Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - On November 10, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5820, up 0.97%, and the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot was reported at 5570. The market should be treated as oscillating, and investors are advised to control risks [2]. - On November 10, the ferrosilicon 2601 contract was reported at 5588, up 0.83%, and the Ningxia ferrosilicon spot was reported at 5270. The market should be treated as oscillating, and investors are advised to control risks [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价为5820元/吨，环比上涨60元；SF主力合约收盘价为5588元/吨，环比上涨62元 [2] - SM期货合约持仓量为568951手，环比减少955手；SF期货合约持仓量为350554手，环比减少6769手 [2] - 锰硅前20名净持仓为 - 57191手，环比减少8479手；硅铁前20名净持仓为 - 36432手，环比增加142手 [2] - SM5 - 1月合约价差为58元/吨，环比上涨4元；SF5 - 1月合约价差为66元/吨，环比无变化 [2] - SM仓单为16357张，环比增加1999张；SF仓单为7197张，环比增加1498张 [2] Spot Market - 内蒙古、贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5600元/吨，环比上涨30元；云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5580元/吨，环比无变化 [2] - 内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5300元/吨，青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5200元/吨，宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5270元/吨，环比均无变化 [2] - 锰硅指数均值为5595元/吨，环比下降51元；SM主力合约基差为 - 220元/吨，环比下降30元；SF主力合约基差为 - 318元/吨，环比下降62元 [2] Upstream Situation - 南非矿Mn38块天津港价格为32元/吨度，硅石（98%西北）价格为210元/吨，环比均无变化 [2] - 内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格为1250元/吨，兰炭（中料神木）价格为880元/吨，环比均无变化 [2] - 锰矿港口库存为439.7万吨，环比增加8.3万吨 [2] Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率为40.24%，环比下降2.75个百分点；硅铁企业开工率为36.26%，环比增加0.18个百分点 [2] - 锰硅供应为201880吨，环比减少5845吨；硅铁供应为114100吨，环比增加900吨 [2] - 锰硅厂家库存为319500吨，环比增加5000吨；硅铁厂家库存为78690吨，环比增加6700吨 [2] - 锰硅全国钢厂库存为15.7天，环比下降0.23天；硅铁全国钢厂库存为15.67天，环比增加0.15天 [2] - 五大钢种锰硅需求为121113吨，环比减少3379吨；五大钢种硅铁需求为19813.7吨，环比减少461.6吨 [2] Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.15%，环比增加1.42个百分点；247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为87.79%，环比下降0.8个百分点 [2] - 粗钢产量为7349.01万吨，环比减少387.84万吨 [2] Industry News - 中国10月CPI超出市场预期同比创下九个月高点，核心CPI同比创20个月最大；PPI环比录得去年11月以来首次上涨，同比跌幅创逾一年最小 [2] - 2024年底全国住房城乡建设工作会议明确将“有力有序推行现房销售”列为2025年重点工作之一，湖南岳阳平江县出台新规成为湖南首个全面推行现房销售的县城 [2] - 伊朗因气候干旱和供水设施老化面临缺水问题，首都德黑兰将实行夜间限水措施 [2] Viewpoint Summary - 锰硅方面，宏观上10月猪肉价格下降影响CPI，PPI同比降环比涨；基本面库存回升快、产量高位回落、成本端进口锰矿石港口库存增加、需求端铁水季节性回落；利润方面内蒙古和宁夏现货利润为负；市场10月主流钢招定价环比下降；技术上日K位于20和60均线之间，震荡运行 [2] - 硅铁方面，宏观上河北多地解除重污染天气应急响应；供需弱平衡、库存中性、兰炭企稳短期成本有支撑；利润方面内蒙古现货利润为负、宁夏现货利润为正；技术上日K位于20和60均线之间，震荡运行 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel mills' profitability has continued to decline, falling below 40% this week. Pig iron production has slightly decreased due to the decline in steel mills' profitability and is expected to continue this downward trend. The demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline, and the inventory of the five major steel products has increased more than seasonally. Ferroalloys also have high inventory levels, facing significant pressure to reduce inventory. After the macro - sentiment settles, ferroalloys will return to the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand, but the price will be supported by the cost side. It is expected that ferroalloys will fluctuate [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - **Silicon iron**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.75% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 18.8% [3]. - **Silicon manganese**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.62% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 4.4% [3]. 3.2 Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there is concern about a decline in ferroalloy prices, for a long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to sell SF2601 and SM2601 futures contracts with a hedging ratio of 15%. The suggested entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250 and SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement management**: When the procurement of regular inventory is low and there is a need to purchase according to orders, for a short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy SF2601 and SM2601 futures contracts with a hedging ratio of 25%. The suggested entry range is SF: 5200 - 5300 and SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - **Contradiction between high inventory and weak demand**: Ferroalloy production profits are gradually declining, and the market has low expectations for further production increases. Downstream demand is about to enter the off - season, and ferroalloy inventory is at a high level. Both silicon iron and silicon manganese enterprise inventories are at their highest levels in the past 5 years. Silicon manganese enterprise inventory has increased by 1.5% month - on - month, and silicon iron enterprise inventory has increased by 9.3% month - on - month, facing significant inventory pressure [4]. - **Challenge of cost support**: Recently, the correlation between coking coal prices and ferroalloy prices has been gradually weakening. The increase in coking coal prices has not driven up ferroalloy prices [4]. - **Contradiction between anti - involution expectations and weak reality**: The anti - involution tone remains, and the market still has some enthusiasm. There are still certain expectations for supply - side contraction, but the high inventory of ferroalloys and weak downstream demand remain unchanged. The market's long - and short - term logic lies in the game between strong expectations and weak reality, and there is a high risk of a price increase followed by a decline due to the lack of substantial action [4]. 