1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The polyolefin market has limited improvement in its supply - demand pattern currently, but due to the chemical industry's anti - involution expectations, the Middle East situation increasing polyolefin costs and affecting imports, and the gradual resumption of production by downstream factories after the Spring Festival, polyolefin prices are expected to rebound. It is also suggested to exit the position of narrowing the L - PP spread and wait and see [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Plastic and PP开工率: Plastic开工率 has dropped to around 92%, a neutral - high level; PP企业开工率 has dropped to around 80%, a neutral - low level [3]. - New production capacity: In January 2026, BASF (Guangdong) FDPE with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons and Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA with an annual capacity of 300,000 tons were put into production. There are no plans for new polyolefin production capacity to be put into operation in the first quarter of 2026 [3]. - Planned maintenance in March: There are limited newly planned maintenance devices in March [3]. - Downstream开工率: As of the week of February 27, the PE downstream开工率 decreased by 1.58 percentage points to 18.22% compared to before the Spring Festival holiday; the PP downstream开工率 decreased by 5.04 percentage points to 36.74% compared to before the Spring Festival [3]. - Petrochemical inventory: During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons and is currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [3]. - Cost: Due to the military conflict in the Middle East, oil prices have risen significantly, which has a significant boosting effect on polyolefins [3]. - L - PP spread: The L - PP spread has continued to decline, but after the US attacked Iran, the sharp rise in oil prices and the obstruction of PE exports from Iran have had a greater impact on PE. The L - PP spread has fallen to a low level, and it is recommended to exit the position of narrowing the spread and wait and see [3]. 3.2 Market Review There is information about the daily K - lines of plastic 2605 contract and PP 2605 contract, as well as the spot price, basis trend, production,开工率, import and export, downstream situation, inventory, and profit of plastics and PP in the report, but no clear summary content for the "Market Review" section is provided. 3.3 Plastic - Basis: In February, the decline of spot prices was less than that of futures prices, and the basis rose to a neutral - low level [14]. - Production: In January 2026, PE maintenance volume decreased by 3.20% month - on - month to 425,900 tons and increased by 59.45% year - on - year; PE production increased by 1.67% month - on - month to 3.059 million tons and increased by 9.50% year - on - year [25]. -开工率: In January 2026, PE开工率 increased by 0.28 percentage points to 83.83% month - on - month and decreased by 2.84 percentage points year - on - year. Recently, the plastic开工率 has dropped to around 92%, a neutral - high level [29]. - Import and export: In December 2025, China's PE import volume was 1.3299 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.62% and a month - on - month increase of 25.21%; the export volume was 92,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 58.30% and a month - on - month increase of 7.27%. The net import volume was 1.2378 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.04%. It is expected that the net import volume of LLDPE will continue to decline in 2026 [42]. 3.4 PP - Basis: The PP basis also increased and is at a neutral - low level [20]. - Production: In January 2026, PP maintenance volume increased by 17.12% month - on - month to 831,800 tons and increased by 48.22% year - on - year; PP production decreased by 3.354% month - on - month to 3.4387 million tons and increased by 5.50% year - on - year [32]. -开工率: In January 2026, PP开工率 decreased by 2.46 percentage points to 75.36% month - on - month and decreased by 2.94 percentage points year - on - year. Currently, the PP企业开工率 has dropped to around 80%, a neutral - low level, and the production ratio of standard grade drawstring has dropped to around 25% [36]. - Import and export: In December 2025, China's PP import volume was 332,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.28% and a month - on - month increase of 9.02%; the export volume was 267,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.80% and a month - on - month increase of 4.04%. It is expected that the net import of PP will continue to decline [48]. 3.5 Polyolefin Downstream - Production and export of plastic products: From January to December 2025, the cumulative production of plastic products was 79.1991 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%; the export amount was 748.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3% [52]. - Downstream开工率: As of the week of February 27, the PE downstream开工率 decreased by 1.58 percentage points to 18.22% compared to before the Spring Festival holiday; the PP downstream开工率 decreased by 5.04 percentage points to 36.74% compared to before the Spring Festival [56]. 3.6 Polyolefin Inventory During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons. As of February 27, the early petrochemical inventory was flat at 870,000 tons, 40,000 tons lower than the same period last lunar year, and is currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [60]. 3.7 Polyolefin Profit In February, the profits of all LLDPE production processes declined, with the coal - based and ethylene - based processes still showing positive profits; all PP production processes were still in losses, but the loss of the oil - based process narrowed [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March 2026, polyolefins are likely to be strongly boosted by geopolitical tensions. As the second quarter is the peak demand season for polyolefins, they are expected to perform strongly in the future [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro - level China - In January 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of broad money M2 reached 9%, a two - year high. