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中信期货晨报:国内商品期货涨跌互现,焦煤跌幅居前-20250806
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 05:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, leading to an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July is to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Changes - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4029.6, down 0.68% daily, 2.10% weekly, 0.68% monthly, up 7.77% quarterly, and 2.77% year - to - date. The Shanghai 50 futures and the CSI 500 futures also showed different degrees of decline, while the CSI 1000 futures rose 0.07% daily [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes, with the 10 - year treasury bond futures down 0.05% daily [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, 1.04% weekly. The US dollar intermediate price had a 2 - pip daily increase [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.71, up 0.2 bp daily. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.23, down 14 bp daily [3]. - **Commodities**: In the domestic commodity market, coal rose 1.93% daily, while industrial silicon fell 2.97% daily. In the overseas commodity market, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 67.26, down 3.03% daily [3]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, and hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing market concerns about the US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data in August, the Jackson Hole meeting, and subsequent non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: After the Politburo meeting in July, the overall policy tone focuses on using existing policies more effectively, with relatively few incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the progress of economic negotiations between the US and other economies [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Domestic Assets**: There are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Overseas Assets**: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3.4 Sector and Variety Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options will be volatile, and treasury bond futures will also be in a volatile state [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [6]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of game between peak - season expectations and price - rise implementation, and is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile, with their fundamentals and market sentiments changing [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply disturbances and policy expectations [6]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil supply is increasing, and domestic chemical products are expected to benefit from stable - growth expectations. Most varieties are expected to be volatile, while asphalt and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to decline [8]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [8].
瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20250805
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 09:02
Report Overview - Report Title: Plastic Industry Daily Report 2025-08-05 [1] - Report Date: August 5, 2025 - Researcher: Lin Jingyi (Futures Practitioner Qualification No. F03139610, Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate No. Z0021558) - Assistant Researcher: Xu Tianze (Futures Practitioner Qualification No. F03133092) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - L2509 fluctuated strongly and closed at 7323 yuan/ton. The supply side saw the restart of previously shut - down plants, with last week's PE production up 3.31% to 63.55 million tons and capacity utilization up 2.14% to 81.97%. The demand side had the average downstream product start - up rate up 0.3%, with the agricultural film start - up rate stable. Production enterprise inventory decreased 13.94% to 43.28 million tons, and social inventory increased 2.49% to 57.57 million tons, with low overall inventory pressure. In the short - term, PE production and capacity utilization are expected to rise. In the long - term, new production capacity will increase supply pressure. Demand is weak, and L2509 is under pressure. Technically, pay attention to the support around 7200 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - Futures主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) was 7323, up 44; 1 - month contract was 7387, up 36; 5 - month contract was 7374, up 31; 9 - month contract was 7323, up 44 - Volume was 183396 hands, down 81362; Open interest was 301516 hands, up 1254 - 1 - 5 month contract spread was 13, up 5 - Futures前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) was 325807, up 11056;卖单量 was 342832, up 6077;净买单量 was - 17025, up 4979 [2] Spot Market - LLDPE(7042)均价:华北(日,元/吨) was 7284.35, down 32.61;华东(日,元/吨) was 7367.62, down 17.86 - Basis was 5.35, up 5.39 [2] Upstream Situation - FOB:中间价:石脑油:新加坡地区(日,美元/桶) was 62.75, down 2.13; CFR:中间价:石脑油:日本地区(日,美元/吨) was 584.63, down 19.25 - 乙烯:CFR东南亚:中间价(日,美元/吨) was 831, unchanged; CFR东北亚:中间价(日,美元/吨) was 821, unchanged [2] Industry Situation -开工率:PE:石化:全国(日,%) was 81.09, up 2.12 [2] Downstream Situation -开工率:聚乙烯(PE):包装膜(周,%) was 48.7, up 0.63;管材(周,%) was 28.67, down 0.16;农膜(周,%) was 12.63, unchanged [2] Option Market - 历史波动率:20日:聚乙烯(日,%) was 12.58, up 0.17; 40日:聚乙烯(日,%) was 13.41, up 0.04 - 平值看跌期权隐含波动率:聚乙烯(日,%) was 11.15, up 3.87;平值看涨期权隐含波动率:聚乙烯(日,%) was 11.15, up 3.87 [2] Industry News - From July 25th to 31st, China's polyethylene production was 63.55 million tons, up 3.31% - From July 25th to 31st, the average start - up rate of PE downstream products in China increased by 0.3% - As of July 30th, the sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 43.28 million tons, down 13.94%; As of August 2nd, the social sample warehouse inventory of polyethylene was 57.57 million tons, up 2.49% [2]
暴涨超1400%!刚刚,突破百元大关!
