Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "stronger than the market" for the defense and military industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report expresses a bullish outlook on army equipment, driven by the recent escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict and the anticipated strong recovery in demand for the military industry by 2025 [42][11] - The military sector is expected to benefit from multiple catalysts, including the "14th Five-Year Plan" initiatives, the centenary of the military, domestic substitution, and rapid development of military trade, leading to significant growth in both domestic and foreign demand [42][11] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The military industry index rose by 1.03% from June 9 to June 13, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.25%, resulting in an excess return of 1.29 percentage points [14] - Since the beginning of 2025, the military index has increased by 3.36%, while the CSI 300 index has decreased by 1.80%, leading to an excess return of 5.16 percentage points [16] Valuation and Funding - As of June 13, the military industry index has a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 66.71, ranking in the 91.76 percentile, indicating a high configuration value [42][33] - Passive fund inflows into military ETFs increased slightly, with a net inflow of 830 million yuan during the week, although this was a decrease of 689 million yuan from the previous week [27][32] Key Investment Themes - The report recommends focusing on three main lines of investment: domestic trade, foreign trade, and self-sufficiency [42] - Suggested companies for domestic trade include Tianqin Equipment, Baiao Intelligent, and Gaode Infrared [42] - For foreign trade, companies like Guangdong Hongda and Aerospace Rainbow are highlighted [44] - In the self-sufficiency category, companies such as Aerospace Technology and Tunan Co. are recommended [44]

Group 1: Air Conditioning Market Dynamics - The air conditioning market is experiencing a fierce price war, with 1.5 HP energy-efficient products priced as low as 1200 yuan, leading to an 18% year-on-year decline in average prices and inventory nearing 50 million units, indicating a combination of weak demand and overcapacity [1] - Despite government support for aluminum use in home appliances, the adoption is slow due to limitations in material performance, lack of standards, and consumer trust issues [1] - Companies like Gree and Changhong continue to favor copper materials, enhancing performance and emphasizing high-quality branding through extended warranty promises [1] - Complaints in the air conditioning sector surged by 22% in the first half of 2025, with over 40% related to issues like "energy efficiency misrepresentation" and "shortened lifespan," highlighting consumer distrust in new material products [1] - Manufacturers focusing on copper performance and quality, such as Gree and Changhong, are suitable for conservative investors to monitor their profitability and brand premium maintenance [1] Group 2: Green Hydrogen Industry - Green hydrogen is a strategic emerging industry under the "dual carbon goals," serving multiple functions such as clean energy, energy storage, and chemical raw materials, and is crucial for industrial decarbonization [1] - By the end of 2024, over 560 hydrogen-related policies will have been issued nationwide, with hydrogen energy being prioritized by the central government and 22 provincial governments; the "Energy Law" has granted hydrogen energy legal status for the first time [1] - The green hydrogen sector is transitioning from "technology validation" to "commercial scale," characterized by its immature state but significant potential, representing a long-term structural opportunity [1] - Focus should be on low electricity cost regions (e.g., the western regions) and companies with self-generation capabilities; there is substantial room for domestic substitution in electrolyzer technology, presenting opportunities for equipment manufacturers [1] Group 3: Oil and Gas Market Response to Geopolitical Tensions - The recent escalation in the Middle East, particularly Israel's military actions against Iran, has heightened concerns over potential disruptions in oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to increased oil price expectations [2] - Although Iran's oil supply accounts for only 3-4% of global supply, its strategic location means that any transport disruptions could push oil prices above $90 [2] - The current global oil demand season, combined with a dovish outlook from the Federal Reserve and increased global inventory replenishment needs, supports upward pressure on oil prices [2] - Oil and gas ETFs, such as the S&P Oil & Gas ETF, have shown significant strength, presenting short to medium-term investment opportunities, particularly for companies with upstream oil fields or resource reserves [2] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are likely to maintain high oil prices, with Brent crude recently breaking through key resistance levels [3] Group 4: Silver Market Trends - Silver prices have surged significantly, primarily driven by the "gold-silver ratio repair" logic, with the ratio exceeding 100 in April, indicating silver was severely undervalued [4] - The recent rise in silver prices is supported by a substantial increase in gold prices, market sentiment spillover, technical breakthroughs, and ETF accumulation, resulting in over a 50% increase from low to high [4] - Although the gold-silver ratio has decreased, it remains above the long-term average, suggesting further upside potential for silver, making it an attractive option for flexible allocation within precious metals [4] - Complex geopolitical situations and renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China are amplifying market demand for safe-haven assets [4] - Despite the bullish outlook, silver is more susceptible to economic cycles; a potential global economic slowdown could exert downward pressure on silver prices [4] - The silver market is expected to exhibit characteristics of "strong support, high volatility," driven by safe-haven demand and valuation recovery, suggesting a strategy of trend-following and gradual accumulation rather than aggressive buying [4]

