聚酯板块周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20250725 张伟伟 从业资格证号：F0269806 投资咨询证号：Z0002796 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 宏观及原油重要资讯一览 市场人士表示，美国特朗普政府准备向委内瑞拉国家石油公司的主要合作伙伴授予新的授权，由雪佛龙开始，允许他们在受到制裁的委内瑞 拉进行有限度的运营。 2 美国总统特朗普宣称已与日本达成贸易协议，对日本进口商品征收15%的关税，日本将向美国投资5500亿美元，并向美国开放汽车、农产品 等相关领域。另有关消息称，美国接近与欧盟达成贸易协议，将对欧洲进口商品征收15%的关税，双方将免除一些产品的关税，包括飞机、 烈酒和医疗设备。 3 国务院副总理何立峰将于7月27日至30日赴瑞典与美方举行经贸会谈，这是继日内瓦和伦敦会谈后的第三次高级别磋商，美国财政部长贝森特、 商务部长卢特尼克和贸易代表格里尔共同参与。 4 EIA数据显示，上周美国原油库存减少320万桶，至4.19亿桶，是分析师预期减少160万桶的两倍。当周，美国汽油库存减少170万桶，此前市 场预期为减少90万桶；包括柴油和取暖油的馏分油库存增加290万桶，此前市场预期为减少10万桶。 5 24 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, methanol, urea, rubber, PVC, styrene, polyolefins, and polyester. It believes that in the context of low Cushing inventories, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum, but the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. For other products, it provides specific analyses based on factors such as supply, demand, cost, and inventory, and gives corresponding investment suggestions [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.74, or 1.13%, to $66.16; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.69, or 1.00%, to $69.36; INE main crude oil futures rose 6.60 yuan, or 1.27%, to 527 yuan [1]. - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.74 million barrels to 12.97 million barrels, a 6.02% increase; diesel inventories decreased by 1.19 million barrels to 7.87 million barrels, a 13.15% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.31 million barrels to 23.70 million barrels, a 1.34% increase; total refined oil inventories decreased by 0.14 million barrels to 44.54 million barrels, a 0.32% decrease [1]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Given the low Cushing inventories, hurricane expectations, and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A target price of $70/barrel for WTI in the September hurricane season is set, and it is recommended to buy on dips and take profits [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, the 09 contract rose 69 yuan/ton to 2480 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 48 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 15 [4]. - **Analysis**: The market is significantly driven by news, with increased volatility and operational difficulty. The upstream operating rate continues to decline, and profits have slightly decreased but remain at a relatively high level. Overseas plant operating rates have returned to medium - high levels, and market fluctuations have narrowed. The port olefin load has increased this week, while traditional demand is in the off - season, with the operating rates of formaldehyde and acetic acid decreasing and those of chlorides and MTBE increasing. The overall demand is weak. After the methanol price decline, downstream profits have been repaired but remain at a low level, and the methanol spot valuation is still high. In the off - season, the upside is expected to be limited. The domestic market is likely to show a pattern of weak supply and demand in the future, and it is recommended to wait and see after a sharp rise [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, the 09 contract rose 12 yuan/ton to 1785 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 15 [6]. - **Analysis**: Affected by the deepening of the domestic anti - involution policy, the domestic industrial products have risen sharply, and urea has also increased significantly. However, most fixed - bed plants have completed technological upgrades, and it is mainly affected by short - term sentiment. The domestic operating rate has slightly decreased, and the overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level, with cost support expected to gradually strengthen. The compound fertilizer operating rate has bottomed out and rebounded, and the subsequent operating rate will continue to increase, which will support the demand for urea. Export containerization continues, and port inventories continue to rise. The domestic urea supply and demand are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. Currently, the urea valuation is neutral to low, and the supply - demand margin is expected to improve. It is more advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips and not to chase the market when the price rises [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: After continuous rises, NR and RU showed volatile trends, and the bullish sentiment in the commodity market has weakened [8]. - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that the weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may contribute to rubber production cuts, the seasonal trend usually turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that the macro - economic outlook is uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [15]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Rubber prices are likely to rise rather than fall in the second half of the year. A long - term bullish view should be maintained, and positions should be built at appropriate times. In the short term, due to the large increase, the risk of a pullback should be guarded against. A neutral approach is recommended, with quick entry and exit. There is an opportunity to increase positions in the spread operation of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 87 yuan to 5238 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 5090 (+20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 148 (-67) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 114 (+4) yuan/ton [13]. - **Analysis**: The cost side remains stable, the overall PVC operating rate has increased, the downstream operating rate has decreased, factory inventories have decreased, and social inventories have increased. Corporate profits have continued to improve, the number of maintenance operations has gradually decreased, and production is at a five - year high. In the short term, multiple sets of plants will be put into operation. The domestic downstream operating rate is at a five - year low and is still in the off - season. The anti - dumping extension in India has marginally improved the pessimistic expectations, and the cost support has weakened. The pessimistic expectations in the fundamentals have improved due to the extension of the anti - dumping in India, but there are still pressures in supply - demand and valuation. In the short term, the price is strong under the stimulation of the anti - dumping extension and anti - involution sentiment, and the risk of sentiment fading should be guarded against [13]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [15]. - **Analysis**: After the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the China Iron and Steel Association issued statements on the anti - involution policy, the coal sector rose and then stabilized, and the cost side still has support. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period. The bullish view is based on demand expectations and production cut expectations, while the bearish view is based on the falsification of demand. The cost side of pure benzene has increased its operating rate, and the supply is relatively abundant. The supply - side profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has decreased, but the styrene operating rate has continued to rise. Styrene port inventories have increased significantly. In the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products has fluctuated and increased. In the short term, the BZN spread may be repaired, and the styrene price is expected to follow the cost side [15][17]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [19]. - **Analysis**: The black sector rose and then stabilized, and the cost side still has support. The polyethylene spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. Trader inventories are fluctuating at a high level, and the support for prices has weakened. In the seasonal off - season, the demand - side agricultural film orders are fluctuating at a low level, and the overall operating rate is declining. The short - term contradiction has shifted from the cost - driven downward trend to the high - maintenance - driven inventory reduction. With the commissioning of the Huizhou ExxonMobil ethylene plant in July, the polyethylene price is expected to fluctuate downward. It is recommended to hold short positions [19]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [20]. - **Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover, with the marginal return of propylene supply. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate is seasonally declining. In the seasonal off - season, under the background of weak supply and demand, the polypropylene price is expected to be bearish in July [20]. Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 96 yuan to 6956 yuan, the PX CFR rose 14 dollars to 856 dollars, the basis was 87 (+16) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 108 (+24) yuan [22]. - **Analysis**: The PX maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. The downstream PTA maintenance season is also over, and the load level is high. The processing fee has been repaired, and the inventory level is low. Even though the polyester and terminal sectors are in the off - season, the short - term negative feedback pressure on PX is still small. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue to reduce inventories. The current valuation is at a neutral level, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following the crude oil price [22][23]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 66 yuan to 4850 yuan, the East China spot price rose 5 yuan to 4815 yuan, the basis was 0 (-2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 26 (+22) yuan [24]. - **Analysis**: The PTA load remains unchanged. The downstream load has increased. The social inventory has increased. The spot processing fee has decreased, and the futures processing fee has increased. In the future, the supply - side maintenance volume in July is small, and new plants will be put into operation, with expected continuous inventory accumulation. The PTA processing fee repair space is limited. The demand side is under pressure in the off - season. Due to the low inventory level and the repair of the processing fee, the upward negative feedback pressure is expected to be small. The PXN has support under the pattern improvement brought about by PTA commissioning. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following PX [24]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 49 yuan to 4485 yuan, the East China spot price rose 29 yuan to 4530 yuan, the basis was 58 (-4) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 3 (-3) yuan [25]. - **Analysis**: The supply - side load has increased, the downstream load has increased, the import arrival forecast is 15.7 million tons, the East China departure volume on July 23 was 0.8 million tons, and the warehouse - out volume has increased. The port inventory has decreased by 2 million tons. The naphtha - based production profit is - 279 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit is - 556 yuan, and the coal - based production profit is 955 yuan. The cost side of ethylene remains unchanged, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal fines has increased. The overseas and domestic maintenance plants are gradually starting, and the downstream operating rate is continuously declining due to the off - season. The port inventory reduction is expected to gradually slow down. The valuation is relatively high compared to the same period. The maintenance season is gradually ending, and the fundamentals are changing from strong to weak. However, recently, under the consistent weak expectations, the actual operating rate has exceeded expectations. The unexpected situation of Saudi plants has led to a decrease in import expectations, and multiple domestic plants have had unexpected situations, combined with the low arrival volume, resulting in a reduction in low - level inventories. The short - term valuation has upward support [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The market saw double destocking in both inland and ports. Reasons include slower port unloading and improved MTO profits leading to port purchases. Inland prices fluctuated slightly, with high maintenance losses in July and复产 