Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, with finished steel prices showing a weak and volatile trend. Although the steel demand has officially entered the off - season and there is a risk of inventory accumulation for hot - rolled coils, with the implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve, and the steel consumption end may gradually recover in the future [2]. - For iron ore, the supply is still at a high level in the same period, but the demand continues to weaken, and the inventory pressure remains. After the macro - events are realized, the fundamentals of iron ore are weak, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. If the US liquidity problem is alleviated, the price may stabilize [5]. - Regarding manganese silicon and silicon iron, the fundamentals are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the trend of the black sector. The operability is relatively low [10]. - For industrial silicon, the supply pressure persists, and the demand support weakens. The price is likely to fluctuate with the commodity market in the short term, and attention should be paid to the option game near the expiration [13]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term inventory reduction is limited. The market has strong expectations for the industry meeting, and the price is highly volatile [16]. - For glass, the market expects an improvement in the supply structure, but the price increase is restricted by the low procurement enthusiasm of downstream factories. The sustainability of the market depends on spot transactions and inventory reduction [19]. - For soda ash, the industry operating rate remains high, the loss continues to expand, and the demand is mainly for rigid restocking. The price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3024 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.65%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2708 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 65237 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai aggregate prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton and 30 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3253 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.36%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the main contract positions decreased by 23039 lots. The Lecong and Shanghai aggregate prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton and 20 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Strategy Views - Rebar shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with inventory continuously decreasing, performing neutrally overall. Hot - rolled coils have a continuous recovery in demand, but the production is still high, and the inventory level is still relatively high [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 776.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.06% (+ 0.50). The positions decreased by 3095 lots to 54.47 million lots. The weighted position was 94.35 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 55.23 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.64% [4]. Strategy Views - Supply: The overseas iron ore shipment volume decreased slightly but remained at a high level in the same period. The shipments from Australia and Brazil both declined, with FMG having a significant decline. The shipments from non - mainstream countries decreased slightly, and the near - end arrival volume rebounded to the annual high [5]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 3.54 million tons to 236.36 million tons. The number of blast furnaces under maintenance far exceeded those under restart. The steel mill profitability reached a new low, and some blast furnaces started maintenance due to profit decline. Environmental protection restrictions in Hebei also affected pig iron production [5]. - Inventory: Port inventory continued to increase, while steel mill inventory decreased [5]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Quotes - On November 5, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed up 0.38% at 5776 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 116 yuan/ton [7][8]. - The main contract of silicon iron (SF601) closed up 0.91% at 5560 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5550 yuan/ton, with a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the futures [8]. Strategy Views - The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, and the potential driver may come from the manganese ore end. If the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to the possible disturbances in the manganese ore end [10]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of silicon iron have no obvious contradictions and drivers, and it is likely to follow the black sector [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The main contract (SI2601) closed at 9020 yuan/ton, up 1.52% (+ 135). The weighted contract positions decreased by 13071 lots to 398388 lots. The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 was 9300 yuan/ton, with a basis of 280 yuan/ton; the 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 120 yuan/ton [12]. - Polysilicon: The main contract (PS2601) closed at 53355 yuan/ton, down 0.67% (- 360). The weighted contract positions decreased by 7354 lots to 230402 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, and the basis was - 1155 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The supply pressure persists. Although the production in Southwest China is reduced during the dry season, the production in Northwest China continues to rise. The demand support weakens, and the price is likely to fluctuate with the commodity market in the short term [13]. - Polysilicon: Some production capacities will be overhauled, and the production in November will be reduced to 120,000 tons. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term inventory reduction is limited. The market has strong expectations for the industry meeting, and the price is highly volatile [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: The main contract closed at 1097 yuan/ton on Wednesday afternoon, down 0.72% (- 8). The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 823,000 cases (- 1.24%). The top 20 long - position holders increased 27375 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 45091 lots [18]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1195 yuan/ton on Wednesday afternoon, up 0.50% (+ 6). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 10,000 tons (- 1.24%), with heavy - soda inventory decreasing by 48,100 tons and light - soda inventory increasing by 48,000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders decreased 16327 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased 16452 lots [20]. Strategy Views - Glass: The market expects an improvement in the supply structure, but the price increase is restricted by the low procurement enthusiasm of downstream factories. The sustainability of the market depends on spot transactions and inventory reduction [19]. - Soda ash: The industry operating rate remains high, the loss continues to expand, and the demand is mainly for rigid restocking. The price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the black building materials industry. However, for individual varieties, the mid - term outlook for most is "oscillation", including steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon [7][8][10]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The black building materials industry chain operates stably. Coal mine supply recovery is slower than expected, supporting coking coal and coke prices, but it's difficult to spread the impact to other varieties in the sector. Meanwhile, with continuous macro and policy expectations, short - term prices of sector varieties will remain oscillating, and attention should be paid to rebound opportunities under the background of policy introduction [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have slightly increased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has declined from a high level. The sample daily average output of hot metal continues to decline, and the market's expectation of weakening hot metal has increased. Port inventory continues to accumulate, and the pressure is not significant. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Scrap Steel**: Supply has decreased significantly this week, and demand has also declined. Steel mills' inventories are slightly reduced. The short - term price is expected to follow the trend of finished products [10]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The second round of price increase is likely to be implemented. With short - term rigid demand from steel mills and strong raw materials, the price is expected to oscillate [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is frequently disrupted, and mid - and downstream procurement is active. The fundamentals are healthy, but the upward driving force of furnace materials is limited under the pressure of steel products. The price is expected to oscillate [2]. 3.3 Alloys - **Ferromanganese**: Cost reduction is limited, steel production is at a high level, and macro - policy expectations support the price, but the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and the medium - and long - term price center may decline [2]. - **Ferrosilicon**: High finished product output and stable cost support the price, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the expected upward price limit is limited [2]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Upstream inventory continues to accumulate, and the short - term price shows an oscillating and weakening trend. In the medium and long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price may continue to oscillate downward [3][12]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to follow macro fluctuations and oscillate widely, and the long - term price center will decline [3]. 3.5 Steel - The inventory of steel continues to decrease, but it is at a moderately high level. The contradiction in the fundamentals needs time to ease. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the strengthening of the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar [7]. 3.6 Commodity Index - On October 23, 2025, the comprehensive index, including the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index, showed an upward trend, with increases of 0.70%, 0.58%, 1.12%, and 0.86% respectively. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.93% on that day, 2.20% in the past 5 days, decreased by 2.29% in the past month, and decreased by 4.73% since the beginning of the year [102][103].

黑色建材日报 2025-10-22 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3047 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 2 元/吨（0.065%）。当日注册仓单 129796 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 199.5833 万手，环比减少 10093 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3110 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3200 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约 收盘价为 3219 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 4 元/吨（0.124%）。 当日注册仓单 113657 吨, 环比减少 2375 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was good yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate. Although it has entered the traditional peak season, the demand for rebar remains weak, and while hot-rolled coils have some resilience, the overall demand is still weak. If the demand cannot be effectively repaired in the future, steel prices still face the risk of decline. The raw material end is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the policy trends of the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate. In the short term, the molten iron output is expected to remain strong, and the ore price is supported until steel mills reduce production. The market sentiment is relatively positive after the China-US presidential call, and the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" aims to stabilize the supply and prices of raw materials and reduce speculative sentiment [4]. - The black sector may face a short - term downward correction risk, especially after the National Day holiday. However, considering the subsequent overseas fiscal and monetary easing and the opening of China's policy space, the black sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long - positions, and the key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [9]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to continue to fluctuate. The supply and demand of industrial silicon have not changed significantly. Although the downstream demand provides some support, the high inventory limits the upward space of prices. The price needs fundamental improvement for a strong rebound [13]. - The price of polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate. The