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聚酯数据日报-20251031
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 03:52
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - PTA prices quickly declined due to the lack of clear news on the "anti - involution" in the PTA industry. Although crude oil prices have been rising, PTA prices only rebounded slightly before. The polyester industry's profit is under pressure from over - capacity caused by new domestic and overseas installations. With cost support from rising crude oil prices and policy - expectation stimulus, PTA prices rebounded rapidly after long - term low - level operation. The downstream polyester operating rate remains above 91%, and recent polyester sales are relatively high. [2] - The inventory of ethylene glycol (MEG) at East China ports is still low, with limited weekly arrivals. Overseas imports of MEG are expected to decline, while domestic installations are putting pressure on prices. Coal - based MEG installations are also resuming. The overall polyester inventory is in good condition, and the downstream weaving load is maintained. However, as the polyester peak season is ending and the crude oil fundamentals are weakening, the polyester market is expected to operate weakly. [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Crude Oil and PTA - Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 462.6 yuan/barrel on October 29, 2025, to 458.9 yuan/barrel on October 30, 2025, a decrease of 3.70 yuan/barrel. PTA - SC decreased from 1274.2 yuan/ton to 1235.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39.11 yuan/ton. PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.3790 to 1.3704, a decrease of 0.0087. [2] - **PX**: CFR China PX decreased from 818 to 817, and PX - naphtha spread decreased from 249 to 246. [2] - **PTA**: PTA主力期价 dropped from 4636 yuan/ton to 4570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66.0 yuan/ton. The spot price remained unchanged at 4535 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 170.1 yuan/ton to 164.1 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased from 261.1 yuan/ton to 199.1 yuan/ton. The main - contract basis increased from (76) to (71), and the number of PTA warehouse receipts increased from 48579 to 61295. [2] - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 dropped from 4100 yuan/ton to 4032 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68.0 yuan/ton. MEG - naphtha was (120.62) yuan/ton on October 29 and (120.81) yuan/ton on October 30. MEG inner - market price decreased from 4152 to 4147, and the main - contract basis decreased from 83 to 78. [2] - **Industry Operating Rates**: PX, PTA, MEG operating rates and polyester load all remained unchanged at 86.21%, 80.09%, 64.41%, and 89.28% respectively. [2] - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, DTY150D/48F prices remained unchanged. POY, FDY, DTY cash flows increased by 1.0 respectively. The long - filament sales rate decreased from 48% to 43%. The price of 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber decreased from 6440 to 6430, and the cash flow decreased from 272 to 263. The short - fiber sales rate decreased from 43% to 42%. The price of semi - bright polyester chips remained unchanged at 5565, and the cash flow increased from (53) to (52). The chip sales rate increased from 37% to 46%. [2] 2. Device Maintenance - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked. [2]
光大期货能化商品日报-20251031
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 03:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price is expected to continue oscillating. The uncertainty in the crude oil market lies in the supply - side structural contradictions caused by sanctions, but during the current off - season of demand, the overall conflict is not obvious, and the impact on prices is relatively mild [1]. - The absolute prices of fuel oil (FU and LU), asphalt (BU), polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the fluctuations of oil prices under the influence of macro - factors [3][5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the WTI December contract rose 0.09 dollars to 60.57 dollars/barrel (0.15% increase), the Brent December contract rose 0.08 dollars to 65.00 dollars/barrel (0.12% increase), and the SC2512 closed at 461.4 yuan/barrel, down 1.1 yuan/barrel (0.28% decrease). The meeting between Chinese and US leaders and trade achievements have positive impacts, but sanctions on Russian producers and potential OPEC+ production increase add uncertainties [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2601) fell 1.43% to 2751 yuan/ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2601) rose 0.62% to 3255 yuan/ton. The Asian low - sulfur market structure has weakened due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply, while the high - sulfur market is expected to remain stable [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2601) fell 0.4% to 3254 yuan/ton. The supply pressure will ease in early November, and there are still construction rush expectations in some markets [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4570 yuan/ton, down 1.42%; EG2601 closed at 4032 yuan/ton, down 1.66%. The cost support of PX and TA has weakened, and the production and sales of polyester yarn are weak. There is still a pressure of inventory accumulation for EG in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) fell 