Core Viewpoint - The economic data for May indicates a mixed performance, with supply-side growth remaining strong while demand-side indicators show signs of slowing down, particularly in investment and real estate sectors [1][5]. Supply Side: Strong Support - In May, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly above the market expectation of 5.7% [6]. - The manufacturing sector saw a marginal slowdown, with high-tech industries maintaining robust growth rates of 8.6% [6]. - The service sector production index increased by 6.2%, driven by recovering consumer demand and increased holiday travel [9]. Fixed Asset Investment: Real Estate Drag - Fixed asset investment grew by 3.7% year-on-year, below the expected 4.1%, with infrastructure and manufacturing growth rates declining [10]. - Real estate investment saw a significant decline of 10.7%, indicating ongoing challenges in the property market [10][14]. - The construction sector is under pressure due to local government debt and slow issuance of special bonds for projects [10][11]. Consumption: Accelerating Beyond Expectations - Social retail sales increased by 6.4%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 4.8%, with both goods and catering consumption reaching new highs for the year [19]. - The increase in consumption is attributed to policy effects, pre-scheduled shopping festivals, and high demand for electronics and home appliances [19][22]. Outlook: Stabilizing with Localized Pressure - The impact of tariff changes on the economy is expected to weaken, with the second quarter growth likely to exceed earlier market expectations [24]. - However, persistent low prices may continue to erode corporate profits and delay improvements in consumer expectations [24].

Consumption and Retail - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, reaching a new high since 2024, boosted by subsidies in home appliances and communications[1] - Home appliances and audio-visual equipment saw a year-on-year growth of 53.0%, while communication equipment grew by 33.0%, with increases of 14.2 and 13.1 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month[1] - Retail sales of essential goods and dining services grew by 9.6%, 5.3%, and 5.9% year-on-year, indicating stable growth in essential and service consumption[1] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth fell to a year-to-date low of 2.7% year-on-year in May, a decline of 0.8 percentage points for the second consecutive month[2] - Real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, reflecting weak demand and high inventory levels[2] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) dropped to a six-month low of 4.9%, down by 0.9 percentage points[2] Real Estate Market - The residential sales area saw a year-on-year decline of 4.6%, deepening by 2.2 percentage points, marking the lowest since October 2024[2] - New housing starts and completions fell by 18.2% and 22.1% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a continued downturn in the real estate sector[2] - Housing prices in first-tier cities experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.7%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the real estate market[2] Industrial Production - Industrial value-added growth slightly decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 5.8% year-on-year in May, with manufacturing down to 6.2%[2] - The textile industry, significantly impacted by previous high tariffs, saw a notable decline of 2.3 percentage points compared to April, with a year-on-year growth of only 0.6%[2] - Export-oriented industries such as automotive and electronics maintained growth rates above 10%, with increases of 11.6%, 10.2%, and 11.0% year-on-year[2] Economic Outlook - The economic data indicates a "two strong, two weak" scenario, with robust durable goods consumption and a slowdown in real estate and traditional infrastructure investment[2] - A potential interest rate cut of 10 basis points is anticipated to stabilize the real estate market, along with an expected increase in consumer subsidies of 200 billion yuan to counteract potential export declines[2] - The central government's fiscal expansion is likely to be a key source of incremental policy support in the second half of the year[2]

Economic Performance - In May, industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly above the consensus forecast of 5.7%[4] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.4% year-on-year in May, exceeding expectations and up 1.3 percentage points from April[10] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.7% from January to May, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous period[18] Sector Analysis - Manufacturing investment from January to May rose by 8.5% year-on-year, while real estate investment fell by 10.7%[21] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in real estate new construction area was 22.8%, with completed area down by 17.3%[22] - High-tech industries saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.5% in industrial added value from January to May[6] Policy Implications - The importance of stabilizing domestic demand is emphasized, especially with external uncertainties remaining high[30] - Active fiscal policies are being accelerated, with government bond financing continuing to grow significantly[30] - The government is focusing on measures to stabilize the real estate market and boost consumer spending[30] Risks - Potential risks include a resurgence of global inflation and a faster-than-expected economic slowdown in Europe and the U.S.[30]

