Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing trend of "anti-involution" in the copper smelting industry, driven by economic slowdown and the need for industry self-discipline to prevent vicious competition [3][4][6] - The copper smelting sector is facing significant losses, necessitating a focus on capacity optimization to improve profitability [3][22] - The report suggests that the copper industry is expected to return to profitability in the long term, with an emphasis on optimizing capacity and improving operational efficiency [3][22] Industry Overview - The "anti-involution" movement was first highlighted in a Politburo meeting on July 30, 2024, aiming to strengthen industry self-discipline and prevent harmful competition [3][5] - The copper smelting industry is currently experiencing substantial losses, with the need for a shift towards capacity optimization and the elimination of outdated production methods [3][22] - The report identifies the mismatch between copper mining and smelting capacities as a critical issue, with domestic smelting capacity expanding while raw material supply remains heavily reliant on imports [45][49] Economic Context - The report draws parallels between the current "anti-involution" movement and previous supply-side reforms, both occurring in a context of economic growth slowdown [7][9] - It highlights that both periods experienced declining GDP growth rates and prolonged periods of negative Producer Price Index (PPI) [9][10] - The current economic environment is characterized by weaker demand on the consumer side, exacerbating challenges for industries like copper smelting [10][14] Capacity Optimization Strategies - The report outlines key strategies for optimizing copper smelting capacity, including the elimination of outdated production capacity and the adoption of advanced smelting technologies [3][52] - It emphasizes the importance of constructing high-standard smelting facilities and effectively utilizing recycled resources [3][52] - The report suggests that companies with cost advantages in smelting are likely to have stronger profitability as the industry undergoes restructuring [3][22] Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on companies with smelting cost advantages and those involved in mining and smelting integration, such as Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and others [3][22] - It indicates that the copper smelting industry may see a turnaround in profitability as capacity mismatches are addressed and operational efficiencies are improved [3][22] Challenges and Risks - The report notes that the copper smelting industry is currently facing significant challenges, including high production costs and a reliance on imported raw materials [3][45] - It highlights the need for the industry to adapt to changing market conditions and regulatory environments to mitigate risks associated with overcapacity and competition [3][22]

Group 1 - The company primarily produces and sells cathode copper, with by-products including gold, silver, and industrial sulfuric acid [2] - The company also recovers various rare metals such as molybdenum, selenium, tellurium, platinum, palladium, and rhenium, but does not directly produce copper foil [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - The Fed's expected rate cut in September, the shift from the traditional domestic consumption off - season to the peak season, and the expected accumulation of domestic electrolytic copper inventories due to continuous imported copper arrivals may lead to strong fluctuations in Shanghai copper prices. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously and pay attention to support and resistance levels [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - On September 2, 2025, the closing price of the active Shanghai copper futures contract was 79,660 yuan, down 120 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 61,677 lots, a decrease of 16,804 lots; the open interest was 180,065 lots, down 579 lots; the inventory was 19,501 tons, a decrease of 699 tons [2]. - The price of SMN 1 computer copper + 12 was 80,160 yuan, up 260 yuan from the previous day; the Shanghai copper basis was 500 yuan, an increase of 380 yuan [2]. - The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic) was 9,980.5 US dollars, up 96.5 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, a decrease of 158,775 tons [2]. - The COMEX copper futures active contract closing price was 4.641 US dollars, up 0.10 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory was 281,075 tons, an increase of 5,849 tons [2]. Industry News - In July 2025, China's household air - conditioner production was 16.115 million units, a month - on - month decline of 14.20%; the cumulative production was 136.434 million units, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.34%. In September 2025, the total production schedule of air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 27.07 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7.28% [2]. - Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will face a temporary decline in production due to the failure of two ball mills within a week [2]. - After the Shanghe Summit and approaching the end of the military parade, downstream enterprises of refined copper rods in North China will gradually resume normal production [2]. Investment Strategy - The restriction on the export of high - quality European scrap copper, the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the negative price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper may lead to a decrease in the import and production of domestic scrap copper in September. The planned maintenance of domestic smelters in September may reduce the production and import of refined copper. New domestic production capacity is expected to be put into operation in the future, which may increase the production of electrolytic copper in September. The import window for electrolytic copper is opening, which may increase the import volume and inventory [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is almost certain, and the transition from the traditional consumption off - season to the peak season supports copper prices. With the expectation of the domestic traditional consumption off - season turning to the peak season and the Fed's September rate - cut expectation, the price of Shanghai copper may be cautiously bullish. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously and mainly lay out long positions when the price drops. Pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper [1][3]. - The basis of Shanghai copper is positive and within a reasonable range, and the monthly spreads are all positive and within a reasonable range. Due to the Fed's September rate - cut expectation, the increase in the domestic electrolytic copper maintenance capacity in September, and the expectation of the traditional consumption off - season turning to the peak season, but the continuous accumulation of the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, it is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for the arbitrage opportunities of the basis and monthly spreads of Shanghai copper [7]. - The spreads of LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts are negative and at a relatively low level, and the ratio of Shanghai - LME copper price is between the 50 - 75% quantiles of the past five years. Considering factors such as Trump's import tariffs suppressing potential demand, the continuous accumulation of LME and COMEX electrolytic copper inventories, the Fed's September rate - cut expectation, and the continuous tight supply - demand expectation of global copper concentrates, it is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for the arbitrage opportunities of the spreads of LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Aspect - Import tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, leading to an increase in the US PPI annual rate in July and the core CPI annual rate in the consumer sector. Fed Chairman Powell said that the change in the risk balance point may require policy adjustment due to the weak supply and demand in employment, which has increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. However, attention should still be paid to the new non - farm payrolls in the US in August and the consumer price index CPI on September 5th and 11th [2]. Upstream Aspect - **Copper Concentrate**: Newmont's Canadian Red Chris copper mine suspended operations due to a collapse accident, and Russia's Nornickel lowered its copper production forecast for 2025. These factors may lead to a month - on - month increase in the domestic copper concentrate production (import) volume in September. The domestic copper concentrate import index is negative and has decreased compared with last week. The copper concentrate out - port (in - port, inventory) volume of world (Chinese) ports has decreased (increased, increased) compared with last week. The domestic copper concentrate import volume in September may increase month - on - month [2][22][23]. - **Scrap Copper**: The negative spread between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap copper may weaken the economy of scrap copper. The scrap copper import window is gradually opening, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease (increase) in the domestic scrap copper production (import) volume in September, and the supply - demand expectation is tight [2][30]. - **Blister Copper**: The second rotary anode furnace of the pyrometallurgical system of the Yunnan Zhongyou non - ferrous scrap copper resource recycling base produced anode copper in early July, and the No. 1 smelting furnace of Jiangxi Keli Copper Industry's first - phase 150,000 - ton anode plate project was ignited on August 11th. The weekly processing fees for blister copper in northern (southern) China have decreased. The domestic smelters' rough - smelting maintenance capacity in September may increase month - on - month, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease (increase) in the domestic blister copper production (import) volume in September [2][33]. - **Electrolytic Copper**: The domestic electrolytic copper production volume in September may decrease month - on - month. However, due to the expected production of new projects in the future, the import volume of domestic electrolytic copper in September may increase month - on - month [37][40]. Downstream Aspect - **Copper Products Enterprises**: The capacity utilization rate of domestic copper products enterprises in September may increase month - on - month. Specifically, the capacity utilization rate of electrolytic copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper foils, and brass rods may increase month - on - month, while the capacity utilization rate of copper tubes may decrease month - on - month [46][48]. - **Copper Rods**: The capacity utilization rate of refined (recycled) copper rods has decreased compared with last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises has decreased (increased) compared with last week, while the raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises has increased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of refined and recycled copper rod enterprises in September may increase month - on - month [50][52][54]. - **Copper Wires and Cables**: The capacity utilization rate of copper wires and cables has decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of copper wire and cable enterprises has decreased (increased) compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper wires and cables in September may increase month - on - month [62][63][65]. - **Copper Enameled Wires**: The order volume (capacity utilization rate) of copper enameled wires has decreased (decreased) compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper enameled wire enterprises have decreased (increased) compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper enameled wires in September may increase month - on - month [68][69][71]. - **Copper Strips**: The capacity utilization rate (production volume) of copper strips has decreased (decreased) compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper strip enterprises have increased (decreased) compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper strips in September may increase month - on - month [75][77][79]. - **Copper Foils**: The capacity utilization rate of copper foils in September may increase month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of electronic circuit (lithium - ion) copper foils in September may decrease (increase) month - on - month [82][83][84]. - **Copper Tubes**: The capacity utilization rate of copper tubes has decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper tube enterprises have increased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper tubes in September may decrease month - on - month [87][88][89]. - **Brass Rods**: The capacity utilization rate of brass rods has decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of brass rod enterprises have increased (decreased) compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of brass rods in September may increase month - on - month [93][94][95]. Inventory Aspect - The inventory of Shanghai copper has increased, and the inventory of LME copper has also increased. The inventory of COMEX copper has increased, and the ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions has decreased [15][17][19]. - The inventory of copper concentrates in Chinese ports has increased, and the copper concentrate import index is negative and has decreased compared with last week [20][22]. - The inventory of scrap copper in September may decrease, and the supply - demand expectation is tight [30]. - The inventory of blister copper in September may decrease, and the import volume may increase [33]. - The inventory of electrolytic copper in September may increase due to the increase in import volume, although the production volume may decrease [37][40]. Market Structure Aspect - The basis of Shanghai copper is positive, and the monthly spreads are all positive, both within a reasonable range. The spreads of LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts are negative and at a relatively low level. The spreads between COMEX copper, LME copper, and Shanghai copper are all within a reasonable range [7][8][11]. - The closing prices of near - and far - month contracts of Shanghai copper show a Back structure, while those of COMEX copper show a Contango structure [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Fed's September rate - cut expectation is rising, there's an expectation of a shift from the traditional domestic consumption off - season to the peak season, and the global total inventory of electrolytic copper shows an initial decline, which may lead to a relatively strong performance of Shanghai copper prices. It is recommended that investors lightly go long on the main contract on dips, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. Summary by Relevant Data Shanghai Copper Futures Data (2025 - 08 - 28) - Closing price: 78,930, down 260 from the previous day [2] - Trading volume: 73,403 lots, an increase of 15,585 lots from the previous day [2] - Open interest: 168,997 lots, a decrease of 6,000 lots from the previous day [2] - Inventory: 21,232 tons, down 55 tons from the previous day [2] - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price: 79,616, down 355 from the previous day [2] - Shanghai copper basis: 260, down 95 from the previous day [2] Other Price and Spread Data - LME 3 - month copper futures closing price: 9,818, up 62.5 from the previous day [2] - Total registered and cancelled warehouse receipt inventory: 0, a decrease of 157,950 from the previous day [2] - LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread: - 82.79, up 7.14 from the previous day [2] - LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread: - 167.53, up 2.04 from the previous day [2] - Shanghai - London copper price ratio: 8.0393, down 0.08 from the previous day [2] - COMEX 9 copper futures active contract closing price: 4.5445, down 0.0025 from the previous day [2] - Total inventory weight: 275,226 tons, an increase of 3,121 tons from the previous day [2] Industry News - Hudbay Minerals restarted the operation of its Snow Lake mine in Manitoba on August 22 [2] - European high - quality copper exports are restricted, and Sino - US tariff negotiation uncertainty affects scrap copper imports. Domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper price difference is negative, and the scrap copper import window is closed. Some copper smelters are shut down or have production cuts, while some new projects are under construction or planned to be put into production [2] - The weekly processing fee of crude copper in northern (southern) China remains flat (decreases), and the operating rate of domestic scrap - produced anode plate capacity decreases compared with last week. Domestic smelters' crude copper maintenance capacity in August may decrease month - on - month, and the production (import) volume of domestic crude copper in August may increase [2] - Some domestic electrolytic copper production projects are planned to be put into production in the future, and some overseas copper smelters have maintenance or production - cut situations. African agricultural exports delay ship bookings, which may lead to a decrease in domestic electrolytic copper imports in August. The import window opening may increase imports, and the social inventory of domestic electrolytic copper increases [2]

