Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core Viewpoints - The external macro - influence is more positive, and there are still incremental expectations for domestic monetary and fiscal policies in the later stage. The supply growth rate of iron ore exceeds expectations, while the demand side remains resilient. The overall supply - demand relationship has shifted from tight - balance to balance. In the short term, iron ore lacks an obvious upward driver, and its price is expected to follow the market trend [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Logic - Yesterday, the black - series commodities traded under the weak reality. The reasons are the pressure of futures - spot convergence in the near - month delivery logic, the suppression of the main contract price rebound by the cost of warehouse receipts of iron ore and coking coal 09 contracts, and the decline in the sentiment of the equity market which also suppresses the black - series sentiment. The super - seasonal inventory accumulation of rebar at the finished - product end has depressed the valuation of the black - series, and the high - level decline of blast - furnace profits has limited the space for molten iron increase. The unexpected increase in supply has also suppressed the market [2] Supply - The overseas ore shipments have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level. The shipments of Australian Rio Tinto and FMG mines have increased significantly, while the Brazilian shipments have declined significantly after reaching a historical high, and the non - mainstream shipments have also declined from a high level. The arrival volume is at a moderately high level, and the supply - side pressure has weakened [2] Demand - The domestic daily average molten iron output has increased slightly for two consecutive weeks, with the current daily average molten iron output of 240.75 (a month - on - month increase of 0.09). The profitability rate of steel mills has declined from a high level, and the blast - furnace profit has also continuously declined. The short - process steelmaking has fallen into an overall loss again, which protects the demand for iron ore to a certain extent. The support of domestic demand for prices has weakened marginally. Attention should be paid to whether the molten iron output can remain high and the military parade production - restriction in North China [2] Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills remains high, and the inventory at steel mills has declined month - on - month. The port inventory has continued to accumulate slightly. With the increase in shipments and the decline in molten iron output, the inventory is expected to remain stable or increase slightly in the short term [2] Price - This week, the price will fluctuate within a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore futures (2601 contract) will be in the range of 775 - 810 yuan/ton, corresponding to the external market FE09 price of about 101 - 105.5 US dollars/ton [4]

Group 1: Report on Iron Ore Spot Market - Newman powder price is 767, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 3; its discounted futures price is 820.5, import profit is -32.94 [1] - PB powder price is 770, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 3; its discounted futures price is 816.3, import profit is -16.86 [1] - Macfadden powder price is 757, with a daily decrease of 1 and a weekly increase of 2; its discounted futures price is 826.9, import profit is -11.31 [1] - Jinbuba powder price is 740, with a daily decrease of 2 and a weekly decrease of 1; its discounted futures price is 832.3, import profit is -7.87 [1] - Mainstream mixed powder price is 708, with a daily increase of 1 and a weekly increase of 8; its discounted futures price is 835.4, import profit is -3.59 [1] - Super special powder price is 660, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 12; its discounted futures price is 872.8, import profit is -8.07 [1] - Carajás powder price is 879, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 1; its discounted futures price is 823.0, import profit is -39.99 [1] - Brazilian blended powder price is 807, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 1; its discounted futures price is 821.1, import profit is -12.09 [1] - Brazilian coarse IOC6 price is 778, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 8 [1] - Brazilian coarse SSFG price is 783, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 8 [1] - Ukrainian concentrate price is 887, with a daily increase of 4 and a weekly increase of 14; its discounted futures price is 950.9 [1] - 61% Indian powder price is 729, with a daily decrease of 2 and a weekly decrease of 1 [1] - Karara concentrate price is 887, with a daily increase of 4 and a weekly increase of 14; its discounted futures price is 908.4 [1] - Roy Hill powder price is 740, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 3; its discounted futures price is 814.6, import profit is -10.25 [1] - KUMBA powder price is 829, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 3; its discounted futures price is 819.9 [1] - 57% Indian powder price is 605, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 12 [1] - Atlas powder price is 703, with a daily increase of 1 and a weekly increase of 8 [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate price is 983, with a daily decrease of 6 and a weekly increase of 6; its discounted futures price is 870.0 [1] Group 2: Report on Iron Ore Futures Market - i2601 contract price is 775.5, with a daily decrease of 1.0 and a weekly increase of 6.5; its monthly spread is 