Group 1 - Mexico plans to increase import tariffs on approximately 1,400 products, including automobiles, toys, steel, textiles, and plastic products, to a range of 10%-50% for countries that have not signed free trade agreements with Mexico, including China [1] - The Chinese government expresses concern that Mexico's tariff increase aligns with the U.S.'s long-standing strategy to contain China and may affect future trade negotiations between Mexico and its North American partners [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce emphasizes the importance of maintaining free trade and multilateralism, stating that unilateral tariff increases by Mexico could harm the interests of relevant trade partners, including China, and negatively impact the business environment in Mexico [1][2] Group 2 - The Chinese government advocates for resolving trade disputes through equal dialogue and negotiation, opposing unilateralism, protectionism, and discriminatory measures [2] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry highlights the mutual benefits of China-Mexico economic cooperation and expresses hope for Mexico to act cautiously and collaboratively with China to promote global economic recovery and trade development [3]

Market Performance - The plastic sector increased by 1.5% compared to the previous trading day, with Shangwei New Materials leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3883.69, up 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12996.38, up 0.13% [1] Top Gainers in Plastic Sector - Shangwei New Materials (688585) closed at 90.01, up 12.57%, with a trading volume of 119,200 shares and a transaction value of 1.036 billion [1] - Hangzhou High-tech (300478) closed at 22.26, up 11.52%, with a trading volume of 184,800 shares and a transaction value of 393 million [1] - Fula New Materials (605488) closed at 34.30, up 10.01%, with a trading volume of 216,700 shares and a transaction value of 718 million [1] Decliners in Plastic Sector - Jundingda (301538) closed at 93.75, down 4.63%, with a trading volume of 40,500 shares and a transaction value of 383 million [2] - Henghe Precision (300539) closed at 37.58, down 3.86%, with a trading volume of 176,700 shares and a transaction value of 666 million [2] - Ruifeng High Materials (300243) closed at 11.78, down 3.68%, with a trading volume of 137,700 shares and a transaction value of 163 million [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The plastic sector experienced a net outflow of 250 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 329 million [2][3] - Major stocks like Jinfatech (600143) had a net inflow of 24.4 million from institutional investors, while Fula New Materials (605488) saw a net inflow of 173 million [3] - Retail investors showed a net outflow in several stocks, including Fula New Materials and Shangwei New Materials, indicating mixed sentiment [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report notes that most commodity futures rose, and small - and mid - cap stock index futures had good gains. In the overseas market, the US labor market shows a clear slowdown trend, and the weak non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut. In the domestic market, the PPI is expected to see a slight increase in the central value, while the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level. Short - term domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the situation is generally favorable for gold. Long - term US fundamentals are fair, and a weak US dollar pattern continues [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4562, up 2.92% daily, 2.37% weekly, 1.24% monthly, 17.40% quarterly, and 16.35% year - to - date. The SSE 50 futures closed at 2990.2, up 1.78% daily, 1.68% weekly, 0.34% monthly, 11.20% quarterly, and 11.66% year - to - date. The CSI 500 futures closed at 7124.6, up 3.81% daily, 3.28% weekly, 1.83% monthly, 21.52% quarterly, and 25.11% year - to - date. The CSI 1000 futures closed at 7387.8, up 3.31% daily, 2.24% weekly, 0.29% monthly, 20.15% quarterly, and 26.32% year - to - date [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.41, up 0.06% daily, 0.02% weekly, - 0.01% monthly, - 0.22% quarterly, and - 0.55% year - to - date. The 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 105.59, up 0.16% daily, 0.00% weekly, 0.07% monthly, - 0.63% quarterly, and - 0.89% year - to - date. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 107.58, up 0.08% daily, - 0.34% weekly, - 0.21% monthly, - 1.24% quarterly, and - 1.23% year - to - date. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 114.74, down 0.02% daily, - 1.38% weekly, - 1.55% monthly, - 4.61% quarterly, and - 3.44% year - to - date [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 97.8433, unchanged daily, up 0.11% weekly, unchanged monthly, up 1.11% quarterly, and down 9.81% year - to - date. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1695, with 0 pips change daily, - 24 pips weekly, 9 pips monthly, - 93 pips quarterly, and 1342 pips year - to - date. The US dollar - yen exchange rate was 147.46, with 0 pips change daily, up 0.03% weekly, up 0.28% monthly, up 2.40% quarterly, and down 6.20% year - to - date [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at $63.75, up 1.56% daily, 2.87% weekly, - 0.41% monthly, - 1.88% quarterly, and - 11.30% year - to - date. ICE Brent crude oil was at $67.6, up 1.61% daily, 2.94% weekly, 0.21% monthly, 1.46% quarterly, and - 9.66% year - to - date. COMEX gold was at $3680.4, up 0.45% daily, 1.12% weekly, 4.67% monthly, 11.02% quarterly, and 39.45% year - to - date [3]. 