受益于"反内卷"带来政策利好预期提振，7月以来黑色金属集体上行，锰硅期现价格同样跟涨。然而，月 末政治局会议结束，强预期兑现，市场运行逻辑回归产业端，当前锰硅供需格局表现偏弱，且成本推涨难 续，锰硅上行趋弱，价格开启高位震荡调整。 利多因素发酵，锰硅低位回升 7月权益市场与商品市场均迎来上涨，主要是受益于"反内卷"政策利好预期，国内工业品集体上行，尤以 光伏相关品种最为明显，黑色金属表现同样亮眼，全品种期价均录得显著上涨。不过，"反内卷"仅是黑色 上涨的触发因素，本轮上行存有产业和宏观基础。具体来看，淡季黑色产业矛盾累积有限，而部分品种跌 至边际成本附近，叠加"反内卷"引发市场对供给侧改革预期，为此，品种低价与政策预期共同引燃市场看 多情绪，黑色金属触底回升。 图1：国内商品指数走势 锰硅价格同样跟涨。截至8月4日，锰硅主力期价收于5972元/吨，7月以来累计上涨5.18%，期间最高更是 涨至6414元/吨，刷新自3月中旬主力合约价格新高。期价强势带动现货上行，但涨幅相对偏低，基差有所 走弱。截至8月4日，内蒙古、宁夏、天津等地价格分别为5720元/吨、5700元/吨、5850元/吨，同期分别上 涨170元、 ...

仓单 最新 日变化 周变化 出厂价折盘面 日变化 周变化 宁夏#72 5400 -150 -100 5700 主力合约 5674 -8 -166 内蒙#72 5400 -100 -100 5750 01合约 5816 4 -132 青海#72 5450 -50 -100 5780 05合约 5896 22 -94 陕西#72 5350 -150 -100 5650 09合约 5674 -8 -166 陕西#75 5850 -50 50 主力月基差 26 -142 66 现货 盘面 最新 硅铁自然块 产区汇总价 品种 项目 铁合金早报 | 宁夏#6517 | 5700 | 0 | 0 | 5-9月差 | 124 | 16 | 22 | 硅锰贸易商价 | 江苏#6517 | 5900 | -50 | -150 | 9-1月差 | -86 | -12 | -12 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of the black building materials market are still weak, and the futures prices may gradually return to the real - trading logic. Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the terminal demand and cost - side support need to be closely monitored [3]. - After the "anti - involution" sentiment cools down, prices are expected to move closer to the real fundamentals, and the influence of demand - side changes on prices will gradually increase. Speculative funds are advised to be cautious, while hedging funds can take appropriate opportunities [11]. 3. Summary by Category Steel Products - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3204 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.031%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease in registered warehouse receipts and positions. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3417 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (0.470%), also with a decrease in registered warehouse receipts and positions. In the spot market, rebar prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased, while hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai increased [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The overall commodity market was weak. In terms of macro - factors, the Politburo meeting's stance on real estate remained unchanged, and export competitiveness weakened. Rebar speculative demand declined with price drops and inventory increased, while hot - rolled coil demand slightly recovered, production rose rapidly, and inventory slightly accumulated. Both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are at a five - year low [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 790.50 yuan/ton, up 0.96% (+7.50), with a decrease in positions. The weighted position was 94.81 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 774 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 31.92 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.88% [5]. - **Market Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipments decreased, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments declining, while non - mainstream country shipments increased and arrivals increased. The average daily pig iron output decreased, port inventory decreased, and steel mill imported ore inventory slightly increased. The steel mill profitability rate is high, and there is still demand support, while the supply growth is limited, and port inventory is trending downward [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) rose 0.17% to close at 5972 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) fell 0.14% to close at 5674 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin also decreased by 50 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, after the "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, market funds had significant differences, and prices fluctuated widely. In the long term, the fundamentals of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are still in an oversupply situation, and future demand is expected to weaken [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed at 8360 yuan/ton, down 1.65% (-140), with an increase in weighted positions. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 48980 yuan/ton, down 0.84% (-415), with a decrease in weighted positions [13][14]. - **Market Analysis**: For industrial silicon, production in all major producing areas has increased, and cost support is limited. Although polysilicon production is expected to increase in August, the price may be weak in the short term. For polysilicon, prices are affected by capacity integration expectations and corporate price - holding strategies, and are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [14][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe decreased by 55 yuan, and the national floating glass inventory decreased. The spot price of soda ash remained stable, and the domestic soda ash manufacturer inventory increased. The downstream demand for soda ash was lukewarm, and the supply slightly increased [17][18]. - **Market Analysis**: Glass prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and in the long term, they will follow macro - sentiment. If real estate policies are introduced, prices may rise. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term [17][18]. Coal and Coke - **Price Data**: The prices of some coal and coke varieties increased, such as Shanxi Liulin low - sulfur coal up 50 yuan, and Ordos secondary coke up 50 yuan [19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the proactive financial support initiatives in Ulanqab City aimed at enhancing the development of enterprises through innovative financial service models and targeted policies [1][4] Group 2 - A platform has been established to facilitate communication between enterprises and financial institutions, achieving 100% coverage of key financing needs with a total loan issuance of 1.322 billion yuan [1] - Monthly government-financial-enterprise matching activities have been organized, resulting in financing intentions of 17.092 billion yuan and credit amounts of 4.592 billion yuan [1] Group 3 - Innovative guarantee models have been developed to assist small and micro enterprises, with a total of 51 million yuan loaned to 11 enterprises through the collaboration of the municipal financing guarantee company and banks [2] - As of June, the financing guarantee company has added 105 new projects amounting to 506 million yuan, with 202 projects under guarantee totaling 926 million yuan [2] Group 4 - Ulanqab City has introduced tailored financial service plans for specific industries, utilizing supply chain finance and green credit to address financing challenges [3] - The iron alloy industry has received 5.042 billion yuan in financing, supporting over 90 enterprises through an innovative supply chain financing model [3] - Green credit initiatives have provided 743 million yuan in loans for six renewable energy projects, aiding the transition to sustainable energy [3] - A special service team has been established to assist small and micro enterprises in overcoming financing difficulties, utilizing tax records for credit assessments [3]

1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall**: The black - series market has entered a high - level consolidation period due to the disappointment of policy increment expectations from important domestic meetings. The market trading focus has returned to the industrial fundamentals [12]. - **Steel Products**: The short - term market fluctuations are large, and it is recommended to wait and see. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [9]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, it will operate within a range. After the disappointment of policy expectations, the market will enter a policy vacuum period, and the price will fluctuate at a high level. The i2601 contract price is expected to be in the range of 745 yuan/ton - 780 yuan/ton, and the outer - market FE09 contract price is in the range of 98.5 - 103 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the short - term price fluctuations have intensified. It is recommended to wait and see. Attention should be paid to coal production data, the sustainability of high daily iron - water production of steel mills, and changes in imported coal clearance [13]. - **Ferroalloys**: After important meetings, the market sentiment has cooled down. The alloy price is expected to follow the black - metal market trend, and the short - term fluctuation range may increase. Attention should be paid to steel procurement and supply - side policy implementation [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - **Futures Prices**: The prices of most varieties in the black - series futures market declined last week. For example, the price of rebar RB2510 dropped from 3356 yuan/ton on July 25th to 3203 yuan/ton on August 1st, a decrease of 4.56%. The price of coking coal JM2601 dropped from 1318.5 yuan/ton to 1092.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.14% [7]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of most varieties also showed a downward trend. For example, the price of HRB400E Φ20 rebar in Shanghai dropped from 3430 yuan/ton to 3360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.04%. The price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke dropped from 1430 yuan/ton to 1380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.50% [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black - Series Market Forecast - **Steel Products** - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment has a greater impact on the market. The blast - furnace utilization rate and daily iron - water output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly, while the average capacity utilization rate and operating rate of 90 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills increased. The fundamentals of steel products are neutral to