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [7]. - In January 2026, the national consumer price index rose 0.2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The ex - factory price of industrial producers decreased 1.4% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, and rose 0.4% month - on - month [9]. - The latest macroeconomic data shows that monetary easing is intensifying. The improvement in PPI indicates better demand and the initial success of the national anti - involution policy, which is conducive to improving corporate profits and demand. With continuous loose policies, the domestic macro - level is expected to continue its recovery [11][12]. International - In January 2026, the US CPI decreased 0.3% from the previous month to 2.4%. In December 2025, the Eurozone CPI decreased 0.1% from the previous month to 2%. The Eurozone faces greater economic recession pressure with lower inflation. The relatively low inflation in Europe and the US is conducive to further interest rate cuts to boost the economy [13]. - In January 2026, the US manufacturing PMI rose 4.7 percentage points to 52.6%, and the unemployment rate decreased 0.1% to 4.3%. Although the decline in US inflation is conducive to interest rate cuts, the improvement in manufacturing PMI and the decrease in unemployment rate reduce the urgency of the Fed to cut interest rates, but it is still likely to continue the easing cycle [15][17]. - The sudden attack by the US and Israel on Iran has led to a tense situation. Iran has counter - attacked, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has banned ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC + may consider further increasing production, but the main problem may be transportation. If Iran disrupts the supply through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices may soar, which will strongly boost polyolefins [18][19][20]. Fundamental - level PE - In February 2026, polyethylene supply decreased. The capacity utilization rate was 87.63%, a 3.79 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, and the output was 290.67 tons, a 4.98% decrease from the previous period, mainly due to 3 fewer production days [20]. - In February 2026, polyethylene downstream demand declined. Affected by the Spring Festival, the overall downstream industry's average opening rate was 21.6%, a 18.26 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. The average opening rate of the PE packaging film industry was 26.04%, a 20% decrease from the previous month, and the overall opening rate of the agricultural film decreased 18.3% month - on - month [23]. - In February 2026, the social inventory of polyethylene increased. The social sample warehouse inventory at the end of February was 59.78 tons, a 11.28 - ton increase from the previous month, a 23.26% increase. During the Spring Festival, production enterprises maintained high - load production while downstream factories were on holiday, leading to passive inventory accumulation [25]. - In February 2026, due to the Spring Festival, polyethylene supply and demand both decreased, and inventory increased. The price was generally weak. The average price of low - pressure film was 7463 yuan/ton, a 0.27% increase from the previous month; the average price of high - pressure film was 8543 yuan/ton, a 3.52% decrease from the previous month; the average price of linear film was 6871 yuan/ton, a 0.16% increase from the previous month [27]. PP - In February 2026, PP supply decreased. The total output of polypropylene was 311.52 tons, a 32.85 - ton decrease from January 2026, a 9.54% decrease. There was no new capacity put into operation, and the overall production enterprise opening rate changed little. The total output decreased due to 3 fewer days in the month [28]. - In February 2026, PP downstream demand declined. The apparent consumption of polypropylene decreased 9.74% month - on - month. The opening rates of injection molding, modification, BOPP, and pipes decreased significantly, with decreases of 21.29%, 15.02%, 10.29%, and 10.29% respectively. The average opening rate of downstream industries was 39.14%, a 13.43 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month [29]. - In February 2026, both the inventory of PP production enterprises and traders increased. At the end of February 2026, the inventory of production enterprises was 73.99 tons, an 84.56% increase from the end of the previous month. The inventory of traders was 24.97 tons, a 36.15% increase from the end of the previous month. The Spring Festival led to inventory accumulation and low downstream purchasing enthusiasm [32]. - In February 2026, affected by the Spring Festival, PP also showed a situation of decreased supply and demand and increased inventory. But boosted by the positive macro - outlook, the market was in high - level consolidation. The national average price of drawn wire was 6654 yuan/ton, an 185 - yuan/ton increase from the previous month, a 2.86% increase [35]. Market Outlook PE - In March 2026, the domestic capacity utilization rate of polyethylene is expected to decrease 2.41% month - on - month, and the total supply will increase 6.7% month - on - month. On the demand side, the opening rates of traditional downstream industries such as packaging film and agricultural film are expected to gradually recover, and exports are expected to increase 61.9% month - on - month. The total demand is expected to increase 8% month - on - month. Overall, supply pressure will be relieved, demand will moderately recover, and the polyethylene market price is expected to rise slightly [36]. PP - In March 2026, polypropylene enters the traditional peak demand season of "Golden March and Silver April". Supply and demand will shift from surplus to tight balance, but the concentrated inventory reduction and the late resumption of work in downstream factories compared to upstream lead to a low negative value of the supply - demand gap. In March, the output of polypropylene will increase rapidly month - on - month, and with continuous inventory reduction pressure, imports will increase. However, as exports enter the peak season, it is expected to continue the net export trend. In March, consumption in all downstream fields of polypropylene will increase, and demand will dominate the market trend [36]. - From April to May, as polypropylene enters the seasonal maintenance peak season, supply pressure will weaken. Demand will continue to improve, and the inventory of polypropylene is expected to be smoothly reduced in the second quarter. The negative value of the supply - demand gap will reach the peak of the year, which is expected to strongly support the market price [36].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【PVC 周报（PVC ）】 宏观情绪回落，盘面价格回调 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-03-02 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 PVC:宏观情绪回落，盘面价格回调 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | （1）本周国内PVC现货市场窄幅调整，尚未有产能退出，供大于求格局短期难改，供给压力偏大。（2）本周PVC生产企业产能利用率在82.08%环比增加 0.01%，同比增加3.43%；其中电石法在81.61%环比减少0.27%，同比减少1.44%，乙烯法在83.20%环比增加0.66%，同比增加16.12%。（3）本周PVC生产 | | | | 企业检修损失量在3.87万吨，较上期下降0.285万吨。本周常规检修略有减少，检修损失量环比上周下降6.86%。