3.2 Macro Situation - **Overseas Macro**: The US released August non - farm data, with only 22,000 new jobs, lower than the previous value and expectations. The labor market's downward risk has increased, and wage growth has slowed. The number of initial and continued unemployment claims shows that the labor market slowdown is becoming more obvious [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In August, the PPI rebounded from - 3.6% to - 2.9% year - on - year, while the CPI dropped from 0% to - 0.4% year - on - year. The tail - wagging effect had a large impact, and food prices dragged down the CPI. The PPI's month - on - month rebound to 0 and the core CPI's rise to 0.9% indicate that domestic policies are starting to take effect. The PPI central value is expected to rise slightly, and the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level [6]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Short - term**: Domestic assets mainly present structural opportunities. The market sentiment has cooled down after important domestic events this week. In the overseas market, the weak US non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is favorable for gold. - **Long - term**: The US fundamentals are fair, and interest rate cuts are expected to boost the fundamentals. The weak US dollar pattern continues, and investors should be vigilant about volatility spikes and focus on non - US dollar assets [6]. 3.4 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures should adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences; stock index options should continue the hedging and defensive strategy; the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term for Treasury bond futures. All are expected to be in a volatile state [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner, as the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US increases, and the risk of the Fed's loss of independence expands [7]. - **Shipping Sector**: For the container shipping to Europe route, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Steel and iron ore are expected to be volatile, with the impact of production restrictions on steel weakening and iron ore showing an unexpected decline in molten iron production and a slight increase in port inventories [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Despite the "anti - involution" impact, the prices of varieties in this sector are still supported during the peak season. However, most varieties are expected to be in a volatile state, such as coke starting the first - round price cut after the end of military parade - related production restrictions, and the supply of coking coal significantly decreasing [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Affected by the better - than - expected July China's import and export data, non - ferrous metals were initially boosted. However, most varieties are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as copper due to the rising risk of overseas recession [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and coking coal's decline has dragged down the chemical industry. Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as PP due to the increasing pressure of new production capacity [9]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The agricultural market is in a narrow - range volatile state, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, such as livestock products facing a supply - demand imbalance and rubber facing pressure from previous highs [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the stable growth of the main business while actively exploring new opportunities in semiconductors and embodied intelligence [3][6] - The company achieved a revenue of 1.099 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 93 million yuan, an increase of 0.9% [3][4] - The sales gross margin improved to 26.07%, up 0.14 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective product structure optimization [3][4] Group 2 - The report indicates that Sinopec's revenue for H1 2025 was 1.4091 trillion yuan, a decrease of 10.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 21.5 billion yuan, down 39.83% [8][9] - The company achieved a historical high in domestic oil and gas equivalent production, reaching 262.81 million barrels, a year-on-year increase of 2.0% [11][12] - The refining segment faced challenges due to fluctuating international oil prices and declining demand for gasoline and diesel [13][39] Group 3 - The report on Ruihua Tai indicates a revenue of 182 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 37.86%, with a net profit loss of 34 million yuan, showing a reduction in losses [17][18] - The company is gradually ramping up production capacity at its Jiaxing base, with new product development in the semiconductor and renewable energy sectors [21][19] Group 4 - Yanggu Huatai reported a revenue of 1.722 billion yuan in H1 2025, an increase of 2.09% year-on-year, but a net profit decrease of 8.43% [25][26] - The company is actively pursuing the acquisition of Bomi Technology, which specializes in semiconductor materials, indicating a strategic expansion into the electronic chemicals sector [28][29] Group 5 - Xinxiang Chemical Fiber reported a revenue of 3.738 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 