今天是热闹非凡的一天，一方面美国正举行陆军建军 250周年阅兵同时懂王79岁生日，另一方 面全美多地爆发反对特朗普政府移民、卫生、教育等方面政策的约2000场示威游行活动，活动 名为"不要国王"。川普的生日盛典和民众的No king怒吼交织一起，画面实在不要太美丽。 而更受关注的是中东伊以军事冲突继续升级，当地时间 6月13日凌晨，以色列对伊朗发动代号 为"狮子的力量"的大规模空袭。据伊朗方面消息，以色列此次袭击造成伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队总司 令萨拉米、武装部队总参谋长巴盖里死亡，此外还有10余名伊朗核科学家遇难。 当日晚间，伊朗发动 "真实诺言-3"行动对以色列进行报复，向以色列境内发射了200余枚导 弹，以色列方面表示，大部分导弹被拦截，但仍有部分导弹造成了人员伤亡和基础设施损毁。 随着双方冲突的爆发，地缘政治风险急剧升温，国际油价大幅跳涨，布伦特原油期货价格盘中一 度涨超 10%，突破92美元/桶，为去年10月以来新高；避险资产黄金价格也大幅拉升，纽约商 品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的8月黄金期价13日比前一交易日上涨46.6美元，收于每盎司 3429.9美元，涨幅为1.38%。 所以若拼硬实力，以色列更 ...

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 金融工程 证券研究报告 2025 年 06 月 15 日 量化择时周报：仍处震荡上沿，维持中性仓位 仍处震荡上沿，维持中性仓位 上周周报(20250608)认为：短期市场宏观不确定性增加和指数在震荡格局 上沿位置的压制下，风险偏好较难快速提升，继续维持中性仓位。最终 wind 全 A 全周表现先扬后抑，微跌 0.27%。市值维度上，上周代表小市值股票 的中证 2000 下跌 0.75%，中盘股中证 500 下跌 0.38%，沪深 300 下跌 0.25%， 上证 50 下跌 0.46%;上周中信一级行业中，表现较强行业包括有色金属、石 油石化，有色金属上涨 3.95%，食品饮料、计算机表现较弱，食品饮料下跌 4.42%。上周成交活跃度上，石油石化和非银金融资金流入明显。 市场处于震荡格局，核心观测是市场风险偏好的变化。宏观方面，中东战 争对全球的资本市场的风险偏好带来压力；同时本周即将迎来美联储议息 的关键窗口期，市场的风险偏好也会承压；之前预告的陆家嘴论坛的利好 也在本周迎来明牌，或将利好兑现；技术指标上，wind 全 A 指数虽然上周 小幅回落，但仍位于震荡格局的上沿，如果没有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by the Shanghai Composite Index in breaking through the 3400-point barrier, highlighting the current high valuation levels and the lack of supportive policies or improved earnings expectations as key obstacles [4][10]. Valuation Analysis - The static PE ratio of the Wind All A (excluding financials) is currently at 31.51 times, which is at the 49th percentile since 2000, the 54th percentile over the past decade, and the 100th percentile over the last three years, indicating that the market is nearing its high tolerance for valuations [6][10]. - Compared to global equity markets, the valuation of Wind All A (excluding financials) is relatively high, with the Nasdaq at 44 times, S&P 500 (excluding financials) at approximately 30 times, and the Hang Seng Tech Index at 21 times, suggesting that A-shares lack a solid foundation to maintain levels above 3400 points [9][10]. Market Conditions - The article emphasizes that without new incremental policy support or significant improvements in earnings expectations, the market is unlikely to sustain levels above 3400 points. Current trade environment pressures limit the feasibility of large-scale policy stimulus [10]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown a continuous decline, with a year-on-year drop of 3.3% in May, indicating that A-share earnings are unlikely to improve in the near term [10]. Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience volatility, with a higher probability of downward movement. The focus will likely shift towards sectors with more predictable earnings, suggesting a strategy of seeking certainty and avoiding underperforming stocks [10][11]. - In the absence of significant changes in policies or PPI, a notable rise in the Shanghai Composite Index above 3400 points would be seen as a signal to reduce positions rather than increase them [11]. Structural Opportunities - The article outlines different market styles based on historical data since 2015, indicating that stable styles (e.g., utilities, consumer staples) are favored during external risks or tightening policies, while cyclical styles (e.g., materials, industrials) thrive in improving economic conditions [13][14]. - Growth styles (e.g., technology, emerging industries) depend on upward industry trends, policy support, and liquidity, while consumer styles are closely tied to economic recovery and consumer confidence [15][16]. - Currently, the market environment is characterized by weak earnings and low capital inflows, which is unfavorable for cyclical, growth, and consumer styles, but relatively beneficial for stable and financial styles [19]. Investment Recommendations - The article suggests a balanced allocation strategy, focusing on sectors with potential marginal improvements such as petrochemicals, brokerages, non-ferrous metals, military, and electric power, as well as industries aligned with policy and industry trends like AI applications, gaming, communication, and semiconductors [19].