225 yuan/ton to 15400 yuan/ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 195 yuan/ton to 12525 yuan/ton. The raw material prices of rubber are firm, demand is okay, and the postponement of tariff increase may improve demand expectations [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply in the domestic market has recovered to a high level, and overseas Iranian plants will be restricted by winter gas rationing. Although the arrival volume has decreased due to sanctions, the short - term port supply is still relatively large, and methanol is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The short - term production will remain at a high level, and the marginal increase in demand will gradually decline. The short - term rebound of crude oil supports the valuation, but the fundamental driving force is weakening, and polyolefin prices are expected to enter an oscillatory phase [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The supply remains at a high - level oscillation, domestic demand has slowed down, and exports are expected to be weak due to Indian anti - dumping policies and Sino - US trade frictions. The price has a demand for phased repair, but the rebound height is limited under high - inventory pressure [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on October 30 and 29, 2025, as well as the quantiles of the latest basis rates in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump in Busan, South Korea, and the positive results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations have alleviated concerns about the decline in economic activities caused by tariffs and trade wars [13]. - Some Indian refiners have suspended purchasing Russian oil after the US blacklisted two major Russian producers last week, but Indian Oil said it would "never stop" buying Russian crude. Traders are closely watching the next moves of Russian oil buyers [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [15][16][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: There are charts presenting the basis of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., over different time periods [33][38][40]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts of products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [48][50][53]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: There are charts depicting the spreads between different varieties such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur spreads, etc. [63][66][71]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of products like LLDPE and PP [72]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include Zhong Meiyan (Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director), Du Bingqin (Analyst for Crude Oil, etc.), Di Yilin (Analyst for Natural Rubber, etc.), and Peng Haibo (Analyst for Methanol, etc.), with their respective educational backgrounds, honors, and professional capabilities introduced [77][78][79]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, fax is 021 - 80212200, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, with a postal code of 200127 [82].
《能源化工》日报-20251031
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 02:10
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report PVC and Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market has weak demand support in the short - term due to high supply, low downstream alumina prices, and shrinking industry profits. However, there may be support in the medium - to long - term as the demand procurement cycle approaches and there may be concentrated stocking in the fourth quarter and more alumina production in the first quarter of next year [1]. - The PVC market is expected to continue the logic of a lackluster peak season. The supply has returned to a high level as some maintenance enterprises resumed production this week, while domestic downstream demand remains low, and the cost side provides only bottom - line support [1]. Polyester Industry - For PX, the short - term supply is stable with some plant overhauls offset by toluene and xylene supplements. The demand has strengthened slightly but the overall expectation is weak, and the cost support from oil prices is limited [2]. - For PTA, the spot basis is weak due to increased device loads and new production, and the expected rebound is under pressure [2]. - For ethylene glycol, the upward momentum is weakening due to port inventory changes, refinery maintenance, and falling oil prices. The far - month supply - demand structure is weak, and there is significant upward pressure [2]. - For short - fiber, the supply is high, the demand has improved marginally but the downstream's willingness to chase price increases is low. The cost support is limited, and the price is expected to face pressure in the rebound, although it is relatively stronger than raw materials due to low inventory [2]. - For bottle - chips, the demand is in the traditional off - season, and it is likely to enter a seasonal inventory accumulation period. The price mainly follows the cost side, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply of pure benzene in China is abundant with device restarts and new capacity expectations. The demand support is limited as most downstream products are in the red and some secondary - downstream inventories are high. The overall supply - demand expectation is loose, and the price drive is limited [5]. - Styrene