聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年9月10日 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 上游价格 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 9月9日 | 9月8日 | 9月8日 | 品种 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | 品种 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 9月9日 | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.37 | 布伦特原油(11月) | 66.02 | 0.6% | POY150/48价格 | 6805 | 6855 | 66.39 | -20 | -0.3% | 美元/桶 | 0.6% | 7090 | 0.0% | WTI原油 (10月) | 62.63 | 0.37 | FDY150/96价格 | 7090 | 0 | 62.26 | | | CFR日本石脑油 | 597 | ਦੇਰੇਖ | m | ...

Core Viewpoint - The polyester chain has not experienced the expected recovery during the traditional peak season, with prices of key products like PTA and MEG continuing to decline despite a temporary rebound in crude oil prices [1][2] Supply and Demand Analysis - Weak expectations on both supply and demand are key factors suppressing the market, with all segments of the polyester chain facing increased supply pressure due to new production capacity coming online [2] - The overall capacity utilization rate for the glycol market is at 75%, which is high compared to the same period in the last three years, indicating limited short-term supply increases [2][4] - Current inventory levels for PTA and MEG are not high, suggesting potential for price recovery if demand exceeds expectations during the peak season [5] Market Sentiment - The market's demand expectations are neutral, with no strong recovery observed during the peak season, and high inventory levels from previous demand surges are further delaying recovery [4][5] - The cash flow across various segments of the polyester chain remains under pressure, and good export performance is insufficient to support overall demand recovery [4] Future Outlook - The polyester chain is expected to face significant supply pressure in the fourth quarter, with short-term futures prices likely to experience downward pressure [6][7] - In the medium to long term, the polyester chain may see a valuation recovery in the first quarter of next year as new facilities come online and oil prices stabilize, contingent on inventory changes in glycol [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, Plastic, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Methanol, Urea, PVC, Caustic Soda, Soda Ash, Glass are all rated ★★★, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a complex situation with different product trends. Some products are affected by supply - demand imbalances, cost factors, and seasonal demand changes. Attention should be paid to the balance of different product chains, oil price fluctuations, new capacity, and the rhythm of seasonal demand recovery [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures had a narrow - range intraday consolidation. Downstream cost pressure led to reduced demand, and production enterprises were more willing to offer discounts [2] - Polyolefin futures continued to consolidate in a low - level range. PE supply increased while demand entered the traditional peak season. PP supply was relatively loose, and actual demand recovery was slow [2] Pure Benzene - Domestic benzene continued to rebound, with improved low - price demand after a decline. In the third quarter, the supply - demand situation may improve [3] - Styrene futures closed higher. Cost support was insufficient, and there was high inventory pressure at the terminal [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices stopped falling and fluctuated at a low level. Terminal demand was improving, and attention should be paid to the balance of PX - polyester and oil price fluctuations [5] - Ethylene glycol prices fluctuated at a low level. Supply and demand were intertwined, and there was resistance to further decline [5] - Short - fiber supply and demand were stable, and prices mainly fluctuated with costs. Positive hedging could be considered if demand improved [5] - Bottle - chip profits were passively repaired, but over - capacity was a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures rose. Supply increased significantly, and inventory continued to accumulate, but the market was expected to strengthen [6] - Urea market oscillated at a low level. Domestic production decreased, but was still high year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the actual impact of Indian tenders [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC oscillated strongly. Cost support was not obvious, and there was a game between low valuation and weak reality [7] - Caustic soda oscillated strongly. There were regional differences, and the price was expected to oscillate widely [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash was strong. The supply pressure was high, and long - term over - supply was expected. Short - selling at high rebounds was recommended [8] - Glass was strong. Spot prices continued to decline, but the price was expected to rise if the macro - sentiment improved [8]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Polyester