1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term long/short trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish bias, with a driving force for upward trend but poor operability on the market [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for upward trend but poor operability on the market [1] - Coking coal: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term long/short trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Manganese silicon: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias, with a driving force for upward trend but poor operability on the market [1] - Ferrosilicon: ☆☆☆, meaning a short - term long/short trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall steel market is in a state of range - bound oscillation. Iron ore, coke, and coking coal are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are experiencing price declines and need to focus on cost support and the impact of "anti - involution" [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market declined today. The apparent demand for thread steel increased, production slightly decreased, and the inventory accumulation slowed. The demand for hot - rolled coil improved, production slightly increased, and inventory continued to decline. Steel mill profits were marginally repaired, but due to insufficient downstream acceptance capacity, blast furnace复产 slowed, and hot metal production decreased. Domestic demand remained weak overall, while steel exports remained high. Steel prices followed the cost center down and were mainly in range - bound oscillation [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market weakened significantly today, and the basis recently narrowed. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased week - on - week but was still stronger than the same period last year. Shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased significantly but were still higher year - on - year, while non - mainstream shipments increased week - on - week. The domestic arrival volume decreased, but it increased significantly compared with the same period last year. On the demand side, hot metal production stopped increasing and started to decline. The inventory of imported ores in steel mills increased, and the expectation of winter storage replenishment demand still existed. It's expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [3] Coke - The coke price oscillated during the day. The first round of price increase is expected to be implemented this week. Coking profits were average, and daily production slightly decreased. Coke inventory increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders improved slightly. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, and downstream hot metal production remained at a low level. The coke futures price had a premium, and the price was likely to follow a weak oscillation [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated during the day. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1465 vehicles yesterday. The production of coking coal mines increased significantly, and the spot auction transactions improved. The terminal inventory increased significantly, and the total inventory of coking coal increased slightly. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, downstream hot metal production remained at a low level, and the price was likely to be weakly volatile [5] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon price oscillated downward during the day. There were structural problems in the manganese ore port inventory. The demand for cheaper semi - carbonate ore was likely to increase. The hot metal production decreased seasonally, the weekly production of manganese silicon decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" and the cost support [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price oscillated downward during the day. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price was relatively strong. The market expected a decline in power costs and semi - coke prices. The hot metal production rebounded to a high - level range, the export demand decreased, and the production of magnesium metal increased month - on - month. The overall demand was still resilient. The supply of ferrosilicon decreased significantly, and the inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" and the cost support [7]

Core Viewpoint - On January 19, Dazhong Mining executed a block trade amounting to 137 million yuan, with a transaction price of 24.48 yuan per share, reflecting a discount of 13.86% compared to the closing price of the day [1] Group 1: Block Trade Details - The block trade involved a volume of 5.5802 million shares [1] - The buyer was Guojin Securities Co., Ltd. Beijing Chongwenmenwai Street Securities Branch, while the seller was Guojin Securities Co., Ltd. Beijing Changchun Street Securities Branch [1] - In the last three months, Dazhong Mining has recorded a total of 6 block trades, with a cumulative transaction amount of 536 million yuan [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - The closing price of Dazhong Mining on the day of the trade was 28.42 yuan, which represented an increase of 4.49% [1] - The daily turnover rate was 3.03%, with a total transaction amount of 1.137 billion yuan [1] - There was a net inflow of main funds amounting to 45.3285 million yuan for the day, while the stock has seen a cumulative decline of 4.47% over the past five days, with a total net outflow of 213 million yuan [1]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.29% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.09%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.70% on January 19 [2] - Sectors such as precious metals, power grid equipment, and flexible direct current transmission saw significant gains [2] - The National Energy Administration announced that by 2025, China's total electricity consumption is expected to exceed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours, reaching 10.4 trillion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 5% [2] Group 2 - Oriental Securities highlighted the zinc sector as an overlooked material in the context of de-globalization, with supply and demand improving and prices expected to rise [3] - The market has been pessimistic about lead and zinc due to domestic infrastructure and real estate concerns, but there is optimism regarding the re-industrialization in Asia, Africa, and Latin America driving demand [3] - Huafu Securities noted that key technologies for small modular reactors (SMR) are being developed by domestic companies, with progress on energy solutions tailored for data centers [3]

Group 1 - On the institutional trading leaderboard, 49 stocks were listed, with 29 experiencing net buying and 20 facing net selling [1] - The top three stocks with the highest institutional buying were: Shengguang Group (CNY 423 million), Goldwind Technology (CNY 339 million), and China Uranium Industry (CNY 280 million) [1] - Shengguang Group saw a decline of 7.99%, while Goldwind Technology and China Deyue experienced increases of 2.44% and 7.90%, respectively [2] Group 2 - China Uranium Industry, which focuses on the comprehensive utilization of natural uranium and radioactive co-associated mineral resources, had net buying of CNY 280 million from four institutions [3] - According to Guotai Junan Securities, the core driver for global natural uranium demand growth is the development of nuclear energy, with a forecasted increase in uranium demand to 150,500 tons by 2040 [3] - The anticipated long-term supply-demand gap in natural uranium is expected to benefit the company significantly due to the acceleration of nuclear power construction and the global energy transition [3] Group 3 - The State Grid Corporation of China announced a fixed asset investment of CNY 4 trillion during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, marking a historical high and a 40% increase compared to the previous plan [4]