is under pressure from inventory and industry profits. Although there are more planned and unplanned device shutdowns, new production from some plants maintains supply pressure. The demand support is limited as downstream industries mainly make rigid purchases due to high finished - product inventories. The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the rebound is expected to face pressure [5]. Methanol - The port methanol market is under significant pressure due to high inventory and weak demand, resulting in a decline in both price and basis. The inland market has weak sales as producers offer discounts and downstream buyers are hesitant. The demand side is weak as multiple MTO units reduce loads and plan more maintenance. The short - term price is expected to continue to decline, and attention should be paid to port inventory reduction and overseas gas restriction expectations [7][8]. Polyolefins - For PP, the supply recovery is slow due to more unplanned maintenance. For PE, the maintenance is peaking, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand side has improved with rising downstream operating rates, especially in the agricultural film sector. Both inventories are decreasing. The 01 contract still has inventory pressure, while the 05 contract may offer long - term low - buying opportunities [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC and Caustic Soda Prices - The price of Shandong 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged on October 30 compared to October 29. The price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 0.9% [1]. - Among futures, SH2509 increased by 0.4%, SH2601 decreased by 1.9%, V2509 decreased by - 0.3%, and V2601 decreased by - 0.2% [1]. Supply - The caustic soda industry's operating rate increased by 0.1% to 85.6% on October 24 compared to October 17, and the Shandong sample operating rate increased by 3.2% to 86.6%. The total PVC operating rate decreased by 1.9% to 73.7% [1]. Demand - The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda, such as the viscose staple fiber industry, remained unchanged, while the printing and dyeing industry's operating rate increased by 0.8%. For PVC, the operating rates of downstream products such as pipes and profiles increased, and the pre - sales volume increased by 14.4% [1]. Inventory - The liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories and Shandong decreased by 3.8% and 8.1% respectively. The PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 7.4%, and the total social inventory decreased by 0.3% [1]. Polyester Industry Upstream Prices - PX futures 2512 decreased by 0.8%, PX12 - PX01 decreased by 1.7%, and the PX - crude oil spread decreased by 0.5% on October 30 compared to October 29 [2]. Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - The cash flow of FDY150/96 increased by - 0.5%, the polyester bottle - chip processing fee increased by 5.3%, and the bottle - chip futures PR2601 price decreased by 1.0% [2]. Operating Rates - The PTA operating rate increased by 2.1% to 78.8%, the MEG comprehensive operating rate decreased by 5.0% to 73.3%, and the direct - spinning short - fiber operating rate remained unchanged at 94.3% [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (December) increased by 0.1%, WTI crude oil (December) increased by 0.1%, and CFR Japan naphtha increased by 0.3% on October 30 compared to October 29 [5]. Product Prices and Spreads - The pure benzene East - China spot price decreased by 0.4%, the styrene East - China spot price decreased by 1.2%, and the EB cash flow (non - integrated) decreased by 36.0% [5]. Operating Rates - The domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 3.6% to 72.7%, the styrene operating rate decreased by 3.7% to 69.3%, and the downstream PS operating rate remained unchanged at 53.8% [5]. Inventory - The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 14.1% to 8.50 tons, and the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 4.7% to 19.30 tons [5]. Methanol Prices - MA2601 decreased by 2.17% to 2208 yuan/ton, MA2605 decreased by 1.59% to 2284 yuan/ton, and the port Taicang spot price decreased by 1.14% to 2175 yuan/ton on October 30 compared to October 29 [6]. Inventory - The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 4.36% to 37.606%, the port inventory decreased by 0.38% to 150.6 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.53% to 188.3% [7]. Operating Rates - The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.09% to 75.78%, the upstream overseas enterprise operating rate decreased by 2.37% to 73.3%, and the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate increased by 7.63% to 84.06% [8]. Polyolefins Prices - L2601 decreased by 0.58% to 7015, PP2601 decreased by 0.51% to 6651, and the East - China PP拉丝 spot price decreased by 0.76% to 6510 on October 30 compared to October 29 [10]. Operating Rates - The PE device operating rate decreased by 0.37% to 81.5%, the PE downstream weighted operating rate increased by 1.85% to 45.8%, the PP device operating rate decreased by 2.9% to 75.9%, and the PP powder device operating rate increased by 7.1% to 41.4% [10]. Inventory - The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 19.16% to 41.6 tons, the PE social inventory decreased by 0.04% to 54.5 tons, the PP enterprise inventory decreased by 6.80% to 59.56 tons, and the PP trader inventory decreased by 10.48% to 21.4 tons [10].