Sector Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Zhang Weiwei [3] Group 2: Macro and Crude Oil News - OPEC+ may decide to increase oil production in October, potentially starting to lift the second-layer production cut plan with a reduction of about 1.65 million barrels per day, 1.6% of global demand, more than a year ahead of schedule. The market expected a 2 - 3 - month pause in production increase. The OPEC+ meeting on September 7 is awaited [4]. - Trump hinted at imposing second and third - stage oil sanctions on Russia, and the US hopes Europe will stop buying Russian oil and join proposed sanctions against countries that continue to buy [4]. - Fed officials including Williams, Waller, and Kashkari indicated that it is appropriate to cut interest rates in response to rising risks in the job market and the current economic situation [4]. - The US added 54,000 ADP jobs in August, lower than the expected 65,000. The initial jobless claims last week increased to 237,000. The market has priced in a 98% chance of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed at the September 17 policy meeting [5]. - The US Labor Day marks the end of the summer travel season, leading to a seasonal decline in gasoline consumption. As of August 29, the US daily crude oil production was 13.423 million barrels, down 16,000 barrels from the previous week but up 123,000 barrels from the same period last year. The commercial crude oil inventory increased by 2.42 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 3.8 million barrels, and distillate inventory increased by 1.68 million barrels [6]. Group 3: Futures and Spot Prices | Type | 2025/9/4 | 2025/8/28 | Week Change | Week - on - Week | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI Crude Oil Continuous (USD/barrel) | 63.3 | 64.27 | - 1 | - 1.51% | | Naphtha (USD/ton) | 592.5 | 593.88 | - 1.38 | - 0.23% | | PX511 (CNY/ton) | 6680 | 6886 | - 206 | - 2.99% | | PX CFR: Taiwan Province (CNY/ton) | 6780.87 | 6951.22 | - 170.35 | - 2.45% | | TA601 (CNY/ton) | 4656 | 4792 | - 136 | - 2.84% | | PTA Spot Benchmark Price (CNY/ton) | 4615 | 4775 | - 160 | - 3.35% | | EG601 (CNY/ton) | 4357 | 4465 | - 108 | - 2.42% | | Ethylene Glycol East China Mainstream Price (CNY/ton) | 4456 | 4525 | - 69 | - 1.52% | | PF511 (CNY/ton) | 6330 | 6526 | - 196 | - 3.00% | | Polyester Staple Fiber East China Mainstream Price (CNY/ton) | 6450 | 6555 | - 105 | - 1.60% | | PR511 (CNY/ton) | 5820 | 5982 | - 162 | - 2.71% | | Polyester Bottle Chip East China Mainstream Price (CNY/ton) | 5790 | 5860 | - 70 | - 1.19% | [8] Group 4: PX Supply - Domestic PX supply was stable this week. As of September 4, the domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 84.63% (unchanged), and the weekly output was 709,800 tons (unchanged). Asian PX supply was also stable, with a weekly average capacity utilization rate of 74.46% (unchanged) [11]. - Next week, Dalian Fujia's 700,000 - ton and Tianjin Petrochemical's 300,000 - ton PX plants will be under maintenance, while Fuhai Chuang's 1.6 - million - ton plant is planned to restart, and the PX weekly output is expected to increase slightly [11]. Group 5: PTA Supply and Inventory - This week, the overall domestic PTA supply decreased due to the co - existence of maintenance and restart of two sets of Taihua's plants and the supply reduction caused by the maintenance of Dushan Energy last week. As of September 4, the domestic PTA weekly capacity utilization rate was 69.48% (- 1.38 percentage points), and the weekly output was 1.2893 million tons (- 23,600 tons). Next week, Hengli Huizhou has a restart plan, and the domestic supply is expected to increase slightly [14]. - This week, PTA social inventory continued to decline. As of September 4, the available days of PTA in - plant inventory were 3.9 days (+ 0.09 days), the PTA inventory of polyester plants was 7.05 days (- 0.50 days), and the PTA social inventory was about 3.3795 million tons (- 152,600 tons) [14]. Group 6: Ethylene Glycol Supply and Inventory - This week, the domestic ethylene glycol supply increased as multiple plants increased their loads. As of September 4, the domestic ethylene glycol weekly average capacity utilization rate was 67.45% (+ 2.34 percentage points), including 66.84% for integrated plants (+ 1.64 percentage points) and 68.34% for coal - based ethylene glycol plants (+ 3.46 percentage points), and the weekly output was 410,000 tons (+ 14,200 tons). Xinjiang Tianye and Inner Mongolia Jianyuan plants are planned to be under maintenance, and the domestic supply is expected to decrease slightly next week [18]. - This week, the port inventory of ethylene glycol decreased. As of September 4, the total inventory in East China ports was 376,300 tons, down 36,900 tons from last Thursday and 13,300 tons from this Monday. Although the arriving goods will increase next week, the inland supply will decrease, and the port may continue to reduce inventory [18]. Group 7: Polyester Sector - The