1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views 2.1 Fats and Oils - **Palm Oil**: Internationally, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures opened low, then rose and maintained a high - level volatile consolidation. It's necessary to watch if it can effectively break through the 4,350 ringgit resistance. Given concerns about production growth and export slowdown, it may face a volatile adjustment after reaching a high. Domestically, the Dalian palm oil futures market is strong, briefly returning to around 9,000 yuan. It's expected to consolidate between 9,000 - 9,100 yuan. If the Malaysian palm oil falls after reaching a high, the Dalian palm oil may also be pressured [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: In late July, some oil mills are urging提货, and market sales are slow, pressuring the basis quotes. In some regions, there is still room for the basis quotes to decline in the short term. As demand gradually increases in August, it will support the basis quotes [4]. 2.2 Oilseeds - **Soybean Meal**: Supported by the strong rapeseed meal, rising US soybeans, and higher Brazilian premiums, the main contract of Dalian soybean meal briefly broke through the 3,100 - yuan mark. However, as the 2508 contract approaches delivery, beware of the impact of spot - futures convergence on the market. In the short term, focus on the support in the 3,000 - 3,050 - yuan range. Spot prices are expected to fluctuate between 2,850 - 3,100 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fats and Oils 3.1.1 Price Differences - **Inter - monthly and Inter - variety Spreads**: Data shows the price differences and their daily changes for various contracts such as P 1 - 5, Y - P 01, etc. For example, P 1 - 5 is 296 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 10 yuan, and Y - P 01 is - 874 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 64 yuan [5]. - **Palm Oil Spot - Futures Prices and Basis**: The latest prices and price changes of palm oil contracts (01, 05, 09), BMD palm oil, and spot prices in Guangzhou are provided. The basis of Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is 34 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [7]. - **Soybean Oil Spot - Futures Prices and Basis**: The latest prices and price changes of soybean oil contracts (01, 05, 09), CBOT soybean oil, and spot prices in Shandong are given. The basis of Shandong first - grade soybean oil is 94 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [12]. 3.2 Oilseeds 3.2.1 Futures Prices - **Oilseed Futures Prices**: The closing prices, daily changes, and price change rates of contracts such as soybean meal 01, rapeseed meal 01, and CBOT soybeans are presented. For example, soybean meal 01 closed at 3,116 with a daily increase of 12 and a price change rate of 0.39% [17]. 3.2.2 Price Differences - **Inter - monthly and Inter - variety Spreads**: Data includes the price differences and their daily changes for various contracts such as M01 - 05, RM01 - 05. For instance, M01 - 05 is 344 with a daily increase of 9, and RM01 - 05 is 60 with a daily increase of 11 [20].

油脂油料产业周报 ——情绪偏强 2025/07/22 南华研究院农产品研究团队 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647 ） 靳晚冬（期货从业证号：F03118199 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 国际油料整体观点 对于全球大豆，美豆由于中美和谈预期影响以及美豆产区南部和中西部高温偏干天气影响而反弹，但目前看 产区未来两周略受到高温与降雨偏少影响，但从月度预估来看可能将在后续得到缓解，继续高频关注天气为 主。 对于美国大豆，新作种植方面，美中西部本周优良率超市场预期下调，美国大豆优良率为68%，低于市场预 期的71%，前一周为70%，上年同期为68%，主要由于西南部堪萨斯（从69%降到64%，下降了5个百分 点）、内布拉斯加持续高温，优良率提前下调至可能影响后期鼓粒；种植进度方面仍保持顺利进行，美国大 豆开花率为62%，上一周为47%，上年同期为63%，五年均值为63%。美国大豆结英率为26%，上一周为 15%，上年同期为27%，五年均值为26%。 NOPA公布6月美豆压榨绩效创同期新高，6月预估高于去年36万吨至536万吨，受国内豆油消费增长驱动， 美豆油库存进一步走低，低至62万吨。 ...