3.4利多 and 利空解读 - **Positive factors**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)", which mentions that the capacity replacement ratio for ironmaking and steelmaking in each province (autonomous region, municipality) should be no less than 1.5:1. The fourth round of price increases for coke has started. In October, China exported 828,000 vehicles, and from January to October, the cumulative export was 6.513 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 23.3%. In October, China exported 443 ships, and from January to October, the cumulative export was 5660 ships, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 20.5%. In the first 10 months, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 13.43 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.7% [6]. - **Negative factors**: The steel market is in the peak season but with weak performance. The profitability of steel mills has declined significantly, and the negative feedback pressure is gradually increasing. Pig iron production has continued to decline. The coil and plate segment still has high inventory and high production. Although production has decreased month - on - month, it is still at the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years. The consumption side lacks driving force, and the inventory has increased more than seasonally, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years. Recently, Thailand has launched an anti - dumping investigation on domestic steel plates [6]. 3.5 Daily Data - **Silicon iron**: On November 10, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 26, with a daily increase of 60 and a weekly decrease of 56. The warehouse receipts were 7197, with a daily increase of 1498 and a weekly increase of 2688 [6]. - **Silicon manganese**: On November 10, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 210, with a daily increase of 38 and a weekly decrease of 28. The warehouse receipts were 16357, with a daily increase of 1999 and a weekly increase of 6337 [7][8].

Report Title - Manganese Silicon Weekly Report (11.3 - 11.7) [1] Core Viewpoints - From the cost side, the third round of coke price hikes has been implemented and prices are stable after the increase, while the manganese ore market is showing a strong trend, making the cost side of silicon manganese relatively firm. In the northern region, after the second round of coke price hikes in late October, freight rates in the main production areas of Inner Mongolia have increased. In Ningxia, due to the decline in electricity prices last month, the overall cost gap with the main production areas in Inner Mongolia has decreased. [2] - From the supply side, in early November, the silicon manganese market continued the weak and volatile trend of October. In November, the wait - and - see sentiment in both the north and south regions is still strong. In the northern region, there are planned new silicon manganese production capacities, but the specific ignition time depends on the market situation. Currently, northern enterprises mainly focus on fulfilling steel procurement orders and futures warehouse receipts, with a low willingness to quote for retail. In the southern region, the dry season has officially begun, and the electricity price in Yunnan has increased significantly, leading to production cuts in alloy plants. [2] - From the demand side, steel mills will conduct concentrated maintenance in mid - to - late November, with an estimated reduction in production, which may reduce the demand for silicon manganese alloy. Overall, the current silicon manganese market shows a weak and volatile pattern, and the most important factor to watch in November is the impact of steel mill production cuts on the demand for silicon manganese alloy. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate in the short term. [2] Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon Supply - **Capacity**: The document presents the monthly capacity of Chinese silicon manganese enterprises [6][7] - **Annual Production**: It shows the annual production of silicon manganese in Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, other regions, and the whole of China [8][9] - **Weekly, Monthly Production and Operating Rate**: The weekly and monthly production of Chinese silicon manganese and the weekly operating rate of Chinese silicon manganese enterprises are presented [10][11] - **Regional Production**: It includes the monthly production of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, as well as the daily average production of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi [12][13] Manganese Silicon Demand - **Steel Procurement Price**: The monthly procurement prices of silicon manganese 6517 by various steel enterprises such as Baosteel, Baowu Egang, and others are shown [15][16] - **Daily Average Hot Metal and Profit**: The weekly daily average hot metal production and profitability of 247 Chinese steel enterprises are presented [17][18] Manganese Silicon Import and Export - The monthly import and export volumes of Chinese silicon manganese iron are presented [19][20] Manganese Silicon Inventory - The weekly inventory of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises in China, and the monthly average available inventory days in China, the northern region, and the eastern region are presented [21][22] Manganese Silicon Cost - **Manganese Ore Import Volume**: The monthly import volumes of manganese ore from different sources and trade methods are presented [23][24] - **Manganese Ore Port Inventory and Available Days**: The weekly port inventory of manganese ore in China, Qinzhou Port, and Tianjin Port, as well as the weekly average available inventory days in China are presented [25][26] - **High - Grade Manganese Ore Port Inventory**: The weekly port inventory of high - grade manganese ore from different origins in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port is presented [27][28] - **Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price**: The daily price of different types of manganese ore in Tianjin Port is presented [29] - **Regional Cost**: The daily cost of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi is presented [30][31] Manganese Silicon Profit - The daily profit of silicon manganese in the northern region, southern region, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi is presented [32][33]

