聚烯烃日报 | 2025-12-26 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为-92.6元/吨（+16.6），PP油制生产利润为-562.6元/吨（+16.6），PDH制PP生产利 润为-819.7元/吨（-10.6）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为40.7元/吨（+198.1），PP进口利润为-316.1元/吨（-14.6），PP出口利润为-16.1美元/吨 （-13.5）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为43.9%（-1.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.2%（-0.7%），PP下游塑编开工率 为43.7%（-0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为63.2%（+0.0%）。 市场分析 PE方面，供应端维持高位，扬子石化、茂名石化等装置计划重启，短期新增计划检修量有限，从现有检修计划看 明年一季度总体检修量级亦不高，且面临巴斯夫50万吨FDPE新装置即将达产释放，供应宽松压力持续；需求端， PE下游进入需求淡季，下游整体开工继续下滑，农膜开工进一步明显下滑，地膜需求驱动仍有限，后期农膜需求 预期继续逐步转弱；包装膜开工亦环比小幅下滑，刚性采购为主，需求支撑减弱。供增需弱格局使得社会库存延 续累积，且LL和LD绝 ...

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格隆汇12月25日丨沃特股份(002886.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，公司目前已有部分牌号LCP材料满足客 户宇航级材料标准。 ...

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2 - Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, with limited upside potential for plastics in the near term due to new capacity additions and the exit of the agricultural film peak season. The L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. Group 3 - Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 25, the restart of maintenance devices at Yangzi Petrochemical increased the plastics operating rate to about 87.5%, at a neutral level. As of the week ending December 19, the downstream PE operating rate dropped 0.55 percentage points to 42.45%, with agricultural film orders and raw material inventory decreasing. The overall downstream PE operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years. Petrochemical de - stocking has accelerated, but inventory is still at a relatively high level in recent years. With an oversupply of crude oil and geopolitical tensions, the rebound of crude oil prices is limited. New plastic production capacity has been put into operation recently. The overall sentiment of bulk commodities has improved, but the supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and some spot prices are weak [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6356 yuan/ton, the highest was 6446 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6390 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.63%. The position increased by 2047 lots to 542399 lots [2]. - Spot: The PE spot market was mostly stable, with price changes between - 50 and + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6200 - 6370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 7700 - 8530 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6550 - 7790 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 25, the restart of maintenance devices at Yangzi Petrochemical increased the plastics operating rate to about 87.5%, at a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week ending December 19, the downstream PE operating rate dropped 0.55 percentage points to 42.45%. Agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory decreasing. Packaging film orders also decreased slightly. The overall downstream PE operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - Inventory: Petrochemical early - morning inventory on Thursday decreased by 80,000 tons to 610,000 tons, 70,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical de - stocking has accelerated, but inventory is still at a relatively high level in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $62/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $725/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $745/ton [4].

证券之星消息，12月25日塑料板块较上一交易日上涨1.54%，神剑股份领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3959.62，上涨0.47%。深证成指报收于13531.41，上涨0.33%。塑料板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 656100 | 平安电工 | 73.03 | -6.80% | 5.17万 | 3.85亿 | | 300586 | 美联新材 | 11.19 | -2.53% | 21.26万 | 2.39亿 | | 300478 | 杭州 高新 | 32.96 | -2.49% | 5.94万 | 1.97亿 | | 301092 | 争光股份 | 37.14 | -2.19% | 4.25万 | 1.58亿 | | 300806 | 斯迪克 | 29.56 | -1.86% | 11.49万 | 3.41 Z | | 301565 | 中仑新材 | 25.02 | -1.57% | 3.64万 | 9123.95万 | | 688087 | 英科里生 | 3 ...

图表：四川省初级形态的塑料产量分月（累计值）统计 2025年8月初级形态的塑料产量分析： 摘要：【图】2025年8月四川省初级形态的塑料产量统计分析 2025年1-8月初级形态的塑料产量分析： 据国家统计局数据，在2025年的前8个月，四川省规模以上工业企业初级形态的塑料产量累计达到了 153.5万吨，与2024年同期的数据相比，下降了7.0%，增速较2024年同期低10.6个百分点，增速较同期 全国低18.6个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业初级形态的塑料产量9707.30625万吨的比重为1.6%。 图表：四川省初级形态的塑料产量分月（当月值）统计 注：初级形态的塑料2004年及以前名称为塑料树脂及共聚物，简称塑料。 从2011年起，我国规模以上工业企业起点标准由原来的年主营业务收入500万元提高到年主营业务收入 2000万元。 产业调研网为您提供更多 石油化工行业最新动态 石油未来发展趋势预测 化工现状及发展前景 日化发展前景趋势分析 润滑油的现状和发展趋势 汽油行业现状与发展趋势 柴油市场现状及前景分析 橡胶市场调研与发展前景 塑料发展现状及前景预测 化妆品市场调研及发展趋势清洁护肤行业监测及发展趋势 ...

