证券研究报告 石化行业周报：持续关注反内卷进展 行业投资评级：强大于市|维持 中邮证券研究所石化团队 分析师:张津圣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524040005 1 1 发布时间：2025-12-17 投资要点 请参阅附注免责声明 2 ◼ 焦点：原油关注OPEC+未来政策。关注PTA反内卷进展。持续关注石化反内卷进展，石化行业中老旧装 置淘汰退出和更新改造的进展。 ◼ 回顾：本周申万一级行业指数表现中，石油石化指数表现较差，较上周下跌3.52%。而中信三级行业指 数表现来看，本周工程服务在石油石化中表现最佳，跌幅1.75%。 ◼ 原油：原油跌；美原油库存下跌，汽油库存上涨 ◼ 聚酯：涤纶长丝价格整体平稳、价差跌。江浙织机涤纶长丝库存天数分品种有涨有跌，织机开工率跌 ◼ 烯烃：样本PE现货价格稳中有跌，聚烯烃石化库存上涨 ◼ 标的： ➢ 上游：地缘若未来再次给出原油溢价，则利好上游标的。 ➢ 炼化：若需求好转，优供给、淘汰落后产能有所进展，则利好中游炼化。 ➢ 长丝：关注PTA反内卷进展，若顺利则利好涤纶长丝。 ◼ 风险提示：油价剧烈波动、地缘风险、欧美通胀反复、欧美经济波动、行业政策变化、项目投产进度变 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The decline in crude oil prices led to a drop in PTA prices, but the spot buying sentiment was good, and the PTA inventory continued to decrease, causing the spot basis to rise [2]. - The gasoline crack spread declined, but the PX price remained strong, supporting the PX - naphtha spread. Despite the lack of significant changes in fundamentals, PTA plants maintained high - load operation, and PX consumption remained stable [2]. - The cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to drive export growth, providing additional support to the polyester demand [2]. - The coal - based ethylene glycol plants' return and new plant commissioning increased market supply pressure, and with the continuous decline of coal prices, the ethylene glycol price was hard to get effective support [2]. - The increase in polyester export inquiries is expected to boost textile and clothing export demand, supporting the downstream weaving sector to maintain a high load [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Changes - INE crude oil price dropped from 436.5 yuan/barrel on December 15, 2025, to 430.5 yuan/barrel on December 16, 2025, a decrease of 6.00 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA - SC increased from 1455.9 yuan/ton to 1539.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 83.60 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.4590 to 1.4921, an increase of 0.0331 [2]. - CFR China PX price decreased from 833 to 827, a drop of 6 [2]. - PX - naphtha spread decreased from 284 to 281, a decrease of 3 [2]. - PTA主力期价 increased from 4628 yuan/ton to 4668 yuan/ton, an increase of 40.0 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA现货价格 decreased from 4620 to 4590, a decrease of 30.0 [2]. - PTA现货加工费 increased from 176.6 yuan/ton to 182.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.4 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA盘面加工费 increased from 184.6 yuan/ton to 260.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 75.4 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA仓单数量 decreased from 137993 to 136697, a decrease of 1296 [2]. - MEG主力期价 increased from 3651 yuan/ton to 3700 yuan/ton, an increase of 49.0 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG - naphtha decreased from (157.06) yuan/ton to (157.25) yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2 [2]. - MEG内盘 decreased from 3646 to 3634, a decrease of 12.0 [2]. - MEG主力基差 decreased from - 16 to - 27, a decrease of 11.0 [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX开工率 remained at 86.48% [2]. - PTA开工率 remained at 74.77% [2]. - MEG开工率 remained at 60.66% [2]. - 聚酯负荷 remained at 88.41% [2]. 3.3 Product Price and Cash - Flow Changes - POY150D/48F price decreased from 6335 to 6300, a decrease of 35.0 [2]. - POY现金流 decreased from (87) to (92), a decrease of 5.0 [2]. - FDY150D/96F price remained at 6555 [2]. - FDY现金流 increased from (367) to (337), an increase of 30.0 [2]. - DTY150D/48F price remained at 7690 [2]. - DTY现金流 increased from 68 to 98, an increase of 30.0 [2]. - 长丝产销 increased from 44% to 67%, an increase of 23% [2]. - 1.4D直纺涤短 price remained at 6325 [2]. - 涤短现金流 increased from 253 to 283, an increase of 30.0 [2]. - 短纤产销 decreased from 67% to 42%, a decrease of 25% [2]. - 半光切片 price decreased from 5495 to 5475, a decrease of 20.0 [2]. - 切片现金流 increased from (27) to (17), an increase of 10.0 [2]. - 切片产销 increased from 59% to 67%, an increase of 8% [2]. 3.4 Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is currently restarting and is expected to produce products soon, which was shut down for maintenance around November 17 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gasoline crack spreads have declined, but PX prices are strong, supporting the PX - naphtha spread. Despite no significant fundamental changes in supply disruptions or sudden demand increases, PTA plants maintain high - load operation, and PX consumption remains stable. The PX - mixed xylene spread has widened to $120, leading Korean manufacturers to cut STDP operations and plan to shut down relevant facilities in the second half of December. PX cost is high while PTA profit is under pressure, but integrated enterprises have improved economic benefits due to raw material self - sufficiency. New polyester plant startups keep polyester load at a high level, PTA consumption remains high, and market hoarding willingness increases, causing the basis to strengthen rapidly. Although domestic demand is seasonally weak, polyester factories have medium - to - low inventories, so the willingness to cut production is low. The cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to drive export growth [2]. 