美国的金融市场最近像是突然变了脸，有的人刚松一口气，有的人又被吓得不轻。眼瞅着美联储宣布降 息，还说要停止往市场"收水"，本以为大家都能安安心心过日子，想不到一番操作下来，国债市场却率 先炸了锅。 当天下午，美联储主席鲍威尔对外放话，别以为降息会一条道走到黑，后面还说不准。 这一下债市像被一桶冷水当头浇下，行情大变。很多人挣扎着想搞明白：为啥降息刚一说出口，市场反 而慌得更严重？ 文案|编辑：凤梨 这一切，还得从美联储自身的犹豫说起。虽然美国经济的表面数据还算好看，增速没有掉下来，人们也 还能找到工作，但现在的就业岗子可没之前多，工资也没涨多少。物价压不住，离美联储梦寐以求的 2%通胀目标差得远。 而且美国政府还在闹停摆，关键的经济数据发布一再推迟，鲍威尔和一帮决策者好比摸黑出牌，政策是 一天说一套，谁都没底。 更离谱的是，美联储内部自己都不统一。这次会议上，各路大佬甚至有人当场投反对票，好几位地方主 席公开站队不同意见，下次谁来做主心骨还真说不好。 可债券市场和那些高科技大公司，这时候却直喊压力大，借钱的利率越来越高，融资成本像爬楼一样蹭 蹭往上走。美国的银行也不轻松，能从美联储借的都赶紧去借，流动性开始紧 ...

Core Insights - The weekly timing strategy based on win rate is expected to provide effective signals for investors across different trading frequencies, ensuring coherence, low latency, and stable execution of trades. It can also be cross-verified with daily signals to manage risks and control trading rhythm [1][21][22] Group 1: Reevaluation of Interest Rate Timing System - The existing quantitative interest rate timing system has been constructed from various perspectives, including "odds," "win rate," and "cross-asset," to predict the movements of government bond yields. The odds perspective is more suitable for phases dominated by fundamental signals, while the win rate perspective is better for periods of increased volatility and trend strengthening [10][11] - The basic timing signals have shown significant distortion and lag behind market movements since the odds model was launched, primarily due to the low frequency and lagging nature of the data used [10][11] Group 2: Performance of Trading Timing Signals - Recent trading timing signals have demonstrated strong forward-looking capabilities, with an increasing number of bullish sub-models since October 21, indicating a strengthening bullish sentiment in the market amid easing US-China trade tensions [2][12] - The multi-signal strategy has shown superior net value performance compared to benchmarks during the testing period, with annualized returns of 3.09% for T products and 19.90% for TL products, alongside Sharpe ratios of 2.7 and 4.12 respectively [3][18] Group 3: Long-Cycle Trading Timing Framework - The long-cycle trading timing framework has potential reference value, as recent performance indicates that the trading timing can be applied over longer timeframes, such as weekly and monthly K-lines, without altering the logic of the six sub-strategies [17] - The multi-signal strategy has consistently outperformed benchmarks in the testing period, capturing structural bullish opportunities early and achieving positive returns [17][18]

Global Asset Market Performance - 10 - year Treasury yields of major economies: US 4.086, UK 4.424, France 3.437, Germany 2.653, Italy 3.399, Spain 3.158, Switzerland 0.087, Greece 3.275, Japan 1.664, Brazil 6.102, China 1.793, South Korea 3.086, Australia 4.350, New Zealand 4.101 [2] - 2 - year Treasury yields of major economies: US 3.577, UK 3.778, Germany 1.994, Japan 0.936, Italy 2.170, South Korea 2.661, Australia 3.616 [2] - USD exchange rates against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.401, South Africa zar 17.512, South Korean won 1440.400, Thai baht 32.550, Malaysian ringgit 4.197 [2] - RMB exchange rates: on - shore RMB 7.130, off - shore RMB 7.135, RMB central parity rate 7.089, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.983 [2] - Major economy stock indices: S&P 500 6771.550, Dow Jones Industrial Average 47085.240, Nasdaq 23348.640, Mexican stock index 62390.730, UK stock index 9714.960, France CAC 8067.530, Germany DAX 23949.110, Spanish stock index 16036.400, Japanese Nikkei 51497.200, Hang Seng Index 25952.400, Shanghai Composite Index 3960.186, Taiwan stock index 28116.560, South Korean stock index 4121.740, Indian stock index 8241.911, Thai stock index 1298.600, Malaysian stock index 1623.500, Australian stock index 9098.190, emerging - economy stock index 1393.380 [2] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing prices: A - shares 3960.19, CSI 300 4618.70, SSE 50 3012.97, ChiNext 3134.09, CSI 500 7210.83 [3] - Percentage changes: A - shares - 0.41%, CSI 300 - 0.75%, SSE 50 - 0.11%, ChiNext - 1.96%, CSI 500 - 1.67% [3] Valuation - PE (TTM): CSI 300 14.17, SSE 50 11.90, CSI 500 32.85, S&P 500 28.15, Germany DAX 19.81 [3] - Month - on - month changes: CSI 300 - 0.03, SSE 50 0.06, CSI 500 - 0.54, S&P 500 - 0.34, Germany DAX - 0.15 [3] Risk Premium - 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate: S&P 500 - 0.53, Germany DAX 2.39 [3] - Month - on - month changes: S&P 500 0.07, Germany DAX 0.05 [3] Fund Flows - Latest values: A - shares - 1494.83, Main board - 996.44, ChiNext - 379.93, CSI 300 - 239.09 [3] - 5 - day averages: A - shares - 667.86, Main board - 481.75, ChiNext - 120.57, CSI 300 - 107.90 [3] Transaction Amount - Latest values: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets 19157.58, CSI 300 5051.78, SSE 50 1310.58, Small and medium - sized board 3848.70, ChiNext 4768.17 [4] - Month - on - month changes: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets - 1913.73, CSI 300 - 524.25, SSE 50 - 35.79, Small and medium - sized board - 310.45, ChiNext - 589.85 [4] Main Contract Basis - Basis: IF - 29.70, IH - 4.77, IC - 116.23 [4] - Basis spreads: IF - 0.64%, IH - 0.16%, IC - 1.61% [4] Treasury Futures Trading Data - Closing prices: T2303 108.66, TF2303 106.03, T2306 108.40, TF2306 105.99 [4] - Percentage changes: T2303 - 0.02%, TF2303 - 0.02%, T2306 - 0.01%, TF2306 - 0.01% [4] Fund Rates - Rates: R001 1.3621%, R007 1.4584%, SHIBOR - 3M 1.5940% [4] - Daily changes: R001 - 10.00 BP, R007 0.00 BP, SHIBOR - 3M - 1.00 BP [4]

Core Viewpoint - Since 2021, the bond market has entered a prolonged bull market, with expectations that the yield curve may continue to steepen by 2026 due to the divergence between the new economy, represented by AI, and the traditional economy [2][4][5]. Group 1: Bond Market Outlook - The 10-year government bond yield has decreased from 3.2% at the beginning of 2021 to approximately 1.7% currently, driven by a slowdown in financing demand due to declining real estate and demographic changes [5][6]. - The overall bond yield is expected to remain on a downward trend, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to fall to between 1.2% and 1.5% by 2026 [10][12]. - The credit bond market may experience marginal weakening in demand, but support for short- to medium-term credit bonds remains strong, with credit spreads likely to stay at historically low levels [12][20]. Group 2: Economic Divergence - The global economy is witnessing a divergence between the strong new economy and the weakening traditional economy, influenced by various frictional factors such as fiscal constraints and geopolitical tensions [6][10]. - In the U.S., the persistent "three highs" issue (high inflation, high interest rates, and high wages) is expected to pressure traditional industries, leading to a slowdown in investment and hiring [6][9]. - The Chinese economy is also experiencing a similar divergence, with the new economy showing robust growth while traditional sectors like real estate and infrastructure face challenges [6][10]. Group 3: Credit Bond Dynamics - The demand for credit bonds may face fluctuations due to a slowdown in wealth management scale growth, but short-term credit bonds are expected to maintain support [13][20]. - The net increase in non-financial credit bonds is projected to remain concentrated in central state-owned enterprises, with an estimated net increase of around 1.8 trillion to 2 trillion yuan for the year [15][16]. - The credit risk for city investment bonds and state-owned enterprise bonds is expected to remain low, although uncertainties