陈张滢 黑色建材日报 2025-12-31 黑色建材组 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3134 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 4 元/吨（0.127%）。当日注册仓单 58056 吨, 环比增加 2440 吨。主力合约持仓量为 156.0806 万手，环比增加 30014 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3300 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3282 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 5 元/吨（-0.15%）。 当日注册仓单 104588 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 128.3319 万手，环比增加 7022 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3260 元 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-12-30 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3130 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 12 元/吨（0.384%）。当日注册仓单 55616 吨, 环比减少 4826 吨。主力合约持仓量为 153.0792 万手，环比减少 3632 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比增加 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3300 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3287 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 4 元/吨（0.121%）。 当日注册仓单 104588 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 12 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-19 冬储预期配合供给扰动，盘⾯延续反弹 淡季供需双弱，其中螺纹钢基本⾯仍有韧性，热卷库存压⼒仍存，基 本⾯难⾔亮点，但冬储补库预期叠加成本⽀撑，盘⾯低位反弹。同时 冬储补库预期⽀撑下铁矿盘⾯表现较强，供给扰动⽀撑煤焦估值修复 反弹。玻纯盘⾯价格低位震荡，供需过剩格局下限制玻纯上⽅空间。 淡季供需双弱，其中螺纹钢基本面仍有韧性，热卷库存压力仍存，基 本面难言亮点，但冬储补库预期叠加成本支撑，盘面低位反弹。同时 冬储补库预期支撑下铁矿盘面表现较强，供给扰动支撑煤焦估值修复 反弹。玻纯盘面价格低位震荡，供需过剩格局下限制玻纯上方空间。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水继续下滑，刚需支撑减弱，港口库存累积，钢 厂补库需求仍未明显释放，短期矿价预计震荡运行。废钢供减需稳， 钢厂库存偏高，补库放缓，但电炉利润尚可，长、短流程钢企废钢需 求仍有支撑，预计现货价格震荡。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭现货短期虽仍有一轮补跌预期，但随着焦钢企 业原料冬储补库，成本端有望企稳，对现货价格提供支撑，盘面估值 仍有修复空间，预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。随着年关 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-12-08 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3157 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 18 元/吨（-0.56%）。当日注册仓单 44141 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 147.4541 万手，环比增加 62636 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3200 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3290 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3320 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 12 元/吨（-0.36%）。 当日注册仓单 113732 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, with finished steel prices showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Steel demand has officially entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils remains. Attention should be paid to the actual progress of the production reduction rhythm and the tone of important meetings [2]. - Iron ore prices are expected to move within a volatile range, and attention should be paid to the impact of changes in the overall commodity environment on prices. Although the overall inventory of iron ore is still high, there are still structural contradictions, and the spot has certain support [5]. - For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for positions to make a rebound rather than continue to short. The positive impact of a series of macro - events in December on market sentiment is still worth looking forward to [10]. - Industrial silicon is expected to run weakly in the short term, with a weak supply - demand pattern and limited marginal changes in the real - world situation. The price of polysilicon is affected by factors such as production reduction, inventory, and delivery games, and the instability risk of the near - month contract is relatively high [13][15]. - The glass industry is still in the bottom - seeking stage, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been effectively alleviated. It is expected that the short - term market will continue to show a wide - range volatile trend. The soda ash market is expected to maintain a stable price in the short term, but it should still be viewed bearishly before the demand side shows obvious improvement [18][20]. 3. Summary by Categories Steel - **Market Quotes** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3169 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton (1.149%) from the previous trading day. The hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3319 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.18%) [1]. - **Strategy Views** - Rebar supply and demand both decreased, and inventory continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil production increased, apparent demand declined slightly, and inventory decreased only slightly. South Korea's anti - dumping tax on Chinese steel products will have a certain impact on steel exports [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes** - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 799.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.12% (- 1.00). The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 47.30 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.59% [4]. - **Strategy Views** - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume remained stable. Australian shipments decreased slightly, Brazilian shipments increased significantly, and non - mainstream country shipments decreased slightly. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output decreased, the number of blast furnace overhauls increased significantly, and the profitability of steel mills was at a low level in the same period of the past three years [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes** - On December 3, the main contract of manganese silicon closed up 0.31% at 5746 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a premium of 124 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon closed down 0.04% at 5446 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, with a premium of 54 yuan/ton over the futures [7][8]. - **Strategy Views** - The market sentiment has improved, but the black sector is still weak. Affected by the weak sentiment of coking coal, ferroalloys also showed a weak trend. There is no need to be overly pessimistic, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of market sentiment [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Quotes** - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 