乌克兰国家石油天然气公司表示，已与阿塞拜疆国家石油公司签署首份协议，通过跨巴尔干管道进口天 然气。 ...

证券研究报告 海外策略周报：关注贸易协议谈判进程 证券分析师 魏 伟 投资咨询资格编号：S1060513060001、BOT313 陈 骁 投资咨询资格编号：S1060516070001、BWH863 郝博韬投资咨询资格编号：S1060521110001 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2025年7月28日 1 ※ 核心观点 2 • 海外方面，本周海外市场风险偏好抬升，权益资产多数上涨。美国经济维持韧性，贸易谈判推进，市场风险偏好提升。全 球主要股指多数收涨。其中，MSCI全球股指上涨1.43%，道指、标普500、纳指分别上涨1.26%、1.46%、1.02%。10年 期美债收益率小幅回落4bps，美元指数下跌0.80%，COMEX黄金、ICE布油同步下跌0.51%、2.35%。港股方面，国内政 策催化集中落地，恒生指数继续上涨。国内方面，"反内卷"政策改善市场盈利预期；雅鲁藏布江水电站开工、海南自贸 港封关时间确定，带动相关产业链走强，国际投资者对港股配置意愿增强。恒生指数上涨2.27%，原材料、能源等事件催 化相关行业涨幅最高。 • 海外宏观层面，美国劳动力市场仍有韧性，房地产市场价格仍旧坚挺。1）美国劳动力市 ...

Group 1 - Daikin Heavy Industries signed a preferred supplier agreement with a European energy development company for offshore wind power monopile foundations, with a total contract value of approximately €547 million, accounting for about 80% of the company's audited revenue for 2022 [1] - *ST Xuefa's actual controller Zhang Jin is currently unreachable, and the company is unable to determine the specific reason for his disappearance, although it states that this will not significantly impact daily operations [3] - OFILM announced that some directors and senior management plan to collectively increase their shareholding by no less than ¥10.2 million within six months, without a price prerequisite [4] Group 2 - Shengbang Co. received a bid notification from BYD, selecting the company as a parts supplier for a specific model, specifically for crankshaft rear oil seals [5] - Longma Information stated that its artificial intelligence technology and related products have not yet generated direct revenue, with ongoing uncertainty regarding the impact on business operations [6] - *ST Culture received a notice from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange regarding the potential termination of its stock listing due to negative net assets and an audit report that could not express an opinion [7] Group 3 - Huibo proposed to acquire 100% equity of Changsha Drainage Company, with the transaction price yet to be finalized, marking a shift to a dual business model in oil and gas extraction services and water environment [8] - Bank of China confirmed that its operations are normal and there are no undisclosed matters affecting stock trading prices, while also applying to issue a $40 billion medium-term note program [9] - Design Institute announced that its digital transformation is in a phase of construction, with AI technology still in exploratory stages and uncertain future impacts [10] Group 4 - ST Huatie's actual controller pledged to repay the company's debts in a short time, committing to mobilize resources to support the company's operations and management [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of collaboration between the Jinan Xicheng Party Branch and the Jinan Tianqiao District Fire Rescue Station to enhance fire safety through a党建共建 (Party Building Co-construction) activity [1][2] - The event included sharing valuable experiences in party organization construction, highlighting the integration of党建 (Party Building) into fire rescue responsibilities, and the role of party organizations in ensuring safety [1] - Firefighters conducted practical training sessions on the use of firefighting equipment, focusing on the operational guidelines for fire hydrants at gas stations and emergency response procedures for potential incidents [1] Group 2 - A consensus was reached to establish a long-term cooperation mechanism in fire safety promotion, emergency rescue collaboration, and regular training exercises to enhance safety management and emergency response capabilities [2] - Future initiatives will include joint educational activities, information sharing, and ongoing practical drills to improve safety awareness and collaborative emergency response efforts [2]