Report Information - Date: November 10, 2025 [1] - Type: Ferroalloy Morning Report Core Content Summary Price - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: - Spot prices of silicon ferroalloy in various regions have declined to different degrees. For example, the price of 72 silicon ferroalloy natural block in Ningxia is 5150 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 30 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 5220 yuan/ton, also with a weekly decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2]. - The export price of 72 silicon ferroalloy in Tianjin is 1045 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 10 US dollars/ton; the export price of 75 silicon ferroalloy is 1100 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 5 US dollars/ton [2]. - The prices of silicon ferroalloy futures contracts have also declined. For example, the main contract price of silicon ferroalloy is 5526 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 60 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 26 yuan/ton [2]. - **Silicon Manganese Alloy**: - The ex - factory prices of silicon manganese alloy in various regions have decreased. For example, the ex - factory price of 6517 silicon manganese alloy in Inner Mongolia is 5620 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 40 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, it is 5560 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of the main contract of silicon manganese alloy is 5760 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 38 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 12 yuan/ton [2]. Supply - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: - The production capacity utilization rates of 136 silicon ferroalloy production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi and other regions have shown different trends in different periods from 2021 to 2025 [4]. - The weekly output of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China (with a production capacity accounting for 95%) has also fluctuated in different years [4]. - **Silicon Manganese Alloy**: - The weekly output of silicon manganese alloy in China has shown certain changes from 2021 to 2025 [6]. - The operating rates of silicon manganese alloy enterprises in China have also fluctuated [6]. Demand - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: - The demand for silicon ferroalloy is related to the production of products such as crude steel, stainless steel, and metal magnesium. For example, the production of crude steel in China has shown different trends in different months from 2021 to 2025, which will affect the demand for silicon ferroalloy [4]. - The procurement volume and price of FeSi75 - B by Hebei Iron and Steel Group have also changed in different months from 2021 to 2025 [4]. - **Silicon Manganese Alloy**: - The demand for silicon manganese alloy in China (according to the Steel Union's caliber) has shown an upward trend from 2021 to 2025, and the export volume has also changed [7]. Inventory - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: - The inventories of 60 sample enterprises of silicon ferroalloy in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and other regions have fluctuated in different weeks from 2021 to 2025 [5]. - The total number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of silicon ferroalloy on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (CZCE) has also changed [5]. - **Silicon Manganese Alloy**: - The total number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective inventories of silicon manganese alloy on the CZCE have shown different trends from 2021 to 2025 [7]. - The inventories of 63 sample enterprises of silicon manganese alloy in China have also changed in different weeks [7]. Cost and Profit - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: - The production costs of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia have fluctuated from 2021 to 2025, which is related to factors such as electricity prices and raw material prices [5]. - The profits of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia, including the profit of converting to the main contract on the futures market and the spot profit, have also changed [5]. - The export profit of 75 silicon ferroalloy has also shown different trends [5]. - **Silicon Manganese Alloy**: - The profits of silicon manganese alloy in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region (according to the Steel Union's caliber) have fluctuated from 2021 to 2025 [7]. - The profit of converting Guangxi silicon manganese alloy to the main contract on the futures market has also changed [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand side of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese faces pressure, but the cost side provides some support, and it is expected to continue the bottom - oscillating trend. Previous short positions can be reduced on dips [5] - For unilateral trading, due to the weakening supply - demand margin and cost support, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom this week, and previous short positions can be reduced on dips; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell out - of - the - money straddle combinations on rallies [6] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - **Silicon - iron**: The supply side shows no downward trend, with the start - up rate and output of sample enterprises both rising and remaining at a high level. The demand side sees a decline in the apparent demand and output of steel samples, and an unexpected decline in hot - metal output. Although hot - metal output may rebound after the end of the phased production restrictions in Tangshan, there is a downward