Core Insights - The industrial production in China showed a robust growth of 5.8% year-on-year in May 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.61% after seasonal adjustments [1] - The manufacturing sector outperformed the overall industrial growth, achieving a 6.2% increase, while mining and electricity sectors grew by 5.7% and 2.2% respectively [1] - The equipment manufacturing industry demonstrated significant growth, with a 9.0% year-on-year increase, contributing 54.3% to the overall industrial production growth [2] Industrial Performance - In May, 35 out of 41 major industries reported year-on-year growth, resulting in a growth coverage of 85.4% [1] - Among 623 major industrial products, 326 products saw an increase in output, reflecting a growth coverage of 52.3% [1] - Cumulatively, from January to May, the industrial added value increased by 6.3% year-on-year [1] Equipment Manufacturing - The equipment manufacturing sector maintained a strong performance, with all eight sub-sectors reporting growth [2] - The automotive industry experienced a notable increase of 11.6% in added value, accelerating by 2.4 percentage points compared to April [2] - Other sectors such as railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and electrical machinery also recorded double-digit growth rates [2] Consumer Goods Manufacturing - The consumer goods manufacturing sector grew by 2.5% year-on-year in May, with 10 out of 13 major categories showing growth [2] - Specific industries like cultural and educational products, chemical fibers, and agricultural products saw increases of 10.1%, 6.1%, and 7.6% respectively [2] - Notable product growth included fiber-reinforced plastic products, carbon fibers, and health foods, with increases of 22.6%, 17.9%, and 14.9% respectively [2] Policy Impact - The "Two New" policy continues to stimulate growth in related industries, with significant increases in sectors like motor manufacturing and shipbuilding [3] - The implementation of vehicle replacement subsidies led to an 11.3% increase in automobile production and a 26.0% rise in charging station production [3] - The overall manufacturing output growth rate has shown signs of slowing down, particularly in high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors [3] Export and Investment Trends - The production and demand for steel have declined, indicating a slowdown in the industrial sector's output [4] - The export delivery value for large-scale industrial enterprises dropped significantly from 7.7% in March to 0.6% in May, highlighting challenges faced by larger firms [4] - Manufacturing investment growth for the first five months of the year was 8.5%, with a monthly growth rate of 7.8% in May, reflecting a slight decline [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial added value of large-scale industries in May increased by 5.8% year-on-year, indicating a positive growth trend in the industrial sector [1] Group 1: Industrial Growth - In May, the industrial added value of large-scale industries grew by 0.61% month-on-month, and from January to May, it increased by 6.3% year-on-year [1] - By sector, mining increased by 5.7%, manufacturing by 6.2%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 2.2% in May [1] Group 2: Economic Type Analysis - In May, state-controlled enterprises saw a 3.8% increase in added value, while joint-stock enterprises grew by 6.3%, foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises by 3.9%, and private enterprises by 5.9% [1] Group 3: Industry Performance - Out of 41 major industries, 35 experienced year-on-year growth in added value in May, with notable increases in coal mining (5.5%), oil and gas extraction (5.3%), and agricultural and sideline food processing (7.6%) [2] - The automotive manufacturing sector showed significant growth of 11.6%, while the railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing sectors grew by 14.6% [2] Group 4: Product Output - In May, 326 out of 623 industrial products saw year-on-year output growth, with steel production at 12.743 million tons (up 3.4%) and automotive production at 2.642 million units (up 11.3%), including 1.245 million new energy vehicles (up 31.7%) [3] - The sales rate for industrial enterprises was 95.9%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the export delivery value reached 1.2682 trillion yuan, a nominal increase of 0.6% [5]

Economic Performance - In May, industrial added value grew by 5.8% year-on-year, while the service production index increased by 6.2%[1] - The GDP growth rate for May is estimated at 5.6%, consistent with the previous value[1] - Social retail sales in May rose by 6.4% year-on-year, marking the highest growth rate since 1999[1] Consumption Trends - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted consumption, with home appliance sales increasing by 53.0% and communication equipment by 33.0%[1] - "Self-indulgence" consumption categories, such as sports and entertainment goods, saw growth rates of 28.3% and 21.8% respectively[1] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 191,947 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year; manufacturing investment grew by 8.5%[1] - Real estate development investment fell by 10.7% year-on-year, with an estimated monthly decline of 11.98%[1] Industrial Production - Industrial added value for May was 5.8%, down from 6.1% in April, indicating a marginal slowdown[2] - Manufacturing investment growth is expected to slow down further due to external uncertainties and diminishing returns from equipment renewal policies[1] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate decreased to 5.0% in May, down from 5.1% in April[2] - Local household unemployment improved significantly, while unemployment among migrant workers increased slightly[2]

Consumption and Retail - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, reaching a new high since 2024, driven primarily by subsidies in home appliances and communications[3] - Home appliance and communication equipment sales grew by 53.0% and 33.0% year-on-year, respectively, with increases of 14.2 and 13.1 percentage points compared to the previous month[3] - Retail sales of essential goods and catering services increased by 9.6%, 5.3%, and 5.9% year-on-year, indicating stable growth in essential and service consumption[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth fell to a year-to-date low of 2.7% year-on-year, marking a decline of 0.8 percentage points for the second consecutive month[4] - Real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year-on-year, with the decline deepening by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, reflecting weak demand and high inventory levels[4] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) dropped to a six-month low of 4.9% year-on-year, down by 0.9 percentage points[4] Real Estate Market - In May, residential sales area saw a year-on-year decline of 4.6%, deepening by 2.2 percentage points, the lowest since October 2024[5] - New housing starts and completions fell by 18.2% and 22.1% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a continued downturn in the real estate sector[5] - The price index for new and second-hand residential properties decreased by 0.2% and 0.5% month-on-month, with first-tier cities experiencing the largest declines[5] Industrial Performance - Industrial added value slightly decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 5.8% year-on-year, with manufacturing down by 0.4 percentage points to 6.2%[5] - Export-oriented industries such as automobiles and electronics maintained growth rates above 10%, with increases of 11.6%, 10.2%, and 11.0% year-on-year[5] Economic Outlook - The report indicates a "two strong, two weak" economic structure, with robust consumer demand and export performance contrasted by weak real estate and traditional infrastructure investment[5] - Anticipated measures include a potential interest rate cut of 10 basis points and an additional 200 billion yuan in consumption subsidies to counteract export decline risks in the second half of the year[5]