龙头企业座谈会召开 聚酯行业“反内卷”成效初显
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-10-31 00:00
Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting among PTA and bottle chip industry leaders is seen as a crucial step to mitigate "involution" competition and promote stable industry operations amid supply-demand mismatches and low profits [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The polyester industry is currently in a phase of concentrated capacity investment, with poor profitability reported across the sector [1] - PTA's average operating load is below 80% this year, with spot processing margins dropping to as low as 100 yuan/ton, significantly below normal processing cost levels [1] - The bottle chip industry is also struggling, with average spot processing margins around 400 yuan/ton, dipping below 300 yuan/ton at times, leading to cash flow losses for companies [1] Group 2: Capacity and Utilization - Despite low processing fees, significant capacity clearance in the PTA and bottle chip sectors is unlikely in the short term due to the relatively recent investment in capacity [2] - Current capacity utilization in the polyester industry is better than the previous downturn cycle (2014-2015), and remains among the highest compared to other domestic industrial products [2] Group 3: Industry Response - The polyester industry, particularly the bottle chip sector, has begun to implement "anti-involution" measures, including increasing maintenance frequency and duration, as well as coordinated production cuts among suppliers [2] - The processing margin for bottle chips has improved, reaching a peak of over 550 yuan/ton in mid-October, attributed to industry self-discipline and profit recovery [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - Recent strength in the polyester sector, including rapid rebounds in PX and PTA futures, is driven by cost support from rising oil prices, increased demand for pre-holiday stocking, and positive market expectations following the industry meeting [3] - However, there are concerns about potential declines in textile and apparel production loads in November, which may limit the recovery of polyester processing margins [3] - Future improvements in the polyester industry are expected as capacity investment slows and consumption rebounds, but achieving good profitability will take time [3][4]
龙头企业座谈会召开!聚酯行业“反内卷”成效初显
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-10-30 23:33
Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting among PTA and bottle chip industry leaders is seen as a crucial step to mitigate "involution" competition and promote stable industry operations amid supply-demand mismatches and low profits [1][2]. Industry Overview - The polyester industry is currently in a phase of concentrated capacity investment, with poor profitability reported across the sector. However, the PX segment maintains a good capacity utilization rate, while PTA faces operational challenges due to intense competition [1]. - PTA's average operating load this year is reported to be below 80%, with spot processing margins dropping to as low as 100 yuan/ton, significantly below normal processing cost levels, leading to potential losses for companies [1][2]. Market Dynamics - Despite low processing fees in the PTA and bottle chip sectors, significant capacity clearance is unlikely in the short term due to the relatively recent investment in capacity. However, the current capacity utilization is better than the previous downturn cycle (2014-2015) [2]. - The polyester industry has begun to implement "anti-involution" measures, such as increasing maintenance frequency and duration, and collaborative production cuts among suppliers, which have led to a recovery in processing margins [2]. Recent Trends - The polyester sector has shown strength recently, with PX and PTA futures rebounding quickly, driven by cost support from rising crude oil prices and increased demand in anticipation of the "Double 11" shopping festival [3]. - The market expects that the meeting among industry leaders will lead to measures aimed at reducing losses, although there are concerns about potential declines in textile and apparel production loads in November [3]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that if new PTA and bottle chip capacities slow down next year while demand stabilizes, the supply-demand structure for both could improve. However, the industry still faces seasonal pressures and inventory accumulation in the short term [4]. - As previously invested capacities are gradually digested and competition among leading companies stabilizes, the polyester industry is expected to focus more on improving operational efficiency and optimizing balance sheets [4].