weekly average polyester operating rate was 87.33%, up 0.67 percentage points from the previous week [19]. - This week, the inventory of polyester filament and staple fiber increased [22]. Group 8: Terminal Market - As of September 4, the operating rate of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 62.42% (+ 0.44), the order days of Chinese weaving sample enterprises were 13.89 days (+ 1.17 days), and the inventory days of grey cloth were 26.59 days (- 0.32 days) [28]. Group 9: Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: The supply is recovering, but the overall pressure is not high. The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season has started, but the actual improvement in demand is limited. The fundamental driving force is insufficient, and the polyester sector will passively follow the cost fluctuations in the short term. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting results and the impact of anti - involution sentiment [30]. - Medium - and long - term: The demand is expected to improve, and the operating center of the polyester sector tends to move up [31]. - Next week's focus and risk warnings include geopolitical situation changes, the OPEC+ meeting, macro - market sentiment, and the operation of upstream and downstream plants [31]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices declined, weakening cost support for PTA. PTA supply was sufficient, downstream polyester filament sales were 42.67%, and the market lacked confidence, leading to a decline in PTA prices and a weakening basis [2]. - The price of ethylene glycol (MEG) rebounded slightly, and the spot market price followed suit with a slight increase, while the basis negotiation continued to strengthen [2]. - OPEC+ will consider increasing oil production again at Sunday's meeting. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded, and the weakness of benzene prices has inhibited the further increase of PX production to some extent. The spread between PX and MX has rebounded, the downstream load of polyester has remained at around 88%, domestic PTA plants have gradually returned, and domestic PTA production has increased [2]. - South Korea's naphtha cracking unit plans to cut production, and olefin varieties have risen significantly. The price of ethylene glycol has rebounded, and the maintenance of overseas ethylene glycol plants, especially Saudi Arabian plants, has been continuously postponed, which may have a significant impact on the market outlook. This has also continuously boosted the price of ethylene glycol. The later arrival volume of ethylene glycol has decreased. The polyester inventory is in good condition, and the downstream weaving load has increased [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - **PTA**: On September 4, 2025, the INE crude oil price was 481.0 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 12.20 yuan from the previous day; the PTA - SC was 1160.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.66 yuan; the PTA/SC ratio was 1.3320, an increase of 0.0117; the PTA主力期价 was 4656 yuan/ton, a decrease of 76.0 yuan; the PTA spot price remained unchanged at 4705 yuan; the spot processing fee was 88.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71.4 yuan; the disk processing fee was 134.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 72.4 yuan; the main basis was (57), a decrease of 6.0; the PTA warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 29742 [2]. - **MEG**: On September 4, 2025, the MEG主力期价 was 4357 yuan/ton, an increase of 26.0 yuan; the MEG - naphtha was (112.24) yuan/ton, an increase of 5.8 yuan; the MEG domestic price remained unchanged at 4435 yuan; the main basis was 88, an increase of 4.0 [2]. Industrial Chain Start - up Situation - On September 4, 2025, the PX start - up rate was 82.59%, unchanged; the PTA start - up rate was 74.26%, unchanged; the MEG start - up rate was 60.68%, a decrease of 1.09%; the polyester load was 88.16%, an increase of 0.17% [2]. Polyester Product Situation - **Polyester Filament**: The prices of POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, and DTY150D/48F remained unchanged at 6860 yuan, 7130 yuan, and 8035 yuan respectively on September 4, 2025. The cash flows of POY, FDY, and DTY also remained unchanged at 101 yuan, (129) yuan, and 76 yuan respectively. The sales rate of polyester filament was 43%, a decrease of 7% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber remained unchanged at 6575 yuan on September 4, 2025. The cash flow of polyester staple fiber remained unchanged at 166 yuan, and the sales rate was 39%, a decrease of 2% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The price of semi - glossy chips remained unchanged at 5795 yuan on September 4, 2025. The cash flow of chips remained unchanged at (64) yuan, and the sales rate was 49%, an increase of 3% [2]. Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in South China started maintenance on September 4, 2025, and another 2.5 - million - ton device is expected to stop for maintenance around August 23, with an expected maintenance time of more than one month [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **Polyester Industry**: Short - term PX, PTA, short - fiber, and bottle - chip prices follow oil prices, with limited upward drivers. Ethylene glycol has a "strong present, weak future" pattern. Strategies vary by product, such as PX11 and TA being under observation, and attention to support levels [2]. - **Fertilizer Industry**: Urea futures face pressure due to weak demand and high supply. It is advisable to monitor the recovery of industrial demand in North China after the parade [5]. - **Methanol Industry**: Methanol supply is abundant in September, while traditional downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the restart of port MTO devices and inventory digestion [12]. - **Crude Oil Industry**: OPEC + supply news increases concerns about a supply surplus in the fourth quarter. The oil price is likely to be weak, and a bearish strategy is recommended [15]. - **Polyolefin Industry**: In September, the polyolefin market shows a pattern of "decreased supply and increased demand", with controllable inventory pressure. It is suggested to hold the expanding position of the LP01 contract [22]. - **Chlor - alkali Industry**: Caustic soda prices may remain firm in the short - term, and PVC is expected to continue weak and volatile [30]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry**: Short - term pure benzene and styrene prices are under pressure, but the downward space is limited if oil prices do not drop sharply. For EB10, short - term support around 6900 can be monitored [34]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Prices and Cash Flows**: On September 3, Brent crude oil (November) was at $67.60/barrel, down 2.2%. Most polyester product prices were stable or slightly decreased, and cash flows showed different changes [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: PX supply is expected to increase, while demand has limited upward potential. PTA supply - demand prospects have improved, but the implementation of device maintenance is not as expected. Other products also have their own supply - demand characteristics [2]. Fertilizer Industry - **Prices and Supply - Demand**: On September 3 - 5, most fertilizer product prices were stable, and urea production and inventory data showed small fluctuations. Urea demand is weak, and supply is relatively sufficient [5]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Inventory**: On September 3, MA2601 closed at 2382 yuan/ton, up 0.42%. Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increased [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: In September, methanol supply is high, and traditional downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the restart of port MTO devices [12]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 4, Brent was at $67.39/barrel, down 0.31%. Most oil - related prices and spreads changed slightly, and the crack spread of refined oil increased slightly [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: OPEC + supply news intensifies concerns about a supply surplus in the fourth quarter, and the oil price is likely to be weak [15]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Inventory**: On September 3, L2601 closed at 7247 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. PE and PP enterprise and social inventories increased [22]. - **Supply and Demand**: In September, PE supply pressure is limited, and PP shows a pattern of "both supply and demand increasing". Downstream demand has increased slightly [22]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices and Inventory**: On September 3, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda was stable, and the price of PVC was also stable. Chlor - alkali inventories showed different changes [30]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda supply will gradually recover, and demand may increase. PVC supply is expected to increase, while demand remains weak [30]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices and Inventory**: On September 3, CFR China pure benzene was at $734/ton, up 0.8%. Pure benzene and styrene port inventories increased [34]. - **Supply and Demand**: Pure benzene supply is expected to remain high, and demand support is weakening. Styrene supply is high in the short - term, but there are expectations of improvement in supply - demand later [34].