy is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4].

Group 1: Silicon Iron Market Overview - In April, the silicon iron market showed a weak overall trend, primarily due to declining coal prices and weak demand [1] - Silicon iron prices experienced a fluctuating downward trend, heavily influenced by electricity prices, which are closely linked to coal and renewable energy generation [1] - The production capacity utilization rate for silicon iron was reported at 60.57% in March, an increase of 6.61% from February, with a total production of 502,740 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 12.26% and a year-on-year increase of 18.02% [1] Group 2: Future Outlook for Silicon Iron - In May, the silicon iron market is expected to continue being influenced by coal prices, with a forecast of fluctuating prices due to reduced production in April [2] - The summer peak season for coal and electricity may provide support for silicon iron prices [2] Group 3: Manganese Silicon Market Analysis - The manganese silicon supply-demand situation is relatively stable, with a noticeable production decline in April following a rebound in March [2] - Despite the decrease in production, manganese silicon inventory continues to rise, indicating weak demand and ongoing oversupply issues [2] - Manganese silicon prices are also affected by coal prices, but more significantly by manganese ore prices [2] Group 4: Manganese Ore Inventory and Market Conditions - As of April 18, manganese ore port inventory was at 3.727 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 28.8%, marking the lowest level since 2020, although there was a slight month-on-month increase [2][3] - Current manganese ore availability for manganese silicon plants is approximately one and a half months, with expectations of Australian ore resuming shipments in May [3] - The manganese silicon industry continues to face overcapacity, with new production capacity planned for the northern regions, which will increase market supply pressure [3] Group 5: Long-term Market Prospects for Manganese Silicon - Despite a rise in state reserves, manganese silicon warehouse receipts continued to increase in April, indicating ongoing weak price trends for May [3] - Long-term prospects for the manganese silicon market may improve in the fourth quarter as the supply-demand situation gradually stabilizes, potentially leading to a strong independent market [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US labor market shows signs of weakness, with the March JOLTS job openings hitting a six - month low, and the upcoming Q1 GDP initial value may disappoint. The policies of the Trump administration and the tariff war are negatively affecting the labor market [7]. - For the container shipping index (European line), the near - term is under pressure. It is recommended to hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread position lightly, and reduce positions for near - month single - side trading before the holiday [8][9]. - Industrial silicon has a weak fundamental pattern. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies and be cautious when holding positions before the holiday [10]. - For live pigs, the inventory accumulation drive is weakening, and a phased inventory reduction may start, with short - term reverse spread opportunities [11][12]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pre - reading Highlights from the Director - **US Labor Market**: The US March JOLTS job openings were 7.192 million, far lower than the expected 7.5 million. The data has been on a downward trend since 2022, and recent policies have further impacted the labor market. The upcoming Q1 GDP initial value may be disappointing [7]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The near - term is under pressure. In early May, the loading rate was lower than expected, and the market freight rate has dropped. The 10 - 12 reverse spread can be held through the holiday, and near - month single - side trading should reduce positions before the holiday [8][9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The fundamentals are weak. The industry inventory is high, supply is increasing while demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies and be cautious before the holiday [10]. - **Live Pigs**: The inventory accumulation drive is weakening. With the increase in temperature, a phased inventory reduction may start in May, and there are short - term reverse spread opportunities [11][12]. 3.2 Commodity Research Morning Report - **Precious Metals**: Gold shows risk preference recovery, and silver rebounds steadily. Gold has a trend strength of 0, and silver also has a trend strength of 0 [18][21]. - **Copper**: Inventory continues to decrease, supporting the price. The trend strength is 0 [23][25]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum fluctuates strongly, while alumina drops significantly. Both have a trend strength of 0 [26][28]. - **Zinc**: It has a strong current situation but weak expectations, and will trade sideways in the short term. The trend strength is 0 [29][30]. - **Lead**: Demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. The trend strength is - 1 [32][33]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The upside and downside space of nickel converges, and the price may trade in a narrow range. Stainless steel has a cost - feedback game on the disk. Both have a trend strength of 0 [35][38]. - **Tin**: It shows a slight recovery. The trend strength is 0 [39][42]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a weakly oscillating disk, and polysilicon has a slight increase in registered warehouse receipts. Both have a trend strength of - 1 [43][46]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Warehouse receipts continue to increase, and the disk is under pressure. The trend strength is 0 [47][50]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are volatile, and it trades in a wide range. The trend strength is 0 [51][52]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Demand expectations are poor, and prices fluctuate at a low level. Both have a trend strength of 0 [55][58]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: Silicon ferroalloy oscillates at a low level due to black - sector resonance, and manganese ferroalloy oscillates at a low level due to ore - end information disturbances. Both have a trend strength of 0 [59][62]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are disturbed by production - limit news and trade in a wide range. Both have a trend strength of 0 [63][65]. - **Steam Coal**: The rigid demand has limited impact, and it trades weakly with oscillations. The trend strength is 0 [66][68]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [69]. - **Para - Xylene, PTA, and MEG**: Para - xylene has a collapsing cost and expanding processing margin. PTA recommends a month - spread reverse spread, and MEG suggests a long - PTA short - MEG strategy [72][73].