2025-09-28 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 创业板指或将进入中枢震荡状态 长江证券研究所金融工程研究小组 1 分析师 覃川桃 SAC执业证书编号：S0490513030001 SFC执业证书编号：BUT353 分析师及联系人 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 9月行情强度 9月从弹性靠前的个股对应的阶段性涨幅看与8月弹性相当，但鉴于涨幅榜前20的个股中涨时自由流通市值 在百亿以上的仍有5只，起涨时成交额大致在10亿的量级，整体强度虽不及8月但仍处于较为理想的状态 表：9月涨幅榜前20（截至9月26日） | 属性 | 名称 | 最低到最高涨幅 | 前最低价（元） | 起涨时自由流通市值（亿） | 起涨时成交额（千万） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 机器人 | 首开股份 | 239% | 2.61 | 32.61 | 10.30 | | 固态电池 | 海博思创 | 140% | 120.55 | 46.81 | 24.98 | | 芯片 | 向日葵 | ...

智通财经记者 | 龙力 "本来打算满仓过节的，但是这几天市场的波动有点大，所以又有些动摇了。"资深投资者郑先生对智通财经表示。 十一小长假将至，"持股还是持币过节"成为摆在许多投资者面前一道艰难的选择题。 作为A股市场上最重要的参与者之一，私募们将维持怎样的仓位来过节？ "不做仓位调整，接近满仓过国庆小长假。"华辉创富投资总经理袁华明对智通财经表示。 "节前仓位可能依旧保持5-7成"，小禹投资基金经理黎仕禹对智通财经谈到，"当前市场处于震荡行情，倘若仓位过轻可能会出现踏空行情的情况；而仓位过 重可能在市场杀跌回调时候比较'受伤'，所以'半仓做滚动，适当进行高抛低吸'可能是当前阶段比较合适的策略。" 维持较高仓位过节是很多私募的共识。 智通财经统计了过去十年（即2015年至2024年）万得全A指数在十一假期之后不同时间段内的表现情况。 数据显示，过去十年间，万得全A指数节后1日、5日、20日上涨概率均为70%，节后10日上涨概率为80%，但是不同年份节后各个时间段内的涨跌情况并不 完全一致。以2024年为例，万得全A指数节后首日大涨7.14%，节后5日反而下跌1.57%，节后10日和节后20日分别上涨0.06% ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - The solid-state battery sector is gradually transitioning from laboratory to mass production validation, with small-scale vehicle trials expected by the end of 2025 and widespread trials anticipated in 2026-2027 [25] - The global solid-state battery shipment volume is projected to reach 10 GWh in 2025 and 614.1 GWh by 2030, although challenges such as high costs and incomplete supply chains remain [24][28] - Recent advancements include the development of a new high-energy-density polymer electrolyte by Tsinghua University, which enhances solid-state interface contact and ion conduction capabilities [27] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The solid-state battery index increased by 1.3% from September 22 to September 26, 2025, with a cumulative increase of 50.4% since December 31, 2024 [11] - The average performance of solid-state battery-related stocks was -0.4% during the same period, with notable gains in battery and aluminum-plastic film sectors [4][11] Company Developments - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) is recommended as a key beneficiary in the solid-state battery sector [25] - Dongfeng Motor's solid-state battery plans include a demonstration vehicle set for 2026, with significant progress reported by companies like Dangsheng Technology, which has achieved 10-ton batch shipments of solid-state lithium battery cathode materials [23][29] Market Performance - The top-performing stocks in the solid-state battery sector included Penghui Energy (+18.6%), Xianlead Intelligent (+17.8%), and Dangsheng Technology (+11.2%) [17][26] - Conversely, stocks such as Zhongyi Technology (-10.2%) and Tiantian Technology (-9.7%) experienced significant declines [17][26]

Group 1 - The approval of Moer’s IPO is expected to reverse negative sentiment and lead to a recovery in the market, particularly benefiting the consecutive board stocks that have faced significant negative feedback recently [1] - Breakthroughs in domestic chip technology and reductions in semiconductor import plans are likely to boost the domestic semiconductor sector, presenting an opportunity for investment in this area [1] - The implementation of export license management for pure electric passenger vehicles in 2026 is seen as a positive development for leading new energy vehicle companies, with expectations for strong performance from major players like BYD [2] Group 2 - The upcoming cultural tourism consumption month, featuring 29,000 events and 4.8 trillion yuan in subsidies, is anticipated to support the recovery of the tourism and consumer sectors, particularly benefiting companies like Caesar [2] - Increased expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in October may provide opportunities for small investors, especially in the precious metals sector, during the upcoming holiday period [3] - The recent statements from the central bank indicate a supportive stance towards market stability and potential monetary easing, which may lead to a positive market response despite some mixed signals [3]

