1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 17, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5990, up 0.47%. For the spot market, Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese was reported at 5750. The market should be treated as oscillating with a bullish bias. [2] - On September 17, the ferrosilicon 2511 contract was reported at 5766, up 0.24%. The Ningxia ferrosilicon spot was reported at 5460. The market should also be treated as oscillating with a bullish bias. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM main contract closing price was 5,990 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan; SF main contract closing price was 5,766 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan [2] - SM futures contract open interest was 546,370 lots, down 6,931 lots; SF futures contract open interest was 391,124 lots, down 7,322 lots [2] - Manganese - silicon top 20 net open interest was - 84,236 lots, down 1,479 lots; Ferrosilicon top 20 net open interest was - 35,472 lots, up 2,789 lots [2] - SM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 34 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; SF 5 - 1 month contract spread was 104 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - SM warehouse receipts were 61,342, up 1,350; SF warehouse receipts were 17,857, up 820 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,530 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,700 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,730 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,460 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Manganese - silicon index average was 5,658 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan; SF main contract basis was - 306 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan [2] - SM main contract basis was - 240 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 block at Tianjin Port was 24 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; Silica (98% in Northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; Semi - coke (medium grade in Shenmu) was 690 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Manganese ore port inventory was 452.50 million tons, up 9.30 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate was 47.38%, up 0.93%; Ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate was 34.84%, down 1.50% [2] - Manganese - silicon supply was 214,130 tons, up 1,295 tons; Ferrosilicon supply was 113,000 tons, down 2,000 tons [2] - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory was 166,800 tons, up 6,300 tons; Ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory was 69,940 tons, up 3,380 tons [2] - Manganese - silicon national steel mill inventory was 14.98 days, up 0.74 days; Ferrosilicon national steel mill inventory was 14.67 days, up 0.42 days [2] - Five major steel types' manganese - silicon demand was 122,314 tons, down 1,354 tons; Five major steel types' ferrosilicon demand was 19,737.40 tons, down 338.70 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate was 83.85%, up 3.47%; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.20%, up 4.43% [2] - Crude steel output was 7,736.86 million tons, down 228.96 million tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - Inner Mongolia Energy Bureau ordered 15 coal mines to suspend production due to exceeding the approved capacity, with an over - capacity of over 10% in H1 2025 [2] - US Treasury Secretary said the Fed has been lagging, and the market is pricing in a 75 - basis - point rate cut from now to the end of the year [2] - US media reported that the US asked allies to impose high tariffs on China and India for importing Russian oil, and Japan refused [2] - Trump hinted at trade concessions to the UK, and US tech companies like Microsoft and OpenAI promised to invest over $40 billion in the UK, while the UK shelved the US steel zero - tariff plan [2] - Russian oil pipeline operator warned producers to cut output due to Ukrainian drone attacks on key export ports and refineries [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the price trend of finished products shows a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. The economic data in August slowed down overall and was lower than expected, increasing the possibility of more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales are still weak, and it will take time for the real - estate market to stabilize. The export volume declined slightly last week and remains in a weak and volatile pattern. The demand for rebar is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively strong, and their trends have diverged. Although it has entered the traditional peak season, the demand for rebar is still weak, and the demand for hot - rolled coils still has some resilience. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices still have the risk of decline. The raw material side is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the possible disturbances caused by safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. In the long - term, although the black sector prices may have a short - term correction risk due to real - demand factors, in the face of the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary double - easing and the opening of China's policy space, the black sector may gradually have the cost - effectiveness of long - allocation, and the key node may focus on the "Fourth Plenary Session" around mid - October [3][10]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3166 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.956%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 269,959 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,941 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.956248 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 21,822 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3230 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30 yuan/ton. The rebar apparent demand continued to be sluggish, with weak demand in the traditional peak season and increasing inventory pressure [2]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3402 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (0.949%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 58,841 tons, with no month - on - month change. The position of the main contract was 1.390939 million lots, a month - on - month increase of 42,984 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3420 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 40 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3430 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton. The output of hot - rolled coils increased, the apparent demand was relatively good, the overall demand was neutral, and the inventory decreased slightly [2]. Iron Ore - The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2601) was 803.