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | （1）下游需求进入淡季， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For LLDPE, due to intensified geopolitical conflicts, the disk price is expected to rise. In the short - term, the disk has no obvious driving force and is expected to be mainly volatile [2]. - For PP, due to intensified geopolitical conflicts, the disk price is expected to rise. In the short - term, the disk has no obvious driving force and is expected to be mainly volatile [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 LLDPE Analysis 3.1.1 Supply - China's polyethylene production is 72.94 tons, a 0.54% decrease from last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 87.95%, a 0.48 - percentage - point decrease from last week. There are new maintenance plans for Qilu Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical this week, and no restart of existing maintenance devices [2]. 3.1.2 Demand - The average operating rate of downstream products of Chinese LLDPE/LDPE has decreased by 0.9% compared with the previous period. The overall operating rate of agricultural films has decreased by 1.0%, and the operating rate of PE packaging films has decreased by 0.8%. The average operating rate of downstream products of Chinese polyethylene has decreased by 1.6%. The overall operating rate of agricultural films has decreased by 14.6%, the operating rate of PE pipes has decreased by 5.8%, the operating rate of PE packaging films has increased by 4.4%, the operating rate of PE hollow products has decreased by 5.3%, the operating rate of PE injection molding has increased by 0.7%, and the operating rate of PE drawing has remained the same. The cumulative import volume in 2025 is 13.407 million tons, a 3.21% year - on - year decrease. In December 2025, China's polyethylene import volume is 1.3299 million tons, a 4.62% year - on - year increase and a 25.21% month - on - month increase [2]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 579,700 tons, a 236,000 - ton increase from the previous period, a 68.66% month - on - month increase, and the inventory trend has changed from decreasing to increasing. The inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses is 597,800 tons, an 81,580 - ton increase from the previous period, a 15.80% month - on - month increase, and a 2.51% year - on - year decrease. The inventory of Chinese polyethylene imported goods warehouses has increased by 8.86% month - on - month and decreased by 7.11% year - on - year [2]. 3.1.4 Basis - The current basis of the main contract is around - 14, with the disk at a premium [2]. 3.1.5 Profit - The costs of oil - based, coal - based, ethylene - based, methanol - based, and ethane - based production have increased by 117, 53, 43, 59, and 403 yuan/ton respectively compared with the previous period. There are positive factors in the international crude oil market, such as OPEC+ suspending production increases, the US - Iran war, and the continuation of US sanctions on oil - producing countries [2]. 3.1.6 Valuation - The absolute spot price is low, and the main contract is at a discount [2]. 3.1.7 Macro - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and there is a risk of rising international oil prices. The macro sentiment is warm, and the RMB is appreciating [2]. 3.2 PP Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - This week, the domestic polypropylene production is 779,400 tons, a 0.34 - ton decrease from last week, a 0.43% decrease; a 30,500 - ton increase from the same period last year, a 4.07% increase. The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene this period is 75.49%, a 0.33% month - on - month decrease; the capacity utilization rate of Sinopec is 80.42%, a 0.83% month - on - month decrease [3]. 3.2.2 Demand - This week, the average operating rate of the domestic polypropylene downstream industry has increased by 8.49 percentage points to 36.74%. The return - to - work rate of employees in downstream factories has increased, production lines have gradually restarted, and the industry has switched from the Spring Festival shutdown state to the production mode. The demand for woven bags for goods packaging and transportation has increased, and the replenishment demand for injection molding, modified PP and other industries has increased. The demand for food, daily chemical, and pharmaceutical packaging has steadily recovered [3]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The inventory of Chinese polypropylene traders' sample enterprises has increased by 73,000 tons compared with the previous period, a 41.32% month - on - month increase. The inventory of Chinese polypropylene production enterprises is 739,900 tons, a 348,700 - ton increase from the previous period, an 89.14% month - on - month increase. The inventory of Chinese polypropylene port samples has increased by 15,700 tons compared with the previous period, a 21.54% month - on - month increase [3]. 3.2.4 Basis - The current basis of the main contract is around - 61, with the disk at a premium [3]. 3.2.5 Profit - This week, the profit of oil - based PP has declined, while the profits of coal - based, methanol - based, externally - purchased propylene - based, and PDH - based PP have recovered. The average international oil price has increased this week, and the profit of oil - based PP has declined to - 734.14 yuan/ton. In the thermal coal market, the resumption of production in domestic main production areas after the festival has been slow, and the thermal coal price has risen slightly under the tight supply situation. However, the increase is less than the price of coal - based PP, and the coal - based profit has slightly recovered to - 159.80 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2.6 Valuation - The absolute spot price is low, and the main contract is at a premium [3]. 3.2.7 Macro Policy - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and there is a risk of rising international oil prices. The macro sentiment is warm, and the RMB is appreciating [3]. 3.3 Main Weekly Data Changes - PP futures price is 6,611 yuan/ton, a 0.65% increase from last week; PE futures price is 6,597 yuan/ton, a 0.71% decrease from last week. PP spot price is 6,550 yuan/ton, a 1.50% decrease from last week; LLDPE spot price is 6,550 yuan/ton, a 2.67% decrease from last week [5]. - PP production is 1 (the data may have an error here), a 30.47% increase; PE production is 730,000 tons, a 0.54% decrease. HDPE production is 320,000 tons, a 0.41% decrease [5]. - PP operating rate is 23.7%, a 9.18% increase from last week; PE operating rate is 87.95%, a 0.54% decrease from last week [5]. - PP factory inventory is 53,691 tons, a 153.44% increase from last week; PE social inventory is 779,500 tons, a 0.41% increase from last week. HDPE social inventory is 20,900 tons, a 19.22% increase from last week [5]. - PP warehouse receipts are 21,531 lots, a 24.50% increase from last week; PE warehouse receipts are 9,428 lots, unchanged from last week [5].