【PVC现货】 今日国内PVC粉市场价格走低，主流市场多数下跌15-65元/吨。PVC期货弱势震荡，现货市场一口价报 盘部分小幅下调，高价几无成交支撑，部分实单小幅商谈，基差报盘变化不大，点价成交优势较明显。 下游采购积极性不高，现货市场成交平平。华东主流现汇自提4290-4400元/吨，华南主流现汇自提4350- 4390元/吨，河北现汇送到4200-4300元/吨，山东现汇送到4270-4400元/吨。 【PVC开工、库存】 开工：据卓创资讯（301299）数据显示，本周PVC粉整体开工负荷率为76.12%，环比上周下降2.27个百 分点；其中电石法PVC粉开工负荷率为77.01%，环比下降2.12个百分点；乙烯法PVC粉开工负荷率为 74.06%，环比下降2.61个百分点。 库存：截至12月18日，中国PVC生产企业厂库库存可产天数在5.3天，环比减少2.75%，企业检修及降幅 减轻市场供应，叠加企业高预售交付增加，在库天数环比下降。 【PVC行情展望】 盘面受整体宏观提振走强，但刚需市场表现谨慎，采购积极性欠佳。需求端内外存压，持续低迷，淡季 下硬制品开工低位，软制品相对稳定。成本端支撑预期松动，预期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged. Although the sentiment of bulk commodities has been boosted, the upward space of plastics in the near future is expected to be limited. Due to the recent new plastic production capacity coming on - stream and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On December 24, the number of plastic maintenance devices changed little, with the plastic operating rate remaining at around 86.5%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45% week - on - week as of the week ending December 19. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory continuing to decline. Packaging film orders also decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years, and the destocking is slow. With an oversupply of crude oil and the escalation of the geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela, the rebound of crude oil prices is limited. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the plastic operating rate has increased slightly. The downstream construction has slowed down, demand in the north has decreased, and downstream enterprises' purchasing willingness is insufficient. [1][4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastic 2605 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6284 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6418 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6408 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.99%. The position decreased by 41,207 lots to 540,352 lots [2]. Spot - Most of the PE spot market declined, with the price change ranging from - 150 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6150 - 6370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 7700 - 8530 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6550 - 7740 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 24, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 86.5%, at a neutral level [1][4]. - Demand: As of the week ending December 19, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory continuing to decline. Packaging film orders also decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 690,000 tons week - on - week, 100,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, petrochemical destocking has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to 62 US dollars/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat week - on - week at 725 US dollars/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat week - on - week at 745 US dollars/ton [4].

降趋势。全球PVC供应充足、海外市场竞争激烈，出口提振有限。PVC现实端供需偏弱与预期端"反内卷" 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 支撑博弈，短期预计震荡走势。技术上，V2605关注4470附近前低支撑与4860附近压力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4781 | 43 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1135087 | -739359 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC) ...

四季度以来，国内丙烯腈-丁二烯-苯乙烯共聚物(ABS)价格持续下跌。以华东市场主流牌号0215A为例， 价格已从9月末的9500元(吨价，下同)下探至年内低点的8000元左右。综合来看，由于产能扩张带来的 结构性矛盾短期内难以调和，预计ABS市场价格还将下探。 供应压力增加 2025年ABS行业再度迎来集中扩能周期，二季度裕龙石化、大庆石化新装置率先投放，推动行业上半年 产能突破千万吨级;而下半年扩能节奏进一步加快，7月亿科化学本体法ABS一期22.5万吨/年装置开车， 11月吉林石化40万吨/年乳液法新装置投产、20万吨/年本体法新装置进入投料阶段。 金联创分析师褚彩萍介绍，全年ABS产量预计接近700万吨，比上年增长约27%。在低价货源冲击下， 厂家出货阻力增加。同时，因销售不畅导致ABS厂家库存多高于去年同期水平。值得注意的是，ABS装 置多为一体化配置，行业开工率维持在70%左右的相对高位，进一步加剧了供应端的宽松格局。 丙烯腈市场则在年初触及近三年高点后开启震荡下跌态势，核心原因是产能比去年同期增长超20%，而 下游需求增速仅11.1%，供过于求格局凸显。 丁二烯走势同样疲软，全年价格低于过去十年平 ...