1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July 2025, the capital market experienced increased volatility but maintained a stable central level. The central bank actively adjusted its open - market operations to maintain market stability. The implementation effect of monetary policy will continue to emerge, and the central bank may maintain a coordinated policy stance during the peak issuance of government bonds. - In August, the overall capital gap pressure is expected to be seasonally large, around 1.8 trillion yuan. However, the capital central level is likely to remain around 1.5%, with a limited risk of significant tightening. The central bank may maintain a coordinated policy stance and there is a relatively higher probability of restarting bond - buying from August to September [4][5][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 7 - Month Capital and Liquidity Review 3.1.1 Capital Review - In July 2025, the overnight capital fluctuation range increased compared to the end of the previous quarter. The overnight capital fluctuated between 1.3 - 1.4% at the beginning of the month and rose to around 1.5% in the middle. The 7D capital price was basically around 1.5% from the beginning to the middle of the month and rose to around 1.6% at the end. The spread between 7D and overnight capital inverted for one day at the end of the month [10]. - The capital operation was affected by fiscal expenditures, reverse - repurchase operations, and MLF. The capital center decreased overall, with DR001 centered around 1.4% and DR007 fluctuating around 1.5% [11]. - The capital stratification pressure increased briefly in July, with spreads at a seasonal low. The capital volatility of overnight increased, and the 7D capital volatility changed seasonally. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased slightly compared to June [16][22][23]. 3.1.2 Liquidity Review - In terms of liquidity volume, the base currency in July may have decreased by 6019 billion yuan. The end - of - month excess reserves may have decreased by 5161 billion yuan, with an excess reserve ratio of about 1.55%. The narrow - sense excess reserve level after deducting reverse - repurchase is about 0.7%, still at a low level [31]. - In open - market operations, the central bank actively increased reverse - repurchase investments in July, with a net investment of 1880 billion yuan. MLF invested 4000 billion yuan and matured 3000 billion yuan. The net investment of outright reverse - repurchase was 2000 billion yuan, and a 1000 - billion - yuan treasury deposit operation was carried out [33][37][40]. 3.2 7 - Month Monetary Policy Tracking - In the middle of July, the central bank leader stated that the effect of the implemented monetary policy would continue to emerge, and it was reasonable for small and medium - sized banks to increase bond holdings. The regulatory attitude was more moderate than expected. - In the middle and late July, the central bank solicited opinions on "canceling the freezing of collateral for bond repurchase", which may improve collateral utilization efficiency in the long run. - At the end of July, the Political Bureau meeting emphasized implementing a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and fully releasing policy effects. The probability of a short - term interest rate cut is low, and the central bank may maintain a coordinated policy stance during the peak issuance of government bonds [3][48][52]. 3.3 8 - Month Gap Prediction 3.3.1 Rigid Gap - In August, the growth of general deposits may freeze about 902 billion yuan in reserves. The MLF maturity is 3000 billion yuan, and the outright reverse - repurchase maturity is 0.9 trillion yuan (4000 billion yuan for 3M and 5000 billion yuan for 6M) [4][57]. 3.3.2 Exogenous Shocks - Cash withdrawals and non - financial institution deposits may slightly freeze excess reserves. Cash withdrawals may consume about 577 billion yuan in excess reserves, and non - financial institution deposits may consume about 723 billion yuan [61]. 3.3.3 Fiscal Factors - The government bond issuance in August is expected to be around 1.5 trillion yuan. Considering factors such as payment reflux, taxation, and fiscal expenditures, government deposits may freeze about 2000 billion yuan in liquidity [64]. 3.3.4 Comprehensive Judgment - The overall capital gap in August is estimated to be around 1.8 trillion yuan, with a seasonally large pressure. However, the capital central level is likely to remain around 1.5%, with a limited risk of significant tightening. The central bank may continue the idea of over - repurchase and pay attention to the bank's liability situation and the possibility of the central bank restarting bond - buying from August to September [4][5][69].