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The PTA market shows a weak and volatile trend with sufficient spot supply, and the downstream polyester filament production and sales are about 51%. The PTA spot average price decreases, and the spot basis weakens. The MEG market in Zhangjiagang has a downward trend, and the futures continue the weak trend. The polyester downstream load remains at around 88%, and the domestic PTA production rebounds. The profit of polyester filament is significantly repaired, but some downstream device maintenance expectations are strong. The price of ethylene glycol recovers, and the later arrival volume decreases [2] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Market Data - INE crude oil price increases from 490.4 yuan/barrel to 493.2 yuan/barrel, with a change of 2.80 yuan/barrel. The PTA - SC value decreases from 1192.2 yuan/ton to 1147.9 yuan/ton, with a change of -44.35 yuan/ton. The PTA/SC ratio decreases from 1.3345 to 1.3203, with a change of -0.0143. The CFR China PX price decreases from 846 to 843, with a change of -3. The PX - naphtha spread decreases from 250 to 243, with a change of -7 [2] - The PTA main contract futures price decreases from 4756 yuan/ton to 4732 yuan/ton, with a change of -24.0 yuan/ton. The PTA spot price decreases from 4725 yuan/ton to 4705 yuan/ton, with a change of -20.0 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreases from 179.6 yuan/ton to 159.5 yuan/ton, with a change of -20.1 yuan/ton. The disk processing fee decreases from 215.6 yuan/ton to 206.5 yuan/ton, with a change of -9.1 yuan/ton. The main contract basis changes from (49) to (51), with a change of -2.0 [2] - The MEG main contract futures price decreases from 4339 yuan/ton to 4331 yuan/ton, with a change of -8.0 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha value changes from (114.41) yuan/ton to (113.60) yuan/ton, with a change of 0.8 yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price decreases from 4468 yuan/ton to 4435 yuan/ton, with a change of -33.0 yuan/ton. The main contract basis increases from 84 to 88, with a change of 4.0 [2] Industry Chain Operating Conditions - The PX operating rate remains at 82.59%, with a change of 0.00%. The PTA operating rate remains at 74.26%, with a change of 0.00%. The MEG operating rate decreases from 62.03% to 61.77%, with a change of -0.26%. The polyester load remains at 87.99%, with a change of 0.00% [2] Polyester Product Data - The price of POY150D/48F remains at 6860, with a change of 0.0. The POY cash flow increases from 73 to 101, with a change of 28.0. The price of FDY150D/96F remains at 7130, with a change of 0.0. The FDY cash flow increases from (157) to (129), with a change of 28.0. The price of DTY150D/48F remains at 8035, with a change of 0.0. The DTY cash flow increases from 48 to 76, with a change of 28.0. The filament production and sales increase from 38% to 50%, with a change of 12% [2] - The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreases from 6590 to 6575, with a change of -15. The polyester staple fiber cash flow increases from 153 to 166, with a change of 13.0. The staple fiber production and sales decrease from 42% to 41%, with a change of -1% [2] - The price of semi - gloss chips decreases from 5815 to 5795, with a change of -20.0. The chip cash flow increases from (72) to (64), with a change of 8.0. The chip production and sales decrease from 61% to 46%, with a change of -15% [2] Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in South China starts parking for maintenance today, and another 2.5 - million - ton device is expected to stop around August 23, with an expected maintenance time of more than one month [2]

Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX supply is expected to increase due to the restart of maintenance devices and good short - process benefits. Demand has some support but limited upside. PX11 is under observation, with support around 6600 and attention on oil price trends [2]. - PTA supply - demand is near a tight balance in September. Although the device maintenance execution is not as expected, the low absolute price is supported, but the driving force is limited. TA is under observation, paying attention to the support around 4600 and oil price trends [2]. - Ethylene glycol has a "strong reality, weak expectation" supply - demand pattern. Short - term futures have limited downside, but the fourth - quarter supply - demand is weak. Attention is paid to the support of EG2601 around 4300 [2]. - Short - fiber supply - demand is expected to improve in September, but the destocking amplitude is limited. It follows raw material fluctuations, with the disk processing fee oscillating between 800 - 1100 [2]. - Bottle - chip supply and procurement may both decrease in September, with inventory expected to increase. PR follows the cost - end fluctuation, and the processing fee has limited upside [2]. Urea Industry - Urea futures prices fell due to weak demand and high - supply pressure. Domestic agricultural and industrial demand is weak, and export demand is also under pressure. The market supply is sufficient, and the futures price may be under pressure. Attention is paid to the recovery of industrial demand in North China after the parade [8]. Methanol Industry - Methanol supply is expected to increase with the return of inland maintenance devices and high - level imports in September. Traditional downstream demand is weak. The market is under pressure due to significant