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.94% (+7.50), and the position changed by - 3458 lots to 532,400 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 845,800 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.25 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 5.22%. The overseas iron ore shipments in the latest period rebounded to a high level in the same period. The shipments from Australia increased month - on - month, and the shipments from Brazil rebounded significantly. The shipments from non - mainstream countries also increased. The recent arrival volume decreased slightly. The daily average pig iron output in the latest period was 240,550 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,710 tons. The inventory in ports and steel mills' imported ore increased slightly. In general, the iron ore price will fluctuate in the short term [5][6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Manganese Silicon**: On September 16, the price of coking coal rose significantly during the day, driving the alloy price stronger. The main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) rose in the morning and then gradually declined, closing up 0.647% at 5944 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5820 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton, with a premium of 66 yuan/ton over the futures price. The daily - line level of the manganese silicon futures price maintains a range - bound pattern, and it is recommended that speculative positions mainly wait and see [8][9]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) opened higher and then gradually declined, closing flat at 5700 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/ton, with a premium of 50 yuan/ton over the futures price. The daily - line level of the ferrosilicon futures price also maintains a range - bound pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see. The fundamentals of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the black - sector market, with relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [9][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2511) was 8915 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.31% (+115). The weighted contract position increased by 4487 lots to 512,319 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - containing 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton, with a basis of 185 yuan/ton. The price of 421 was 9600 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 115 yuan/ton. The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The fundamentals are weak, but if the market continues to discuss relevant topics such as "anti - involution", the price may rise further [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract (PS2511) was 53,670 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.23% (+125). The weighted contract position decreased by 6229 lots to 293,968 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon in the SMM caliber was 49.5 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 1 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.5 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 1170 yuan/ton. The polysilicon price is more policy - driven, and the market focus is on capacity - integration policies and downstream price - passing progress. The price is volatile, and attention should be paid to position and risk control [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The main contract of glass closed at 1237 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 2.49% (+30). The quoted price of large - size glass in North China was 1150 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the quoted price in Central China was 1110 yuan, also unchanged. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 61.583 million cases, a month - on - month decrease of 1.467 million cases (-2.33%). The industry supply increased slightly, and the enterprise inventory decreased month - on - month. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [18]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1339 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 2.37% (+31). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1244 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 26 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.7975 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24,600 tons (-2.33%), of which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 1.0345 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37,400 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 763,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,800 tons. The industry supply decreased slightly due to the maintenance of production lines in Hubei Xindu and Haijing Yuehe. The market trading atmosphere was tepid, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Price - The report presents the latest prices, daily and weekly changes of various silicon - iron and silicon - manganese products from different regions, including spot prices, futures contract prices, and price differences between different contracts and regions [1][2][6] - It also shows the historical price trends of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese products from 2021 to 2025, such as the market prices of 72%FeSi in different regions, silicon - iron export and import average prices, and silicon - manganese主力合约收盘价 [2][6] Supply - For silicon - iron, it includes the production data of 136 Chinese silicon - iron enterprises (monthly and weekly), capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, and the export prices of 72%FeSi and 75%FeSi at Tianjin Port [4] - For silicon - manganese, it shows the weekly production in China, the procurement prices and quantities of silicon - manganese 6517 by Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and the prices of various manganese ores at ports [6] Demand - The demand - related data includes the estimated and actual monthly production of crude steel in China, the production of stainless - steel crude steel in China, the procurement volume of FeSi75 - B by Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and the demand for silicon - manganese in China (Steel Union caliber) [4][7] Inventory - For silicon - iron, it shows the inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China and different regions (weekly), the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the average available days of inventory in different regions [5] - For silicon - manganese, it includes the inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China (weekly), the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the average available days of inventory in China [7] Cost and Profit - The cost - related data includes the electricity prices in different regions for ferroalloys, the market prices of raw materials such as blue charcoal, silica dioxide, and iron oxide scale, and the production costs of silicon - iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia [5] - The profit - related data includes the production profit of blue charcoal in China, the profit of silicon - iron in different regions (spot and futures), the export profit of 75 silicon - iron, and the profit of silicon - manganese in different regions (Steel Union caliber) [5][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with more obvious weakness on the demand side. It is expected that the short - term thread disk will mainly operate in a narrow range. The iron ore price is expected to show a high - level oscillating trend under the interweaving of multiple factors. Both coking coal and coke are expected to operate in a wide - range oscillation in the short term. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are expected to operate in an oscillating manner in the short term [1][3]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views 3.1.1 Rebar - The rebar futures market was strongly oscillating. The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3136 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.29% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 65,900 lots in positions. Spot prices rose slightly, and trading volume recovered. From January to August, national fixed asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year, with real estate development investment down 12.9%, manufacturing investment up 5.1%, and infrastructure investment up 2.0%. The production of pig iron, crude steel, and steel from January to August was 579.07 million, 671.81 million, and 982.17 million tons respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of - 1.1%, - 2.8%, and 5.5%. In August, the production of pig iron, crude steel, and steel was 69.79 million, 77.37 million, and 122.77 million tons respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 1.0%, - 0.7%, and 9.7%. The daily output of crude steel in August was 2.496 million tons, the lowest daily output in the same period since 2018, a 2.9% decrease from the previous month. It is expected that the short - term rebar disk will mainly operate in a narrow range [1]. 3.1.2 Iron Ore - The price of the main iron ore futures contract i2601 first fell and then rose, closing at 796 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 360,000 lots and a reduction of 7,000 lots in positions. The market prices of mainstream port spot varieties were weakly operating. On the supply side, the shipments from Australia and Brazil increased. On the demand side, after the resumption of production from production restrictions, the molten iron output increased by 117,100 tons to 2.4055 million tons. The profitability rate of steel mills continued to decline. The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports increased by 304,000 tons to 144.5612 million tons, and the steel mill inventory increased by 530,000 tons. It is expected that the iron ore price will show a high - level oscillating trend [1]. 3.1.3 Coking Coal - The coking coal futures market rose. The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1187.5 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton or 3.76%, with an increase of 33,039 lots in positions. In the spot market, the price of main coking raw coal in Shanxi Lvliang area increased by 35 yuan to 770 yuan/ton, and the Mongolian coal market was strongly operating. On the supply side, affected by safety accidents, the production recovery in some areas was slow, and market trading was still weak. On the demand side, the molten iron output returned to a high level, but after the second round of coke price cuts, the profit of coke enterprises was further compressed, and downstream acceptance of high - priced raw materials was not high. It is expected that the short - term coking coal disk will operate in a wide - range oscillation [1]. 3.1.4 Coke - The coke futures market rose. The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1688.5 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton or 3.88%, with a reduction of 122 lots in positions. In the spot market, the spot price of coke in ports rose. On the supply side, the purchase price of coke by mainstream steel mills in East and North China was lowered by 50 - 55 yuan/ton, and the second round of coke price cuts was fully implemented. The current coke supply was relatively loose. On the demand side, the resumption of production of steel mills drove the rapid recovery of molten iron output, but the performance of the finished product market was flat, and the inventory accumulation of finished products still existed. Some steel mills began to control the arrival rhythm. It is expected that the short - term coke disk will operate in a wide - range oscillation [1]. 3.1.5 Manganese Silicon - On Monday, the manganese silicon futures price oscillated strongly. The main contract was reported at 5906 yuan/ton, a 1.2% increase from the previous day, and the positions of the main contract increased by 2156 lots to 327,700 lots. The market prices of manganese silicon in various regions were 5600 - 5850 yuan/ton, and the price in Inner Mongolia increased by 30 yuan/ton. The overall trend of the black sector was strong, and the price center of manganese silicon futures moved up. The mainstream steel tender pricing has not been announced yet. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of manganese silicon was still at a relatively high level. On the demand side, the recent output of rebar was at a relatively low level, and the demand of sample steel mills for manganese silicon decreased for two consecutive weeks. The cost of manganese ore was relatively firm, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased for two consecutive weeks. It is expected that the short - term manganese silicon will mainly operate in an oscillating manner [3]. 