bearish, and the market is mainly influenced by macro and market sentiment [9]. - **View**: Wait and see due to large short - term fluctuations [9]. - **Attention Points**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [9]. - **Iron Ore** - **Logic**: The policy expectations have failed to materialize. On the supply side, the support from external mines is gradually weakening, and the supply may increase in the medium term. On the demand side, the daily iron - water output has declined, but the demand still has some resilience. The inventory is expected to be stable or increase slightly in the short term [12]. - **View**: It will operate within a range in the short term, and the price will fluctuate at a high level [12]. - **Attention Points**: Military parade production - restriction policies, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the supply recovery speed [11]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Logic**: The market speculation sentiment has cooled down. The coal - coke futures prices have oscillated and declined. The production of some Shanxi coal mines has decreased, and the demand for coking coal still has some resilience. The inventory is affected by factors such as production and demand [13]. - **View**: Wait and see due to intensified short - term price fluctuations [13]. - **Attention Points**: Coal production data, the sustainability of high daily iron - water production of steel mills, and changes in imported coal clearance [13]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Logic**: The market sentiment has cooled down. On the supply side, the production of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron has increased. On the demand side, the demand for silicon - manganese has increased slightly, while the demand for silicon - iron has decreased. The inventory situation of the two is different. The cost side has certain support [14]. - **View**: The price will follow the black - metal market trend, and the short - term fluctuation range may increase [14]. - **Attention Points**: Tariff policy changes, domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits and production, and domestic production - restriction policies [14]. 3.3 Product Data - **Steel Products** - **Rebar**: Last week, the output was 211.06 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 0.9 tons), the apparent demand was 203.41 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 13.17 tons), and the total inventory increased by 7.65 tons [16]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Last week, the output was 322.79 tons (a week - on - week increase of 5.3 tons), the apparent demand was 320 tons (a week - on - week increase of 4.76 tons), and the total inventory increased by 2.79 tons [33]. - **Iron Ore** - **Port Inventory**: The total inventory of imported ore at 45 ports was 13657.90 tons last week, a week - on - week decrease of 132.48 tons [47]. - **Steel Mill Inventory and Consumption**: The inventory of 247 steel mills was 9012.09 tons, a week - on - week increase of 126.87 tons, and the daily consumption was 299.46 tons/ day, a week - on - week decrease of 1.64 tons [55]. - **Global Shipment**: The global total shipment was 3200.9 tons last week, a week - on - week increase of 91.8 tons [69]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coke was 915.4 tons last week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.83 tons; the total inventory of coking coal was 2493.29 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 37.96 tons [98][106]. - **Profit and Utilization Rate**: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 45 yuan last week, a week - on - week increase of 9 yuan, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.2% [115]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Spot Price**: The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 35 yuan/dry ton - degree last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 yuan; the price of silicon - manganese was 5720 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan; the price of silicon - iron was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [131]. - **Production and Demand**: The output of silicon - manganese was 190820 tons last week, a week - on - week increase of 4340 tons; the demand for silicon - manganese was 123715 tons, a week - on - week increase of 45 tons [137][144]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of silicon - manganese was 164000 tons on August 1st, a week - on - week decrease of 41000 tons; the inventory of silicon - iron was 65590 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3460 tons [148].

4500 5500 6500 7500 8500 9500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：内蒙古（日） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：青海 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：宁夏 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4500 5500 6500 7500 8500 9500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/0 ...