| | 1、南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025年7月1-20日马来西亚棕榈油产量环比 | | --- | --- | | | 上月同期增加6.19%。2、马来西亚独立检验机构Amspec表示，马来西亚7月1-20日的棕榈油出口量 | | 行业 | 环比减少7.31%。3、Saveraa International：截至2025年7月15日，印度港口植物油总库存量已 | | | 攀升至855679公吨，较6月30日的722918公吨，在短短半个月内激增18%。 | | 信息 | | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆菜粕震荡下行，美国与印度尼西亚达成贸易协议，将大豆关税从32%降至19%，协 | | | 议中包含印尼采购45亿美元美国农产品（涵盖大豆、玉米和棉花）。作为美国大豆第五大进口 | | | 国，印尼此举有力提振了市场对未来美豆出口需求的信心。同时近期民间出口商向未知目的地销 | | | 售12万吨美国大豆，市场对于中美贸易关系改善预期增加。叠加美豆生柴政策下，需求仍将给美 | | | 豆价格提供支撑，美豆期价出现回升。国内供应宽松格局仍将施压上方空间，短期受进口成本支 | | | 撑预计连 ...

油脂核心观点 油脂油料产业日报 2025/07/21 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the agricultural products industry. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil shows a bullish trend due to the digestion of inventory highs, a lack of new negative factors, and positive macro - sentiment. Soybean oil is relatively weak due to good weather for US soybeans and a high inventory build - up rate [4][5][7]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: The prices of soybean meal and soybean No.1 are expected to rise. The fundamentals of US soybeans have improved, and domestic soybean meal is affected by positive market sentiment and the rebound of US soybean prices. The fundamentals of domestic soybean No.1 remain stable, and the futures price is affected by market sentiment [19][20][24]. - **Corn**: The corn market is expected to continue its rebound. The supply - demand pattern of corn remains tight, and factors such as the rebound of spot prices in North China, a slight reduction in imported corn supply, and accelerated warrant cancellation are expected to improve market sentiment [46][47][51]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the sugar market is in a low - level consolidation phase with a strong - reality and weak - expectation pattern. Domestically, it shows an intra - strong and inter - weak pattern, with prices moving towards the cost of out - of - quota imports [76][77][113]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton has rebounded due to improved market sentiment, while domestic cotton futures have risen significantly, mainly driven by concerns about tight old - crop inventories and strong market sentiment. Attention should be paid to downstream textile enterprises' operating conditions and policy trends [114][115][132]. - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs is in a weak oscillation. In the off - season, the influence of large - scale farms on price adjustment is significant. With the arrival of the peak season, the release of social stocks will increase. Policy support such as state reserve purchases provides a price floor [135][136]. 3. Summary by Product Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Performance**: Palm oil 09 contract rose 3.25%, and soybean oil 09 contract rose 2.18%. The price of palm oil was boosted by the digestion of inventory highs and positive macro - sentiment, while soybean oil was relatively weak due to good US soybean weather [4][10]. - **This Week's Outlook**: Palm oil is in a bullish pattern, but there is a risk of callback if inventory builds up in August - September. Soybean oil will follow the overall trend of the oil and fat sector and is expected to benefit from potential positive factors such as the shortage of soybean imports [5][7]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Last Week's Performance**: US soybean prices rebounded, with the 11 - month contract rising 2.73%. Domestic soybean meal and soybean No.1 prices also rose, with the soybean meal m2509 contract rising 2.69% and the soybean No.1 a2509 contract rising 2.15% [19][20]. - **This Week's Outlook**: The prices of soybean meal and soybean No.1 are expected to rise. The improvement of US soybean fundamentals and positive market sentiment will support the price of soybean meal, while the price of soybean No.1 is affected by market sentiment and technical factors [24]. Corn - **Market Review**: In the spot market, corn prices fell last week. In the futures market, the price rebounded, with the C2509 contract closing at 2314 yuan/ton. The basis weakened [46][47]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn prices rose due to concerns about high - temperature weather. Wheat prices fell, and the auction of imported corn cooled down. Corn starch inventory increased slightly. The corn market is expected to continue its rebound [48][49][51]. Sugar - **This Week's Review**: Internationally, the New York raw sugar price rose 1.39%. Domestically, the Guangxi group's spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rose 16 yuan/ton. The net long position of funds increased slightly [76][77][92]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: Internationally, the sugar market will be in a low - level consolidation phase. Domestically, it will maintain an intra - strong and inter - weak pattern, with prices moving towards the cost of out - of - quota imports [78][113]. Cotton - **This Week's Review**: ICE cotton rebounded due to improved market sentiment, and domestic cotton futures rose significantly, with the 9 - 1 spread widening. The downstream yarn and grey fabric prices also followed the increase, and textile enterprises replenished raw materials [114][115]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: ICE cotton's upward momentum is limited by good growth conditions and weak consumption prospects. Domestic cotton prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, but there is a risk of decline if market sentiment cools down [119][132]. Hogs - **This Week's Review**: In the spot market, hog prices were weak. In the futures market, the LH2509 contract price was also weak, and the basis narrowed [135]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: Hog prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The supply pressure will increase in the future, and demand will be suppressed by high temperatures. The state reserve purchase policy provides a price floor [136].