天天基金网· 2025-08-05 03:33
停牌核查之后,上纬新材(688585)今日(8月5日)复牌交易。 | 102.75 | ** 科 | | --- | --- | | +10.68 +11.60% 所属板块▼ 基础化工 > 塑料 +1.07% > | | | 今 开 96.00 最 高 | 105.88 成交量 933.71万股 | | 昨 收 | 92.07 最 低 = 89.73 成交额声 9.00亿 | | 2.31% 市盈 TM ( 446.67 总市值▼ 414.45亿 | 换手率 | 今日A股市场早盘小幅上涨,截至发稿,上证指数上涨0.37%,深证成指上涨0.34%,创业板指上涨 0.31%。 盘面上,地面兵装、航天装备、医疗服务、普钢、消费电子涨幅居前。 热点个股方面,上纬新材股价突破百元大关,一度到105.88元/股,再创历史新高,截至发稿,该股上涨 11.6%,报102.75元/股,总市值414.45亿元,年内涨幅超1400%。 上纬新材8月4日晚间公告,近期公司就股票交易异常波动及严重异常波动的相关事项进行了核查。鉴于相 关核查工作已完成,经公司向上交所申请,公司股票将于8月5日(星期二)开市起复牌。上纬新材的停牌 核查时 ...
亚克力发明者罗姆入选塑料名人堂
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-08-05 02:37
中化新网讯 近日,罗姆集团创始人奥托·罗姆(Otto R hm)博士获追授入选塑料名人堂。2025届名人堂 典礼将于10月7日德国杜塞尔多夫塑料展K展开幕前夕举行。 塑料名人堂旨在表彰那些对国际塑料产业发展具有突出贡献的人士,包括其创新成果至今仍对行业具有 重要影响的先驱者。罗姆集团首席执行官韩博恩(Hans Bohnen)表示:"奥托·罗姆博士入选塑料名人 堂,我们深感荣幸。他主导的亚克力研发是化学史上的重要里程碑之一。而这种开拓精神至今仍深植于 我们的企业基因中。" 记者从该公司了解到,1907年,罗姆博士与商人奥托·哈斯(Otto Haas)联合创立了R hm&Haas公司 (即现今罗姆集团的前身)。之后,哈斯先生于1917年将美国分支机构分拆为独立公司;罗姆则在德国 全身心投入塑料研究等领域。上世纪30年代,罗姆及其研究团队成功开发了聚甲基丙烯酸甲酯 (PMMA),又称亚克力,该材料随后被罗姆公司注册商标。 现在,这种多功能材料仍持续推动着从建筑、汽车工程、工业设计到医疗技术等众多领域的技术进步。 ...
暴涨超1400%!刚刚,上纬新材股价突破百元大关!
证券时报· 2025-08-05 02:07
盘面上,地面兵装、航天装备、医疗服务、普钢、消费电子涨幅居前。 热点个股方面,上纬新材股价突破百元大关,一度到105.88元/股,再创历史新高,截至发稿,该股上涨11.6%,报102.75元/股,总市值414.45亿元,年内 涨幅超1400%。 停牌核查之后,上纬新材(688585)今日(8月5日)复牌交易。 今日A股市场早盘小幅上涨,截至发稿,上证指数上涨0.37%,深证成指上涨0.34%,创业板指上涨0.31%。 此外,停牌核查前后,上纬新材均强调的风险包括:目前公司基本面未发生重大变化、收购方未来十二个月内不存在资产重组计划、公司股票价格脱离当前 基本面的风险、公司外部流通盘较小、公司控制权变更事项仍存在重大不确定性风险等因素。 | 102.75 ** 科 融 L1 | | --- | | +10.68 +11.60% 所属板块▼ 基础化工 > 塑料 +1.07% > | | 今 开 96.00 最 高 105.88 成交量 933.71万股 | | 昨 收 92.07 最 低 89.73 成交额声 9.00亿 | | 换手率 2.31% 市盈 TM ( 446.67 总市值▼ 414.45亿 | 上纬 ...
聚乙烯产业链周报:市场情绪消退,转入偏弱震荡-20250803
Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-03 12:41
市场情绪消退,转入偏弱震荡 中泰期货聚乙烯产业链周报 2025年8月3日 姓名:芦瑞 从业资格号:F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号:Z0013570 联系电话: 18888368717 公司地址:济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话:400-618-6767 公司网址:www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号:证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号(证监许可〔2012〕112) 目录 1 近期市场主要矛盾 4 总结及展望 3 基差及价差 2 聚乙烯产业情况 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 聚乙烯市场情况 投资咨询资格号:证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号(证监许可〔2012〕112) 1、聚乙烯综述 | | | 上周 | 本周 | 周环比 | 下周 | 下下周 | 综述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 产量 | 国产量 | 61.51 | 61.18 | -0.32 | 65.14 | 63.81 | 本周产量小幅度减少,下周装置检修复 产较多,产量可能会继续增加。 | | (万吨) | 检修损失量 ...
