Core Viewpoint - The domestic lithium carbonate market is experiencing a rapid price increase due to rising costs, demand pull, and emotional factors, with futures prices approaching 95,000 [1] Group 1: Market Demand and Supply - In October, domestic lithium carbonate demand reached 120,000 tons, an 8% month-on-month increase, while inventory dropped below 120,000 tons, reducing available days from over 50 to less than 30 [2] - The lithium battery industry is projected to require 1.8 million tons of lithium resources (LCE equivalent) by 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 27% [3] Group 2: Price Trends and Market Sentiment - Major domestic lithium salt companies indicated that if lithium carbonate demand grows by 30% in 2026, prices could potentially exceed 150,000, which is a significant driver of current market sentiment [5] - Recent trends show a slight decrease in lithium carbonate warehouse receipts, while the ratio of virtual to actual transactions is steadily increasing, indicating potential delivery pressure in the future [6]

行 业 研 究 / 电 力 设 备 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 电力设备行业年度投资策略 新能源底部反转，机器人创新破局 2025 年 11 月 18 日 【投资要点】 挖掘价值 投资成长 强于大市（维持） 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：周旭辉 证书编号：S1160521050001 证券分析师：李京波 证书编号：S1160522120001 证券分析师：杨安东 证书编号：S1160524070005 证券分析师：朱晋潇 证书编号：S1160522070001 证券分析师：安邦 证书编号：S1160525010002 证券分析师：唐硕 证书编号：S1160524090002 证券分析师：郭娜 证书编号：S1160524070001 相对指数表现 -20% -6% 8% 22% 36% 50% 2024/11 2025/5 2025/11 电力设备 沪深300 相关研究 《液冷：为何加速渗透？行业增速几何？ 新技术和受益标的》 2025.08.21 《MIM：轻量化高精密工艺，拓展机器人 应用领域》 2025.07.23 《机器人星辰大海，新能源关注新技术》 2025.06.24 《人形机器人系列专题之电子皮 ...

公司日前发布公告提示，公司股价短期波动幅度较大，敬请广大投资者注意二级市场交易风险，理性决 策，审慎投资。经自查，公司目前生产经营活动一切正常，市场环境、行业政策没有发生重大调整，生 产成本和销售等情况没有出现大幅波动，内部生产经营秩序正常。2025年前三季度，公司营业收入为 53855.53万元，同比上涨62.29%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润亏损10297.45万元。但由于下游锂电行 业的恢复仍面临着不确定性，以及公司的降本增效仍在持续进行中，公司仍然面临业绩下滑或亏损的风 险。 石大胜华此前5日累计涨超50%。公司日前提示，公司股票价格短期涨幅较大，但公司基本面没有发生 重大变化，请广大投资者注意投资风险，理性投资。公司未发现存在对公司股票交易价格可能或已经产 生重大影响的媒体报道或市场传闻、热点概念。 公司2025年前三季度实现营业收入46.35亿元，同比增长11.41%，归属于上市公司股东的净利润-6220.18 万元，同比减少652.16%。2025年前三季度较上年同期利润下滑主要是下游需求偏弱、产能增加、价格 下降等因素所致。 锂电概念18日盘中大幅跳水，截至发稿，华盛锂电、中能电气、海科新源等 ...

Market Overview - The market has seen a shift in focus, with the TMT sector rising while the new energy sector is experiencing a pullback [3][11]. - The AI application sector remains strong, particularly in the "AI + e-commerce" direction, with stocks like XuanYa International and ZhiDeMai hitting the daily limit up [5][9]. AI Application Sector - The AI application sector continues to perform well, with significant gains in stocks related to AI and e-commerce [5]. - Notable stocks include FuShi Holdings, ZhiDeMai, and GuangYun Technology, all achieving a 20% increase [6]. New Energy Sector - The new energy sector is facing a downturn, particularly in the lithium battery supply chain, with companies like HuaSheng Lithium and ZhongYi Technology seeing significant declines of 13.80% and 12.34% respectively [12][14]. - The overall market sentiment is affected by the recent announcement from CATL regarding a share transfer, which has contributed to the stock's decline [12][14]. Battery Materials and Pricing - Battery materials are experiencing price increases, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics in the energy storage sector [15]. - The demand for lithium iron phosphate and lithium hexafluorophosphate is expected to remain strong, with market analysts optimistic about the lithium battery supply chain's resilience [16]. Investment Recommendations - CITIC Securities suggests focusing on both foundational and application layers in the AI sector, emphasizing the importance of companies with large user bases and proven monetization strategies [10]. - The report highlights opportunities in the supply chain related to inference computing and vertical applications, particularly in high-value sectors like automotive and industrial [10].

