1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, the current situation is "weak reality, stable policies, and strong expectations". The recovery of domestic demand is slow, and the export's marginal support for growth cannot offset the insufficient domestic demand. The price remains low, and the credit repair mainly relies on the government and policy tools. The policy is in the observation and verification stage, and the improvement of physical work and demand is expected to be concentrated in the first quarter. Overall, the short - term domestic fundamentals have limited direct support for risk assets, and the market is waiting for further confirmation of policy effects and data [11]. - Overseas, the demand is weakening marginally, inflation is slowly falling, and policy uncertainty is rising. The US consumption is still resilient but with weakening internal momentum. Core inflation is cooling, but service - item inflation is sticky. The market's focus has shifted to the Fed's leadership change expectation, increasing policy uncertainty and asset - pricing differentiation. However, the overseas macro - environment is still conducive to the resilience of risk assets [11]. - In terms of asset allocation, it is recommended to over - allocate medium - cap style in domestic equities, specifically the CSI 500 stock index futures; keep a neutral position in national bonds and standard - allocate 2 - year national bond futures; standard - allocate precious metals such as gold and silver; over - allocate non - ferrous metals like copper and tin; and adopt a range - trading strategy for the black sector [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 29, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4784, with a daily increase of 0.79%, a weekly increase of 1.59%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 4%. The SSE 50 futures price was 3130.4, with a daily increase of 1.78%, a weekly increase of 3.05%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 3.48%. The CSI 500 futures price was 8517.6, with a daily decrease of 0.91%, a weekly decrease of 1.62%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 15.68%. The CSI 1000 futures price was 8329, with a daily decrease of 0.51%, a weekly decrease of 2.2%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 12.01% [2]. - **National Bond Futures**: The 2 - year national bond futures price was 102.394, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 0.02%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 0.06%. The 5 - year national bond futures price was 105.875, with a daily increase of 0.02%, no weekly change, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.11%. The 10 - year national bond futures price was 108.25, with a daily increase of 0.06%, a weekly increase of 0.05%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.36%. The 30 - year national bond futures price was 112.17, with a daily increase of 0.08%, a weekly decrease of 0.12%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.68% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 95.7725, with a daily decrease of 1.32%, a weekly decrease of 1.78%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 2.54%. The US dollar central parity rate was 6.9481, with a daily decrease of 64 pips, a weekly decrease of 151 pips, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 409 pips [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.5479%, with a daily decrease of 3.54 basis points, a weekly increase of 5.44 basis points, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 43.42 basis points. The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.8164%, with a daily decrease of 1.47 basis points, a weekly decrease of 1.34 basis points, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 3.09 basis points. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.24%, with a daily increase of 2 basis points [2]. 3.2 Overseas Commodity Fluctuations - **Energy**: On January 28, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil price was 63.5, with a daily increase of 1.78%, a weekly increase of 3.62%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 10.61%. ICE Brent crude oil price was 67.69, with a daily increase of 1.65%, a weekly increase of 3.44%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 11.13%. NYMEX natural gas price was 3.723, with a daily decrease of 2.54%, a weekly increase of 2.2%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.32%. ICE UK natural gas price was 90.36, with a daily decrease of 1.7%, a weekly decrease of 12.25%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 21.11% [5]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold price was 5411, with a daily increase of 4.47%, a weekly increase of 8.59%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 24.9%. COMEX silver price was 116.62, with a daily increase of 10.06%, a weekly increase of 12.94%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 64.3% [5]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper price was 13086.5, with a daily increase of 0.62%, a weekly decrease of 0.32%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 4.72%. LME aluminum price was 3257, with a daily increase of 1.56%, a weekly increase of 2.63%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 8.68%. LME zinc price was 3364, with a daily increase of 0.39%, a weekly increase of 2.91%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 7.61%. LME tin price was 25953, with a daily increase of 1.96%, a weekly decrease of 1.15%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 38.26% [5]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybeans price was 1074.75, with a daily increase of 0.7%, a weekly increase of 0.68%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 2.63%. CBOT soybean oil price was 54.35, with a daily decrease of 0.11%, a weekly increase of 0.78%, a monthly decrease of 0.67%, and a quarterly and annual increase of 11.95%. CBOT corn price was 430.75, with a daily increase of 1%, no weekly change, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 2.32%. CBOT wheat price was 535.25, with a daily increase of 2.29%, a weekly increase of 0.94%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 5.68%. ICE No. 2 cotton price was 63.64, with a daily decrease of 0.3%, a weekly decrease of 0.31%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 1.03% [5]. 3.3 Domestic Commodity Fluctuations - **Shipping**: On January 29, 2026, the freight rate of container shipping on the European route was 1349.09, with a daily increase of 3.21%, a weekly increase of 9.46%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 11.36% [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold price was 1250.65, with a daily increase of 5.29%, a weekly increase of 12.02%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 27.64%. Silver price was 30452.18, with a daily increase of 4.42%, a weekly increase of 22.06%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 78.31% [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil price was 474.41, with a daily increase of 2.57%, a weekly increase of 6.89%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 9.59%. Fuel oil price was 2802.96, with a daily increase of 2.94%, a weekly increase of 7.01%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 14.38%. Low - sulfur fuel oil price was 3316.32, with a daily increase of 2.6%, a weekly increase of 6.48%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 13.76%. Asphalt price was 3472.58, with a daily increase of 2.04%, a weekly increase of 7.28%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 14.39% [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Stainless steel price was 14641.24, with a daily increase of 0.91%, a weekly decrease of 0.54%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 10.8%. Aluminum price was 17208.52, with a daily increase of 1.13%, a weekly decrease of 0.85%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 0.85% [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel price was 3165.04, with a daily increase of 0.67%, a weekly increase of 0.57%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 1.4%. Iron ore price was 796.29, with a daily increase of 1.94%, a weekly increase of 0.36%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.9%. Coke price had the first round of price increase, and the market sentiment was positive. Coking coal price was weak and stable in the spot market, and the futures price was strong [8]. - **Agricultural Products**: Soybean meal price was 2848.88, with a daily increase of 0.5%, a weekly increase of 1.35%. Soybean oil price was 8366.29, with a daily increase of 0.65%, a weekly increase of 3.49%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 6.4%. Palm oil price was 9347.99, with a daily increase of 0.97%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 9.08% [8]. 3.4 Short - term Judgment of Each Sector - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, with index opportunities being better than individual stocks. Stock index options are expected to be volatile, with intraday style switching and increased option trading volume. National bond futures are expected to be volatile, with the short - end of the bond market showing a strong trend [12]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner. Gold is driven by the smooth expectation of liquidity easing and the resurgence of geopolitical conflicts. Silver is supported by the tight spot structure and is sensitive to liquidity and the cyclical drive [12]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping on the European route is expected to be volatile, affected by geopolitical emotions and the downward pressure of off - season freight rates [12]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash are all expected to be volatile. Steel is supported by cost and the futures price is rising from a low level. Iron ore has a slight decrease in molten iron production and an accelerated inventory build - up in the downstream [12]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector**: Copper, aluminum, nickel, stainless steel, and tin are expected to rise in a volatile manner. Copper is rising due to the significant decline of the US dollar index. Aluminum is rising due to optimistic capital sentiment. Nickel is rising due to the game between policy expectations and weak reality [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals Sector**: Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, ethylene glycol, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle chips, propylene, PP, plastic, styrene, PVC, and caustic soda are all expected to be volatile. Crude oil is affected by supply pressure and geopolitical factors. LPG is affected by the weakening chemical demand and the risk from Iran [14]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Oils, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, and cotton are expected to rise in a volatile manner. Oils are continuing their upward trend. Natural rubber has broken through the previous high and is continuing to rise. Protein meal, corn/starch, and sugar are expected to be volatile. Protein meal is pushed up by short - covering, and corn/starch and sugar are affected by various factors such as demand, macro - environment, and production [14].