1.52% year-on-year, with a significant drop in net profit by 58.58% [32][33] - The company maintains a leading position in the production of biomass cellulose filament, leveraging unique technology to enhance supply chain security [35][36] Group 6 - Hengyi Petrochemical's revenue for H1 2025 was 55.96 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.59% year-on-year, with a net profit of 227 million yuan, down 47.32% [38][39] - The company is set to launch a new nylon project in the second half of 2025, which is expected to strengthen its market position [40][41] Group 7 - Dongfang Shenghong reported a revenue of 60.916 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 16.36% year-on-year, but a net profit increase of 21.24% [43] - The company’s refining segment turned profitable, indicating resilience amid challenging market conditions [43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains the view of overweighting crude oil from last week, believing that the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamentals will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2]. - For methanol, it is expected that the fundamentals will gradually improve, and the market should pay attention to potential long - position opportunities and 1 - 5 positive spread opportunities [4]. - For urea, with weak demand and limited export support, the price is expected to move in a range at a low - valuation level. It is recommended to consider long positions at low prices [6]. - For rubber, the medium - term view is bullish, while the short - term view is neutral. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trades [12]. - For PVC, given the situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation in the domestic market, it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies, but also beware of short - covering rallies [14]. - For benzene ethylene, in the long term, the BZN spread may recover. When the inventory reaches the inflection point of destocking, the price may rebound. It is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [17]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the long term, and the cost has some support [19]. - For polypropylene, it is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [20]. - For PX, with the terminal and polyester data gradually improving, it is recommended to follow the crude oil and go long at low prices when the peak season arrives [22][23]. - For PTA, it is recommended to follow PX and go long at low prices after the terminal performance improves in the peak season [24]. - For ethylene glycol, the short - term valuation is supported by low arrivals, but there is downward pressure on the valuation in the medium term [25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 3.10 yuan/barrel, or 0.64%, at 489.20 yuan/barrel [1]. - **Core View**: The geopolitical premium has disappeared, and OPEC's production increase is minimal. The view that OPEC is conducting a stress test on the market is maintained. The oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamentals support the price. If the geopolitical premium re - opens, the oil price will have more upside [2]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 11, the 01 contract fell 20 yuan/ton to 2387 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 102 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The high - inventory pattern at ports remains unchanged, and the market structure is weak, but most of the negative factors have been priced in. The enterprise profit is good, overseas production is at a high level, and arrivals are increasing, so the supply is sufficient. The port MTO profit is good year - on - year, and there is an expectation of marginal improvement in demand. The port inventory has reached a new high, while the inland enterprise inventory is low year - on - year. The fundamentals are expected to improve gradually [4]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spread opportunities [4]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 11, the 01 contract rose 2 yuan/ton to 1671 yuan/ton, the spot price was stable, and the basis was - 11 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic enterprise inventory is slowly rising, and the overall inventory level is high. The domestic agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the compound fertilizer production has rebounded but is still in the seasonal decline stage. The demand is weak, and export support is limited [6]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to move in a range at a low - valuation level. It is recommended to consider long positions at low prices [6]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated weakly [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The expected rainfall in Thailand in the next 5 - 10 days has decreased, reducing the positive factors. The long - position view is based on seasonal expectations and demand expectations, while the short - position view is due to weak demand, uncertain macro - expectations, and the possibility that supply benefits may be less than expected. The all - steel tire production rate has increased both week - on - week and year - on - year, while the export expectation has declined. The natural rubber social inventory in China has decreased [10][11]. - **Strategy**: The medium - term view is bullish, while the short - term view is neutral. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trades [12]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 31 yuan to 4888 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4680 (+30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 208 (- 1) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 300 (+2) yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost of calcium carbide is stable, and the overall PVC production rate has increased. The downstream production rate has also increased slightly. The enterprise comprehensive profit is at a high level this year, the valuation pressure is large, the maintenance volume is small, and the production is at a historical high. The domestic downstream production is at a five - year low, and the export expectation has weakened after the Indian anti - dumping tax rate is determined [14]. - **Strategy**: Given the situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation in the domestic market, it is recommended to consider short - position opportunities on rallies, but also beware of short - covering rallies [14]. 3.6 Benzene Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened. The BZN spread is at a low level in the same period, with a large upward repair space [16][17]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost of pure benzene production is stable, and the supply is still abundant. The production rate of benzene ethylene has been increasing, and the port inventory has been decreasing significantly. The demand of the three S industries has declined. In the long term, the BZN spread may recover, and the price may rebound when the inventory reaches the inflection point of destocking [17]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [17]. 3.7 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [19]. - **Fundamentals**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost has some support. The spot price is stable, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. The remaining planned production capacity is 400,000 tons, the overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and the demand for agricultural film raw materials has started to stock up, with the overall production rate stabilizing at a low level [19]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the long term [19]. 3.8 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The remaining planned production capacity is 1.45 million tons, with relatively high pressure. The downstream production rate has rebounded seasonally from a low level. Under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [20]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [20]. 3.9 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 8 yuan to 6778 yuan, the PX CFR was flat at 838 US dollars, the basis was 83 (- 11) yuan, and the 11 - 1 spread was 60 (+8) yuan [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The PX production rate is at a high level, the short - term unexpected maintenance of downstream PTA is relatively high, and the overall production rate center is low. However, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, the inventory accumulation of PX is not significant, and the terminal and polyester data are gradually improving. The valuation has limited downward space, but there is no strong upward driving force for PXN currently [22]. - **Strategy**: With the terminal and polyester data gradually improving, it is recommended to follow the crude oil and go long at low prices when the peak season arrives [22][23]. 3.10 PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract fell 10 yuan to 4688 yuan, the East China spot price fell 5 yuan to 4620 yuan, the basis was - 70 (- 7) yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 32 (- 4) yuan [24]. - **Fundamentals**: The PTA production rate has increased, and the downstream production rate has also increased slightly. The terminal production rate is flat. The social inventory has decreased. The spot processing fee and the on - market processing fee have both decreased. The unexpected maintenance volume on the supply side has increased, and the inventory accumulation pattern has changed to destocking, but the processing fee is under pressure. The polyester fiber inventory pressure on the demand side is low, and the downstream and terminal production has improved, but the terminal recovery speed is slow [24]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to follow PX and go long at low prices after the terminal performance improves in the peak season [24]. 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 17 yuan to 4302 yuan, the East China spot price fell 25 yuan to 4414 yuan, the basis was 106 (- 11) yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 48 (- 11) yuan [25]. - **Fundamentals**: The production rate of ethylene glycol has increased, and the downstream production rate has also increased slightly. The terminal production rate is flat. The import arrival forecast is 930,000 tons, and the port inventory has increased. The cost of ethylene is stable, and the coal price has increased. The domestic supply is high, and the port inventory is expected to be low in the short term due to low arrivals, but it will turn to inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter as imports arrive in a concentrated manner and the domestic production rate is expected to remain high [25]. - **Valuation Outlook**: The short - term valuation is supported by low arrivals, but there is downward pressure on the valuation in the medium term [25].