3.1.6 Ferrosilicon - On Monday, the ferrosilicon futures price oscillated strongly. The main contract was reported at 5700 yuan/ton, a 1.42% increase from the previous day, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 4705 lots to 213,300 lots. The aggregated prices of ferrosilicon in various regions were about 5280 - 5330 yuan/ton, and the prices in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia increased by 20 yuan/ton and 30 yuan/ton respectively. The overall trend of the black sector was strong, and the price center of ferrosilicon futures moved up. On the supply side, the short - term output of ferrosilicon was difficult to significantly decrease. On the demand side, the mainstream steel tender showed an increase in quantity and a decrease in price, and the demand of sample steel mills for ferrosilicon decreased for two consecutive weeks. The cost of ferrosilicon was rising, and the inventory of 60 sample enterprises reached a new high in the same period in recent years. It is expected that the short - term ferrosilicon will be affected by the black sector and mainly operate in an oscillating manner [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - This part provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices of various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as data on profits and price differences between varieties [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - This part includes multiple charts showing the closing prices, basis, inter - period contract spreads, and inter - variety contract spreads of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, which can help analyze the price trends and relationships of different black commodities [6][17][25]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team members include Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the black industry research field [53][54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 16, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5944, up 1.02%. The market should be treated as fluctuating with a bullish bias. For silicon - iron, the 2511 contract was reported at 5700, up 0.71%, and it should also be treated as fluctuating with a bullish bias [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM (manganese - silicon) main contract closing price was 5944 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan; SF (silicon - iron) main contract closing price was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged. SM futures contract holdings were 553,301 hands, down 166 hands; SF futures contract holdings were 398,446 hands, down 2074 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in manganese - silicon and silicon - iron both increased. The SM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 36 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the SF 5 - 1 month contract spread was 104 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. SM warehouse receipts decreased by 943 to 59,992; SF warehouse receipts increased by 720 to 17,037 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the spot market, the price of Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 5750 yuan/ton, while the price of Guizhou and Yunnan manganese - silicon decreased. The price of Inner Mongolia and Ningxia silicon - iron increased, and the price of Qinghai silicon - iron remained unchanged. The manganese - silicon index average increased by 38 yuan/ton to 5658 yuan/ton. The SM main contract basis increased by 12 yuan to - 194 yuan/ton, and the SF main contract basis increased by 50 yuan to - 240 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African manganese ore Mn38 block at Tianjin Port remained unchanged at 24 yuan/ton - degree. The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 1100 yuan/ton, and the price of semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) increased by 10 yuan/ton to 690 yuan/ton. Manganese ore port inventory increased by 9.30 tons to 452.50 tons, and the price of silica remained unchanged at 210 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate increased by 0.93 percentage points to 47.38%, and the silicon - iron enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.50 percentage points to 34.84%. Manganese - silicon supply increased by 1295 tons to 214,130 tons, and silicon - iron supply decreased by 2000 tons to 113,000 tons. Manganese - silicon and silicon - iron manufacturer inventories both increased, and the national steel mill inventories of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron also increased [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The demand for manganese - silicon and silicon - iron from the five major steel types decreased. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 3.47 percentage points to 83.85%, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate increased by 4.43 percentage points to 90.20%. The monthly crude steel output decreased by 228.82 tons to 7737 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From January to August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.2% year - on - year, with a slowdown of 0.1 percentage points compared to January - July. Infrastructure investment increased by 2.0%, with a slowdown of 1.2 percentage points; manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%, with a slowdown of 1.1 percentage points; real estate development investment decreased by 12.9%, with an expanded decline of 0.9 percentage points. In August, new - home prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, and in second - tier cities decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, with both declines narrowing by 0.1 percentage points. The next stage should continue to expand domestic demand, promote price recovery [2]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - For manganese - silicon, the output has been on the rise since mid - May, with neutral inventory levels. The port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 9.3 tons, and the demand for hot metal has returned to the previous level. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 155 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 315 yuan/ton. Steel mills are trying to lower prices, while factories are trying to hold prices. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - and 60 - day moving averages. For silicon - iron, after the previous profit improvement, the output has increased rapidly, with neutral inventory levels. The cost support has strengthened, and there is expected demand release in the downstream steel market before the festival. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 340 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 260 yuan/ton. The 75B silicon - iron tender price of HBIS in September is 5800 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from the previous round. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - and 60 - day moving averages [2].