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the reports Group 2: Report Core Views - **Steel**: Last Friday, there was news of a 50 million - ton production cut in 2025. Steel prices strengthened on Friday night and continued the slightly stronger trend on Monday. Raw materials weakened and the disk profit expanded. The apparent demand has peaked and there is an expectation of weakening in the far - end demand. Inventory has fallen to a seasonal low while production remains high. If the demand declines month - on - month, the near - end prices are expected to catch up with the decline. Steel mills need to reduce production to match the demand. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate narrowly. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to the arbitrage operation of going long on steel and short on raw materials in the second - nearest month [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Affected by the production restriction news, iron ore prices will continue to be under pressure. The daily average pig iron output has increased significantly this week, and it is expected to peak. Whether it can remain at a high level depends on the end - demand. The supply of iron ore has a slight increase in global shipments and a significant decline in arrivals. The port inventory has increased. It is expected that iron ore prices will continue to be under pressure [4]. - **Coke**: The coke futures showed a downward - fluctuating trend. The second - round spot price increase of coking plants was blocked. Due to the concession of coking coal, the losses of coking enterprises have been repaired, and some have resumed production slightly. The supply has increased, and the demand has also increased with the increase in pig iron output. However, there is a possibility that pig iron output will peak. The inventory is at a medium - high level with some pressure. It is recommended to adopt the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures showed a downward - fluctuating trend. The spot market is generally stable but weak. The domestic coal mines continue to resume production, and the port clearance has declined. The demand from the coking industry has increased slightly. The total inventory has decreased slightly. There is still a large impact from imported coal, and the market is expected to decline. It is recommended to focus on arbitrage and adopt the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [7]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The silicon ferrosilicon futures fluctuated narrowly. After the production cut, the supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and the overall downward space is limited. The production has continued to decline, and the inventory has stopped increasing and started to decrease, but it remains at a medium - high level. The short - term supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated, but the factory inventory is high, and the price lacks the impetus to rebound. It is expected to fluctuate steadily [8]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese futures continued to decline. The production reduction has remained stable. The losses of manufacturers in Ningxia have deepened, and most manufacturers are still reducing production. The inventory has increased. The short - term supply - demand contradiction needs to be resolved, and the cost support from manganese ore is insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some steel products have changed, such as the spot price of rebar in the South China region decreased by 30 yuan/ton, while the 05 contract of rebar increased by 35 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 12 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 4.2 to 244.4 (1.8% increase), and the output of five major steel products increased by 3.1 to 875.8 (0.4% increase) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 50.4 to 1534.3 (- 3.2% decrease), and the rebar inventory decreased by 30.8 to 702.3 (- 4.2% decrease) [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building material trading volume decreased by 0.1 to 12.0 (- 0.7% decrease), and the apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 22.4 to 926.3 (- 2.4% decrease) [1]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt cost of some iron ore varieties has changed, such as the PB powder increased by 3.3 to 809.6 (0.4% increase) [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 200.2 to 2325.3 (- 7.9% decrease), and the global shipment volume increased by 17.8 to 2925.5 (0.6% increase) [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 4.2 to 244.4 (1.8% increase), and the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 18.4 to 327.9 (5.9% increase) [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports increased by 79.6 to 14261.0 (0.6% increase), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 20.1 to 9073.0 (0.2% increase) [4]. Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged at 1318, and the 05 contract of coke increased by 4 to 1566 (0.2% increase) [7]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.5 to 66.9 (2.3% increase) [7]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 4.2 to 244.4 (1.8% increase) [7]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 3.0 to 1014.8 (- 0.3% decrease), and the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 2.4 to 104.9 (- 2.2% decrease) [7]. - **Supply - Demand Gap**: The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 0.5 to - 4.0 (- 11.5% decrease) [7]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 1145, and the 05 contract of coking coal decreased by 9 to 881 (- 1.0% decrease) [7]. - **Supply**: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 4.7 to 878.2 (- 0.5% decrease) [7]. - **Demand**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.5 to 66.9 (2.3% increase) [7]. - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory decreased slightly, with the inventory of upstream mines increasing and the port inventory decreasing [7]. Silicon Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the silicon ferrosilicon main contract increased by 8 to 5648 (0.1% increase), and the spot price of silicon ferrosilicon 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 