1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating, including soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [5] - Protein Meals: Oscillating, covering soybean meal and rapeseed meal [5] - Corn/Starch: Oscillating [6] - Hogs: Oscillating weakly [2][8] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [9] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [11] - Cotton: Oscillating within a short - term range, with prices slightly stronger this week [12] - Sugar: Oscillating weakly [13] - Pulp: Oscillating weakly [14] - Offset Paper: Oscillating [16] - Logs: Oscillating [19] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural product market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. In the short - term, some products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies, while in the long - term, factors like production capacity changes and consumption trends play important roles. For example, the hog market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern, with short - term supply pressure but potential relief in the second half of 2026 [2][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Continue to oscillate and consolidate, waiting for further information guidance. The market is affected by both macro and industrial factors. Macro factors include the US government "shutdown", expectations of Sino - US trade negotiations, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Industrial factors involve the suspension of US soybean data updates, expectations of lower US soybean yields, increased expected production of Brazilian new - season soybeans, and the inventory and export situations of palm oil [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to oscillate. The market lacks upward momentum due to factors such as the expected accumulation of Malaysian palm oil inventory, the suspension of US soybean data updates, and the smooth progress of Brazilian soybean planting [5]. 3.2 Protein Meals - **View**: Double meals are oscillating at a low level, and selling put options can be attempted. Internationally, US soybean production and exports are affected by policies, and Brazilian soybean planting is progressing smoothly. Domestically, short - term oil mill operations are increasing, and downstream inventory levels are not low. In the medium - term, Sino - US trade relations and downstream replenishment after seasonal destocking need to be monitored. In the long - term, domestic soybean meal supply is expected to be sufficient in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a possible small shortage in the first quarter of 2026 [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate. The market should pay attention to the support level around 2850 - 2900, as well as weather and Sino - US trade trends. Selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered [5]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: There is a temporary shortage at ports, leading to a continuous rebound in futures and spot prices. Short - term price increases are due to factors such as bad weather, farmers' reluctance to sell, port shortages, and state - owned reserve purchases. However, the selling pressure has not been fully released, and the market is expected to be oscillating weakly in the short - term. In the long - term, the market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [6][7]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. If prices rebound slightly due to recent weather disturbances and inventory shortages, short - selling opportunities can be considered. In the long - term, the expectation of tight annual supply supports the idea of low - buying in the far - month contracts [7]. 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Second - fattening replenishment has diverted part of the supply pressure, leading to a rebound in hog futures and spot prices. In the short - term, consumption is in the off - season, and supply is abundant. In the medium - term, the high - level production capacity of sows in the first half of 2025 will lead to an increase in hog slaughter in the fourth quarter. In the long - term, sow production capacity is showing signs of reduction, and supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. Near - month contracts are under supply pressure, while far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. The hog industry presents a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern, and attention can be paid to reverse - spread strategy opportunities [2][8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Return to the oscillating bottom - grinding trend. The recent divergence in the trends of light and dark rubber is due to factors such as the impact of state - reserve sales on RU and the low import volume and limited warehouse receipts of NR. The raw material price of cup rubber is relatively firm, and there are still some weather disturbances in the producing areas. The demand for tires in the fourth quarter is expected to decline [9][10]. - **Outlook**: Due to high macro uncertainty, if the overall commodity performance is poor, rubber prices are expected to continue to oscillate and find the bottom [10]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The market performance is dull, with narrow - range oscillations. High production this year has been a major pressure on the market. Although downstream demand is increasing, the growth rate is lower than that of production, resulting in high social inventory. The price of butadiene, the raw material, has been fluctuating [11]. - **Outlook**: With high fundamental pressure and a lack of improvement in the raw material end, the market is expected to continue to oscillate and grind the bottom, and there is a possibility of hitting a new low for the year [11]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: The purchase price has increased, leading to a rebound in cotton prices. The expected cotton production in Xinjiang has been adjusted downward, and the firm purchase price of seed cotton has provided cost - side support. In the short - term, the downward driving force of Zhengzhou cotton has weakened, and there is a demand for a rebound [12]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating within a short - term range, with prices slightly stronger this week. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations, and upstream enterprises are advised to hedge actively when prices are high [12]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices are oscillating at a low level, with weak supply and demand. In the medium - and long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 crushing season, and sugar prices are in a bearish pattern. In the short - term, Brazilian sugar production has passed its peak, but exports have increased, and domestic sales and inventory situations are not optimistic [13]. - **Outlook**: Sugar prices are expected to oscillate weakly as a whole, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [13]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: Spot trading is light, and pulp prices are running at a low level. After the National Day, pulp futures have shown a bottom - oscillating trend. The supply and demand situation has not changed significantly, and the market is concerned about the high ratio of virtual to real pulp and the concentrated cancellation at the end of the year. However, the game sentiment for the 01 contract has weakened. In general, the pulp market is difficult to rise significantly [14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. The market is dominated by warehouse receipts and weak supply - demand conditions, and the weakness of pulp futures is difficult to reverse [14][15]. 