1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global corn supply - demand situation is generally loose in 2025/26, with increased production in the US and Ukraine and relatively stable production in Brazil and Argentina. In China, there is a significant increase in corn production in 2025/26, but the quality of North China corn is poor, leading to more demand from grain - using enterprises shifting to Northeast corn. Currently, the overall corn selling progress is fast, but due to increased production, there is still sufficient grain left at the grassroots level. On the demand side, the breeding industry is continuously losing money, and the production capacity of the pig and egg industries will decline. Feed demand has short - term resilience but is pessimistic in the future. In the deep - processing sector, starch processing profits are poor, and the operating rate is low, while alcohol mainly digests low - quality corn. Regarding the inventory behavior of the mid - and downstream, the inventory of feed and deep - processing enterprises has increased significantly month - on - month, and there is insufficient motivation to further increase inventory substantially. The operation should be treated with a view of oscillation [1][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Since December, the domestic corn market has declined from a high level, and then the spot market has also adjusted following the futures market. Futures play a leading role in the spot market. The weaker performance of futures than spot has led to a passive strengthening of the basis at the northern ports. After the corn futures reached a high level at the beginning of the month, market fear of high prices increased. Rumors of wheat and imported corn auctions emerged, suppressing the bullish sentiment. Futures fell first, which further increased the enthusiasm of traders to sell and realize profits. Coupled with the fact that high spot prices have indeed inhibited restocking demand, both futures and spot prices declined in a resonant manner [3]. 3.2 International Corn Market Analysis 3.2.1 Increase in US Corn Production and Significant Rebound in Ending Stocks - According to the USDA's December supply - demand report, in 2025/26, the US corn harvested area is 36.44 million hectares, the yield per unit is 11.68 tons per hectare, and the total output is 425 million tons. Feed consumption is 155 million tons, food and processing demand is 177 million tons, exports are 81.28 million tons, and the ending stocks are 51.53 million tons, with a stock - to - use ratio of 12.5%, lower than the November estimate of 13.3% but significantly higher than the previous year's 10.1% and also at a relatively high level since 2020/21. The significant increase in production is the key factor driving the balance sheet to become looser, mainly due to a large increase in area and a recovery - type growth in yield. Exports and domestic consumption have also increased correspondingly due to the supply boost. From the current export sales report, US corn export sales have increased by nearly 10 million tons compared with the same period of the previous year, and the overall completion progress is good [5]. 3.2.2 Brazil and Argentina's Production Expected to Remain Stable at a High Level - According to the USDA's December estimate, Brazil's corn production in 2025/26 is expected to be 131 million tons, slightly lower than the previous year but with little overall change. According to the latest estimate of Brazil's domestic institution CONAB, Brazil's corn production in 2025/26 is expected to be 139 million tons, a decrease of more than 2 million tons compared with the previous year, similar to the change degree estimated by the USDA. In Argentina, according to the USDA estimate, the production in 2025/26 is expected to be 53 million tons, exports are 37 million tons, and the ending stocks are 4.18 million tons. Overall, the production of Brazil and Argentina in South America in 2025/26 is generally stable. As of now, the weather in the producing areas has been good, and the possibility of achieving high - yield expectations in the future is high [7]. 3.2.3 Recovery - type Increase in Ukraine's Production but with a Revised - down Growth Rate - According to the USDA estimate, Ukraine's corn production in 2025/26 is expected to be 29 million tons, an increase of 2.2 million tons compared with the previous year's 26.8 million tons, with an increase rate of 8%. The increase in production is mainly due to a slight increase in area and the recovery of yield. The final ending stocks are 848,000 tons, a slight increase compared with the previous year, and the stock - to - use ratio is 2.92%, at a low level in recent years. Overall, although Ukraine's production has increased, due to the impact of adverse weather later, the production increase rate is lower than the previous expectation [10]. 3.3 Domestic Corn Market Analysis 3.3.1 Increase in New Crop Production and Fast Selling Progress - In terms of new crop production, according to the analysis report of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the national corn production in 2025/26 is expected to reach 300 million tons, an increase of more than 5 million tons compared with the previous year, mainly due to an increase in yield per unit. In terms of the listing rhythm, due to continuous rainfall during the harvest period in the North China production area, the quality of new corn is poor and the toxin content is high. Grain - using enterprises and grain merchants have a weak enthusiasm for purchasing North China corn, limiting the selling progress. On the other hand, the quality of Northeast corn is good, and there is more procurement from grain merchants in the inland areas, resulting in a fast selling progress of Northeast corn. According to the statistics of myagricultural.com, as of December 25, the selling progress of Northeast corn reached 44%, an increase of 8 percentage points year - on - year; the selling progress of North China corn was 40%, a decrease of 1 percentage point year - on - year; and the national corn selling progress was 45%, an increase of 4 percentage points year - on - year. Due to increased production, there is still sufficient grain left at the grassroots level in China [14]. 