expectation on the raw - material demand side due to poor steel profits. The cost side has support as the spot price of thermal coal hits a new high this year, and the ferroalloy electricity price in the southwest production area has risen significantly after entering the dry season [5] - **Silicon - manganese**: The supply side has a slight decline but is still at a relatively high level year - on - year. The demand side shows a decline in the apparent demand and output of steel samples, and more high - cost area steel mills are undergoing maintenance, increasing market concerns about negative feedback. Under the pressure of high - level supply and weakening demand, the silicon - manganese inventory has continued to rise recently. The cost side has temporary support as overseas manganese ore quotes are rising steadily, and the electricity cost has increased during the dry season [5] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Due to the weakening supply - demand margin and cost support, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom this week, and previous short positions can be reduced on dips [6] - **Arbitrage**: Stay on the sidelines [6] - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money straddle combinations on rallies [6] 2. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis Supply - demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: The daily average pig - iron output of 247 sample steel mills is 234.22 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.14 tons. The weekly demand for silicon - iron in five major steel types (about 70% of the total demand) is 1.98 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 tons; the weekly demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel types (70%) is 12.11 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34 tons [11] - **Supply**: The start - up rate of 136 independent silicon - iron enterprises is 36.26%, a week - on - week increase of 0.18%; the weekly supply of silicon - iron is 11.41 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 tons. The start - up rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises is 40.24%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.75%; the weekly supply of silicon - manganese (99%) is 20.19 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58 tons [12] - **Inventory**: In the week of November 7th, the inventory of 60 independent silicon - iron enterprises is 7.87 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.67 tons; the inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of the national production capacity) is 31.95 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 tons [13] 3. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Cost and Profit - **Silicon - manganese**: In Inner Mongolia, the production cost is 5805 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 185 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 48.0%; in Ningxia, the production cost is 5834 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 274 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 21.7%; in Guangxi, the production cost is 6339 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 739 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 4.8%; in Guizhou, the production cost is 6159 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 579 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 7.0%. The production cost in the north is 5814 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 217 yuan/ton; in the south, the production cost is 6234 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 643 yuan/ton [31] - **Silicon - iron**: In Inner Mongolia, the production cost is 5556 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 336 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 31.6%; in Ningxia, the production cost is 5659 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 509 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 25.8%; in Shaanxi, the production cost is 5663 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 543 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 15.7%; in Qinghai, the production cost is 5717 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 547 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 14.3%; in Gansu, the production cost is 5765 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 565 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 11.6% [42] Other Data - **Spot price - basis**: The document provides historical data charts of the market price of Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese FeMn65Si17, the market price of Inner Mongolia silicon - iron 72%FeSi, the basis of the main contract of Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese, and the basis of the main contract of Inner Mongolia silicon - iron [18] - **Production situation of dual - silicon enterprises**: It shows the weekly output and start - up rate of domestic silicon - manganese and silicon - iron enterprises [23] - **Steel - mill production situation**: It includes the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate, weekly total steel output, profitability rate, social total steel inventory, and daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills [29] - **Cost of manganese ore**: It shows the price of South African Mn36.5% semi - carbonate manganese lumps at Tianjin Port, the CIF quotation of South African South32 semi - carbonate manganese lumps for shipment, and the prices of manganese ores from different origins [40] - **Cost of carbon elements and electricity price**: It shows the prices of Fugu blue - charcoal small materials, Yulin thermal - coal lump coal, Ningxia chemical coke, and regional electricity prices [50][52] - **Steel - procurement prices of representative steel mills in Hebei**: It shows the monthly procurement prices of silicon - iron FeSi75 - B and silicon - manganese 6517 by