3.10 Offset Paper - **View**: With the approaching of tenders, offset paper prices may stabilize. The spot price center of offset paper remains stable, but the market is not active. The cost support is average, and the upcoming tenders have a pessimistic market expectation. Although the supply pressure has been alleviated to some extent, the increase in new production capacity in South China may restrict paper prices [16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. There is a possibility of a slight decline in spot prices in the short - term [16]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: Freight rates have increased, leading to the relatively strong operation of logs. The increase in port fees has raised the cost of some ships, affecting the price of logs. The market has been running weakly recently due to factors such as the negative impact of domestic timber delivery in Chongqing and the failure of the peak - season expectation. The inventory level is not low, and the demand in the real - estate market is weak [19]. - **Outlook**: In the next few weeks, due to the disturbance of increased port - fee costs, attention can be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the progress of foreign merchants' replacement of involved ships and the risk of price decline after the relaxation of Sino - US policies [19].

Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints - The better-than-expected US soybean crushing data alleviates market concerns about US soybean demand, leading to a recovery in US soybean futures prices. However, sufficient domestic supply in China still exerts significant pressure on the upside of domestic soybean meal futures [2]. - The continuous growth of Malaysian palm oil exports provides some support for palm oil prices. Nevertheless, uncertainties in the Sino - US trade situation and increased macro - disturbances may put short - term pressure on the oil market [2]. 2. Market Data Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and other products are provided, along with their price changes and percentage changes. For example, the previous day's closing price of soybean oil futures was 8252, with a price increase of 12 and a percentage increase of 0.15% [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: Data on spreads and ratios such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and others are given, including their current values and previous values [1]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of international futures such as BMD palm oil and CBOT soybeans are presented. For instance, the previous day's closing price of BMD palm oil was 4350, with a price decrease of 70 and a percentage decrease of - 1.58% [1]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: Spot prices and their percentage changes of various oils and meals in domestic markets are provided, along with their spot basis and spreads. For example, the current spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8450, with a percentage decrease of - 0.12%, and the spot basis is 198 [1]. Import and Profit - **Import Profit Data**: Data on import and profit for various imported agricultural products are given, including current and previous values. For example, the current import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is - 379, compared to the previous value of - 417 [1]. Warehouse Receipts - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: Current and previous values of warehouse receipts for products such as soybean oil, palm oil, and others are presented. For example, the current warehouse receipt of soybean oil is 26,294, compared to the previous value of 25,444 [1]. 3. Industry Information - The US National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported that the soybean crushing volume in September was 197.863 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 4.24% and a year - on - year increase of 11.6%, setting the fourth - highest record for all months and the highest for the same period in history, far exceeding analysts' expectations [2]. - Due to low prices, US farmers are generally reluctant to sell, which supports the supply side. The US Department of Agriculture has stopped issuing reports due to the government shutdown [2]. - Based on analysts' expectations, as of October 12, the US soybean harvest was 58% complete, higher than the 39% estimated the previous week [2]. - According to SPPOMA, the production of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 15, 2025, increased by 6.86% compared to the same period last month. According to AmSpec, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 15 increased by 12.3% month - on - month [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The main futures price of soybean oil has been fluctuating and adjusting this week. China's soybean oil inventory continues to accumulate, with sufficient supply and a weak current situation. In the fourth quarter, which is the traditional consumption peak season for soybean oil, and as it is currently the most cost - effective oil, the inventory is expected to stop increasing and decline, and the futures price center of soybean oil is expected to move up slightly. It is advisable to hold long positions in the main contract of soybean oil, with support levels at 8150 - 8200 yuan/ton and pressure levels at 8400 - 8450 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil futures have been weakening. The market is worried about the possible consultation on the import control policy of Canadian rapeseed between the two countries, which suppresses the rapeseed oil futures price. The policy expectation mainly affects the market sentiment. The basis price in the spot market has risen slightly today, showing a divergence from the futures price. The inventory of rapeseed oil is continuously decreasing, and enterprises are strongly willing to support prices. The basis of rapeseed oil remains stable, and the market is in a stalemate. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the unilateral operation of the 01 contract or buy options to protect existing positions. The support level of the main 01 contract of rapeseed oil is 9800 - 9820 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 10020 - 10050 yuan/ton [4]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract of palm oil has been weakly adjusting this week. The inventory pressure in the palm oil - producing areas in Southeast Asia is not large, and the inventory is expected to enter the November production - reduction season lightly. Coupled with Indonesia's test of B50, the supply - demand of palm oil is expected to narrow in the fourth quarter, and the medium - to - long - term bullish view remains unchanged. Aggressive strategies can consider holding long positions or buying out - of - the - money call options after the price stabilizes. The support level of the main contract of palm oil is 9230 - 9270 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 9650 - 9680 yuan/ton [5]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2**: The main contract of soybean meal futures has broken through the support level and declined. The U.S. soybean crushing volume exceeds market expectations, and Sino - U.S. trade frictions continue. The current weather in the world's major soybean - producing areas is relatively good, which is suitable for the harvest of U.S. soybeans and the sowing of Brazilian soybeans, and the upward driving force of U.S. soybeans is also insufficient. China's domestic inventory of oil - pressing soybeans and soybean meal is relatively sufficient, and the supply remains loose. It is advisable to lightly short the main contract of soybean meal unilaterally or consider selling out - of - the - money call options. For arbitrage, consider going long on the oil - meal ratio of the 01 contract of soybeans. The support level of the main contract of soybean meal is 2800 - 2830 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 2960 - 2970 yuan/ton. The support level of the main contract of Bean No. 2 is 3500 - 3530 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 3675 - 3700 yuan/ton [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The sentiment of rapeseed meal has been weak. The market generally expects that the two countries may consult on the rapeseed trade policy. Rapeseed meal is facing the dual pressures of the seasonal consumption off - season and the squeeze of substitute varieties, and the terminal purchasing willingness is low. The continuous weakness of soybean meal also drags down rapeseed meal. It is necessary to focus on the results of Sino - Canadian trade negotiations and wait and see before the policy is clear. Consider going long on the oil - meal ratio of the 01 contract of rapeseed. The support level of the main contract of rapeseed meal is 2230 - 2250 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 2400 - 2430 yuan/ton [5][6]. - **Bean No. 1**: The futures price of Bean No. 1 has risen this week. The new - season soybeans in the Northeast market have basically completed the harvest, and the grain trading enterprises are actively purchasing. The high - protein soybeans are in short supply and the price is firm, while the low - protein soybeans have a weak price. With the concentrated listing of soybeans in the Northeast and the low valuation of Bean No. 1 and the reluctance of farmers to sell, the domestic soybean price is running strongly. It is advisable to hold long positions in the main contract of Bean No. 1. The pressure level of the 11 contract of Bean No. 1 is in the range of 4050 - 4080 yuan/ton, and the support level is in the range of 3900 - 3930 yuan/ton [6]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price of peanuts has remained stable over the weekend. The probability of purchasing U.S. soybeans has increased due to the new round of Sino - U.S. trade negotiations. The planting area of new - season peanuts has increased this year, and the planting cost has decreased year - on - year. Currently, the area and quantity of peanut listing are gradually increasing, with upward pressure. However, the futures price has reflected the expected increase in production, and the yield per unit in some areas of Henan is not good, so the downward space of the futures price is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the purchasing dynamics of oil - pressing plants and the new - season procurement situation. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The support level of the 01 contract is 7900 - 7550 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 8020 - 8160 yuan/ton [6]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The futures prices of corn and corn starch have shown a low - level oscillating trend this week. In the external market, there is a game between the harvest pressure in the Northern Hemisphere and the good export of U.S. corn, and the sowing in South America has started smoothly, so the overall futures price is expected to remain oscillating at a low level. In the domestic market, the new - season harvest is progressing, and the continuous rainy weather in North China has brought new differences to the market. After the futures price refreshed the low point, the market has entered a new game. Considering that the new - season harvest is still in progress, the listing pressure may not be fully reflected, and the futures price is still in the process of finding the bottom. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously or pay attention to the reverse spread of the 1 - 5 spread of corn. For options, consider selling out - of - the - money call options. The support range of the 01 contract of corn is 2000 - 2020 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 2180 - 2200 yuan/ton. The support range of the 11 contract of corn starch is 2340 - 2350 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 2480 - 2500 yuan/ton [7]. - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs has been fluctuating narrowly over the weekend. Recently, the hog price has fallen below the breeding cost, and the hog - grain ratio has quickly fallen below 5:1, with significantly reduced breeding profits. Under the atmosphere of "anti - involution" to limit production capacity, the near - end slaughter of hogs has increased. The futures price of hogs has hit a new annual low. This week, the national average spot price of hogs is about 10.67 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.23 yuan/kg compared with last Friday. Before the festival, the slaughter volume rebounded significantly month - on - month, was at a high level year - on - year, and was higher than that in 2023. The near - end farmers are actively slaughtering, and the supply of standard hogs is loose. The price of 7 - kg piglets has fallen close to the slaughter cost. In terms of the futures price, the Sino - U.S. restart of negotiations is expected to make the agricultural product index oscillate weakly as a whole, and the futures price of hogs is currently at a premium to the spot price. The 01 contract refers to the range of 11000 - 13000 points. Cautious investors can hold the reverse spread of shorting the near - month contract and going long on the far - month contract, and aggressive investors can buy the 2605 contract when the price falls below the breeding cost in the medium - term and sell deep out - of - the - money call options with a strike price above 15000 points to reduce the bottom - fishing cost [8][9]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs has been generally stable with a slight weakness over the weekend. After the seasonal decline, the egg price has stabilized. Since the 10 contract is in the off - season after the Mid - Autumn Festival, the futures price has a weak follow - up to the spot price. Currently, the egg index continues to oscillate at the bottom and has reached a historical low. In October, the terminal consumption is expected to decline month - on - month, the current stocking demand has weakened, and farmers are gradually increasing the culling of laying hens, and the price of culled hens has also declined. The supply - demand pattern has marginally improved. The national spot price over the weekend is about 3.00 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin compared with last Friday. Fundamentally, the current egg price is at a relatively low level, and the inventory of laying hens is at a historical high. It is necessary to wait for farmers to increase the culling of laying hens to drive the reduction of production capacity. Aggressive investors can buy the 2512 contract unilaterally at low prices in the short - term. Since the egg index has approached the historical low level, it is advisable to be cautious about short - selling in speculative trading or buy the positive spread between the 12 - 1 month contracts at low prices [9]. 