inventory accumulation, and attention is paid to the inventory digestion rhythm [10][11][12]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices fell due to concerns about increased OPEC+ supply in the fourth quarter. The disk may run weakly, with support levels for WTI at [62, 63], Brent at [65, 66], and SC at [470, 480]. Options can wait for opportunities to expand after increased volatility [19]. Polyolefin Industry - PE supply pressure is relatively limited in the short - term, and PP shows a "supply - demand double - increase" situation. Downstream industry开工率 has increased, but new orders have limited support. In September, the market shows a "supply - decrease, demand - increase" pattern, and it is recommended to hold the expanding position of the LP01 contract [23]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic soda market is supported by rigid demand, with low inventory in Shandong. The spot price may remain firm, and the disk callback space is limited. Attention is paid to downstream purchasing rhythm and device fluctuations [48]. - PVC supply - demand remains oversupplied. Supply is expected to increase in September, while demand remains weak. It is expected to continue weak and volatile, with cost - end support [48]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure benzene supply is expected to remain high, while demand support is weak. Short - term absolute price is under pressure, but the downward space is limited if oil prices do not fall deeply [53]. - Styrene supply is high in the short - term, with weak driving force. However, there is an expectation of supply - demand improvement later. EB10 can be lightly long at low positions, and mainly short on rebounds later [53]. Summary by Directory Polyester Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 3, WTI crude oil (October) was at 63.97 dollars/barrel, down 1.62 dollars or 2.5% from the previous day. Various polyester product prices and spreads changed, such as PTA, MEG, and different polyester fiber prices [2]. - **Inventory and Expected Arrival**: MEG port inventory was 44.9 million tons on September 1, down 10.2% from August 25, and the expected arrival was 4.4 million tons, up 122.7% [2]. - **Industry开工率**: Asian PX开工率 was 75.6% on August 29, down 0.7% from August 22; PTA开工率 was 70.4%, down 1.2% [2]. Urea Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 3, the 01 - contract futures price was 1714 yuan/ton, down 1.83% from the previous day. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [7][8]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily output was 18.80 million tons on September 5, down 0.93% from September 4. Factory inventory increased slightly, and order days decreased [8]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 3, MA2601 closed at 2382 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the previous day. There were also changes in various price spreads and regional price differences [10]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, methanol enterprise inventory was 34.1083%, up 2.31%; port inventory was 142.8 million tons, up 9.88% [11]. - **开工率**: Upstream domestic enterprise开工率 was 72.19% on Thursday, down 1.12% from the previous value; downstream MTO device开工率 was 78.56%, up 2.13% [12]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 4, Brent was at 67.39 dollars/barrel, down 0.31% from the previous day; WTI was at 63.75 dollars/barrel, down 0.34% [19]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB was at 200.90 cents/gallon on September 4, down 0.15% from the previous day. Refined oil cracking spreads had different changes [19]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 3, L2601 closed at 7247 yuan/ton, down 0.07% from the previous day. There were also changes in price spreads and basis [23]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE enterprise inventory on Wednesday was 45.1 million tons, up 5.57%; PP装置开工率 on Thursday was 80.2%, up 2.6% [23]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 3, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent - to - 100% price was 2718.8 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. PVC prices and price spreads also had changes [48]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda industry开工率 was 85.4% on August 29, down 0.8% from August 22; PVC total开工率 was 73.3%, down 2.3% [48]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 3, CFR China pure benzene was at 734 dollars/ton, up 0.8% from the previous day. Styrene - related prices and spreads also changed [53]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 1.10 million tons on September 1, up 8.0% from August 25; domestic pure benzene开工率 was 79.2% on August 29, up 0.2% from August 22 [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "volatile", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride [1][2][4][5][6] Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ may consider further increasing oil production in the Sunday meeting, which could put