8920 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.61% (- 55). The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 57430 yuan/ton, with a change of + 1.98% (+ 1115) [12][14]. - **Strategy Views** - Industrial silicon production is decreasing, and demand is weak. Polysilicon production is expected to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The inventory pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve, and the price of the near - month contract is unstable [13][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Quotes** - The glass main contract closed at 1020 yuan/ton, down 1.35% (- 14). The soda ash main contract closed at 1165 yuan/ton, down 1.52% (- 18) [17][19]. - **Strategy Views** - The glass industry has reduced supply, but the overall trading atmosphere in the spot market is still light. The soda ash market has a stable price supported by cost and pending orders, but the demand is still weak [18][20].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment is warm as the December Central Economic Work Conference is approaching and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts overseas. However, the current steel inventory level is still higher year - on - year, demand is under pressure to weaken, and the steel futures market lacks upward momentum. There is still an expectation of seasonal weakening of hot metal, the driving force for further upward movement of iron ore is insufficient, the spot prices of coking coal and coke remain weak, and the supply - demand surplus of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the futures prices [1][2]. - Overall, there are limited bright spots in the fundamentals during the off - season. There is still a possibility of positive news from the macro and policy fronts, and the futures market may have phased upward opportunities due to the boost of macro sentiment [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Sinter ore inventory decreased slightly despite the increase in the sinter ore output and its proportion in the furnace, but sinter powder inventory increased. With the continuous compression of profit margins, hot metal is expected to continue to weaken, and the support from rigid demand is gradually weakening. Overseas mine shipments increased slightly month - on - month, with a decrease in Australian shipments, a significant increase in Brazilian shipments, and a slight decrease in non - mainstream shipments. The arrivals in this period decreased month - on - month, port inventory continued to accumulate, and the inventory of imported ore in national steel mills declined, with the replenishment demand not yet significantly released. After the previous price recovery, there is insufficient support for further upward movement, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - The arrival of scrap steel is low. After the price decline, its cost - performance has recovered, and the demand for scrap steel from both long - and short - process steel enterprises is supported. The downside space is limited, and the scrap steel price is expected to oscillate [2]. Carbon Element - Coke supply has increased slightly, and steel mill开工 has declined seasonally. Coke supply and demand are slightly loose. Coupled with the continuous weakening of spot cost support, there are still expectations of 1 - 2 rounds of supplementary price cuts. However, there are still expectations of winter storage and replenishment for raw materials in the future, and the possibility of continuous multiple rounds of price cuts is low. The futures market is expected to oscillate following coking coal [3]. - Although the fundamentals of coking coal have slightly deteriorated marginally, the current valuation level of the futures market is still low. The low - output state of domestic coal mines will continue, and the expectations of winter storage and replenishment by the mid - and downstream are strong. There is still support at the bottom of the spot price. The near - month contracts may remain oscillating due to the impact of delivery, while the far - month contracts are less affected, and are expected to oscillate with an upward trend [3][11]. Alloys - The price center of ore has risen, and the cost of ferromanganese silicon remains relatively high. However, the market supply - demand is in a loose state, and the price is under great upward pressure. It is difficult to transfer the cost downstream. It is expected that the futures price will mainly operate at a low level [3]. - The strong cost supports the bottom of the ferrosilicon price. However, the market supply - demand is in a weak state, and the price increase is still weak. The cost transfer downstream is not smooth, and the futures price of the main contract is expected to mainly operate at a low level [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of the mid - and downstream is moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply - demand is still in a surplus state. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. Otherwise, the price will rise [3][6][12]. - The price of the soda ash industry is approaching the cost, and the bottom support is obvious. Recently, the cold - repair of glass has further increased, and the overall supply - demand is still in a surplus state. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the surplus pattern of supply will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [6][15]. Specific Varieties - **Steel**: The demand is under pressure in the off - season, and the futures market lacks upward momentum. The spot market trading is generally average. The profitability of steel mills continues to decline, but the willingness to reduce production is limited. The overall steel inventory continues to decline, but the current inventory level is still higher year - on - year, and the demand is facing the pressure to weaken. The third - round and fifth - batch of the Central Ecological and Environmental Protection Inspection Team has reported some typical environmental problems in Tianjin and Hebei. Although it has limited impact on the production of northern steel mills, the macro - environment is warm, and the futures market still has the driving force to rebound from a low level, but the upside space is limited [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the price is expected to oscillate. The overseas mine shipments increased slightly month - on - month, the arrivals decreased month - on - month. The rigid demand for hot metal is gradually weakening, the port inventory continues to accumulate, the inventory of imported ore in steel mills has declined, and the replenishment demand has not been significantly released. After the previous price recovery, there is insufficient support for further upward movement [8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival of scrap steel at steel mills is low, and the price is expected to oscillate. The arrival volume this week decreased slightly compared with last week and was lower than the level of the same period last year. The demand from both long - and short - process steel enterprises is supported, and the downside space is limited [9]. - **Coke**: The supply and demand are slightly loose, and the price is still under pressure. The supply has increased slightly, the demand has declined slightly, the inventory has slightly accumulated, but the overall contradiction is not significant. There are still expectations of 1 - 2 rounds of supplementary price cuts, but the possibility of continuous multiple rounds of price cuts is low, and the futures market is expected to oscillate following coking coal [10]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply remains at a low level, and coal mines continue to accumulate inventory. The domestic coal mine production continues at a low level, the imports from Mongolia remain high, the demand from the mid - and downstream has decreased, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The futures market is expected to oscillate, with the near - month contracts remaining stable and the far - month contracts expected to oscillate with an upward trend [10][11]. - **Glass**: The demand is still weak, and supply reduction is still needed. The supply is expected to decline in December. The demand is weak compared with the same period last year, and the large inventory of the mid - stream always suppresses the futures valuation. If there is no further cold - repair, the price may decline [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply remains at a low level, and the supply - demand is still in a surplus state. The supply and demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. The industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long run, the price center will decline [15]. - **Ferromanganese Silicon**: The cost transfer downstream is not smooth, and the inventory accumulation puts pressure on the price. The supply - demand is loose, and the price is under pressure. The cost support still exists, but the supply contraction is limited, and it is difficult to relieve the inventory pressure. It is expected that the futures price will mainly operate at a low level [16]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand is in a weak state, and the price increase is weak. The cost support is strong, but the supply - demand is still weak, and it is difficult to transfer the cost downstream. It is expected that the futures price of the main contract will mainly operate at a low level [18]. Index Information - On December 3, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures' commodity index was 2270.14, down 0.22%; the commodity 20 index was 2587.91, down 0.13%; the industrial product index was 2219.45, down 0.41% [101]. - The steel industry chain index on December 3, 2025, was 1990.66, with a daily decline of 0.30%, a 5 - day increase of 0.53%, a monthly decline of 0.39%, and a year - to - date decline of 5.58% [103].

中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-02 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 宏观情绪偏暖，板块表现偏强 钢⼚供给端存在扰动，河北唐⼭因违规上⻢钢铁项⽬和新增产能被中 央⽣态环境保护督察组点名，⼤⽓污染防治存在明显短板，但实际对 北⽅钢⼚⽣产影响有限。12⽉中央经济⼯作会议即将召开，海外仍 有降息预期，宏观环境偏暖，钢材盘⾯表现偏强。铁矿在⾼铁⽔及冬 储补库预期下仍有较强⽀撑，煤焦在交割影响弱化之后低位反弹。 钢厂供给端存在扰动，河北唐山因违规上马钢铁项目和新增产能被中 央生态环境保护督察组点名，大气污染防治存在明显短板，但实际对 北方钢厂生产影响有限。12月中央经济工作会议即将召开，海外仍有 降息预期，宏观环境偏暖，钢材盘面表现偏强。铁矿在高铁水及冬储 补库预期下仍有较强支撑，煤焦在交割影响弱化之后低位反弹。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水环比下降，钢厂盈利率进一步压缩，后续仍有 部分钢厂安排高炉检修计划，铁水预计延续走弱态势，刚需支撑逐渐 弱化。海外矿山发运环比小幅回升，澳洲发运减少，巴西发运环比大 幅增加，非主流发运略降，本期到港环比减量，港口库存环比继续累 积，全国钢厂进口矿库存下滑， ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. Core Views Polyolefins - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and a slight reduction in inventory. PE shows increased supply and decreased demand, with ample imported goods and weakening demand except for agricultural films. Overall, the 01 contract still faces significant pressure [2]. Crude Oil - During the US Thanksgiving, trading was light, and the Russia - Ukraine peace talks were uncertain, leading to a slight increase in overnight oil prices. However, due to OPEC+ continuous production increase and record - high US crude oil production, the supply - demand pattern remains weak. Oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, with short - term focus on the $60/barrel support for Brent crude and the results of the Russia - Ukraine talks [4]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, domestic production areas are gradually entering the production - reducing and cutting - off season, and floods in southern Thailand and Vietnam need time to recede, providing strong cost support. However, the arrival of overseas shipments is increasing seasonally, and inventory accumulation suppresses spot prices. On the demand side, overall demand is weak, and the market mainly digests channel inventory. Natural rubber is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation, with the price likely to weaken if raw material supply is smooth, and to run in the 15000 - 15500 range if supply is restricted [6]. Methanol - In the inland market, Jiutai's maintenance is over, and subsequent domestic production will continue to increase. Currently, marginal inland plants are in the red. In Iran, some plants have started gas - restricted shutdowns, improving market sentiment and strengthening the futures price and basis. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [8][9]. LPG No specific overall view provided in the given content. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: New production capacity and plant restarts are expected, and although some plants are reducing production, supply remains loose. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and some loss - making varieties are reducing production. Port inventory is rising, and short - term prices may be dragged down by oil prices. The strategy is to short on rebounds for BZ2603 in the short term. - Styrene: With profit recovery, some plants are increasing production, but planned and unplanned shutdowns and maintenance are also increasing, limiting supply. Downstream demand support is limited, and overseas blending demand is cooling, but there are still export expectations. The short - term supply - demand outlook is improving, but the rebound space is limited. EB01 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. Ester Industry Chain - PX: Short - term supply is relatively high, and demand is weak due to PTA plant maintenance and weakening terminal demand. The short - term driver is limited, but the medium - term supply - demand outlook is tight, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. - PTA: Supply reduction exceeds expectations, and demand from polyester is supported. Exports are expected to increase. The supply - demand outlook is improving, and the basis is recovering. It is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term, and the strategy is to go long on the TA month - spread at low levels. - Ethylene Glycol (EG): Polyester demand provides some support, but supply from coal - based plants is increasing, and imports are expected to be high. The port inventory has limited downward space. The strategy is to short the EG1 - 5 spread at high levels. - Short - fiber: Supply remains high, and demand is seasonally weak. The absolute price has limited drivers, and processing fees are expected to be compressed. - Bottle chips: Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the processing fee is expected to decline. The strategy is to short the processing fee [14]. Glass - Soda Ash - Soda Ash: Recent production has declined, and inventory has decreased, supporting the futures price. However, the medium - term oversupply problem persists, and demand is expected to remain at the previous rigid level. The supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the strategy is to wait for short - selling opportunities after rebounds. - Glass: News of production line shutdowns in Hubei has boosted the market sentiment, and the futures price has rebounded, driving better spot sales. There is still some short - term rigid demand, but long - term demand is a concern, especially with the approaching winter in the north. The market still needs capacity clearance to solve the oversupply problem. The 01 contract may face pressure near the delivery month [15]. PVC - Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The industry still faces supply - demand pressure. Regional supply in East China will decrease next week, but with the monthly contract signing, the spot price in East China is expected to decline if the futures price remains weakening. The demand from the main downstream, alumina, is weak, and the price is expected to be weak in the long term. - PVC: The spot market remains weak. Supply is increasing, and demand is sluggish, especially during the traditional off - season from November to January. Although the cancellation of India's BIS certification is beneficial, the expected anti - dumping tax implementation limits external demand. The supply - demand pattern is in surplus, and the price is expected to continue to be weak at the bottom [16]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601 and L2605 prices decreased slightly, while PP2601 and PP2605 prices increased. L15, LP01 spreads decreased, and PP15 spread increased. Spot prices of some products changed slightly [2]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP inventories decreased, with PE enterprise inventory down 9.80% and PP enterprise inventory down 8.00% [2]. - **开工率**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.17%, and PP powder operating rate increased by 6.93%, while PP device operating rate decreased slightly [2]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI prices increased slightly, while SC price decreased. Some spreads such as Brent - WTI decreased [4]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB price increased, while NYM ULSD and ICE Gasoil prices decreased [4]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex and Thai standard mixed rubber prices increased slightly, and some spreads changed [6]. - **Fundamentals**: September production in Thailand, Indonesia, etc. changed, and October tire production, exports, and natural rubber imports decreased [6]. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory and warehouse futures inventory increased, while some出库 and入库 rates changed [6]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices increased, and some spreads and basis changed [8]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 4.19%, while port and social inventories decreased [8]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream operating rates changed, with downstream - formaldehyde operating rate increasing by 2.73% [9]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: PG2512, PG2601, etc. prices decreased slightly, and some spreads and basis changed [11]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio and port inventory decreased [11]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream operating rates changed slightly [11]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Prices of some upstream products such as crude oil, naphtha, and pure benzene changed slightly, and some spreads decreased [13]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene spot and futures prices decreased slightly, and some spreads and basis changed [13]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports increased [13]. - **开工率**: Some industry operating rates such as domestic pure benzene and styrene changed [13]. Ester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Prices of some upstream products such as crude oil, naphtha, and PX changed slightly [14]. - **Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of some polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed slightly, and cash flows and processing fees of some products changed [14]. - **开工率**: Some industry operating rates such as PTA, MEG, and polyester changed [14]. Glass - Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash spot and futures prices changed slightly, and some basis changed [15]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production and float glass and photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased [15]. - **Inventory**: Glass and soda ash inventories decreased [15]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area, construction area, etc. changed, with some showing a decline [15]. PVC - Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: Prices of caustic soda and PVC changed slightly, and some spreads and basis changed [16]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Overseas quotes of caustic soda and PVC decreased, and export profits changed [16]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda and PVC operating rates increased slightly [16]. - **Demand**: Operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC changed [16]. - **Inventory**: Some inventories of caustic soda and PVC changed [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, with finished steel prices showing a weak and volatile trend. Although the steel demand has officially entered the off - season and there is a risk of inventory accumulation for hot - rolled coils, with the implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve, and the steel consumption end may gradually recover in the future [2]. - For iron ore, the supply is still at a high level in the same period, but the demand continues to weaken, and the inventory pressure remains. After the macro - events are realized, the fundamentals of iron ore are weak, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. If the US liquidity problem is alleviated, the price may stabilize [5]. - Regarding manganese silicon and silicon iron, the fundamentals are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the trend of the black sector. The operability is relatively low [10]. - For industrial silicon, the supply pressure persists, and the demand support weakens. The price is likely to fluctuate with the commodity market in the short term, and attention should be paid to the option game near the expiration [13]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term inventory reduction is limited. The market has strong expectations for the industry meeting, and the price is highly volatile [16]. - For glass, the market expects an improvement in the supply structure, but the price increase is restricted by the low procurement enthusiasm of downstream factories. The sustainability of the market depends on spot transactions and inventory reduction [19]. - For soda ash, the industry operating rate remains high, the loss continues to expand, and the demand is mainly for rigid restocking. The price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3024 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.65%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2708 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 65237 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai aggregate prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton and 30 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3253 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.36%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the main contract positions decreased by 23039 lots. The Lecong and Shanghai aggregate prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton and 20 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Strategy Views - Rebar shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with inventory continuously decreasing, performing neutrally overall. Hot - rolled coils have a continuous recovery in demand, but the production is still high, and the inventory level is still relatively high [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 776.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.06% (+ 0.50). The positions decreased by 3095 lots to 54.47 million lots. The weighted position was 94.35 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 55.23 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.64% [4]. Strategy Views - Supply: The overseas iron ore shipment volume decreased slightly but remained at a high level in the same period. The shipments from Australia and Brazil both declined, with FMG having a significant decline. The shipments from non - mainstream countries decreased slightly, and the near - end arrival volume rebounded to the annual high [5]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 3.54 million tons to 236.36 million tons. The number of blast furnaces under maintenance far exceeded those under restart. The steel mill profitability reached a new low, and some blast furnaces started maintenance due to profit decline. Environmental protection restrictions in Hebei also affected pig iron production [5]. - Inventory: Port inventory continued to increase, while steel mill inventory decreased [5]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Quotes - On November 5, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed up 0.38% at 5776 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 116 yuan/ton [7][8]. - The main contract of silicon iron (SF601) closed up 0.91% at 5560 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5550 yuan/ton, with a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the futures [8]. Strategy Views - The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, and the potential driver may come from the manganese ore end. If the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to