1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, the supply is expected to remain ample, demand will continue to decline, and prices will face continuous pressure. It's recommended to short the soda ash main contract on rallies, and the current decline might not end [2]. - For glass, the probability of a correction has increased, but the decline is expected to be limited. It's also recommended to short on rallies [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main - contract closing price is 1,247 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan; glass main - contract closing price is 1,117 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan [2]. - Soda ash main - contract trading volume is 974,024 lots, down 109,991 lots; glass main - contract trading volume is 142,138 lots [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net long position is - 344,377 lots, down 14,009 lots; glass top 20 net long position is - 215,547 lots, down 19,125 lots [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 1,500 tons, up 145 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 0 tons [2]. - Soda ash September - January contract spread is - 83 yuan, up 6 yuan; glass September - January contract spread is - 129 yuan, down 4 yuan [2]. - Soda ash basis is - 11 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; glass basis is 1 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China heavy soda ash is 1,375 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash is 1,325 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash is 1,275 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shahe glass sheets are 1,192 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets are 1,230 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 83.02%, down 1.08 percentage points; float - glass enterprise operating rate is 75%, down 0.34 percentage points [2]. - Glass in - production capacity is 15.89 million tons/year, up 0.11 million tons; glass in - production line number is 223, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory is 1.7836 million tons, down 81,000 tons; glass enterprise inventory is 61.896 million weight boxes, down 3.043 million weight boxes [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Multiple important meetings and events took place, including the Politburo meeting, the meeting between Wang Yi and the US - China Business Council delegation, etc. Also, the central government will set up a "child - rearing subsidy fund" with a preliminary budget of about 90 billion yuan this year [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash: Supply is ample, demand will decline, and prices will be under pressure. The decline is not over, and it's recommended to short on rallies [2]. - Glass: Supply shows signs of rigid production, and the industry profit has improved. However, the real - estate situation is not optimistic, and the probability of a correction has increased. It's recommended to short on rallies, but the decline amplitude is expected to be limited [2].

Group 1: Market Overview - The commodity market sentiment has significantly declined, with major futures contracts opening lower on July 31, leading to substantial drops in popular products like coking coal, glass, and soda ash, with declines exceeding 5% [1][2] - The Wenhua Commodity Index fell nearly 1.5% in early trading, with notable declines in black series products and the glass sector, which saw a drop of over 8% by the end of the trading day [2][4] Group 2: Specific Commodity Performance - Coking coal futures hit the limit down, closing at 1045.5 yuan/ton, while glass futures dropped 8.22% to 1117 yuan/ton, and silicon iron fell 6.62% [2][4] - The three major products in the photovoltaic industry chain, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon, experienced significant declines, with polysilicon dropping 7.81% to 49130 yuan/ton and lithium carbonate down 4.66% to 68280 yuan/ton [4][5] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Coking coal supply is stabilizing with upstream coal mine inventories at reasonable levels, while demand from coking enterprises remains strong despite current production losses [3][5] - The photovoltaic industry is facing a deep adjustment, with polysilicon production rates at historical lows of 30-40%, leading to an improved supply situation, while lithium carbonate faces pressure from