expectations later. Demand was restricted by the traditional off - season, and new capacity launches affected the market. In ports, the basis strengthened, and with the return of Iranian production, imports were expected to be 1.25 million tons in July and decline slightly in August. MTO maintenance was uncertain after profit repair [1]. - **Urea**: The market was in a state of 'strong expectation vs. weak reality'. The potential for large - scale and long - term maintenance in major production areas was a potential positive factor, but demand was in a lull. The market was mainly affected by the contradiction between supply contraction expectations and weak actual demand, and policy sentiment also had an impact. Future price breakthroughs depend on substantial improvement in demand [16]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: In July, the supply - demand outlook for pure benzene improved slightly, but with high import expectations and port inventory, its own driving force was limited. Short - term trends may be under pressure. For styrene, the supply - demand outlook was weak, port inventory increased, and the basis weakened. Short - term trends may also be under pressure [18]. - **Polyolefins**: In terms of valuation, marginal profits were gradually recovering, but supply and demand for PP and PE both contracted, and inventories accumulated while demand remained weak. In the dynamic dimension, PP maintenance reached its peak, PE maintenance first increased and then decreased, and imports were still scarce. There was a seasonal improvement in demand at the end of July. Strategically, the market sentiment was warm, with PP expected to fluctuate weakly and PE to be bought within a range [22]. - **Crude Oil**: Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly due to the structural contradiction between crude oil destocking and macro - level suppression of long - term demand. Although EIA data showed a large reduction in crude oil inventory, the inventory structure was differentiated. The market was also concerned about tariff frictions, which restricted the upward space of oil prices. Short - term trends were likely to maintain a weak oscillation [25]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: For PX, although supply was generally stable, demand support was limited, and short - term trends may be under pressure. PTA supply - demand was expected to be weak, and short - term trends may also face pressure. MEG supply - demand was expected to improve in the short term, with support at the bottom. Short - fiber supply and demand were both weak, and the absolute price fluctuated with raw materials. Bottle - chip supply - demand showed some improvement, but absolute prices still followed raw materials [29]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: For caustic soda, the supply - demand contradiction was limited, but high profits led to high production. Downstream non - aluminum demand was in a relative off - season, but there was phased restocking. Short - term macro - level disturbances increased trading risks, and it was recommended to take profits on previous long positions. For PVC, the market was in a season of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with no significant improvement in fundamentals. Short - term trading was mainly affected by macro - level sentiment, and it was recommended to wait and see [47]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2509 closing prices decreased, while the MA91 spread and some regional spreads changed. Spot prices in different regions also showed various fluctuations [1]. - **Inventory**: Middle - sized methanol enterprises' inventory, port inventory, and social inventory all decreased [1]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rates decreased, while some downstream operating rates had different changes [1]. Urea - **Futures**: Futures closing prices of different contracts decreased, and contract spreads changed [9][10]. - **Positions**: Long and short positions of the top 20 decreased, and the long - short ratio slightly increased [11]. - **Raw Materials and Spot**: Some upstream raw material prices were stable, while spot prices in different regions showed small fluctuations [12]. - **Downstream Products**: Prices of some downstream products were stable, and the fertilizer market also had price changes [14][15]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, plant operating rates, and inventory levels had different changes [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices, and prices of related products such as CFR Japan naphtha and CFR Northeast Asia ethylene changed. Spreads between products also changed [18]. - **Styrene - Related**: Styrene spot and futures prices decreased, and related spreads and cash flows changed [18]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene and styrene port inventories increased, and industry operating rates had different trends [18]. Polyolefins - **Futures and Spot**: Futures closing prices of different contracts decreased, and spot prices in different regions also declined. Spreads and basis also changed [22]. - **Operating Rates and Inventory**: PE and PP device operating rates decreased, and inventory levels in different sectors increased [22]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices and related spreads changed [25]. - **Refined Oil**: Refined oil prices, spreads, and cracking spreads had different fluctuations [25]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Upstream raw material prices such as Brent crude oil and PX changed, and downstream polyester product prices and cash flows also showed various trends [29]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: MEG port inventory and arrival expectations, and industry operating rates in different segments had different changes [29]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures**: Spot and futures prices of PVC and caustic soda changed, and spreads and basis also had different trends [47]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply - side operating rates and profit levels, and demand - side downstream operating rates and inventory levels had different changes [47].