the possible disturbances in the manganese ore end [10]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of silicon iron have no obvious contradictions and drivers, and it is likely to follow the black sector [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The main contract (SI2601) closed at 9020 yuan/ton, up 1.52% (+ 135). The weighted contract positions decreased by 13071 lots to 398388 lots. The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 was 9300 yuan/ton, with a basis of 280 yuan/ton; the 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 120 yuan/ton [12]. - Polysilicon: The main contract (PS2601) closed at 53355 yuan/ton, down 0.67% (- 360). The weighted contract positions decreased by 7354 lots to 230402 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, and the basis was - 1155 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The supply pressure persists. Although the production in Southwest China is reduced during the dry season, the production in Northwest China continues to rise. The demand support weakens, and the price is likely to fluctuate with the commodity market in the short term [13]. - Polysilicon: Some production capacities will be overhauled, and the production in November will be reduced to 120,000 tons. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term inventory reduction is limited. The market has strong expectations for the industry meeting, and the price is highly volatile [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: The main contract closed at 1097 yuan/ton on Wednesday afternoon, down 0.72% (- 8). The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 823,000 cases (- 1.24%). The top 20 long - position holders increased 27375 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 45091 lots [18]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1195 yuan/ton on Wednesday afternoon, up 0.50% (+ 6). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 10,000 tons (- 1.24%), with heavy - soda inventory decreasing by 48,100 tons and light - soda inventory increasing by 48,000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders decreased 16327 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased 16452 lots [20]. Strategy Views - Glass: The market expects an improvement in the supply structure, but the price increase is restricted by the low procurement enthusiasm of downstream factories. The sustainability of the market depends on spot transactions and inventory reduction [19]. - Soda ash: The industry operating rate remains high, the loss continues to expand, and the demand is mainly for rigid restocking. The price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the black building materials industry. However, for individual varieties, the mid - term outlook for most is "oscillation", including steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon [7][8][10]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The black building materials industry chain operates stably. Coal mine supply recovery is slower than expected, supporting coking coal and coke prices, but it's difficult to spread the impact to other varieties in the sector. Meanwhile, with continuous macro and policy expectations, short - term prices of sector varieties will remain oscillating, and attention should be paid to rebound opportunities under the background of policy introduction [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have slightly increased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has declined from a high level. The sample daily average output of hot metal continues to decline, and the market's expectation of weakening hot metal has increased. Port inventory continues to accumulate, and the pressure is not significant. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Scrap Steel**: Supply has decreased significantly this week, and demand has also declined. Steel mills' inventories are slightly reduced. The short - term price is expected to follow the trend of finished products [10]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The second round of price increase is likely to be implemented. With short - term rigid demand from steel mills and strong raw materials, the price is expected to oscillate [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is frequently disrupted, and mid - and downstream procurement is active. The fundamentals are healthy, but the upward driving force of furnace materials is limited under the pressure of steel products. The price is expected to oscillate [2]. 3.3 Alloys - **Ferromanganese**: Cost reduction is limited, steel production is at a high level, and macro - policy expectations support the price, but the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and the medium - and long - term price center may decline [2]. - **Ferrosilicon**: High finished product output and stable cost support the price, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the expected upward price limit is limited [2]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Upstream inventory continues to accumulate, and the short - term price shows an oscillating and weakening trend. In the medium and long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price may continue to oscillate downward [3][12]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to follow macro fluctuations and oscillate widely, and the long - term price center will decline [3]. 3.5 Steel - The inventory of steel continues to decrease, but it is at a moderately high level. The contradiction in the fundamentals needs time to ease. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the strengthening of the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar [7]. 3.6 Commodity Index - On October 23, 2025, the comprehensive index, including the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index, showed an upward trend, with increases of 0.70%, 0.58%, 1.12%, and 0.86% respectively. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.93% on that day, 2.20% in the past 5 days, decreased by 2.29% in the past month, and decreased by 4.73% since the beginning of the year [102][103].