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market closed mostly higher during the night session, with non-metallic building materials leading the gains [1] - Glass prices increased by 4.93%, while PVC rose by 2.32% [1] - The black series commodities generally saw increases, with coking coal up by 3.38%, coke by 2.26%, hot-rolled coil by 1.75%, rebar by 1.30%, and iron ore by 0.95% [1] Group 2 - Energy products performed strongly, with fuel oil rising by 2.01% and low-sulfur fuel oil by 1.03% [1] - Most chemical products also saw gains, including styrene up by 2.20%, butadiene rubber by 1.32%, polypropylene by 0.83%, asphalt by 0.77%, plastic by 0.75%, ethylene glycol by 0.64%, and rubber by 0.27% [1] - Oilseeds and oils showed mixed results, with palm oil up by 1.69%, soybean meal by 0.79%, soybean two by 0.62%, and soybean oil by 0.39%, while soybean one fell by 0.52% [1] Group 3 - Agricultural and sideline products experienced slight fluctuations, with pulp up by 0.64%, corn starch by 0.64%, and corn by 0.61% [1]

Report Date - The report was released on July 18, 2025 [1] Core Views Palm Oil - International Market: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures broke through the annual line resistance of 4,250 ringgit after a brief consolidation and are expected to rise further to the 4,350 - 4,400 ringgit range. After a short - term resistance, it may retrace to 4,200 ringgit. If it effectively retraces and stabilizes at 4,200 ringgit, there is still a chance to strengthen again. The upward trend remains good, and the view is mainly bullish with fluctuations [3]. - Domestic Market: The Dalian palm oil futures continued to rise due to the boost from the Malaysian market. The price is approaching 9,000 yuan and may briefly break through 9,000 yuan and even reach 9,100 yuan. It will then fluctuate around 9,000 yuan. If it effectively stands above 9,000 yuan, there is still room for further upward movement. The current strong characteristics are obvious, with a bullish view but attention should be paid to the fluctuation rhythm and whether it can break through and stand above 9,000 yuan [3]. Soybean Oil - The downstream demand for soybean oil is weak despite the rising futures price. Some traders offer fixed - price quotes, which drags down the basis quotes. In the short term, the futures still have some upward space, which will continue to affect the spot basis quotes. However, starting from August, market demand is expected to pick up, and with the expected reduction in soybean supply in the fourth quarter, the forward basis quotes will be supported [4]. Bean Meal - In addition to the influence of US soybeans, foreign capital seats such as Qiankun and Morgan significantly reduced short positions and increased long positions, with a net position shift from short to long and a daily position transfer of up to 52,000 lots. China's slow procurement progress in the fourth quarter also provides support. In the short term, attention should be paid to the previous high pressure area of 3,050 - 3,080 yuan. The spot price of oil mills increased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton, and some terminal buyers' wait - and - see attitude has loosened, with local transactions potentially increasing. However, due to the current ample supply, traders are mainly selling actively [16] Price and Spread Information Oil Price and Spread - **Palm Oil**: The prices of palm oil futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 8,776 yuan/ton, 8,548 yuan/ton, and 8,796 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.83%, 0.68%, and 0.85%. The BMD palm oil main contract is at 4,292 ringgit/ton, up 1.95%. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou is 8,940 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan [7]. - **Soybean Oil**: The prices of soybean oil futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 8,118 yuan/ton, 7,734 yuan/ton, and 8,160 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.79%, 0.73%, and 0.89%. The CBOT soybean oil main contract is at 56.15 cents/pound, up 2.71%. The price of Shandong first - grade soybean oil is 8,190 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [12]. - **Oil Spreads**: Various spreads such as P 1 - 5, P 5 - 9, Y - P 01, etc. are provided, showing different price changes and percentage changes [5] Meal Price and Spread - **Futures Prices**: The prices of bean meal futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 3,078, 2,744, and 3,056 respectively, with daily increases of 0.79%, 0.73%, and 0.89%. The prices of rapeseed meal futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2,394, 2,352, and 2,722 respectively, with daily increases of 0.29%, 0.51%, and 0.11% [17]. - **Meal Spreads**: Information on spreads such as M01 - 05, M05 - 09, RM01 - 05, etc. is provided, along with the prices of bean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions and their basis quotes [20] Other Information - The report provides price and spread data for various oil and meal products, including palm oil, soybean oil, bean meal, and rapeseed meal, as well as information on international soybean and rapeseed crushing profits sourced from Wind [5][7][12][17][20][28]