Core Viewpoint - The trading activity of the Chinese yuan on the Moscow Exchange has significantly increased in June, but the average daily trading volume remains below 100 billion rubles, indicating a recovery from a previous low rather than sustained growth [1][2]. Group 1: Trading Activity - In June, the total trading volume of "next-day delivery" yuan exceeded 1.58 trillion rubles, a 13% increase from May [2]. - The average daily trading volume also grew nearly 13% to 800 billion rubles, although it is still significantly lower than the levels seen in February and March, when daily trading volumes exceeded 1 trillion rubles [2]. - The increase in trading activity in June is attributed to higher oil prices at the end of the first quarter, which led to increased foreign exchange income for exporters [2]. Group 2: Currency Exchange Rate - By the end of June, the yuan's exchange rate was 1 yuan to 10.92 rubles, a slight increase of 2 kopecks from the beginning of the month [3]. - The exchange rate fluctuated within a narrow range of 10.8 to 11 rubles per yuan during June, indicating a stabilization in the market [3]. - Analysts expect that the yuan's supply from exporters may decrease in July due to falling oil prices in April and May, which could lead to reduced foreign exchange sales [3]. Group 3: Future Predictions - Experts predict that the ruble will gradually depreciate in the second half of the year, with the average exchange rate expected to reach approximately 1 yuan to 11.7 rubles and 1 dollar to 85 rubles by the fourth quarter [4]. - Factors contributing to the ruble's depreciation include seasonal import demand, increased foreign exchange spending for summer travel, and potential interest rate cuts by the Central Bank of Russia [4]. - Analysts believe that the yuan's exchange rate will rise in the second half of the year, while the ruble will experience moderate depreciation due to seasonal factors and monetary policy [4].

Group 1 - The core point of the article discusses the recent interest rate cut by the Russian central bank from 20% to 18%, with a forecast to further reduce it to 14% by the end of the year, highlighting the implications for savings and loans in the Russian economy [3][5][10] - The interest rate of 18% is significantly higher than in many other countries, making saving attractive but borrowing extremely costly, which could stifle economic activity [4][6][12] - The central bank's decision to cut rates is seen as a response to decreasing inflation, which has dropped from a peak of 12.8% to 4.3%, indicating a potential stabilization of the economy [6][8][9] Group 2 - The central bank's rate cut is described as a "medicine" for the economy, aimed at alleviating the financial burden on businesses and encouraging investment, as high rates previously restricted economic growth [7][10] - The article outlines three key factors that give the central bank confidence in lowering rates: reduced inflation, the need for economic recovery, and a stabilized currency exchange rate [8][9][12] - Despite the rate cuts, the article warns that the underlying issues in the Russian economy, such as technological isolation and labor shortages, remain unresolved, suggesting that the economic recovery may be slow and challenging [11][12][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Brent and WTI may still have a chance to challenge $80 per barrel in the third quarter, and SC may challenge 580 yuan per barrel. In the long - term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices. Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel this year, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel [5]. - In the short - term, the valuation is at a medium level and there is still a chance to rise. The strategy includes short - term bottom - fishing and long - term high - selling [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Overview - This week's view on crude oil is to hold long positions. In the third quarter, there may still be a chance to challenge $80. Supply shows that Russian crude oil supply is resilient, and non - Russian supply has significant changes. Demand is differentiated, with different trends in refineries and refined oil products in different regions [5]. 3.2 Macro - The long - end US Treasury yield fluctuates significantly, and the gold - oil ratio rebounds. Overseas inflation rises, and the service industry PMI rebounds. The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing recovers [11][16][17]. 3.3 Supply - OPEC + core member countries: Saudi Arabia leads the August OPEC + production increase plan. Iraq's Kirkuk crude oil plans to resume exports by the end of the year. The UAE reduces the allocation of Murban crude oil. Other countries also have various production and export situations [7]. - Non - OPEC +: The US shale oil production and drilling rig numbers decline. Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and other countries also have different supply changes. OPEC + is accelerating the exit from production cuts, and non - OPEC + supply is expected to increase in 2025 [8]. 3.4 Demand - The spot demand turns weak marginally. In different regions, China's new refining capacity will be released in the second half of the year. Asian and European refineries have different raw material preferences. The demand for refined oil products is polarized, with tight diesel supply and weak gasoline demand [9]. 3.5 Inventory - The US commercial inventory rebounds, and the inventory in the Cushing area stabilizes but is significantly lower than the historical average. The European crude oil inventory rebounds, while diesel and gasoline are destocking. The domestic refined oil profit is repaired [58][63][65]. 3.6 Price, Spread, and Position - The North American basis rebounds slightly, the monthly spread declines, SC is stronger than the outer market and the monthly spread strengthens, and the net long position stabilizes [68][70][75].

