黑色建材日报 2026-01-30 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3157 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 34 元/吨（1.088%）。当日注册仓单 17283 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 178.54 万手，环比增加 40974 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比增加 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3260 元/吨, 环比增加 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主 力合约收盘价为 3308 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 28 元/吨（0.853%）。 当日注册仓单 187668 吨, 环比增加 8842 吨。主力合约持 ...

| | 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年1月30日 | | | 哥敏歌 | ZOOJOSSO | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 即值 | 涨跌 | 其左 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货 (华东) | 3260 | 3240 | 20 | 32 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3170 | 3160 | 10 | -58 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3290 | 3280 | 10 | 62 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3157 | 3126 | 31 | 103 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3203 | 3174 | 29 | 57 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3228 | 3199 | 29 | 32 | | | 热卷现货 (华东) | 3290 | 3270 | 20 | -60 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货 (华北) | 3180 | 3170 | 10 | -170 | | | 热卷现货(华南) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon iron, different regions have varying prices and price changes. For example, the latest price of 72 silicon iron in Ningxia is 5350, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 100. The price of the main contract is 5736, with a daily change of 104 and a weekly change of 126 [1]. - For silicon manganese, the closing price of the main contract on CZCE, the basis in different regions, and the price differences between different grades and regions are presented. For example, the closing price of the silicon manganese main contract on CZCE shows different trends from 2022 - 2026 [6]. Supply - The production volume and capacity utilization rate of silicon iron in 136 Chinese enterprises (monthly and weekly), and the production volume of silicon manganese in China (weekly) are provided. For example, the monthly production volume of silicon iron by 136 Chinese enterprises shows different trends from 2022 - 2026 [4][6]. - The production volume and procurement volume of silicon iron and silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group are also included. For example, the monthly procurement volume of FeSi75 - B silicon iron by Hebei Iron and Steel Group shows different trends from 2022 - 2026 [4]. Demand - The demand - related data of silicon iron and silicon manganese in China are presented, such as the estimated and actual production volume of crude steel in China, the production volume of stainless - steel crude steel in China, and the demand for silicon manganese in China (in ten thousand tons) [4][7]. Inventory - The inventory data of silicon iron and silicon manganese are provided, including the inventory of 60 sample enterprises of silicon iron in different regions (weekly), the total number of silicon iron and silicon manganese warehouse receipts on CZCE (daily), and the inventory average available days in different regions [5][7]. Cost and Profit - The cost and profit data of silicon iron and silicon manganese are provided, such as the production cost of silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia (yuan/ton), the profit of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions (yuan/ton), and the export profit of 75 - grade silicon iron (yuan) [5][7].

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 1 月 29 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5736 | 104 | 126 | 228839 | 106016 | 172651 | -33983 | | SM主力合约 | 5926 | 94 | 112 | 256191 | 116337 | 362400 | -12587 | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5400 | 50 | 30 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5670 | 0 | -10 | | ...

中原期货：上周合金供需变化不大，硅铁低开工低库存，锰硅供需环比回升，整体基本面表现较为健康，但黑色系整体缺乏预期驱动，双硅波幅 收窄偏弱运行，预计1月西北结算电价上调3分左右，带动成本抬升百元以上，短期合金成本有支撑，短期走势维持回调偏多思路。 国投安信期货：日内价格反弹上行。部分产区电力成本确有下降，不过兰炭价格小幅抬升，主产区依旧亏损为主。需求端铁水产量维持淡季水 平。出口需求维持3万吨以上，边际影响不大。金属镁产量环比抬升，次要需求边际抬升，需求整体仍有韧性。硅铁供应变动不大，库存小幅下 降，价格受供应过剩和关注"反内卷"反复发酵影响，建议反弹做空为主。 周三，硅铁主产区72硅铁自然块现金含税出厂5250-5350元/吨，75硅铁价格报5750-5850元/吨。 1月28日，硅铁前20名期货公司(全月份合约加总)多单持仓24.66万手，空单持仓26.51万手，多空比0.93。净持仓为-1.85万手，相较上日减少559 手。 机构观点 1月29日，硅铁期货盘中高位震荡运行，截至发稿主力合约报5744.00元/吨，大幅上涨2.32%。 【消息面汇总】 1月28日，郑商所硅铁期货仓单录得8710张，较上一交易 ...