Group 1 - The domestic oilseed market shows a bullish trend, particularly in rapeseed meal futures, which experienced a price increase of 2.49%, reaching a high of 2723.00 CNY/ton [1] - The market is currently in a seasonal peak for aquaculture feed consumption, but the cost-effectiveness of rapeseed meal is considered poor, leading to price pressure from soybean meal due to seasonal inventory accumulation [1][2] - The new season's rapeseed production is expected to increase, but tight supply from the previous season keeps prices firm, with domestic rapeseed imports expected to decline significantly from July to September [2] Group 2 - The European Union and Canada are experiencing low rainfall, affecting soil moisture for canola planting, while global canola production is recovering but planting area is down year-on-year [2] - Domestic oil mills are seeing a reduction in rapeseed meal inventory, but year-on-year levels remain high, with a significant drop in imports due to high tariffs and strong old crop canola prices [2] - The market is currently facing uncertainty due to trade policies, with domestic meal prices showing stronger performance compared to international markets, and short-term price movements are expected to remain within a range [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Palm Oil**: Internationally, Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are oscillating around 4,200 ringgit, facing downward pressure due to increased production and decreased exports, and are expected to decline towards 4,000 ringgit. In the domestic market, Dalian palm oil futures are in a high - level oscillatory adjustment, likely to weaken and test the 8,500 yuan support level. If it stabilizes above 8,500 yuan, there may be a short - term rebound, but the future trend depends on Malaysian palm oil [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: Many factories are experiencing severe inventory overstock, causing traders to lower basis quotes. However, the basis of forward contracts is supported as there have been no recent US soybean purchases in the domestic market, and the import volume in the fourth quarter is uncertain. Currently, soybean oil has a price advantage among the three major domestic oils, and the basis quotes are expected to rebound after the inventory overstock issue is resolved [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: Despite the pressure on spot supply, high Brazilian premiums and the lag in fourth - quarter ship purchases have led some institutions to turn to far - month contracts. Before the Sino - US negotiations next month, the short - term main contract of Dalian soybean meal faces resistance at the 3,000 yuan integer mark. The spot supply of soybean meal is generally loose due to abundant imported soybeans from May to July and accumulated oil - mill inventories [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Oil Price and Spread - **Palm Oil Price and Spread**: Palm oil futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 8,692 yuan/ton, 8,472 yuan/ton, and 8,708 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 0.3%, - 0.24%, and - 0.46%. BMD palm oil futures rose 0.96% to 4,186 ringgit/ton. The basis of Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is 32 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [8]. - **Soybean Oil Price and Spread**: Soybean oil futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 8,000 yuan/ton, 7,654 yuan/ton, and 8,042 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 0.13%, - 0.07%, and - 0.03%. CBOT soybean oil futures rose 0.76% to 54.36 cents/pound. The basis of Shandong first - grade soybean oil is 88 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [13]. - **Oil Inter - monthly and Inter - variety Spreads**: Various spreads such as P 1 - 5, Y - P 01, etc. are provided, with different price changes and percentage changes. For example, P 1 - 5 is 226 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; Y - P 01 is - 758 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan [5]. 3.2. Oilseed Futures Price and Spread - **Oilseed Futures Price**: Futures prices of soybean meal (01, 05, 09) are 3,011, 2,700, and 2,977 respectively, with daily changes of - 4, - 2, and - 1. Futures prices of rapeseed meal (01, 05, 09) are 2,309, 2,300, and 2,653 respectively, with daily changes of - 3, - 1, and - 2. CBOT soybeans closed at 1,002.5, unchanged [18]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Spread**: Spreads such as M01 - 05, RM01 - 05, etc. are provided, with different price changes. For example, M01 - 05 is 313, down 5; RM01 - 05 is 11, up 13 [19].