我问你一个问题，你最近还敢看股市吗？ 不是我说，这两天打开行情软件，感觉不是在看数据，是在看全世界的心病。红的没几个，绿的躺一片。我盯着上证指数看了五分钟，突然怀疑自己是不是 点错了页面，以为进了什么灾难片剧本。可惜不是片，是现实。 世界是真乱了。伊朗跟以色列正式开火，导弹互相招呼着炸，CNN、BBC、半岛电视台直播的像世界杯似的，全球盯着这对中东死对头开干。你以为只有 这点事？俄乌那边还在打，虽然热度不如去年，但炮声一直没断过。美国内部也不安生，黑人白人、保守派自由派、川粉拜粉快在街头打出三国演义了。纽 约地铁又出事，芝加哥枪击、加州示威……拜登还没开口，股市先开始摇。 那我们A股呢？是不是也完蛋了？讲真，我不觉得。你去翻下指数，沪指从年初3000多点起步，一路磨到现在3000上方，涨得慢得像老牛喝水，但还真是稳 稳的慢牛格局。即使这两周有点调整，我看也不是什么天要塌的事。 我查了一下，从2024年1月到6月初，上证指数涨幅接近6.8%。虽然不亮眼，但考虑到外围环境这破局面，能稳住已经是超水平发挥了。更何况，中证 1000、创业板这些小票其实前段时间已经走出一波像样的上涨，很多行业比如电力、新能源、军工甚至 ...

Group 1: Trade Negotiations and Power Dynamics - The second round of trade negotiations between China and the U.S. took place on June 9 in London, with the U.S. pressuring China to fully open its rare earth exports [1] - China has made significant progress in controlling the rare earth supply chain, altering the balance of power in negotiations [1] - The U.S. military supply chain has serious vulnerabilities due to its reliance on imported rare earths, particularly the element samarium, which is crucial for military applications [2] Group 2: U.S. Dependence on Rare Earths - The U.S. has struggled to find substitutes for rare earths over the past decade, leading to a technological lag compared to China [2] - Many U.S. companies have opted to rely on overseas imports rather than invest in domestic rare earth production [2] - The strategic importance of rare earths, especially samarium, is highlighted by its use in advanced military equipment like the F-35 fighter jet [2] Group 3: China's Control Over Key Mineral Resources - China's control extends beyond rare earths to other critical minerals in high-tech industries, such as polysilicon, which is essential for solar energy [6] - China dominates global polysilicon production with an annual output of 2.1 million tons, significantly impacting the U.S. solar industry if export controls are implemented [6] - Other minerals like titanium, magnesium, and indium could also be targeted by China, affecting both civilian and military applications [6] Group 4: U.S. Response and Negotiation Strategies - Prior to the negotiations, the U.S. sought to lift all rare earth export controls, indicating a willingness to discuss the removal of restrictions on high-tech exports in exchange for concessions from China [7]