21.0, with a daily increase of 1.0 and a weekly decrease of 3.2 [1] - i2605 contract price is 753.5, with a daily decrease of 0.5 and a weekly increase of 6.5; its monthly spread is 22.0, with a daily increase of 0.5 and a weekly decrease of 3.2 [1] - i2509 contract price is 796.5, with a daily decrease of 0.5 and a weekly increase of 10.5; its monthly spread is -43.0, with a daily increase of 0.5 and a weekly decrease of 7.2 [1] - FE01 contract price is 101.60, with a daily decrease of 0.95 and a weekly increase of 1.11; its monthly spread is 0.73, with a daily decrease of 1.7 and a weekly decrease of 0.7 [1] - FE05 contract price is 99.19, with a daily decrease of 1.04 and a weekly increase of 1.13; its monthly spread is 2.41, with a daily increase of 0.5 and a weekly decrease of 1.9 [1] - FE09 contract price is 102.33, with a daily decrease of 0.93 and a weekly increase of 1.28; its monthly spread is -3.14, with a daily decrease of 0.8 and a weekly increase of 0.5 [1]

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: August 28, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 27, the iron ore futures main contract 2601 oscillated weakly, closing at 775.5 yuan/ton, down 0.64%. The accident at the SimFer mine in Guinea had a limited impact, and the production is expected to resume soon. The short - term bullish sentiment has faded [7][10][11]. - Fundamentally, the supply of iron ore has a slightly rising trend, and the subsequent arrivals may show a pattern of low first and high later. The demand side remains strong, but the profit of steel production has declined, and the 9.3 limit - production may affect both terminal demand and blast - furnace demand. The market is worried about the potential weakening of demand in the future [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Review** - On August 27, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract oscillated weakly, opening at 776 yuan/ton, reaching a high of 781.5 yuan/ton and a low of 773 yuan/ton, and closing at 775.5 yuan/ton, down 0.64% [7]. - The prices of major iron ore outer - market quotes remained flat on August 27 compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased by 3 - 5 yuan/ton [9]. - The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to rise, and the green column of the daily MACD indicator has narrowed for 3 consecutive trading days [9]. - **Outlook** - The accident at the SimFer mine in Guinea had a limited impact, and the production is expected to resume soon. The short - term bullish sentiment has faded [10][11]. - Supply: The weekly shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil increased slightly last week, with a significant increase in Australian shipments and a decline in Brazilian shipments. The total shipments in the past four weeks increased by 1.8% compared with the previous four weeks. Considering the shipping time, the subsequent arrivals may be low first and high later [11]. - Demand: The production enthusiasm of enterprises remains high, and the molten iron output has increased for two consecutive weeks, remaining above 2.4 million tons. Regarding the 9.3 limit - production, according to Mysteel's survey, most steel mills received oral notices of environmental protection limit - production, mainly for sintering machines with a 30% - 40% reduction. Only 13 steel mills said that blast - furnace production was restricted. The steel production profit has declined recently, which may affect future production enthusiasm [11]. - Downstream: The demand for steel products recovered last week, but its sustainability needs to be observed. Considering the possible phased suspension of infrastructure projects in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region before September 3, a cautious attitude is recommended, and the demand may weaken again [11]. 3.2 Industry News - On August 25, 2025, the Australian Anti - Dumping Commission announced the postponement of the release of the basic fact report and final recommendation of the anti - dumping sunset review investigation on imported wire rods from China. The basic fact report is expected to be completed no later than December 10, 2025, and the final report will be submitted to the Australian Minister of Industry and Science no later than February 23, 2026 [13]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts related to iron ore and steel, including prices, shipments, arrivals, inventory, production capacity utilization, and consumption, with data sources from Mysteel and the research and development department of CCB Futures [17][24][40]

1. Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are in a weak downward trend. The spread between the October and January contracts of rebar has stopped falling and risen, and the near - month rebar has turned from weak to strong. The spread between the October and January contracts of hot - rolled coils has continued to strengthen. The difference in the month - to - month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils is due to the widening of the near - month spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has fallen from a maximum of 290 to around 250 yuan. In August, the supply of rebar increased while demand decreased, especially the demand dropped significantly, which affected the weakening of steel prices, and the decline of rebar was greater than that of hot - rolled coils. - Last week's data showed that rebar production decreased again, and apparent demand stopped falling and rebounded. It is expected that the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar will decline from a high level. From the perspective of total apparent demand, last week's demand data showed signs of bottoming out and rebounding, but it was still at an off - season level. There is an expectation of demand recovery in the peak seasons of September - October. Considering that steel demand has not stalled and coking coal has not resumed production, it is expected that steel prices will remain in a high - level volatile pattern, but recently steel prices are weaker than iron ore and coking coal. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts all showed a downward trend. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3300 to 3290 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coils decreased from 3361 to 3348 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The price of steel billets decreased by 20 yuan to 3010 yuan, and the price of slab billets remained unchanged at 3730 yuan. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 1 yuan to 3345 yuan, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 22 yuan to 133 yuan [1]. Production - The daily average pig - iron output increased slightly by 0.1 to 240.8 tons, with a growth rate of 0.0%. The output of five major steel products increased by 6.4 to 878.1 tons, with a growth rate of 0.7%. Rebar production decreased by 5.8 to 214.7 tons, a decrease of 2.6%, while hot - rolled coil production increased by 9.7 to 325.2 tons, an increase of 3.1% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 25.1 to 1441.0 tons, with a growth rate of 1.8%. Rebar inventory increased by 19.8 to 607.0 tons, a growth rate of 3.4%, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.0 to 361.4 tons, a growth rate of 1.1% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.8 to 9.1 tons, with a growth rate of 9.7%. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 22.0 to 853.0 tons, a growth rate of 2.6%. The apparent demand of rebar increased by 4.9 to 194.8 tons, a growth rate of 2.6%, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils increased by 6.5 to 321.3 tons, a growth rate of 2.1% [1]. 2. Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - As of yesterday's afternoon close, the 2601 contract of iron ore showed a weak and volatile trend. Fundamentally, the global shipment volume of iron ore has declined from a high level on a month - on - month basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased. Based on recent shipment data, the average arrival volume in the future will increase periodically. - On the demand side, last week, the profit margin of steel mills was at a relatively high level, the maintenance volume decreased slightly, and pig - iron output increased slightly at a high level and remained at around 240,000 tons per day. It is expected that pig - iron output will decrease this week due to production in Tangshan. From the data of five major steel products, it can be seen that the apparent demand of downstream products has increased on a month - on - month basis recently, which supports steel prices. - In terms of inventory, port inventory has decreased slightly, the port clearance volume has decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the inventory of steel mills' equity ore has decreased on a month - on - month basis. Looking forward, pig - iron output will decline slightly at a high level at the end of August. The market sentiment was overdrawn by the futures price increase on Monday. Currently, the fundamentals are difficult to drive a significant increase, so the price rose on Tuesday and then fell back. After the military parade, steel mills will resume production, and pig - iron output will increase, which will support raw materials. Coupled with the relatively low port inventory compared to the same period last year and the high daily consumption of steel mills, the futures price still has a basis for rebound. For strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, and an iron ore 1 - 5 positive spread is recommended for arbitrage [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The basis of the 01 contract for various iron ore powders has increased significantly. For example, the basis of the 01 contract for PB powder increased from 19.2 to 40.7 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 112.2%. The 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged at - 43.0, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 0.5 to 21.0, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 0.5 to 22.0 [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of most iron ore varieties in Rizhao Port remained unchanged, while the price of Jinbuba powder decreased by 2 yuan to 725.0 yuan/ton. The price of the Singapore Exchange's 62% Fe swap decreased by 0.3 to 101.7 dollars/ton, and the price of the Platts 62% Fe decreased by 1.1 to 102.0 dollars/ton [3]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 83.3 to 2393.3 tons, a decrease of 3.4%. The weekly global shipment volume decreased by 90.8 to 3315.8 tons, a decrease of 2.7%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 131.5 to 10462.3 tons, a decrease of 1.2% [3]. Demand - The weekly average daily pig - iron output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.1 to 240.8 tons, with a growth rate of 0.0%. The weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 8.9 to 325.7 tons, a decrease of 2.7%. The national monthly pig - iron output decreased by 110.8 to 7079.7 tons, a decrease of 1.5%, and the national monthly crude - steel output decreased by 352.6 to 7965.8 tons, a decrease of 4.2% [3]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 46.5 to 13798.68 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills decreased by 70.9 to 9065.5 tons, a decrease of 0.8%. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 20.0 days, a decrease of 4.8% [3]. 3. Coking Coal and Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints Coke - As of yesterday's afternoon close, the coke futures showed a weak downward trend, with recent prices fluctuating sharply. The spot price of coke has risen after the seventh - round price increase was implemented, and the port trade quotation has followed the increase. On the supply side, due to the implementation of the price increase, the coking profit has improved, and the start - up rate of coking enterprises has increased slightly. On the demand side, the pig - iron output from blast furnaces has fluctuated at a high level, and downstream demand still has resilience. It is expected that pig - iron output will decline slightly in August due to production restrictions in Tangshan. In terms of inventory, the inventory of coking plants has started to accumulate, the port inventory has decreased slightly, and the steel - mill inventory has decreased. The overall inventory is at a medium level. Due to tight supply - demand and logistics factors, downstream steel mills still have a need to replenish inventory, and the arrival of goods is delayed, so they finally accepted the seventh - round price increase of coke. Yesterday, the futures price decreased, and the futures price has a slight premium for wet - quenched coke but is at a discount to the warehouse - receipt cost of dry - quenched coke, and the hedging space has narrowed. Production restrictions in Tangshan are beneficial to finished steel products, and Shandong and Henan also have production - restriction requirements for coking. The short - term supply - demand tightness will be maintained, but as the coking profit improves, the supply of coke will gradually become looser. The futures price has recently followed the decline of coking coal. For strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke is recommended. Pay attention to risks due to increased price fluctuations [6]. Coking Coal - As of yesterday's afternoon close, the coking - coal futures showed a weak downward trend, with recent prices fluctuating sharply. The spot auction price is stable to weak, and the Mongolian - coal quotation has decreased slightly. On the supply side, due to recent mine accidents and coal - mine production - suspension rectifications, the coal - mine start - up rate has decreased slightly on a month - on - month basis, and shipments have slowed down. Coal mines are selling at a reduced profit, the market supply - demand situation has eased, some coal mines have started to accumulate inventory, and the price of imported Mongolian coal has followed the decline of futures. Due to the relatively high price, downstream users have been cautious about replenishing inventory recently. On the demand side, the start - up rate of coking has increased slightly, the pig - iron output from downstream blast furnaces has fluctuated at a high level, and the downstream demand for inventory replenishment has slowed down. Considering the production restrictions on steel mills in Tangshan before the military parade, pig - iron output will decline periodically at the end of August. In terms of inventory, coal mines, ports, and steel mills have slightly increased their inventory, while coal - washing plants and coking plants have slightly decreased their inventory. The overall inventory has decreased slightly from a medium level. The spot market has stabilized after a slight correction. The approaching delivery of the near - month contract exerts some pressure on the 09 contract, and the far - month valuation still has a premium over the near - month Mongolian - coal warehouse receipt. The mine accident in Fujian and the production - suspension of some coal mines in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Shaanxi have triggered expectations of production restrictions, which drove the price increase on Monday, but the spot market is still running weakly and stably, and the price has given back the previous rebound in the past two trading days. For strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal is recommended. Pay attention to risks due to increased price fluctuations [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Prices and Spreads - For coke, the 09 - contract price decreased from 1610 to 1601 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.64%, and the 01 - contract price decreased from 1681 to 1670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.74%. For coking coal, the 09 - contract price decreased from 1031 to 1012 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.9%, and the 01 - contract price decreased from 1161 to 1154 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6% [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.1 to 65.5 tons, with a growth rate of 0.1%. The raw - coal output of sample coal mines increased by 3.8 to 860.4 tons, with a growth rate of 0.4%, and the clean - coal output increased by 3.4 to 442.7 tons, with a growth rate of 0.8% [6]. Demand - The weekly pig - iron output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.1 to 240.8 tons, with a growth rate of 0.0%. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.1 to 65.5 tons, with a growth rate of 0.1% [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 1.2 to 888.6 tons, with a growth rate of 0.1%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.9 to 64.4 tons, a growth rate of 3.04%, the steel - mill coke inventory decreased by 0.2 to 609.6 tons, a decrease of 0.0%, and the port inventory decreased by 0.5 to 214.6 tons, a decrease of 0.24%. The clean - coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 5.7 to 117.6 tons, a growth rate of 5.1%, the coking - plant coking - coal inventory decreased by 10.5 to 966.4 tons, a decrease of 1.1%, and the steel - mill coking - coal inventory increased by 6.5 to 812.3 tons, a growth rate of 0.8% [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market cooled yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products declined slightly. The weak demand pattern of finished steel is obvious, the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the weak characteristics of the market are becoming more prominent. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively improved, the prices still face the risk of continuous decline. The raw material side is relatively more resilient than the finished steel products. It is recommended to continuously track the progress of terminal demand recovery and the support of the cost side for the prices of finished steel products [3]. - The supply of iron ore is in the traditional shipping off - season of overseas mines, and the pressure is not significant. The profitability of steel mills continues to decline, and the firm raw material prices have a certain impact on steel mill profits. The short - term increase in hot metal may be limited. The overall supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is not prominent for the time being, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. - The prices of ferroalloys have dropped rapidly, and the market is affected by emotions. In the short term, it is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations. In the long run, prices will move closer to the fundamentals [10]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and the short - term operating range is 8300 - 9300 yuan/ton. The price of polysilicon may be adjusted in the short term, with support levels at 47000 and 44000 yuan/ton [15][16]. - Glass is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and its valuation should not be overly underestimated. In the long term, it follows macro - sentiment fluctuations. The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center is expected to gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [18][19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3113 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton (- 0.79%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3367 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton (- 0.64%) from the previous trading day. The rebar inventory continued to accumulate, and the demand was still weak. The demand for hot - rolled coils continued to recover, but the inventory had increased for six consecutive weeks [2]. - **Market Situation**: The overall demand for finished steel is weak, the production volume is still at a high level, and the demand - side support is insufficient. The profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the market is showing weak characteristics. If the demand cannot improve, the prices may continue to decline [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 775.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.13% (- 1.00), and the position increased by 1884 hands to 45.47 million hands. The weighted position was 80.06 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 768 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 40.31 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.94% [5]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The overseas iron ore shipping rhythm was stable. The demand for iron ore was basically flat, and the steel mill profitability continued to decline. The port inventory continued to rise slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory decreased slightly. The overall supply - demand contradiction was not prominent [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: On August 27, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) continued to fluctuate weakly, closing down 0.51% at 5832 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) fluctuated downward, closing down 0.39% at 5634 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Market Situation**: The prices of ferroalloys dropped rapidly due to the weakening of the "anti - involution" sentiment. It is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively in the short term, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities. The supply of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon is increasing, and attention should be paid to the changes in downstream demand [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8525 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.12% (+ 10). The price is expected to fluctuate, and the short - term operating range is 8300 - 9300 yuan/ton [13][15]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 48690 yuan/ton, with a change of - 4.50% (- 2295). The price may be adjusted in the short term, with support levels at 47000 and 44000 yuan/ton [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China remained unchanged. The inventory pressure increased slightly, and the downstream demand was still weak. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and the valuation should not be overly underestimated [18]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price was stable, and the inventory pressure decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center is expected to gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [19].