3. Summary by Related Indicators 3.1 Price Changes - PTA spot price remained unchanged at 4620 from 2025/12/15 to 2025/12/16 [2]. - MEG inner - market price decreased by 12 to 3634 [2]. - PTA closing price increased by 40 to 4668 [2]. - MEG closing price increased by 40 to 3700 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price remained unchanged at 6325 [2]. - Short - fiber basis remained unchanged at 130 [2]. - 1 - 2 spread increased by 4 to 16 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased by 6 to 246 [2]. - 1.4D imitation large - fiber price remained unchanged at 5300 [2]. - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - fiber remained unchanged at 1025 [2]. - East China water - grade bottle chips price decreased by 18 to 5653 [2]. - Hot - filling polyester bottle chips price decreased by 18 to 5653 [2]. - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chips price decreased by 18 to 5753 [2]. - Outer - market water - grade bottle chips price remained unchanged at 750 [2]. - Bottle - chip spot processing fee decreased by 14 to 486 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10270 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee remained unchanged at 3945 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16290 [2]. - Cotton 328 price increased by 25 to 14715 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased by 9 to 1534 [2]. - Primary three - dimensional hollow (silicone - containing) price decreased by 30 to 7000 [2]. - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased by 26 to 633 [2]. - Primary low - melting - point staple fiber price increased by 1 to 7606 [2]. 3.2 Load and Production - Sales Rates - Direct - spinning staple fiber load (weekly) increased by 0.95% to 89.32% [3]. - Polyester staple fiber production - sales rate increased by 23.00% to 79.00% [3]. - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00% [3]. - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huazhong Securities highlights the peak of domestic silicon production capacity, the exit of overseas manufacturers, and the potential recovery of the polyester chain's prosperity due to concentrated production capacity in the polyester filament sector [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Trends - Domestic silicon production capacity has reached its peak, while leading companies are driving industry recovery as overseas manufacturers continue to exit [1][3]. - The PTA production capacity expansion is nearing its end, leading to a concentration in polyester filament production capacity, which is expected to improve the prosperity of the polyester chain [1][3]. - The price of caprolactam has dropped to a low point, prompting the industry to initiate self-driven anti-involution measures [3]. - The raw material price index has rebounded after hitting a bottom, with frequent safety incidents causing significant risks to the global supply chain of key pesticides [3]. - The price of spandex has remained below the cost line, leading to widespread industry losses, but a slowdown in new capacity releases may optimize the supply structure and drive price recovery [3]. - The vitamin market is expected to see significant price increases in 2024 due to a tightening global supply [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes two main investment themes: anti-involution and domestic substitution, particularly in the context of global macroeconomic uncertainties and a slowdown in chemical capital expenditures [2][4]. - The biobased materials sector is receiving strong support from national policies, with companies accelerating technological breakthroughs and industrialization [4][6]. - The lubricating oil additive sector is witnessing rapid technological advancements among domestic companies, with several high-end products achieving international certification [4][6]. - The electronic ceramics market is seeing strong demand driven by AI and automotive sectors, with domestic manufacturers making breakthroughs in MLCC production [4][6]. - The exit of 3M from the fluorinated liquids market is reshaping the competitive landscape, with domestic manufacturers expected to increase their market share [4][6]. - The explosive growth of AI servers is driving demand for electronic-grade polyphenylene ether, with domestic manufacturers achieving technological breakthroughs and entering key supply chains [4][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the products in the report are rated as "Oscillating" [1][2][4][5][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, the price center of oil prices declined. WTI January contract closed down $1.55 to $55.27 per barrel, a decrease of 2.73%. Brent February contract closed down $1.64 to $58.92 per barrel, a decrease of 2.71%. SC2601 closed at 421.8 yuan per barrel, down 9.1 yuan per barrel, a decrease of 2.11%. With the intensification of market macro - risks, oil prices will continue to seek a bottom [1]. - The high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are under pressure due to sufficient supply. Although the arbitrage shipments from the Western market to Singapore in December are expected to decrease, the Asian fuel oil market will remain well - supplied in December and January. The short - term absolute prices of FU and LU may fluctuate repeatedly following oil prices [2]. - The asphalt market is relatively firm due to concerns about future raw material shortages. The downstream demand shows obvious north - south differentiation. In the short term, asphalt may remain stable under weak oil prices, but there is also a possibility of price decline if oil prices continue to fall [2]. - In the polyester market, with the decline of processing fees and seasonal weakening of terminal demand, prices will be further dragged down. Ethylene glycol is under pressure due to new production capacity and some loss - making devices [2][4]. - For rubber, the weather in overseas production areas has improved, raw material prices have rebounded, but demand support is limited. Rubber futures prices are expected to fluctuate widely [4]. - In the methanol market, Iranian device shutdowns will lead to a decline in arrivals from mid - December to January, but MTO device loads are also decreasing. Methanol prices are expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate [5]. - The polyolefin market is gradually shifting to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the short - term futures decline space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [5]. - The PVC market has high - level supply oscillations and weakening domestic demand. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices dropped. API data showed that last week, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 9.3 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. Market expectations were different from the actual data. Macro data and geopolitical factors were also mentioned. Oil prices are expected to continue to seek a bottom [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil declined. The market is under pressure due to sufficient supply, but high - sulfur fuel oil cracking profit decline may boost refinery demand in the future. Short - term prices may fluctuate with oil prices [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract declined. Concerns about raw material shortages made the market relatively firm. Downstream demand has north - south differences. Short - term prices may remain stable but could fall if oil prices drop further [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 declined, EG2605 rose. Processing fees are low, terminal demand is seasonally weak, and new ethylene glycol production capacity is increasing supply pressure [2][4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contracts showed different trends. Overseas weather improvement and raw material price rebound, but limited demand support, leading to expected wide - range oscillations [4]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, prices in different regions were reported. Supply is high - level oscillating, and demand is weakening. Iranian device shutdowns and MTO device load changes affect the market, with prices expected to oscillate at the bottom [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, prices and profit margins were given. Supply will remain high, demand will weaken, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, market prices in different regions increased. Supply is expected to increase slightly, demand will weaken, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Data such as spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and basis changes of various energy - chemical products on December 16th and 15th were presented, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [7] 3.3 Market News - The negotiation between the U.S. and Ukraine on security guarantees for Ukraine made progress, but there are still differences on territorial issues [9]. - API data showed that last week, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased, which was different from market expectations [9] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Included price charts of main contracts of various products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [11][12][13] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Included basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [29][34][35] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Included spread charts of different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [43][45][49] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Included spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [61][63][72] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Included production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [69] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **钟美燕**: The Assistant Director of the Institute and Director of Energy - Chemicals. With rich experience and many awards, she provides services for many companies and has media influence [74]. - **杜冰沁**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. She has won many awards and has in - depth industry research [75]. - **邸艺琳**: A natural rubber and polyester analyst. She has won awards and is good at data analysis [76]. - **彭海波**: An analyst for methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC. With a background in trade and financial knowledge [77].