3. Summaries Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Analysis - **Soybean Oil 01**: The fundamental situation has not changed much, affected by the significant fluctuations of crude oil recently. The current supply is sufficient, and the supply - demand is expected to improve in the fourth quarter. The market is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is advisable to hold long positions lightly [12]. - **Rapeseed Oil 01**: The purchase of rapeseed is relatively small, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in Sino - Canadian trade relations. The market is expected to oscillate within a range, and it is advisable to wait and see [12]. - **Palm 01**: The production of Malaysian palm oil exceeds market expectations, but the inventory pressure in the producing areas is not large. Indonesia plans to promote B50, and the downward space of the palm oil price is limited. The medium - to - long - term bullish view remains unchanged. It is advisable to hold long positions [12]. - **Soybean Meal 01**: The current inventory of oil - pressing soybeans and soybean meal is sufficient, and the feed demand for soybean meal is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter, with insufficient bullish driving forces. The bullish expectation lies in the continuous Sino - U.S. trade frictions. The market is expected to oscillate widely, and it is advisable to wait and see [12]. - **Rapeseed Meal 01**: The market is affected by the expected relaxation of trade policies and the weakening of demand. It is necessary to pay attention to Sino - Canadian trade policies. The market is expected to oscillate and adjust, and it is advisable to wait and see [12]. - **Corn 01**: The overall pressure environment remains unchanged, with short - term rhythm disturbances. However, the harvest is still in progress, and the pressure has not been fully released. The market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to hold short positions cautiously [12]. - **Starch 11**: The price of corn, the cost end, is expected to face pressure, and the enterprise's inventory accumulation expectation puts pressure on the spot price. The market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to hold short positions cautiously [12]. - **Hogs 01**: The feed price has stopped falling and rebounded, and there are policies to reduce production capacity in the industry. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is advisable to mainly wait and see [12]. - **Eggs 12**: Affected by production capacity pressure and the expectation of the consumption peak season, the market is expected to find the bottom through oscillation, and it is advisable to buy at low prices [12]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, basis of the main contracts, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including soybeans, peanuts, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock products [13]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Fats and Oils - **Daily Data**: The report provides the import cost data of fats and oils, including the arrival premium, CBOT soybean futures price, CNF arrival price, soybean import arrival duty - paid price, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is 0 for different shipping dates of soybeans from Brazil, Argentina, and the U.S. Gulf. It also provides relevant data for rapeseed and palm oil shipping dates [14][16]. - **Weekly Data**: The report provides the weekly data of fats and oils, including the inventory and operating rate of soybeans, rapeseed, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the inventory of related products such as soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil [17]. 3.2.2 Feed The report provides the weekly data of corn and corn starch, including the consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises, the inventory of corn by deep - processing enterprises, the operating rate of starch enterprises, and the inventory of starch enterprises [18]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - **Hogs**: The report provides the key weekly data of the hog market, including the spot price, breeding cost, profit, slaughter data, and other indicators [19]. - **Eggs**: The report provides the key weekly data of the egg market, including supply - side indicators such as the laying rate, the proportion of different sizes of eggs, the age of culled hens, and the supply of culled hens, demand - side indicators such as inventory, and profit - related indicators [20]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming (Hogs and Eggs)**: The report provides charts of the closing price of the main contract of hogs, the closing price of the main contract of eggs, the spot price of hogs, the price of piglets, the price of white - striped pork, the spot price of eggs, the price of chicken chicks, and the price of culled hens [22][24][25]. - **Fats and Oils**: - **Palm Oil**: The report provides charts of the monthly production, export volume, and ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil, the import parity profit of palm oil, the import volume, domestic inventory, daily trading volume, price spreads, and basis of palm oil [32][33][36]. - **Soybean Oil**: The report provides charts of the U.S. soybean crushing volume, U.S. soybean oil inventory, soybean crushing profit, domestic soybean oil mill operating rate, domestic soybean oil inventory, daily trading volume, price spreads, and basis of soybean oil [39][40][44]. - **Peanuts**: The report provides charts of the arrival and shipment volume of peanuts in domestic wholesale markets, the daily crushing profit of peanuts, the weekly raw material procurement volume of some oil - pressing plants, the weekly operating rate of peanuts, the inventory of peanuts and peanut oil in oil - pressing plants, the monthly import volume of peanuts, price spreads, and basis of peanuts [46][48]. - **Feed**: - **Corn**: The report provides charts of the spot price, closing price, basis, price spreads, port inventory, import volume, consumption by deep - processing enterprises, inventory of deep - processing enterprises, ethanol processing profit, and price difference between corn and wheat of corn [50][52][55]. - **Corn Starch**: The report provides charts of the spot price, closing price, basis, price difference with corn, enterprise operating rate, inventory, price difference with flour, and weekly profit of corn starch [59][61][62]. - **Rapeseed**: The report provides charts of the spot price of rapeseed meal, the spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil, basis, inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in coastal oil mills, inventory of rapeseed oil, rapeseed crushing volume, domestic rapeseed crushing profit, and the delivery volume of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil in coastal areas [64][66][68]. - **Soybean Meal**: The report provides charts of the flowering rate and pod - setting rate of U.S. soybeans, the inventory of soybeans in national ports, and the inventory of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills [73][75]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Fats and Oils The report provides charts of the historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest,