Hebei Iron and Steel Group [54] - **Monthly output of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron**: It shows the monthly output and cumulative output of domestic silicon - manganese and silicon - iron, as well as the cumulative year - on - year change [60][62][65] - **Import and export of manganese ore and silicon - iron**: It shows the monthly net import volume of domestic manganese ore and the monthly net export volume of silicon - iron [67][68] - **Demand for metallic magnesium**: It shows the price of Fugu metallic magnesium Mg99.9% and the cumulative output of metallic magnesium in Yulin, Shaanxi [70] - **Silicon - iron inventory of alloy plants and steel mills**: It shows the silicon - iron inventory of alloy plants, the regional distribution of alloy - plant silicon - iron inventory, the available days of steel - mill silicon - iron inventory, and the regional distribution of steel - mill silicon - iron inventory available days [73][76][78] - **Manganese - ore inventory of alloy plants, steel mills, and ports**: It shows the available days of steel - mill silicon - manganese inventory, the regional distribution of steel - mill silicon - manganese inventory available days, the total manganese - ore inventory at Tianjin Port, and the silicon - manganese inventory of alloy plants [81][82]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core contradiction affecting the ferroalloy market is the imbalance between high inventory and weak demand, challenges to cost support, and the gap between anti - involution expectations and weak reality. With the steel mills' profitability rate falling below 40% and iron - water production expected to decline, ferroalloy demand is likely to decrease. After the macro - sentiment fades, the ferroalloy market will return to its fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand, but will be supported by the cost side, expected to fluctuate [2]. - In the short - term, downstream finished - product inventory is accumulating seasonally, and the steel mills' profitability is declining, which may lead to a negative feedback loop in the black - metal industry, further weakening ferroalloy demand. In the long - term, the anti - involution expectation exists, but without substantial progress, there is a high risk of price fluctuations [6][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - High inventory and weak demand: Ferroalloy production profit is declining, and the market doesn't expect further production increase. Downstream demand is entering the off - season, and both silicon ferro and silicon manganese inventories are at a five - year high, with silicon manganese inventory rising by 1.5% and silicon ferro by 9.3% week - on - week [2]. - Cost support challenges: The correlation between coking coal prices and ferroalloy prices is weakening, and the increase in coking coal prices doesn't drive up ferroalloy prices [2]. - Anti - involution expectation and weak reality: The anti - involution sentiment remains, but the high inventory and weak demand situation persists. The market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality, with a high risk of price spikes followed by drops [2]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Technically, the 10 - day and 20 - day moving averages of ferroalloys are downward, and the MACD red bars are shrinking [11]. - **Price Range**: The price range of the silicon ferro main contract 2601 is 5200 - 6400, and that of the silicon manganese main contract 2601 is 5500 - 6500 [12]. - **Basis and Calendar Spread Strategies**: The basis is expected to narrow slightly, and no basis strategy is recommended. Although the 1 - 5 calendar spread of ferroalloys is at a five - year low, it's not advisable to buy the spread immediately due to high inventory and weak demand. The 1 - 5 spread may further weaken, but the risk of reverse - arbitrage is also high [12]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range of silicon ferro is 5300 - 6000, and that of silicon manganese is 5300 - 6000. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of silicon ferro is 12.75% (18.8% in the three - year historical percentile), and that of silicon manganese is 9.62% (4.4% in the three - year historical percentile) [13]. - **Hedging Strategies**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, it's recommended to short ferroalloy futures to prevent inventory depreciation. For enterprises with low procurement inventory, it's recommended to buy ferroalloy futures to lock in procurement costs [13]. 3.2 Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is soliciting public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry", with a capacity replacement ratio of at least 1.5:1. The fourth round of coke price increases has started. China's exports of automobiles, ships, and electromechanical products have increased [14]. - **Negative News**: The steel market is in a weak season, with steel mills' profitability declining, iron - water production decreasing, and the plate market having high inventory and production. Thailand has launched an anti - dumping investigation on domestic steel plates [14][15]. - **Weekly Data**: Silicon ferro production was 11410 tons (up 90 tons week - on - week), and silicon manganese production was 201880 tons (down 5845 tons week - on - week). Silicon ferro factory inventory was 78690 tons (up 6700 tons week - on - week), and silicon manganese factory inventory was 319500 tons (up 5000 tons week - on - week) [14][16]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - Next Monday: China's M2 money supply for October. - Next Friday: China's year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail总额 and industrial added value above designated size for October. 