能源化工期权 2025-12-17 能源化工期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, PX's new capacity pressure is expected to gradually emerge in the second half of the third quarter. PTA is in a production hiatus, and PX is expected to remain strong in the industrial chain. PTA may have a recovery expectation after its processing fee hits a recent low. The supply - demand pressure for the whole year is not significant. Pay attention to the opportunity for PTA processing fee to recover and the opportunity for the spread between TA - EG to widen on dips [1][163]. - In 2026, ethylene glycol (MEG) faces significant production pressure. Potential capacity and high overseas supply pose risks to the market. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of MEG is weaker than that of PTA. Pay attention to the spread changes [1][163]. - In 2026, due to the continued slowdown of global economic growth, domestic demand is weak and requires more policy support. Exports may continue to be mainly for rigid demand. Despite the pressure on terminal exports, polyester segment exports are still worth looking forward to. The polyester segment will continue to grow steadily. The supply - demand pressure in the staple fiber market is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to protect processing fees at high prices. The new supply pressure of bottle chips in 2026 is not large, but the capacity of existing devices is still high. Overall profit may have an improvement expectation, but the recovery space may not be optimistic [2][164]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **PTA**: In 2025, PTA reached a high of around 5300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. The market price declined due to seasonal inventory accumulation and tariff increases. The new device put into operation in the second half of the year put pressure on the market, and the main contract price fluctuated widely between 4400 - 5000 yuan/ton. Three new devices were put into operation, with a net capacity growth rate of 7.1%, and the cumulative output was expected to be 7390 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.8% [19][23]. - **MEG**: In 2025, the futures price of ethylene glycol showed a phased downward trend. Three new devices with a total of 170 tons were put into operation, with a net capacity growth rate of 3.7%. The cumulative output was expected to be 2080 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.1% [23]. - **Polyester and Terminal**: In 2025, the domestic sales growth of textile and apparel was slow. Exports were volatile, with a significant decline in exports to the US. The polyester segment had good production but poor profits due to raw materials and demand. The cumulative new capacity of polyester in the whole year was expected to be 446 tons, and the cumulative output from January to December was expected to be 7990 tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of about 6.8% [24]. 2. PTA: More Maintenance under Low Processing Fees, with Expectation of Supply - Demand Improvement - **Raw Material End**: From 2024 - 2025, there was no new PX production capacity. The average operating rate in 2025 was 82.8%, and the estimated output was 3.84 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In 2026, new production capacity is mainly planned to be put into operation in the second half of the year, and PX is expected to remain strong in the industrial chain [30][37]. - **Processing Fee**: In 2025, the average spot processing fee of PTA was only 262 yuan/ton, the lowest in recent years. In the second half of the year, the processing fee fell below 200 yuan/ton, leading to more maintenance [39][45]. - **Export**: In 2025, from January to October, China's PTA exports totaled 3.096 million tons. The cancellation of India's BIS certification is beneficial to exports, but the future new production capacity in India may affect exports [45]. - **2026 Outlook**: There is no new PTA production plan in 2026. The supply - demand situation is expected to improve. Pay attention to the opportunity for PTA processing fees to recover [47]. 3. MEG: Supply Pressure is Prominent - **Actual Supply Increase**: In 2025, the price of ethylene glycol dropped significantly twice, and the end - of - year futures price hit a five - year low. The actual output increased significantly. The proportion of naphtha - based MEG is still about half, and the proportion of coal - based ethylene glycol is about 36% [50]. - **Cash Flow and Operating Rate**: In 2025, the average cash flow of naphtha - based MEG was - 120 US dollars/ton. The overall domestic ethylene glycol operating rate was 70.6%. The coal - based ethylene glycol operating rate was relatively high, and the profit situation improved significantly [64][65]. - **Inventory and Import**: In 2025, the main port inventory first increased and then decreased, and then increased again at the end of the year. From January to October, the import volume was 6.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.2%. The overseas supply is generally abundant, and imports are expected to remain at a relatively high level [70]. - **Future New Production**: From 2026, the planned production capacity of ethylene glycol will increase again. The future supply - demand pattern is weaker than that of PTA. Pay attention to the spread between PTA - MEG [72][73]. 4. Demand: Polyester Shows Resilience, Pay Attention to Policy Changes in the Terminal - **Polyester Growth**: In 2025, it is expected that a total of 4.46 million tons of new polyester production capacity will be put into operation. The average operating load for the whole year reached 90%. The expected output for the whole year was about 79.