宏观情绪提振，聚酯产业链偏强运行 市场要闻与数据 1、上周五，工信部消息称钢铁、有色、石化等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案即将出台。工业和信息化部将推动重 点行业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能。20年前投产的装置可能被定义为老旧产能，在此消息下市场得以提 振。 整体来看，聚酯品种中20年以上产能占比从高到低分别为：PF 47.3%、MEG 6.6%、PX 5.1%、PR 4.4%、PTA 0%。 仅有短纤PF占比较高，其他占比均在10%以下，并且大多已处于停车或低负荷运行状态。PF由于缺乏统计资料， 其应该也有部分装置已停产，实际运行中的装置占比应低于统计值。 2、另外国家能源局发布核查通知，超能力生产煤矿一律责令停产整改，成本端煤炭价格上涨。 市场分析 成本端，原油维持强现实、弱预期，近日原油市场消息面较为平淡，中期基本面预期依然不佳。 化工日报 | 2025-07-23 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN269美元/吨(环比变动+6.50美元/吨）。近期亚洲PX负荷基本持稳，国内盛虹炼化因CDU 故障导致下游重整以及PX负荷下滑，但镇海以及中金负荷上升弥补部分供应损失。PTA基差以及加工差也企稳小 幅反弹，PXN ...

1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views PVC and Caustic Soda - The caustic soda futures market is boosted by policies, with expectations of industry capacity - reduction. Spot transactions are average, and prices in Shandong and Guangdong have decreased. Low - grade caustic soda has low inventory in most enterprises due to alumina demand, but non - aluminum downstream resists high prices. Short - term macro disturbances increase trading risks, and it is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and wait and see [2][4]. - The PVC futures market is also boosted by policies, with expectations of industry capacity - reduction. The spot market has light transactions and little price fluctuation. It is in a slack season with increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. Short - term trading is more influenced by macro - sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Methanol - In the inland market, methanol prices fluctuate slightly. Supply may increase as the maintenance losses in July are high but there are expectations of resumption. Demand is restricted by the traditional off - season, and new capacity launch affects the market. At the port, the basis strengthens, Iranian device production returns, and imports are expected to be 1.25 million tons in July and slightly decline in August. There may be inventory accumulation from July to August due to the combination of import recovery and olefin maintenance [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Although some PX devices have load fluctuations, and terminal demand feedback is negative, PX supply is still expected to be tight, and PXN has some support. The short - term PX09 is expected to operate in the range of 6,600 - 6,900 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the upper - limit pressure [10]. - PTA: The current PTA load is around 80% with new device launch expectations, and terminal demand is weak. Considering the tight PX supply and the strong domestic commodity market sentiment, the TA09 - TA01 spread can be rolled in a reverse way, and the PTA processing fee around 250 yuan/ton can be used for short - selling attempts [10]. - Ethylene Glycol: Multiple coal - based ethylene glycol devices stopped unexpectedly in mid - July, leading to lower - than - expected supply increase and reduced import expectations. Short - term port inventory is expected to remain low, and the short - term EG2509 - P - 4300 put option seller can hold the position [10]. - Short - fiber: Although short - fiber factories plan to cut production in July, the overall supply and demand are weak in the short term, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials [10]. - Bottle - chip: July is the peak season for soft - drink consumption, and there are expectations of improved demand. However, considering the high historical supply level, attention should be paid to whether the device production cuts increase and the downstream follow - up situation [10]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly, mainly due to macro - pressure. The approaching US trade negotiation deadline on August 1st has not alleviated the macro - tension, and the threat of a 30% tariff may suppress oil demand. Although there are expectations of a decline in US crude oil inventory, trade tariff uncertainties are the core contradiction. It is recommended to adopt a short - term band - trading strategy, with support levels at [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [498, 505] for SC. Options can be used to capture volatility opportunities [13][14]. Urea - The core driver of the urea futures market comes from macro - policies. Policies to optimize the industrial structure and eliminate backward production capacity are considered beneficial to the urea industry. Export data shows weakness, and the market focuses on new policy support. The futures price stimulates the spot trading atmosphere, and the basis is expected to be repaired. In the short term, there is no significant reduction in demand and capacity. In the long term, the transformation of coal - based urea capacity structure may be promoted. Attention should be paid to export quota implementation, trading volume recovery, and market expectations [15]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - In terms of valuation, the marginal profit is gradually recovering, and both PE and PP have supply - demand contraction and inventory accumulation, with weak demand. PP maintenance has reached its peak, PE maintenance first increases and then decreases, and there are few import offers. Demand is expected to pick up seasonally at the end of July. Strategically, the market sentiment is warm, PP is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see for short positions, while PE can be bought in the range [20]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in July. Although there is news of production cuts from some devices, the impact on loss volume is limited. Downstream price transmission is poor except for styrene, and import expectations are high with high port inventory. Short - term pure benzene may be boosted by the strong domestic commodity market, but the rebound space is limited. The main contract BZ2603 follows the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [25]. - Styrene: The styrene industry has high - level operation with maintained profits. The basis of near - month contracts weakens, and the profits of some downstream industries are slightly repaired. The supply - demand situation is marginally improved but still weak in expectation, and port inventory continues to increase. Short - term styrene is boosted by the market, but the increase is limited due to weak supply - demand expectations and high valuation. The EB09 is expected to operate in the range of 7,100 - 7,500 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 7,500 yuan/ton and short - selling opportunities. The EB - BZ spread can be shorted at high levels [25]. 