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - For LLDPE, crude oil risks are intensifying, and upstream supply may contract. PE cost is rising due to geopolitical tensions affecting logistics and increasing the price of naphtha. There is an expected improvement in post - holiday demand for mulch films, and the packaging film industry is expected to recover after the Lantern Festival. The fundamental contradictions are currently not significant, but attention should be paid to inventory accumulation during the holiday and the post - holiday destocking rate [1][2] - For PP, C3 raw materials may have pulses, and the reduction in PDH device production continues. The cost of C3 is strongly supported due to supply disruptions from Saudi Arabia and Iran, and PDH maintenance is still high. There is no new production before the 2605 contract, intensifying the game of existing supply and demand. The overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices under deep losses [1][2] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **LLDPE (L2605)**: The previous day's closing price was 6597, with a daily decline of 1.06%, trading volume of 565011, and an increase in positions of 15671. The 05 - contract basis was - 167, and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 75. Spot prices in North, East, and South China were 6430, 6500, and 6630 yuan/ton respectively, showing a downward trend compared to the previous day [1] - **PP (PP2605)**: The previous day's closing price was 6611, with a daily decline of 0.96%, trading volume of 484965, and a decrease in positions of 16989. The 05 - contract basis was - 111, and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 16. Spot prices in North, East, and South China were 6470, 6500, and 6670 yuan/ton respectively, also lower than the previous day [1] 2. Spot News - For PE, the linear production ratio remained stable. For PP, Zhejiang Petrochemical changed its production, and the drawing production ratio dropped from the holiday high to a neutral level. After the decline in futures prices, trading improved, but the loosening of upstream quotes limited the strengthening of the basis. Low - priced supplies from the Middle East and the US will arrive at ports in early March, but downstream buying is limited [1] 3. Market Condition Analysis - **LLDPE**: Geopolitical tensions over the weekend affected the logistics of oil tankers, increasing the cost of PE. There is an expected improvement in post - holiday demand for mulch films, and the packaging film industry is expected to recover after the Lantern Festival. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang has achieved mass production, the number of maintenance plans in February has decreased, and some FD has switched back to standard products. The fundamental contradictions are currently not significant [2] - **PP**: C3 cost is strongly supported by supply disruptions from Saudi Arabia and Iran, and PDH maintenance is still high. There is no new production before the 2605 contract, intensifying the game of existing supply and demand. Downstream demand follows up with rigid orders, and the overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited. PDH devices in South China have maintenance expectations due to deep losses, and attention should be paid to their marginal changes [2] 4. Trend Intensity - LLDPE trend intensity: 1; PP trend intensity: 2 [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided about the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Views - The Middle East situation has become tense due to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, leading to a sharp increase in market risk - aversion sentiment, which has a significant impact on the prices of precious metals, energy, and other commodities [1]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, some commodities are affected by supply disruptions, while others are influenced by demand changes and inventory levels [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On Friday night, international gold prices denominated in London gold rose 1.8% to $5277 per ounce, and international silver prices denominated in London silver rose 6.28% to $93.82 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The conflict in the Middle East has increased risk - aversion sentiment. The US PPI has increased more than expected, the US Treasury bond prices have risen, and the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond has fallen below 4.0%. There are changes in the inventory of gold and silver in various markets [1]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is expected that the domestic market will open higher today. Gold is recommended to hold long positions, and silver is recommended to reduce long positions and wait and see [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated and trended slightly stronger yesterday [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The conflict between the US and Iran has led to an increase in gold and oil prices and a stronger US dollar. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the visible global inventory has increased rapidly [1]. - **Trading Strategies**: Temporarily wait and see [1]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.02% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 23,745 yuan per ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate has increased slightly [1]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is expected that the electrolytic aluminum price will maintain a slightly stronger fluctuating trend. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, overseas capacity changes, and the inventory reduction rhythm after domestic downstream resumption of work [1]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 2.70% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 2744 yuan per ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Alumina plants have both maintenance and resumption of production, and the operating capacity continues to decline. Electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short term, the spot circulation of alumina is tight, and the price is stable with a slight increase. In the future, the upward driving force of the alumina price still requires substantial production cuts on the supply side or the implementation of anti - involution policies [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8395 yuan per ton, an increase of 60 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 0.72% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces increased by 2 last week. Both weekly warehouse receipts and social