今天上午，市场主线切换。新能源赛道回调，TMT板块上涨。 TMT板块中，AI应用方向持续活跃，宣亚国际、值得买、福石控股、光云科技等个股集体"20CM"涨停。半导体产业链走强，北方华创、中微公司、拓荆 科技等设备股大涨；算力产业链反弹，寒武纪、海光信息、新易盛、胜宏科技等龙头股上涨。 截至上午收盘，上证指数下跌0.56%，深证成指下跌0.43%，创业板指下跌0.43%。市场半日成交额超1.29万亿元。 AI应用板块持续走强 今天上午，AI应用主线继续表现活跃，"AI+电商"方向走势最强，拼多多概念、互联网电商等板块涨幅居前，Sora概念、多模态AI等板块上涨。宣亚国 际、值得买、福石控股、光云科技等个股迎来"20CM"涨停。 | 兀堡推长 | 20.54 | 10.02% | 48.5 Z | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002878 | | | | | 首板涨停 最终涨停 09:43 | | | | | 视觉中国 | 23.66 | 10.00% | 160亿 | | 融 000681 | | | | | 首板涨停 最终涨停 11:15 | | | | | 易点天下 | 34.1 ...

今天上午，市场主线切换。新能源赛道回调，TMT板块上涨。 TMT板块中，AI应用方向持续活跃，宣亚国际（300612）、值得买（300785）、福石控股（300071）、光云科技等个股集体"20CM"涨停。半导体产业链 走强，北方华创（002371）、中微公司、拓荆科技等设备股大涨；算力产业链反弹，寒武纪、海光信息、新易盛（300502）、胜宏科技（300476）等龙头 股上涨。 截至上午收盘，上证指数下跌0.56%，深证成指下跌0.43%，创业板指下跌0.43%。市场半日成交额超1.29万亿元。 AI应用板块持续走强 | | | Sora 概念 (文生视频) 2410.47 3.22% | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 成分股 | 基金 | 资金 | 板块分析 | 新闻 | | 5展开分析 | | 最新 | 涨幅 ◆ | 流通市值 | | 福右控股 创 300071 | | 7.06 | 20.07% | 66.7 亿 | | 首板涨停 人气龙头2 最终涨停 11:08 | | | | | | 值得买 8 300785 | | 48.59 | 20.00% | ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.47%, down 387 points, closing at 25,997 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.67% [1] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a morning trading volume of HKD 134.5 billion [1] Group 2: Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor stocks showed resilience, with SMIC reporting full production lines and significant price increases in memory chips [1] - Hua Hong Semiconductor rose over 4%, while SMIC increased by 1.5% [1] Group 3: Corporate Performance - Ctrip Group's stock rose by 1.53% after reporting a net profit of RMB 19.9 billion for the third quarter, highlighting strong international business performance [1] - CIMC Enric Holdings increased by 3.89% as it announced a share buyback plan of up to HKD 200 million and reported a significant acceleration in new orders for the third quarter [2] - Cambridge International's stock rose over 3% due to its focus on silicon photonics technology, benefiting from high demand in computing power [3] Group 4: Entertainment and Coal Sector - Maoyan Entertainment's stock fell over 2%, with a cumulative drop of 10% over three days, attributed to a significant decline in box office revenue for "Demon Slayer" after three days of release [4] - Coal stocks experienced notable declines, with Yanzhou Coal Mining down 4.88% and Yancoal Australia down 3.8%, as institutions suggest a short-term peak in coal prices [4] Group 5: Lithium Battery Sector - Lithium battery stocks collectively declined, with prices of lithium carbonate continuing to rise, and analysts indicating limited upward potential for lithium prices next year [4] - CATL fell by 3.8%, Contemporary Amperex Technology by 8.6%, and Ganfeng Lithium by 6.5% [4]