3.3.2 Poor Feed Consumption Expectations and Stable Deep - processing Consumption Year - on - Year - According to the calculation data of the Feed Industry Association, the feed output in November 2025 was 28.73 million tons, entering the seasonal decline stage month - on - month but significantly higher than the previous year's 27.1 million tons year - on - year, mainly affected by the expansion of the pig breeding industry's production capacity in 2024. For 2026, since the pig breeding profit has re - entered the loss range, and national policies are focusing on promoting the orderly reduction of production capacity in the pig industry, and the laying - hen breeding industry has also had a very poor year, feed consumption is expected to decline. In deep - processing, according to the sample statistics of myagricultural.com, since 2025/26, the consumption of corn in the national starch industry has decreased year - on - year, mainly because poor processing profits have led to a low operating rate. However, the consumption of corn in the alcohol industry has increased significantly year - on - year, mainly because there is a relatively large proportion of low - quality corn in North China, which is difficult to enter the food processing and feed processing fields and can only be consumed through alcohol processing. From the perspective of the total corn consumption of deep - processing enterprises, the cumulative consumption since this marketing year is similar to that of the previous year [18][19]. 3.3.3 Expected Reduction in the Substitution of Imported Grains and Wheat for Domestic Corn - Since September, the price difference between domestic wheat and corn has been at a relatively high level, giving corn a good cost - performance advantage in the feed field. From the perspective of the corn addition ratio in compound feed statistics of the Feed Industry Association, since September, the corn addition ratio in feed industry production has also continuously rebounded. In terms of import substitution, with the stable growth of China's corn production, the demand for imported substitute grains has decreased, and the volume of imported substitute grains has significantly decreased compared with previous years. The impact of imported substitutes is more reflected in a phased and regional manner [25]. 3.3.4 Rebound in Downstream Enterprise Inventory and Limited Motivation to Further Increase Inventory Significantly - In terms of the inventory of north - south ports, the inventory at northern ports has continuously rebounded and has reached a level close to 2 million tons, but it is still slightly lower than the same period in a neutral sense. Later, with the advancement of the new corn gathering at ports in the Northeast, the inventory at northern ports will also increase seasonally. The grain inventory in the Guangdong sales area is currently at a relatively low level compared with the same period, but with the increase in the arrival of imported grains, the inventory will also be supplemented to some extent. In terms of the raw material inventory of grain - using enterprises, the inventory of North China deep - processing enterprises has increased rapidly, while that of Northeast deep - processing enterprises is still low. From the perspective of the inventory - to - use ratio, the inventory - to - use ratio of national deep - processing enterprises rebounded rapidly in December, and the shortage pattern of raw materials for deep - processing enterprises has improved. The raw material inventory days of feed enterprises have also rebounded significantly to a neutral level compared with the same period. Due to the poor overall profit of the breeding sector and the pessimistic feed demand expectation, feed enterprises have little motivation to further replenish inventory significantly [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures rose, with a weekly increase of about 0.96%. From the current supply - demand situation, the supply of sub - standard products has increased significantly. The inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 1.30% week - on - week and increased by 37.17% year - on - year. The acquisition in Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the processing enterprises are speeding up production and sales. The sales area is entering the peak consumption season, and the short - term decline in jujube prices may slow down [9][10] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Future trading tips include monitoring spot prices and the consumer side - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures rose, with a weekly increase of about 0.96% - As of December 25, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujubes was 15,898 tons, a decrease of 210 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year increase of 37.17% - The acquisition in Xinjiang is coming to an end. Processing enterprises in Xinjiang and the mainland are actively arranging production and accelerating the pace of shipment. The market arrival volume is gradually increasing. The sales area is entering the peak consumption season, and the short - term decline in jujube prices may slow down [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price trend**: The price of the Zhengzhou jujube 2605 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.96% [10] - **Top 20 positions**: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures was - 15,321 lots [13] - **Warehouse receipts**: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts was 1,092 [17] - **Futures price spread**: As of this week, the price