Group 1: Core Views on Oils - Palm oil fundamentals are dominated by the contradiction between improved external exports and high domestic inventory. Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 increased by 5.5% - 7.5% month - on - month, and June exports surged 35% year - on - year to 1.85 million tons. However, domestic July crude palm oil inventory remained at 2.05 million tons, with a 0.5% month - on - month increase. Attention should be paid to export sustainability and domestic inventory reduction [3]. - Soybean oil fundamentals show an intensified internal - external divergence. The US Clean Energy Spending Act is expected to increase annual soybean oil demand by about 2 million tons, supporting the CBOT soybean oil. But in China, July's first - half imported soybean arrivals were about 4.5 million tons (9 million tons expected for the whole month), and soybean oil commercial inventory reached about 1.05 million tons as of July 15, increasing by 40,000 tons weekly. Key variables are US policy implementation progress and North American soybean - growing area weather [3]. - Rapeseed oil fundamentals maintain a pattern of high inventory and weak consumption, with limited policy support. Domestic East China rapeseed oil commercial inventory is above 650,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of over 85%. Downstream dealer purchases decreased by 15% month - on - month. Policy support is limited, and long - term supply contraction expectations have not materialized. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction and North American rapeseed - growing area weather [4]. Group 2: Oils Price and Spread - The table shows the month - to - month and variety - to - variety spreads of oils, including P 1 - 5, Y - P 01, etc., with corresponding prices and daily changes [5]. - Palm oil futures and spot daily prices are presented, including prices of palm oil 01, 05, 09, BMD palm oil, etc., along with their changes [8]. - Soybean oil futures and spot daily prices are provided, including prices of soybean oil 01, 05, 09, CBOT soybean oil, etc., and their changes [13]. Group 3: Oilseeds Situation - For imported soybeans, due to the appreciation of the Brazilian exchange rate and the weakening of the US soybean market, Brazilian premium quotes are rising, and there is a lack of effective buying profit in the fourth - quarter buying cycle. July arrivals are 11.5 million tons, August 11 million tons, and September 10 million tons. The fourth - quarter supply gap depends on Sino - US relations [17]. - For domestic soybean meal, supply - side pressure suppresses the spot price. With sufficient soybean raw materials, oil mill operating rates are rising, and supply exceeds demand. Demand - side physical inventory is mainly in middle - stream traders, so the basis spot price is expected to be under pressure [17]. - For rapeseed meal, inventory reduction is slow, and downstream addition ratios lack cost - effectiveness. Market reaction to Sino - Canadian meeting news is lackluster, and its market trend follows soybean meal, with a weak outlook [17]. Group 4: Oilseeds Futures Price and Spread - The table shows the closing prices, daily changes, and change rates of oilseed futures, including soybean meal 01, 05, 09 and rapeseed meal 01, 05, 09 [18]. - The table presents the spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal contracts, such as M01 - 05, RM01 - 05, etc., along with their prices and daily changes [21].