increasing inventories despite stable domestic production [5][6] Group 4: Regulatory and Policy Impact - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has reiterated its commitment to "anti-involution" policies, which may support the market but have led to a cooling of speculative demand [6] - Recent adjustments by the exchange on margin requirements and trading limits for major contracts aim to curb speculative trading and manage market risks [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market sentiment has significantly declined, with major declines observed in various popular products, particularly in the black series and photovoltaic industry chain products [1][2]. Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - On July 31, domestic futures opened lower, with many popular products experiencing declines exceeding 5%, including焦煤 (coking coal), 玻璃 (glass), and 纯碱 (soda ash) [1][2]. - The 文华商品指数 (Wenhua Commodity Index) fell nearly 1.5% in the morning session, with significant drops in焦煤 (coking coal), 玻璃 (glass), and other black series products [2]. - By the afternoon, the index dropped over 2%, with glass and silicon iron hitting their daily limit down [2]. Group 2: Black Series Products -焦煤 (coking coal) saw its main contract hit the limit down, closing at 1045.5 yuan/ton, while other black series products like焦炭 (coke) and螺纹钢 (rebar) also experienced significant declines of 4.93% and 4.19%, respectively [2]. - The supply side for焦煤 (coking coal) is stabilizing, with upstream coal mine inventories returning to reasonable levels and production recovering [3]. Group 3: Photovoltaic Industry Chain - The three major products in the photovoltaic industry chain, including碳酸锂 (lithium carbonate), 工业硅 (industrial silicon), and 多晶硅 (polysilicon), experienced deep corrections, with declines of 6% and more [4]. - By the end of trading,多晶硅 (polysilicon) fell 7.81% to 49,130 yuan/ton, while industrial silicon and lithium carbonate also saw significant drops [4]. - The overall production of多晶硅 (polysilicon) is expected to approach 110,000 tons, with a significant increase anticipated in August [4]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The recent decline in market sentiment is attributed to the "anti-involution" policy and macroeconomic factors, with investors awaiting further policy guidance [2][5]. - The market is expected to maintain a wide range of fluctuations, with cautious trading strategies recommended for多晶硅 (polysilicon) and碳酸锂 (lithium carbonate) due to ongoing pressures in the supply-demand balance [5][6]. - Regulatory measures have been implemented to limit speculative trading in industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, which may help mitigate market risks [5][6].

Group 1 - The glass futures market is experiencing a significant decline, with the main contract dropping by 6.90% to 1133.00 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] - The macroeconomic sentiment is influenced by expectations surrounding the "anti-involution" policy, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology indicating that a growth stabilization plan for ten key industries, including steel and construction materials, is forthcoming [1] - Supply pressures are increasing due to planned production cuts by photovoltaic glass companies, leading to a decrease in daily melting volume and contributing to higher inventory levels in the industry [1] Group 2 - The current real estate market remains weak, impacting downstream processing orders and leading to a focus on essential purchases, with automotive glass manufacturers unable to offset the weak demand from real estate [1] - Short-term outlook for glass prices is expected to be volatile, with a significant pullback following initial macro policy boosts, and inventory levels are decreasing primarily due to procurement by market participants [2] - For a sustained price increase in the medium to long term, substantial policy changes in the real estate sector are necessary, as continued weak demand would require ongoing supply reductions to create upward price momentum [2]