spread between the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jujube futures 2605 contract and the 2609 contract was - 250 yuan/ton [18] - **Basis**: As of this week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei grey jujubes and the main contract of jujube futures was 580 yuan/ton [23] - **Purchase price of bulk jujubes in the main production areas**: As of December 26, 2025, the bulk jujube price in Aksu was 5.15 yuan/kg, in Alar was 5.65 yuan/kg, and in Kashgar was 6.5 yuan/kg [26] - **Spot price of first - grade jujubes**: As of December 26, 2025, the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 4.20 yuan/jin, and in Henan was 4.35 yuan/jin [30] - **Spot price of special - grade jujubes**: As of December 26, 2025, the spot price of special - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 9.56 yuan/kg, and the wholesale price in Henan was 9.7 yuan/kg [34] 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply side - Inventory**: As of December 25, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujubes was 15,898 tons, a decrease of 210 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year increase of 37.17% [39] - **Supply side - Production decline possibility**: The jujube production in the 2025/26 season is expected to decline [43] - **Demand side - Export volume**: In October 2025, China's jujube export volume was 2,205,220 kg, with an export value of 35,238,139 yuan and an average export price of 15,979.42 yuan/ton. The export volume decreased by 3.44% month - on - month and 33.29% year - on - year. The cumulative export from January to October 2025 was 25,753,622 kg, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.18% [47] - **Demand side - BOCE Xinjiang jujube trading**: This week, the BOCE Xinjiang jujube "Good Brand" had a small amount of orders [52] 3.4 Options Market and Futures - Stock Relationship - **Options market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money jujube options this week is presented in the report, but no specific data is summarized here - **Stock market - Haoxiangni**: The report shows the price - to - earnings ratio chart of Haoxiangni, but no specific analysis data is summarized here

Group 1: Precious Metals - Silver prices surged by 6.6%, reaching a new historical high, while platinum increased by over 9%, hitting the limit up during trading [2] - The decline in silver warehouse receipts over three consecutive days indicates strong demand, supporting the upward movement in silver prices [2] - The geopolitical uncertainty and continued loose monetary policies from major economies have led to increased investment in silver ETFs, further boosting silver prices [2] Group 2: Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper prices rose by over 3%, reaching a historical high, while alumina saw a significant increase of 5.6%, hitting the limit up during trading [4] - The global copper supply remains tight, raising concerns about potential impacts on the smelting sector, despite weak domestic demand [4] - The influx of 2.6 billion in capital into the non-ferrous metals sector, with 1.7 billion specifically targeting copper, indicates strong investor interest [6] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices increased significantly, with the main contract rising by over 8%, driven by market news [3] Group 4: Trading Volume and Market Activity - Overall trading activity in the futures market has increased, with silver maintaining the highest trading volume at 2.88 million contracts [11] - Alumina's trading volume surged to 1.97 million contracts, reflecting heightened market interest following recent price increases [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoint - Imported corn is rapidly increasing, and import auctions address concerns about the shortage of high - quality grains due to grain quality differentiation. Corn sales may slow down in the later stage. Corn is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended that grain - using enterprises purchase spot goods as needed and maintain a safe reserve, while traders should buy low and sell high [5]. 3. Summary of Each Part Market Price and Basis - The corn main 2603 contract rebounded after a short - term continuous adjustment. The spot price was stable, with the Pingcang price of corn in Bayuquan at 2,290 yuan/ton and the arrival price of corn at Shekou Port dropping from 2,430 yuan/ton to 2,420 yuan/ton. The corn basis fluctuated and strengthened slightly, and the discount of the futures price widened. The starch main 2603 contract stabilized and rebounded. The starch price of Weifang Jinyu was 2,800 yuan/ton, and the basis fluctuated [3]. Supply - related Factors - **New Grain Sales**: Imported corn invitation - bidding sales continued, curbing the bullish sentiment in the market and reducing the enthusiasm of downstream procurement. New grain sales were still relatively fast, but slowed down in some areas. As of December 25, the national grain sales progress was 45%, 4% faster than the same period last year; in Northeast China, it was 44%, 8% faster; in North China, it was 40%, 1% slower; in Northwest China, it was 61%, the same as last year. With the auction of imported corn and the approaching of holidays, the grain sales progress slowed down [3]. - **Inventory**: As of December 19, the corn inventory in northern ports was 1.803 million tons, slightly increasing month - on - month and significantly lower than the same period last year; the weekly shipping volume was 827,000 tons, rising to a high in recent years. The domestic - trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 224,000 tons, and the foreign - trade corn inventory was 278,000 tons, both increasing month - on - month due to a large increase in imports. The inventories of downstream deep - processing and feed enterprises continued to increase. As of December 26, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 3.378 million