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603879 | 永倪科技 | 6.45 | -4.59% | 22.62万 | 1.46亿 | | 301216 | 万凯新材 | 20.78 | -1.70% | 38.12万 | 7.89亿 | | 002768 | 国恩股份 | 46.91 | -1.68% | 5.86万 | 2.72亿 | | 301565 | 中仑新材 | 25.76 | -1.64% | 10.92万 | 2.81亿 | | 688203 | 海正生材 | 16.29 | -1.45% | 5.41万 | 8732.63万 | | 300995 | 奇德新材 | 53.10 | -1.14% | 5.99万 | 3.13亿 | | 002108 | 沧州明珠 | 4.13 | -0.96% | 76.72万 | 3.17亿 | | 300218 | 安利股份 | 20.51 | -0.58% | 11.24万 | 2.31亿 | | 600135 | 乐凯胶片 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market is under overall pressure due to a bearish fundamental situation, but the downward space is limited as the price is at a historically low level. The V2601 is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support around 4800 [3]. - This week, the production volume and capacity utilization rate of PVC are expected to fluctuate slightly on a week - on - week basis. In the medium to long term, the planned commissioning of 900,000 - ton devices by Bohua, Gansu Yaowang, and Qingdao Gulf in September will increase the industry's supply pressure [3]. - Domestic product orders are insufficient, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase at low prices. The weak terminal real - estate market continues to drag down domestic demand, and the Indian PVC anti - dumping policy is expected to be implemented soon, causing the export market to remain in a wait - and - see mode. The considerable profit of caustic soda weakens the cost support of calcium carbide and ethylene [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4857 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10; the trading volume is 709,598 lots, a decrease of 48,778; the open interest is 1,266,528 lots, a decrease of 25,558. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 150,419 lots, an increase of 15,294 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4985 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4673.46 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.92. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4920 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4771.88 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 670 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The FOB price in Northwest Europe is 690 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC is - 207 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2650 yuan/ton (unchanged), 2606.67 yuan/ton in North China, an increase of 16.67, and 2428 yuan/ton in Northwest China (unchanged). The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 575 yuan/ton (unchanged). The weekly average price of VCM CFR in the Far East is 503 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and 539 US dollars/ton in Southeast Asia (unchanged). The weekly average price of EDC CFR in the Far East is 189 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and 201 US dollars/ton in Southeast Asia (unchanged) [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 77.13%, an increase of 1.11%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 76.73%, a decrease of 0.52%, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 78.14%, an increase of 5.19%. The total social inventory of PVC is 533,000 tons, an increase of 11,100 tons. The total inventory in the East China region is 478,100 tons, an increase of 14,500 tons, and the total inventory in the South China region is 54,900 tons, a decrease of 3400 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.34, a decrease of 0.26. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 35.206 million square meters, an increase of 4.84168 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 6.38731 billion square meters, an increase of 5.40957 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 281.0593 billion yuan, an increase of 36.3043 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 8.48%, an increase of 0.2; the 40 - day historical volatility is 20.25%, a decrease of 0.05. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options of PVC is 15.15%, a decrease of 0.48 [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On September 10, the spot price of East China PVCSG5 remained stable compared with the previous day, ranging from 4620 to 4730 yuan/ton [3]. - From August 30 to September 5, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.11% [3]. - As of September 4, the social inventory of PVC increased by 2.44% week - on - week to 918,200 tons. The V2601 fluctuated slightly and closed at 4857 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the restart of previously shut - down devices drove a 1.46% week - on - week increase in PVC production last week to 660,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 1.11% week - on - week to 77.13%. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 0.9% week - on - week to 43.5%, among which the operating rate of pipes decreased by 0.13 to 33.48% week - on - week, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 4.21% week - on - week to 38.39%. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of PVC increased by 2.44% week - on - week to 918,200 tons [3].

塑料产业日报 2025-09-10 失量预计上升，然考虑到埃克森美孚50万吨LDPE装置的投产预期，行业供应压力难有改善。棚膜进入旺季 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ ，农膜订单陡峭回升；包装膜需求受国内中秋、国庆与海外圣诞备货驱动，订单仍有增长空间。库存压力 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 不大，预计维持去化趋势。成本方面，OPEC+10月增产较为温和，中东地缘恶化短期给到国际油价一定支 撑。L2601短期预计小幅震荡，技术上关注7200附近支撑与7300附近压力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 ...

