黑色建材日报 2025-09-26 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3167 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 3 元/吨（0.094%）。当日注册仓单 271422 吨, 环比增加 7616 吨。主力合约持仓量为 187.0449 万手，环比减少 11775 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3230 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3290 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3358 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 1 元/吨（0.029%）。 当日注册仓单 29204 吨, 环比减少 5355 吨。主力合约持仓量为 136.9716 万手，环比增加 1955 ...

政策扰动市场情绪，板块品种价格仍有 ⽀撑 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-09-23 昨⽇《钢铁⾏业稳增⻓⼯作⽅案（2025—2026年）》出台，强调" ⾏业增加值年均增⻓4%左右"和"严禁新增产能"，与现⾏的⾏业 增速以及市场预期⼀致，致使"反内卷"情绪再度降温，板块品种期 价受此影响⼩幅回调，夜盘时段围绕⽇盘低点震荡运⾏。但结合产业 链⾃⾝，保持旺季背景下的边际改善，叠加市场对于四季度重磅会议 仍有预期，因此板块品种价格仍有⽀撑。 昨日《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》出台，强调"行 业增加值年均增长4%左右"和"严禁新增产能"，与现行的行业增速 以及市场预期一致，致使"反内卷"情绪再度降温，板块品种期价受 此影响小幅回调，夜盘时段围绕日盘低点震荡运行。但结合产业链自 身，保持旺季背景下的边际改善，叠加市场对于四季度重磅会议仍有 预期，因此板块品种价格仍有支撑。 1、铁元素方面，铁矿发运回落、但仍维持高位水平，上周到港量因 前期台风扰动节奏而大幅增加，但当前我国海域再现台风影响，因此 预计到港量仍有扰动。反观铁矿需求保持高位水平，国 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the prices of finished products are showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The economic data in August slowed down and were lower than expected, increasing the possibility of more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales are still weak, and it will take time for the real - estate market to stabilize. The export volume decreased slightly last week and remains in a weak and volatile pattern. The demand for rebar is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively firm, and the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils have diverged. Steel mills' profits are gradually narrowing, and the weak characteristics of the market are becoming more prominent. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices still have the risk of decline. The raw material prices are relatively firm, and continuous attention should be paid to the possible disturbances caused by domestic and overseas macro - policies [3]. - The short - term iron ore price is expected to fluctuate. The overseas iron ore shipments have rebounded to the same - period high, the proximal arrival volume has decreased slightly, and the short - term demand support still exists. The steel mill profitability rate continues to decline, and the port and steel mill inventories have both increased slightly. The terminal data shows that the apparent demand for the five major steel products has increased to some extent, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The rebar data is weak, and the difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar has been strong recently. Attention should be paid to whether the internal contradictions of finished products will be transmitted to the raw material end [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the prices of their main contracts fluctuated higher on September 17. From a disk perspective, they are in a range - bound pattern. The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, mainly due to high - level supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. Ferrosilicon has no obvious contradictions and drivers in its supply - demand fundamentals. Both are likely to follow the trend of the black - sector market, and their operational cost - effectiveness is relatively low [8][9][11]. - The price of industrial silicon fluctuated and strengthened. The fundamentals of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand have not changed fundamentally. The short - term valuation is neutral. If the market continues to discuss topics such as "anti - involution", the price may rise further under the expected drive; otherwise, the weak fundamentals will limit the price increase. The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policy narratives. Before the actual progress of capacity integration, the disk price is prone to fluctuate with the ebb and flow of sentiment [13][14][16]. - For glass, the industry supply has increased slightly, and the enterprise inventory has decreased. The pre - holiday stocking has promoted inventory reduction, but the market supply is still abundant, and the terminal demand is weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish. For soda ash, the industry supply has contracted slightly, mainly due to the maintenance of production lines. Some downstream enterprises have pre - holiday stocking needs, but most are still purchasing based on rigid demand. The market trading atmosphere is tepid, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [18][19]. - Although the black - sector prices still have the risk of short - term phased decline under the influence of real - demand, in the face of the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary easing, and the opening of China's policy space after the US enters the interest - rate cut cycle, the black - sector may gradually have the cost - effectiveness of long - allocation in the future, and the key node may focus on the "Fourth Plenary Session" around mid - October [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: The closing price of the main rebar contract was 3168 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.063%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 6300 tons, and the position increased by 7123 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: The closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3390 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.35%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the position increased by 523 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 804.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.12% (+ 1.00), and the position increased by 2092 lots to 53.45 million lots. The weighted position was 84.05 million lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 43.25 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.10% [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Manganese Silicon**: On September 17, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) rose 0.77% to close at 5990 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5820 yuan/ton, with a basis of 20 yuan/ton [8]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main ferrosilicon contract (SF511) rose 1.16% to close at 5766 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 yuan/ton [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract (SI2511) was 8965 yuan/ton, up 0.56% (+ 50). The weighted contract position decreased by 2096 lots to 510223 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - permeable silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the basis was 135 yuan/ton; the 421 price was 9600 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 165 yuan/ton [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract (PS2511) was 53490 yuan/ton, down 0.34% (- 180). The weighted contract position decreased by 4424 lots to 289544 lots. The average prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were 49.5 yuan/kg, 51.05 yuan/kg, and 52.55 yuan/kg respectively, with a basis of - 940 yuan/ton [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: On Wednesday at 15:00, the main glass contract closed at 1234 yuan/ton, down 0.24% (- 3). The prices in North China and Central China were 1150 yuan and 1130 yuan respectively. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 146.7 million cases (- 2.33%). The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 12356 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 26149 lots [18]. - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday at 15:00, the main soda ash contract closed at 1334 yuan/ton, down 0.37% (- 5). The price in Shahe was 1239 yuan, down 5 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 2.46 million tons (- 2.33%), with the heavy - soda inventory decreasing by 3.74 million tons and the light - soda inventory increasing by 1.28 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders decreased their positions by 7884 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 13693 lots [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the prices of finished steel products are showing a weak trend. Although it's the traditional peak season, the demand for rebar remains weak, while the demand for hot-rolled coils still has some resilience. If the demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may continue to decline. The raw material end is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the possible disturbances caused by safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions [4]. - The price of iron ore is expected to continue its oscillatory trend. The short - term demand for iron ore is still supported, but the profit rate of steel mills is declining. It is necessary to observe the recovery of downstream demand and the speed of inventory reduction [7]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the trend of the black - sector market, with relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [12]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the short term. If the market continues to discuss furnace - type elimination and other related topics, the price may rise further; otherwise, the weak fundamentals will limit the price increase. The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policy narratives, and attention should be paid to capacity integration policies and downstream price - passing progress [16][17]. - The price of glass has limited room for adjustment, and the market still has expectations for policy support. The price of soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term and may gradually increase in the medium - to - long term, but the improvement of downstream demand is slow, which will limit its upward space [19][20]. - Although the black - sector prices may experience short - term corrective risks due to the current real - demand situation, in the face of the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary easing and the opening of China's policy space, the black - sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long - positions, and the key node may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Prices**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3127 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton (1.131%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3364 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.899%) from the previous trading day [3]. - **Market Conditions**: The export volume of steel has slightly rebounded but remains in a weak and oscillatory pattern. The apparent demand for rebar continues to be sluggish, with increasing inventory pressure. The output of hot - rolled coils has rebounded, with relatively good apparent demand and a slight reduction in inventory. The trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils are diverging [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Prices**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 799.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.50% (+4.00). The weighted holding volume was 85.84 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 794 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.95 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.32% [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Overseas iron ore shipments have significantly declined, and the near - end arrival volume has slightly decreased. The daily average pig - iron output has increased, and the short - term demand for iron ore is still supported. The profit rate of steel mills continues to decline, and both port and steel - mill imported ore inventories have slightly increased [7]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Prices**: On September 12, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.10% at 5832 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed down 0.32% at 5608 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Market Conditions**: The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. The supply - and - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions or drivers. Both are likely to follow the black - sector market [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Prices**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 8745 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.06% (+5). The weighted contract holding volume decreased by 11051 hands to 487604 hands [14]. - **Market Conditions**: The production capacity of industrial silicon is in surplus, with high inventory and insufficient effective demand. Although the production of downstream polysilicon and silicone DMC has increased, the overall inventory is still at a high level [15][16]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Prices**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 53610 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.19% (-100). The weighted contract holding volume decreased by 2557 hands to 301669 hands [16]. - **Market Conditions**: The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policy narratives. The overall inventory reduction space in the industry is limited, and the price is prone to fluctuations with changes in market sentiment [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Prices**: The spot price in Shahe was 1150 yuan, up 3 yuan from the previous day, and the spot price in Central China was 1110 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of national float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 146.7 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 2.33% month - on - month and 14.94% year - on - year [19]. - **Market Conditions**: The glass production has increased, but the inventory pressure has decreased. The downstream real - estate demand data has not improved significantly, but the market still has expectations for policy support [19]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Prices**: The spot price was 1197 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda - ash manufacturers decreased by 2.56 million tons, a decrease of 1.40% [20]. - **Market Conditions**: The downstream float - glass operating rate has increased, and the photovoltaic - glass operating rate has changed little. The soda - ash production is stable, and the inventory pressure has weakened. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term and may gradually increase in the medium - to - long term [20].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may not be able to maintain the current level, and the futures prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic [3]. - For iron ore, although the current supply - side pressure is not significant, attention should be paid to the subsequent shipping progress. If the terminal demand continues to weaken, the short - term iron ore price may be slightly adjusted [6]. - For ferrosilicon and manganese silicon, in the short - term disordered market environment affected by emotions, it is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively. Hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations [8]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to run weakly with fluctuations, and for polysilicon, it is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [14][16]. - For glass and soda ash, they are expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the long term, glass prices follow macro - emotions, and soda ash prices are affected by supply - side and market sentiment under the "anti - involution" logic [18][19]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3132 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.191%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3402 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (- 0.40%) from the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar demand decreased significantly this week, inventory accumulation speed increased. Hot - rolled coil demand rebounded significantly, and inventory accumulation speed slowed down. Both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are in a marginal upward state, with high production and insufficient demand [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (I2601) closed at 769.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.26% (- 2.00), and the position changed to 44.04 million hands [5]. - **Supply - Demand**: Overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals increased. The daily average pig iron output increased. Port inventories increased slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventories increased significantly. The apparent demand for five major steel products continued to weaken [6]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Prices**: On August 20, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed down 1.32% at 5836 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon main contract (SF511) closed down 0.99% at 5622 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Environment**: Affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment, the prices of related commodities, including ferrosilicon and manganese silicon, have dropped significantly. It is expected that the price will eventually return to the fundamentals after the sentiment fades [8]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (SI2511) closed at 8390 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.72% (- 235). The weighted contract position changed to 5.26445 million hands [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand remain. The operating rate is expected to rise in August, and the demand side can provide some support, but the price is expected to run weakly with fluctuations [14]. - **Polysilicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (PS2511) closed at 51875 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.74% (- 385). The weighted contract position changed to 3.37155 million hands [15]. - **Fundamentals**: The weekly output increased, and the inventory clearance speed was limited. The supply - demand situation is still weak. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Prices and Inventory**: On Wednesday, the spot price in Shahe was 1156 yuan, down 4 yuan from the previous day, and in Central China was 1060 yuan, down 30 yuan. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 2.55% [18]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, it follows macro - emotions, and the price may rise if there are substantial real - estate policies [18]. - **Soda Ash** - **Prices and Inventory**: The spot price was 1205 yuan, down 25 yuan from the previous day. As of August 18, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8973 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.18% [19]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the price center may gradually rise under the "anti - involution" logic, but the upward space is limited due to the supply - demand contradiction [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday's rebar apparent demand data fell short of expectations, and combined with coking coal position limits, the black sector continued its weakening trend. Although some coal mines are resuming production, supply may still contract due to ongoing inspections. There is a strong expectation of production restrictions before major events, which provides strong support for prices. Steel downstream inventory pressure is emerging, and the performance in the next few weeks needs attention. If there are macro - level positives before the inventory contradiction intensifies, there is a chance of resonance. In the near term, prices are expected to oscillate within the current range with limited downside [2]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports dropped to last year's level. Supply is relatively stable with no obvious increase [2]. - Demand: The profitability rate of steel enterprises decreased slightly but is still at a high level year - on - year. Pig iron production increased slightly, and it is less likely for steel enterprises to cut production in the short term due to profit reasons. Attention should be paid to the production restriction policy in the second half of the month [2]. - Inventory: Iron ore ports are accumulating inventory, the number of stranded ships is decreasing, steel enterprises are slightly replenishing inventory, and the total inventory is slightly increasing. The fundamental bearish driving force is limited, and the future price is expected to oscillate [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - Supply: In the main production areas, some coal mines have reduced production due to factors such as changing working faces and over - production inspections. Although some previously shut - down coal mines are gradually resuming production, short - term supply disruptions will continue. On the import side, the adjustment of the error threshold for the actual weight and declared weight of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port has led to a decline in the number of customs - cleared vehicles to around a thousand, and the decline in the mining capacity of the TT mining area has restricted coking coal transportation. Short - term Mongolian coal imports may be restricted [3]. - Demand: Coke production is temporarily stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Coal mines had many pre - sold orders before and have no obvious inventory pressure. After the exchange's position limit, market sentiment has declined, but the short - term futures market still has support under a healthy fundamental situation [3]. 3.3 Alloys - Manganese Alloy: The ex - works price of manganese ore has increased, the start - up rate of manganese - silicon manufacturers has rebounded, and there is support on the demand side for manganese ore. With the current acceptable port inventory pressure, the quotation center of manganese ore is gradually rising. In an environment of industry profit recovery, the resumption of production by manufacturers is continuing, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese - silicon may gradually become looser. Attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy related to specific production restriction requirements [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. However, in the future, the market supply - demand gap will tend to be filled, and there are still hidden concerns in the medium - to - long - term fundamentals. The upside price space is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs [3]. 3.4 Glass - Supply: There is still one production line waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory is slightly increasing, and the internal contradiction is not prominent, but there are many market sentiment disturbances [4]. - Demand: After the decline in the glass futures market, the sentiment in the spot market has declined, the mid - stream has increased shipments, and the upstream production and sales have declined significantly. Recently, the increase in coal prices has strengthened cost support, but the fundamentals are still weak. It is expected that the short - term futures and spot prices will oscillate widely [4]. 3.5 Soda Ash - Supply: The over - supply pattern has not changed, production is at a high level, and supply pressure still exists. Although there is no short - term production disturbance, production is expected to continue to increase [17]. - Demand: Heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid demand procurement. The daily melting volume of float glass is expected to be stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is expected to bottom out. The demand for heavy soda ash is flat. The downstream procurement of light soda ash is flat, but the overall downstream inventory replenishment sentiment is weak, and there is resistance to high prices. The sentiment affects the futures market, and the large month - to - month spread alleviates some delivery pressure, but the downstream's willingness to receive goods is weak. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [17]. 3.6 Specific Product Analyses 3.6.1 Steel - Core Logic: Speculative sentiment is poor, some futures - spot traders are selling, and terminal buyers are more cautious. Steel mill production is a mix of resumption and maintenance, and the output of rebar and hot - rolled coils has not changed much. Rebar inventory has increased significantly, and demand has continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil export orders have improved, and domestic demand has resilience, with inventory accumulation slowing down. The inventories of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled coils have increased, and the apparent demand of the five major steel products has declined, continuing the off - season characteristics [9]. - Outlook: The sentiment in the coking coal market has cooled, and the futures market has declined from its high. Currently, the steel fundamentals continue to weaken, but there may be disturbances in supply - demand and cost before the military parade. It is expected that the short - term futures market will oscillate widely. Attention should be paid to steel mill production restriction and terminal demand [9]. 3.6.2 Iron Ore - Core Logic: Port trading volume was 130.2 (+46) million tons. The price of the swap main contract was 102.64 (-0.87) US dollars per ton. Spot market prices fell by 7 - 15 yuan per ton, and port trading volume increased significantly. Supply is relatively stable, and demand is strong. Pig iron production increased, and inventory increased slightly [9]. - Outlook: Iron ore demand is at a high level, supply and inventory are stable, and the fundamental bearish driving force is limited. Future prices are expected to oscillate [10]. 3.6.3 Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The supply of scrap steel increased slightly week - on - week. The demand from electric furnaces increased to a new high this year, and the demand from blast furnaces also increased slightly. The factory inventory decreased slightly, and the available inventory days dropped to a relatively low level [11]. - Outlook: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both increasing, and the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. 3.6.4 Coke - Core Logic: The futures market sentiment has cooled, and the spot price has declined. After the sixth round of price increases was fully implemented, coke enterprise profits turned positive, and production increased slightly. Downstream steel mills are profitable and actively producing, and the demand for coke is strong. Although there is a large amount of inventory in the mid - stream, the supply - demand structure is still tight [13]. - Outlook: As the military parade approaches, there are continuous rumors of coke production restrictions. The supply - demand of coke will remain tight in the short term, and the futures market still has support. Attention should be paid to the possible impact of production restriction policies on coking and steel mills [13]. 3.6.5 Coking Coal - Core Logic: The futures market sentiment has declined after the exchange's position limit. Some coal mines have reduced production due to various reasons, and short - term supply disturbances will continue. Mongolian coal imports may be restricted. The demand for coking coal is strong, and coal mines have no obvious inventory pressure [14]. - Outlook: Due to the impact of over - production inspections, coking coal supply is expected to recover slowly. Although the sentiment has declined after the position limit, the short - term futures market still has support under a healthy fundamental situation [14]. 