Core Viewpoint - CICC initiates coverage on Jaxin International Resources (03858) with an "outperform industry" rating and a target price of HKD 95, based on a price-to-earnings valuation method, corresponding to 22.6 times and 14.8 times earnings for the current and next year respectively [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company focuses on the operation of the Bakuta tungsten mine in Kazakhstan and is viewed positively by CICC [1] - CICC forecasts the company's earnings per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be HKD 0.63, HKD 4.18, and HKD 6.56 respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 221.6% [1] - The expected net profit attributable to the parent company for the same years is projected to be RMB 260 million, RMB 1.72 billion, and RMB 2.63 billion [1] Group 2: Industry Analysis - The global tungsten supply-demand landscape is expected to remain tight, with tungsten prices likely to gradually increase [1] - CICC estimates that the global raw tungsten supply will grow at a CAGR of only 2.4% from 2023 to 2028, while global raw tungsten consumption is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.7% during the same period [1] - The global tungsten inventory has been reduced to low levels, indicating a long-term tight supply-demand relationship for tungsten [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that CICC has initiated coverage on Jiexin International Resources (03858) with an "outperform industry" rating and a target price of HKD 95, based on a price-to-earnings valuation method corresponding to 22.6 times and 14.8 times earnings for the current and next year respectively [1] - CICC is optimistic about the company due to the global tungsten supply-demand situation potentially remaining tight, with tungsten prices expected to steadily rise. The forecast for global tungsten supply from 2023 to 2028 is an average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 2.4%, while global tungsten consumption is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.7% during the same period [1] - The global tungsten supply-demand relationship is anticipated to remain tight in the long term, compounded by low global tungsten inventory levels, which supports the expectation of a continued increase in tungsten price levels [1] Group 2 - CICC projects the company's earnings per share for 2025 to 2027 to be HKD 0.63, HKD 4.18, and HKD 6.56 respectively, indicating a CAGR of 221.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 260 million, RMB 1.72 billion, and RMB 2.63 billion for the same years [1]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - First Quantum's copper production in 2025 was 396,000 tonnes, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%, but still within the revised guidance range of 390,000 to 410,000 tonnes [1] - The Kansanshi mine achieved an annual copper production of 181,000 tonnes in 2025, an increase of 10,000 tonnes from 2024, with the S3 segment contributing 25,000 tonnes [2] - The Sentinel mine's annual copper production was 189,000 tonnes, a decrease of 42,000 tonnes from 2024, primarily due to declining grades and rising maintenance costs [3] - Gold production in 2025 reached 152,000 ounces (4.73 tonnes), a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, exceeding the revised guidance [4] - Nickel production for 2025 was 23,000 tonnes, a decrease of 4.2%, with the Enterprise mine showing strong performance [7] Production and Operational Performance - Q4 2025 copper production was 101,000 tonnes, down 3.8% quarter-on-quarter and down 9.8% year-on-year [12] - Q4 2025 gold production was 37,000 ounces, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.1% [4][12] - Q4 2025 nickel production was 9,000 tonnes, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 56.1% and a year-on-year increase of 125% [7][12] Future Guidance - For 2026, copper production is guided at 375,000 to 435,000 tonnes, gold at 175,000 to 200,000 ounces, and nickel at 30,000 to 40,000 tonnes [13] - Capital expenditure guidance for 2026 is set at $1 billion to $1.15 billion [15] Project Updates - The Cobre Panama copper project is in the exploration and mining plan phase, with significant government approvals and activities ongoing [9][10] - The processing of stockpiled ore is expected to produce approximately 70,000 tonnes of copper, with processing activities anticipated to start within three months of receiving official approval [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government plans to utilize 39 billion yen from the current fiscal year's budget reserves to diversify the supply chain of critical minerals [1] Group 1 - The allocated funds will be invested in the Japan Metal and Mineral Resources Agency [1] - The agency supports Japanese companies in developing mines or smelting operations overseas [1]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a significant decline, with the main contract for nickel futures closing at 142,320.00 yuan/ton, down 1.42% [1] - Macro factors include Trump's announcement of tariffs on eight European countries starting February 1, which may lead to retaliatory tariffs from multiple EU countries [2] - The Canadian Prime Minister announced a reduction in the import tax rate on 49,000 electric vehicles from China from 100% to 6.1% [2] Group 2 - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to set the nickel production target for 2026 between 250 to 260 million tons, a significant reduction from the 379 million tons quota for 2025, though actual implementation remains to be seen [2] - Nickel ore prices are stabilizing as Indonesia cracks down on illegal mining, and the Philippines enters the rainy season, which may impact future nickel mining activities [2] - The stainless steel sector is experiencing upward pressure, with increased losses for downstream nickel-iron plants, leading to some high-cost nickel-iron plants in Indonesia halting production for maintenance [2] - The outlook for nickel prices suggests they will follow fluctuations in the non-ferrous market, with uncertainty regarding nickel ore quotas likely to persist, and a recommendation to buy on dips despite short-term cooling market sentiment [2]

人民财讯1月19日电，1月15日，自然资源部部长关志鸥在京会见蒙古工业和矿产资源部部长达木丁尼亚 木，双方就深化中蒙矿业领域合作深入交流并达成共识。 ...