| | | 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | | | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 78,100.00 | +560.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9,580.00 | +60.50↑ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 260.00 | -30.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 163,320.00 | -2768.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | 6,810.00 | -4521.00↓ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 170,750.00 | -3575.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 108,142.00 | +27437.00↑ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 66,450.00 | -1100.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 41,218.00 | ...

Summary of Copper and Recycled Copper Market Analysis Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the copper and recycled copper market, highlighting supply and demand dynamics, production trends, and pricing factors for 2025 [1][3][40]. Key Points Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper mine supply growth is projected to be only 1%-2% in 2025, while domestic smelters are expected to add over 1 million tons of new production capacity, leading to a tight supply situation amid increasing demand [1][3]. - In the first four months of 2025, electrolytic copper production increased by approximately 400,000 tons year-on-year, primarily due to the significant contribution of recycled copper anode plates [1][6]. - Domestic recycled copper supply increased by 87,000 tons year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, driven by rising copper prices and policies promoting the replacement of old equipment [1][11]. Production and Profitability - The average processing profit for copper processing and recycled copper industries remains high, encouraging companies to maximize production capacity, particularly for anode plates, which are expected to reach 1.85 to 1.90 million tons in 2024 [1][8][9]. - Current smelting operations are facing challenges, with zero single transactions generally resulting in losses of around 1,500 yuan, reflecting the tough market environment [1][7]. - The processing profit for recycled copper anode plates is notably high, with profits reaching 500 to 600 yuan per ton, driving increased production [5][8]. Regional Development - Key regions for the development of the recycled copper industry include Jiangxi, Anhui, Hubei, and Sichuan, benefiting from tax incentives and attracting significant investment [1][10]. Market Influences - The growth in electric grid investment is expected to boost demand for wires and cables, with a positive outlook for the real estate market in 2025, indicating a narrowing year-on-year decline [2][17]. - The impact of U.S.-China trade tensions has led to fluctuations in the supply of recycled metals, with April 2025 seeing a decrease in supply due to tariffs [14][24]. Price Trends - Copper prices are expected to remain optimistic in 2025, with a support level likely above 70,000 yuan, despite potential volatility due to macroeconomic factors [25][41]. - The price sensitivity of downstream demand is significant, with order volumes increasing when prices drop to around 75,000 yuan [30][31]. Future Outlook - The overall outlook for the recycled copper supply is positive, with expectations of an increase in both imported and domestic supply, driven by policy changes and the aging of equipment [22][35]. - The anticipated stability in the waste copper market suggests that while the second quarter may not show significant growth, the overall demand for copper is expected to rise in the latter half of 2025 [24][40]. Additional Insights - The relationship between electrolytic copper production and recycled copper anode plates is crucial, as the latter helps to fill the production gap caused by slow growth in copper mines [28]. - The competition for waste copper between smelting and processing plants is influenced by market prices, affecting production decisions and supply flows [29]. This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed overview of the current state and future prospects of the copper and recycled copper markets, highlighting key trends, challenges, and opportunities for stakeholders in the industry.

Group 1: Investment Projects and Production Capacity - The company is processing 150,000 tons of copper concentrate, with a target of optimizing to 80,000 tons, and has achieved production standards for the comprehensive recovery project, excluding precious metals [2] - The high-performance rolled copper strip and rolled copper-clad laminate projects are in trial production, with production capacity not fully released due to market development [2] - The copper mine tailings project has been completed and is in use, contributing positively to financial indicators as production processes improve [2] Group 2: Rare Metals and Product Diversification - The company’s smelting recovery products include valuable metals such as gold, silver, selenium, tellurium, platinum, palladium, and rhenium [3] - There is an ongoing effort to explore and develop new mining sources to enhance mineral reserves and production capacity [5] Group 3: Shareholder and Market Management - The profit distribution plan for 2024 will be implemented within two months after approval by the shareholders' meeting, with the cash dividend record date yet to be determined [3] - The company emphasizes value management and plans to improve its market valuation through compliant practices and effective management strategies [4] Group 4: Mining Rights and Resource Exploration - The deep mining rights for the copper mine have been completed, and the resource reserve report is currently under review [3] - The company is actively pursuing new breakthroughs in domestic copper resource exploration, aligning with national mining strategies [5] Group 5: Industry Challenges and Strategic Development - The company acknowledges the intense competition and high environmental standards in the copper and gold smelting industry, which have impacted profitability [5] - Plans are in place to accelerate the trial production of differentiated high-end copper products to capture market share and establish core competitiveness [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai Copper main contract fluctuated and declined, with decreasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Internationally, Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts and economic situations. Domestically, the economy showed stable growth in April. Fundamentally, the global supply of copper concentrates remains tight, while domestic copper port inventories are increasing. Supply is growing steadily due to sufficient domestic raw materials and favorable copper prices. Demand is limited as copper prices are high and downstream processing plants are cautious in purchasing. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai Copper may show a slight increase in supply, a slowdown in demand, and a small accumulation of industry inventory. In the options market, the sentiment is bearish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. The technical indicator 60 - minute MACD shows the double - line below the 0 - axis with an expanding green column. The operation suggestion is to go long on dips with a light position and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Copper futures main contract was 77,540 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 9,470 dollars/ton, down 53.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread was 290 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 166,088 lots, down 5,147 lots. The top 20 long positions in Shanghai Copper futures were 11,331 lots, up 1,635 lots. The LME copper inventory was 174,325 tons, down 5,050 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory was 108,142 tons, up 27,437 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrant was 45,738 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price was 78,340 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price was 78,290 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 110 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 95 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 800 yuan/ton, up 510 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was 15.52 dollars/ton, down 15.93 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates in April was 292.44 million tons, up 53.13 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters was - 43.05 dollars/kiloton, up 0.06 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 68,630 yuan/metal ton, up 240 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 69,330 yuan/metal ton, up 240 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the South was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the North, it was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper in April was 125.40 million tons, up 0.60 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 440,000 tons, down 30,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 55,090 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the price of 2 copper in Shanghai was 66,600 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products in April was 208.10 million tons (no comparison data). The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 956.22 billion yuan, up 520.01 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 27,729.57 billion yuan, up 7,825.40 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,167,000,000 pieces, down 30,199,900 pieces [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Copper was 11.02%, down 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 24.24%, down 0.09%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option was 13.76%, down 0.0141%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 0.94, up 0.0220 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In April, China's economy grew steadily. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year, and the social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 5.1%. The national urban surveyed unemployment rate in April was 5.1%, down 0.1 percentage points. The real estate development investment from January to April decreased by 10.3% year - on - year. In April, new home prices in first - and second - tier cities were flat month - on - month, and slightly decreased in third - tier cities. A new round of deposit - rate cuts is about to take place. The EU has lowered its economic growth forecast for Europe. Fed officials have different statements on interest - rate cuts and economic situations. In April 2025, China's alumina exports increased significantly while imports decreased sharply [2]