inventories increased slightly. The production of polysilicon and the output of the silicone industry have increased [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: The market is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 8600. If the duration of large - factory production cuts is limited, short positions can be considered at high prices [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 176,040 yuan per ton, an increase of 2380 yuan, with a closing price increase of 1.37% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of lithium concentrate and lithium carbonate has decreased. The production and demand in March are expected to increase compared with January. The inventory is expected to be reduced in Q1 [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: The impact of the US - Iran conflict on lithium is expected to be small. The short - term price increase is mainly restricted by demand concerns, while the low inventory and increased inventory reduction support the price to oscillate at a high level [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 46495 yuan per ton, an increase of 180 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 0.39% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The weekly production is flat, and the industry inventory has increased by 3.5% this week. The downstream prices are stable, and the production schedules of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in March have recovered [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Affected by factors such as the reduction of spot quotes by leading manufacturers, the expected resumption of production in March, and the unresolved position limit, the market sentiment is pessimistic. It is expected that the short - term market will maintain a weak oscillation between 45000 - 53000 yuan [2]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices rose significantly on Friday [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The market is worried about the supply disruptions in Myanmar and Congo. The downstream demand is good, and the global visible inventory has increased slightly after the Spring Festival [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is recommended to hold long positions [3]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 rebar contract closed at 3074 yuan per ton, an increase of 14 yuan per ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The steel spot market trading has not yet picked up, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The demand for building materials is expected to be weak, and the supply has decreased significantly year - on - year. The demand for plates is stable, and the inventory level is still high [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for RB05 is 3040 - 3100 [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 iron ore contract closed at 745.5 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3.5 yuan per ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of iron ore is neutral. The molten iron output has increased slightly month - on - month and is basically the same year - on - year. The steel mill profit is poor, and the subsequent blast furnace output may decrease slightly. The port inventory has increased year - on - year, and there is a structural contradiction [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 740 - 770 [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 coking coal contract closed at 1078 yuan per ton, a decrease of 6.5 yuan per ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The steel mill profit is poor, and the subsequent blast furnace output may decrease slightly. The first round of price increase has been implemented, and there is no subsequent price increase plan. The inventory in each link is differentiated, and the overall inventory level is neutral. The 05 contract futures are at a premium to the spot [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Close long positions. Aggressive investors can try to short the 2605 coking coal contract. The reference range for JM05 is 1050 - 1110 [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose last Friday [5]. - **Fundamentals**: There is an expected bumper harvest in South America. The US soybean crushing is strong, and the export expectation is strong. The global supply - demand is expected to be more relaxed [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: US soybeans are strong. Pay attention to the US soybean export and the realization of South American production. The domestic market is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term but lacks upward driving force in the medium term [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices continued to strengthen, and corn spot prices continued to rise [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain sales progress has exceeded 60%, but the progress is slow. The downstream inventory is low, and the downstream is in a loss state. The spot price is still dominated by the producing area [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: The deep - processing industry replenishes inventory, and the futures price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger [6]. Fats and Oils - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil fell last Friday [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The expected production in Malaysia in February decreased month - on - month, and the export also decreased month - on - month. It is expected to enter the seasonal production increase period later [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Fats and oils are in a weak cycle. Trade the expected seasonal production increase, but there may be a short - term rebound driven by a sharp increase in crude oil. Use the reverse spread structure. Pay attention to the subsequent production and biodiesel policy [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices oscillated in a narrow range, and egg spot prices were stable [6]. - **Fundamentals**: After the Spring Festival, it is the traditional off - season for egg demand. The overall supply is sufficient, and egg prices are expected to run at a low level [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: The demand is weakening, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices oscillated in a narrow range, and spot prices mostly fell [6]. - **Fundamentals**: According to the seasonal pattern, the supply pressure after the Spring Festival is large, and the demand is in the off - season. The futures and spot prices are expected to run weakly [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: Due to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the low - price spot quotation of LLDPE in