Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - The polyolefin market continued to decline, with weak demand. The market returned to fundamental trading. The overall operating rate increased as previously shut - down plants resumed operations and there were few planned shutdowns. New production capacity was continuously released, leading to a significant increase in supply. The upstream inventory was transferred downstream, with a slight decrease in producers' inventory and an increase in intermediate - link inventory. The cost - side support was weak, while the demand side was slowly rising as it entered the seasonal demand transition period [3]. Summary by Directory I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures related to this section include the plastic futures main contract trend, LL East China - main contract basis, polypropylene futures main contract trend, and PP East China - main contract basis [10][13] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - For PE, the operating rate was 80.5% (+1.9%), and the oil - based production profit was 218.2 yuan/ton (+111.1). For PP, the operating rate was 79.9% (-0.3%), the oil - based production profit was - 361.8 yuan/ton (+111.1), and the PDH - based production profit was - 253.7 yuan/ton (-102.2) [1][21][27] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - This section involves price differences such as HD injection - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, etc. [32][39][40] IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit was - 246.2 yuan/ton (+34.0), PP import profit was - 586.2 yuan/ton (+14.0), and PP export profit was 35.9 US dollars/ton (+3.6) [1] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 20.2% (+2.7%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 50.5% (+0.9%), PP downstream woven bag operating rate was 42.7% (+0.4%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.4% (+1.0) [2] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - The report does not provide specific inventory data analysis, but mentions that upstream inventory was transferred downstream, with a slight decrease in producers' inventory and an increase in intermediate - link inventory [3] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: Reverse spread of 01 - 05 - Cross - variety: Long L - P [4]

Group 1: Methanol and Polyolefins Overall - The report is a methanol polyolefins morning report from the energy and chemical team of the research center on September 5, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Methanol Market - The trading logic is that port pressure is transmitted to the inland. The inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment from Lianhong, but ports will cause continuous backflow impact. The current price is based on inland prices, and the inland situation is crucial later [2] - Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Backflow can relieve port pressure but will affect inland valuation. Currently, valuation and inventory are average, and the driving force is weak. It's necessary to wait before bottom - fishing [2] - Import variables include India's purchase of Iranian products and unplanned maintenance [2] Group 3: Polyethylene Market - Two - oil inventory is neutral year - on - year. Upstream two - oil and coal chemical industries are destocking, social inventory is flat. Downstream raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is about - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China [3] - External markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increment for now. Non - standard HD injection molding prices are stable, other spreads are volatile, and LD is weakening [3] - September maintenance is flat compared to the previous month. Recently, domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotations. New device pressure in 2025 is large, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [3] Group 4: Polypropylene Market - Polypropylene upstream two - oil and mid - stream are destocking. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard spreads are neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year [3] - Non - standard spreads are neutral. European and American markets are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is volatile, and powder production start - up is stable. Drawstring production scheduling is neutral [3] - Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Current downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to have a slightly excessive supply pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [3] Group 5: PVC Market - The basis of 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream start - up is seasonally weak, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating [3] - Summer seasonal maintenance of northwest devices has a load center between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. Pay attention to production commissioning and export continuity in Q4. Near - term export orders have slightly declined [3] - Coal sentiment is positive, blue - carbon cost is stable, and calcium carbide profit is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Pay attention to whether subsequent export orders can support high - level caustic soda. PVC comprehensive profit is - 100 [3] - Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, cost is stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro situation is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is mainly in a narrow - range oscillation. The overall operating rate has increased due to the resumption of previously shut - down units and fewer planned shutdowns. New production capacity is continuously being released, leading to a significant increase in supply. There is pressure on the supply side as upstream inventory is transferred downstream, with a slight decrease in producers' inventory and an increase in mid - stream inventory. The cost - side support is weak, while the demand side is slowly rising but lacks new orders in the short term [3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures related to the plastic futures main contract trend and the LL East China - main contract basis are presented, as well as those for the polypropylene futures main contract trend and the PP East China - main contract basis [9][12] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 78.7% (+0.0%), and PP operating rate is 80.2% (+2.0%). PE oil - based production profit is 202.8 yuan/ton (- 112.4), PP oil - based production profit is - 377.2 yuan/ton (- 112.4), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 76.1 yuan/ton (- 78.3) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Spread - Figures show the price differences between HD injection - LL East China, HD blow - molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawn East China, and PP homopolymer injection - drawn East China [29][36][37] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit is - 260.1 yuan/ton (- 110.1), PP import profit is - 600.1 yuan/ton (- 50.1), and PP export profit is 32.4 US dollars/ton (+6.2) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 17.5% (+2.9%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 49.6% (- 0.