may arise post-2027 when the platform exit policy is fully implemented [20]. Group 4: Market Trends and Strategies - The volatility of convertible bonds in 2026 is anticipated to be lower than in 2024-2025, with a gradual recovery in the primary market expected [21][23]. - The issuance of public REITs is likely to accelerate under the guidance of regulatory policies, with potential catalysts including declining long-term interest rates and improvements in market fundamentals [29][30]. - The "productization" of fixed income markets is expected to gain momentum in 2026, highlighting the importance of constant ETF development [29].

Group 1: Overall Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - As of November 3, 2025, private - owned real estate bonds and industrial bonds in the outstanding credit bonds have higher overall valuation yields and spreads compared to other varieties. Yields of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds and real estate bonds have generally declined, and financial bond yields have also decreased [8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 General Information on Outstanding Credit Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields of public urban investment bonds in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are below 2.55%, while those with yields over 4.5% are from district - level in Guizhou. Private urban investment bonds in coastal provinces like Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian have weighted average valuation yields below 2.9%, and higher - yield varieties are in Guizhou, Yunnan, and Gansu [2]. - Compared with last week, yields of public urban investment bonds have generally declined, with the 3 - 5 - year varieties having an average decline of 9.7BP. Yields of private urban investment bonds have also generally declined, with the 3 - 5 - year varieties having an average decline of 10BP [2]. - Non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds (state - owned enterprises): 3 - 5 - year private non - perpetual and perpetual bonds have declined by 10.2BP and 9.8BP respectively, and the decline of varieties within 1 year is mostly within 5BP. Real estate bonds: yields have all declined, with significant differentiation between within 1 year and over 1 year, and non - perpetual bonds such as 2 - 3 - year state - owned public, 3 - 5 - year state - owned private, and private - owned public have a decline of over 9BP [3][8]. - In financial bonds, urban and rural commercial bank capital replenishment tools and leasing company bonds have relatively high valuation yields and spreads. Yields of financial bonds have declined. For example, in leasing bonds, the 2 - 3 - year private perpetual bonds have a yield decline of 9.5BP [4][8]. 3.2 Public Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields of public urban investment bonds in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are low, and those in Guizhou district - level are high. Yields have generally declined compared with last week, and the curve has flattened, with the 3 - 5 - year varieties having a large average decline [2][15]. - Specific varieties with large yield declines include 1 - 2 - year non - perpetual bonds of Zhejiang provincial level, 2 - 3 - year non - perpetual bonds of Henan district - level, etc. [2][15]. 3.3 Private Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields of private urban investment bonds in coastal provinces are low, and those in Guizhou, Yunnan, and Gansu are high. Yields have generally declined compared with last week, with the 3 - 5 - year varieties having an average decline of 10BP [2][23]. - Specific varieties with large yield declines include 3 - 5 - year perpetual bonds of Fujian district - level, 1 - 2 - year non - perpetual bonds of Guizhou prefecture - level, etc. [23].