5550 [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in Inner Mongolia decreased by 16.2 to 5750.1 (- 0.3% decrease), and the production profit in Inner Mongolia increased by 10 to 620 (1.6% increase) [8]. - **Production**: The weekly output of silicon ferrosilicon decreased by 0.1 to 9.9 (- 1.4% decrease), and the operating rate of silicon ferrosilicon production enterprises decreased by 1.5 to 30.9 (- 4.6% decrease) [8]. - **Demand**: The weekly demand for silicon ferrosilicon (calculated by Steel Union) remained unchanged at 21 [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample silicon ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 1.1 to 8.4 (- 11.8% decrease) [8]. Silicon Manganese - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the silicon manganese main contract increased by 8 to 5804 (0.1% increase), and the spot price of silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia decreased by 20 to 5680 (- 0.4% decrease) [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in Inner Mongolia increased by 12 to 5681 (0.2% increase) [8]. - **Supply**: The manganese ore shipment volume increased by 0.7 to 78.8 (0.9% increase), and the arrival volume increased by 33.6 to 65.3 (106.3% increase) [8]. - **Demand**: The weekly demand for silicon manganese (calculated by Steel Union) increased by 0.0 to 127 (0.3% increase) [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises increased by 2.4 to 18.2 (15.4% increase) [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The static fundamentals of steel are good, with strong export demand for steel and billets. Despite high supply and good profits for steel mills, inventory depletion is smooth. With the approaching May Day holiday, downstream replenishment demand provides significant short - term support for steel prices. Rumors of 5000 - million - ton crude steel production cuts have strengthened the upward price expectation, but the impact is hard to predict. Production cuts may change the strength relationship between steel and raw materials, but may not drive a significant increase in steel prices [3]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore market maintains a situation of strong current reality and weak future expectations until mid - May. Although demand is strong, the market is trading on weak future expectations, especially the possible sharp decline in orders in mid - May [21]. - Coal and Coke: Affected by the news of crude steel production cuts, the profit of steel mills on the futures market has expanded rapidly. In the short term, the supply and demand of coal and coke are both strong, and prices have some support at the bottom. In the long term, if the production - cut policy is not implemented immediately, a new round of negative feedback may occur in the black market after the real demand weakens in late May [37]. - Ferroalloys: The fundamentals of ferroalloys continue the trend of pricing based on production cuts. Although the pressure of high supply has eased, the supply is still in excess compared to weak downstream demand, and high - inventory pressure remains [56]. - Soda Ash: Starting from May, expected maintenance will increase supply disturbances. The market is in a long - term oversupply situation with high inventory. Although the rigid demand has slightly improved, the photovoltaic industry may return to an oversupply situation. The decline in soda ash prices is driven by inventory accumulation and price - cutting actions of alkali plants, and supply disturbances may increase market volatility [71][72]. - Glass: Driven by weak demand and pessimistic expectations, along with high inventory pressure in the mid - and upstream, glass prices have dropped significantly. In the future, glass will continue to face oversupply pressure. Variables to consider include the postponement of ignition and new cold - repairs, as well as the improvement of demand. Short - term price fluctuations may increase [96]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3157, 3060, and 3129 respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3258, 3209, and 3237 respectively [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3374 yuan/ton, and the aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3280 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis and Spread**: On April 28, 2025, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 83 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 22 yuan/ton. The 01 roll - rebar spread was 101 yuan/ton [8][15]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 684, 763, and 710.5 respectively [22]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 763 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamentals**: As of April 25, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 244.35 million tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 14261 million tons [31]. Coal and Coke - **Futures Prices**: On April 25, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Meng 5) was 983 yuan/ton, and the coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port) was 1487 yuan/ton [38]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1300 yuan/ton, and the ex - warehouse price of Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke was 1350 yuan/ton [38]. - **Profit and Ratio**: On April 25, 2025, the on - disk coking profit was 108 yuan/ton, and the main ore - coke ratio was 0.453 [38]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On April 28, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 260 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5650 yuan/ton [59]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On April 28, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 254 yuan/ton, and the silicon manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5680 yuan/ton [59]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1319, 1364, and 1368 respectively [73]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1500 yuan/ton [74]. - **Market Situation**: Starting from May, expected maintenance will increase supply disturbances. The market is in long - term oversupply with high inventory, and demand has slightly improved [71]. Glass - **Futures Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1078, 1122, and 1172 respectively [97]. - **Spot Prices**: On April 28, 2025, the 05 - contract basis in Shahe was 158 yuan/ton [97]. - **Market Situation**: Driven by weak demand and high inventory, glass prices have dropped significantly. Future prices depend on ignition postponement, new cold - repairs, and demand improvement [96].