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Analysis 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Analysis - **Unilateral Trends and Fund Movements**: The silicon ferro main contract 2601 closed at 5526, up 0.47% week - on - week, with a total open interest of 357300 lots, up 12.14% week - on - week. The silicon manganese main contract 01 closed at 5760, down 0.21% week - on - week, with a total open interest of 571100 lots, up 8.89% week - on - week. The net position of silicon ferro is short, and the net short position of silicon manganese is increasing [17]. - **Basis and Calendar Spread Structure**: The term structure of ferroalloys generally shows a contango structure, but the term structure of some silicon ferro and silicon manganese contracts is improving to a backwardation structure. The basis has been fluctuating slightly. The 1 - 5 calendar spread is at a five - year low, and it's not recommended to buy it immediately. With the anti - involution news, the 1 - 5 spread may further weaken [21][22]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Ferroalloy production profit is declining. Silicon ferro production remains high, and there is a strong incentive for enterprises to cut production. Silicon manganese production has been falling for several weeks [37]. - The export profit of silicon ferro has improved, and its export volume is expected to increase [63]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - Supply: As the off - season approaches and production profit has been falling, there is a higher possibility of production cuts. With the arrival of the flat - water season, silicon manganese production in the southern region may decline, and overall ferroalloy production is expected to decrease [67]. - Demand: Downstream demand is entering the off - season. The profit of downstream products like rebar and hot - rolled coils is declining due to inventory accumulation, which will suppress the demand for ferroalloys. Iron - water production is likely to decline, and ferroalloy demand for steel - making may also decrease [67][77]. - Inventory: Warehouse receipts are expected to continue to decline due to forced cancellation and seasonal factors, and the total inventory will gradually decrease [67]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side Projection - Due to the decline in production profit, especially for silicon ferro, there is a strong incentive for production cuts, and the production is expected to decline slightly [69]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side Projection - The demand for ferroalloys is affected by the off - season and the decline in downstream product profit. The high iron - water production is difficult to maintain, and the demand for ferroalloys in steel - making may decrease [77]. 3.5.4 Inventory - Side Projection - Given the high operating rate of ferroalloy enterprises and weak downstream demand, enterprise inventory is likely to continue to accumulate. After the forced cancellation of warehouse receipts, new receipts will be registered, and the total inventory is expected to increase [93].

Report Information - Report Title: Silicon Ferrosilicon & Manganese Silicon Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: November 9, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analysts: Li Yafei, Jin Yuanyuan [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The prices of alloys this week were affected by both macro and sector sentiment, showing an oscillating trend with strong support at the bottom of the market. The current fundamental contradictions are accumulating, and demand may shrink due to steel mills' production cuts. Continuous monitoring of the supply changes on the alloy side is necessary [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Overall Market Situation - This week, alloy prices were affected by macro and sector sentiment, showing an oscillating trend with strong support at the bottom of the market. The fundamental contradictions continued to accumulate, and demand may shrink due to steel mills' production cuts. Attention should be paid to whether the steel mills' production restrictions will trigger a negative feedback cycle for furnace materials [5]. 2. Silicon Ferrosilicon Supply - This week, silicon ferrosilicon production was 114,100 tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.80%. The main production areas currently have no clear intention to cut production [4][56]. Demand - In September, the export volume was 40,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 14.57%. However, from the performance of downstream steel mills, the actual output of molten iron decreased, and the demand for silicon ferrosilicon may be weakly supported [4][70]. Inventory - As of November 7, the inventory of 60 sample enterprises was 78,690 tons, a week-on-week increase of 9.31%, reaching a record high. There may be inventory pressure at the end of the month [4][78]. Profit - The weekly on - screen profit was 7.00, a week-on-week decrease of 92.96%, and the spot profit was -369.00, a week-on-week decrease of 67.35%. The profit was compressed with the market [4]. 3. Manganese Silicon Supply - This week, manganese silicon production was 201,900 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.81%. The production was at a relatively high level. The cost side was firm, but attention should be paid to the production plans in northern regions [4][18]. Demand - The steelmaking demand was weakly supported as the molten iron output decreased. The steel mills' procurement was mainly based on rigid demand, and the overall demand may weaken [26]. Inventory - As of November 7, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises was 319,500 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.59%. The steel mills maintained a low - inventory strategy, and the short - term downstream demand may weaken [4][31]. Profit - The weekly on - screen profit was 8.03, a week-on-week decrease of 57.38%, and the spot profit was -131.97, a week-on-week decrease of 41.65%. The profit was significantly reduced [4]. 