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. In 2026, the planned new polyester production capacity is 5 - 6 million tons, and the output is still expected to reach about 85 million tons [86][100]. - **Staple Fiber**: In 2025, the effective production capacity of direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased by about 4%, and the output increased by 10.1%. The inventory decreased to a low level, and the average operating rate was 91%. In 2026, the supply - demand pressure in the staple fiber market is expected to increase. Pay attention to the opportunity to protect processing fees at high prices [106][122]. - **Bottle Chips**: In 2025, the new production scale of bottle chips narrowed, and the average spot processing fee dropped to a record low of 386 yuan/ton. The inventory pressure was transferred in the third quarter, and the inventory accumulation slowed down in the fourth quarter. In 2026, the new supply pressure is not large, and the profit may improve, but the recovery space may not be optimistic [125][134]. - **Terminal Market**: In 2025, the domestic demand for textile and apparel improved moderately, and exports were affected by international trade. In 2026, domestic demand is weak and requires policy support, and exports may be mainly for rigid demand. Polyester segment exports are still worth looking forward to [141][162]. 5. 2026 Market Outlook and Strategies - **PTA**: In 2026, PX's new capacity pressure is expected to gradually emerge in the second half of the third quarter. PTA may see its processing fee recover, and the supply - demand pressure for the whole year is not significant. Pay attention to the opportunity for PTA processing fee to recover and the opportunity for the spread between TA - EG to widen on dips [1][163]. - **MEG**: In 2026, the production pressure of ethylene glycol is large. The inventory may continue to rise at the beginning of the year, improve in the second quarter, and enter the inventory accumulation cycle again in the third and fourth quarters. The supply - demand pattern is weaker than that of PTA. Pay attention to the spread changes [1][163]. - **Polyester and Terminal**: In 2026, domestic demand is weak and requires policy support. Exports may be mainly for rigid demand. The polyester segment will continue to grow steadily. The supply - demand pressure in the staple fiber market is expected to increase, and the profit of bottle chips may improve, but the recovery space may not be optimistic [2][164].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][5][6]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure in the crude oil market has replaced geopolitical concerns, leading to a lack of support for oil prices and continuous price declines. Other energy and chemical products are also affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and seasonal demand fluctuations, and their prices are expected to fluctuate [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, the price of WTI January contract closed down $0.62 to $56.82 per barrel, a decline of 1.08%. The Brent February contract closed down $0.56 to $60.56 per barrel, a decline of 0.92%. SC2601 closed at 430.2 yuan per barrel, down 6.9 yuan per barrel, a decline of 1.58%. In November, the output and processing volume of industrial crude oil above designated size increased year - on - year. Kazakhstan increased oil supply to Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, and the delivery of new mooring points at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's Black Sea terminal was advanced. The supply - side pressure led to a continuous decline in oil prices [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 2.11% to 2417 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2602 rose 1.08% to 3005 yuan per ton. The high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are under pressure due to sufficient supply. Although the arbitrage arrivals from the Western market in Singapore are expected to decrease in December, the inventory in November increased significantly, and the supply from the Middle East in recent weeks has been substantial. The demand for marine bunkering is relatively stable, and the decline in high - sulfur fuel oil cracking profits may boost the demand of Asian refineries for high - sulfur fuel oil raw materials in the future [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.54% to 2963 yuan per ton. Tensions between the US and Venezuela have led to concerns about future raw material shortages, making the market relatively firm. Currently, refinery raw materials are relatively sufficient, and the downstream demand for asphalt in China shows significant north - south differentiation. It is expected that asphalt may remain stable in the short term under the weak oil price, but there is also a possibility of price decline [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4696 yuan per ton on Monday, up 1.78%. EG2601 closed at 3651 yuan per ton, up 0.66%. The inventory of MEG in the East China main port area increased by 2.5 tons to about 84.4 tons on December 15. A 260,000 - ton PX device in Japan restarted as planned. The cost - side oil price decline and the seasonal weakening of terminal demand will drag down prices. Some ethylene glycol devices are in a loss state and have stopped for maintenance, but new devices are in the production - preparation stage, increasing supply pressure [4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main natural rubber contract RU2605 fell 30 yuan per ton to 15200 yuan per ton, and the NR contract rose 30 yuan per ton to 12360 yuan per ton. In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative number of tire imports in the US increased by 6.6% year - on - year. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased. The weather in overseas production areas has improved, and raw material prices have rebounded. It is expected that rubber futures prices will fluctuate widely [4][5]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2105 yuan per ton. The supply of domestic methanol is at a high - level volatility, and the supply from Iran is expected to decline. The demand from the olefin sector is expected to weaken. Although the inventory has decreased significantly in the short term, there may be a rebound later. It is expected that methanol prices will remain at the bottom and fluctuate [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was between 6170 - 6400 yuan per ton. The production of polyolefins will remain at a high level, while downstream orders and production starts will gradually weaken. It is expected that polyolefins will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the short - term decline space of futures is limited, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Monday, the market price of PVC in East, North, and South China increased. The supply of PVC has decreased in routine maintenance this week but increased in sudden production cuts. The production is expected to increase slightly next week. The domestic real estate construction will slow down, and the demand for pipes and profiles will also decline. It is expected that PVC prices will fluctuate at the bottom [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on December 15 and 12, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - US President Trump said that he had a "very good conversation" with European leaders about the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and it seems that a "peace agreement" is closer to being reached, which may increase Russia's oil supply in the future. The National Bureau of Statistics announced the production and processing volume data of industrial crude oil above designated size in November and from January to November [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and paraxylene [11][12][13][14][16][17][19][21][22][23][24][25][26]. - **Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [28][33][34][37][38][39]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [41][43][47][50][53][55]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [58][62][59][69]. - **Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of LLDPE and PP [66]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, crude oil and other product analyst Du Bingqin, natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and methanol and other product analyst Peng Haibo, with their work experience, achievements, and professional qualifications introduced [71][72][73][74].

欧洲 ARA 周度数据出炉，汽油库存环比去库 0.23 百万桶至 9.23 百万桶，环比去库 2.39%；柴 油库存环比累库 0.34 百万桶至 14.97 百万桶，环比累库 2.29%；燃料油库存环比累库 0.69 百 万桶至 7.19 百万桶，环比累库 10.54%；石脑油环比去库 0.32 百万桶至 5.03 百万桶，环比 去库 5.89%；航空煤油环比累库 0.74 百万桶至 8.79 百万桶，环比累库 9.20%；总体成品油环 比累库 1.22 百万桶至 45.22 百万桶，环比累库 2.78%。 能源化工日报 2025-12-16 2025/12/16 原油 【行情资讯】 能源化工组 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收跌 0.40 元/桶，跌幅 0.09%，报 436.50 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收涨 36.00 元/吨，涨幅 1.50%，报 2441.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 32.00 元/吨，涨幅 1.08%，报 3005.00 元/吨。 【策略 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry The provided content does not mention the investment rating for the polyester industry. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the polyester industry chain was affected by factors such as macro - sentiment fluctuations, tariff conflicts, cost oscillations, device changes, and weak demand, leading to intensified price fluctuations and a further downward shift in the price center, hitting a historical low since 2007 [2][21]. - In 2026, the cost is expected to maintain relatively weak wide - range fluctuations. The oversupply of crude oil will put further downward pressure on oil prices, with Brent crude oil mainly fluctuating in the range of $50 - 75 per barrel [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - The price of the polyester industry chain fluctuated significantly in 2025, showing different trends in each quarter due to various factors such as cost, tariffs, and device maintenance. For example, in the first quarter, it showed a trend of rising first and then falling; in the second quarter, it was affected by tariffs and device maintenance, showing a deep V - shaped trend [21][22][23]. 3.2 Crude Oil: Supply Surplus and Price Pressure - In 2025, crude oil prices continued to decline under the pressure of continuous production increase, but were also affected by US tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts, resulting in sharp price fluctuations. Brent crude oil fell below $59 per barrel, and WTI crude oil fell below $56 per barrel, both hitting new lows since February 2021 [29]. - In 2026, crude oil demand is expected to grow slowly, and supply growth will slow down, but there will still be an oversupply situation, and oil prices will continue to be under pressure. It is expected that Brent crude oil will mainly fluctuate in the range of $50 - 75 per barrel [34]. 