摘要：【图】2025年1-8月上海市初级形态的塑料产量数据分析 同比增长：10.3% 增速较上一年同期变化：高13.6个百分点 据统计，2025年8月上海市规模以上工业企业初级形态的塑料产量与上年同期相比增长了10.3%，达32.9 万吨，增速较上一年同期高13.6个百分点，增速较同期全国低2.5个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业 初级形态的塑料产量1265.70537万吨的比重为2.6%。 详见下图： 图1：上海市初级形态的塑料产量分月（当月值）统计图 2025年1-8月初级形态的塑料产量统计： 初级形态的塑料产量：255.3 万吨 同比增长：11.9% 2025年8月初级形态的塑料产量统计： 初级形态的塑料产量：32.9 万吨 据统计，2025年1－8月，上海市规模以上工业企业初级形态的塑料产量与上年同期相比增长了11.9%， 达255.3万吨，增速较上一年同期低0.6个百分点，增速放缓，增速较同期全国高0.3个百分点，约占同期 全国规模以上企业初级形态的塑料产量9707.30625万吨的比重为2.6%。详见下图： 图2：上海市初级形态的塑料产量分月（累计值）统计图 注：初级形态的塑料2004年及以前名称 ...

长鸿高科发布业绩预告，预计2025年全年归属净利润盈利150万元至200万元，与上年同期相比减少 9,222.29万元到9,272.29万元，同比减少97.88%到98.41%。扣非后净利润预计亏损1500万元至2200万 元，同比减少121.82%到132.00%。业绩下滑主要受市场环境、产品切换、技改停工及财务成本上升等 因素影响。本期业绩预告未经注册会计师审计。 截至2026年1月30日收盘，长鸿高科（605008）报收于14.14元，较上周的14.67元下跌3.61%。本周，长 鸿高科1月26日盘中最高价报14.7元。1月29日盘中最低价报13.52元。长鸿高科当前最新总市值91.34亿 元，在塑料板块市值排名20/72，在两市A股市值排名2209/5184。 本周关注点 业绩披露要点 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 业绩披露要点：长鸿高科预计2025年归属净利润盈利150万元至200万元，同比减少97.88%到 98.41%。 公司公告汇总：公司拟开展原材料期货套期保值业务，任一时点保证金不超过2000万元 ...

徐绍祖（联系人） 投产错配叠加季节性， 逢低做多PP5-9价差 聚烯烃周报 2026/01/31 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号： Z0022675 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 聚乙烯供给端 CONTENTS 目录 07 聚丙烯供给端 02 期现市场 05 聚乙烯库存&进出口 08 聚丙烯库存&进出口 03 成本端 06 聚乙烯需求端 09 聚丙烯需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 聚烯烃周度策略 【行情资讯】 政策端：美联储维持利率不变，符合预期，国际油价反弹。 估值：聚乙烯周度跌幅（期货＞现货＞成本），聚丙烯周度跌幅（货＞现货＞成本）。 成本端：上周WTI原油上涨4.27%，Brent原油上涨4.84%，煤价上涨0.58%，甲醇上涨2.44%，乙烯上涨5.95%，丙烯上涨3.64%，丙烷 上涨0.82%。成本端反弹。 供应端：PE产能利用率81.56%，环比下降-2.19%，同比去年下降-4.13%，较5年同期下降-9.64%。PP产能利用率76.61%，环比上涨 3.74%，同比去年下降-2.56%，较5年同期下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - On January 30, 2026, the restart of the maintenance devices such as Maoming Petrochemical's HDPE led to a rise in the plastics operating rate to around 90%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.77 percentage points to 37.76%. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Driven by low valuation, cold weather and the geopolitical situation in Iran, the plastics market will fluctuate strongly in the short - term. However, the improvement of the supply - demand pattern is limited, so the sustainability of the rebound should be treated with caution. It is expected that the L - PP spread will decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The restart of Maoming Petrochemical's HDPE and other maintenance devices on January 30 increased the plastics operating rate to around 90%, at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased, and the petrochemical inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years. The increase in crude oil prices is due to cold - driven diesel heating demand and the geopolitical situation in Iran. New production capacities of plastics were put into operation in January 2026. The downstream demand is expected to continue to decline, and the L - PP spread is expected to fall [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastics 2605 contract fluctuated with a decrease in positions. The lowest price was 6945 yuan/ton, the highest was 7139 yuan/ton, and it closed at 7014 yuan/ton, up 0.17%. The position volume decreased by 9081 lots to 503743 lots [2]. Spot - The PE spot market showed mixed trends, with price changes ranging from -50 to +100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6820 - 7170 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8600 - 9280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6870 - 8190 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 30, the plastics operating rate rose to around 90% after the restart of Maoming Petrochemical's HDPE and other maintenance devices, at a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week of January 30, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.77 percentage points to 37.76%. Orders and raw material inventory of agricultural films and packaging films decreased slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years [4]. - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Friday decreased by 30,000 tons to 445,000 tons, 115,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose above $69/barrel, and the prices of Northeast Asian and Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $700/ton and $685/ton respectively [4].