tons, continuously rising but lower than the same period last year; the corn inventory of feed enterprises was 29.88 days, slightly decreasing month - on - month [3]. - **Import**: The wheat - corn price difference remained at a high level, making substitution unfeasible. In November, China's corn imports increased significantly again. According to customs data, 555,000 tons of corn were imported in November, a 55% month - on - month increase and an 85% year - on - year increase; from January to November, the cumulative import volume was 1.847 million tons, a 86.3% year - on - year decrease. Imports of barley and wheat also increased. The increase in domestic corn imports and auctions supplemented the market's expectation of a shortage of high - quality grains, and imports may continue to increase in the later stage [4]. - **External Market**: The U.S. corn in the external market rebounded recently. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's December supply - demand report increased U.S. corn exports and reduced its ending inventory, but overall, there was still pressure of increased production and inventory compared with last year. The global ending inventory of corn was slightly reduced, a 4.85% year - on - year decrease [4]. Demand - related Factors - **Feed Demand**: The pig price was low, and pig farming continued to suffer large losses. As of December 26, the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was - 162.8 yuan per head, and the loss continued to narrow; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 130.11 yuan per head, and the loss also narrowed. The production capacity of sows continued to decline. In October, the national inventory of sows was 39.9 million, 450,000 less than the previous month, and the reduction rate increased. In November, large - scale farms reduced the inventory of sows, the sales volume of piglets declined, but the inventory of commercial pigs increased. It was difficult for the pig inventory to decline in the fourth quarter. In the poultry sector, the egg price was low, and poultry farming continued to suffer losses; in November, the sales volume of chicken chicks stabilized, and the culling of old chickens continued to increase; in November, the inventory of laying hens decreased slightly again. Feed demand may slow down. In November, the national industrial feed output was 28.73 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing 6% year - on - year. If losses continue in the later stage, it may affect spring replenishment and accelerate capacity reduction [5]. - **Deep - processing Demand**: The demand of deep - processing enterprises was insufficient. The operating rate of starch processing enterprises continued to decline. As of December 26, the operating rate of starch processing enterprises was 60.46%, continuing to decline month - on - month. The starch inventory was 1.102 million tons, increasing month - on - month. Alcohol processing enterprises continued to suffer losses, and the operating rate dropped to 65.02%. The operating rate of downstream starch sugar enterprises rebounded, and the operating rate of paper - making enterprises was relatively strong [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Carbonate Lithium, BR Rubber, PTA [1] - **Bearish**: Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Sugar [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Gold, Platinum, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferroalloy, Glass, Coke, Coking Coal, Lumber, Cotton, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Bitumen, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Benzene, Naphtha, Propylene, Butadiene, Container Shipping to Europe [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment and liquidity are in a good state, with the short - term stock index breaking through the previous oscillation range and expected to remain strong. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as industry fundamentals, macro - sentiment, and policy changes [1]. Summaries by Categories Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The short - term stock index has broken through the previous oscillation range and is expected to remain strong as the market sentiment and liquidity are good [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank has warned of short - term interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The industrial situation is weak recently, and the macro - sentiment is fluctuating, leading to high - level oscillations in copper prices [1]. - **Aluminum**: The driving force in the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited, and the macro - sentiment is fluctuating, resulting in oscillating aluminum prices [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic fundamentals are weak, and the short - term price remains low [1]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, with the cost center rising. Most of the recent negative factors have been realized, and the zinc price is expected to oscillate strongly as market risk appetite improves [1]. - **Nickel**: The global nickel inventory is high, but due to supply concerns, the Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently. The Indonesian policy has not been implemented but is difficult to disprove in the short term. The short - term nickel price may oscillate strongly. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains in an oversupply situation [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material nickel - iron price has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Tin**: The non - ferrous tin industry association has issued an initiative, causing the short - term tin price to oscillate weakly. Considering the tense situation in Congo and the improved market risk appetite, low - buying opportunities are recommended [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Gold**: Overseas markets are in the Christmas holiday, and the strong US economic data has weakened the expectation of interest - rate cuts. After reaching a new historical high, the gold price may oscillate at a high level in the short term [1]. - **Platinum**: The domestic platinum futures price has a large premium over the spot price and foreign markets, with large expected fluctuations. Rational participation is recommended [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production in the northwest has increased while that in the southwest has decreased. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon have decreased in December [1]. - **Polysilicon**: A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation has increased marginally in the fourth quarter, large manufacturers are eager to maintain prices but reluctant to deliver goods, and the short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, the energy - storage demand is strong, the supply side has increased production resumption, and the price has exceeded the previous high. Short - term long - position operations are recommended [1]. Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high. Short - selling is not recommended. The near - term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the far - term contracts still have upward potential [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but with good commodity sentiment, the far - term contracts have upward opportunities [1]. - **Glass and Glass Products**: They follow the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand conditions and low valuation. The downward space is limited, and they may oscillate under pressure [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Affected by the domestic major meeting and export policy, the black - sector has declined. After the announcement of the steel - export licensing system, there are signs of stabilization. Attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and the winter - storage replenishment by downstream enterprises [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Although the high - frequency data has improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of a loose supply in the producing areas. Rebound - shorting is recommended [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: It is affected by the decline in the CBOT market and other domestic oils, showing a weak trend [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The short - term positive factors of raw - material shortage are expected to be exhausted, and there is an expectation of a good harvest in the global main producing areas. Short - selling the 05 contract is recommended [1]. - **Cotton**: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, but there is currently no driving force. Future attention should be paid to the government's policies, planting - area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - **Sugar**: There is a consensus among short - sellers due to the global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous fundamental driving force in the short term [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Affected by snow and rain in the producing areas, the supply is affected, but the spot price is relatively stable. Farmers are reluctant to sell, and downstream enterprises are cautious. There is a certain replenishment demand before the Spring Festival [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: There is an expectation of a good harvest of soybeans, and the later discount is expected to face selling pressure. Recently, the market has oscillated following reserve - related rumors [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between weak demand and strong supply expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side operations and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the spread [1]. - **Logs**: Affected by the decline in foreign - market quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure as it approaches the delivery month and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement has an impact, and the US has imposed sanctions on Venezuelan crude - oil exports [1]. - **Bitumen**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The cost of raw materials provides strong support, the futures - spot price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may start to accumulate [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The trading volume of butadiene has improved, the cost has increased, the operating rate of butadiene rubber is high, and there are rumors of a factory shutdown in South Korea, leading to a strong market sentiment [1]. - **PTA**: The PX price is strong, the PTA device is operating at a high load, the pre - festival stocking and sales of polyester have improved, and the consumption of PTA remains high [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, are planned to shut down next month. The ethylene - glycol price has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and the demand from the polyester downstream is better than expected [1]. - **Benzene and Naphtha**: There is some support from the cost side, the spot - market sentiment has warmed up slightly, and the total inventory remains high without significant de - stocking [1]. - **Propylene**: The export sentiment has eased slightly, the upward space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, and there is support from anti - involution and the cost side. The maintenance has decreased, the supply has increased, and the downstream demand has weakened. There is an expectation of oversupply in 2026 [2]. - **Butadiene**: The trading volume has improved, and the cost has increased, providing support for downstream products [1]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase in December was lower than expected, the expectation of price increase in the peak season was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply was relatively loose in December [2].