Group 1 - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June, marking two consecutive months of narrowing [1][6] - High-tech manufacturing profits shifted from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase in July, significantly boosting the overall profit growth rate of industrial enterprises [1][6] - From August 1 to 24, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 727,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 7%, with a cumulative retail of 7.182 million units in 2023, up 27% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.7625%, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan in the central bank's open market operations [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI for August in both the US and Eurozone rebounded above the critical point, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [2][9] - The real estate market continues to adjust, with second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities declining month-on-month, prompting the government to enhance macro policy effectiveness [2][9] Group 3 - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to increase by 3.03% from the same period last month, while exports are projected to rise significantly [3][25] - The dual-fuel market is experiencing a mixed trend, with iron and coke prices showing fluctuations amid stable demand and increasing inventory levels [3][23] Group 4 - The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit will take place from August 31 to September 1, 2025, in Tianjin, where member states will sign the "Tianjin Declaration" and approve the "10-Year Development Strategy of the SCO" [5]

Core Viewpoint - The global iron ore supply is expected to increase, while demand is projected to decline, leading to downward pressure on iron ore prices in the latter half of the year [1][11]. Supply - China's steel production capacity and output account for over 50% of the global total, requiring more than 1.1 billion tons of iron ore annually, which constitutes over 70% of global iron ore imports [1]. - Global iron ore production is expected to increase by 30.39 million tons in 2025, with a significant rise of 62.37 million tons in the second half of the year due to projects like the Iron Bridge and Onslow [3]. - The four major mining companies dominate the global iron ore market, controlling pricing and capturing over 90% of the profits in China's steel industry [1][11]. Demand - Global crude steel production decreased by 1.6% year-on-year to 1.086 billion tons in the first seven months of the year, with expectations of negative growth in 2025 [8]. - Despite a strong demand for iron ore in the domestic market, steel mills are likely to reduce production in the latter half of the year due to declining steel demand and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies [8][11]. - China's iron ore imports decreased by 2.4% year-on-year in the first seven months, impacting total domestic iron ore supply [4][9]. Cost - The cash cost of iron ore from the four major mining companies is between $20 and $40 per ton, while domestic production costs range from $80 to $90 per ton [10]. - The average import price of iron ore for China was around $117 to $120 per ton in 2022-2023, with a projected decrease to approximately $109 per ton in 2024 [2]. Profitability - Domestic steel mills are facing thin profit margins, with some operating at breakeven, while the four major mining companies enjoy profit margins exceeding 200% [11]. - The anticipated increase in iron ore supply and the decline in steel demand are expected to pressure iron ore prices downward in the latter half of the year [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar showed a weak and volatile trend, with a daily decline of 0.48%. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar in the off - season remain poor, and the steel price is under pressure. However, the cost increase limits the downward space. In the short term, it is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the demand changes [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil declined in a volatile manner, with a daily decline of 0.92%. The demand for hot - rolled coil shows good resilience, which supports the price. But the fundamentals have not improved under the high - supply pattern. The cost increase and production - restriction disturbances are relatively positive factors. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.64%. The demand for iron ore shows certain resilience, which supports the price. However, the fundamentals have not been substantially improved, and the valuation is relatively high, with weak upward driving force. It is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - From January to July, China completed 394.6 billion person - times of cross - regional population movement, a year - on - year increase of 3.9%. The traffic fixed - asset investment reached 1.95 trillion yuan. In July, the volume of commercial freight reached 497 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to July, the volume of commercial freight reached 33 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [6]. - In 2025, the national plan is to start the renovation of 25,000 old urban residential areas. From January to July, 19,800 old urban residential areas started renovation. Six regions including Hebei, Liaoning, etc. had a start - up rate of over 90% [7]. - From January to July, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China was 4,020.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. The total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4% [8]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and Tangshan billet decreased, while the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap remained unchanged. The prices of 61.5% PB powder decreased, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate remained stable. The sea freight, SGX swap, and Platts Index also showed certain changes [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of rebar futures was 3,111 yuan, with a decline of 0.48%. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased. - The closing price of hot - rolled coil futures was 3,349 yuan, with a decline of 0.92%. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased. - The closing price of iron ore futures was 775.5 yuan, with a decline of 0.64%. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased [11]. 4. Related Charts - The charts show the inventory of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, the production situation of steel mills, etc., including weekly changes, total inventory, and seasonal trends [13][18][26]. 5. Future Market Judgment - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern remains weak, with continuous inventory accumulation. The weekly output decreased, but the profit per ton is acceptable, and the sustainability of production reduction needs to be tracked. The demand is at a low level, and the steel price is under pressure. It is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend [33]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply increased, and the demand showed good resilience. However, the high - supply pattern has not improved the fundamentals. The cost increase and production - restriction disturbances are positive factors, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate [33]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern changed little. The demand showed certain resilience, but the fundamentals have not been substantially improved, and the valuation is relatively high. It is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend [34].

Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: August 26, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On August 26, the iron ore futures main contract 2601 fluctuated weakly, closing at 776.5 yuan/ton, down 0.70%. The main iron ore outer - market quotes and Qingdao Port iron ore prices decreased. Although the iron ore 2601 contract's technical indicators showed some positive signals, the market was affected by factors such as the SimFer mine accident, supply - demand fundamentals, and external news. The market expected that the parade might lead to a decline in terminal construction site demand and blast furnace demand, and the mine price weakened again. Further observation of the actual impact of production cuts in Tangshan and the impact of the 9·3 production restrictions on downstream construction steel demand is needed [7][9][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - Spot Market: On August 26, the main iron ore outer - market quotes decreased by 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased by 5 - 8 yuan/ton [9] - Technical Analysis: The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to rise after a golden cross yesterday, and the green bar of the daily MACD indicator has narrowed for two consecutive days [9] 1.2 Future Outlook - News: On August 23, Rio Tinto announced that an accident at the SimFer mine in Guinea led to a fatality, and all activities in the mine were suspended. The impact of the accident was limited, and production was expected to resume soon. However, it boosted bullish sentiment in the short term, which has now faded [10][11] - Fundamentals: Supply - the weekly shipment volume of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil increased slightly last week, with a significant increase in Australian shipments and a decline in Brazilian shipments. The total shipment volume in the past four weeks increased by 1.8% compared with the previous four weeks. Considering shipping schedules, the subsequent arrival volume may be low first and then high. Demand - enterprises' production enthusiasm remained high, and the molten iron output increased for two consecutive weeks, remaining above 2.4 million tons. Regarding the 9·3 production restrictions, according to Mysteel's survey, 20 out of 31 steel mills received oral notices of environmental protection production restrictions, mainly for sintering machines with a 30% - 40% reduction. Only 13 steel mills said their blast furnace production would be affected, mostly in Tangshan. The recent decline in steel production profits, especially for rebar blast furnaces, may affect future production enthusiasm. Downstream steel demand recovered last week, but its sustainability needs to be observed. Considering the possible phased suspension of infrastructure projects in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region before September 3, a cautious attitude is recommended, and there is a possibility of demand weakening again [11] 2. Industry News - On August 25, 2025, the Australian Anti - Dumping Commission postponed the release of the basic fact report and final arbitration recommendation for the anti - dumping sunset review investigation of imported wire rods from China. It is expected to complete the basic fact report by December 10, 2025, and submit the final arbitration report to the Australian Minister of Industry and Science by February 23, 2026 [13] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including prices, shipment volumes, arrival volumes, inventory, production capacity utilization rates, and consumption volumes, with data sources from Mysteel and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [17][24][40]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View The report presents the latest prices, daily and weekly changes, and other relevant data for various types of iron ore, including Australian mainstream and non - mainstream ores, Brazilian mainstream ores, and domestic ores, as well as iron ore futures contracts [1]. 3. Summary by Category Spot Market - **Australian Ores**: Newman powder is priced at 767, with a daily change of - 9 and a weekly change of 2; PB powder is at 770, - 10 daily and 2 weekly; Macarthur powder is 758, - 8 daily and 3 weekly; etc [1]. - **Brazilian Ores**: Ba Hun is priced at 807, with a daily change of - 5 and a weekly change of - 2; Ba Coarse IOC6 is 778, - 10 daily and 18 weekly; Ba Coarse SSFG is 783, - 10 daily and 18 weekly [1]. - **Other Ores**: Ukrainian concentrate is 883, - 7 daily and 10 weekly; 61% Indian powder is 731, - 10 daily and 1 weekly; Tangshan iron concentrate is 989, 0 daily and 12 weekly [1]. Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 is priced at 776.5, with a daily change of - 10.5 and a weekly change of 5.5; i2605 is 754.0, - 9.0 daily and 4.5 weekly; i2509 is 797.0, - 9.5 daily and 8.0 weekly [1]. - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 is 102.55, with a daily change of 2.71 and a weekly change of 2.01; FE05 is 100.23, 2.68 daily and 2.12 weekly; FE09 is 103.26, 2.67 daily and 1.83 weekly [1].