每周股票复盘:会通股份(688219)参与私募基金及股份回购进展
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-02 18:50
公司公告汇总 截至2025年8月1日收盘,会通股份(688219)报收于11.75元,较上周的11.87元下跌1.01%。本周,会 通股份7月29日盘中最高价报12.47元。8月1日盘中最低价报11.74元。会通股份当前最新总市值64.68亿 元,在塑料板块市值排名21/72,在两市A股市值排名2532/5149。 本周关注点 会通股份参与认购私募基金份额暨关联交易的进展公告。2025年6月27日,公司参与投资美智二期(广 东)创业投资合伙企业(有限合伙),作为有限合伙人以自有资金出资人民币2,000万元。美智二期基 金资金规模为人民币33,452万元。2025年7月31日,美智二期基金已在中国证券投资基金业协会完成了 备案登记手续,并取得《私募投资基金备案证明》,备案编码为SASG60,管理人为美的创业投资管理 有限公司,托管人为招商银行股份有限公司,备案日期为2025年1月6日,扩募变更完成日期为2025年7 月31日。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理,由AI算法生成(网信算备310104345710301240019号),不构成 投资建议。 公司公告汇总:会通股份参与认购的美智二期基金已完成备案登记 ...
上半年越南自美进口商品金额同比增长24.8%
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-08-02 04:27
Group 1 - Vietnam imported goods worth 8.8 billion USD from the United States in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.8% [1] - The largest category of imports from the U.S. was computers, electronic products, and components, totaling 2.5 billion USD, which is a 35.9% increase and accounts for 29% of total imports [1] - Cotton imports reached 799.4 million USD, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 79.3%, making up 9% of total imports [1] Group 2 - Notable month-on-month increases in import values were observed in several categories, including plastic raw materials (up 48.8%), fruits and vegetables (up 43.7%), wood and wooden products (up 75.5%), precious stones and metals (up 55.4%), and candy and confectionery products (up 690.3%) [1]
宏观面预期改善,聚烯烃或能偏强运行
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 11:53
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the polyolefin industry. 2. Core View In August, with the improvement of both the macro - economic and fundamental aspects, polyolefins are expected to perform strongly [4]. 3. Summary by Section Macro - economic Analysis - **China**: In late June 2025, the broad money (M2) balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. In June, the CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year and fell 0.1% month - on - month, while the PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. From January to June, real estate investment, sales area, and sales volume all declined. With the implementation of relevant policies, the domestic macro - economic outlook is positive [6][8][11]. - **International**: In June 2025, the US CPI rose 0.3 percentage points to 2.7%, and the Eurozone's CPI in April rose 0.1 percentage points to 2%. The US economy remains resilient, and its major trading partners have reached trade agreements with it. After the stabilization of US tariffs, the inflation expectation will improve, and the Fed is likely to cut interest rates, bringing substantial benefits to the international macro - economy [13][17][20]. Fundamental Analysis - **PE**: In July, domestic PE production increased, with the output reaching 272.64 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.48%. The downstream demand decreased, with the average starting rate of downstream industries at 38.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%. The social sample warehouse inventory rose to 56.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.77% [22][25][26]. - **PP**: In July, the supply of PP increased, with a total output of 342.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.53%. The downstream was in the off - season, with the average starting rate of plastic - weaving sample enterprises at 41.58%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.39 percentage points. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.45% month - on - month, while the trader inventory increased by 28.28% month - on - month [30][32][35]. Market Outlook - **PE**: In August, the domestic PE output is expected to be 272.71 million tons, basically the same as in July. The downstream demand is expected to improve, with the overall average starting rate of downstream industries increasing by 2% to 40.3%. The agricultural film industry is expected to enter the reserve stage, and the starting rate is expected to increase by about 5.5%. The average starting rate of PE packaging film is expected to increase by 2.5% [41]. - **PP**: In August, the planned maintenance loss is expected to be 54.996 million tons, and the output is expected to increase by 4.58% to 358.20 million tons. The downstream consumption is at the critical stage of transition from the off - season to the peak season, and there is a chance of improvement in overseas orders [42].