2025年全球债市最魔幻的剧情，当属美债的逆袭封神。一边是赤字高企、关税争议不断，一边是30万亿 美元规模的美债市场涨势如虹，今年涨幅已达6%，直奔2020年以来最佳年度表现，堪称越争议越抢 手。 这波操作直接打了华尔街的脸。年初特朗普重新执政后，大规模关税、减税政策叠加巨额财政赤字，还 有对美联储的持续抨击，让不少机构喊出抛售美国资产的预警。 4月特朗普推出激进关税时，外界更担心外国投资者会用脚投票逃离美债。 结果呢？资本用真金白银上 演了反转大戏。 今年七国集团中，美国10年期国债收益率降幅最大，30年期国债更是主要经济体中唯一收益率下降的。 反观日本、德国、法国，长期融资成本大幅飙升，德国放宽了预算规则，法国遭遇信用评级下调，日本 长期收益率创下历史新高，一对比美债的竞争力就凸显出来了。 政策面也给美债添了把火。通胀基本得到控制，圣路易斯联储研究显示，企业仅将35%的关税涨幅转嫁 给消费者。关税每月带来约300亿美元收入，加上联邦雇员规模大幅缩减，一定程度缓解了赤字压力。 截至7月，外国持有的美债规模飙至9.2万亿美元，创下历史新高。基准10年期美债收益率今年下降约0.5 个百分点至4%左右，为政府、购 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the end of October 2025, the balance of outstanding credit bonds in China was 30.81 trillion yuan. In October 2025, the issuance of credit bonds decreased by 5.19% month - on - month, with a net financing of 3178.45 billion yuan [1][9]. - The issuance of urban investment bonds decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year in October 2025, with a net financing of - 87.1 billion yuan. In contrast, the issuance of industrial bonds increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, with a net financing of 3265.55 billion yuan [1][10][18]. - In October 2025, the trading volume of urban investment bonds decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while the trading volume of industrial bonds decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [2][34][37]. - The credit spreads of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds of different ratings showed different trends in October 2025, with some widening and some narrowing [2][37][43]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Credit Bond Issuance and Maturity 3.1.1 Credit Bond Issuance - As of the end of October 2025, the balance of outstanding credit bonds was 30.81 trillion yuan. In October 2025, credit bonds issued 11714.32 billion yuan, a 5.19% month - on - month decrease, with a net financing of 3178.45 billion yuan [1][9]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: As of the end of October 2025, the balance of outstanding urban investment bonds was 15.3 trillion yuan. In October 2025, the issuance was 3936.19 billion yuan, a 21.89% month - on - month and 2.63% year - on - year decrease, with a net financing of - 87.1 billion yuan. Regionally, Jiangsu had the highest issuance. In terms of ratings, AAA - rated urban investment bonds accounted for 44.63% of the total issuance [10][13][18]. - **Industrial Bonds**: As of the end of October 2025, the balance of outstanding industrial bonds was 15.51 trillion yuan. In October 2025, the issuance was 7778.13 billion yuan, a 6.31% month - on - month and 71.19% year - on - year increase, with a net financing of 3265.55 billion yuan. By industry, the utility industry had the highest issuance. In terms of ratings, AAA - rated industrial bonds accounted for 91.39% of the total issuance [18][22][26]. 3.1.2 Credit Bond Maturity - **Urban Investment Bonds**: From November to December 2025, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Zhejiang had relatively large maturity scales of urban investment bonds [28]. - **Industrial Bonds**: From November to December 2025, the utility, construction and decoration, non - banking finance, transportation, and real estate industries had relatively large maturity scales of industrial bonds [31]. 3.2 Credit Bond Trading and Spreads 3.2.1 Credit Bond Trading - **Urban Investment Bonds**: In October 2025, the trading volume was 8522.19 billion yuan, decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, with a turnover rate of 5.57% [34]. - **Industrial Bonds**: In October 2025, the trading volume was 12564.51 billion yuan, decreasing month - on - month but increasing year - on - year, with a turnover rate of 8.1% [37]. 