| 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 供应：厂家利润修复，开工率回升带动产量增幅扩大。 | | | | | 需求：铁水产量高位，季节性小幅回调。 | | | | | 库存：厂库回升近6%。 | | | | | | 投机不宜追 | | | | 成本：周内原料持稳。 | 涨，下方支 | 反内卷政 | | | | 撑关注5500- | 策、中美 | | 硅铁 | 基差：盘面冲高回落，基差再度转正。 | | 贸易谈判 | | | 总结：上周以焦煤为主的前期涨幅较大商品，出现大幅减仓下跌行情，叠加政治 | 5600附近。 | 等政策不 | | | | 厂家择机卖 | | | | 局会议后政策表述温和等因素，工业品周内以回调为主，硅铁周内冲高回落，回 | 保。 | 确定性 | | | 吐前两周所有涨幅。基本面看，周产量继续回升，需求维持淡季偏弱格局，且预 | | | | | 期依旧偏差。近期宏观政策预期主导，商品波动风险加剧，合金也受商品大环境 | | | | | 影响，产业卖保思路不变，但注意资金控制，投机建议谨慎操作，以区间震荡思 | | | ...

光期研究 见微知著 铁合金策略月报 2 0 2 5 年 0 8 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 铁合金："反内卷"引领，基本面驱动有限 p 2 铁合金："反内卷"引领，基本面驱动有限 锰 硅 供应：7月锰硅产量持续增加，各地区产量均有不同程度回升。据铁合金在线，7月锰硅总产量约为89.27万吨，较6月增加5.69万吨。 其中硅锰6517产量约为80.39万吨，较6月增加5.89万吨左右。其中宁夏、云南产量增幅明显，增量在1万吨以上，内蒙地区增量约7000吨，主 产区中，近贵州、广西产量略有下降。 需求：粗钢产量降幅明显，样本钢厂锰硅需求量当周值仍处于历史同期偏低水平，钢厂备货意愿有限。6月我国粗钢产量8318.4万吨， 同比下降9.19%。截止7月末，样本钢厂锰硅需求量当周值12.37万吨，同比基本持平，绝对值偏低。7月钢厂锰硅库存可用天数为14.24天，近 年来同期新低。 库存：样本企业库存环比下降，同比仍然增加。7月63家样本样本企业库存连续两周下降，最近一周降幅超4万吨至16.4万吨。去年同 期为10.4 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The increase in raw material costs supports the price of silicomanganese. Recently, the manganese ore market has been stable, with various manganese ore varieties rising by 0.5 - 1 yuan/ton degree at the beginning of this week. The supply of South African ore at southern ports is tight, and the bargaining power of factories has decreased. Additionally, the fifth round of coke price hikes has further strengthened cost support [2]. - The high - level oscillation of the silicomanganese futures market supports the spot price. The futures price fluctuated around 6000 yuan/ton this week, and the market trading atmosphere was warm. There was still high - level hedging in the northern region, and the transmission effect of the futures market on the spot market was obvious, leading to a slight increase in spot prices in both the north and the south [2]. - The resonance of macro - policies and downstream demand has injected confidence into the market. Stimulated by macro - favorable policies such as the national anti - involution policy, the downstream stainless steel market has strengthened, and market activity has gradually recovered. Combined with strong support from the raw material side and positive transmission from the futures market, it has jointly promoted the increase in silicomanganese prices [2]. - Overall, the current silicomanganese market has clear and continuously effective supporting factors, and it is expected that the market will continue to operate in a strong and oscillatory manner in the short term. Attention should be paid to the trend of raw material prices and changes in downstream actual procurement volume [2]. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicone Supply - **Capacity**: The report presents the monthly capacity of Chinese silicomanganese enterprises and the annual production of silicomanganese in different regions of China, including Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, and other areas [6][7]. - **Production - Annual**: The annual production data of silicomanganese in different regions of China are shown [7]. - **Production - Weekly, Monthly, and Operating Rate**: The report shows the weekly and monthly production of silicomanganese in China and the weekly operating rate of Chinese silicomanganese enterprises [10]. - **Production - Regional Production**: The monthly production of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, as well as the daily average production of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi are presented [11][12]. Manganese Silicone Demand - **Steel Tender Purchase Price**: The monthly purchase prices of silicomanganese by various steel enterprises, such as Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Baowu Egang, Chengde Jianlong, etc., are shown [15]. - **Daily Average Hot Metal and Profit**: The weekly daily average hot metal production and profitability of 247 steel enterprises in China are presented [17]. Manganese Silicone Import and Export - The monthly import and export quantities of silicomanganese in China are shown [19]. Manganese Silicone Inventory - The weekly inventory of 63 sample silicomanganese enterprises in China, as well as the monthly average available days of inventory in China, the northern region, and the eastern region are presented [21]. Manganese Silicone Cost - **Manganese Ore - Import Volume**: The monthly import volume of manganese ore in China, including imports from different regions such as Gabon, Africa, and Australia, is shown [23]. - **Manganese Ore - Port Inventory and Available Days**: The weekly port inventory of manganese ore in China, including at Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port, and the weekly average available days of inventory in China are presented [25]. - **Manganese Ore - High - Grade Ore Port Inventory**: The weekly port inventory of high - grade manganese ore in