谁都没料到，2026年初中日博弈会来得这么猛！这次中国不再是口头警告，而是直接动了真格。6日商务部一纸公告，把对日本的两用物项出口管制拉满， 稀土这张王牌应声落地。才过4天，日本企业就收到中国国企的正式通知：新的稀土销售协议全停了！ 这消息一出来，日本整个乱了套。之前他们还自我麻痹，觉得中国不会真断稀土，毕竟稀土是日本制造业的命门，新能源汽车电机、半导体、甚至导弹制导 系统都离不开，而且日本对中国稀土的依赖度高得吓人，尤其是镝、铽这些重稀土，几乎100%靠进口，中国还垄断了90%的稀土冶炼技术，就算从非洲找 矿，最后还得送中国加工。 更讽刺的是，高市早苗这时候提大选，连日本内部都质疑不断。政府高官直言，现在物价问题还没解决，搁置民生搞大选，就是"为了个人利益解散国会"； 在野党更是放话，要在国会追究她的责任。就算她侥幸赢了，只要日本不放弃对华强硬路线，中国的反制就不会停，到时候日本经济只会陷得更深。 野村研究所算过一笔账，要是稀土断供一年，日本经济得损失2.6万亿日元，折合人民币1160多亿；大和研究所更悲观，说长期断供可能让日本GDP跌 3.2%，90多万人失业，汽车行业产出能掉17.6%。1月6日公告刚发 ...

Core Viewpoint - Amazon is focusing on a copper mine in Arizona to meet the growing demand for copper in its data centers, marking the first new copper resource in the U.S. in over a decade [2][3] Group 1: Amazon's Strategy - Amazon's move is part of a broader trend among tech companies to secure essential materials for AI data center construction and operation [3] - The copper produced from the Nuton project will only satisfy a small fraction of Amazon's overall copper needs [3] Group 2: Rio Tinto's Nuton Project - Rio Tinto has signed a two-year supply agreement with Amazon Web Services, showcasing confidence in its Nuton project, which uses bacteria and acid to extract copper from previously discarded low-grade ores [2][9] - The Nuton project is expected to produce 14,000 tons of cathode copper within four years, which is insufficient for the construction of a large data center [5] Group 3: Copper Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for copper is increasing due to the construction of data centers, grid upgrades, electric vehicles, and renewable energy facilities, outpacing declines in traditional manufacturing and construction sectors [5] - Recent copper prices in London and New York have reached historical highs, with New York copper futures rising 41% last year and surpassing $6 per pound recently [5] Group 4: Future Projections and Risks - A report from S&P Global predicts that AI will drive copper demand up by 50% by 2040, while copper mine production is expected to decline, leading to a 25% supply-demand gap [6] - The average time for a new copper mine to go from exploration to production is over 20 years, raising concerns about potential copper shortages impacting the AI industry's growth [6] Group 5: Environmental Considerations - Rio Tinto's Nuton technology aims to exploit low-grade ores that were previously deemed unprofitable, offering a low-carbon and low-water solution for copper extraction [8] - Amazon is actively seeking low-carbon solutions for its commodity needs, including copper, to support its business growth and reduce carbon emissions [8]

Group 1 - The core reason for the recent surge in copper prices is a structural supply constraint, which has diminished the explanatory power of traditional economic indicators [3][8] - Key copper mines are facing operational setbacks due to natural disasters and safety incidents, leading to significant production downgrades [9] - The mining of copper is becoming increasingly difficult and costly due to declining ore grades and environmental concerns, making new project developments more politically challenging [11] - The discovery of new large copper mines is slowing down, with only 14 out of 239 major deposits discovered in the last decade [13] - U.S. tariff policies have disrupted the market, leading to a significant increase in copper inventories as companies rush to import refined copper [14][16] Group 2 - Copper is widely used in various industries, and its price increase indicates strong industrial demand and economic acceleration [19] - The demand for copper is being driven by the construction of AI infrastructure and energy transition, with projections indicating a significant increase in demand [20] - AI data centers and the associated energy needs are contributing over 60% of the new copper demand [21] - The energy transition could triple the demand for copper by 2045, with a potential structural deficit emerging as early as 2026 [23][26] Group 3 - The majority of copper mining resources are concentrated in South America and Africa, while smelting capacity is primarily located in Asia, especially China [28] - Three countries—Chile, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Peru—account for nearly 50% of global copper mining [29] - China has become the largest producer and consumer of copper products, with significant production capacities in refined copper and copper processing materials [33]