North China rose by 50 - 80 yuan per ton, and the market trading volume increased [7]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no new device put into production in the first half of the year, and some existing devices will undergo spring maintenance. If Iran's supply is interrupted, the import volume to China will decrease. The current downstream demand is weak but is improving month - on - month [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short term, the inventory in the industrial chain has accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the basis is weak. It is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term, and the upward space is limited by the import window. Pay attention to the development of the US - Iran incident [7][8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: v05 closed at 4803, an increase of 0.2% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: PVC is suppressed by high inventory and is still oscillating at the bottom. The supply is large, and the demand from downstream factories has not recovered. The social inventory has reached a new high [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply is balanced and the demand is weak, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The CFR China price of PX is $932 per ton, and the East China spot price of PTA is 5155 yuan per ton, with a spot basis of - 63 yuan per ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of PX is at a high historical level, and the supply of PTA has increased to a high level. The polyester factory load is at a seasonal low, and the comprehensive inventory pressure is not large [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: The geopolitical conflict has little impact on the fundamentals. The mid - term long - allocation view of PX remains unchanged. Pay attention to buying opportunities. PTA has a seasonal inventory increase, and the mid - term supply - demand pattern is improving. The processing fee has reached a high level, and it is appropriate to take profits [8]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 closed at 1050, a decrease of 0.1% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass is restricted by high inventory, and the price is hovering at the bottom. The supply has decreased significantly, and the inventory has accumulated again. The downstream demand is weak, and the glass production is in a loss state [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply is decreasing and the demand is weak, and the valuation is very low. It is recommended to buy glass and sell soda ash [8]. PP - **Market Performance**: Due to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the spot price of PP in East China rose by 50 yuan per ton, and the overall market trading was okay [8]. - **Fundamentals**: In the short term, the new device put - into - production in the first half of the year has decreased, and some devices have stopped unexpectedly. The domestic supply is gradually increasing, and the export window is open. The downstream is still on holiday, and the start - up rate is low [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short term, the inventory in the industrial chain has accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the basis is weak. It is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term, and the upward space is limited by the import window. In the medium - to - long - term, the new devices put into production in the first half of the year have decreased, and the supply - demand pattern has slightly improved but the contradiction is still large. It is mainly in a range - bound oscillation, and it is recommended to short at high prices [8]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The East China spot price of MEG is 3621 yuan per ton, with a spot basis of - 80 yuan per ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: If Iran's MEG supply is in short supply, it will have a greater impact on the MEG price. From March, MEG devices will have more maintenance, and the polyester demand will pick up, and MEG will start to reduce inventory [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: The inventory increase has been fully expected, and inventory reduction may start in March. The current valuation is at a low level, and with geopolitical disturbances, it is recommended to continue to hold long positions [9]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Due to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the outer - market price rose about 7% on Monday morning, and SC is expected to open at the daily limit [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Iran's crude oil production is 3.3 million barrels per day, and the export volume is 1.8 million barrels per day. The conflict may lead to the paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz, which will have a significant impact on oil prices. OPEC has sufficient idle capacity to deal with Iran's supply interruption. OPEC+ will hold a meeting on Sunday to formulate a production plan for April [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: The current core of crude oil trading is the Middle East geopolitical risk. It is not recommended to directly participate in futures trading. Enterprises worried about rising oil prices can buy out - of - the - money call options at low prices, and enterprises worried about oil prices falling after rising can buy out - of - the - money put options at high prices [9]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main EB contract rose slightly by 80 yuan per ton on Saturday, and the spot market quotation in East China was 7700 yuan per ton, with a general trading atmosphere [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The pure benzene inventory is at a normal - to - high level during the Spring Festival. The supply - demand pattern of pure benzene and styrene will improve in the second and third months, but the overall contradiction is still large. The styrene inventory has accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand is weak in the second and third months and will improve in the second quarter [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: In the short term, the pure benzene inventory is at a high level, and the supply - demand has marginally improved. It will follow the cost (crude oil) to rise. The styrene inventory has accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the basis is stable. In the short term, the supply - demand is weak in the second and third months, but it will follow the cost (crude oil) to rise due to the impact of the Iran geopolitical event. The upward space is limited by the import window. In the medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to go long on styrene at low prices in the second quarter [9][10]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 closed at 1189, an increase of 0.2% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The bottom price of soda ash is in a stalemate, and the upstream orders are okay. The supply is large, and the inventory has increased slightly. The downstream demand from photovoltaic glass is stable, and there is still an expectation of production reduction in float glass [10]. - **Trading Strategies**: The supply is increasing and the demand is weak, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to short at high prices [10].