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 30 日 LLDPE：进口暂难放量，油价支撑偏强 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 7049 | 1.18% | 630671 | -18370 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -169 | | -167 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -55 | | -48 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6880 | | 6800 | | | | 华东 | 6950 | | 6900 | | | | 华南 | 7030 | | 7000 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货偏强，上游前期库存转移，企业报价企稳反弹，月底代理开单及中游销售较弱。裕龙石化 ...

摘要：【图】2025年1-9月湖南省初级形态的塑料产量数据分析 2025年1-9月初级形态的塑料产量分析： 据国家统计局数据，在2025年的前9个月，湖南省规模以上工业企业初级形态的塑料产量累计达到了 27.0万吨，与2024年同期的数据相比，增长了0.03%，增速较2024年同期高3.5个百分点，增速较同期全 国低11.6个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业初级形态的塑料产量10970.31113万吨的比重为0.2%。 图表：湖南省初级形态的塑料产量分月（累计值）统计 2025年9月初级形态的塑料产量分析： 单独看2025年9月份，湖南省规模以上工业企业初级形态的塑料产量达到了3.4万吨，与2024年同期的数 据相比，9月份的产量增长了8.36%，增速较2024年同期高15.7个百分点，增速较同期全国低2.0个百分 点，约占同期全国规模以上企业初级形态的塑料产量1266.54696万吨的比重为0.3%。 石油化工行业最新动态 石油发展前景趋势分析 化工的现状和发展趋势 日化行业现状与发展趋势润滑油市场现状及前景分析汽油市场调研与发展前景 柴油发展现状及前景预测橡胶市场调研及发展趋势 塑料行业监测及发展趋势 化 ...