Core Viewpoint - Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 3% in the period from December 1 to December 25, reaching 1,017,897 tons compared to 987,978 tons in the same period last month [1] Group 1 - The export volume of palm oil from Malaysia for the specified period was 1,017,897 tons [1] - The increase in export volume reflects a positive trend in the palm oil industry [1]

Oil - The external market was closed due to the Christmas holiday, while domestic oil prices fluctuated. Russian Black Sea port attacks and adverse weather have slowed repair progress, leading to a 14-month low in Kazakhstan's December CPC mixed oil exports. Despite a decline in drilling and fracturing activities in the US shale oil industry, US crude oil production remains high due to production adjustments lagging behind. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela have raised concerns about oil supply disruptions, but the overall market fundamentals remain loose, suggesting a shift in market focus from geopolitical issues to a long-term supply-demand balance that may lead to a downward adjustment in price levels [1]. Precious Metals - The external market was closed for Christmas, while domestic gold and silver continued a strong trend. The adjustment of minimum opening quantities and trading limits by the Guangqi Exchange has occurred. The prospect of Federal Reserve easing and geopolitical risks have supported the strength of precious metals, with various types reaching new highs, leading to increased market volatility and the need for position control [2]. Copper - The Shanghai copper night market opened high, briefly rising to 98,000. Domestic spot divergence signals have strengthened, with Shanghai and Guangdong discounts expanding to 330 and 185 yuan respectively. SMM social warehouse increased by 25,200 tons to 193,600 tons. Short-term domestic supply and demand pressures may lead to greater adjustment pressure on copper prices, but tight raw material supply may transmit to domestic refined copper, benefiting exports. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions or adjust the holding position to 95,000 [3]. Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum market showed a strong fluctuation. The fundamental contradictions in the aluminum market are limited, with social warehouses fluctuating narrowly and apparent demand year-on-year being weak, leading to an expansion of spot discounts. The macro sentiment continues to drive precious metals and various non-ferrous metals to new highs, with Shanghai aluminum primarily following the upward trend and testing previous high resistance levels [4]. Alumina - Alumina production capacity is at a historical high, with a persistent oversupply situation and rising industry inventories. The average complete cost in Shanxi and Henan is 2,850-2,900 yuan, while the spot index has dropped to around 2,700 yuan, indicating profitability at cash cost calculations. A Guinea mining company has lowered its first-quarter long-term contract price by $5, suggesting potential for cost reduction in alumina. The weak trend in alumina is expected to continue before any significant production cuts, with a larger basis for spot price declines [5]. Zinc - Shanghai zinc operates independently with narrow fluctuations, supported by a strong bottom. The domestic consumption outlook for January is not pessimistic, and the price range is expected to rise from December, projected between 22,800-23,800 yuan/ton [7]. Lead - The market remains at a low level, with domestic aluminum social inventories below 20,000 tons and trading activity being average. The import window remains open, with overseas pressure continuing to transmit to the domestic market. Shanghai aluminum is still in a cost and consumption tug-of-war, with a price range expected between 17,000-17,500 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market has seen a pullback, with active trading and significant stop-losses leading to market consolidation. Recent news from the Indonesian nickel ore conference has sparked market interest, with a significant reduction in nickel ore quotas for 2026. Current spot prices for high nickel iron are at 888 yuan per nickel point, with upstream price rebounds weakening support, leading to a cautious short-term outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and rose, with active market trading. Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices exceeded 110,000 yuan, with a price difference of 2,650. Despite high prices, market confidence in maintaining these levels is low, leading to limited trading enthusiasm. Total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 110,400 tons, with downstream inventory also declining. The latest Australian mining price is $1,385, maintaining strong pricing. The overall market fundamentals for lithium carbonate remain strong, with short positions under pressure [11]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures surged above 60,000 yuan/ton. Expectations for tighter industry production quotas in 2026 and collective production cut plans from some companies have strengthened market sentiment. Current mainstream transaction prices are stable between 51,000-53,000 yuan/ton, primarily driven by replenishment demand. Recent increases in silver prices have pushed up non-silicon costs for battery cells, with pressures transmitted upward. The market is advised to monitor the effectiveness of breaking through the 60,000 yuan/ton level [12]. Steel - Steel prices continued to decline, with a slight drop in rebar demand and a small increase in production. Hot-rolled demand is recovering, with inventory reduction accelerating. Iron water production continues to decline, gradually alleviating supply pressure, while steel mill profits are marginally improving. The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with limited rebound momentum expected [13][14]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices fluctuated overnight, with strong global shipments expected as year-end mine output increases. Domestic port arrivals are also strong, leading to significant inventory accumulation. Demand remains low in the off-season, but previous reductions in iron water production have stabilized prices. The overall fundamentals for iron ore are loose, with short-term price movements expected to remain volatile [14]. Urea - Urea production companies are significantly reducing inventory, leading to improved market sentiment and transactions. Daily production continues to decline due to environmental restrictions, with slight adjustments in industrial downstream demand. The short-term market for urea is expected to strengthen [22]. Methanol - Methanol prices slightly declined overnight due to recovering import unloading speeds and weakening inland demand, leading to significant port inventory accumulation. The overall market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with potential upward drivers in the medium to long term [23]. PX & PTA - PX prices continue to rise, with PTA following suit. Short-term PX supply is expected to increase due to plant restarts, while downstream demand may decline around the Spring Festival. Overall, the strong expectations for PX remain, with limited upward space in the short term [28].