国投安粮安粮观市
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 02:42
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The A-share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. Short-term risk of a pullback after a sharp rise should be vigilant, while the entry of insurance funds in the medium to long term is expected to enhance market stability. [2] - The WTI crude oil main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound, with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. The overall medium to long-term price center of crude oil is moving down. [3] - Gold prices have dropped to a three - week low. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce, and the potential boost to risk aversion sentiment from core PCE data and Sino - US trade negotiations should be monitored. [4][5] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level for silver, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] - Most chemical products such as PTA, ethylene glycol, PVC, PP, plastic, etc. are expected to have short - term volatile operations, with attention to relevant influencing factors such as cost, policy, and market sentiment. [7][8][10][11] - For agricultural products, corn, peanut, and cotton futures prices are expected to be weak in the short term, while egg prices have limited downward space, and soybean meal may have a wide - range shock, and soybean oil may be strong in the short term. [18][19][20][21][25][26] - For metals, most metal products such as copper, aluminum, etc. have complex market situations, and different trading strategies are recommended according to different varieties. [27][28] - For black commodities, stainless steel may have a short - term correction, while hot - rolled coils, rebar, and iron ore may have short - term volatile operations, and coking coal and coke may be strong in the short term. [33][34][35][37][39] Summary by Directory Macro - The Politburo meeting released multiple signals, including activating the capital market, expanding domestic demand, and supporting innovation. The long - cycle assessment mechanism for insurance funds has been implemented, and the proportion of equity investment is expected to increase. The lithium - battery industry's "anti - involution" policy is deepening. [2] - The A - share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. [2] Crude Oil - Summer demand supports oil prices, but OPEC's production increase plan, Fed meetings, and trade negotiations bring instability. The WTI main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. [3] - The IEA has raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 to 2.1 million barrels per day, and OPEC + may increase production in July and August, leading to a relatively weak oil price in the medium to long term. [3] Gold - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and Powell's hawkish remarks reduced the probability of a September rate cut, pushing up the dollar index and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. [4] - Gold prices dropped to a three - week low, but institutional willingness to buy on dips still exists. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce and relevant influencing factors. [4][5] Silver - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and the probability of a September rate cut decreased, suppressing the attractiveness of silver as a non - income asset. Trump's tariff on semi - finished copper indirectly dragged down silver. [6] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] Chemical - **PTA**: The spot price decreased, the processing fee was at a low level, the overall supply was strong and the demand was weak, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation. [7] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply became more relaxed, the inventory was at a low level, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation, with attention to macro - policies. [8] - **PVC**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand improved slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve significantly, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [10] - **PP**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [11] - **Plastic**: The supply increased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply decreased, the demand increased, the inventory decreased, the fundamentals had limited driving force, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [13] - **Glass**: The supply fluctuated slightly, the demand weakened, the inventory decreased, the supply - demand change was limited, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [14] - **Methanol**: The supply increased, the demand had contradictions, the inventory increased, the cost had support but the profit was difficult to sustain, and the futures price was expected to be weak in the short term. [17] Agricultural Products - **Corn**: The global and US yields are at high levels, but the ending inventory has decreased. The domestic market is in a state of alternating old and new grains, and the demand is weak. The futures price is expected to be weak in the short term. [18][19] - **Peanut**: The estimated planting area is expected to increase. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. [20] - **Cotton**: The global and US cotton production and ending inventory are expected to increase. The domestic supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. The cotton price is expected to be weak in the short term. [21] - **Pig**: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may oscillate in the short term. [22] - **Egg**: The production capacity is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the futures price has limited downward space. [24] - **Soybean Meal**: The international price is driven by tariffs and weather. The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price may have a wide - range shock in the short term. [25] - **Soybean Oil**: The international market focuses on weather. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the futures price may be strong in the short term. [26] Metals - **Copper**: The US copper tariff event led to a decline in US copper prices. The domestic support policies are strong, and the copper market has complex game situations. [27] - **Aluminum**: The Fed maintained interest rates, the supply is close to the ceiling, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may be weak in the short term. [28] - **Alumina**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait for macro - guidance. [29] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost provides support, the supply is excessive, the demand is in the off - season, and it is expected to follow the aluminum price and oscillate. [30] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and the price fluctuates greatly due to market sentiment. [31] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is expected to decline, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [32] - **Polysilicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is weakening, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [33] Black - **Stainless Steel**: The cost support is weakening, the supply may decrease, the demand is in the off - season, and it may have a short - term correction. [34] - **Rebar**: The "anti - involution" policy is being implemented, the cost support is weakening, the demand has a slight recovery, and it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [35] - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Similar to rebar, it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [36] - **Iron Ore**: The supply has increased, the demand is supported, the inventory is at a low level, and it may oscillate in the short term. [37][38] - **Coal**: Coking coal supply may shrink, and coke prices may be strong due to cost and demand, but relevant risks need to be monitored. [39]