依据《中华人民共和国证券投资基金法》、《公开募集证券投资基金运作管理办法》、《国联安中证新 材料主题交易型开放式指数证券投资基金基金合同》（以下简称"《基金合同》"）的有关规定，现将国 联安基金管理有限公司（以下简称"基金管理人"或"本基金管理人"）旗下国联安中证新材料主题交易型 开放式指数证券投资基金（以下简称"本基金"）基金份额持有人大会的决议及相关事项公告如下： 一、本次基金份额持有人大会会议情况 本基金以通讯方式召开了基金份额持有人大会，会议审议了《关于国联安中证新材料主题交易型开放式 指数证券投资基金终止基金合同并终止上市有关事项的议案》（以下简称"本次会议议案"），并由参加 大会的基金份额持有人及其代理人对本次会议议案进行表决。大会表决投票时间从2025年7月4日起，至 2025年8月4日17:00止（投票表决时间以本基金管理人收到表决票时间为准）。 经统计，基金份额持有人及其代理人所代表的20,378,261.00份有效基金份额参加了本次基金份额持有人 大会，占权益登记日（权益登记日为2025年7月4日）基金总份额39,146,061.00份的52.06%，符合《中华 人民共和国证券投资基金法》 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Interbank Market Dealers Association has issued a notice to regulate the bond issuance and underwriting process, addressing issues such as distorted pricing and non-market-based issuance practices [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - The notice emphasizes that lead underwriters must establish internal management systems for underwriting quotes, ensuring that they do not participate in bidding with quotes below cost [1][2]. - The association has initiated self-discipline investigations into six institutions, including China Galaxy Securities and GF Securities, due to abnormal pricing in a bond project, highlighting the need to maintain fair competition in the bond market [2]. Group 2: Market Trends - The ongoing regulatory efforts to curb irrational low-price competition in the bond underwriting market align with the broader trend of "anti-involution" in the financial industry, aiming to guide the market towards rational and sustainable development [3]. - Major banks, including ICBC and GF Bank, have publicly committed to resisting "involution" competition and adhering to long-term operational principles, reflecting a shift in industry focus towards stability and risk management [3].

业内人士建议，理财公司可通过久期、杠杆策略增厚收益 普益标准研究员张璟晗表示，从宏观经济、政策调控等多角度看，债市仍具备一定配置价值。市场中部 分理财公司同样认为当前债市调整带来了一定投资机会，并加仓优质城投债、产业债等。机构间的博弈 与交易行为，在一定程度上维持了市场的流动性和稳定性。 目前，债券类资产的投资收益主要来自两部分：资本利得与票息收益。债券资产的票息收益每日累积， 并持续计入产品净值，这为产品净值的修复提供了支撑。 "债券的票息特性决定了债市是天然的多头市场。"前述银行理财子公司人士表示，从长期表现来看，我 国债券市场总体呈现"牛长熊短"的格局，在过去的多轮调整中，债券市场均能快速完成修复。理财是与 时间为友的过程，长期持有可以减少非理性决策的成本，并享受债市修复后的收益机会。 站在当前时点，银行理财子公司该如何调整理财产品资产端配置策略？ 农银理财方面表示，面对本轮债市调整，将通过调降产品久期和杠杆、增加同业存单等流动性仓位配置 等防守策略进行积极应对。下一步，将在保持产品流动性的基础上，规避投资波动较大的券种，控制净 值回撤，并积极关注市场调整后带来的交易及配置机会，力争提升产品业绩表现。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and several government departments have issued guidelines to enhance financial support for new-type industrialization, focusing on the integration of finance and manufacturing to foster technological innovation and sustainable development [1][2]. Financial Support for Industrialization - The guidelines emphasize the importance of financial services for the real economy and risk prevention, aiming to deepen financial supply-side structural reforms and enhance the synergy between industrial and financial policies [1][4]. - By 2027, a mature financial system supporting the high-end, intelligent, and green development of manufacturing is expected, with increased access to various financial instruments for manufacturing enterprises [1][2]. Enhancing Technological Innovation and Supply Chain Resilience - Financial policies will be optimized to support key technologies and products, particularly in critical sectors such as integrated circuits and medical equipment, through long-term financing [2][3]. - The guidelines encourage collaboration between financial institutions and technology service providers to facilitate diverse financing models and accelerate the transformation of technological achievements [2]. Modern Industrial System Construction - The guidelines outline five key areas for building a modern industrial system, including optimizing financial services for traditional manufacturing, enhancing the quality of technology finance, promoting green finance, and deepening financial services for industrial chains [2][3]. Industry Integration and Upgrading - Support for listed companies to engage in industry consolidation and upgrading through various financial mechanisms is highlighted, along with the need for diversified technology finance service models [3][4]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to utilize advanced technologies like big data and AI to improve service efficiency for manufacturing, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises [3][4]. Regional and Cross-Border Financial Services - The guidelines stress the importance of flexible financial services to support industrial transfer and regional optimization, particularly in less developed areas [3][4]. - Enhancements in cross-border financial services are also emphasized to expand high-level open development spaces for manufacturing [3]. Capacity Building for Financial Support - Financial institutions are urged to integrate support for new-type industrialization into their long-term strategies and improve the coordination of various financial tools [4]. - The guidelines call for the cultivation of a talent pool with expertise in advanced manufacturing and related technologies to strengthen financial management and services [4]. Implementation and Collaboration - The People's Bank of China and relevant departments will work together to ensure the implementation of these guidelines, aiming to provide robust financial support for advancing new-type industrialization [5].