China, including Australian, Gabonese, and Brazilian manganese ore at Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port, is shown [27]. - **Manganese Ore - Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price**: The daily price of different types of manganese ore at Tianjin Port, such as South African semi - carbonate manganese ore, Australian manganese ore, and Gabonese manganese ore, is presented [28]. - **Regional Cost**: The daily cost of silicomanganese in different regions, including Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi, is shown [29]. Manganese Silicone Profit - **Regional Profit**: The daily profit of silicomanganese in different regions, including the northern region, the southern region, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi, is presented [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamental situation of the black building materials market remains weak, and the futures price may gradually return to the real - trading logic. Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the terminal demand repair rhythm and the cost - side support for the finished product price need to be focused on [3]. - After the "anti - involution" sentiment is released, the market capital divergence increases, and the price is expected to gradually move closer to the real fundamentals. It is not recommended that speculative funds participate excessively, while hedging funds can seize the opportunity according to their own situation [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3203 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.06%) from the previous trading day, with a registered warehouse receipt of 85034 tons and a main contract position of 1.760703 million lots, down 55323 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3401 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.324%), with a registered warehouse receipt of 57174 tons and a main contract position of 1.45476 million lots, up 20824 lots [2]. - **Market Situation**: The rebar speculative demand decreased significantly with the price decline, resulting in inventory accumulation; the hot - rolled coil demand increased slightly, the output rose rapidly, and the inventory increased slightly. The current inventory levels of rebar and hot - rolled coil are at the lowest in the past five years [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 783.00 yuan/ton, up 0.51% (+ 4.00), with a position change of - 9550 lots to 410,000 lots. The weighted position was 943,800 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 768 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 32.81 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.02% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to rise, the FMG shipment volume increased significantly, the Brazilian shipment volume decreased slightly, and the non - mainstream country shipment volume dropped to a low level this year. The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly, the port inventory decreased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased slightly [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position**: On August 1st, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 0.27% at 5962 yuan/ton, and the main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 0.25% at 5682 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Situation**: Last week, the prices of both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fluctuated widely. It is recommended that investment positions be mainly on the sidelines, and hedging positions can participate opportunistically. Fundamentally, both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are facing the problems of over - capacity, weakening demand, and potential cost reduction [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed at 8500 yuan/ton, down 2.97% (- 260), with a position change of - 18592 lots to 194340 lots. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2509) closed at 49200 yuan/ton, up 0.14% (+ 70), with a position change of - 16227 lots to 110762 lots [13][14]. - **Market Situation**: Industrial silicon still has problems of over - supply and insufficient effective demand. After the "anti - involution" sentiment fades, the price may weaken. Polysilicon prices are affected by industry capacity integration expectations and enterprise price - holding strategies, and the short - term price may fluctuate widely [13][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory**: The spot price of glass in Shahe decreased by 22 yuan to 1245 yuan, and the national floating glass inventory decreased by 3.87% month - on - month. The spot price of soda ash was 1240 yuan, with a slight increase in inventory [17][18]. - **Market Situation**: Glass prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and follow macro - sentiment fluctuations in the long term. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term [17][18].