3.6.6 Manganese - Silicon - Core Logic: The manganese - silicon futures price followed the sector down after the significant decline in the coal - coke futures price. The spot price remained firm. The cost of manganese ore is rising, and the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser as manufacturers resume production. Attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy [17]. - Outlook: The current market inventory pressure is limited, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. However, the medium - to - long - term upside price space is limited [18]. 3.6.7 Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: After the market sentiment cooled and the coal - coke futures price dropped significantly, the ferrosilicon futures market weakened. The spot market is short of supply, and prices are firm. The supply is expected to increase as manufacturers resume production, and the demand is relatively stable. Attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy [19]. - Outlook: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. However, the medium - to - long - term fundamentals have hidden concerns, and the upside price space is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the coal market and electricity costs [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6]. Report's Core View - Yesterday, the news of coal mine production restrictions fermented again, driving up the futures prices. The fundamentals of the black industry have not changed significantly, and the inventory pressure at each link is not high. Before the important event, the production restriction time is approaching, and steel prices have strong support. Coal and coke supplies have not fully recovered, and inventories are being depleted, making prices susceptible to positive news. There may also be continuous influence from macro - positive news. Before the spot pressure appears, prices have room for further rebound. The futures prices have high volatility, and capital behavior dominates the market. It is recommended to wait and avoid risks, and focus on policy implementation and terminal demand [1][2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased as expected. The profitability rate of steel enterprises increased again, but steel production in some areas decreased due to rainfall, though it remained high year - on - year. Due to low arrivals and high demand, iron ore inventories at 45 ports, in port congestion, and at factories decreased. After the macro - sentiment cooled, iron ore prices dropped slightly, and it is expected to oscillate in the future [2]. Carbon Element - The overall supply is temporarily stable. The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week exceeded 1,200 vehicles, reaching a high for the year, and imports remained high. Coke production is stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Affected by the recent decline in futures prices, the wait - and - see sentiment of downstream and traders increased, and the spot market sentiment cooled. However, upstream coal mines still have many pre - sold orders and are reducing inventories. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal mine复产, and Mongolian coal imports [2]. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Coke prices have been continuously increasing, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. The manganese ore market has more wait - and - see sentiment, but traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, and port ore prices remain firm. Steel mills have good profits, and the output of finished steel remains high, so the downstream demand for manganese silicon is still resilient. However, as manufacturers' profitability improves, the复产 process continues, and the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser. Currently, the contradictions in the spot fundamentals are limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The output of silicon iron is expected to increase rapidly. The downstream steel - making demand is still resilient, and the current supply - demand relationship is healthy. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, following the performance of the sector [3]. Glass - In the off - season, glass demand declined, deep - processing orders decreased month - on - month, and the inventory days of original glass increased month - on - month, indicating speculative purchases by downstream. After the futures prices dropped, the spot market sentiment cooled, middle - stream sales increased, and upstream production and sales declined significantly. On the supply side, two production lines are yet to produce glass, and one line has been cold - repaired, with the overall daily melting expected to remain stable. Upstream inventories have decreased slightly, and there are no prominent contradictions, but market sentiment fluctuates a lot. Recently, the "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled, but it may recur. It is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term both in futures and spot [3][6]. Soda Ash - The oversupply situation of soda ash has not changed. After this round of negative feedback was triggered, prices dropped rapidly in the short term and are at a discount to the spot. It is expected to oscillate in the future. In the long run, the price center will decline, promoting capacity reduction [6]. Specific Products - **Steel**: The "anti - involution" sentiment in the steel and coal industries remains high. Driven by cost, the futures prices are firm. Spot steel sales are average. Last week, some steel mills had short - term maintenance and iron - water transfer, resulting in a decrease in rebar production and an increase in hot - rolled coil production. In the off - season, affected by typhoons, the apparent demand for rebar decreased, and inventories increased slightly; the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased, and inventories continued to accumulate. The supply - demand of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products fluctuated little, and the inventory of the five major steel products increased. Currently, steel inventories are low, and there are continuous production - restriction news before the parade. The fundamentals may improve, and with strong cost support, the futures prices are likely to rise. Attention should be paid to steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Port trading volume increased. From a fundamental perspective, overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, but the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly after the