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【油脂周报（P&Y&OI)】 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-10-20 陈凡生 从业资格号：F03117830 投资咨询号：Z0022681 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 油脂：三油走势分化，等待趋势性驱动 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | （1）印马棕榈油产地库存高位；（2）大豆油厂压榨量增加；（3）国内棕榈油和豆油库存反弹。 | | 需求 | 观望 | （1）产地方面印尼B50积极推进中；（2）美国生柴RVO未落定，或视贸易摩擦结果而定；（3）国内旺季成色偏差，油脂成交量较同期偏低。 | | 库存 | 中性偏空 | 国内油脂总库存有所累库，但主要原因是假期提货量减少，基于大豆油厂降压榨挺价、菜籽油厂缺少菜籽的情况，后续油脂库存预计整体走低。 | | 宏观及政策 | 观望 | （1）中美领导人会面前摩擦不断，不确定性增加；（2）印尼官方宣布B50处于道路实验中，预计明年 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The September USDA report showed an increase in US soybean production, a decrease in global production, and an increase in US soybean inventory, with an overall neutral - weak report. China's imports from October to November exceeded expectations due to soybean purchases from Brazil and Argentina, and the supply pressure persists. The uncertainty of Sino - US tariffs may affect soybean procurement, and domestic supply may face uncertainty after November due to unconfirmed purchases from December to January. Short - term domestic spot is weak, in the seasonal demand off - season, and inventory pressure is high [5]. - For rapeseed meal, domestic supply - demand changes are small. The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may lead to a significant decrease in imports, but there is uncertainty. Domestic demand has entered the seasonal consumption off - season, especially the weakening of aquaculture demand. It follows the weakening of soybean meal in the short term [5]. - In the palm oil market, this month's MPOB report showed that inventory accumulation exceeded expectations and increased month - on - month, with a neutral - bearish report. Indonesia proposed the B50 biodiesel plan again, but the recent weakening of crude oil may weaken the biodiesel theme. Domestic inventory is still at a relatively high accumulation stage, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking cycle due to seasonal production cuts in major producing countries at the end of the year [37]. - For soybean oil, soybean crushing remains at a high level, and soybean oil is in a continuous inventory accumulation stage. Overseas biodiesel may weaken as crude oil weakens. Argentina's tariff - free exports may increase China's direct imports of soybean oil. Demand is gradually entering the seasonal peak season, but the substitutability of other oils should be noted. Overall, it maintains a slightly surplus pattern with high inventory pressure [39]. - Regarding rapeseed oil, the current rapeseed sector lacks new themes, and domestic inventory is in a continuous de - stocking cycle. The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may lead to a decrease in rapeseed oil supply. Attention should be paid to changes in imports from Russia and the impact of possible trade negotiations at the end of the month on future rapeseed oil purchases. It is weak in the short term but has support in the medium term due to reduced imports [40]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal - The September USDA report had a neutral - weak impact on the soybean market, with an increase in US soybean production and inventory and a decrease in global production [5]. - China's imports from October to November exceeded expectations due to purchases from Brazil and Argentina, and supply pressure persists. The uncertainty of Sino - US tariffs may affect soybean procurement, and domestic supply after November may be affected by unconfirmed purchases from December to January [5]. - Short - term domestic spot is weak, in the seasonal demand off - season, and inventory pressure is high [5]. Rapeseed Meal - Domestic supply - demand changes are small, and attention should be paid to the listing of new Canadian rapeseed [5]. - The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may lead to a significant decrease in imports, but there is uncertainty. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed also brings uncertainty to future imports [5]. - Domestic demand has entered the seasonal consumption off - season, especially the weakening of aquaculture demand. It follows the weakening of soybean meal in the short term [5]. Palm Oil - This month's MPOB report showed that inventory accumulation exceeded expectations and increased month - on - month, with a neutral - bearish report [37]. - Indonesia proposed the B50 biodiesel plan again, but the recent weakening of crude oil may weaken the biodiesel theme [37]. - Domestic inventory is still at a relatively high accumulation stage, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking cycle due to seasonal production cuts in major producing countries at the end of the year [37]. Soybean Oil - Soybean crushing remains at a high level, and soybean oil is in a continuous inventory accumulation stage [39]. - Overseas biodiesel may weaken as crude oil weakens [39]. - Argentina's tariff - free exports may increase China's direct imports of soybean oil [39]. - Demand is gradually entering the seasonal peak season, but the substitutability of other oils should be noted. Overall, it maintains a slightly surplus pattern with high inventory pressure [39]. Rapeseed Oil - The current rapeseed sector lacks new themes, and domestic inventory is in a continuous de - stocking cycle [40]. - The anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may lead to a decrease in rapeseed oil supply. Attention should be paid to changes in imports from Russia [40]. - Attention should be paid to the impact of possible trade negotiations at the end of the month on future rapeseed oil purchases. It is weak in the short term but has support in the medium term due to reduced imports [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - **Soybean Oil**: China's soybean oil inventory continues to accumulate with sufficient supply and currently lacks bullish drivers. However, as the traditional consumption season in Q4 and the best - value oil, inventory is expected to stop increasing and decline, and the futures price center may move up slightly. It's advisable to hold long positions in the main contract, with support at 8150 - 8200 yuan/ton and resistance at 8400 - 8450 yuan/ton [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Despite macro - risk disturbances and a weakening in the futures market, the spot basis remains firm. With anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed imports, supply will gradually tighten. Although high current inventory restricts the futures price, there is a strong de - stocking expectation. It's recommended to wait for stabilization and then go long lightly, with support at 9768 - 9785 and resistance at 10249 - 10266 [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The recent decline in crude oil and increased palm oil production in Malaysia have led to a price drop. But the inventory pressure in Southeast Asian production areas is not large, and with the B50 test in Indonesia, the supply - demand situation is expected to narrow in Q4. Aggressive strategies can consider holding long positions or buying out - of - the - money call options after stabilization, with support at 9230 - 9270 and resistance at 9650 - 9680 [2]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2**: The supply of soybean meal and bean No. 2 is abundant, and the consumption of soybean meal is entering the off - season. The futures price of soybean meal is likely to remain weak. It's recommended to hold short positions lightly or sell out - of - the - money call options for soybean meal, and consider going long on the 01 contract oil - meal ratio [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The upward driving force is insufficient, but the downside is limited. There is no obvious single - side trading opportunity. Consider going long on the 01 contract rapeseed oil - meal ratio, with support at 2354 - 2370 and resistance at 2474 - 2500 [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The external market is under pressure, and the domestic market is also bearish due to the new - season harvest and poor downstream profits. It's recommended to hold short positions cautiously, with the 11 - contract corn support at 2000 - 2050 and resistance at 2180 - 2200, and the 11 - contract corn starch support at 2340 - 2350 and resistance at 2500 - 2520 [4]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The new - season soybeans in the Northeast are on the market, and the price is polarized. With low valuation and active downstream purchases, it's advisable to go long lightly, with support at 3900 - 3930 yuan/ton and resistance at 4030 - 4050 yuan/ton [5]. - **Peanuts**: Although the new - season peanut production is expected to increase, the adverse weather in Henan has affected yields. It's recommended to hold long positions temporarily, with support at 7550 - 7900 and resistance at 8020 - 8160 [5]. - **Pigs**: The futures and spot prices stopped falling and rebounded. The industry is reducing weights and increasing the supply. It's advisable for cautious investors to hold short - near and long - far spreads, and wait for capacity reduction to buy the 2607 contract at low prices [7]. - **Eggs**: The futures price continued to rebound from the bottom. The spot price is in the off - season. It's recommended to avoid shorting blindly. Aggressive investors can go long on the 2512 contract at low prices, with the reference range at 2950 - 3200 points [7]. Summary by Directory 1. First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations a. Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support | Resistance | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 11 | New domestic soybeans are in abundant supply, and downstream purchases are relatively active under low valuation | 3900 - 3930 | 4030 - 4050 | Oscillating strongly | Go long lightly | | | Soybean No. 2 11 | Sufficient current inventory of oil - pressing soybeans, continuous Sino - US trade friction, and no purchase of new - season US soybeans | 3500 - 3540 | 3675 - 3700 | Oscillating adjustment | Wait and see | | | Peanut 11 | Increasing market supply, poor yield performance in parts of Henan | 7500 - 7600 | 8020 - 8162 | Oscillating adjustment | Wait and see | | Oils | Soybean Oil 01 | Little change in fundamentals, affected by crude oil fluctuations. Sufficient supply currently, and the supply - demand outlook is positive in Q4 | 8150 - 8200 | 8400 - 8450 | Oscillating up | Go long lightly | | | Rapeseed Oil 01 | Fewer purchase orders, de - stocking expected | 9768 - 9785 | 10249 - 10266 | Oscillating adjustment | Go long after stabilization | | | Palm 01 | Malaysian palm oil production exceeds expectations, but inventory pressure in production areas is not large. Indonesia plans to promote B50, and the long - term outlook is bullish | 9230 - 9270 | 9650 - 9680 | Oscillating adjustment | Go long after stabilization | | Protein | Soybean Meal 01 | Sufficient inventory of oil - pressing soybeans and soybean meal, and the feed demand for soybean meal is expected to weaken in Q4. The bullish factor is the continuous Sino - US trade friction | 2800 - 2850 | 2960 - 2970 | Oscillating adjustment | Hold short positions | | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | Expected reduction in Canadian rapeseed imports, and seasonal demand weakening | 2354 - 2370 | 2474 - 2500 | Oscillating adjustment | Wait and see | | Energy and By - products | Corn 11 | The market is under pressure seasonally, but the listing rhythm may have some disturbances | 2000 - 2050 | 2180 - 2200 | Bearish expectation | Hold short positions cautiously | | | Starch 11 | The cost of corn is under pressure, and the spot supply is slightly loose. The futures price of starch follows the downward trend | 2340 - 2350 | 2500 - 2520 | Bearish expectation | Hold short positions cautiously | | Livestock | Pigs 11 | Feed prices stopped falling and rebounded, and the expectation of capacity reduction is strengthened | 12800 - 13000 | 13000 - 13800 | Oscillating to find the bottom | Switch to waiting and seeing | | | Eggs 12 | Capacity pressure + expectation of the consumption peak season | 2900 - 3100 | 3300 - 3350 | Oscillating to find the bottom | Wait and see | [10] b. Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - delivery Arbitrage**: Most varieties are recommended to wait and see, except for pigs 1 - 3 and eggs 10 - 1, which are recommended to go long at low prices [12]. - **Inter - variety Arbitrage**: For oils, 01 soybean oil - palm oil is recommended for short - biased operation, 01 rapeseed oil - soybean oil for long - biased operation, and 01 rapeseed oil - palm oil to wait and see. For protein, 01 soybean meal - rapeseed meal is in low - level oscillation. For the oil - meal ratio, the 01 soybean oil - meal ratio and 01 rapeseed oil - meal ratio are recommended for long - biased operation. For energy and by - products, 11 starch - corn is recommended to wait and see [12]. c. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies | Sector | Variety | Spot Price | Change | Main Contract Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 | 3960 | 3960 | - 7 | 94 | | | Soybean No. 2 | 3960 | 3960 | 347 | 39 | | | Peanuts | 7400 | 7400 | - 342 | 80 | | Oils | Soybean Oil | 8620 | 8620 | 310 | 8 | | | Rapeseed Oil | 10180 | 30 | 221 | - 35 | | | Palm Oil | 9280 | 20 | - 50 | 54 | | Protein | Soybean Meal | 2920 | - 10 | 78 | 78 | | | Rapeseed Meal | 2430 | - 30 | 82 | 14 | | Energy and By - products | Corn | 2120 | - 20 | 58 | 3 | | | Starch | 2570 | 0 | 169 | - 17 | | Livestock | Pigs | 10.92 yuan/kg | 0.07 yuan/kg | - 450 | - 275 | | | Eggs | 2.42 yuan/jin | - 0.07 yuan/jin | 48 yuan/500kg | - 44 yuan/500kg | [13] 2. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table a. Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: Includes import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods [14]. - **Weekly Data**: Shows the inventory and operation rates of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [16]. b. Feed - **Daily Data**: Presents the import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil [16]. - **Weekly Data**: Displays the consumption, inventory, operation rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [17]. c. Livestock - **Daily Data**: Provides the daily price changes of live pigs and eggs [18][19]. - **Weekly Data**: Shows the key weekly data of live pigs and eggs, including prices, costs, profits, and production - related data [20][22]. 3. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock End (Pigs, Eggs)**: Includes charts of futures and spot prices of pigs and eggs, as well as related prices such as piglets and white - striped pigs [24]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: - **Palm Oil**: Covers production, inventory, import, and price - related charts in Malaysia [34]. - **Soybean Oil**: Includes charts of US soybean crushing, inventory, and domestic operation rates and inventory [41]. - **Peanuts**: Involves charts of market supply, processing, and price - related data [50]. - **Feed End**: - **Corn**: Includes price, inventory, import, and processing - profit - related charts [56]. - **Corn Starch**: Covers price, operation rate, and inventory - related charts [64]. - **Rapeseed**: Includes spot price, inventory, and basis - related charts [68]. - **Soybean Meal**: Involves US soybean growth, inventory, and price - spread - related charts [74]. 4. Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils Includes historical volatility charts of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as option trading volume and open - interest charts of corn [90]. 5. Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils Shows the warehouse receipt quantity and open - interest charts of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [93].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity futures market experienced a majority decline in the night session on October 14, with energy products leading the drop, particularly low-sulfur fuel oil which fell by 1.90% [1] Group 1: Energy Products - Low-sulfur fuel oil decreased by 1.90% [1] Group 2: Non-Metallic Building Materials - All non-metallic building materials saw a decline, with glass dropping by 1.48% [1] Group 3: Chemical Products - Most chemical products declined, with PTA falling by 1.30% [1] Group 4: Oilseeds and Oils - Most oilseeds and oils also experienced a decline, with soybean oil decreasing by 0.65% [1] Group 5: Black Metals - The black metal sector mostly declined, with iron ore dropping by 0.51% [1] Group 6: Agricultural Products - Agricultural products showed gains, with corn increasing by 0.43% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - **Protein Meal**: The night - session of soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated and closed higher. Tensions in Sino - US trade relations weakened the export prospects of US soybeans, depressing US soybean prices. Although the market strongly expects the US Department of Agriculture to lower the US soybean yield per unit in this month's USDA report, the report is postponed due to the US government shutdown, suppressing market trading. With US soybeans being harvested and listed, reduced export demand will continue to pressure US soybean prices, which are expected to be weak. In the domestic market, the previous valuation of Sino - US trade improvement will be revised upwards due to the renewed trade conflict. The expectation of tight supply in the later period and the expectation of tariff upgrades will boost the performance of Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal [2]. - **Oils and Fats**: The night - session of oils and fats showed a strong performance. The MPOB released this month's supply - demand report. In September, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.841 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73%; exports were 1.428 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.7%, basically in line with market expectations. As of the end of September, Malaysia's palm oil inventory was 2.3609 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.2%. The MPOB report shows that inventory accumulation is higher than expected. Meanwhile, uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations and increased macro - disturbances may put short - term pressure on the oils and fats market. However, in the medium to long term, the Southeast Asian production areas will enter the production - reduction season, and international biodiesel policies will continue to support the consumption demand for oils and fats [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8,268, 9,364, and 10,022 respectively, with changes of - 34, - 74, and - 39, and percentage changes of - 0.41%, - 0.78%, and - 3.15%. For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts, the previous day's closing prices were 2,932, 2,400, and 8,844 respectively, with changes of 10, - 58, and 26, and percentage changes of 0.34%, - 2.36%, and 0.29% [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current values of spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 were - 320, - 538, and - 380 respectively, compared with previous values of - 296, - 574, and - 602. The current values of ratios - spreads like M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, and M - RM09 were - 74, 3, and 458 respectively, compared with previous values of - 85, 0, and 396 [1]. 3.2 International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4,473 ringgit/ton, 1,008 cents/bushel, 51 cents/pound, and 275 dollars/ton respectively, with changes of - 26, 1, 1, and - 1, and percentage changes of - 0.58%, 0.12%, 1.12%, and - 0.40% [1]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil were 8,470 and 8,570 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.82% and - 0.81%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil were 9,320 and 9,260 respectively, with percentage changes of - 2.10% and - 2.11%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil were 10,270 and 10,270 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.96% and - 1.06% [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil and other products were 202, etc. The current spot spreads such as the difference between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil was - 560, compared with a previous value of - 590 [1]. 3.4 Import and Crushing Profits - The current values of import and crushing profits for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, etc. were - 465, 29, etc., compared with previous values of - 60, - 210, etc [1]. 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, and other products were 25,444, 1,500, etc., compared with previous values of 25,444, 1,570, etc [1]. 