Group 1 - The core product introduced by Evonik is a transparent polymer made from recycled plastic, named TROGAMID® R, which is processed from production waste of high-quality optical non-prescription sunglasses [1] - TROGAMID® R is derived from waste material generated during the production of TROGAMID®, a durable transparent polyamide material widely used in high-end eyewear [1] - Poliplastic SRL, in collaboration with Evonik, collects and reprocesses sufficient production waste into pellets for unique eyewear products, showcasing a sustainable circular plastic economy [1][2] Group 2 - The global nylon market is expected to exceed $47 billion, with continuous breakthroughs in applications across various sectors such as new energy vehicles, electronics, and robotics [7] - The upcoming "2026 Advanced Nylon Industry Innovation and Application Development Conference" will focus on technological innovation, application development, and market expansion within the nylon industry [7] - The conference will feature over 300 participants from domestic and international nylon enterprises, including expert discussions and networking opportunities to explore high-quality development paths for the industry [9][10]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The fourth quarter operating EBITDA was $741 million, reflecting a sequential decline due to lower seasonal demand and margin compression across many end markets [4] - The company identified over $6.5 billion in near-term cash support items, delivering more than half in 2025, including accelerated cost savings from a $1 billion cost-out program [4][5] - The cash and cash equivalent balance was above $3.8 billion at the end of 2025, with approximately $14 billion of available liquidity [36] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Packaging and Specialty Plastics segment, fourth quarter net sales were $4.7 billion, with a year-over-year and sequential decrease primarily due to lower downstream polymer prices [8] - The Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure segment reported net sales of $2.7 billion, down 9% year-over-year and 5% sequentially, mainly due to lower local prices and seasonally lower building and construction volumes [10] - The Performance Materials and Coatings segment had net sales of $1.9 billion, a 6% decrease compared to the same period last year, driven by a reduction in local prices [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global polyethylene fundamentals are expected to remain stable heading into 2026, with a net draw in inventory supporting price increases announced for January and February [15] - Housing starts and existing home sales remain below historical averages, but there are signs of positive momentum, with existing home sales increasing for four consecutive months [16] - The demand for industrial applications remains challenged, impacting the overall performance of the Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure segment [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced the "Transform to Outperform" program, aiming for at least $2 billion in near-term EBITDA improvement, focusing on productivity gains and growth [5][21] - Plans to shut down upstream high-cost assets and complete incremental growth investments to serve higher-value markets are in place [5][25] - The Path to Zero project in Fort Saskatchewan has been delayed by two years to align with market recovery, with a focus on maximizing project returns [32][33] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged persistent macroeconomic challenges and trade volatility but emphasized the company's ability to manage internal factors [4] - The outlook for first quarter EBITDA is approximately $750 million, accounting for anticipated margin expansion and seasonal uplift [17] - Management remains focused on maintaining financial flexibility while navigating a challenging macro environment [36] Other Important Information - The company completed a strategic partnership with Macquarie Group, receiving approximately $3 billion for a 49% equity stake in select U.S. Gulf Coast infrastructure assets [36] - A 50% dividend reduction was implemented to support financial flexibility [36] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on capacity curtailments and Alberta project - Management noted that 15%-20% of European capacity is being rationalized and emphasized the importance of the Path to Zero project for future upcycles [45][47] Question: Clarifications on Alberta project timeline and potential partnerships - The two-year delay is confirmed, with no anticipated off-ramps unless extreme scenarios arise; management remains open to value-creating opportunities [51][52] Question: Export market and polyethylene capacity - Approximately 30%-40% of Packaging and Specialty Plastics volumes from North American assets go to the export market; long-term advantages are expected from low-cost positions in the Americas [55][56] Question: Cash flow from operations and expectations for 2026 - Management highlighted a solid cash balance and outlined various actions expected to support cash flow needs in 2026, including cost reductions and growth investments [59][60] Question: Outlook for feedstock costs - Management expressed confidence in the availability and pricing of natural gas and ethane, anticipating stable NGL prices despite short-term fluctuations [75][76]

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年1月29日 【行情分析】 1月29日，检修装置变动不大，塑料开工率维持在89%左右，目前开工率处于中性水平。截至1月 23日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降1.4个百分点至39.53%，农膜订单基本稳定，处于近年同期中性水 平，农膜原料库存基本稳定，包装膜订单小幅回升，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年农历同期偏低位 水平。临近月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。成本端，寒冷天气推动柴 油取暖需求，需求担忧有所缓解，加上伊朗地缘局势升温，原油价格上涨。供应上，新增产能50万 吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）FDPE和30万吨/年的裕龙石化LDPE/EVA在2026年1月投产。近期塑料开工率略有 下降。地膜集中需求尚未开启，温度下降，终端施工放缓，北方需求减少，北方棚膜生产基本停滞， 农膜价格继续稳定，部分行业进入淡季，预计后续下游开工率下降，临近春节放假，节前备货有限， 终端工厂刚需采购为主。低估值、寒冷天气及伊朗地缘局势推动下，化工板块情绪好转，塑料短期 跟随市场情绪偏强震荡，只是塑料供需格局改善有限，现货跟进有限，基差走低，塑料反弹可持续 性谨慎 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 29 日 LLDPE：美金递盘暂少，月底成交平平 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6967 | 0.99% | 626151 | 10434 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -167 | | -149 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -48 | | -31 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华 北 | 6800 | | 6750 | | | | 东 华 | 6900 | | 6850 | | | | 华 南 | 7000 | | 6900 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货偏强，上游前期库存转移，企业报价企稳反弹，月底代理开单及中游销售较弱。标品 ...