Core Viewpoints - The adjustment phase in A-shares is not expected to lead to a major downward risk in the medium term, with a high probability of a "red October" following the current adjustments, as long-term policy layouts are approaching and technological catalysts continue to persist [3][5][6] - The economic outlook for the second half of 2025 remains uncertain, but it is not expected to affect the anticipated upward turning point in supply-demand dynamics in 2026 [3][5][6] - The narrative of a bull market is still valid, with the current phase characterized by increased allocation of equity by residents and improvements in cyclical fundamentals [3][5] Short-term Market Outlook - October is seen as a critical policy layout window, which may stabilize and elevate market expectations after the current adjustments [6][7] - The cyclical catalysts are expected to be limited in the fourth quarter of 2025, while technological industry catalysts are on an upward trend, particularly in AI, both domestically and internationally [6][7] - The ongoing adjustments are likely to improve short-term cost-effectiveness indicators, setting the stage for the "red October" market to unfold [6][7] Medium-term Market Outlook - Before spring 2026, technological industry catalysts are expected to dominate over cyclical catalysts, although there may be short-term cost-effectiveness issues in tech growth [7][8] - Spring 2026 may present challenges for the A-share market, including verification of demand-side dynamics and potential delays in the supply-demand turning point if demand remains weak [7][8] - The long-term cost-effectiveness of the tech industry may reach low levels, similar to previous market conditions in late 2013 and late 2019, potentially leading to a mid-term consolidation phase [7][8] Structural Outlook - The trend in tech growth is expected to remain dominant, with better performance in high-low switches within tech sectors compared to switches between growth and value [8][9] - New catalysts in emerging sectors are anticipated to have high elasticity, with significant growth potential in sectors like overseas computing power, innovative pharmaceuticals, energy storage, solid-state batteries, and advanced manufacturing technologies [8][9] - The structural transition from a structural bull market to a comprehensive bull market is critical, with a focus on industries like photovoltaics and chemicals [8][9] Hong Kong Market Outlook - The medium-term outlook for the Hong Kong market remains positive, benefiting from the anticipated interest rate cuts and the strengthening of new economic trends [9]

Core Viewpoints - The judgment that the small-level adjustment wave of A-shares has not ended is being validated, with no medium-term downside risk and the short-term adjustment not being of a large scale. After the adjustment, a "red October" is highly probable due to the approaching long-term policy layout period and ongoing technological catalysts, with short-term price-performance adjustments likely to be resolved soon [1][5][6] Market Adjustment and Outlook - The current market is undergoing a small-level adjustment since early September, with the core issue being the lack of consensus on the structural mainline to push the index higher. The space and time for a technology structural bull market are limited, leading to market resistance in the upward movement as it digests price-performance issues [5][6] - The adjustment is unfolding, and it is emphasized that there will not be a large-scale adjustment in the short term. The core reason is that there is no real downside risk in the medium term. Economic improvement in the second half of 2025 and further policy efforts are expected to support the upward turning point in supply-demand dynamics in 2026 [2][5][6] Expectations for October - October is seen as a critical policy layout window, where the adjustment will be conducive to stabilizing and improving capital market expectations. Potential catalysts are being evaluated dynamically, with a focus on the demand side looking towards a new round of "policy bottom" to "economic bottom" in 2026, while supply-side clearing is expected in mid-2026 [6][7] - The cyclical catalysts for Q4 2025 are relatively limited, but the technological industry continues to show upward trends, particularly in AI, which has not yet reached its boundaries. The current period is characterized by increasing highlights in the technology industry, and the structural heat may re-energize in October [6][9] Medium-term Market Outlook - Before spring 2026, the technological industry is expected to have significantly more catalysts than cyclical ones, although there may be short-term price-performance issues in technology growth. The trend in technology growth may continue, eventually leading to a long-term low price-performance area [6][7] - Spring 2026 may represent a phase peak for the A-share market, facing challenges such as the arrival of a key verification period on the demand side and the potential delay in the supply-demand turning point if demand remains weak. New structural highlights may still need time to emerge, and the long-term price-performance of the technology industry may reach low levels [7][9] Structural Outlook - The trend in technology growth is expected to dominate, with better performance in high-low switches within technology than between growth and value. New catalysts in emerging sectors are anticipated to have high elasticity, with mid-term market space remaining for technology sectors that have already accumulated certain gains [9][10] - The transition from a structural bull to a comprehensive bull market is crucially linked to the anti-involution trend, with a focus on sectors like photovoltaics and chemicals. The mid-term outlook for Hong Kong stocks remains unchanged, benefiting from the strengthening of "Trump's interest rate cut bullish options" and the fermentation of new economic industry trends [9][10]