typhoon. The small - sample steel enterprise's iron - water production decreased slightly, and the daily consumption of imported sinter increased, remaining high year - on - year. The possibility of short - term production reduction due to profit reasons is small. Iron ore inventories at 45 ports increased compared to last week. The demand for iron ore is high, and there is an expectation of inventory depletion. The fundamental negative driving factors are limited, and prices are expected to oscillate [8][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The average price of crushed scrap in East China increased slightly. The output of rebar decreased slightly, inventories increased, and the apparent demand decreased, in line with off - season characteristics. In terms of supply, the market sentiment is optimistic this week, and the arrival volume of scrap steel has been decreasing. In terms of demand, the daily consumption of electric furnaces was high in some areas due to high profits in the early stage. Although the iron - water production of blast furnaces decreased, the price difference between iron and scrap narrowed, increasing the cost - effectiveness of scrap steel, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production increased significantly. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long and short - process production increased significantly. This week, the arrival volume increased significantly, and factory inventories increased slightly, with the available inventory days remaining slightly below normal. The supply and demand of scrap steel are both strong, and the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. Prices are expected to follow the finished steel [9]. - **Coke**: Futures prices followed coking coal and oscillated strongly. On the spot side, the price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port increased. After the fifth round of price increases was fully implemented, the profitability of coke enterprises improved, and production started to pick up, with coke production remaining stable. Downstream steel mills have good profits and are actively producing, and the iron - water production remains high. Upstream coke enterprises have smooth sales, and inventories are continuously decreasing. Middle - stream futures and spot traders are gradually releasing supplies, and the arrival of coke at downstream steel mills has improved. Currently, the supply - demand structure of coke is still tight, and prices still have short - term support. The fundamentals of coke are healthy. In the short term, with high iron - water production, its own driving force is weak, and prices are expected to follow coking coal and oscillate [10][11]. - **Coking Coal**: On the futures side, due to continuous news of over - production inspections at coal mines, the supply recovery is slow, and market sentiment has been boosted, with prices trending strongly. On the spot side, prices remained stable. On the supply side, the output of some coal mines is limited due to underground factors, and some coal mines have reduced their production in the second half of the year due to over - production inspections. The overall supply is slowly recovering. On the import side, the import of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port remains above 1,000 vehicles. On the demand side, coke production is stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. After the previous round of concentrated purchases, downstream enterprises are now purchasing on - demand. Upstream coal mines still have many pre - sold orders and are reducing inventories. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal mine复产, and Mongolian coal imports. Affected by over - production inspections, the supply recovery of coking coal is expected to be slow. With poor supply expectations, market sentiment has improved, and prices are expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall in the short term [11]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Driven by the strong coking coal futures prices, the central price of manganese silicon futures increased yesterday. On the spot side, manufacturers are more willing to hold prices, and spot prices have been continuously adjusted upwards. On the cost side, coke prices have been continuously increasing, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. The futures prices of manganese silicon are rising, and the overseas quotes are increasing, making manganese ore quotes firmer. In terms of supply and demand, steel mills have good profits, and the output of finished steel remains high. Hebei Iron and Steel's procurement volume in August increased compared to last month. However, as the industry's profitability improves, the manufacturers'复产 process continues, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" policy related to specific production - restriction requirements. Currently, the market fundamentals have limited contradictions, and in the short term, manganese silicon prices are expected to follow the sector. However, in the long - term, the difficulty of market inventory depletion will increase, and the upside potential of prices is not optimistic [14]. - **Silicon Iron**: Yesterday, the coking coal futures prices continued to be strong, and the market's expectation of the "anti - involution" policy increased, driving up the silicon iron futures prices. On the spot side, the prices of semi - coke and settlement electricity prices have increased significantly, and with the strong futures prices, spot prices have also increased. On the supply side, as the industry's profitability improves, manufacturers' enthusiasm for复产 increases, and the output of silicon iron is expected to increase rapidly. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" policy related to specific production - restriction requirements. On the demand side, steel output remains at a relatively high level, and the downstream steel - making demand is still resilient. Hebei Iron and Steel's procurement volume in August increased compared to last month. In the magnesium market, due to tight supplies, magnesium manufacturers are reluctant to lower prices, but the market trading atmosphere has cooled, and the game between upstream and downstream continues. Currently, the supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is healthy, and in the short term, prices are expected to follow the sector. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand gap may be filled, and the upside potential of prices should be viewed with caution. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamental situation of the black building materials market remains weak, and the futures price may gradually return to the real - trading logic. Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the terminal demand repair rhythm and the cost - side support for the finished product price need to be focused on [3]. - After the "anti - involution" sentiment is released, the market capital divergence increases, and the price is expected to gradually move closer to the real fundamentals. It is not recommended that speculative funds participate excessively, while hedging funds can seize the opportunity according to their own situation [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3203 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.06%) from the previous trading day, with a registered warehouse receipt of 85034 tons and a main contract position of 1.760703 million lots, down 55323 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3401 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.324%), with a registered warehouse receipt of 57174 tons and a main contract position of 1.45476 million lots, up 20824 lots [2]. - **Market Situation**: The rebar speculative demand decreased significantly with the price decline, resulting in inventory accumulation; the hot - rolled coil demand increased slightly, the output rose rapidly, and the inventory increased slightly. The current inventory levels of rebar and hot - rolled coil are at the lowest in the past five years [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 783.00 yuan/ton, up 0.51% (+ 4.00), with a position change of - 9550 lots to 410,000 lots. The weighted position was 943,800 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 768 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 32.81 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.02% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to rise, the FMG shipment volume increased significantly, the Brazilian shipment volume decreased slightly, and the non - mainstream country shipment volume dropped to a low level this year. The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly, the port inventory decreased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased slightly [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position**: On August 1st, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 0.27% at 5962 yuan/ton, and the main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 0.25% at 5682 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Situation**: Last week, the prices of both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fluctuated widely. It is recommended that investment positions be mainly on the sidelines, and hedging positions can participate opportunistically. Fundamentally, both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are facing the problems of over - capacity, weakening demand, and potential cost reduction [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed at 8500 yuan/ton, down 2.97% (- 260), with a position change of - 18592 lots to 194340 lots. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2509) closed at 49200 yuan/ton, up 0.14% (+ 70), with a position change of - 16227 lots to 110762 lots [13][14]. - **Market Situation**: Industrial silicon still has problems of over - supply and insufficient effective demand. After the "anti - involution" sentiment fades, the price may weaken. Polysilicon prices are affected by industry capacity integration expectations and enterprise price - holding strategies, and the short - term price may fluctuate widely [13][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory**: The spot price of glass in Shahe decreased by 22 yuan to 1245 yuan, and the national floating glass inventory decreased by 3.87% month - on - month. The spot price of soda ash was 1240 yuan, with a slight increase in inventory [17][18]. - **Market Situation**: Glass prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and follow macro - sentiment fluctuations in the long term. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term [17][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [7]. - The outlook for specific varieties is also mostly "oscillating", including steel, iron ore, coke, etc. [9][10][13] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the important meeting, although the tone is positive, it fails to meet the market's overly enthusiastic expectations, leading to a decline in black prices. However, as the previous bubble is squeezed out, there may be subsequent positive policies. The terminal demand has not shown an obvious turnaround, and the focus currently lies in the intermediate links. The market is volatile, and deep declines are not expected in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see to avoid risks, and focus on policy implementation and terminal demand performance in the future [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased. Steel mills' profitability has increased again, but iron water production has decreased in some areas due to rainfall, remaining at a high level year - on - year. Iron ore inventories at 45 ports, in berthing ships, and at mills have all decreased. With high demand and inventory reduction in the iron ore market, there is limited negative driving force in the fundamentals. After the macro - sentiment cools down, the price has slightly declined, and it is expected to oscillate in the future [2] Carbon Element - Some coal mines have resumed production, but production disturbances still exist, and overall supply is slowly recovering. The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port remains high. Coke production is temporarily stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Upstream coal mines are still reducing inventories. Affected by the recent decline in the futures market, the downstream and traders are more cautious. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent, and the short - term futures market is expected to be highly volatile [3] Alloys - The continuous increase in coke prices has strengthened the cost support for ferromanganese - silicon. The manganese ore market is more cautious, but traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, and port ore prices remain firm. The demand for ferromanganese - silicon from steel mills is still resilient, but as manufacturers resume production, the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser. The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is healthy, and both are expected to oscillate in the short term [6] Glass - In the off - season, glass demand has declined, deep - processing orders have decreased month - on - month, and the number of days of raw glass inventory has increased. After the futures market decline, the spot market sentiment has cooled down. The supply is expected to remain stable. The "anti - involution" sentiment may fluctuate, and the short - term futures and spot markets are expected to oscillate widely [6] Soda Ash - In the long term, the over - supply situation of soda ash is difficult to change. In the short term, the "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures market, but the delivery pressure is large. It is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, and the long - term price center will decline [6] Steel - After the Politburo meeting, the macro - trading has temporarily ended. There is a possibility of policy adjustment on the supply side and an increase in infrastructure steel demand. The export is expected to remain resilient. The actual implementation effect of steel mill production restrictions needs to be tracked. The steel market fundamentals are showing signs of weakening, and there is short - term downward pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [9] Iron Ore - Port transactions have decreased significantly. Overseas mine shipments have increased, and the arrival volume at ports has decreased. Steel mills' iron water production has decreased, and inventories have decreased. The fundamentals have limited negative driving force, and the price is expected to oscillate after a slight decline [10] Scrap Steel - The supply and demand of scrap steel have increased significantly. The inventory has slightly accumulated, and the price is expected to follow the trend of finished products [11] Coke - The futures market is oscillating weakly, and the spot price has decreased. Coke production is temporarily stable, and demand is still strong. The supply - demand structure is tight, and price increases are accelerating. The futures market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [13][14] Coking Coal - After the macro - meeting, the market sentiment has cooled down, and the futures market has declined significantly. The supply is slowly recovering, and demand is stable. The supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent, and the short - term futures market is expected to be volatile [13][14] Ferromanganese - Silicon - After the Politburo meeting, the macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the futures price has declined weakly. The supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [18] Ferrosilicon - The futures price has declined significantly due to the weakening of market sentiment. The supply is expected to increase, and demand is resilient. The supply - demand relationship is healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [19]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the overall fundamentals of the black building materials market remain weak, and the futures prices may gradually return to the real trading logic. The current static fundamental contradictions are not obvious, and the Politburo meeting has no new statements on real estate. It is expected that the policy direction will continue the previous strict control of incremental trends. Attention should be paid to the actual repair rhythm of terminal demand and the support strength of the cost side for product prices [3]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Price and Position Changes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,205 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton (-3.31%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 85,034 tons, with no change. The position of the main contract decreased by 213,107 lots to 1.816026 million lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,390 yuan/ton, down 93 yuan/ton (-2.67%). The registered warehouse receipts were 57,772 tons, with no change. The position of the main contract decreased by 139,278 lots to 1.433936 million lots [2]. - **Market Conditions**: The export competitiveness has weakened, and this week's export volume has significantly declined. Rebar speculative demand has decreased significantly, resulting in inventory accumulation; hot - rolled coil demand has slightly increased, production has risen rapidly, and inventory has slightly accumulated. Currently, the inventory levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at the lowest in the past five years [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Changes**: The main contract (I2509) of iron ore closed at 779.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.27% (-10.00), and the position changed by -32,551 lots to 419,600 lots. The weighted position was 942,000 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 764 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 32.41 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.99% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Overseas iron ore shipments continued to rise, with FMG shipments significantly increasing, Australian shipments increasing, Brazilian shipments slightly declining, and non - mainstream country shipments falling to a low level this year. The average daily molten iron output decreased by 1.52 tons to 2.4071 million tons. Port inventory decreased, and steel mill imported ore inventory slightly increased [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price Changes**: The spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 5,950 yuan/ton, with a basis of 194 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 5.19% at 5,696 yuan/ton. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 6,000 yuan/ton, with a basis of 304 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Suggestion**: The short - term price fluctuations of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have intensified. It is recommended that speculative positions wait and see. The fundamental outlook remains bearish, and enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: On July 31, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed down 5.65% at 8,760 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 9,550 yuan/ton, with a basis of 790 yuan/ton; the 421 market price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,150 yuan/ton, with a basis of 590 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market Suggestion**: It is expected that the short - term price will maintain high - volatility and wide - range fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see. The fundamentals are still oversupplied, and enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities [14]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe decreased by 8 yuan to 1,267 yuan, and in Central China, it remained unchanged at 1,230 yuan. The national floating glass inventory decreased by 2.397 million heavy boxes to 59.499 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 3.87% month - on - month and 13.88% year - on - year. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and follow macro - sentiment fluctuations in the long term [16]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price decreased by 60 yuan to 1,240 yuan. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased by 12,200 tons to 1.7958 million tons, an increase of 0.68%. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [18].