铁矿石： （柳浠，从业资格号：F03087689；交易咨询资格号：Z0019538） 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约i2605价格有所下跌，收于783元/吨，较前一个交易日收盘价下跌5元/吨，跌幅 为0.6%，成交22万手，减仓0.6万手。港口现货主流品种市场价格，现青岛港PB粉60.8%786跌6，超特 粉673跌2。供应端，澳洲发运量有所增加，巴西发运量稳中有降，全球发运量小幅回升。需求端，铁水 产量环比增加0.09万吨至228.1万吨。47港港口库存、钢厂库存继续累库。多空交织下，矿价或将呈现震 荡走势。 焦煤： （邱跃成，从业资格号：F3060829；交易咨询资格号：Z0016941） 焦煤：昨日焦煤盘面上涨，截止日盘焦煤2605合约收盘1134.5元/吨，价格上涨18元/吨，涨幅1.61%，持 仓量减少14256手。现货方面，山西临汾地区主焦煤（A9.5、S0.5、G80）下调63元至出厂价1530元/ 吨，甘其毛都口岸蒙5#原煤1013元/吨，价格涨10；蒙3#精煤1070元/吨，较上期价格不变。供应端，部 分煤矿因事故以及搬家倒面停产，其余生产基本正常，年前下游仍有一定的补库预期，上游价格相对坚 挺，个 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026年01月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲刺120 | 3 | | 铜：美元承压，价格偏强 | 5 | | 锌：现实偏强 | 7 | | 铅：海外库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 10 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 11 | | 氧化铝：逢高沽空 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：跟随抬升 | 13 | | 钯：警惕补涨 | 13 | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 15 | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：下游低位采买意愿增强，宽幅震荡延续 | 17 | | 工业硅：上游减产，盘面亦有支撑 | 19 | | 多晶硅：会议情绪偏好 | 19 | | 铁矿石：预期现实博弈，价格震荡 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 硅铁：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate within the bottom range. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils both declined, and the inventory level gradually decreased and approached a relatively reasonable range. For rebar, the output showed an inverse seasonal increase, the apparent demand continued to weaken, and the inventory began to accumulate slightly, but the overall pressure remained limited [2]. - The overseas iron ore shipment volume increased slightly in the latest period. The supply pressure eased marginally as the overseas shipment entered the off - season. The inventory was at the highest level in the same period of the past five years, suppressing the absolute price. The iron ore price fluctuated in the short term, and the subsequent focus was on the steel mills' restocking and hot - metal production rhythm [5]. - The market sentiment for ferroalloys was affected by the Baogang explosion and other factors. In the future, the market sentiment and cost - push or supply - contraction factors would dominate the market. Attention should be paid to potential issues in manganese ore and the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. - The prices of coking coal and coke were affected by the Baogang incident and market sentiment. In the short term, the prices were expected to continue to show a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the short - term impact of market sentiment [14][15]. - For industrial silicon, there was an expectation of improved supply - demand, but the price was expected to oscillate due to the approaching Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the production reduction of large factories and the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises [18]. - The supply of polysilicon was expected to contract in the first quarter, and the supply - demand pattern was expected to improve. It was recommended to wait and see and operate cautiously [21]. - The float glass market lacked substantial positive drivers, and the short - term market was expected to continue to show a narrow - range oscillation [24]. - The soda ash market supply - demand pattern was generally loose, and the short - term market was expected to continue to operate weakly [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Rebar - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3123 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (- 0.09%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 17283 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 tons. The main contract position was 1.7444 million lots, with a month - on - month increase of 29747 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3160 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3240 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The output of rebar showed an inverse seasonal increase, the apparent demand continued to weaken, and the inventory began to accumulate slightly, but the overall pressure remained limited [2]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Information**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3280 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (- 0.27%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 178826 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 300 tons. The main contract position was 1.5177 million lots, with a month - on - month increase of 9222 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3280 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both declined, and the inventory level gradually decreased and approached a relatively reasonable range [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 783.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.63% (- 5.00). The position changed by - 6440 lots, reaching 564,600 lots. The weighted position was 920,000 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 56.20 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.70% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume increased slightly. The supply pressure eased marginally as the overseas shipment entered the off - season. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory continued to rise. The iron ore price fluctuated in the short term, and the subsequent focus was on the steel mills' restocking and hot - metal production rhythm [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: On January 28th, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) rose 0.24% intraday, closing at 5832 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, converted to 5910 yuan/ton on the futures market, with a premium of 78 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) rose 0.50% intraday, closing at 5632 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a premium of 118 yuan/ton over the futures price [7][8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market sentiment for ferroalloys was affected by the Baogang explosion and other factors. In the future, the market sentiment and cost - push (manganese ore for manganese silicon) or supply - contraction (due to losses or "dual - carbon" policy for ferrosilicon) factors would dominate the market. Attention should be paid to potential issues in manganese ore and the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: On January 28th, coking coal main contract (JM2605) rose 1.61% intraday, closing at 1134.5 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1588.4 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 1398.5 yuan/ton, a premium of 264 yuan/ton over the futures price. Coke main contract (J2605) rose 0.96% intraday, closing at 1684.0 yuan/ton [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of coking coal and coke were affected by the Baogang incident and market sentiment. In the short term, the prices were expected to continue to show a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the short - term impact of market sentiment [14][15]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2605) was 8760 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.13% (- 100). The weighted contract position changed by - 8748 lots, reaching 376349 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 440 yuan/ton; the 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, with a basis of 90 yuan/ton [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There was an expectation of improved supply - demand, but the price was expected to oscillate due to the approaching Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the production reduction of large factories and the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises [18]. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract (PS2605) was 50805 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.11% (- 1095). The weighted contract position changed by - 1108 lots, reaching 74886 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 49.5 yuan/kg, N - type dense material was 51.5 yuan/kg, and N - type re - feed material was 52.5 yuan/kg, with a basis of 1695 yuan/ton [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of polysilicon was expected to contract in the first quarter, and the supply - demand pattern was expected to improve. It was recommended to wait and see and operate cautiously [21]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Information**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 1067 yuan/ton, up 0.09% (+ 1). The North China large - plate price was 1010 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the Central China price was 1090 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On January 23rd, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 53.2158 million cases, up 202,800 cases (+ 0.38%) [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The float glass market lacked substantial positive drivers, and the short - term market was expected to continue to show a narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 1035 - 1130 yuan/ton [24]. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1198 yuan/ton, up 0.34% (+ 4). The Shahe heavy - soda price was 1158 yuan, up 4 yuan from the previous day. On January 23rd, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5212 million tons, down 53,800 tons (- 0.38%) [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The soda ash market supply - demand pattern was generally loose, and the short - term market was expected to continue to operate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 1160 - 1230 yuan/ton [26].

| | | | | | 铁合金早报 | | | | 2026/1/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | | 盘面 | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | | 宁夏#72 | 5250 | -30 | 0 | 5550 | 主力合约 | 5632 | 28 | 76 | | 硅铁自然块 | 内蒙#72 | 5280 | 0 | 0 | 5630 | 01合约 | 5774 | 16 | #N/A | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5250 | -50 | 0 | 5580 | 05合约 | 5606 | 20 | 64 | | | 陕西#72 | 5250 | 0 | -50 | 5550 | 09合约 | 5678 | 20 | 58 | | | 陕西#75 | 5850 | 0 | 0 | | 主力月基差 | -82 | -58 | -76 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏#72 | ...

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 1 月 28 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5632 | 28 | 76 | 122823 | 10420 | 185904 | -13253 | | SM主力合约 | 5832 | 14 | 46 | 139854 | 35909 | 374987 | 3539 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 硅铁 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5350 | 0 | 0 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5670 | -10 | -10 | | ...