Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for June is 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, with all sub-indices improving except for employment and business activity expectations[1] - New orders index turned from contraction to expansion at 50.2%, contributing 0.12 percentage points to the marginal improvement of the manufacturing PMI[5] - The procurement volume index also shifted from contraction to expansion, showing the most significant improvement among all sub-indices, marking the highest level since 2015 for this period[5] Group 2: Employment and Expectations - The employment index for June is 47.9%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, marking the weakest level of the year[1] - Business activity expectations index stands at 52%, down 0.5 percentage points, also the weakest year-to-date[1] - There is a disconnection between active procurement activities and the decline in employment and business expectations, indicating potential sustainability issues in procurement[13] Group 3: Construction Sector Analysis - The construction sector's PMI rose to 52.8% in June, primarily supported by the improvement in the real estate sector rather than infrastructure[17] - The civil engineering activity index recorded 56.7%, indicating a high level of activity, but this is a decline from May, suggesting that the construction sector's recovery is not driven by infrastructure projects[17] - The real estate sector's new orders index remains below 50%, indicating that the sustainability of improvements in the construction sector needs further validation from sales and investment trends[18] Group 4: Risk Factors - Consumer confidence recovery is slow, and policy implementation is not meeting expectations, posing risks to the economic outlook[23]

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 49.7%, matching expectations and slightly up from the previous value of 49.5%[1] - The non-manufacturing PMI stands at 50.5%, an increase from the prior value of 50.3%[1] - The average composite PMI for Q2 is 50.4%, lower than Q1's average of 50.9% and last year's Q2 average of 51.1%[1] Group 2: Demand and Price Trends - New orders in manufacturing, construction, and services have rebounded by 0.4, 1.6, and 0.3 percentage points respectively, indicating improved demand[2] - Manufacturing prices have rebounded by 1.5 percentage points, while construction and service prices increased by 0.8 and 1.6 percentage points respectively, although all remain below the expansion threshold[2] Group 3: External Demand and Employment - Manufacturing new export orders increased by 0.2 percentage points to 47.7%, still below the Q1 average of 48.0%[3] - Employment indices in manufacturing and services have decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 47.9% and 46.4%, respectively, indicating ongoing contraction in workforce[5] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The composite PMI of 50.7% in June is 0.2 percentage points lower than the Q1 average, suggesting a slower economic recovery[6] - The necessity for immediate policy stimulus is reduced, with potential policy actions expected to be postponed until August or September[6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in the manufacturing boom level [2]. - The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, showing that the non - manufacturing sector generally continued to expand [3]. - The composite PMI output index was 50.7%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing PMI - **Overall Index**: In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May. Large enterprises' PMI was 51.2% (up 0.5 percentage points), medium - sized enterprises' was 48.6% (up 1.1 percentage points), and small enterprises' was 47.3% (down 2.0 percentage points) [2]. - **Sub - indices**: Among the 5 sub - indices, the production index (51.0%, up 0.3 percentage points), new order index (50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points), and supplier delivery time index (50.2%, up 0.2 percentage points) were above the critical point. The raw material inventory index (48.0%, up 0.6 percentage points) and the employment index (47.9%, down 0.2 percentage points) were below the critical point [2]. Non - manufacturing PMI - **Overall Index**: The non - manufacturing business activity index in June was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The construction business activity index was 52.8% (up 1.8 percentage points), and the service business activity index was 50.1% (down 0.1 percentage points) [3]. - **Industry Situation**: Industries such as postal, telecommunications, and financial services were in a high - boom range (above 55.0%), while retail, transportation, and real estate industries were below the critical point [3]. Composite PMI Output Index - In June, the composite PMI output index was 50.7%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an acceleration in the overall expansion of enterprises' production and business activities [4].