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 供应减量，双硅低位震荡 ——铁合金周报20250428 研究所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58630083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业证书 编 号 ：F03099603 投资咨询 编 号 ：Z0020978 需求：成材周产量微增 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 1-1 1-13 1-25 2-6 2-18 3-2 3-14 3-26 4-7 4-19 5-1 5-13 5-25 6-6 6-18 6-30 7-12 7-24 8-5 8-17 8-29 9-10 9-22 10-4 10-16 10-28 11-9 11-21 12-3 12-15 12-27 硅铁周消费量：万吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 700 750 800 850 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1-1 1-13 1-25 2-6 2-18 3-2 3-14 3-26 4-7 4-19 5-1 5-13 5-25 6-6 6-18 6-30 7-12 7-24 8-5 8-17 8-29 9-1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The terminal demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the prices of silicomanganese (SM) and ferrosilicon (SF) are oscillating downward. The fundamentals of both SM and SF offer limited support, and production cuts are needed to alleviate the supply - demand imbalance. In the short term, the prices of both are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the production reduction and shutdown situations in the main production areas [5][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - In April 2025, the prices of both SM and SF oscillated downward, with the decline of SF futures prices being greater than that of SM. The closing price of the SM main contract on April 25 was 5,796 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 4.51%; the closing price of the SF main contract was 5,640 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 5.56% [8][10]. 3.2 Spot Prices - The decline of spot prices in Ningxia region was relatively narrow. For SM, the monthly price decline in various regions ranged from 180 - 350 yuan/ton; for SF, the monthly price decline in different regions was between 150 - 250 yuan/ton [11][14]. 3.3 Basis - The basis of both SM and SF oscillated stronger. For example, from April 18 to 25, the weekly increase of SM01 basis was 104 yuan/ton, and that of SF05 basis was 58 yuan/ton [16][19]. 3.4 Spread - The 5 - 9 spread of SM decreased by 4 yuan/ton month - on - month, and that of SF decreased by 40 yuan/ton month - on - month. The spread between SF and SM (SF - SM) decreased by 58 yuan/ton month - on - month [24][27]. 3.5 Production Costs - The production cost of SM decreased across the board. For example, the cost in the northern region decreased by 298.7 yuan/ton month - on - month. The production cost of SF also decreased, with the cost in Ningxia decreasing by 132 yuan/ton month - on - month [30]. 3.6 Production Profits - The immediate production profit of SM increased month - on - month, while that of SF decreased month - on - month. For instance, the production profit of SM in the northern region increased by 53.67 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the production profit of SF in Gansu decreased by 219 yuan/ton month - on - month [31][32]. 3.7 Manganese Silicon (SM) 3.7.1 Supply - The weekly output of SM continued to decline, but the decline rate slowed down. As of April 25, the weekly output was 186,060 tons, with a daily average output of 26,580 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.35%. The operating rate of SM production enterprises also continued to decline [33][36]. 3.7.2 Demand - The weekly demand for SM increased slightly month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline was still significant. The demand on April 25 was 126,749 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.71%. The production of rebar increased year - on - year, but its proportion in the total output of the five major steel products oscillated weakly [41]. 3.7.3 Inventory - The inventory of sample SM enterprises increased month - on - month, and the total number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts exceeded 650,000 tons. As of April 25, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises was 181,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33,200 tons. The available days of SM inventory in steel mills decreased [51][54]. 3.7.4 Manganese Ore - The inventory of port manganese ore was at an absolute low level, but the shipping volume gradually increased. In April, the shipping volume increased by 1.18 million tons month - on - month. The price of manganese ore continued to decline, providing limited cost support [58][60]. 3.7.5 Options - The historical volatility of SM options gradually recovered from a low level [65]. 3.8 Ferrosilicon (SF) 3.8.1 Supply - The weekly output of SF oscillated downward. As of April 25, the weekly output was 98,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.70%. The operating rate of SF production enterprises also decreased [70][73]. 3.8.2 Demand - The weekly demand for SF increased slightly month - on - month. The demand on April 25 was 20,560.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.86%. The output of magnesium ingots increased significantly in March, and the current price continued to rise [82][86]. 3.8.3 Cost - The price of semi - coke small materials remained relatively stable this month, and the price of oxidized iron scale decreased by 50 yuan/ton month - on - month [87][90]. 3.8.4 Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample SF enterprises decreased month - on - month but remained at a medium level in the same period of history. The available days of SF inventory in steel mills decreased. As of April 25, the inventory of 60 sample enterprises was 83,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,200 tons [6][91]. 3.8.5 Options - The historical volatility of SF options recovered from a low level [98].