Core Viewpoint - China Nonferrous Mining Co., Ltd. reported a strong financial performance for the first half of 2025, with significant increases in net profit and earnings per share, despite challenges in production volumes and external market conditions [1][6]. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenues of $1.752 billion and a net profit of $371 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.5% [1] - Profit attributable to shareholders was $263 million, up 20.2% from the previous year [1] - Basic earnings per share for shareholders were approximately 6.75 cents, a 17.4% increase from 5.75 cents in 2024 [1] Production Metrics - Total production of crude copper and anode copper was 111,283 tons, a decrease of 30.4% year-on-year [1] - Cathode copper production increased by 15.6% to 72,192 tons [1] - Cobalt hydroxide production was 481 tons, up 1.7% year-on-year [1] - Sulfuric acid production decreased by 1.9% to 538,433 tons [1] - Liquid sulfur dioxide production saw a significant decline of 85.5% to 1,466 tons [1] - The company processed 102,708 tons of copper products for external enterprises, a substantial increase of 152.9% [1] Project Development - Major ongoing projects are progressing well, with geological surveys and engineering investigations completed for key mining operations [2] - The company is on track to complete various construction and environmental assessments for its projects by the end of 2025 [2][3][4][5] - The Luanshya new mine project is a key focus for sustainable development, with significant progress in water drainage and infrastructure work [3] Market Environment and Strategic Initiatives - The company faced challenges from external factors such as fluctuating copper prices due to U.S. tariff policies and instability in the Democratic Republic of Congo [6][7] - Despite these challenges, the company maintained strong operational performance and achieved record economic indicators [7] - The company has strengthened investor relations and announced a strategic acquisition of a stake in the Balkhash copper mine in Kazakhstan, marking a breakthrough in its expansion efforts [7]

Market Review - On Wednesday evening, the Shanghai copper futures contract 2510 fell by 0.63%, closing at 78,850 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - As of August 25, national mainstream copper inventory increased by 0.41 million tons to 127.1 thousand tons [2] - PT Freeport Indonesia announced that the maintenance work at its Gresik copper smelter in East Java is expected to be completed by early September 2025 [2] - On August 27, the surveyed 56 domestic electrolytic copper trading enterprises reported a daily transaction volume of 28.4 thousand tons, a decrease of 0.35 thousand tons from the previous trading day, representing a 10.99% decline [2] Institutional Views - Shenyin Wanguo Futures noted that the supply of copper concentrate remains tight, putting pressure on smelting profits, while smelting output continues to grow significantly. The National Bureau of Statistics indicates positive growth in the power industry, with a sharp increase in photovoltaic installations year-on-year, although future growth may slow. The automotive sector shows positive growth, while home appliance production growth is slowing, and the real estate market remains weak. The interplay of these factors suggests that copper prices may fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [3] - Jianxin Futures stated that the current domestic spot tightness trend remains unchanged, with the opening of the import window attracting LME inventory to shift to the domestic market. LME inventory increased by 1,100 tons to 156,100 tons, with the cumulative increase in August being lower than expected. As the domestic peak season approaches in September, low inventory provides strong support for copper prices. The judgment is that copper prices are likely to rise with difficulty in falling, with the support level raised to 78,500 yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - Tongling Nonferrous Metals announced on August 27 that it is actively progressing with its share repurchase plan in accordance with the disclosed scheme and legal regulations [1] Group 1 - The company is responding to investor inquiries regarding the share repurchase matter [1] - The repurchase work is being conducted strictly according to the previously disclosed plan [1] - The company will fulfill its information disclosure obligations based on the progress of the repurchase [1]

云南铜业 20250826 摘要 云南铜业 2025 年上半年阴极铜产量同比大幅增长 53.22%至 77.94 万 吨，黄金产量同比激增 98.86%至 12.19 吨，白银产量同比上升 98.70%至 276.63 吨，硫酸产量同比增长 20.63%至 28.29 万吨，主 要得益于产供销储运协同机制的完善。 公司上半年营业收入达 889.13 亿元，同比增长 4.27%；利润总额 18.95 亿元，同比增长 2.94%；归母净利润 13.17 亿元，同比增长 24.32%，基本每股收益 0.6,573 元，同比增长 24.32%。净资产收益 率 8.68%，同比上升 1.31 个百分点。 云南铜业通过出售西南铜业部分闲置资产、对外投资设立控股子公司凉 山铜业、发行股份购买凉山矿业股份等举措，优化产业布局，增强整体 竞争力，并已获得深交所受理。 上半年归母净利润增长主要受益于硫酸产销量及价格上涨、资产处置收 益、金属价格上涨及主产品产销量增加，同时通过极致经营降本增效， 抵消了冶炼加工费下降、存货跌价准备增加等减利因素。 Q&A 云南铜业公司 2025 年上半年的主要工作开展情况和经营成果如何？ 2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent market trend in July revolves around the theme of "anti-involution," with the non-ferrous metal sector showing significant gains, particularly in response to government policies aimed at enhancing product quality and phasing out outdated production capacity [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - In July, the non-ferrous index achieved a growth rate of 5.7%, ranking 8th among all industries, with small metals and energy metals performing exceptionally well [2]. - The central government's focus on establishing a unified national market and addressing low-price competition is expected to drive improvements in product quality and industry standards [1][2]. Group 2: Policy Context - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting on July 1, 2025, emphasized the need for regulatory measures to combat disordered competition and promote high-quality development [1][2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a new round of growth stabilization plans for key industries, including non-ferrous metals, on July 18, 2025 [2]. Group 3: Supply-Side Reform Analysis - The analysis of supply-side structural reforms indicates that the non-ferrous index's performance is closely tied to policy announcements, with historical data showing significant correlations between policy implementation and index fluctuations [2][3]. - The current "anti-involution" movement is set against a backdrop of global restructuring, aiming not only for price stabilization but also for sustainable high-quality growth [3][4]. Group 4: Comparative Insights - Japan's experience with anti-involution reforms in the cement industry serves as a reference, highlighting the importance of industry consolidation and capacity coordination to enhance market efficiency [3][4]. - The anticipated outcomes of the current anti-involution efforts may lead to increased mergers and collaborations within the industry, potentially raising market concentration and fostering high-quality development [4].