智通财经APP获悉，黄金股跌幅居前，截至发稿，赤峰黄金(06693)跌8.24%，报42.76港元；紫金黄金国 际(02259)跌5.96%，报230.2港元；山东黄金(01787)跌4.36%，报49.4港元；紫金矿业(02899)跌3.51%， 报44.52港元。 值得注意的是，多家上市公司近期发布风险提示。赤峰黄金在公告中表示，近期黄金产品市场价格累计 涨幅较大，预计将对公司经营业绩产生一定影响，同时提醒投资者公司股价处于历史高位，且近期换手 率较高。四川黄金表示，公司金精矿产品的价格受黄金价格波动影响较大，若未来黄金价格大幅波动， 将给经营业绩带来较大影响。中国黄金表示，股价上涨"已显著偏离指数"，并明确表示交易存在"市场 情绪过热情形，可能存在短期涨幅较大后的下跌风险"。 消息面上，国际黄金和白银价格29日上演"过山车"行情。因获利回吐盘遏制上涨动能，金价盘中一度暴 跌5.7%，创下去年10月21日以来最大盘中跌幅，随后收复部分失地。现货黄金收跌0.69%，报5377.4美 元/盎司。现货白银跌幅一度高达8.4%，最终收跌0.64%，报115.87美元/盎司。 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期：2026/1/30 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.32%报 5410.80 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 1.98%报 115.78 美元/盎司。美联储政策分歧、美国政府停摆 风险及伊朗军事演习加剧市场避险情绪，叠加特朗普降息呼吁与新任主席宽 ...