4. Macro and Micro Environment Macro - Domestically, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued the "Announcement on Tax Policies Related to Gold." Overseas, the US "small non - farm" ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, exceeding expectations, indicating signs of stability in the labor market [5]. Micro - The molten iron output continued to shrink, weakly supporting the demand for raw materials. The fundamental contradictions of alloys continued to accumulate, and attention should be paid to whether the steel mills' production restrictions will trigger a negative feedback cycle for furnace materials [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel products may show a volatile trend after challenging the previous low support level, as the arrival volume of iron ore at ports has increased significantly, port inventories are accumulating, iron ore valuations are relatively high, the consumption demand for finished products has entered the off - season, and the subsequent improvement in apparent demand is difficult. Additionally, recent macro - sentiment has weakened, and iron ore prices have declined while coking coal prices have corrected [3]. - The iron ore market is in a short - term pattern of "exhausted macro - benefits and pressured fundamentals". With high global shipments, accumulating port inventories, shrinking steel mill profits, falling hot metal production, and high finished product inventory pressure, the upside potential for iron ore prices is limited [22]. - The demand for coking coal and coke has reached a phased peak, and short - term prices may face adjustments. However, in the long - term, due to policies restricting coking coal supply elasticity and upcoming winter storage, the downward adjustment space for coking coal spot prices may be limited. If coking coal supply tightens in the fourth quarter and winter storage demand is released in mid - to late November, the overall valuation center of the black industry may rise [34]. - Ferroalloys are expected to be volatile, as they have returned to the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand after the macro - sentiment subsided, but are supported by the cost side [46]. - The rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken due to the renewed expectation of glass cold repair. Although the cost side is expected to be firm, without production cuts, the valuation has limited upward elasticity. The medium - to long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and the upper - and middle - stream inventories are high, restricting prices, but there is cost support below [55]. - The coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe will be gradually implemented this month, which may affect market supply and sentiment, but its impact is considered limited as the off - season approaches and the middle - stream inventory is high. The 01 contract of glass may continue to be highly contested until near delivery. Structurally, without unexpected production cuts, the price of the 01 contract of glass will tend to decline, but with cost support and policy expectations in the long - term [83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Products - **Prices and Spreads**: - On November 7, 2025, the closing prices of螺纹钢01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3034, 3095, and 3132 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding price changes compared to November 6. The closing prices of热卷01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3245, 3254, and 3276 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The spot prices of螺纹钢 and热卷 in different regions also showed certain changes on November 7 compared to November 6. For example, the汇总 price of螺纹钢 in China was 3226 yuan/ton, and the汇总 price of热卷 in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton [10][12]. - The卷螺差 and基差 of螺纹 steel and hot - rolled coils also had corresponding values and changes [16][10]. - The ratios of螺纹/铁矿 and螺纹/焦炭 remained stable on November 7 compared to November 6 [19]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: - On November 7, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 760.5, 740, and 722 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding基差 values. The prices of different iron ore varieties such as日照PB粉,日照卡粉, and日照超特 also decreased compared to November 6 [23]. - **Fundamentals**: - The日均铁水产量 was 234.22 million tons on November 7, showing a decreasing trend compared to previous periods. The 45港到港量 increased significantly, and the 45港库存 also continued to accumulate [27]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: - On November 7, 2025, the仓单 costs and基差 of coking coal from different sources (such as唐山蒙5,口岸蒙5, etc.) and coke (such as日照港湿熄,晋中湿熄, etc.) had corresponding values and changes [37]. - The期货月差 of coking coal and coke also showed certain trends [37]. - **Fundamentals**: - The即期焦化利润 improved slightly, but most coking plants still suffered serious losses. The demand for coking coal and coke has reached a phased peak, and the number of steel mills under maintenance has increased [34]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: - On November 7, 2025, the硅铁基差 in Ningxia was - 26, and the spot prices in different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, etc. remained stable or decreased slightly compared to previous periods. The仓单 quantity increased [46]. - **Silicon Manganese**: - The硅锰基差 in Inner Mongolia was 210 on November 7, and the spot prices in different regions also showed certain changes. The仓单 quantity increased significantly [48]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: - On November 7, 2025, the closing prices of纯碱01, 05, and 09 contracts were 1210, 1294, and 1363 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding月差 values. The基差 values in different regions such as沙河 and Qinghai also changed [56]. - The重碱 and轻碱 market prices in different