因此，白银已经连续四年出现供应短缺，累计缺口达两万吨。这也导致白银库存持续去化。未来几年， 这一产业层面的供需偏紧格局恐怕难以改变。 实际上，自2021年以来，伦敦白银市场的库存已经大幅下降三分之一。目前可自由流通的白银仅剩约2 亿盎司，相比2019年的高点萎缩了75%，应对实物挤兑的能力被大幅削弱。要知道，每日白银市场的交 易量就高达2.5亿盎司。 今日周五(1月16日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于22420一线上方，今日开盘于22980元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报22628元/千克，下跌0.63%，最高触及23123元/千克，最低下探22007元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 在供给端，白银与铜等大宗金属一样，近年来受到制约。主要原因是全球主流矿业企业资本开支低迷， 优质矿山日益减少，矿石品位下降，开采成本上升，供给增长跟不上需求步伐。 另外，蒙特利尔银行表示，投资者需要关注太阳能领域的白银消费。"自2020年以来，太阳能领域贡献 了白银消费增量的58%；然而，由于太阳能安装量趋于平缓以及太阳能技术中持续进行的白银节约化设 计，来自太阳能领域的白银需求可能已经见顶， ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.27%, down 71 points, closing at 26,851 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.22% [1] - MiniMax (00100) surged over 12%, leading the large model sector, while Zhiyuan (02513) rose over 2% after launching a new image generation model in collaboration with Huawei [1] Group 2 - Jiaxin International Resources (03858) increased by over 3%, approaching a market capitalization of 35 billion HKD, as black tungsten concentrate prices surpassed 500,000 HKD [2] - Jiangxi Copper (600362) (00358) also rose over 3% after its subsidiary signed an investment option agreement with First Quantum in Kazakhstan [2] - Robotics stocks saw a broad increase, with Chinese manufacturers leading the global humanoid robot market, including significant gains for companies like Extreme Intelligence (02590) and Cloudwalk (02670) [2] Group 3 - Tianyue Advanced (02631) rose over 15% following TSMC's better-than-expected earnings and positive guidance, as the company expands its silicon carbide applications [3] Group 4 - Weichai Power (000338) (02338) increased by over 4.5%, nearing previous highs, as the company accelerates its SOFC capacity expansion to meet customer demand [4] Group 5 - Innovation Industry (02788) rose nearly 8%, with institutions optimistic about the profitability of the electrolytic aluminum sector in the first half of 2026 [5] - Power equipment stocks saw gains, with Dongfang Electric (600875) (01072) rising over 4% following a 4 trillion HKD plan disclosed by the State Grid [5] Group 6 - Kangnait Optical (02276) increased by over 8%, as institutions believe Meta's increased investment in smart glasses will accelerate industry development [6] Group 7 - Cao Cao Travel (02643) rose nearly 8% after acquiring Yao Travel and Geely Business Travel, expanding into the B2B travel sector [7]

Group 1: Industry Developments - Meituan has entered the automotive sales sector, signing a strategic cooperation agreement with Shanghai Xiche Future Intelligent Technology Co., aiming to create a one-stop service platform for car buying and local life services [2] - TSMC forecasts its revenue for Q1 2026 to be between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, with a midpoint estimate of $35.2 billion, representing a quarter-over-quarter increase of approximately 4.4% [4] - Luoyang Molybdenum Co. expects a net profit of 20 billion to 20.8 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 48% to 54% due to rising product prices and effective cost control [5] Group 2: Financing Activities - Robot leasing platform "Qingtian Rental" has completed a seed round of financing led by Hillhouse Capital, with participation from several other investors, aimed at expanding its market presence and enhancing its technology and service systems [6][7] - AI-native growth intelligence company Noumena has announced the completion of a multi-million yuan Pre-A round of financing, focusing on developing AI agents for marketing decision-making and execution [8] Group 3: Product Launches - Xiaomi has introduced a 7-year low-interest car purchase policy for its first pure electric SUV, the Xiaomi YU7, with a starting down payment of 49,900 yuan and monthly payments as low as 2,593 yuan [4] - The iQOO Z11 Turbo has been launched, featuring a Snapdragon 8 flagship chip, a 200-megapixel main camera, and a 7,600mAh battery, with a starting price of 2,399 yuan [9]

江西铜业股份(00358)涨超3%，子公司与第一量子哈萨克签署《投资选择权契约》， 合作勘探矿业项 目。 机器人概念股早盘普涨。中国厂商领跑全球人形机器人市场，产业发展持续加速。极智嘉-W(02590)涨 6.3%；云迹(02670)涨5.5%；蓝思科技(06613)涨4.68%。 智通财经APP获悉，港股恒生指数跌0.27%，跌71点，报26851点；恒生科技指数跌0.22%。港股早盘成 交1408亿港元。 八部门力挺AI+制造，MiniMax（00100）涨超12%领涨大模型；智谱（02513）涨超2%，智谱联合华为 开源的新一代图像生成模型GLM-Image，在模型开源不到24小时即登上全球知名AI开源社区Hugging Face（抱抱脸）榜单的全球第一。 佳鑫国际资源(03858)再涨超3%，总市值逼近350亿港元，黑钨精矿价格突破50万元大关。 康耐特光学(02276)涨超8%，机构称Meta加大智能眼镜业务投入有望引领产业加速发展。 曹操出行(02643)再涨近8%，公司收购耀出行和吉利商旅，拓展B端商旅出行赛道。 禾赛-W(02525)涨超6%，激光雷达渗透率有望持续提升，公司今年规划年产能翻番 ...