3.3 PX: Capacity Increase and Supply - Demand Expected to Be Tight First and Then Loose - **Market Review**: In 2025, PX prices were affected by multiple factors and fluctuated widely, with the price center shifting downwards. In the first half of the year, prices declined, and in the second half, they showed a relatively strong performance, and the PX - Nap spread strengthened [45]. - **Cost Analysis**: The cost of PX is expected to be relatively weak. Naphtha supply and demand are expected to be relatively loose, and the cracking spread is expected to decline to the range of $50 - 100 per ton. The supply - demand of MX is also expected to be loose, and the PX - MX spread will remain at a relatively strong level above $80 per ton [58][66]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: PX capacity expansion is coming to an end. In 2026, the supply - demand structure is expected to be tight first and then loose. The supply - demand will be relatively tight in the first half of the year, especially in the second quarter during the maintenance season, and the PX - Nap spread is expected to widen [79][114]. - **Price Forecast and Operation Suggestions**: PX prices are expected to be relatively strong, especially in the second quarter, but the absolute price will still be restricted by cost. The main price fluctuation range is 5400 - 7700 yuan per ton. It is recommended to buy on dips and seize short - selling opportunities. For arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on the basis, with a target of 300 - 600 yuan per ton, and go long on the PX05 - 09 spread, with a target of 100 - 200 yuan per ton [116]. 3.4 PTA: Stable Supply and Increasing Demand, Supply - Demand Structure to Improve - **Market Review**: In 2025, PTA prices fluctuated widely, with the price center shifting downwards. The market was affected by factors such as trade conflicts, cost fluctuations, and anti - involution [127]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In 2026, there is no new PTA capacity plan, but downstream polyester capacity will continue to expand, which will improve the PTA supply - demand structure. The processing fee is expected to rise to the range of 300 - 500 yuan per ton, and the operating rate is expected to increase to the range of 80% - 90% [137][144]. - **Price Forecast and Operation Suggestions**: PTA prices will still follow cost fluctuations. The main price fluctuation range is 3800 - 5600 yuan per ton. It is recommended to buy high and sell low according to cost trends and seasonal laws. For arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on the basis and seize opportunities to go long on the PTA05 - 09 spread [186]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol: Capacity Continues to Increase, Price Still Under Pressure - **Market Review**: In 2025, ethylene glycol prices continued to decline, hitting a new low in nearly five years. In the first half of the year, it showed a good supply - demand structure, but in the second half, the price was under pressure due to factors such as increased supply and weak cost [195]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In 2026, ethylene glycol supply and demand will both increase, but the supply will be relatively loose. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3000 - 4500 yuan per ton. It is recommended to short on rallies and seize short - term long - buying opportunities [256]. - **Arbitrage Suggestions**: It is recommended to short the basis on rallies and seize opportunities to go long on the ethylene glycol 05 - 09 spread [248]. 3.6 Polyester Staple Fiber: Capacity Expansion, Supply - Demand Weakening - **Market Review**: In 2025, polyester staple fiber prices were affected by factors such as weak terminal demand and cost decline, with the absolute price declining, but the processing fee remained stable around the break - even point [266]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In 2026, the supply and demand of polyester staple fiber will both increase, but the supply increase will be greater than the demand increase, which will put pressure on the processing fee. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 5800 - 6800 yuan per ton [331]. - **Operation and Arbitrage Suggestions**: It is recommended to mainly short according to the cost, and try to go long from August to September according to the seasonal law. For arbitrage, pay attention to fundamental changes and seize opportunities to go long on the basis and the PF05 - 09 spread [331]. 3.7 Polyester Bottle Chips: Continued Capacity Expansion, Profit Still Under Pressure - **Market Review**: In 2025, polyester bottle chip prices were affected by factors such as capacity expansion and cost fluctuations, with the price center shifting downwards, and the processing fee was at a low level [338]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In 2026, the supply of polyester bottle chips is expected to increase, and the demand will increase steadily. The supply - demand will maintain a dynamic wide - balance, which will still strongly suppress the processing fee. The price is expected to be strong first and then weak, with the main fluctuation range of 5200 - 6400 yuan per ton [382]. - **Operation and Arbitrage Suggestions**: It is recommended to short on rallies and seize short - term long - buying opportunities according to seasonal laws, cost trends, and device maintenance dynamics. For arbitrage, it is recommended to short the basis on rallies and pay attention to opportunities to short the PR03/05 spread [382]. 3.8 Polyester Industry Chain - Related Stocks As of December 12, different stocks in the polyester industry chain showed different trends. For example, the stock price of PetroChina increased by 8.67%, while the stock price of Sinopec decreased by 11.89% [383].