regions had corresponding values on November 7, and the价差 between重碱 and轻碱 also varied by region [59]. - **Fundamentals**: - The glass cold - repair expectation may lead to a weakening of the rigid demand for soda ash. The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high in the medium - to long - term, and the upper - and middle - stream inventories are high [55]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: - On November 7, 2025, the closing prices of玻璃01, 05, and 09 contracts were 1091, 1225, and 1315 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding月差 values. The基差 values in different regions such as Shahe and Hubei also changed [84]. - **Fundamentals**: - The coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe may affect market supply and sentiment, but the impact is limited due to the approaching off - season and high middle - stream inventory. The 01 contract of glass may continue to be highly contested until near delivery [83].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★ (implied by the context as more positive) [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ★★★ (implied by the context as more positive) [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★☆★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall steel market is under pressure due to weak demand expectations and declining exports, with the disk remaining under pressure. The iron ore market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state, while the coke and coking coal markets may be in a relatively strong and volatile state. The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets have strong price support at the bottom [1][2][3][5][6][7] Summary by Category Steel - The disk showed a weak and volatile trend. The demand and production of thread steel and hot rolled coil both declined, with inventory changes varying. Iron - water production continued to fall, and the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain remained to be alleviated. The overall domestic demand was weak, and steel exports declined from the high level. The disk was under pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower edge of the shock range and marginal demand changes [1] Iron Ore - The disk declined. The global iron ore shipment was at a high level, and the domestic arrival volume increased significantly. The port inventory was accumulating. The terminal demand entered the off - season, and the iron - water production continued to decrease. The supply - demand relationship was gradually loosening, and there was still a risk of negative feedback in the off - season industrial chain. It was expected to be in a weak and volatile state [2] Coke - The price fluctuated downward. After the third round of price increase was quickly implemented, there was an expectation of a fourth round. The coking profit was average, and the daily production and inventory decreased slightly. The downstream demand was weak, and the steel mills had a strong desire to lower the price. The disk price was at a premium, and it was expected to be in a relatively strong and volatile state [3] Coking Coal - The price fluctuated downward. The Mongolian coal import volume was high, and the coking coal production decreased slightly. The total inventory increased slightly, and attention should be paid to the impact of safety inspections. The downstream demand was weak, and the steel mills had a strong desire to lower the price. The disk price was at a discount to Mongolian coal, and it was expected to be in a relatively strong and volatile state [5] Silicon Manganese - The price fluctuated. The iron - water production continued to decline, while the weekly production of silicon manganese increased slightly, and the inventory was slowly accumulating. The manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the price had strong support at the bottom [6] Silicon Iron - The price fluctuated. The iron - water production continued to decline, but the export demand increased to about 40,000 tons, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The supply remained at a high level, and the inventory decreased. The price had strong support at the bottom [7]

Core Insights - Molybdenum iron, an alloy composed of 55%-75% molybdenum, is essential for producing stainless steel, heat-resistant steel, acid-resistant steel, and tool steel, with a density of 9.0g/cm³ to 9.5g/cm³ and a melting point around 2700°C [2][4] Production and Demand - In 2024, China's cumulative molybdenum iron production is projected to reach 217,700 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, with apparent demand at 217,600 tons [2] - From January to August 2025, cumulative production is expected to be 161,400 tons, a significant year-on-year growth of 13.8%, with apparent demand at 161,700 tons, indicating a balanced supply-demand scenario [2] - Major production regions in China include Liaoning, Henan, and Shaanxi [2] Price Trends - The price of 60% molybdenum iron in China surged from 98,600 CNY/ton in 2020 to 252,200 CNY/ton in 2023, driven by intensified supply-demand conflicts [2] - In 2024, prices are expected to remain high but decline compared to 2023 due to supply release and weakened downstream demand [2] Import and Export Dynamics - Between 2022 and 2024, molybdenum iron exports have been declining, while imports have been increasing, indicating a shift towards a stronger import market [2] - In 2024, molybdenum iron imports are projected at 7,963.5 tons, a substantial year-on-year increase of 61.0%, while exports are expected to be 8,122.9 tons, down 4.7% [2] - For January to August 2025, import and export volumes are anticipated to be 3,834.4 tons and 3,601.0 tons, respectively [2] Industry Outlook - The demand for molybdenum iron is expected to remain resilient, supported by the stainless steel and special steel sectors, as well as the upgrading of high-end manufacturing [2]