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.3% (+0.3%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (- 0.3%) [2] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream inventory is transferred downstream, with a slight decrease in producers' inventory and an increase in mid - stream inventory, indicating certain pressure on the supply side [3] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: Long L - P [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market shows a narrow - range downward trend. The restart of previously overhauled devices and new capacity releases lead to an obvious increase in supply. The supply side has certain pressure as upstream inventory transfers downstream, with a slight decrease in producers' inventory and an increase in mid - stream inventory. The cost - side support is weak, and the demand side is slowly rising but lacks new orders in the short term, resulting in limited upward - driving force [3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7270 yuan/ton (-17), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6965 yuan/ton (-9). The LL North China spot price is 7180 yuan/ton (-50), the LL East China spot price is 7190 yuan/ton (-110), and the PP East China spot price is 6850 yuan/ton (-50). The LL North China basis is -90 yuan/ton (-33), the LL East China basis is -80 yuan/ton (-93), and the PP East China basis is -115 yuan/ton (-41) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 78.7% (+0.0%), and PP operating rate is 80.2% (+2.0%). PE oil - based production profit is 315.2 yuan/ton (+17.8), PP oil - based production profit is -324.8 yuan/ton (+17.8), and PDH - based PP production profit is 2.2 yuan/ton (-59.9) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Not elaborated in the content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit is -150.0 yuan/ton (-20.6), PP import profit is -550.0 yuan/ton (-50.6), and PP export profit is 26.2 US dollars/ton (+6.3) [2] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 17.5% (+2.9%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 49.6% (-0.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.3% (+0.3%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (-0.3%) [2] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream inventory transfers downstream, producers' inventory decreases slightly, and mid - stream inventory accumulates [3] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: Long L - P [4]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic polypropylene (PP) market experienced a slight rebound in late August due to supply-side reform news, but overall fundamentals remain weak, leading to a month-on-month decline in price levels for August [1][6]. Supply Side - The supply side saw a reduction in maintenance efforts with the restart of facilities such as Quanzhou Guoheng, Guangdong Petrochemical, Langgang Petrochemical, and Jingbo Petrochemical. Additionally, new capacity from CNOOC Dasha was steadily released, resulting in a relatively abundant supply in the PP front market, which increased supply pressure [3]. - Upstream companies maintained a strong willingness to sell, with price reductions being a common strategy to stimulate transactions, further exerting pressure on PP prices [3]. Demand Side - In August, there was no significant improvement in new orders from downstream PP sectors, with limited increases in operating rates. Specifically, the average operating load for plastic weaving sample enterprises was 41.67%, up 0.67 percentage points month-on-month; injection molding sample enterprises had an operating load of 44.33%, up 0.93 percentage points; while BOPP film sample enterprises saw a decrease to 57.92%, down 1.28 percentage points [6]. - Overall, most enterprises experienced limited order improvements, with cautious procurement focused on low-price essential replenishment, indicating insufficient support from the demand side for the PP market [6]. Future Outlook - Despite the anticipated continued growth in PP supply, there is hope that the traditional demand peak in September ("Golden September") may lead to a substantial improvement in end-consumer demand, potentially raising the price levels in the PP market [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report There is no clear core viewpoint presented in the given content. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - The document presents a table of PVC - related data including percentages and numerical values, but specific interpretations are not clear from the data alone [3] - A PVC main weekly data summary table shows various PVC - related data such as prices, production,开工率, inventory, and cost - profit data, along with their changes compared to the previous week [4] PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes - There are descriptions and charts related to PVC futures and spot market quotes, including price ranges, basis, and price differences between different contracts [6][7][8] PART THREE: PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Multiple charts show historical data related to PVC supply - demand fundamentals such as production,开工率, inventory, and price differences over different time periods from 2019 - 2025 [16][18][19] - Charts also display data on related factors like VCM CIF prices, export prices, and their historical trends [78][80][81]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - **Methanol**: Port inventories are significantly accumulating, with high imports and current inventories. The inland supply is expected to return, and the traditional demand will enter the peak season later. Attention should be paid to whether the demand can support after the inland supply returns. If the inventories deteriorate significantly, methanol is likely to see a valuation decline [1]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventories of the two major oil companies are neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are destocking, while social inventories remain flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventories are neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price differentials are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in September is flat compared to the previous month, and the recent domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotations, as well as the new device commissioning in 2025 [5]. - **Polypropylene**: The upstream inventories of the two major oil companies and the mid - stream inventories are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price differential is neutral, and the markets in Europe and America are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are more PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be eased to a neutral level [5]. - **PVC**: The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - pick - up basis is - 480. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The mid - upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. The summer seasonal maintenance of Northwest devices has a load center between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability. The recent near - end export orders have slightly declined. The coal market sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. The PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From August 22 to August 28, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2297 to 2235, a decrease of 62; the South China spot price decreased from 2290 to 2259, a decrease of 31; the Lunan converted - to - futures price decreased from 2505 to 2505 (no change); the Southwest converted - to - futures price remained at 2480; the Hebei converted - to - futures price remained at 2525; the Northwest converted - to - futures price decreased from 2678 to 2655, a decrease of 23; the CFR China price decreased from 263 to 261, a decrease of 2; the CFR Southeast Asia price remained at 322; the import profit remained unchanged; the main - contract basis decreased from - 5 to - 140, a decrease of 135; the MTO profit on the futures market remained at - 1237 [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From August 22 to August 28, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 842. The North China LL price remained at 7230; the East China LL price decreased from 7365 to 7350, a decrease of 15; the East China LD price remained at 9625; the East China HD price remained at 7550; the LL US dollar price remained at 860; the LL US Gulf price remained at 840; the import profit remained at - 162; the main - contract futures price decreased from 7380 to 7358, a decrease of 22; the basis decreased from - 160 to - 140, an increase of 20; the two - oil inventory remained at 73; the warehouse receipts remained at 7669 [5]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From August 22 to August 28, 2025, the Shandong propylene price increased from 6500 to 6550, an increase of 50; the Northeast Asia propylene price remained at 760; the East China PP price decreased from 6955 to 6920, a decrease of 35; the North China PP price decreased from 7003 to 6983, a decrease of 20; the Shandong powder price remained at 6830; the East China copolymer PP price decreased from 7202 to 7190, a decrease of 12; the PP US dollar price remained at 865; the PP US Gulf price remained at 980; the export profit remained at - 20; the main - contract futures price decreased from 7038 to 7020, a decrease of 18; the basis remained at - 90; the two - oil inventory remained at 73; the warehouse receipts remained at 14055 [5]. PVC - **Price Data**: From August 22 to August 28, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2350; the Shandong caustic soda price remained at 887; the calcium - carbide - based East China price decreased from 4840 to 4780, a decrease of 60; the ethylene - based East China price remained at 5500; the calcium - carbide - based South China price remained at 5450; the calcium - carbide - based Northwest price remained at 4500; the imported US dollar price (CFR China) remained at 710; the export profit remained at 525; the Northwest comprehensive profit remained at 356; the North China comprehensive profit remained at - 244; the basis (high - end delivery product) remained at - 160 [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None [3] Core View - New capacity such as the 450,000 - ton/year PP new device of CNOOC Ningbo Daxie Petrochemical Phase II Line 2 has been put into production, intensifying the abundant supply situation. The operating rate of PP inventory devices remained flat month - on - month, and the inventory in upstream and mid - stream decreased slightly. The number of PE maintenance devices increased, slightly alleviating the supply pressure, but the overall operating rate was still high, and production enterprises had inventory accumulation and de - stocking pressure. International oil prices showed a weak trend, oil - based production profits were acceptable, propane prices rose slightly, and PDH - based PP profits were near the break - even point. Downstream demand recovered slowly, agricultural films entered the seasonal demand conversion stage, overall order follow - up was slow, and terminal operating rates recovered slightly [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The report shows the plastic futures main contract trend and the LL East China - main contract basis, as well as the polypropylene futures main contract trend and the PP East China - main contract basis [8][11] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 78.7% (- 5.5%), PP operating rate was 78.2% (+ 0.3%). PE oil - based production profit was 384.7 yuan/ton (+ 130.5), PP oil - based production profit was - 175.3 yuan/ton (+ 130.5), PDH - based PP production