Core Viewpoint - Despite cautious sentiment in the global new energy market, optimistic predictions from Ganfeng Lithium's chairman Li Liangbin have sparked positive market reactions, driving domestic lithium prices and related stocks significantly higher [1][3] Group 1: Market Reactions - On Monday, the most active lithium carbonate contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange surged by 9%, reaching a price of 95,200 yuan per ton (approximately $13,400), marking the highest market sentiment in months [1] - Ganfeng Lithium's stock price rose by 7.48% on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, while peers Tianqi Lithium and Yahua Group also saw their stock prices hit the daily limit of 10% increase, indicating a collective rally in the lithium sector [3] Group 2: Demand Forecasts - Li Liangbin predicts a robust 30% growth in global lithium demand by 2026, with potential for prices to rise to 150,000 yuan to 200,000 yuan per ton if demand exceeds expectations [1] - The emergence of battery energy storage systems as a new demand driver is expected to compensate for the slowdown in electric vehicle market growth, creating strong demand for lithium [3] Group 3: Industry Insights - Analysts note that Li Liangbin's statements serve as crucial "expectation management," effectively reversing market sentiment during a period of widespread pessimism [4] - The focus of the market is shifting from electric vehicle penetration to energy storage and AI-driven electricity demand, indicating a transformation in lithium's value from merely a "battery metal" to a "cornerstone metal for energy transition" [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 17, 2025, the 2601 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 9% to 95,200 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 86,150 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 83,800 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 800 yuan/ton to 77,280 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 217 tons to 26,953 tons [3]. - On the supply side, production remained flat while imports increased. The weekly production increased slightly month - on - month, with little change in domestic production in November compared to the previous month. In October, Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China increased by 46% month - on - month to 16,200 tons. On the demand side, the demand for lithium carbonate from ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate in November increased by 4% month - on - month to 114,600 tons. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of lithium carbonate has been decreasing for 13 consecutive weeks to 120,500 tons, and the inventory turnover days dropped to a new low of 28.1 days since the listing of futures, with a relatively fast de - stocking speed in the downstream [3]. - Currently, the long - short game in the market has intensified, with short - term resonance between stocks and commodities. The core reason for being bullish on the fundamentals is that in November, the inventory has been decreasing at a relatively fast pace, the warehouse receipt inventory remains low, the ore price is still firm, and the expected prosperity of the energy storage end and the strengthening of related material prices have increased the demand for inventory replenishment in each link and raw materials. However, several points need attention: First, as prices rise, spot trading has become sluggish, but the supply side is expected to increase the operating rate to some extent, and the gap in December may narrow compared to November. Second, there is a mismatch between the phased terminal performance and market expectations. Affected by the project cycle, the newly commissioned scale in October decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month. In October, the retail sales of new energy vehicles decreased by about 1.3% month - on - month, and the power end may face an off - season in the first quarter after the pre - consumption this year. Third, the actual resumption of production of lithium mines in Jiangxi is still uncertain, with a 10 - working - day document publicity period and the specific time node unknown. Fourth, the current weighted contract positions of lithium carbonate exceed 1.1 million lots, and the main contract positions exceed 550,000 lots, so position disturbances need to be vigilant [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Futures, spot prices, and warehouse receipt inventory: The 2601 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 9% to 95,200 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 217 tons to 26,953 tons [3]. - Supply, demand, and inventory: On the supply side, production was flat with increased imports. In October, Chile's exports to China increased by 46% to 16,200 tons. On the demand side, November demand increased by 4% to 114,600 tons. The social inventory decreased for 13 consecutive weeks to 120,500 tons, and the inventory turnover days dropped to 28.1 days [3]. - Market situation: The long - short game intensified, with short - term resonance between stocks and commodities. Bullish fundamentals are due to fast de - stocking, low warehouse receipt inventory, and firm ore prices. However, there are concerns such as sluggish spot trading, potential supply increase, terminal - market expectation mismatch, uncertain resumption of Jiangxi lithium mines, and large contract positions [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Price changes: Most products in the lithium - battery industry chain showed price increases on November 17, 2025, compared to November 14. For example, the main contract closing price of futures increased by 7,840 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium - related ores, lithium salts, and some lithium - battery materials also rose. Some products like certain ternary precursors and battery cells remained unchanged [5]. - Price differences: The battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium carbonate price difference decreased by 200 yuan/ton, and the CIF China - Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide price difference decreased by 455 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium - bearing ores such as lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: The price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc., are presented from 2024 to 2025 [10]. - Price differences: Charts display the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc., from 2024 to 2025 [17]. - Precursor and cathode materials: The price trends of ternary precursors and cathode materials such as ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate are shown from 2024 to 2025 [24][26]. - Lithium - battery prices: The price trends of lithium - battery cells and batteries such as 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, etc., are presented from 2024 to 2025 [32]. - Inventory: The inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other sectors are shown from March to November 2025 [37]. - Production cost: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [42]. 3.4 Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metal researcher, etc. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, and the team has won many awards [45]. - Wang Heng, a finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [46]. - Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [46].

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 11 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 市场全天震荡调整，三大指数小幅下跌。个股涨跌互现，今日成交 1.93 万 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 亿。截止收盘沪指跌 0.46%，深成指跌 0.11%，创业板指跌 0.2%。中美元首 近日于韩国举行会谈，双边关系向着稳中向好的方向迈进，有利于我国需求 总量的提升，也有利于 A 股科技股继续对标美股估值。《中国共产党第二十 | | | | 届中央委员会第四次全体会议公报》聚焦几大主线：（1）"抓住新一轮科技 | | | | 革命和产业变革历史机遇"并形成现代化产业体系；（2）继续扩大内需，"促 | | | 股指 | 进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动"；（3）继续深化改革和扩大开放。《公 | 震荡 | | | 报》内容符合市场预期，提振市场信心，预计未来结构化行情仍将延续。但 | | | | 当前科创指数估值处于历史极值位置，盘面上谨慎追高。短期来看，三季报 | | | | 结束发布，重要会议后市场关注点可能重新回到基本面上来，A 股非金融三 | | | | 季报 ...