market focus is on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer progress. If the expectations are not fulfilled, the price may decline. Attention should be paid to the support at the 50,000 yuan/ton mark of the main contract [15]. - The glass price may experience short - term surges due to policy and price - increase factors, but the terminal demand is weak. The supply is relatively abundant, and the inventory performance varies by region. It is recommended to take a bullish view in the short term and pay attention to policy trends [18]. - The domestic soda ash market is expected to remain stable with narrow fluctuations. The production is generally stable, the demand is flat, and the market is expected to continue to consolidate in the short term [20]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Rebar - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3,167 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.094%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 271,422 tons, a net increase of 7,616 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.870449 million lots, a net decrease of 11,775 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3,230 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The rebar production was basically the same as last week, the pre - holiday apparent demand increased, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved [2]. Hot - Rolled Coils - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,358 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.029%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 29,204 tons, a net decrease of 5,355 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.369716 million lots, a net increase of 1,955 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3,370 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The hot - rolled coil production declined, the apparent demand was neutral, and the inventory increased slightly [2]. Iron Ore - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 805.50 yuan/ton, up 0.25% (+2.00), with a position change of - 9,319 lots to 529,700 lots. The weighted position was 848,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 795 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 40.05 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 4.74% [3]. - The latest overseas iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month. The shipments from Australia declined from a high level, and the shipments from three major mines decreased to varying degrees. The shipments from Brazil decreased slightly, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries also decreased month - on - month. The near - end arrivals increased month - on - month. The daily average molten iron output was 242.36 tons, up 1.34 tons month - on - month. The steel mill profitability further declined. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased significantly. The destocking of the five major steel products increased, and the apparent demand rebounded [4]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Manganese Silicon - On September 25, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) opened nearly 1% lower in the morning and then closed higher, with a daily increase of 0.37% to close at 5,938 yuan/ton. The manganese silicon price generally remained within the oscillation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance at around 6,000 yuan/ton and the support at around 5,600 yuan/ton [7]. - The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, mainly due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. However, the manganese ore port inventory has been at a low level recently, and the manganese ore price is relatively strong. If the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to possible disturbances in the manganese ore end [9]. Ferrosilicon - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) opened nearly 1.5% lower in the morning and then rebounded, with a daily increase of 0.77% to close at 5,786 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon price also remained within the oscillation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance at around 5,800 yuan/ton and the support at around 5,400 yuan/ton [7]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions or drivers and are likely to follow the black sector's trend, with a relatively low operation cost - effectiveness [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 9,055 yuan/ton, up 0.39% (+35). The weighted contract position changed by - 8,270 lots to 500,028 lots. In the现货 market, the market price of non - oxygenated 553 in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was 245 yuan/ton; the market price of 421 was 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract after conversion was - 155 yuan/ton [11]. - The supply and demand of industrial silicon have not changed significantly. The production growth has slowed down, but the weekly output is still at a relatively high level. The downstream demand provides some support, but the high inventory limits the upward space of prices. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to supply - demand improvement and policy changes [13]. Polysilicon - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 51,365 yuan/ton, down 0.03% (-15). The weighted contract position changed by - 8,430 lots to 241,935 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, up 1 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.05 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re - feed material was 52.55 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg, and the basis of the main contract was 1,185 yuan/ton [14]. - The polysilicon price is mainly influenced by policy narratives. The market focus is on capacity integration policies and downstream price transfer progress. If the expectations are not fulfilled, the price may decline. Attention should be paid to the support at the 50,000 yuan/ton mark of the main contract and the authenticity of sudden news [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - On Thursday afternoon at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 1,270 yuan/ton, up 2.67% (+33). The large - plate price in North China was 1,210 yuan, up 50 from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1,200 yuan, up 50 from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million cases, a net decrease