profit was 64.2 yuan/ton (+ 38.5) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - The report presents price differences such as HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, etc. [27] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit was - 26.9 yuan/ton (+ 12.1), PP import profit was - 519.2 yuan/ton (+ 32.4), PP export profit was 31.9 US dollars/ton (- 4.0) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 14.5% (+ 0.7%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 49.9% (+ 0.8%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 42.0% (+ 0.6%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 60.7% (- 0.5%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The report shows inventory data of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports [74][80][84]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The price of polypropylene futures 2601 contract rebounded after reaching a low of 6970 yuan/ton, driven by optimistic macroeconomic expectations [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish signals at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference have increased market expectations for a rate cut in September, with a 91.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut [1] - The financial market is also betting on two rate cuts by the end of the year, indicating a significant shift in monetary policy outlook [1] Group 2: Cost Factors - Geopolitical premiums have decreased, and cost factors for polypropylene are weakening, particularly due to stabilizing domestic coal prices while crude oil prices lack upward momentum [2] - Recent diplomatic efforts between the US and Russia regarding the Ukraine conflict have contributed to a reduction in geopolitical risks, further impacting oil prices [2] - The oil market is shifting focus to an oversupply situation, which is putting additional pressure on crude oil prices and weakening cost support for polypropylene [2] Group 3: Production and Supply - Polypropylene production has seen a slight increase due to the resumption of operations at facilities like Zhejiang Petrochemical and Guangdong Petrochemical, with an average capacity utilization rate of 78.22% [3] - Domestic polypropylene production reached 78630 tons last week, a week-on-week increase of 320 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 118400 tons, reflecting a growth rate of 17.73% [3] - Despite delays in new production facilities, the overall trend indicates a potential for continued recovery in polypropylene production [3] Group 4: Demand and Market Conditions - Demand for polypropylene remains weak, with downstream consumption not meeting expectations, leading to price declines as companies reduce inventory [4] - The average operating rate in downstream industries is generally increasing, but some companies are halting operations due to insufficient orders, particularly in the BOPP sector [4] - The overall market sentiment is improving due to macroeconomic factors, but the reality of weak demand and rising supply pressures suggests that polypropylene futures may stabilize in a fluctuating manner [4]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on polyolefins (plastic PP) dated August 27, 2024, prepared by the Commodity Research Institute's Energy and Chemicals Research Department [2] - The report includes relevant data, market analysis, trading strategies, and relevant charts [3][5][11] Group 2: Relevant Data Plastic and PP Futures and Spot Prices - Plastic futures prices (L2605, L2509, L2601) decreased by -0.62%, -0.50%, -0.51% respectively; PP futures prices (PP2605, PP2509, PP2601) decreased by -0.44%, -0.37%, -0.35% respectively [4] - Spot prices of North China linear and East China linear decreased by -0.41% and -0.27% respectively; North China drawstring and East China drawstring decreased by -0.15% and -0.43% respectively [4] Basis and Spread - Plastic 09, 01, 05 basis increased by 7, 8, 16 respectively; PP 09, 01, 05 basis decreased by -4, -5, 1 respectively [4] - Plastic 9 - 1 spread increased by 1, 1 - 5 spread increased by 8; PP 9 - 1 spread decreased by -1, 1 - 5 spread increased by 6 [4] Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil main contract price increased by 0.01%; naphtha price increased by 1.27%; Northeast Asian ethylene price increased by 1.20%; Shandong propylene price remained unchanged [4] Profits - Plastic import profit decreased by 5.82%, oil - made PE profit increased by -627.48%; PP import profit decreased by 2.76%, oil - made PP profit increased by -28.44% [4] Production Ratios - Linear production ratio remained unchanged at 36.1%, PE maintenance ratio remained unchanged at 14.1%; PP drawstring production ratio and maintenance ratio data were unavailable [4] Group 3: Market Analysis Market Review - In the plastic spot market, prices in North China, East China, and South China showed partial declines or fluctuations; in the PP spot market, prices in North China, East China, and South China decreased [6] Relevant Information - Main producers' inventory was 70.5 tons, a decrease of 2.5 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 3.42%; inventory in the same period last year was 72 tons [7] Logical Analysis - New plastic production capacity will slow down in the second half of the year, while PP will face the launch of a 900,000 - ton new device in Ningbo Daxie Phase II, with greater production pressure than PE [9] - Inventory maintenance is expected to decline significantly in the fourth quarter; there is still an expectation of peak - season demand in "Golden September and Silver October", downstream start - up has rebounded, but the current pace is slow, and orders are weaker year - on - year [9] - Plastic is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, while PP will be range - bound [9] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Single - side: Plastic is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, while PP will be range - bound [10] - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines [11] - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [11] Group 5: Relevant Charts - The report includes 18 charts showing the price trends, basis, spreads, upstream prices, profits, production ratios, and inventory of plastic and PP contracts [12][15][17][20][24][27][31][34][38]