pressure on oil prices if the increase exceeds expectations. The market is also affected by factors such as Russian oil exports and US inventory data [1] - For fuel oil, the reduction of arbitrage cargo inflows from the West and the expected decrease in high - sulfur shipments from Iran and Russia may provide some support, but overall demand lacks significant highlights [2] - In the asphalt market, the increase in demand in the northern regions in September may drive price increases, but the rise may be limited by increased supply in some areas. The supply - demand contradiction is expected to ease [2] - Polyester products are affected by factors such as high PX supply, increased TA maintenance, and under - expected seasonal improvement in terminal demand, with prices expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations [4] - The rubber market is supported by factors such as inventory reduction and favorable heavy - truck sales data, but is also affected by产区 weather and demand conditions, with prices expected to be volatile [4] - Methanol prices are expected to enter a phased bottom area in September due to limited supply growth and expected demand recovery [5] - Polyolefins are expected to maintain narrow - range fluctuations in September as the supply and demand are both strong and the cost - side is stable [5] - PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak in September due to weak real - estate construction demand and expected export decline, but there is a risk of policy - driven speculation [6] Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices dropped significantly. WTI October contract closed at $63.97/barrel, down $1.62 or - 2.47%. Brent November contract closed at $67.60/barrel, down $1.54 or - 2.23%. SC2510 closed at 483.6 yuan/barrel, down 8.2 yuan or - 1.67%. OPEC+ may consider further increasing production. Russian oil exports in August slightly increased, and US inventory data showed a rise in crude and distillate stocks and a decline in gasoline stocks. The market is waiting for the OPEC+ production decision, and an unexpected increase in production could pressure oil prices [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, FU2510 closed down 0.04% at 2840 yuan/ton, and LU2511 closed down 0.85% at 3512 yuan/ton. The reduction of Western arbitrage cargo inflows and the expected decrease in high - sulfur shipments from Iran and Russia may support the market, but overall demand lacks highlights. US sanctions on Iranian trade may affect high - sulfur fuel oil delivery [2] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, BU2510 closed down 0.36% at 3550 yuan/ton. This week, the social inventory rate was 32.97%, down 0.46% week - on - week; the refinery inventory was 26.24%, down 0.50% week - on - week; and the refinery operating rate was 33.53%, down 2.90% week - on - week. The increase in demand in the northern regions in September may drive price increases, but supply increases in some areas may limit the rise [2] - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4732 yuan/ton, down 0.5%; EG2601 closed at 4331 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. PX supply is high, TA maintenance is increasing, and terminal demand improvement is under - expected. The prices of polyester products are expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations [4] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, RU2601 rose 15 yuan/ton to 15885 yuan/ton, NR rose 5 yuan/ton to 12715 yuan/ton, and BR rose 65 yuan/ton to 11885 yuan/ton. As of August 31, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased. The market is affected by factors such as weather, demand, and inventory, with prices expected to be volatile [4] - **Methanol**: The prices of methanol and its downstream products are given. Due to profit recovery, MTO device may resume production, and demand is expected to recover in September. Supply growth is limited, and prices are expected to enter a phased bottom area [5] - **Polyolefins**: The prices and profit margins of polyolefins are provided. In September, supply and demand are both strong, and inventory is transferring from society to downstream. Prices are expected to maintain narrow - range fluctuations [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The prices in different regions are presented. The real - estate construction recovery is weak, and exports are expected to decline due to anti - dumping duties. Prices are expected to be volatile and weak in September [6] Daily Data Monitoring - The table provides data on the basis of various energy and chemical products, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7] Market News - OPEC+ may consider further increasing oil production in the Sunday meeting to regain market share. An additional increase would mean starting to lift the second - layer production cuts, about 1.65 million barrels per day, 1.6% of global demand, more than a year ahead of schedule [11] - Russian oil exports by sea slightly increased