3. Summaries by Catalog PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price Changes**: Shandong 50% caustic soda price decreased by 2.2% from July 21st to July 22nd; East China calcium - carbide - based PVC price increased by 0.8%. Some futures contracts such as SH2509 and V2509 also had significant price increases [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate increased by 1.3% from July 11th to July 18th, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.1% [2]. - **Demand**: The alumina industry's operating rate increased by 1.0%, and the viscose staple fiber industry's operating rate increased by 8.7% from July 11th to July 18th. The PVC downstream product operating rate showed mixed trends [3][4]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories and Shandong increased, while the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased, and the total social inventory increased [4]. Methanol - **Price Changes**: MA2601 and MA2509 prices increased by 2.18% and 1.91% respectively from July 21st to July 22nd. The basis and regional spreads also changed [7]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 1.28%, and port inventory increased by 9.92% [7]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.94%, and some downstream operating rates such as MTBE increased, while others like formaldehyde decreased [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased, and prices of other upstream products such as CFR Japan naphtha and CFR China MX also had different degrees of decline [10]. - **PX - Related**: CFR China PX price increased by 0.1%, and PX basis, spreads, and processing fees changed [10]. - **PTA - Related**: PTA spot price decreased by 0.2%, and futures prices increased slightly. PTA processing fees decreased [10]. - **MEG - Related**: MEG spot price increased by 0.4%, and futures prices also increased. MEG basis and spreads changed [10]. Crude Oil - **Price Changes**: Brent oil price decreased by 0.90%, and WTI oil price increased by 0.52% on July 23rd compared to July 22nd. Spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 also changed [13]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.28%, and ICE Gasoil decreased by 2.12%. Refined oil spreads also had different changes [13]. Urea - **Price Changes**: The synthetic ammonia price in Shandong increased by 1.54%, and some urea spot prices in different regions increased slightly [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production decreased slightly, and factory inventory decreased, while port inventory increased [17]. - **Market Sentiment**: The futures market is affected by policies, and the spot market trading atmosphere is stimulated [17]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - **Price Changes**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 prices increased, and spot prices of华东PP拉丝 and华北LLDPE膜料 also increased [20]. - **Operating Rates**: PE and PP device operating rates increased slightly, and some downstream operating rates changed [20]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise inventories increased [20]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased, and CFR Japan naphtha price decreased by 1.2% [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The CFR China pure benzene price increased by 0.5%, and the pure benzene basis and import profit changed [24]. - **Styrene**: The styrene East China spot price decreased by 0.8%, and styrene basis, spreads, and cash - flow changed [24]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene and styrene port inventories increased, and the operating rates of related industries changed [25].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report PVC and Caustic Soda - The futures market was boosted by relevant policies, and there are expectations for industry capacity reduction. The caustic soda spot market had average transactions, with prices in Shandong and Guangdong decreasing. Low - concentration caustic soda has low inventory due to alumina demand, but non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices. The PVC spot market had light transactions, and the current supply - demand pattern is in the off - season of increasing supply and decreasing demand. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions in caustic soda and temporarily observe for PVC [6]. Methanol - Inland prices fluctuated slightly. Supply had high maintenance losses in July but there are expectations of resumption. Demand is restricted by the traditional off - season. At the port, the basis strengthened, overseas Iranian device production returned, and there will be inventory accumulation from July to August. It is recommended to observe the market [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is less affected, but demand support is weak. PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak, while ethylene glycol supply - demand is expected to improve in the short term. Short - fiber supply and demand are both weak, and bottle - chip supply - demand has improvement expectations but is still affected by high supply and inventory. Different strategies are recommended for each product [11]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly due to macro - pressure. The approaching US trade negotiation deadline and the lack of progress in negotiations have suppressed demand expectations. Although there are expectations of a decline in US crude oil inventory, trade tariff uncertainty is the core contradiction. It is recommended to adopt short - term band strategies [16]. Urea - The core driver of the urea futures market comes from macro - policies. Although export data shows weakness, policy news boosts market sentiment. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [24][25]. Polyolefins - The marginal profit of PP and PE is gradually recovering, and supply and demand are both contracting, with inventory accumulation and weak demand. At the end of July, demand is expected to pick up seasonally. It is recommended to be short - biased on PP and buy within the range for PE [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to improve slightly, but its own driving force is limited due to high import expectations and port inventory. Short - term pure benzene may be boosted but with limited rebound space. The supply - demand of styrene is marginally repaired but still weak, and its increase is limited. Different strategies are recommended for each [31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the price of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda decreased by 2.2%, and the price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 0.8%. Futures prices generally rose, and basis and spreads changed significantly [2]. - **Supply**: From July 11 to July 18, the caustic soda