短期风险对冲只能解燃眉之急，行业真正的可持续发展仍需依赖基本面的实质性改善。 当前政策预期为市场注入短期情绪动力，但要实现从"预期回暖"到"实质反转"的跨越，还需三大支撑： 政策细则的精准落地，包括老旧装置退出清单的明确、环保技改补贴的兑现；下游需求的企稳回升，既 需要房地产竣工面积的实际增长，也依赖光伏装机规模的持续扩大；产能结构的深度优化，推动高成本 产能加速出清与天然碱法替代进程。 王铭之表示，市场终将回归理性，能穿越周期的永远是务实者。"在行业洗牌中脱颖而出的企业，往往 是那些在狂热时保持冷静、在悲观时提前布局的市场主体。"他说。 "反内卷"政策为玻璃、纯碱市场注入的并非简单的价格上涨动力，而是倒逼产业升级的转型契机。这轮 由政策预期推动的市场行情，既暴露了行业长期存在的供需失衡、产能结构僵化等深层问题，也推动企 业在波动中探索更理性的生存法则。在政策预期与市场现实的持续博弈中，玻璃、纯碱企业正从短期风 险管理到长期产业转型，逐步勾勒出"反内卷"背景下的破局路径。 政策暖风下的市场波动，让风险管理成为企业生存的"必修课"。调研中期货日报记者发现，利用期货期 权等工具管理风险已成为行业共识，为企业筑起了 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market expectations of glass and soda ash are fluctuating, with intensified intraday volatility. The long - term supply - demand of glass remains relatively loose, and attention should be paid to the industry's capacity reduction. For soda ash, there is a risk of increased inventory pressure in the later stage [2]. - The sentiment in the ferrosilicon and silicomanganese alloy market has weakened, and prices are oscillating. The long - term supply - demand of ferrosilicon remains relatively loose, which suppresses enterprise profits [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: Futures fluctuated with far - month contracts rising more than near - month ones. The main 2509 contract rose 0.76%. Spot market transactions were cautious. Supply did not shrink, real - estate dragged down rigid demand, speculative demand increased, and inventory continued to decline but remained high [2]. - Soda ash: Futures fluctuated with far - month contracts rising more than near - month ones. The main 2509 contract rose 0.46%. Light and heavy alkali sales prices varied, and downstream buyers mainly replenished inventory at low prices for rigid demand. Supply was at a high level and in the summer maintenance stage, with relatively restrained capacity release. Later, capacity may further increase. The photovoltaic industry has production - cut expectations, and soda ash consumption may weaken, increasing inventory pressure [2]. - **Strategy** - Glass: Oscillate weakly [3]. - Soda ash: Oscillate weakly [3]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Analysis** - Silicomanganese: The main futures contract fell 0.42%. Raw material prices rose, some miners did not quote. Alloy enterprise profits improved, production increased slightly month - on - month. Iron - water production was relatively high, and demand was resilient. Due to sufficient capacity, production can quickly increase when profits improve [4]. - Ferrosilicon: The main futures contract rose 0.77%, closing at 6008 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased. Downstream procurement willingness was low. Supply increased month - on - month, warehouse receipts were relatively high, enterprise profits improved significantly, but long - term supply - demand remained loose, suppressing profits [4]. - **Strategy** - Silicomanganese: Oscillate weakly [5]. - Ferrosilicon: Oscillate weakly [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 ⿊⾊："反内卷"预期暂降温，⿊⾊价格回落 市场关注许久的重要会议尘埃落定，从定调上看虽然积极但相较于市 场趋于狂热的心态而言还是不及预期，黑色价格应声而落。不过我们 认为，在宏观大方向不变的基础上，不排除后续会议或政策再度形成 利好的可能。产业方面，尽管终端板块需求未看到明显转势，但目前 驱动核心点仍在于中间环节补库。中游心态较好，出货意愿不强， 现货价格较为坚挺。近期黑色波动加剧，宏观或仍有扰动，以低多思 路看待，后续进入旺季随着交易重心回到基本面有高位回落风险。 1、铁元素方面，从基本面来看，海外矿山发运环比回升，45港口到 港量下降，符合预期；需求端钢企盈利率增加明显，钢企铁水产量微 降，同比保持高位，支撑矿石需求。由于到港偏低、需求高位，铁矿 石45港小幅去库。铁矿基本面利空驱动有限，价格震荡运行。若市场 情绪再度升温，价格或震荡偏强。 2、碳元素方面，产地生产扰动仍存，供应端依然受限，整体供应缓 慢恢复。进口端，近几日蒙煤日均通关在千车以上，维持高位。焦炭 四轮提涨全面落地，焦企利润有所缓解，但仍有部分企业处于亏损状 态，产地焦企已开启第五轮提涨，同时 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][2][3][4][5] Core Views Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract opened higher and then followed the coking coal futures to fluctuate lower. Spot prices gradually increased by 100 - 200 yuan per ton. Considering potential policies and production - cut plans, prices may rebound. It is advisable to buy slightly out - of - the - money call options. Also, pay attention to the impact of environmental inspections on production and control positions in the 09 contract [1] Polysilicon - Although polysilicon prices have risen, the current reality does not support a significant price increase. Attention should be paid to future production - cut plans to reach supply - demand balance. When volatility is low, consider buying straddles/put options and control positions in the 09 contract [2] Glass and Soda Ash - The soda ash market is in an obvious oversupply situation, and there is no growth expectation for demand. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and upstream factory load regulation. The glass market is in the off - season, with weak demand. The industry needs capacity clearance, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and control risks [4] Logs - The log futures market is affected by weak demand and fluctuates repeatedly. Last week, inventory decreased, but this week's expected increase in arrivals will still put pressure on the spot market. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and policy expectations [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis - On July 30, the prices of various types of industrial silicon increased, with the price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon rising to 10,000 yuan per ton, a 2.04% increase; the basis also increased, with the basis of oxygen - passing SI5530 increasing by 58.89% [1] Inter - monthly Spreads - The spreads between different contracts changed significantly. For example, the spread between 2508 - 2509 increased by 90.91% [1] Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10% to 30.08 tons. Production in Xinjiang decreased by 20.55%, while production in Yunnan and Sichuan increased by 9.35% and 145.65% respectively. Organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and recycled aluminum alloy production all increased [1] Inventory Changes - Xinjiang and Yunnan's inventories increased, while Sichuan's inventory decreased. Social inventory decreased by 2.19% to 53.50 tons, and warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.47% [1] Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 44,500 yuan per ton. The basis of N - type material decreased by 90.59% [2] Futures Prices and Inter - monthly Spreads - The main contract of polysilicon opened higher and fluctuated up, with some contracts hitting the daily limit. The spreads between different contracts changed significantly, such as the spread between "continuous one - continuous two" decreasing by 76.00% [2] Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Weekly polysilicon production increased by 10.87% to 2.55 tons. Monthly polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 10.10 tons, imports increased by 16.59%, and exports increased by 5.96% [2] Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory decreased by 2.41% to 24.30 tons, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 11.55% [2] Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 increased slightly, and the 05 basis decreased by 16.95% [4] Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of soda ash in various regions remained unchanged. The price of soda ash 2505 increased slightly, while the price of soda ash 2509 decreased slightly, and the 05 basis decreased by 10.64% [4] Production and Sales Volumes - Soda ash production decreased by 1.28% to 72.38 tons, the float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.76% to 15.90 tons, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 1.47% to 90,490 tons [4] Inventory - Glass factory inventory decreased by 4.70% to 6189.00 ten - thousand cases, soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.15% to 186.46 tons, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 21.86% to 30.05 tons [4] Real Estate Data - New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50% [4] Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures fluctuated. The price of the 2509 contract decreased by 0.60% to 825 yuan per cubic meter. The spot prices of main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged [5] Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged, and the import theoretical cost remained unchanged [5] Supply (Monthly) - Port shipments increased by 2.12% to 176.0 ten - thousand cubic meters, and the number of departing ships decreased by 8.62% [5] Inventory (Weekly) - National log inventory decreased by 3.65% to 317.00 ten - thousand cubic meters [5] Demand (Weekly) - The average daily log出库 volume increased by 3% to 6.41 ten - thousand cubic meters [5]

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 7 月 31 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人| 屠强 耿佩璇 摘要 高频跟踪：工业生产表现分化，基建开工有所回暖，港口货运量仍在上行。 【工业生产】工业生产表现分化。 本周，高炉开工率同比小幅回升，录得1.2%。化工链生产有所回落， 纯碱、PTA开工同比分别-3.3pct至-6.0%、-1.2pct至-1.0%。汽车半钢胎开工仍不及去年同期，同比-0.2pct 至-3.3%。 【建筑业开工】建筑业开工表现分化。 本周，全国粉磨开工率同比-3.9pct至-6.2%；水泥出货率仍在低 位，同比-2.6pct至-3.0%。沥青开工率有所回升，同比+1.0pct至0.3%。 【下游需求】地产成交有所回升，港口货运量仍在上行。 本周，全国新房日均成交面积偏弱，同比 +20pct至-6.1%。货运方面，与出口相关的港口货物吞吐量、集装箱吞吐量回升，同比分别+5.2pct至 13.3%、+6.3pct至11.5% ；但集运价格延续回落、环比-3.2%。人流出行强度小幅回升，全国迁徙规模指 数同比+0.4pct至17.8%。国内执行航班架次同比+0.7pct至2.5%。 1. 生产高频跟踪：工业生产表现分化，基 ...