Economic Performance - In May, the industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, down from 6.1% in April, with a cumulative growth of 6.3% from January to May[1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.4% year-on-year in May, up from 5.1% in April, with a cumulative growth of 5.0% from January to May[1] - Fixed asset investment from January to May increased by 3.7% year-on-year, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous value, with May's investment growth at 2.7%, a decline of 0.8 percentage points from April[1][2] Industrial Sector Insights - The manufacturing sector's added value growth slowed to 6.2% in May, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to external trade environment changes affecting export trade[4] - Despite a slowdown in export delivery value growth to 0.6% in May, the industrial added value remained around 6.0% due to domestic demand policies and technological innovation[5] - High-tech manufacturing added value grew by 8.6%, indicating strong support for overall industrial performance[5] Consumer Behavior - The rapid growth in retail sales was driven by the "old-for-new" policy for durable goods, with significant increases in categories like home appliances (53.0% growth) and communication equipment (33.0% growth) in May[8] - Automotive retail sales saw a rebound with a 13.6% increase, although the retail sales growth was only 1.1%, indicating pricing pressures in the market[8][9] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment from January to May showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 8.5%, with equipment investment growing by 17.3%, contributing significantly to overall investment growth[10] - Real estate investment continued to decline, with a cumulative drop of 10.7% from January to May, and a monthly decline of 12.4% in May, reflecting ongoing market adjustments[11] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 5.6% year-on-year from January to May, but May's growth slowed to 5.1% due to weak project funding and execution[12] Future Outlook - The economic outlook suggests continued challenges from external trade dynamics, with expectations of further monetary easing and fiscal measures to support growth in the second half of the year[3][13] - The real estate market's stabilization is crucial for boosting consumer confidence and investment, with anticipated support measures to enhance housing market recovery[11][14]

Economic Performance - In May, industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, while the service production index rose by 6.2%[3] - Retail sales grew by 6.4% year-on-year, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Fixed asset investment accumulated a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month[3] Sector Analysis - Infrastructure and manufacturing investment grew by 10.4% and 8.5% respectively in the first five months of the year[3] - New energy vehicle production surged by 40.8%, while industrial robots increased by 32%[3] - Real estate sales and investment saw declines of -2.9% and -10.7% respectively in the first five months[3] Price Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell from -2.7% to -3.3% year-on-year, indicating price pressures affecting investment[3] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed signs of stabilization, nearing the mid-level of 2022-2024[3] Future Outlook - The economy is expected to meet the annual growth target of around 5%, but structural changes will depend on the evolution of the current economic narratives[3] - Key issues to monitor include the potential overconsumption of durable goods, export growth rates, and the government's policy responses[3]

Group 1: Income Dependency on Wages - In 2024, the national per capita disposable income is 41,314 CNY, with per capita wage income at 23,327 CNY, making the wage income share 56.5% of disposable income[3] - By Q1 2025, this share increased to 57.3%, indicating a historical high since 2013[3] Group 2: Wage Growth by Demographics - Urban residents' wage growth in 2024 is 5.04%, aligning with GDP growth, while rural residents see a higher growth rate of 6.94%[4] - In Q1 2025, rural wage growth remains above GDP at 6.71%, while urban growth is slightly lower at 5.16%[4] Group 3: Wage Growth by Employment Type - In 2024, average wage growth for urban private sector employees is 1.7%, compared to 2.8% for non-private sector employees[5][23] Group 4: Wage Distribution Across Industries - In 2024, the total wage amount for urban non-private units is 20.53 trillion CNY[7] - The share of wages in government service industries remains stable at around 35.6% in 2023, while the "old economy" sectors' share has declined from 18.9% in 2019 to 16.4% in 2023[7][29] Group 5: Wage Growth vs. Transfer Payments - Wage growth from 2023 to 2024 outpaces personal income tax growth, but in Q1 2025, wage growth (5.9%) is lower than personal income tax growth (7.1%)[8][32] - Housing fund contributions are growing faster than wage growth, with a 4.67% increase in contributions in 2024 compared to a 4.04% wage growth for urban non-private units[8][37]