消息面上，现货黄金在周四美盘末转涨，收复逾300美元的历史最大单日跌幅，最终收报5370.87美元/ 盎司，收跌0.85%。现货黄金在整个周四交易时段中，于亚盘初创下了5596.7美元的历史新高，并在美 盘中跌至5105美元，使单日振幅扩大至近500美元。 责任编辑：郝欣煜 | 代码 | 名称 | | | 涨跌幅 ^ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 06693 | 赤峰黄金 | (0) | 42.760 | -8.24% | | 02259 | 紫金黄金国际 | | 230.200 | -5.96% | | 01787 | 山东黄金 | | 49.400 | -4.36% | | 01815 | 珠峰黄金 | | 1.900 | -3.55% | | 02899 | 三、二十六年 | | 44.520 | -3.51% | | 03330 | 灵宝黄金 | | 24.400 | -3.48% | | 01818 | 招金矿业 | | 38.860 | -3.33% | | 00340 | 童关黄金 | | 3.580 | -2.98% | | 00815 | 中国白银集 ...

Group 1: Industry Developments - China plans to develop more "Space+" future industries, focusing on commercial aerospace and related applications, with initiatives including space resource development and space tourism [1] - The State Council issued a plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, targeting key areas such as transportation, home services, and inbound consumption [3][4] Group 2: Company News - Guizhou Moutai denied rumors of participating in SpaceX's Series A financing, with its stock closing at 1437.72 CNY per share, up 8.61%, and a market cap exceeding 1.8 trillion CNY [2] - Jiangbolong expects a net profit of 1.25 billion to 1.55 billion CNY for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 150.66% to 210.82% due to rising storage prices driven by AI server demand [2] - BlueFocus anticipates a net profit of 180 million to 220 million CNY for 2025, recovering from a loss of 290 million CNY in the previous year, supported by growth in overseas business [3] - Sichuan Gold forecasts a net profit of 420 million to 480 million CNY for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 69.23% to 93.4%, attributed to increased sales of gold concentrate and rising gold prices [7] - Green Harmony expects a net profit of 115 million to 130 million CNY for 2025, reflecting a growth of 104.74% to 131.45%, driven by the recovery in the industrial robot market and expansion in overseas markets [8] - Shengyi Technology predicts a net profit of 3.25 billion to 3.45 billion CNY for 2025, with an increase of 87% to 98% due to rising sales of copper-clad laminates [9] - China Shipbuilding anticipates a net profit of 7 billion to 8.4 billion CNY for 2025, representing a growth of approximately 65.89% to 99.07%, driven by improved operational efficiency and high-value ship deliveries [10] - Century Huatong expects a net profit of 5.55 billion to 6.98 billion CNY for 2025, a significant increase of 357% to 475%, supported by continuous revenue growth and successful overseas expansion [11]

1月29日，晓程科技涨19.52%，成交额76.19亿元。两融数据显示，当日晓程科技获融资买入额6.58亿 元，融资偿还5.95亿元，融资净买入6248.76万元。截至1月29日，晓程科技融资融券余额合计9.88亿 元。 融资方面，晓程科技当日融资买入6.58亿元。当前融资余额9.87亿元，占流通市值的4.27%，融资余额 超过近一年90%分位水平，处于高位。 分红方面，晓程科技A股上市后累计派现9973.60万元。近三年，累计派现0.00元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，晓程科技十大流通股东中，黄金股ETF（517520）位居第二大流 通股东，持股449.93万股，相比上期增加202.68万股。前海开源金银珠宝混合A（001302）位居第四大 流通股东，持股409.78万股，为新进股东。华夏中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF（159562）位居第九大流 通股东，持股90.67万股，为新进股东。博时主题行业混合（160505）、广发策略优选混合（270006） 退出十大流通股东之列。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构 ...

2026年01月30日 星期五 商品期货早班车 期货研究 市场表现：昨日锡价大幅冲高回落。 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 市场表现：周四贵金属夜盘大幅震荡。 金 属 基本面：微软 AI 支出引爆忧虑；美参院关键投票未能推进拨款法案，特朗普称接近达成协议避免政府关门； 世界黄金协会：全球黄金需求首破 5000 吨，散户和机构成购金主力。。国内黄金 ETF 大幅流入 5 吨，COMEX 黄金库存为 1115.8 吨，-2 吨；上期所黄金库存为 103.0 吨，维持不变，SPDR 黄金 ETF 持仓为 1086.5 吨， 维持不变；COMEX 白银库存为 12803 吨，-107.7 吨；上期所白银库存为 508 吨，-35.9 吨；iShares 白银 ETF 持仓为 15636 吨，-211 吨；金交所白银上周库存 504.5 吨，-1 吨；伦敦 12 月末白银库存从 27183 吨增 至 27814 吨；印度 11 月白银进口约 750 吨左右，10 月进口修正为 1898 吨。 交易策略：特朗普政策多变引发资金抛售美债，金价稳步上行，建议做多；白银投机情绪浓烈，伦敦地区库 存紧张情况逐步缓 ...