of 1.553 million cases (-2.55%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 55,809 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 13,867 lots [17]. - Six departments have issued a document to ban the addition of flat glass production capacity and strengthen capacity replacement requirements. Some enterprises have announced price increases, which have pushed up the market in the short term. However, the terminal demand is weak, and downstream procurement is cautious. The supply adjustment is limited, and the market supply is abundant. The inventory performance varies by region. It is recommended to take a bullish view in the short term and pay attention to policy trends [18]. Soda Ash - On Thursday afternoon at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1,315 yuan/ton, up 0.61% (+8). The heavy - soda price in Shahe was 1,225 yuan, up 8 from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.6515 million tons, a net decrease of 104,100 tons (-2.55%), including 922,400 tons of heavy - soda inventory, a net decrease of 83,700 tons, and 729,100 tons of light - soda inventory, a net decrease of 20,400 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 8,864 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 1,705 lots [19]. - The domestic soda ash market is generally stable with narrow fluctuations. The production is generally stable, and the demand is flat. The market is expected to continue to consolidate in the short term [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry: Oscillating with a slight upward trend [7] - Short - term outlook for each variety: - Steel: Oscillating [9] - Iron ore: Oscillating [10] - Scrap steel: Oscillating [11] - Coke: Oscillating [13] - Coking coal: Oscillating with a slight upward trend [14] - Glass: Oscillating [15] - Soda ash: Oscillating [18] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [19] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - The release of the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" has a minor impact on the futures prices of the sector, but the prices of sector varieties still have support due to the marginal improvement in the industrial chain during the peak season and the market's expectations for the fourth - quarter important meetings [2] - Overall, in the short term, the "anti - involution" factor causes market fluctuations, but based on the improvement of the industrial chain fundamentals, the callback space is limited. With the positive expectations of domestic important meetings in the fourth quarter and overseas interest rate cuts, prices are expected to rise steadily [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: Shipments have declined but remain at a high level. The arrival volume has been affected by typhoons. Demand remains high, and the pre - National Day restocking expectation still exists. The fundamentals are healthy, and prices are supported [3] - Scrap steel: The fundamentals have marginally weakened, and prices mainly follow the fluctuations of finished products [3] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: The work plan has a certain negative impact on the furnace charge end, but before the National Day, the demand is well - supported, and with the cost support from the stable and rising coal prices, the price is expected to remain oscillating in the short term [3] - Coking coal: The "anti - involution" policy remains the main line. The fundamentals are healthy, and with the pre - National Day restocking by the mid - and downstream, the price is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend in the short term [3] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: The short - term peak - season expectation supports the price to some extent, but the future supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price may decline after the peak season [3] - Ferrosilicon: The peak - season expectation supports the price, but the future supply - demand relationship will tend to be loose, and the price may face downward pressure after the peak season [3] 3.4 Glass - The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be another round of oscillations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if prices return to fundamental trading, they are expected to decline oscillatingly [4] 3.5 Soda Ash - The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. After the decline in the futures price, the spot - futures trading volume has slightly increased, and the price is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [7] 3.6 Specific Analysis of Each Variety - Steel: Spot market transactions are generally weak. The peak - season demand recovery is less than expected, and inventories are at a moderately high level. The short - term futures price is expected to oscillate widely [9] - Iron ore: Overseas shipments have slightly declined, and the arrival volume has increased. Demand is supported in the short term, and inventories are at a moderate level. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [9] - Scrap steel: Supply has increased slightly, demand has decreased, and inventories have increased slightly. The fundamentals have marginally weakened, and prices follow finished products [11] - Coke: Supply remains stable at a high level, and demand is strongly supported. The price is expected to remain oscillating in the short term [13] - Coking coal: Supply recovery is slow, and demand is strong. The price is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend in the short term [14] - Glass: Demand is in the off - season, and supply has uncertainties. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [15] - Soda ash: Supply capacity has not been cleared, and demand is stable with a slight increase. The price is expected to oscillate [18] - Manganese silicon: Market supply pressure is increasing, and the future price may decline [19] - Ferrosilicon: Supply is increasing, and demand growth is limited. The price may face downward pressure after the peak season [20]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the prices of finished products are showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The economic data in August slowed down and were lower than expected, increasing the possibility of more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales are still weak, and it will take time for the real - estate market to stabilize. The export volume decreased slightly last week and remains in a weak and volatile pattern. The demand for rebar is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively firm, and the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils have diverged. Steel mills' profits are gradually narrowing, and the weak characteristics of the market are becoming more prominent. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices still have the risk of decline. The raw material prices are relatively firm, and continuous attention should be paid to the possible disturbances caused by domestic and overseas macro - policies [3]. - The short - term iron ore price is expected to fluctuate. The overseas iron ore shipments have rebounded to the same - period high, the proximal arrival volume has decreased slightly, and the short - term demand support still exists. The steel mill profitability rate continues to decline, and the port and steel mill inventories have both increased slightly. The terminal data shows that the apparent demand for the five major steel products has increased to some extent, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The rebar data is weak, and the difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar has been strong recently. Attention should be paid to whether the internal contradictions of finished products will be transmitted to the raw material end [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the prices of their main contracts fluctuated higher on September 17. From a disk perspective, they are in a range - bound pattern. The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, mainly due to high - level supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. Ferrosilicon has no obvious contradictions and drivers in its supply - demand fundamentals. Both are likely to follow the trend of the black - sector market, and their operational cost - effectiveness is relatively low [8][9][11]. - The price of industrial silicon fluctuated and strengthened. The fundamentals of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand have not changed fundamentally. The short - term valuation is neutral. If the market continues to discuss topics such as "anti - involution", the price may rise further under the expected drive; otherwise, the weak fundamentals will limit the price increase. The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policy narratives. Before the actual progress of capacity integration, the disk price is prone to fluctuate with the ebb and flow of sentiment [13][14][16]. - For glass, the industry supply has increased slightly, and the enterprise inventory has decreased. The pre - holiday stocking has promoted inventory reduction, but the market supply is still abundant, and the terminal demand is weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish. For soda ash, the industry supply has contracted slightly, mainly due to the maintenance of production lines. Some downstream enterprises have pre - holiday stocking needs, but most are still purchasing based on rigid demand. The market trading atmosphere is tepid, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [18][19]. - Although the black - sector prices still have the risk of short - term phased decline under the influence of real - demand, in the face of the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary easing, and the opening of China's policy space after the US enters the interest - rate cut cycle, the black - sector may gradually have the cost - effectiveness of long - allocation in the future, and the key node may focus on the "Fourth Plenary Session" around mid - October [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: The closing price of the main rebar contract was 3168 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.063%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 6300 tons, and the position increased by 7123 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: The closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3390 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.35%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the position increased by 523 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 804.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.12% (+ 1.00), and the position increased by 2092 lots to 53.45 million lots. The weighted position was 84.05 million lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 43.25 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.10% [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Manganese Silicon**: On September 17, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) rose 0.77% to close at 5990 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5820 yuan/ton, with a basis of 20 yuan/ton [8]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main ferrosilicon contract (SF511) rose 1.16% to close at 5766 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 yuan/ton [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract (SI2511) was 8965 yuan/ton, up 0.56% (+ 50). The weighted contract position decreased by 2096 lots to 510223 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - permeable silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the basis was 135 yuan/ton; the 421 price was 9600 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 165 yuan/ton [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract (PS2511) was 53490 yuan/ton, down 0.34% (- 180). The weighted contract position decreased by 4424 lots to 289544 lots. The average prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were 49.5 yuan/kg, 51.05 yuan/kg, and 52.55 yuan/kg respectively, with a basis of - 940 yuan/ton [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: On Wednesday at 15:00, the main glass contract closed at 1234 yuan/ton, down 0.24% (- 3). The prices in North China and Central China were 1150 yuan and 1130 yuan respectively. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 146.7 million cases (- 2.33%). The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 12356 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 26149 lots [18]. - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday at 15:00, the main soda ash contract closed at 1334 yuan/ton, down 0.37% (- 5). The price in Shahe was 1239 yuan, down 5 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 2.46 million tons (- 2.33%), with the heavy - soda inventory decreasing by 3.74 million tons and the light - soda inventory increasing by 1.28 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders decreased their positions by 7884 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 13693 lots [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the prices of finished steel products are showing a weak trend. Although it's the traditional peak season, the demand for rebar remains weak, while the demand for hot-rolled coils still has some resilience. If the demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may continue to decline. The raw material end is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the possible disturbances caused by safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions [4]. - The price of iron ore is expected to continue its oscillatory trend. The short - term demand for iron ore is still supported, but the profit rate of steel mills is declining. It is necessary to observe the recovery of downstream demand and the speed of inventory reduction [7]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the trend of the black - sector market, with relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [12]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the short term. If the market continues to discuss furnace - type elimination and other related topics, the price may rise further; otherwise, the weak fundamentals will limit the price increase. The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policy narratives, and attention should be paid to capacity integration policies and downstream price - passing progress [16][17]. - The price of glass has limited room for adjustment, and the market still has expectations for policy support. The price of soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term and may gradually increase in the medium - to - long term, but the improvement of downstream demand is slow, which will limit its upward space [19][20]. - Although the black - sector prices may experience short - term corrective risks due to the current real - demand situation, in the face of the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary easing and the opening of China's policy space, the black - sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long - positions, and the key node may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Prices**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3127 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton (1.131%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3364 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.899%) from the previous trading day [3]. - **Market Conditions**: The export volume of steel has slightly rebounded but remains in a weak and oscillatory pattern. The apparent demand for rebar continues to be sluggish, with increasing inventory pressure. The output of hot - rolled coils has rebounded, with relatively good apparent demand and a slight reduction in inventory. The trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils are diverging [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Prices**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 799.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.50% (+4.00). The weighted holding volume was 85.84 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 794 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.95 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.32% [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Overseas iron ore shipments have significantly declined, and the near - end arrival volume has slightly decreased. The daily average pig - iron output has increased, and the short - term demand for iron ore is still supported. The profit rate of steel mills continues to decline, and both port and steel - mill imported ore inventories have slightly increased [7]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Prices**: On September 12, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.10% at 5832 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed down 0.32% at 5608 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Market Conditions**: The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. The supply - and - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions or drivers. Both are likely to follow the black - sector market [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Prices**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 8745 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.06% (+5). The weighted contract holding volume decreased by 11051 hands to 487604 hands [14]. - **Market Conditions**: The production capacity of industrial silicon is in surplus, with high inventory and insufficient effective demand. Although the production of downstream polysilicon and silicone DMC has increased, the overall inventory is still at a high level [15][16]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Prices**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 53610 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.19% (-100). The weighted contract holding volume decreased by 2557 hands to 301669 hands [16]. - **Market Conditions**: The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policy narratives. The overall inventory reduction space in the industry is limited, and the price is prone to fluctuations with changes in market sentiment [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Prices**: The spot price in Shahe was 1150 yuan, up 3 yuan from the previous day, and the spot price in Central China was 1110 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of national float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 146.7 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 2.33% month - on - month and 14.94% year - on - year [19]. - **Market Conditions**: The glass production has increased, but the inventory pressure has decreased. The downstream real - estate demand data has not improved significantly, but the market still has expectations for policy support [19]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Prices**: The spot price was 1197 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda - ash manufacturers decreased by 2.56 million tons, a decrease of 1.40% [20]. - **Market Conditions**: The downstream float - glass operating rate has increased, and the photovoltaic - glass operating rate has changed little. The soda - ash production is stable, and the inventory pressure has weakened. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term and may gradually increase in the medium - to - long term [20].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may not be able to maintain the current level, and the futures prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic [3]. - For iron ore, although the current supply - side pressure is not significant, attention should be paid to the subsequent shipping progress. If the terminal demand continues to weaken, the short - term iron ore price may be slightly adjusted [6]. - For ferrosilicon and manganese silicon, in the short - term disordered market environment affected by emotions, it is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively. Hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations [8]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to run weakly with fluctuations, and for polysilicon, it is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [14][16]. - For glass and soda ash, they are expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the long term, glass prices follow macro - emotions, and soda ash prices are affected by supply - side and market sentiment under the "anti - involution" logic [18][19]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3132 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.191%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3402 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (- 0.40%) from the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar demand decreased significantly this week, inventory accumulation speed increased. Hot - rolled coil demand rebounded significantly, and inventory accumulation speed slowed down. Both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are in a marginal upward state, with high production and insufficient demand [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (I2601) closed at 769.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.26% (- 2.00), and the position changed to 44.04 million hands [5]. - **Supply - Demand**: Overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals increased. The daily average pig iron output increased. Port inventories increased slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventories increased significantly. The apparent demand for five major steel products continued to weaken [6]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Prices**: On August 20, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed down 1.32% at 5836 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon main contract (SF511) closed down 0.99% at 5622 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Environment**: Affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment, the prices of related commodities, including ferrosilicon and manganese silicon, have dropped significantly. It is expected that the price will eventually return to the fundamentals after the sentiment fades [8]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (SI2511) closed at 8390 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.72% (- 235). The weighted contract position changed to 5.26445 million hands [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand remain. The operating rate is expected to rise in August, and the demand side can provide some support, but the price is expected to run weakly with fluctuations [14]. - **Polysilicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (PS2511) closed at 51875 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.74% (- 385). The weighted contract position changed to 3.37155 million hands [15]. - **Fundamentals**: The weekly output increased, and the inventory clearance speed was limited. The supply - demand situation is still weak. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Prices and Inventory**: On Wednesday, the spot price in Shahe was 1156 yuan, down 4 yuan from the previous day, and in Central China was 1060 yuan, down 30 yuan. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 2.55% [18]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, it follows macro - emotions, and the price may rise if there are substantial real - estate policies [18]. - **Soda Ash** - **Prices and Inventory**: The spot price was 1205 yuan, down 25 yuan from the previous day. As of August 18, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8973 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.18% [19]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the price center may gradually rise under the "anti - involution" logic, but the upward space is limited due to the supply - demand contradiction [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday's rebar apparent demand data fell short of expectations, and combined with coking coal position limits, the black sector continued its weakening trend. Although some coal mines are resuming production, supply may still contract due to ongoing inspections. There is a strong expectation of production restrictions before major events, which provides strong support for prices. Steel downstream inventory pressure is emerging, and the performance in the next few weeks needs attention. If there are macro - level positives before the inventory contradiction intensifies, there is a chance of resonance. In the near term, prices are expected to oscillate within the current range with limited downside [2]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports dropped to last year's level. Supply is relatively stable with no obvious increase [2]. - Demand: The profitability rate of steel enterprises decreased slightly but is still at a high level year - on - year. Pig iron production increased slightly, and it is less likely for steel enterprises to cut production in the short term due to profit reasons. Attention should be paid to the production restriction policy in the second half of the month [2]. - Inventory: Iron ore ports are accumulating inventory, the number of stranded ships is decreasing, steel enterprises are slightly replenishing inventory, and the total inventory is slightly increasing. The fundamental bearish driving force is limited, and the future price is expected to oscillate [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - Supply: In the main production areas, some coal mines have reduced production due to factors such as changing working faces and over - production inspections. Although some previously shut - down coal mines are gradually resuming production, short - term supply disruptions will continue. On the import side, the adjustment of the error threshold for the actual weight and declared weight of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port has led to a decline in the number of customs - cleared vehicles to around a thousand, and the decline in the mining capacity of the TT mining area has restricted coking coal transportation. Short - term Mongolian coal imports may be restricted [3]. - Demand: Coke production is temporarily stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Coal mines had many pre - sold orders before and have no obvious inventory pressure. After the exchange's position limit, market sentiment has declined, but the short - term futures market still has support under a healthy fundamental situation [3]. 