Group 1 - Internal support exists, but external disturbances are increasing, leading to heightened market volatility. The internal environment is supported by the upcoming "Two Sessions" and the release of the "14th Five-Year Plan," which indicates a warm policy tone, but there is no significant fundamental support yet. Externally, the likelihood of a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve in March is high, and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East add to the disturbances. Therefore, in the absence of significant support, market volatility is expected to increase in March [2][3][14][20] - The internal liquidity situation shows marginal changes, with no significant need for comprehensive interest rate cuts. The monetary policy is expected to remain stable, and the probability of a comprehensive rate cut in March is low. The current financing costs are at acceptable levels, reducing the urgency for broad rate cuts [20][27] - The domestic demand remains under pressure, with weak performance in consumption and real estate. The expected cumulative year-on-year growth for retail sales in January-February is around 4.4%, while fixed asset investment is projected to grow by only 0.2%. The real estate sector is particularly struggling, with a year-on-year decline of 9.0% [4][27][40] Group 2 - Short-term focus should be on construction starts and price increase premiums, while the long-term core position remains with the AI industry chain. The market has shown resilience despite fluctuations, with cyclical industries leading the gains. The construction sector is expected to benefit from seasonal opportunities, particularly in ten strong sectors and a selected group of 18 advantageous stocks [5][45][46] - The first main investment line is the seasonal opportunity for construction starts, which is currently unfolding. The report emphasizes ten strong sectors, including engineering consulting services, environmental equipment, and specialized engineering, which have historically shown high returns during this period [45][47][48] - The second main investment line focuses on the clear long-term price increase trends in sectors like machinery, chemicals, and storage. The machinery sector is benefiting from improved demand, while the chemical sector is expected to see further demand growth as the industry cycle begins to improve [46][48] - The third main investment line is the AI industry chain, which remains a core focus for the long term. Despite potential short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for the AI sector is positive, with expectations for further growth in subsequent phases of the industry cycle [46][48]

Group 1 - The demand for PEEK materials is expected to surge due to lightweight requirements and superior physical properties, making it a potential substitute for metals in various industries such as automotive, medical, and robotics [2][8][11] - The global PEEK market is projected to grow from $721 million in 2019 to $1.226 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.8% [21][22] - In China, PEEK demand is forecasted to expand at a CAGR of 16.82% from 2022 to 2027, potentially reaching around 5,079 tons by 2027 [2][21] Group 2 - The production of PEEK involves high technical barriers, including the need for consistent product quality and a long verification cycle, which can take up to 7 years [4][50] - The core raw material for PEEK, fluorocarbon, accounts for over 50% of production costs, and domestic prices for PEEK are approximately one-third of international prices [3][42][44] - The production process requires specialized equipment, with some components still reliant on imports, indicating a need for domestic manufacturing capabilities [3][4] Group 3 - Major domestic companies in the PEEK market include Zhongyan Co., New Han New Materials, and Zhongxin Fluorine Materials, with Zhongyan being the fourth largest PEEK producer globally [5][6] - Companies like Baihehua and Hanjian Heshan are diversifying into the PEEK sector, indicating a growing interest in this high-performance material [5][6] - The competitive landscape shows that while foreign companies dominate the market, domestic players are beginning to establish a foothold, capturing over 10% of the market share [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The domestic PVC market is currently characterized by strong supply and weak demand. The overall fundamentals are poor, with domestic demand being weak and unable to reverse the pattern of oversupply. Although there is a short - term boost in exports due to the rush to export before the cancellation of export tax rebates, there is significant pressure on exports in the medium term. The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a neutral level, but the supply reduction is limited, and downstream domestic demand has not fully recovered from the off - season [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is reported at 2,250 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 300 yuan; Shandong calcium carbide price is reported at 2,780 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 165 yuan; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 735 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan. The integrated profit of chlor - alkali has recovered, while the profit of ethylene - based production has declined, and the current valuation is neutral [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 82.1%, unchanged from the previous week. Among them, the utilization rate of calcium carbide - based production is 81.7%, a 0.3% week - on - week decrease; the utilization rate of ethylene - based production is 83.2%, a 0.7% week - on - week increase. The supply side has changed little overall last week and remained at a high level. It is expected that the load will decline slightly next week. Although some enterprises may start spring inspections in March, due to the high absolute load level, the supply pressure is still expected to be large [11]. - **Demand**: In terms of exports, the export tax - rebate policy is planned to be cancelled on April 1st, and the short - term has entered a stage of rushing to export. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries are gradually recovering from the Spring Festival holiday. The load of pipes is 13.6%, a 13.6% week - on - week increase; the load of films is 26.4%, a 26.4% week - on - week increase; the load of profiles is 11.3%, an 11.3% week - on - week increase; the overall downstream load is 17.1%, a 17.1% week - on - week increase. Last week, the pre - sales volume of PVC was 780,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons from the previous week [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 504,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous week; the social inventory was 1.353 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous week; the overall inventory was 1.857 million tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from the previous week; the number of warehouse receipts decreased seasonally [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The report presents multiple charts related to the PVC futures and spot market, including the term structure, East China SG - 5 price, spot basis, 5 - 9 spread, active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [15][16][19]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: The report shows multiple charts of PVC inventory, including in - factory inventory, ethylene - based in - factory inventory, calcium carbide - based in - factory inventory, social inventory, the sum of factory and social inventory, and warehouse receipts, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [31][36][37]. - **Profit**: The report shows multiple charts of PVC profit, including the comprehensive profit of Shandong's externally - purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali integration, calcium carbide - based profit, ethylene - based profit, and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide profit, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [42]. 3.4 Cost Side - Calcium carbide prices have weakened significantly. Wuhai calcium carbide price and Shandong calcium carbide price have decreased week - on - week. The report also shows charts of calcium carbide inventory, calcium carbide operating rate, semi - coke price, 32% liquid caustic soda price, liquid chlorine price, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [45][46]. 3.5 Supply Side - The report shows the historical trend of PVC production capacity, the PVC production capacity put into operation in 2025, the raw materials consumed by the new production capacity, and the operating rates of PVC, calcium carbide - based PVC, and ethylene - based PVC. In 2025, a total of 2.5 million tons/year of new PVC production capacity was put into operation, including both calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based processes [55][59]. 3.6 Demand Side - The operating rates of PVC's three major downstream industries (pipes, films, and profiles) are gradually recovering. The export volume of PVC and the export volume to India are also presented, as well as the pre - sales volume of PVC. There is also a chart showing the rolling cumulative year - on - year change in China's housing completion area, which is related to PVC demand. The export tax - rebate policy cancellation has led to a short - term rush to export [69][77][83].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The plastics market is experiencing an oscillatory downward trend. The supply-demand pattern of plastics has limited improvement, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to combat involution. Attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption of production after the Spring Festival, which is currently slow. Due to the recent commissioning of new plastic production capacity, a higher operating rate compared to PP, and the fact that the concentrated demand for mulch film has not yet begun, continue to narrow the L - PP spread [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 27, the number of overhauled plants changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 92%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week of February 27, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.58 percentage points to 18.22% compared to before the Spring Festival. The overall downstream operating rate of PE declined seasonally during the Spring Festival, and the downstream has not fully resumed. Petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons during the Spring Festival. The early - morning petrochemical inventory on Friday remained flat at 870,000 tons compared to the previous day, 40,000 tons lower than the same period of last year's lunar calendar, and is at a neutral level compared to previous years. The cost side is affected by the US - Iran negotiations, and crude oil prices are fluctuating significantly. There are new production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA put into operation in January 2026 [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastics 2605 contract increased in positions and oscillated downward, with a minimum price of 6,553 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,641 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,597 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 2.08%. The position increased by 15,671 lots to 566,078 lots [2] Spot - Most of the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 150 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,470 - 6,920 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,230 - 8,860 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,800 - 7,940 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: On February 27, the number of overhauled plants changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 92%, at a moderately high level. - Demand side: As of the week of February 27, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.58 percentage points to 18.22% compared to before the Spring Festival. The overall downstream operating rate of PE declined seasonally during the Spring Festival, and the downstream has not fully resumed. - Petrochemical inventory: It increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons during the Spring Festival. The early - morning petrochemical inventory on Friday remained flat at 870,000 tons compared to the previous day, 40,000 tons lower than the same period of last year's lunar calendar, and is at a neutral level compared to previous years. - Raw material end: The Brent crude oil 05 contract rose above $71/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $705/ton compared to the previous period, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $685/ton compared to the previous period [4]