in August. However, exports to India decreased by 21% month - on - month to 1.3 million barrels per day. The US imposed a 25% punitive tariff on Indian products exported to the US in August [11] Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][15][17] - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis charts of main contracts for different products are shown, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [25][27][31] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The charts of spreads between different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. are provided [39][41][44] - **Inter - product Spreads**: The charts of spreads and ratios between different products are presented, including crude oil's internal - external spreads, B - W spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, BU/SC ratio, etc. [56][58][62] - **Production Profits**: The production profit charts of products such as ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE are shown [64][65][67] Team Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, the assistant director and energy and chemical director, Du Bingqin, an analyst for crude oil, etc., Di Yilin, a rubber/polyester analyst, and Peng Haibo, a methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst [70][71][72]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content in the provided document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on energy - chemical options, covering various sectors such as energy, polyolefins, polyesters, and alkalis. It analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and option factors of different underlying assets and provides corresponding option strategies and suggestions [3][9]. - It is recommended to construct option combination strategies mainly based on sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Option - Underlying Futures Market Overview - Multiple energy - chemical option underlying futures are presented, including details like the latest price, price change, change rate, trading volume, volume change, open interest, and open interest change. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2510) is 484, with a price drop of 8 and a decline rate of 1.67% [4]. 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume - Open Interest PCR - The volume - open interest PCR data of various option varieties are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option - underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil is 0.61 with a change of 0.08, and the open interest PCR is 0.77 with a change of 0.06 [5]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different option varieties are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 600 and the support level is 450 [6]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of various option varieties are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change, annual average, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 26.005, and the weighted implied volatility is 29.16 with a change of 1.62 [7]. 3.3 Strategy and Suggestions 3.3.1 Energy - Class Options - **Crude Oil**: The fundamentals are healthy with OPEC's supply restraint. The market shows a short - term upward resistance and decline. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **LPG**: The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The market is in a weak state. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.3.2 Alcohol - Class Options - **Methanol**: The import volume increases, and the downstream demand is weak. The market is weak. Option strategies include constructing a bear spread strategy of put options, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory is decreasing. The market shows a wide - range weak oscillation. Option strategies include constructing a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.3.3 Polyolefin - Class Options - **Polypropylene**: The inventory shows a mixed trend. The market is weak. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.3.4 Rubber Options - **Rubber**: The tire production capacity utilization rate shows different trends. The market is short - term weak. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy [12]. 3.3.5 Polyester - Class Options - **PTA**: The inventory is decreasing, and the downstream load is rising. The market shows a rebound resistance and decline. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy [12]. 3.3.6 Alkali - Class Options - **Caustic Soda**: The production capacity utilization rate decreases in most regions. The market shows an oscillatory trend. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The inventory is decreasing. The market shows an oscillatory trend. Option strategies include constructing a short - volatility combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.3.7 Urea Options - The port inventory increases, and the enterprise inventory is under pressure. The market shows a low - level oscillation. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14].