Manufacturing PMI Insights - June manufacturing PMI improved slightly from 49.5% in May to 49.7%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus of 49.6% but still below seasonal levels[1] - Production index rose by 0.3 percentage points to 51.0%, while new orders index increased from 49.8% to 50.2%[3] - New export orders index saw a minor increase from 47.5% to 47.7%, remaining below seasonal averages[5] Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - Non-manufacturing business activity index rose by 0.2 percentage points to 50.5%, with the construction sector showing significant recovery[6] - Service sector index slightly declined to 50.1%, indicating mixed performance across industries[6] Price Trends and Economic Outlook - Both purchasing prices and factory prices showed signs of recovery, with raw material prices index rising by 1.5 percentage points to 48.4%[7] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies post July 9 may disrupt future export and production activities, necessitating stronger monetary and fiscal policies[2] Employment and Business Expectations - Employment index in manufacturing fell by 0.2 percentage points to 47.9%, indicating ongoing challenges in labor market stability[3] - Business activity expectations index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 52%, reflecting cautious outlook among manufacturers[3]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 49.7%, showing a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery in the manufacturing sector [1] - In June, the new orders index rose to 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points, marking a return to the expansion zone after two months below 50% [2] - The production index for manufacturing increased to 51%, up 0.3 percentage points, reflecting stable expansion in production activities [2] - The purchasing volume index for raw materials also returned to the expansion zone at 50.2%, increasing by 2.6 percentage points [2] - The equipment manufacturing PMI is at 51.4%, high-tech manufacturing PMI at 50.9%, and consumer goods PMI at 50.4%, all indicating expansion [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index for June is reported at 50.5%, a 0.2 percentage point increase, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [5] - The construction sector shows significant growth with a business activity index of 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, and civil engineering at 56.7%, indicating strong activity [6] - The service sector's business activity index is at 50.1%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage point, but the business activity expectation index remains high at 56% [5][6] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall economic climate is showing resilience, with manufacturing PMI recovering for two consecutive months, suggesting a stable economic foundation [4] - The second quarter saw fluctuations due to external factors, but the manufacturing sector is expected to maintain steady growth in the second half of the year [4] - The non-manufacturing business activity index has consistently remained above 50%, indicating stable expansion in the sector [6]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人| 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 6月30日，国家统计局公布6月PMI指数，制造业PMI为49.7%、前值49.5%；非制造业PMI为 50.5%、前值50.3%。 却下行至2023年来最低水平（52%）。展望后续，设备更新周期逐步退坡，出口链生产走弱，制造业景 气面临较大下行压力。但近期扩内需政策再加码，5000亿服务消费再贷款、准财政工具（政策性开发性 金融工具）已对服务业投资进行部署，服务消费、基建投资或加快修复，有望对企业和居民预期形成支 撑。 常规跟踪：制造业、非制造业景气均有改善。 制造业：制造业：制造业PMI有所回升，生产、新订单指数延续改善。 6月，制造业PMI边际上行0.2pct 至49.7%。生产、新订单指数边际分别上行0.3、0.3pct至51%、50.2%。 核心观点：制造业景气回升，但企业预期降至低位；政策加码下，需关注微观预期的变化。 6月制造业PMI表现好于市场预期，结构上依然是生产指数恢复更好。 6月制造业PMI延续回升，边际上 行0.2pct至49.7%，好于市场预期（WIND，49.3%）。主要分项中，生产、新订单指数 ...

Core Viewpoint - Manufacturing sector shows signs of recovery, but corporate expectations have dropped to a low level; increased policy support is needed to monitor changes in micro expectations [3][6][100] Manufacturing Sector - June manufacturing PMI improved to 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May, exceeding market expectations of 49.3% [2][10] - The production and new orders indices both rose, reaching 51% and 50.2% respectively, indicating expansion [3][10] - The new orders index showed slight improvement, with domestic demand orders recovering more than new export orders [22][98] - High-frequency indicators reveal a year-on-year decline in foreign trade cargo volume, indicating reduced export strength [22][98] Industry Analysis - High-energy-consuming industries saw a significant PMI increase, rising 0.8 percentage points to 47.8%, driven by investment and ongoing infrastructure projects [4][28] - Equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors also benefited from domestic demand, with PMIs rising to 51.4% and 50.4% respectively [4][28] - Food and beverage, as well as specialized equipment sectors, have maintained production and new order indices in the expansion zone for two consecutive months [4][28] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The construction sector's PMI rose significantly by 1.8 percentage points to 52.8%, indicating rapid progress in infrastructure projects [31][99] - The civil engineering PMI reached 56.7%, remaining in a high prosperity range for three consecutive months [31][99] - In contrast, the real estate sector's construction progress appears slower, with weak performance in cement and rebar consumption [31][99] Service Sector - The service sector PMI slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points to 50.1%, primarily due to the fading effects of holiday consumption [5][42] - Business activity indices in retail, transportation, and hospitality sectors showed varying degrees of decline, reflecting reduced market activity [5][42] - Conversely, sectors such as telecommunications and financial services maintained high business activity indices above 60% [5][42] Future