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between U.S. interest rate changes and foreign capital flows into China has become increasingly evident, suggesting a direct correlation between the two [1][3][6]. Group 1: U.S. Interest Rate Changes - The Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in March 2022, with a significant increase from 0.25% to 4% by November 2022, which coincided with a decline in foreign capital inflows to China [3][5]. - In 2023, foreign capital inflows to China saw a year-on-year decrease for the first time in years, aligning with the Fed's rate hike to 5% in March [5][10]. - By September 2024, when the Fed indicated a potential rate cut, foreign capital inflows to China surged, demonstrating a strong market reaction to U.S. monetary policy [7][10]. Group 2: Capital Flow Dynamics - Foreign capital is primarily driven by where it can achieve better returns, rather than local conditions such as pandemic lockdowns [5][10]. - The Chinese stock market and real estate are currently perceived as attractive investment opportunities due to their low positions, especially if the Fed enters a prolonged rate-cutting phase [10][18]. - The potential for capital outflow from the U.S. to China is significant if the market believes in sustained lower interest rates from the Fed [18][20]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales growth, adjusted for inflation, is nearly stagnant, indicating a weakening domestic economy [11][13]. - The Fed faces a dilemma: lowering rates could reignite inflation, while maintaining rates could exacerbate domestic economic issues [11][13][16]. - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are declining, suggesting market expectations of an end to the Fed's tightening cycle, which could further influence capital flows [16][18].

Core Insights - The personal pension FOF products have shown a return rate exceeding 8%, outperforming fixed deposit rates, indicating a positive trend in the personal pension market [1] - The number of available personal pension products has reached 1,099, with 303 fund products, reflecting a growing market [2] - The average annualized return for personal pension wealth management products has surpassed 3.4%, with total earnings exceeding 390 million yuan [2][3] Product Performance - Among personal pension fund products, 20 have achieved returns over 10%, with the "Zhongou Pre-emptive Active Pension Target Five-Year Holding Mixed Initiation (FOF) Y" showing a remarkable increase of 21.36% [2] - The median return rate for personal pension fund products since inception is 4.97%, with a median return of 4.81% for the current year [2] Market Growth - The balance of personal pension wealth management products reached over 15.16 billion yuan, marking a 64.7% increase since the beginning of the year [3] - The number of investors opening personal pension wealth management accounts has grown by 46.2% in the first half of the year, reaching over 1.439 million [4] Investment Value - Personal pension wealth management products are characterized by stable investment strategies, long investment cycles, and effective policy support, making them attractive for long-term investment [5] - The implementation of the personal pension system nationwide has led to a rapid increase in the scale of personal pension wealth management products [4][6] Challenges and Recommendations - Financial institutions face challenges such as limited product variety and insufficient lock-in periods, which need to be addressed to meet diverse investor needs [6] - Investors are advised to diversify their asset allocation based on risk tolerance and retirement goals, focusing on products with stable historical performance and controlled drawdowns [6]

香港万得通讯社报道，近日，中国人民银行、工业和信息化部、国家发展改革委、财政部、金融监 管总局、中国证监会、国家外汇局联合印发《关于金融支持新型工业化的指导意见》（以下简称 《意见》）。 《意见》坚持把金融服务实体经济作为根本宗旨和防范化解金融风险的根本举措，聚焦新型工业化重大 战略任务，以需求牵引深化金融供给侧结构性改革，强化产业政策和金融政策协同，为推进新型工业 化、加快发展新质生产力提供高质量金融服务，坚持分类施策、有扶有控，推动产业加快迈向中高端， 防止"内卷式"竞争。 到 2027 年，支持制造业高端化智能化绿色化发展的金融体系基本成熟，服务适配 性有效增强 。 《意见》对照新型工业化重点领域，提出针对性支持举措。优化金融政策工具支持关键技术产品和攻 关，多渠道为科技成果转化引入耐心资本，强化产业链重点企业综合金融服务，提升产业科技创新能力 和产业链供应链韧性。发展科技金融、绿色金融、数字金融等五篇大文章，深化基于"数据信用"和"物 的信用"的产业链金融服务模式，支持传统产业转型升级和培育壮大新兴产业。