industry's operating rate increased by 1.3%, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.1%. The profit of externally - purchased calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 2.0% [4]. - **Demand**: From July 11 to July 18, the alumina industry's operating rate increased by 1.0%, and the viscose staple fiber industry's operating rate increased by 8.7%. The operating rate of PVC downstream products such as profiles decreased [5][6]. - **Inventory**: From July 10 to July 17, the inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories and Shandong increased, while the upstream factory inventory of PVC decreased, and the total social inventory increased [6]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 increased, and the basis and spreads changed. Regional spot prices also had different changes [8]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of methanol decreased by 1.28%, and the port and social inventories increased [8]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.94%, and some downstream operating rates changed, such as the MTBE operating rate increasing by 3.46% [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the prices of most polyester products and upstream raw materials such as crude oil and naphtha changed slightly. PX, PTA, and other prices and spreads also had corresponding adjustments [11]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of Asian and Chinese PX, PTA, and MEG all had different degrees of change, and the comprehensive operating rate of polyester decreased by 0.5% [11]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory decreased by 3.6% from July 14 to July 21 [11]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 23, compared with July 22, Brent crude oil decreased by 0.90%, WTI increased by 0.52%. Spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 also changed [16]. - **Product Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and ICE Gasoil had different changes, and the spreads also changed [16]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the futures prices of urea contracts generally increased, and spot prices in different regions also had small increases [19][23]. - **Supply and Demand**: From July 17 to July 18, the domestic urea daily output decreased by 0.25%, and the factory inventory decreased by 7.46% from July 11 to July 18 [24]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the futures prices of L2601 and PP2601 increased, and spot prices of PP and LLDPE also increased. Spreads and basis changed significantly [29]. - **Operating Rates and Inventory**: The operating rates of PE and PP devices increased slightly, and the inventory of PE and PP enterprises and traders increased [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 22, compared with July 21, the prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and naphtha decreased, and the prices of pure benzene and styrene and their spreads changed [31]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The port inventories of pure benzene and styrene increased, and the operating rates of the pure benzene and styrene industries and their downstream industries also had different degrees of change [31].

聚酯产业风险管理日报：煤价拉升推动成本上行 2025/07/22 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 周嘉伟（期货从业证号：F03133676） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚酯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇 | 4000-4600 | 16.16% | 29.4% | | PX | 6400-7300 | 22.35% | 70.5% | | PTA | 4400-5300 | 19.77% | 51.8% | | 瓶片 | 5700-6400 | 16.46% | 50.7% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚酯套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高， 担心乙二醇价格下 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - Valuation shows marginal profit gradually recovering, with synchronized contraction in PP and PE supply - demand, inventory accumulation, and a weak demand trend. PP maintenance has peaked, while PE maintenance first rises then falls. There are few import offers, and some Middle - East devices are shut down due to power issues. There will be a seasonal recovery in demand at the end of July. There is a risk of capacity withdrawal for devices over 20 years old. Strategy: unilateral short - term opportunity for PP with a bearish bias, and range - bound buying for PE [2] Methanol Industry - Inland prices fluctuate slightly. Supply has high maintenance losses in July but with expected复产. Demand is restricted by the traditional off - season of downstream industries, and new capacity launch affects the market. At the port, the basis strengthens. Overseas Iranian device production is back, with expected imports of 125 million tons in July and a slight decline in August. After MTO profit repair, maintenance is uncertain. There will be inventory accumulation from July to August, and prices are weak [5] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene improves in July. Although there are production news releases, the impact on loss volume is limited. Downstream price transmission is poor except for styrene. With high import expectations and high port inventory, its own driving force is limited. However, it may be boosted in the short - term, but the rebound space is limited. For styrene, the industry profit is maintained, and the operating rate is high. The supply - demand margin is repaired, but the supply - demand outlook is weak, and port inventory increases. It is boosted in the short - term but has limited upside [7] Polyester Industry Chain - In July, the PX supply - demand is good overall. Although some factory loads fluctuate, the overall supply impact is limited. Downstream PTA has increased maintenance expectations after significant processing fee compression, and terminal demand feedback is negative. PX demand support is weak. Considering new PTA capacity, the PX supply - demand outlook is tight, and PXN has some support. It may be boosted in the short - term but is restricted by demand and oil price expectations. For PTA, the load is around 80%, and with new device expectations and weak terminal demand, the supply - demand outlook is weak. It may be supported in the short - term by market sentiment. For other products like MEG, short - fiber, and bottle - chip, their supply - demand and price trends are analyzed respectively [11] Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly. The upper pressure comes from US tariff threats and EU sanctions on Russia, while the lower support is from the diesel fundamentals. Diesel cracking profit in Europe reaches a high level since 2024, indicating a tight medium - heavy crude oil structure. Refinery high - operating rates lead to counter - seasonal diesel inventory drawdown. Oil prices show a wide - range oscillation pattern, and the short - term direction depends on sanctions' impact on Russian supply and tariff risks [32] Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the futures price is boosted by policies, and there is an expectation of industry capacity reduction. The spot trading is average, and the price in Guangdong drops. Low - grade caustic soda has low inventory due to alumina demand, but non - aluminum downstream resists high prices. The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and there is an upward price expectation in the peak season. For PVC, the futures price is also boosted by policies, but the spot market has little change. The supply - demand is in an off - season with increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the inventory slightly accumulates. Short - term trading is mainly driven by macro - sentiment [36][37] Urea Industry - The core driver of the urea futures is macro - policy. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's policies are interpreted as beneficial for the urea industry, which may reduce large - particle supply. Although export data shows weakness, policy news boosts market sentiment. The futures price rise stimulates spot trading, and the basis has a repair expectation. In the short - term, the capacity reduction probability is low, but in the long - term, there may be a transformation in urea production capacity structure. The market should focus on export quota execution and trading expectations [41][42] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of L and PP increased on July 21 compared to July 18, with varying increase rates. The basis and price differences between different contracts also changed [2] - **Supply and Demand**: PE and PP device operating rates decreased slightly, and downstream operating rates also showed a downward trend. Inventories of PE and PP increased [2] Methanol Industry - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of methanol changed slightly. The basis strengthened at the port, and regional price differences also had some changes [5] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply in July had high maintenance losses but with expected复产. Demand was restricted by the off - season. At the port, imports were expected to increase in July and decrease slightly in August, and there would be inventory accumulation from July to August [5] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices**: Prices of pure benzene, styrene, and related products increased on July 21 compared to July 18, and the cash - flow and price differences also changed [7] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene improved in July, but downstream price transmission was poor. For styrene, the industry profit was maintained, and the operating rate was high, but the supply - demand outlook was weak [7] Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: Prices of upstream raw materials such as oil, PX, and downstream polyester products changed slightly on July 21 compared to July 18. Processing fees and price differences also had corresponding changes [11] - **Supply and Demand**: PX supply - demand was good overall, but downstream PTA had increased maintenance expectations. For other products like MEG, short - fiber, and bottle - chip, their supply - demand situations were analyzed respectively [11] Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: Brent, WTI, and SC oil prices decreased slightly on July 22 compared to July 21. Price differences between different contracts and between different oil types also changed [32] - **Supply and Demand**: The upper pressure on oil prices came from macro - factors, while the lower support was from diesel fundamentals. Diesel inventory showed counter - seasonal drawdown [32] Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: Prices of caustic soda and PVC futures and spot products changed on July 21 compared to July 18, and the basis and price differences also had corresponding changes [36] - **Supply and Demand**: For caustic soda, the supply - demand contradiction was limited, and for PVC, it was in an off - season with increasing supply and decreasing demand [36][37] Urea Industry - **Prices**: Spot prices of urea in different regions increased slightly on July 21 compared to July 18. The basis and price differences also changed [40] - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production decreased slightly, and the plant - level inventory decreased, while the port inventory increased [41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the product varieties in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices fluctuated and declined. Iran will hold nuclear negotiations with the UK, France, and Germany on Friday. The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, including lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil. In July, the operating rates of domestic refineries increased, but the overall demand for oil prices has limited driving force, and it is expected to continue to oscillate and consolidate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contracts rose. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened further, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market continued to be under pressure. The expected arrival volume from the European market in July will increase by 30 - 400,000 tons. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market faces supply pressure from stable Middle - Eastern shipments. The LU - FU spread has narrowed, and it is advisable to continue holding the spread short position [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract rose. In August, northern demand will be further released, and some refineries' production enthusiasm has increased. However, refineries without crude oil quotas have no production plans, and some refineries in Shandong have maintenance plans. The short - term unilateral driving force of the asphalt market is not obvious, and it mainly fluctuates narrowly following the cost - end crude oil. Short - term long positions can be considered after the oil price stabilizes [3]. - **Polyester**: On Monday, the main polyester contracts rose. The sales of polyester yarn in the Yangtze River Delta were average. Some synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plants restarted. The inventory in the main ports in East China decreased. The macro - environment has strengthened the expectation of industry structural adjustment, supply optimization, and elimination of backward production capacity. The EG device overseas has poor recovery, and the inventory accumulation expectation is weakened. The TA supply has little change, and it follows the cost to oscillate strongly in the short term [3][4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main rubber contracts rose. The inventory in Qingdao decreased. The continuous rainfall in the main rubber - producing areas has disrupted tapping operations. The downstream tire inventory is high and stable, and the demand has improved slightly. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the changes in the external macro - environment and extreme weather such as typhoons [4]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the methanol price showed a certain pattern. The load of Iranian devices has recovered to a high point, and the arrival volume has also increased. The downstream profit has recovered, and the start - up is expected to remain stable. The 9 - 1 spread and basis have returned to the normal range, and the price has returned to an oscillating trend [7]. - **Polyolefin**: On Monday, the polyolefin price was in a certain state. Polyolefin will gradually transition to a situation of strong supply and demand, and the fundamental contradiction is not prominent. If the cost end does not decline significantly, the downside space of polyolefin is also limited [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Monday, the PVC market price increased. The enterprise start - up has recovered, but the demand has not improved significantly. The basis and monthly spread have widened again, and the arbitrage space has gradually opened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to excessive market news [7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI August contract closed down $0.14 to $67.20 per barrel, a decline of 0.21%. Brent September contract closed down $0.07 to $69.21 per barrel, a decline of 0.10%. SC2509 closed at 509.1 yuan per barrel, down 6.2 yuan per barrel, a decline of 1.20% [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main fuel oil contract FU2509 rose 1.53% to 2924 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2510 rose 0.19% to 3602 yuan per ton [3]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract BU2509 rose 0.27% to 3657 yuan per ton [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4780 yuan per ton, up 0.76%. EG2509 closed at 4410 yuan per ton, up 0.78%. The basis increased by 14 yuan per ton to 65 yuan per ton, and the spot price was 4469 yuan per ton [3][4]. - **Rubber**: The main rubber contract RU2509 rose 85 yuan per ton to 14895 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract rose 75 yuan per ton to 12750 yuan per ton [4]. - **Methanol**: The Taicang spot price was 2398 yuan per ton, the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1990 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was 268 - 272 US dollars per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was 328 - 333 US dollars per ton [7]. - **Polyolefin**: The mainstream price of East China drawstring was 7050 - 7150 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP was - 400.04 yuan per ton, and the profit of coal - based PP production was 741.07 yuan per ton [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The price of the East China PVC market increased. The price of calcium carbide - based type 5 material was 5000 - 5080 yuan per ton, and the mainstream reference price of ethylene - based material was 4950 - 53000 yuan per ton [7][8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical varieties on July 21 and July 18, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc [9]. 3.3 Market News - The lack of progress in US trade negotiations and the EU's latest sanctions have not weakened Russia's energy exports, leading to lingering concerns about crude oil demand in the market. The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, including including the Indian Nayara Energy Company, which processes Russian crude oil, in the sanctions scope and further lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc [13][15][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc [26][28][32]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: It provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc [39][41][44]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: It shows the spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, etc [56][59]. - **4.5 Production Profit**: It presents the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc [62][63][65]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, and analysts such as Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo [68][69][70] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [73]

Core Insights - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo highlighted China's commitment to deepening cooperation in global supply chains amidst the restructuring of global industrial chains [1] - The "Global Supply Chain Promotion Report" presented at the expo emphasized that enhancing global supply chain resilience relies on the synergy of development environment, connectivity, and innovation capabilities [1] - The report introduced a new paradigm for supply chain management, suggesting that resilience is achieved through dynamic balance across the entire supply chain rather than strengthening individual segments [1] Group 1: Supply Chain Resilience - Supply chain vulnerabilities often stem from price fluctuations and supply disruptions, with the futures market emerging as a key tool for risk management [1] - Futures markets provide hedging and basis trading models that help companies build risk management systems to cope with price volatility, thereby enhancing supply chain resilience and promoting international cooperation [2] Group 2: Futures Market Impact - The introduction of lumber futures in November 2024 is expected to provide a fair and authoritative price benchmark for trade and processing enterprises, improving pricing transparency and standardization across the industry [2] - The plastic industry has seen significant changes, with domestic companies increasingly participating in international supply chains, and plastic futures becoming an important pricing benchmark for domestic spot trading [3] - The comprehensive layout of futures for crude oil, fuel oil, and other energy products provides a buffer against price fluctuations, while the launch of carbon lithium futures supports the development of the new energy industry [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - As the international influence of China's futures market grows, domestic companies can leverage price signals from the futures market to secure better conditions in international trade, enhancing competitiveness and promoting deeper integration of global supply chains [5]