这次的牛市，并不是雨露均沾，鸡犬升天的牛市，而是冰火两重天的牛市。一方面，芯片、 光模块、创新药、机器人、存储、固态电池等科技概念轮番上阵，涨幅惊人，另一方面，银 行、保险、地产、消费等传统版块，被吸得连血都快空了。很多传统意义上的白马优质股， 股价也是大幅跑输市场。"老登"们一边高呼看不懂，一边对科技嗤之以鼻。 我的理解是，世界经济是以创新周期为单位，脉冲式前进的，并不是一条直线的斜率向上。 一波科技红利，催生一波基础设施的变化，创造出新的需求，然后基于这些基础设施的应用 再慢慢开花结果。这个周期是以20年为单位的。 上一波世界级的科技红利，来自于互联网和移动互联网。基础设施来自于电信运营商（零几 年的移动、联通，在就业市场的受追捧程度，经历过那个时代的人都懂），来自于手机厂商 （基本上造就了苹果、三星、小米、OV等世界级巨头）。然后应用端，google、亚马逊、阿 里、腾讯、百度、字节等世界级的平台型公司，也是这一波科技红利的直接结果。 现在世界进入了新的一波AI主导的科技革命，而且比上一次还要大，这可能是蒸汽机以来人类 最伟大的技术革命，甚至某种程度上可能真的实现共产主义愿景里的物质极大丰富，大家按 需 ...

以前听炒股的老登们吹牛逼，总说牛市最讲究 "雨露均沾"，轮动起来才叫热闹 瞅瞅当下的 A 股，芯片、光模块、创新药、机器人、存储、固态电池这几个主儿跟 走秀似的，在舞台中央来回蹦跶，涨得让人怀疑人生。可另一边呢？传统板块被吸 得连血都快空了，跌得比正经熊市还惨，这哪是轮动，分明是 "精准抽血"！ 不是说牛市最大的特征是轮动么？？？ https://www.jisilu.cn/question/513775 集思录(www.jisilu.cn)是一个以数据为本的投资理财社区，专注于新股、可转债、债券、封闭 基金等数据服务。我们的理念是在保证本金安全的前提下，使资产获得稳健增长。 快捷查询： 搜索公众号"jisilu8"添加我们 当年没离职的同事，都过得怎么样了 https://www.jisilu.cn/question/513858 关注集思录微信 特别提示 本文不构成任何投资建议，仅为信息分享。任何因本文导致的投资行为发生的亏损，本公众号 及作者概不承担任何责任。 真心请教，不工作以后社保和医保还要不要交？ https://www.jisilu.cn/question/513759 如何从更宏观层面理解目前 ...

常州"技术转移官"驱动成果转化 一年促70余项科技成果落地 中新网常州9月26日电(记者 唐娟)在江苏常州，一批特殊的"技术红娘"正活跃在高校与车间之间，专职 破解"实验室成果"与"生产线应用"之间的转化难题。26日，2025年新质生产力"智"汇常州联盟大会披 露，这一被称为"技术转移官"的制度实施一年来，已成功推动70余项科技成果落地生根，成为常州构建 校地融合创新生态的关键力量。 联盟成立一年间，通过"高校—技术转移官—企业"三方协同机制，有效推动了一批前沿技术对接产业需 求。据统计，联盟累计引进72个优质创新创业项目，推动18个高能级合作平台落地，校地联合攻关37 项，签订产学研合同56份，总金额近1亿元，3000余名高校院所人才借此渠道来常发展。 "技术转移官"制度是其中亮点。常州向多家顶尖高校院所派驻46名专职人员，常态化开展需求对接与项 目牵引。截至目前，他们已累计拜访对接350余场，促成10多个项目签约、20多个意向合作，精准打通 成果转化的"最后一公里"。 2025年新质生产力"智"汇常州联盟大会在常州举行。唐娟摄 "智"汇常州创新创业大赛获奖项目颁奖。唐娟摄 在平台能级方面，天目湖先进储能技 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a state of stagnation, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing minimal fluctuations, resembling a crowded subway during peak hours [1] - There is a significant divergence in market performance, with some sectors surging while others remain flat, indicating a lack of overall market momentum [1][3] Market Sentiment - The market is characterized by a cautious sentiment, with both retail and institutional investors waiting for clearer signals before making moves [3][5] - The current market environment is described as a "pause" where neither buyers nor sellers are willing to take decisive action [1][4] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced approach, holding both stocks and cash, while closely monitoring key signals such as volume near trend lines and external market changes [6] - The focus should be on sectors that are showing signs of recovery, particularly in technology and semiconductor industries, while avoiding overexposure to volatile stocks [4][6] External Influences - The market remains sensitive to external factors, particularly the actions of the Federal Reserve and fluctuations in the currency and commodity markets [4][6] - Recent inflows from foreign capital have been noted, but the overall investment climate remains cautious as investors prepare for potential volatility [3][4]