Outlook - There are risks of weakening manufacturing sentiment, necessitating close attention to the impact of incremental policies on domestic demand and changes in corporate expectations [6][100] - Despite the recovery in production and new orders, the corporate expectation index has fallen to its lowest level in 2023 at 52% [6][100] - Recent policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, including a 500 billion yuan service consumption relending initiative, may support corporate and consumer expectations [6][100]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) has shown continuous improvement, with a reading of 49.7% in June, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking two consecutive months of increase [1][25] - In June, 11 out of 21 surveyed industries were in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2][25] - The new orders index returned to the expansion zone at 50.2%, after being below 50% for two months, reflecting a recovery in market demand [4][25] Group 2 - The equipment manufacturing PMI was 51.4%, up 0.2 percentage points, with both production and new orders indices above 53%, indicating strong performance in this sector [9] - The consumer goods manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points, showing stable growth in this area [13] - Large enterprises continued to expand, with their PMI at 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises also saw a recovery, with their PMI increasing by 1.1 percentage points [15][13] Group 3 - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [18] - The construction industry business activity index increased to 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, reflecting a recovery in construction activities, particularly in infrastructure projects [22][24] - Overall, the purchasing managers' index serves as an important leading indicator of macroeconomic trends, showing a resilient economic performance in the first half of the year despite fluctuations [25][29]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In June, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - Large enterprises had a PMI of 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, while medium and small enterprises had PMIs of 48.6% and 47.3%, respectively, indicating a decline for smaller firms [1] - The production index was 51.0%, up 0.3 percentage points, suggesting accelerated production activities in the manufacturing sector [2] Group 2: Manufacturing Sub-Indices - The new orders index was 50.2%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points, indicating improved market demand in manufacturing [3] - The raw materials inventory index was 48.0%, up 0.6 percentage points, indicating a continued narrowing of the decline in major raw material inventories [3] - The employment index was 47.9%, down 0.2 percentage points, reflecting a slight decrease in employment sentiment within manufacturing [3] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - In June, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [6] - The construction industry business activity index was 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, while the services sector index was 50.1%, down 0.1 percentage points [8] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sub-Indices - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 46.6%, up 0.5 percentage points, indicating a slight recovery in market demand [10] - The input prices index was 49.9%, up 1.7 percentage points, suggesting stable input prices for non-manufacturing activities [10] - The business activity expectation index was 55.6%, down 0.3 percentage points, indicating a generally optimistic outlook among non-manufacturing enterprises [11] Group 5: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The Comprehensive PMI Output Index was 50.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities across sectors [14]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing sector in China shows signs of improvement, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June rising to 49.7%, marking a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a continuous upward trend for two consecutive months [1] Manufacturing Sector Summary - The PMI for the equipment manufacturing industry reached 51.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, with both production and new orders indices above 53% [5] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 50.9%, remaining stable compared to last month, with production and new orders indices around 52% [5] - The consumer goods manufacturing PMI increased to 50.4%, a rise of 0.2 percentage points, reflecting steady growth [7] - The basic raw materials industry PMI rose by 0.8 percentage points, ending a three-month decline [7] Enterprise Type Analysis - Large enterprises continued to expand, with their PMI at 51.2%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from last month, indicating significant support for the overall manufacturing sector [9] - The PMI for medium-sized enterprises increased by 1.1 percentage points, ending a two-month downward trend, with new orders index rising over 4 percentage points, showing a notable recovery in demand [11] Non-Manufacturing Sector Summary - The non-manufacturing business activity index for June was 50.5%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion [11] - The service industry business activity index was 50.1%, showing stability in the sector [11] - The construction industry business activity index rose to 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, indicating a recovery in activity levels [11] - The civil engineering construction index was at 56.7%, remaining above 55% for three consecutive months, suggesting rapid progress in infrastructure projects [11] - Investment-related activities in the construction sector have shown significant recovery, supported by the expansion of special bond investments [11]