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 沪铜产业日报 2025/5/15 | | | 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 77,870.00 | -1070.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9,480.00 | -126.50↓ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 370.00 | -110.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 186,574.00 | -7337.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | 10,701.00 | +9143.00↑ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 185,575.00 | -4075.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 80,705.00 | -8602.00↓ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 77,650.00 ...

【5 月 13 日沪铜主力合约市场动态】5 月 13 日，沪铜主力合约开盘价 78080 元/吨，最高 78190 元/ 吨，最低 77620 元/吨，收盘价78090 元/吨，跌幅 0.19%。全天成交量 9.1 万手，减仓 3.4 万手。持仓量 18.2 万手，减仓 0.6 万手。 宏观方面，中美关税问题谈判有进展，市场避险情绪降温。美国银行调研显 示，26%的基金经理认为将硬着陆，低于 4 月的 49%。 供给上，铜精矿供应紧张。虽技术进步和勘探 能力提升，新矿源开发加快，但短期内全球铜精矿供应增量有限，相对铜冶炼产能增长，供应有较大缺 口，冶炼厂竞争加剧，进口矿加工费下行压力大，利润承压。 需求方面，SMM预计 5 月精铜杆企业开 工率环比下滑至 71.01%，下滑 2.83 个百分点，同比上升 8.17 个百分点。5 月漆包线行业开工率预计为 69.81%，环比下降 6.98 个百分点。4 月中国主流光伏组件企业光伏组件产量 55GW，环比上涨 3.38%， 同比持平。4 月光伏组件国内企业产能开工率 56.1%。Mysteel 预计 2025 年 5 月光伏组件排产约 52GW，环比下降 5.45 ...

期货热点追踪 Adani铜冶炼厂投产倒计时！印度"去进口化"豪赌将如何冲击全球铜市？ 相关链接 ...

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In April, the CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month and decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a shift from decline to growth in the month-on-month comparison [1][3] - Food prices rose by 0.2%, while non-food prices increased by 0.1%, with service prices up by 0.3%, driven by seasonal factors and demand recovery [3][4] - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.5% year-on-year, reflecting stable supply-demand dynamics [3][10] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Trends - The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, with the decline attributed to international input factors and seasonal drops in energy prices [1][9] - Certain industrial sectors showed signs of price stabilization, with black metal and non-metal mineral product prices experiencing reduced year-on-year declines [5][6] - The PPI's month-on-month decline was influenced by falling prices in the petroleum and natural gas extraction sectors, as well as in the non-ferrous metal industries [9][10] Group 3: Economic Policies and Market Dynamics - The People's Bank of China noted that policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are beginning to take effect, which is expected to support a moderate recovery in price levels [1][10] - Recent macroeconomic policies, including interest rate cuts and structural tools, are designed to stimulate domestic demand and support price stability [10] - The upcoming holiday seasons are anticipated to boost service prices, contributing to a potential recovery in the core CPI [10]

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month in April, while year-on-year it decreased by 0.1%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 2.7% year-on-year [1][2]. CPI Analysis - The month-on-month CPI change shifted from decline to increase, with a core CPI increase of 0.2% month-on-month and a stable year-on-year increase of 0.5%. This reflects the resilience of the economy [2][4]. - Food prices rose by 0.2%, and service prices increased by 0.3%, driven by seasonal factors and demand recovery during the holiday period [3][4]. PPI Analysis - The PPI's month-on-month decline of 0.4% was consistent with the previous month, influenced by international factors and seasonal declines in energy prices [8][10]. - Certain industrial sectors showed signs of price recovery, with reduced year-on-year declines in sectors such as black metal smelting and non-metallic mineral products [5][6]. Sector Performance - High-tech industries and construction activities contributed to a positive trend in some industrial prices, with specific sectors like wearable smart devices and aircraft manufacturing showing price increases [5][6]. - The international oil price decline negatively impacted domestic oil-related industries, leading to price drops in sectors such as petroleum extraction and refining [10]. Economic Outlook - The People's Bank of China anticipates that policies aimed at expanding domestic demand will support a moderate recovery in price levels [2][11]. - Recent monetary policies, including interest rate cuts and structural tools, are expected to stimulate domestic demand and support price stability [11].

沪铜产业日报 2025/5/6 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建 议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发， 需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 77,600.00 | +380.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9, ...