3.2.2 Credit Bond Spreads - **Urban Investment Bonds**: In October 2025, the credit spreads of AAA and AA - rated urban investment bonds widened compared to the previous month, while the spreads of AA + - rated urban investment bonds remained the same. Regionally, the spreads of different regions and ratings showed different trends [37][41]. - **Industrial Bonds**: In October 2025, the credit spreads of AAA - rated industrial bonds narrowed compared to the previous month, while the spreads of AA + and AA - rated industrial bonds widened. By industry, the spreads of different industries and ratings also showed different trends [43][45].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a defensive shift in market sentiment, with significant inflows into bank-related ETFs as investors seek safer assets amid increased market volatility [1][6][11] - On November 4, bank stocks showed strong performance, with Xiamen Bank rising nearly 6%, and 9 out of the top 10 performing ETFs being bank-related, highlighting the sector's appeal to risk-averse investors [4][6] - The total trading volume of ETFs on November 4 was approximately 500.5 billion yuan, with a notable decrease of nearly 60 billion yuan from the previous day [8] Group 2 - The active trading of Sci-Tech bond ETFs was highlighted, with five such ETFs exceeding 9 billion yuan in trading volume on November 4, indicating strong market interest [2][8] - As of October 31, the total scale of bond ETFs surpassed 700 billion yuan, a significant increase from less than 180 billion yuan at the beginning of the year, with Sci-Tech bond ETFs contributing significantly to this growth [2] - The market is witnessing a clear shift towards defensive sectors, with significant net inflows into securities, banks, liquor, and innovative pharmaceuticals ETFs, reflecting a broader trend of capital moving towards previously underperforming sectors [3][11]

根据财政部及公开发债数据，今年前10个月全国发行地方政府债券合计约91062亿元，同比增长约 23%。目前地方政府融资的合法渠道主要是发行上述地方政府债券，超9万亿元举债规模创下同期历史 新高，也体现出今年更加积极财政政策靠前发力，以推动经济运行在合理区间。 另外，根据财政部及国家发改委公开信息，10月中旬地方政府额外允许新增发行5000亿元地方政府债 券。市场预计这5000亿元增量政策在今年11月和12月落地，这或许会使得地方政府债券发行规模保持相 对稳定。 第 490 期 2025-11-04 焦点关注 前10月地方政府借钱超9万亿，5000亿增量预计年底前落地 宏观动态 央行明日开展7000亿元买断式逆回购操作 央行公告，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年11月5日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多 重价位中标方式开展7000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（91天）。 同日，央行公布，10月公开市场国债买卖净投放200亿元。这意味着10月央行已恢复2025年1月以来暂停 的国债买卖，当月向银行体系注入长期流动性200亿元。 央行开展1175亿元7天期逆回购操作，净回笼3578亿元 11月4日 ...

Group 1 - The ratio of total returns between gold and U.S. Treasuries suggests that high inflation risks may have been adequately priced in, with the ratio reaching 0.38 as of October 2023, comparable to levels seen in August 1975 and June 1978 when U.S. CPI was significantly higher [2][4] - The skewness of options for the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has rebounded, indicating increased investor concern over inflation risks, leading to a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.1% despite the Federal Reserve's rate cuts [2][4] - The U.S. Treasury's increased debt issuance has resulted in a surge in the usage of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF), with Treasury cash reserves rising from $330 billion to $1 trillion between June and October 2023, while commercial bank reserves fell significantly [8][10] Group 2 - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 Index was reported at 4.4% as of October 31, 2023, indicating a potential for valuation uplift as it is below the historical average [14] - The forward arbitrage return for China's 10-year government bonds was noted at 27 basis points, which is significantly higher than levels recorded in December 2016, suggesting improved arbitrage opportunities [16] - The total return ratio between domestic stocks and bonds stood at 28.6 as of October 31, 2023, indicating that the relative attractiveness of equity assets compared to fixed income has increased [26]