Report Overview - The report is a black metal research report on ferroalloys, dated September 16, 2025, from the Commodity Research Institute of Galaxy Futures [2] Core Views - On September 16, ferroalloy futures prices fluctuated strongly. The silicon ferroalloy main - contract closed at 5700, with no change in price and a decrease of 810 in positions; the manganese silicon main - contract closed at 5944, up 0.64% with an increase of 7995 in positions [7] - Silicon ferroalloy: Spot prices rose by 50 - 120 yuan/ton on the 16th. Supply decreased slightly but remained high. Market expectations for domestic stimulus policies increased. Short - term prices rebounded but high - supply pressure persisted, so the target should not be set too high [7] - Manganese silicon: Manganese ore spot prices in Tianjin Port rose on the 16th, and manganese silicon spot prices increased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. Supply increased slightly and remained high, demand was under pressure, but cost support from low manganese ore port inventories existed. In the short - term, it will oscillate at the bottom [7] Market Information Futures - SF main - contract closed at 5700, with 0 daily change, 80 weekly change, 210936 in volume (up 10793), and 213259 in positions (down 810) - SM main - contract closed at 5944, up 38 daily, up 106 weekly, with 220244 in volume (up 36188), and 335721 in positions (up 7995) [4] Spot - Silicon ferroalloy: 72% FeSi prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin changed by 0 - 120 yuan/ton daily and 90 - 150 yuan/ton weekly - Manganese silicon: The prices of manganese silicon 6517 in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin changed by 20 - 100 yuan/ton daily and 50 - 130 yuan/ton weekly [4] Basis/Spread - Silicon ferroalloy: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis changed by 100 daily and 10 weekly; Ningxia - main contract basis changed by 120 daily and 40 weekly; SF - SM spread changed by - 38 daily and - 26 weekly - Manganese silicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis changed by 12 daily and - 56 weekly; Ningxia - main contract basis changed by 62 daily and 24 weekly [4] Raw Materials - Manganese ore (Tianjin): Australian lump, South African semi - carbonate, and Gabon lump prices changed by 0.1 - 0.2 yuan/ton degree daily and 0.2 - 0.3 yuan/ton degree weekly - Blue charcoal small materials: Prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia changed by 0 - 20 yuan/ton weekly [4] Market Judgement Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Anti - involution trading is heating up again. In the short - term, it follows a strong trend, but high - supply pressure persists, so the target should not be set too high - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Sell a straddle option combination [8] Important Information - On the 16th, Tianjin Port manganese ore spot prices: Australian lump Mn46% quoted at 42 (up 0.5), traded around 41.5; Australian lump Mn42% quoted at 40 - 40.5, traded around 40; South African lump quoted at 34.5, traded at 34 - 34.5; Gabon lump quoted at 40 - 40.5, traded at 39.5 - 40 (up 0.2) (unit: yuan/ton degree) - China - US economic and trade teams held talks in Madrid, Spain. The two sides actively implemented the important consensus of the phone call between the two heads of state and had in - depth and constructive communication on economic and trade issues [9] Related Attachments Cost and Profit - Silicon ferroalloy: Production costs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Qinghai, and Gansu were 5550, 5603, 5615, 5568, and 5618 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding losses of 150, 203, 235, 288, and 318 yuan/ton - Manganese silicon: Production costs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, and Guizhou were 5807, 5918, 6381, and 6120 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding losses of 127, 318, 701, and 470 yuan/ton [17][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given text Summary by Related Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy on September 16, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 natural block was 5280 yuan, with a daily change of 30 yuan and a weekly change of 80 yuan; the latest price of Inner Mongolia 72 was 5300 yuan, with a daily change of 20 yuan and a weekly change of 20 yuan; the latest price of Shaanxi 75 was 5950 yuan, with no daily or weekly change. The export price of Tianjin 72 was 1025 US dollars, with no daily or weekly change, and the export price of Tianjin 75 was 1105 US dollars, with a daily change of 5 US dollars and a weekly change of 25 US dollars [2]. - For silicon - manganese alloy on September 16, 2025, the factory - ex price of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5680 yuan, with a daily change of 30 yuan and no weekly change; the factory - ex price of Ningxia 6517 was 5600 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly change of 50 yuan; the factory - ex price of Guangxi 6517 was 5680 yuan, with a daily change of 30 yuan and no weekly change [2]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy production enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly and weekly production, capacity utilization rate in different regions such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, and the production of silicon - manganese alloy in China is also shown from 2021 - 2025 [4][6]. Demand - The demand data of silicon - manganese alloy in China from 2021 - 2025 are provided, including the demand volume (in ten thousand tons) and the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group [4][6][7]. Inventory - The inventory data of 60 silicon ferroalloy sample enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including weekly inventory in different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, and the inventory data of silicon - manganese alloy in China from 2021 - 2025 are also shown, including daily and weekly inventory [5][7]. Cost and Profit - The cost - profit data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon - manganese alloy from 2021 - 2025 are provided, including electricity prices in different regions, the market price of semi - coke, production costs, and profits in different regions [5][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity market (excluding non - ferrous and precious metals) is in a state of oscillatory correction and volume - shrinking convergence. The black sector shows signs of stabilization and strengthening, but the suppression from the real - world situation remains. Although the short - term price of the black sector may experience periodic corrections due to real - demand factors, with the expected overseas fiscal and monetary easing and the opening of China's policy space, the black sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long - term investment around mid - October [10]. - For steel products, the demand for rebar remains weak even in the traditional peak season, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively firm. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices still face the risk of decline. The raw material end is relatively strong, and the impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions needs to be continuously monitored [3]. - For iron ore, the short - term price is expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish. The recent increase in overseas shipments and the recovery of iron - making production support the demand for iron ore. However, attention should be paid to whether the internal contradictions in finished products will spread to the raw material end [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the short - term price is affected by the rise in coking coal. The disk prices of both maintain an oscillatory pattern, and it is recommended that speculative positions remain on the sidelines [9]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term valuation is neutral. If the market continues to discuss topics such as furnace - type elimination, the price may rise further; otherwise, the weak fundamentals will limit price increases. For polysilicon, the disk price is mainly influenced by policies, and the focus is on capacity - integration policies and downstream price - passing progress [14][15]. - For glass, although the inventory has decreased due to pre - holiday stocking, the overall market supply is still abundant, and terminal demand is weak. It is recommended to view it with caution and a slightly bullish attitude. For soda ash, the industry supply has slightly shrunk, and the market trading atmosphere is tepid. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar主力合约 was 3136 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (0.287%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 3369 tons to 255018 tons, and the positions increased by 65886 hands to 1.97807 million hands. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil主力合约 was 3370 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.178%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 58841 tons, and the positions increased by 22123 hands to 1.347955 million hands [2]. - **Spot Market**: The aggregated rebar price in Tianjin was 3210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3240 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Lecong was 3380 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shanghai, it was 3410 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the price trend of finished products is weak. The economic data in August slowed down, increasing the possibility of more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales are still weak, and the export volume has slightly declined. The demand for rebar is sluggish, and the inventory pressure is increasing, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively neutral, with a slight reduction in inventory [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the iron ore主力合约 (I2601) was 796.00 yuan/ton, down 0.44% (- 3.50 yuan). The positions decreased by 7364 hands to 535,800 hands, and the weighted positions were 851,600 hands. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 789 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 42.94 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 5.12% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Overseas iron - ore shipments have rebounded to a high level in the same period. The iron - making production has recovered, and the short - term demand for iron ore is supported. The port inventory and steel - mill imported - ore inventory have both increased slightly [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Prices**: On September 15, the manganese silicon主力 (SM601 contract) rose 1.27% to close at 5906 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon主力 (SF511 contract) rose 1.64% to close at 5700 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The disk prices of both maintain an oscillatory pattern. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the pressure at 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton and the support at 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton. For ferrosilicon, pay attention to the pressure at 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton and the support at 5400 - 5450 yuan/ton. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the industrial silicon主力 (SI2511 contract) was 8800 yuan/ton, up 0.63% (+ 55 yuan). The weighted positions increased by 20228 hands to 507,832 hands. The spot price of 553 non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 421 was 9500 yuan/ton, unchanged [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The production capacity is in surplus, the inventory is at a high level, and the demand is insufficient. If the market continues to discuss furnace - type elimination, the price may rise; otherwise, the weak fundamentals will limit price increases [14]. - **Polysilicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the polysilicon主力 (PS2511 contract) was 53545 yuan/ton, down 0.12% (- 65 yuan). The weighted positions decreased by 1472 hands to 300,197 hands. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 48.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 50.05 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type recycled material was 51.55 yuan/kg, unchanged, with a basis of - 1995 yuan/ton [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The disk price is mainly influenced by policies. The supply is close to the high level in the same period, and part of the inventory has been transferred downstream. The price of N - type dense and recycled materials has increased, and the component segment is relatively stalemate. Pay attention to capacity - integration policies and downstream price - passing progress [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the glass主力合约 was 1185 yuan/ton, up 0.34% (+ 4 yuan). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1150 yuan, unchanged; in Central China, it was 1110 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 146.7 million cases (- 2.33%) to 615.83 million cases. The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 60190 hands, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased their positions by 7686 hands [17]. - **Market Analysis**: The industry supply has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased due to pre - holiday stocking. However, the overall market supply is abundant, and terminal demand is weak. It is recommended to view it with caution and a slightly bullish attitude [17]. - **Soda Ash** - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the soda - ash主力合约 was 1287 yuan/ton, up 0.47% (+ 6 yuan). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1197 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises decreased by 2.46 million tons (- 2.33%) to 179.75 million tons, with the heavy - soda inventory decreasing by 3.74 million tons and the light - soda inventory increasing by 1.28 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders decreased their positions by 1480 hands, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 4605 hands [18]. - **Market Analysis**: The industry supply has slightly shrunk due to production - line overhauls. Some downstream enterprises have pre - holiday stocking needs, but most purchase based on rigid demand. The market trading atmosphere is tepid, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Overall Viewpoint**: The report analyzes the black - chain industry, including various products such as steel products, iron ore, coal - coke, and ferroalloys. It points out that different products have different market trends, with overall market conditions affected by factors like supply - demand relationships, production capacity utilization, and macro - policies [9][10][13]. - **Specific Product Viewpoints**: - **Steel Products**: The steel market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with steel prices expected to oscillate at a low level. The overall trend is weak [9]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, supported by pre - holiday restocking. The price of the main contract (2601 contract) is expected to range between 790 - 820 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market FE10 price of about 105 - 108 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Coal - Coke**: In the short term, the rapid resumption of production at both the supply and demand ends of coal - coke, especially the rapid increase in hot metal production, supports the rigid demand for raw materials. Pre - holiday restocking by downstream industries is expected to boost market sentiment [12]. - **Ferroalloys**: The market has entered the traditional peak season, but the short - term demand is still not up to expectations. The market sentiment is cautious. Ferroalloys maintain a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with inventory pressure increasing, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From September 5th to September 12th, 2025, the prices of various products showed different trends. For example, the price of the RB2601 contract of rebar decreased by 16 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.51%, and the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.62%. The price of the HC2601 contract of hot - rolled coil increased by 24 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.72%, and the spot price in Shanghai increased by 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.59% [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast - **Steel Products**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. Last week, the scale of steel mill maintenance decreased significantly, and the scale of resumption of production increased. The daily average hot metal output increased, but the downstream demand was weak, dragging down steel prices. The overall trend is weak [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is expected to increase steadily. Although the demand has increased in the short term due to pre - holiday restocking, in the medium term, the supply - demand relationship is changing from tight to balanced. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [10]. - **Coal - Coke**: The futures prices oscillated last week, with a slight weekly decline. The coking coal market is generally weak, but there are expectations for pre - National Day restocking. The rapid increase in hot metal production supports the demand for raw materials, and pre - holiday restocking is expected to boost market sentiment [12]. - **Ferroalloys**: The demand is not up to expectations for the time being. The supply is relatively high, and the inventory is increasing. The prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. 3.3 Product Data 3.3.1 Steel Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the output was 211.93 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.75 tons; the apparent demand was 198.07 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.00 tons. The total inventory was 653.86 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.86 tons [15][23]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Last week, the output was 325.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.90 tons; the apparent demand was 326.16 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20.80 tons. The total inventory was 373.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02 tons [29][33]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Port Inventory**: This week, the total import ore port inventory was 13849.47 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.15 tons; the port Australian ore inventory was 5806.51 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 69.51 tons; the port Brazilian ore inventory was 5228.22 tons, a week - on - week increase of 109.26 tons [44]. - **Steel Mill Inventory and Consumption**: This week, the inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8993.05 tons, a week - on - week increase of 53.18 tons; the daily consumption was 296.65 tons/day, a week - on - week increase of 15.98 tons [54]. 3.3.3 Coal - Coke - **Coke Inventory**: Last week, the total coke inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) was 906.21 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.95 tons [84]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Last week, the total coking coal inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal washing plants) was 2483.41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 62.28 tons [98]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Spot Prices**: Last week, the price of semi - carbonated manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 33.8 yuan/dry ton degree, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 yuan; the spot price of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia was 5650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan; the spot price of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5280 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan [121]. - **Production and Demand**: Last week, the output of 187 independent ferromanganese enterprises was 214130 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1295 tons; the demand for ferromanganese in five major steel products decreased by 1.09% week - on - week [129][133].