中辉有色观点 | | 11 | | A 100 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I | | | 74 C | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 关税未裁决，美联储降息概率反复，地缘问题一波三折，地缘溢价交易继续，流动 | | | 长线持有 | 性风险偏好尚可。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄 | | ★★ | | 金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 白银未被征收关税市场情绪有所舒缓，但同时避险交易、交割逼仓、资源品交易预 | | ★★ | 长期持有 | 期持续。短期注意节奏控制。长期降息、供需缺口连续 5 年，全球大财政均对白银 | | | | 长期有利，长期滚动做多逻辑不变。 特朗普暂缓重要矿产关税，英伟达数据中心铜需求大幅缩水，美国持续虹吸全球铜 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 资源，短期铜高位震荡，建议多单持有，移动止盈落袋，新入场等待充分回调，中 | | ★ | | 长期对铜依旧看好。 | | | | LME 拒绝韩国锌业锌锭注册仓单，受事件型冲击影响，锌迅速拉涨，隔夜高位 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken, with a significant increase in inventory, weak and stable steel mill production, and a decline in terminal ore consumption. This week, the average daily hot - metal output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased slightly month - on - month, and the improvement in steel mill profitability is limited. Coupled with the accumulation of contradictions in the steel market during the off - season, ore demand will remain weak, although steel mills will replenish stocks before the festival. Meanwhile, port arrivals continue to increase, while miner shipments decline slightly. Both are at relatively high levels, overseas ore supply is relatively active, and domestic ore supply has recovered, so ore supply remains high. With a warm commodity sentiment and lingering positive factors, the ore price is operating in a high - level range. However, due to the high supply and weak and stable demand, the fundamentals are weak and the upward driving force is not strong. The ore price shows a high - level oscillation pattern under the game of multiple and short factors. Be cautious of the trading logic switching to the industrial end, when the ore price is likely to be under pressure again. Pay attention to the stock - replenishing situation of steel mills [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 16,555.10, with a week - on - week increase of 279.84, a month - to - date increase of 584.21, and a year - on - year increase of 1,692.04 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar. The 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 9,262.22, with a week - on - week increase of 272.63, a month - to - date increase of 315.68, and a year - on - year decrease of 381.90 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar [1] Supply - The arrival volume of iron ore at 45 domestic ports is 2,920.40, with a week - on - week increase of 164.00, a month - to - date increase of 319.00, and a year - on - year increase of 781.90 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar. The global iron ore shipment volume is 3,180.90, with a week - on - week decrease of 32.80, a month - to - date decrease of 496.22, and a year - on - year increase of 189.30 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar [1] Demand - The average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is 228.01, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.49, a month - to - date increase of 0.58, and a year - on - year increase of 0.14 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar. The 45 - port average daily ore removal volume is 319.89, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.38, a month - to - date decrease of 5.32, and a year - on - year decrease of 4.32 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar. The 247 steel mills' imported ore daily consumption is 281.84, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.44, a month - to - date increase of 1.17, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.74 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar. The weekly average of iron ore transactions at major ports is 95.13, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.21, a month - to - date increase of 14.45, and a year - on - year decrease of 5.09 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar [1]

Core Viewpoint - China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) Mining's stock price increased by 4.40%, currently trading at HKD 3.80, with a transaction volume of HKD 112 million [5]. Group 1: Company Performance - In 2025, CGN's 49%-owned Xie Company produced 862.2 tons of natural uranium, while another 49%-owned Ao Company produced 1,836.8 tons, achieving completion rates of 100.1% and 102.0% respectively [5]. - In the fourth quarter of 2025, CGN's invested mines produced a total of 702.5 tons of natural uranium, with a quarterly completion rate of 94.6%. Xie Company produced 249.2 tons, and Ao Company produced 453.3 tons [5]. Group 2: Industry Insights - According to Guojin Securities, the primary supply of uranium is expected to recover in the short term due to the resumption of mining operations, but the long-term supply capacity is facing continuous decline. Secondary supply is unlikely to generate effective increments in the short term [5]. - On the demand side, nuclear power installations are steadily increasing due to energy security, the transition to clean energy, and AI-driven electricity demand, leading to a persistent global supply-demand gap for natural uranium. Expectations of tight supply are driving up long-term contract prices for uranium [5].