| 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周四，ICE 美棉因圣诞假期休市，郑棉主力合约环比上涨 0.74%，报收 14255 元/ 吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 20504 手至 83.51 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 15000 减落地是大概率事件。情绪推动下，郑棉主连最高触及 14265 元/吨。基本面来看， | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 90 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期郑棉期价重心震荡上行。我 | | | | 们认为，预期偏强是近期行情驱动的主要因素之一，近期市场上关于明年新疆地 | 偏强震 | | | 区植棉面积调控的声音较强，新疆维吾尔自治区棉花协会已经发布相关通告，调 | | | | | 荡 | | | 短期郑棉多空因素交织，后续关注点，一是消费表现能否持续，下游纺织企业春 | | | | 节前是否会有新一轮补库需求；二是明年一季度，宏观层面是否会降准降息，以 | | | | 及通常在 4 月 10 号左右公布的新一轮棉花目标价格补贴政策细则。我们认为，短 | | | | 期郑棉在情绪驱动下有一定支撑，中长期棉价上方空间大于下方空间。 ...

Core Insights - The overall price of essential goods in Qingdao remains stable, with sufficient reserves and no significant price fluctuations reported [1] Price Trends - Rice prices have decreased, with the average retail price for first-grade long-grain rice at 3.25 yuan per 500 grams, down 1.22% from the previous day [1] - Peanut oil (5-liter bottle) is priced at 133.20 yuan, and flour (special grade) remains at 2.35 yuan, both unchanged from the previous day [1] - Meat prices show slight fluctuations, with pork belly increasing by 1.30% to 13.83 yuan, and lean pork rising by 0.62% to 14.57 yuan. Beef has decreased by 2.11% to 37.59 yuan, while lamb remains stable at 41.14 yuan [1] Egg and Vegetable Prices - Egg prices are stable, averaging 3.62 yuan, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Vegetable prices are also stable, with a wholesale price of 2.50 yuan, and a 1.63% increase in transaction volume at wholesale markets compared to the previous day [1] Seafood Prices - Seafood prices are generally stable, with average prices for various products such as hairtail at 15 yuan, mackerel at 10.33 yuan, and shrimp at 34 yuan, all remaining unchanged from the previous day [1]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report mainly presents the warehouse receipt data of various agricultural products, including the historical trends and the latest values, week-on-week, month-on-month, and year-on-year changes of warehouse receipt quantities for products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, sugar, cotton, live pigs, and corn [3][4][5][6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Warehouse Receipt Data Overview - The report shows the warehouse receipt quantities of multiple agricultural products over different time periods, with data sources from Guotai Junan Futures, Steel Union, Wind, and Flush [3][4][5]. Latest Warehouse Receipt Quantities and Changes - The latest warehouse receipt quantity of soybean meal is 24,830.0 hands, with a 4% week-on-week increase, a -28.7% month-on-month decrease, and a 28% year-on-year increase [6]. - The latest warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed meal is 0.0 pieces, with no valid percentage changes provided [6]. - The latest warehouse receipt quantity of soybean oil is 28,264.0 hands, with an 8% week-on-week increase, a 14.8% month-on-month increase, and a 104% year-on-year increase [6]. - The latest warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 3,786.0 pieces, with a -5% week-on-week decrease, a -4.6% month-on-month decrease, and an 11% year-on-year increase [6]. - The latest warehouse receipt quantity of palm oil is 260.0 hands, with a -73% week-on-week decrease, an infinite month-on-month increase (inf%), and a -48% year-on-year decrease [6]. - The latest warehouse receipt quantity of sugar is 5,038.0 pieces, with a 725% week-on-week increase, a -34.5% month-on-month decrease, and a -45% year-on-year decrease [6]. - The latest warehouse receipt quantity of live pigs is 863.0 hands, with a 5% week-on-week increase, an infinite month-on-month increase (inf%), and a -1% year-on-year decrease [6]. - The latest warehouse receipt quantity of No. 1 cotton is 4,626.0 pieces, with a 28% week-on-week increase, a 99.5% month-on-month increase, and a 79% year-on-year increase [6]. - The latest warehouse receipt quantity of corn is 51,450.0 hands, with a -3% week-on-week decrease, a -22.5% month-on-month decrease, and a -41% year-on-year decrease [6]. - The total warehouse receipt quantity (in hands) is 119,117.0, with a 5% week-on-week increase, an -18.3% month-on-month decrease, and a -13% year-on-year decrease [6].