健全中西部承接产业转 移有关授信管理机制和金融产品服务，推动金融资源向产业集群聚集和专业化发展，推 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a new policy to reinstate value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting August 8, 2025, while maintaining tax exemptions for existing bonds until maturity [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Background and Adjustment Motives - The tax exemption policy for bond interest income began in 2016 to enhance the attractiveness of government bonds and promote institutional investor growth [2]. - The recent policy adjustment is motivated by the need to optimize the tax system in light of the significant growth of China's bond market, which is now the second largest globally [2][3]. - The new policy is expected to generate approximately 5 billion yuan in additional tax revenue in 2025 and an average of 24 billion yuan annually thereafter, aiding in fiscal sustainability [3]. Group 2: Specific Changes in Tax Policy and Institutional Differences - The new VAT policy will impose a 6% standard tax rate on banks, insurance companies, and securities firms, while public funds and other asset management products will face a 3% simplified tax rate [4]. - The effective tax rate for banks holding newly issued bonds will rise from 0% to approximately 6.34%, leading to a decrease in after-tax yields [4][5]. - Public funds retain significant tax advantages, including exemptions from capital gains tax and corporate income tax, which may further widen the tax gap compared to self-managed institutions [4]. Group 3: Impact on Bond Types and Market Structure - The reinstatement of VAT will lead to a revaluation of different bond types, creating a tax spread between new and existing bonds [8]. - The market may split into "old bond" and "new bond" segments, with existing bonds benefiting from tax exemptions, potentially reducing their liquidity in the secondary market [9]. - The relative attractiveness of credit bonds is expected to increase as their tax treatment remains unchanged, potentially compressing credit spreads [12]. Group 4: Impact on Long and Short-Term Government Bond Yield Curves - Long-term bonds, particularly 30-year government bonds, will experience a more significant tax impact, leading to increased yield pressures [13]. - The issuance of long-term special government bonds in August may further influence the demand for tax-exempt old bonds, affecting the yield curve [13]. Group 5: Impact on Bank Investment Behavior - The new VAT policy is likely to increase pressure on bank returns, prompting a shift towards trading activities and a reduction in the proportion of bonds held to maturity [14]. - Banks may prioritize holding tax-exempt old bonds as strategic assets, leading to a potential increase in demand for these securities [15]. - The adjustment in tax policy may drive banks to optimize their tax burdens by investing in public bond funds, significantly reducing their effective tax rates [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant turmoil in global financial markets, driven by political statements, Federal Reserve dynamics, and economic data, indicating a potential shift away from the dollar's dominance and the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve in managing interest rates and inflation. Group 1: Federal Reserve Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is facing a critical moment with a 96.9% probability of maintaining interest rates in July and a 62.6% expectation of a rate cut in September [1] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have intensified, with members split into three camps regarding interest rate policy, reflecting differing views on inflation and economic conditions [4] - The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged with a 9:2 vote, marking the first time in over 30 years that two members opposed the mainstream decision [7] Group 2: Market Reactions - Trump's call for an immediate 300 basis point rate cut led to panic in the markets, with gold prices surging by $20 and the dollar index dropping by 25 points [3] - Following Trump's retraction of his dismissal threat against Powell, market volatility persisted, indicating a fragile confidence in the Federal Reserve's independence [3] - The bond market reacted sharply, with the 30-year Treasury yield surpassing 5%, signaling the onset of a "long-term high interest rate era" [6] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q2 was reported at 3.0%, exceeding expectations, but analysts pointed out that the actual growth rate, after adjusting for imports and inventory changes, was only 1.14% [8] - Inflation remains a concern, with the core CPI rising 2.9% year-on-year, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, driven in part by tariffs [4] Group 4: Commodity Market Movements - Gold futures prices reached a historic peak of $3444 per ounce, while silver prices also surged, reflecting heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid market uncertainty [7] - Contrastingly, the Chinese gold market experienced a decline, with significant drops in retail gold prices, indicating divergent market behaviors between East and West [7]