Report Date - The report is dated September 15, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Steel market: The steel fundamentals are under significant pressure, with super - seasonal inventory accumulation leading to a contraction in steel mill profits and an increasing negative feedback risk, which suppresses the upside space of the market. However, expectations for peak - season demand, positive macro - expectations, and anticipated pre - National Day restocking by downstream and steel mills support the raw material end, limiting the downside space. The steel market is expected to show a volatile consolidation pattern in the near term [3] - Iron ore market: Short - term iron ore prices are strong due to tight supply and rising demand. However, weak steel demand and shrinking steel mill profits cap the upside of iron ore prices. There may also be a risk of "good news being fully priced in" [19] - Coal and coke market: Except for rebar, other steel products in the blast furnace process still have profits, so blast furnace steel mills have weak willingness to cut production. Electric furnace steel mills are suffering significant losses, with some regions having production resumptions and others cut - offs. High steel supply and inventory pressure will limit the rebound height of coal and coke prices in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, the "anti - involution" theme remains a focus, and pre - National Day inventory transfers may improve the supply - demand structure. The coal and coke market is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile pattern [31] - Ferroalloy market: The trading logic for ferroalloys in the long - term lies in the "anti - involution" expectation. After the price decline, ferroalloys are near the cost line, limiting the downside. The market still has expectations for supply - side contraction, and the supply - demand pressure may ease as production profit declines and the output in the southern silicon - manganese producing areas is expected to fall [49] - Soda ash market: Market sentiment and focus will fluctuate, and factors affecting supply or cost will be repeatedly traded. Soda ash demand is stable, but the supply - demand pattern remains one of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventories in the upstream and mid - stream capping prices [64] - Glass market: High inventories in the upstream and mid - stream and weak demand limit the price increase. There are differences in opinions regarding potential supply cuts in the fourth quarter, so the glass price lacks a clear trend and trading logic. The short - term supply - demand pattern is one of strong supply and weak demand [89] Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3136, 3205, and 3045 yuan/ton respectively; those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3370, 3374, and 3398 yuan/ton respectively [4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions showed slight changes from September 12 to September 15, 2025. For example, the rebar summary price in China increased from 3275 to 3284 yuan/ton [7] - The 01 - 05 and 05 - 10 month - spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil remained unchanged from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [4] - **Ratios** - The ratios of 01, 05, and 10 rebar to 01, 05, and 09 iron ore and 01, 05, and 09 coke remained at 4 and 2 respectively on September 15, 2025, unchanged from September 12 [16] Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 796, 774.5, and 757 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 3.5, - 3, and - 59 yuan/ton respectively [20] - The 01, 05, and 09 basis values of iron ore on September 15, 2025, were - 5.5, 16.5, and - 22 yuan/ton respectively, with some changes compared to September 12 and September 8 [20] - **Fundamentals** - As of September 12, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 240.55 tons, with a weekly increase of 11.71 tons and a monthly decrease of 0.11 tons [26] - The 45 - port iron ore inventory on September 12, 2025, was 13849.47 tons, with a weekly increase of 24.15 tons and a monthly increase of 30.2 tons [26] Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month - spreads were 143.5, - 46.5, and - 97 respectively, with significant changes compared to September 12 [36] - The coke 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month - spreads also showed large fluctuations from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [36] - **Spot Prices and Profits** - The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had various changes from September 12 to September 15, 2025. For example, the coking coal price of Australian Peak Downs increased by 3 yuan/ton [36] - The import profits of coking coal from different countries also changed, with the Russian K10 import profit increasing by 67 yuan/ton from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [38] Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron** - On September 15, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was - 8 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 18 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 40 yuan/ton [50] - The silicon - iron 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads were - 108, 280, and - 172 respectively, with some weekly changes [50] - **Silicon Manganese** - The silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia on September 15, 2025, was 124 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 44 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 66 yuan/ton [53] - The silicon - manganese 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads also had significant changes from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [53] Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contract prices were 1383, 1412, and 1308 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 15, 249, and 18 yuan/ton respectively [65] - The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month - spreads changed significantly, with the 5 - 9 month - spread dropping by 234 yuan/ton [65] - **Spot Prices** - The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained mostly stable on September 15, 2025, compared to September 12, with only a few regions having small changes [68] Glass - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the glass 05, 09, and 01 contract prices were 1308, 1354, and 1207 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 24, 386, and 27 yuan/ton respectively [90] - The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month - spreads changed significantly, with the 5 - 9 month - spread dropping by 362 yuan/ton [90] - **Sales and Production** - The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions of glass showed fluctuations from September 6 to September 12, 2025. For example, the sales - to - production ratio in the Shahe region was 73 on September 12 [91]