Market Overview - The plastic sector experienced a decline of 0.3% on September 10, with Qide New Materials leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3812.22, up 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12557.68, up 0.38% [1] Top Performers in the Plastic Sector - Dongcai Technology (601208) saw a closing price of 18.04, with a significant increase of 7.89% and a trading volume of 729,000 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 1.291 billion [1] - Wankai New Materials (301216) closed at 21.14, up 6.88%, with a trading volume of 371,800 shares and a transaction value of 762 million [1] - Jiangsu Boyun (301003) closed at 36.82, up 5.38%, with a trading volume of 31,800 shares and a transaction value of 115 million [1] Underperformers in the Plastic Sector - Qide New Materials (36600E) closed at 53.71, down 8.81%, with a trading volume of 67,100 shares and a transaction value of 370 million [2] - Dadongnan (002263) closed at 4.14, down 5.48%, with a trading volume of 2,613,900 shares and a transaction value of 1.093 billion [2] - Jinfatech (600143) closed at 17.53, down 4.26%, with a trading volume of 2,258,200 shares and a transaction value of 400.5 million [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The plastic sector experienced a net outflow of 876 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 754 million [2] - Major stocks like Dongcai Technology had a net inflow of 1.07 billion from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 36.06 million [3] - Wankai New Materials had a net inflow of 1.09 million from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 3.04 million from retail investors [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory levels. The overall industry pattern is deteriorating, facing double pressure from significant capacity growth and continuous decline in real - estate demand. In the short term, there are opportunities for short - selling on rallies, but it is necessary to guard against the return of anti - internal competition sentiment. In the medium term, without policies to clear out outdated production capacity, the supply - demand pattern will remain weak, and the industry may need to reduce valuations to clear out excess capacity [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton month - on - month; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2730 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton month - on - month; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 660 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton month - on - month. Chlor - alkali integrated profit remains high, while ethylene - based profit declines, and overall valuation support is weak [11]. - **Supply**: PVC capacity utilization rate is 77.1%, up 0.3% month - on - month. Among them, calcium carbide method is 76.7%, up 0.7% month - on - month; ethylene method is 78.1%, down 0.9% month - on - month. Last month, maintenance volume decreased, and new device production was released, increasing supply pressure. This month, maintenance is expected to further decrease, and there are new device commissioning plans, so supply pressure will still be large [11]. - **Demand**: In July, exports to India rebounded due to the extension of BIS certification and anti - dumping. However, the final anti - dumping tax rate for India has been announced and is expected to be implemented in about a month, which will likely lead to a decline in exports. The overall downstream load is 43.5%, up 1.5% month - on - month, but still lower than the same period last year, and overall demand is weak. The key for the demand side is whether exports can exceed expectations [11]. - **Inventory**: At the end of the month, factory inventory is 31.6 tons, with a month - on - month de - stocking of 3 tons; social inventory is 91.8 tons, with a month - on - month inventory build - up of 19.6 tons; overall inventory is 123.4 tons, with a month - on - month inventory build - up of 16.6 tons; warehouse receipts continue to increase. Currently in the inventory build - up cycle, if exports do not exceed expectations, inventory build - up will continue [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The document mainly presents multiple charts related to the PVC futures and spot market, including PVC term structure, spot basis, 1 - 5 spread, active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume, but no specific text analysis is provided [15][16][23]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: Overall inventory has significantly increased. Factory inventory and social inventory trends are shown through charts, and the overall inventory is in a build - up state [31][37]. - **Profit**: Chlor - alkali integrated profit in Shandong using purchased calcium carbide, calcium carbide - based PVC profit, ethylene - based PVC profit, and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide profit trends are presented through charts, showing that the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a high level this year, with relatively large valuation pressure [41]. 3.4 Cost Side Calcium carbide prices are fluctuating and rising, and inventory is increasing. The document also presents price trends of raw materials such as Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke, 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, liquid chlorine in Shandong, Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price, etc., but no specific text analysis is provided [47][48][50]. 3.5 Supply Side - In 2025, the capacity release of PVC is relatively large, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. A total of 250 tons of new capacity is expected to be put into production, including multiple projects using calcium carbide method and ethylene method [58][65]. - In August, PVC maintenance was relatively less, and the operating rate in September is expected to remain high. The operating rates of calcium carbide method, ethylene method, and overall PVC are presented through charts [66]. 3.6 Demand Side - The operating rates of downstream industries such as PVC pipes, films, and profiles are presented through charts, showing that the overall downstream operating rate has slightly rebounded but is still lower than the same period last year, and overall demand is weak [75]. - PVC export volume, export volume to India, pre - sales volume, and the relationship between China's housing completion area and new construction area are presented through charts. The key for the demand side is whether exports can exceed expectations. After the implementation of India's anti - dumping tax rate, export expectations are expected to weaken [77][80][82].