1月29日，世界黄金协会发布的2025年全年《全球黄金需求趋势报告》（简称《报告》）显示，2025年 全球黄金总需求量为5002吨，创历史新高。持续的地缘政治和经济不确定性推动了黄金投资需求的大幅 攀升，令全年黄金需求总金额达5550亿美元。 《报告》认为，2025年全球黄金投资需求增至2175吨的里程碑水平，成为推动黄金总需求刷新历史纪录 的主要驱动力。全球范围内，寻求避险和资产多元化的投资者大量涌入黄金ETF，使其持仓量全年净增 801吨。同时，实物黄金投资需求也保持强劲，全球金条和金币需求达1374吨，按价值计为1540亿美 元，其中中国和印度市场表现突出，分别实现同比增长28%和17%，合计占该板块需求的50%以上。 世界黄金协会资深市场分析师Louise Street表示，2025年见证了全球黄金需求的激增和金价的大幅飙 升。持续的经济和地缘政治风险已成为"新常态"，消费者和投资者纷纷买入并持有黄金。黄金投资需求 成为全年焦点，投资者通过各种渠道配置黄金，而其他细分领域也对全球黄金需求发挥了支撑作用。美 元金价较上年同比大涨67%，但金饰需求仅下降18%，说明消费者在高金价环境下仍愿意购入金饰产 品 ...

在经历连续暴涨之后，黄金、白银在深夜暴跌。 据新华社消息，伦敦现货金银价格29日双双大幅下跌，现货黄金价格失守每盎司5200美元关口，现货白银价格失守每盎司110美元关口。 Wind数据显示，伦敦现货金银价格在美股交易时段短时呈现V形走势，大幅下挫后快速回升。截至北京时间1月30日5:56，伦敦金现货价格下跌0.66%，报 5382.127美元/盎司；COMEX黄金期货价格上涨1.60%，报5425.5美元/盎司。 伦敦银现货价格下跌0.79%，报115.683美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货价格上涨2.28%，报116.120美元/盎司。 此前，国际金价持续上涨，引发市场各方关注。自1月26日，现货黄金价格突破每盎司5000美元的重要整数关口后，国际金价在震荡中继续上涨，连续突 破多个重要关口，至29日突破每盎司5500美元，并一度逼近5600美元。自今年初以来，国际金价已累计上涨28%左右。 业内分析指出，来自地缘政治紧张局势加剧和由此导致的市场避险情绪快速升温。多重风险因素叠加，共同推动了市场对黄金的强烈避险需求，但切勿盲 目追涨杀跌。 金银短线跳水源于投资者获利了结 据智通财经报道，分析认为，金银的短线 ...

Focus Events - President Trump announced he will reveal the nomination for the next Federal Reserve Chair next week, criticizing current Chair Powell for not lowering interest rates [1] Oil Market - WTI crude oil prices surged by 5% to $66.3 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 4.25% to $70.23 per barrel [2][4] Company Updates - Guizhou Moutai's stock price increased by 8.61%, with investor Duan Yongping stating he did not purchase shares on that day but had exchanged some shares of China Shenhua for Moutai earlier [3] - Sichuan Gold expects a net profit of 420 million to 480 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 69.23% to 93.40% due to higher sales volume and rising gold prices [16] - Hanwei Technology forecasts a net profit of 125 million to 175 million yuan for 2025, indicating a growth of 63.01% to 128.22% [17] - Transsion Holdings anticipates a revenue of approximately 65.568 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of about 4.58%, with a net profit drop of 54.11% due to rising supply chain costs [17] - Jiangfeng Electronics plans to acquire control of Kaide Quartz for cash, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock [19] - Aote Xun expects a net loss of 63.6 million to 72.1 million yuan for 2025, with potential delisting risks due to negative financial indicators [20] - Mu Xi Co. plans to use up to 200 million yuan of raised funds to provide loans to its wholly-owned subsidiary for a new GPU project [21] Industry Dynamics - The State Council issued a plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, focusing on various sectors including transportation and online services [9] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting to address the "anti-involution" issue in the photovoltaic industry, emphasizing the need for coordinated governance and market regulation [12] - China aims to expand its "space+" future industries, focusing on commercial space applications and infrastructure development [11] - New regulations were issued to support wind power projects, encouraging development in less ecologically sensitive areas [14]