Group 1 - The core issue of the current US-China economic negotiations is the strategic competition over rare earth resources, with the US pressuring China to relax its control while simultaneously rallying allies to criticize China's policies [1][3] - The US has initiated the "Allied Rare Earth Partnership Program" in 2023, aiming to form a "Quad Alliance" involving Japan, Australia, and India to address its rare earth supply shortages [3] - The US is accelerating the development of its domestic rare earth supply chain, with significant investments such as the $5 billion from the Department of Defense to support the development of "rare earth-free permanent magnet" technology [3] Group 2 - Industry experts believe that the next five years will be critical for China to address the challenges posed by the US in the rare earth refining and processing sector, as the US may overcome technical bottlenecks during this period [5] - China needs to break through technological constraints in high-tech fields, particularly in advanced chip manufacturing processes, to mitigate the impact of US technological advantages [5] - The concentration of over 90% of global rare earth separation and processing capabilities in China presents a strategic advantage that can be leveraged to influence US high-end weapon development [6] Group 3 - China should expand international military trade cooperation, leveraging its strong military capabilities demonstrated in recent conflicts to enhance economic benefits and strategic influence globally [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments in stock holdings by various fund managers and institutions, highlighting contrasting strategies and significant movements in specific sectors such as medical devices, renewable energy, and high-end manufacturing [1][2][5][9]. Group 1: Medical Sector Adjustments - Fund managers Ge Lan and Wu Xingwu have shown "reverse operations" regarding Mai Pu Medical, with Ge Lan's fund entering the top ten shareholders while Wu Xingwu exited [1][2]. - Mai Pu Medical's stock price has increased by 37.52% year-to-date, with a cumulative rise of 18.16% in the second quarter [2]. - After reducing holdings in Jianyou shares, Ge Lan's fund has also exited the top ten shareholders of Jianyou, which has seen a cumulative decline of 19.1% in the second quarter [2]. Group 2: Adjustments in Renewable Energy Sector - Zheng Chengran has made significant adjustments in the photovoltaic sector, notably increasing holdings in Guodewei by 95.19% while exiting Daqian Energy [5][6]. - Guodewei's stock has experienced a cumulative decline of 9.37% in the second quarter, while Daqian Energy reported a 69.57% year-on-year revenue drop in the first quarter [5]. - Contrasting strategies are evident as Zhao Yi has continuously increased his holdings in De Ye shares, while Zheng Chengran has reduced his [6]. Group 3: Military and Semiconductor Sector Movements - Fund managers from Yongying Fund have shown differing strategies in military stocks, with a significant increase in holdings of Beifang Changlong by 56.9% from one manager, while another has exited the top ten shareholders [7]. - In the semiconductor sector, notable reductions in holdings of Ju Guang Technology have been observed, with a decrease of 20.45% [7][8]. Group 4: Institutional Adjustments - Domestic brokerages and foreign institutions have also made notable adjustments, primarily focusing on high-end manufacturing and chemical new materials [9][11]. - Notably, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan have exited several top shareholder positions, including those in North Changlong and Aipu shares, while also increasing their stakes in Xusheng Group [9][10]. - The article highlights a divergence in strategies, with Abu Dhabi Investment Authority increasing its stake in Baofeng Energy while CITIC Securities has reduced its holdings [11].

Group 1: Automotive Data Regulations - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) of China has solicited opinions on the "Automotive Data Export Security Guidelines (2025 Edition)" [1] - Automotive data processors must declare data export security assessments under specific conditions, including providing important data or personal information to overseas entities [1] Group 2: Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The Chinese stock market is expected to experience continued divergence from the U.S. market, with a focus on a barbell strategy and opportunities in overseas expansion [2] - The AI sector is anticipated to drive valuation recovery in the internet industry, while external geopolitical factors remain a significant influence on market sentiment [2] - The Chinese new energy vehicle (NEV) market is projected to grow by 24% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 53.3% [2] - The pharmaceutical sector is optimistic about domestic innovative drugs achieving overseas authorization, supported by national policies [3] Group 3: A-Share Market Analysis - Historical "bottoms" in the A-share market may have already occurred, with resilience observed despite external uncertainties [4] - The market is expected to continue narrow fluctuations, with potential upward movement dependent on macroeconomic policies, particularly fiscal measures [4] Group 4: Industry Opportunities - Investment opportunities are identified in three main areas: capacity cycle opportunities (industrial metals, lithium batteries, innovative drugs), high-growth sectors less correlated with economic cycles (AI industry), and dividend-paying sectors (consumer leaders, public utilities) [5] Group 5: Military Trade and Defense Industry - China's military trade is evolving, with the country transitioning from a "follower" to a "leader" in the global military trade landscape [6] - Investment opportunities in the defense sector include radar systems, guided equipment, drones, military aircraft, armored vehicles, and naval vessels [6] Group 6: Stablecoin Market Dynamics - The stablecoin market is gaining attention, with implications for financial technology and international currency dynamics [7] - USDT, a widely used stablecoin, has an issuance scale exceeding $150 billion, representing a new generation of payment technology [7] - Future focus on the listing of Circle and related companies in the stablecoin space is recommended [8]