桐昆股份(601233):短期聚酯板块略有拖累,看好长丝行业竞争格局优化
Xinda Securities· 2025-10-30 12:02
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights a slight decline in operating performance due to a drag from the polyester sector, with a focus on the long filament industry's competitive landscape improvement [2][3] - The company reported a revenue of 67.397 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 11.38%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 53.83% to 1.549 billion yuan [2][3] - The report anticipates a recovery in the long filament market driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and the company's competitive advantages as a market leader [4][6] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 1.549 billion yuan, with a basic earnings per share (EPS) of 0.65 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 54.76% [2][3] - The average prices of key raw materials such as PX, MEG, and PTA decreased by 17.13%, 0.92%, and 17.18% respectively, while the prices of main products POY, FDY, and DTY fell by 9.55%, 15.38%, and 9.94% respectively [3] - The report projects the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 2.087 billion, 2.788 billion, and 3.416 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 73.7%, 33.6%, and 22.5% [6] Industry Outlook - The report notes that the polyester sector is experiencing a seasonal slowdown, but the long filament market is expected to see a gradual recovery as downstream demand improves [3][4] - The competitive landscape in the long filament industry is anticipated to strengthen, with the market leader's advantages becoming more pronounced as smaller players exit the market [4][6] - The report indicates that the average operating rate of textile enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has risen to approximately 69%, suggesting a recovery in industry activity [4]
荣盛石化(002493):业绩超预期,反内卷有望推动景气复苏
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-30 11:46
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Rongsheng Petrochemical, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance relative to the market [5]. Core Insights - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with a notable recovery in profitability driven by the refining sector and a potential recovery in the polyester market due to policy changes aimed at reducing competition [5]. - The report highlights a significant increase in net profit for Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 1427.94%, indicating strong operational performance [5]. - Future growth is anticipated from new material projects and a partnership with Saudi Aramco, which is expected to enhance the company's long-term growth prospects [5]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 343.298 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.2% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to reach 2.936 billion in 2025, reflecting a substantial increase of 305.3% compared to the previous year [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.29 in 2025, with a projected increase to 0.75 by 2027 [4]. - The report notes a gross margin of 10.7% for 2025, with an anticipated improvement in return on equity (ROE) to 6.3% [4]. Market Context - The report discusses the impact of Brent crude oil prices on refining margins, with a calculated refining price difference of 1471 yuan/ton for Q3 2025, indicating a favorable market environment for the refining sector [5]. - The polyester market is currently facing challenges due to oversupply, but the report suggests that internal industry cooperation may lead to a recovery in profitability [5]. - The anticipated "anti-involution" policies are expected to facilitate the exit of less competitive refineries, thereby improving the overall refining landscape [5].
桐昆股份(601233):Q3聚酯景气承压,反内卷有望加速行业修复
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-30 10:38
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233) [6] Core Views - The polyester industry is currently under pressure, but the "anti-involution" policy is expected to accelerate industry recovery [6] - The company's Q3 performance was slightly below expectations, with a revenue of 67.397 billion yuan, down 11.38% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 53.83% to 1.549 billion yuan [6] - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in profitability for the polyester segment due to reduced capital expenditures and favorable industry policies [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 102.542 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.2% [5] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 2.127 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 77.0% [5] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 5.8% in Q1-Q3 2025 to 7.6% in 2026 [5] - The report highlights a decrease in polyester filament sales volume in Q3 2025, which reached 3.19 million tons, down 7.5% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The PTA industry is facing continued pressure, but a rebound is anticipated as leading companies enter a phase of coordinated production cuts [6]
荣盛石化(002493):业绩超预期,“反内卷”有望推动景气复苏
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-30 09:45
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with a notable recovery in profitability driven by the "anti-involution" policy, which is expected to boost industry recovery [6] - The report highlights a potential improvement in refining margins and polyester market conditions, suggesting a favorable outlook for the company's future performance [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 343.298 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.2% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 2.936 billion in 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 305.3% [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to reach 0.29 in 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 35 [5] - The company achieved a gross margin of 12.19% in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 0.48 percentage points [6] Market and Industry Analysis - The report indicates that the refining sector is showing signs of recovery, with Brent oil prices increasing and a projected refining margin of 1,471 yuan/ton in Q3 2025, up 202 yuan/ton from the previous quarter [6] - The polyester market is currently facing challenges due to oversupply, but the "anti-involution" policy is expected to lead to coordinated production cuts, which may improve market conditions [6] - The company's new materials projects and collaboration with Saudi Aramco are anticipated to enhance future growth prospects [6]
桐昆股份(601233):Q3聚酯景气承压,“反内卷”有望加速行业修复
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-30 08:48
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The polyester industry is experiencing pressure, but the "anti-involution" trend is expected to accelerate industry recovery [1] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 67.397 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.549 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.83% [7] - The third quarter saw a decline in polyester demand due to seasonal factors, with a significant drop in sales volume [7] - The PTA industry continues to face pressure from excess supply, but a rebound is anticipated as major players begin to reduce production [7] - Investment income from Zhejiang Petrochemical has improved, indicating potential for future profitability [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 102.542 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.2% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 2.127 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 77.0% [6] - The company's gross margin for Q3 2025 was 4.01%, down 2 percentage points from the previous quarter [7] - The report forecasts earnings per share of 0.88 yuan for 2025, with a PE ratio of 17 [6]