3.6 Industry Information - As of October 11, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 11.1%, compared with 8.2% last week, 9.1% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 16.9% [2]. - The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) of the United States will release its September report on Thursday. Analysts expect the soybean crushing volume in September to be around 185 million to 190 million bushels, compared with 189.81 million bushels in August and 178.2 million bushels in the same period last year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Long - term bullish, short - term correction and consolidation [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The report maintains the view that the medium - and long - term trend of oils and fats is upward, but there may be a short - term correction due to Sino - US trade frictions [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bullish. Reasons include expected heavy rain in palm oil producing areas in India and Malaysia in the next two weeks, reduced oil mill crushing volume, and a trend of inventory reduction for three major oils [5] - **Demand**: Wait - and - see. The B50 policy in Indonesia is being actively promoted, the US biofuel Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) is undetermined and may depend on trade frictions, and the domestic peak season is lackluster with lower trading volume compared to the same period [5] - **Inventory**: Slightly bullish. Although the total domestic oils and fats inventory increased last week mainly due to reduced holiday pick - up, it is expected to decline overall later considering soybean oil mills' reduced crushing to support prices and rapeseed oil mills' lack of raw materials [5] - **Macro and Policy**: Bullish. There is uncertainty about RVO. Sino - US trade frictions have tightened the outlook for distant - month soybeans, Indonesia's B50 is in road tests and expected to be implemented in the second half of next year [5] - **Investment View**: Long - term bullish, short - term correction and consolidation [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Buy on dips; Arbitrage: Long oils and short meals in distant months, and long the January contract and short the May contract for palm oil; Options: Buy out - of - the - money call options [5] 3.2 Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of major oils and fats contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as various price spreads such as P1 - 5, Y1 - 5, OI1 - 5 spreads, and spot price spreads between domestic soybean oil, palm oil, etc [7][9][14] 3.3 Oils and Fats Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Southeast Asia Weather**: It shows future precipitation and temperature anomaly forecasts in Southeast Asia [19][21] - **Indonesia Monthly Supply - Demand**: Data on Indonesia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory are presented [30][34] - **Malaysia Monthly Supply - Demand**: Data on Malaysia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory are provided [35][41] - **India Monthly Import and International Bean - Palm Spread**: Information on India's imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the price spread between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil is given [42][46] - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand**: Data on China's palm oil import cumulative value, daily trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost, and import profit are shown [48][50] - **US Soybean Situation**: It includes future precipitation and temperature forecasts in US soybean - producing areas, soybean's excellent - good rate, leaf - falling rate, harvesting progress, and US and Brazilian export data [60][70][72] - **Domestic Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation**: Data on China's soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly soybean oil production of domestic crushing plants, daily trading volume, and weekly inventory are presented [88] - **Canadian and European Rapeseed Situation**: Future precipitation and temperature forecasts in Canadian and European rapeseed - producing areas, soil moisture in Canada, and relevant export and arrival data are shown [89][98][101] - **Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation**: Information on rapeseed FOB price, Canadian weekly rapeseed export volume, domestic rapeseed expected arrival volume, and relevant production, inventory, and trading volume data of rapeseed oil are provided [102][103][112]

Report Information - Report Title: Oilseeds and Oils Industry Daily Report - Date: October 13, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Core Views Palm Oil - International Market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures opened lower with a gap, briefly dropping to 4,450 ringgit due to the decline in US soybean oil prices before showing signs of a rebound. The SPPOMA's slowing production growth and strong export data from shipping agencies may support the market. After consolidation, there is a chance for the futures to strengthen further and potentially break through previous highs [3]. - Domestic Market: Dalian palm oil futures are in a downward adjustment phase, breaking below the 40 - day moving average and facing downward pressure. They are expected to fill the previous gap. After stabilization, influenced by the rebound of Malaysian palm oil, there is a possibility of a resurgence. If they can rise above the 40 - day moving average, they may follow the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil [3]. Soybean Oil - The decline of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil on October 10 due to the deterioration of Sino - US trade relations led to a slight drop in Dalian soybean oil. However, the bearish sentiment has eased, and the stabilization of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil has limited the decline of Dalian soybean oil. Domestically, with sufficient soybean supply and high inventory, and weakening demand after restocking, the fundamentals are bearish. The January contract is currently oscillating around the daily mid - track at 8,300 yuan, with a potential for further decline [4]. Soybean Meal - Dalian's January contract price of soybean meal rebounded weakly, affected by the uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations. However, the ample supply in the spot market restricts its upward momentum. The market is focused on the progress of the communication between Chinese and US leaders at the end of the month, with the price oscillating narrowly between 2,920 - 2,960 yuan/ton. As of the end of the 41st week of 2025, the domestic soybean meal inventory decreased by 100,000 tons to 1.003 million tons compared to the previous week, a 9.11% decline. With high inventory in oil mills and continuous capacity reduction in the breeding sector, the spot price lacks upward momentum and is trading between 2,900 - 3,150 yuan/ton [17]. Price and Spread Information Oil Price and Spread - Palm Oil: Palm oil futures prices showed declines across different contracts. The BMD palm oil main contract dropped 1.69% to 4,467 ringgit/ton. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou decreased by 220 yuan to 9,220 yuan/ton. The Guangzhou 24 - degree basis increased by 122 yuan to 2 yuan/ton [8]. - Soybean Oil: The prices of soybean oil futures contracts also had mixed changes. The CBOT soybean oil main contract fell 1.96% to 49.97 cents/pound. The price of Shandong first - grade soybean oil decreased by 60 yuan to 8,450 yuan/ton, and the basis remained unchanged at 208 yuan/ton [14]. - Oil Spreads: Various oil spreads such as P 1 - 5, P 5 - 9, Y - P 01, etc., showed different changes. For example, P 1 - 5 decreased by 38 yuan/ton to 172 yuan/ton, and Y - P 01 increased by 102 yuan/ton to - 1,136 yuan/ton [5]. Oilseed Price and Spread - Oilseed Futures Prices: The prices of oilseed futures contracts like soybean meal and rapeseed meal had different movements. For instance, soybean meal 01 rose 10 points to 2,932, with a 0.34% increase, while soybean meal 05 fell 8 points to 2,746, a 0.29% decline [18]. - Oilseed Spreads: Spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, such as M01 - 05, RM01 - 05, also changed. M01 - 05 remained unchanged at 168, while RM01 - 05 decreased by 38 to 63 [19].