Core Viewpoint - China's energy strategy is crucial for national security, especially in the context of ongoing global geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and conflicts in the Middle East, which impact energy supply and security [1][3]. Group 1: Energy Production and Consumption - China is the world's largest producer and consumer of coal, accounting for nearly half of global coal production and consumption, approximately 4 billion tons, with coal making up about 54% of its primary energy consumption [3][4]. - As of April 2023, China is also the largest renewable energy country, with solar photovoltaic capacity of about 1 billion kilowatts, representing 40% of global capacity, and wind power capacity of 550 million kilowatts, accounting for 45% of the global total [4][6]. - China ranks as the seventh largest oil producer and the fourth largest natural gas producer globally, while being the largest importer of both oil and natural gas, with a projected oil import dependency of around 72% in 2024 [6][7]. Group 2: Energy Security Assessment - China's energy security can be described as sensitive but not fragile, with a self-sufficiency rate of approximately 85%, as coal does not require imports, and non-fossil energy sources are domestically produced [7][8]. - The implementation of the "Oil and Gas Increase Storage and Production Seven-Year Action Plan" has led to an increase in domestic oil production from 189 million tons in 2018 to 213 million tons in 2024, with a net increase of 4 million tons annually [8][9]. - Current global oil and gas markets are characterized by oversupply, benefiting China's import strategy, as major producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia are increasing their output [9][10]. Group 3: Global Energy Market Integration - China has established a diversified energy import strategy, integrating into the global energy market through various oil and gas cooperation projects across 35 countries, including significant pipelines and strategic partnerships [10][11]. - The development of energy corridors, such as the China-Kazakhstan oil pipeline and the China-Central Asia gas pipeline, has become essential for ensuring energy security and is a hallmark of the Belt and Road Initiative [11][12]. Group 4: Future Energy Transition - The transition to renewable energy is critical, with a focus on key minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel, which are essential for energy storage technologies, highlighting the need for domestic production capabilities to reduce import dependency [13][14]. - China's energy strategy emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balance between traditional fossil fuels and renewable energy, with coal's share expected to decrease while natural gas consumption is projected to rise until around 2040 [14][40].

Core Insights - The article discusses Russia's reliance on oil and gas exports amidst Western sanctions and highlights President Putin's realization that this dependency is unsustainable for the country's future [1][3][5]. Economic Structure - Putin acknowledges that relying solely on resource sales is not a viable long-term economic strategy, indicating a need for structural change in the economy [3][5]. - The article notes that since the onset of the Ukraine conflict, over 30,000 sanctions have been imposed on Russia, affecting key sectors such as energy, finance, technology, and transportation [3][6]. Technological Challenges - The article emphasizes that Russia's historical reliance on military and energy exports has left it vulnerable, especially as global energy demands shift towards renewable sources [6][8]. - It points out that Russia is lagging in technological advancements, particularly in fields like artificial intelligence and biotechnology, which are crucial for modern power dynamics [8][10]. Military and Economic Implications - The ongoing conflict has exposed Russia's military shortcomings, including a lack of advanced weaponry and technology, which has been exacerbated by the war [10][12]. - The article contrasts Russia's traditional heavy industry and energy-based military strategy with Ukraine's resilience, supported by Western technological aid [12][16]. Future Opportunities - Despite the challenges, there are opportunities for Russia to pivot towards technology and innovation, leveraging its educational foundation and scientific talent [12][14]. - Putin's call for redirecting resource revenues into high-tech sectors like semiconductors and aerospace indicates a potential shift in economic focus [14][16].

Core Viewpoint - The company has initiated a "Cool Delivery" activity to provide care and support to employees working in high-temperature conditions, demonstrating a commitment to employee welfare and safety. Group 1: Response and Action - The company promptly responded to the directive from the party committee, mobilizing the local branch to address employee needs and implement a cooling support plan efficiently [2] - The entire process from planning to delivery was seamless, ensuring that the care from the company reached employees in a timely manner [2] Group 2: Employee Care and Support - The local branch prioritized precise care by selecting refreshing items such as watermelons, green beans, and beverages to help employees cope with the heat [3] - Every expense was carefully considered to ensure that resources were allocated effectively to meet employee needs [3] Group 3: Coverage and Impact - The local branch ensured that every station and employee received the cooling supplies, regardless of location or workload, fostering a sense of appreciation among employees [4] - The smiles and gratitude expressed by employees highlighted the positive impact of the initiative on team morale and cohesion [4] Group 4: Safety and Commitment - Employees expressed that the organization's concern was a valuable gift during the heat, promising to convert this care into a strong motivation for maintaining safety and health [5] - The "Cool Delivery" initiative not only provided immediate relief but also reinforced the foundation for safe production practices within the company [5]