3.3 Alloys - Manganese Alloy: The ex - works price of manganese ore has increased, the start - up rate of manganese - silicon manufacturers has rebounded, and there is support on the demand side for manganese ore. With the current acceptable port inventory pressure, the quotation center of manganese ore is gradually rising. In an environment of industry profit recovery, the resumption of production by manufacturers is continuing, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese - silicon may gradually become looser. Attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy related to specific production restriction requirements [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. However, in the future, the market supply - demand gap will tend to be filled, and there are still hidden concerns in the medium - to - long - term fundamentals. The upside price space is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs [3]. 3.4 Glass - Supply: There is still one production line waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory is slightly increasing, and the internal contradiction is not prominent, but there are many market sentiment disturbances [4]. - Demand: After the decline in the glass futures market, the sentiment in the spot market has declined, the mid - stream has increased shipments, and the upstream production and sales have declined significantly. Recently, the increase in coal prices has strengthened cost support, but the fundamentals are still weak. It is expected that the short - term futures and spot prices will oscillate widely [4]. 3.5 Soda Ash - Supply: The over - supply pattern has not changed, production is at a high level, and supply pressure still exists. Although there is no short - term production disturbance, production is expected to continue to increase [17]. - Demand: Heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid demand procurement. The daily melting volume of float glass is expected to be stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is expected to bottom out. The demand for heavy soda ash is flat. The downstream procurement of light soda ash is flat, but the overall downstream inventory replenishment sentiment is weak, and there is resistance to high prices. The sentiment affects the futures market, and the large month - to - month spread alleviates some delivery pressure, but the downstream's willingness to receive goods is weak. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [17]. 3.6 Specific Product Analyses 3.6.1 Steel - Core Logic: Speculative sentiment is poor, some futures - spot traders are selling, and terminal buyers are more cautious. Steel mill production is a mix of resumption and maintenance, and the output of rebar and hot - rolled coils has not changed much. Rebar inventory has increased significantly, and demand has continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil export orders have improved, and domestic demand has resilience, with inventory accumulation slowing down. The inventories of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled coils have increased, and the apparent demand of the five major steel products has declined, continuing the off - season characteristics [9]. - Outlook: The sentiment in the coking coal market has cooled, and the futures market has declined from its high. Currently, the steel fundamentals continue to weaken, but there may be disturbances in supply - demand and cost before the military parade. It is expected that the short - term futures market will oscillate widely. Attention should be paid to steel mill production restriction and terminal demand [9]. 3.6.2 Iron Ore - Core Logic: Port trading volume was 130.2 (+46) million tons. The price of the swap main contract was 102.64 (-0.87) US dollars per ton. Spot market prices fell by 7 - 15 yuan per ton, and port trading volume increased significantly. Supply is relatively stable, and demand is strong. Pig iron production increased, and inventory increased slightly [9]. - Outlook: Iron ore demand is at a high level, supply and inventory are stable, and the fundamental bearish driving force is limited. Future prices are expected to oscillate [10]. 3.6.3 Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The supply of scrap steel increased slightly week - on - week. The demand from electric furnaces increased to a new high this year, and the demand from blast furnaces also increased slightly. The factory inventory decreased slightly, and the available inventory days dropped to a relatively low level [11]. - Outlook: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both increasing, and the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. 3.6.4 Coke - Core Logic: The futures market sentiment has cooled, and the spot price has declined. After the sixth round of price increases was fully implemented, coke enterprise profits turned positive, and production increased slightly. Downstream steel mills are profitable and actively producing, and the demand for coke is strong. Although there is a large amount of inventory in the mid - stream, the supply - demand structure is still tight [13]. - Outlook: As the military parade approaches, there are continuous rumors of coke production restrictions. The supply - demand of coke will remain tight in the short term, and the futures market still has support. Attention should be paid to the possible impact of production restriction policies on coking and steel mills [13]. 3.6.5 Coking Coal - Core Logic: The futures market sentiment has declined after the exchange's position limit. Some coal mines have reduced production due to various reasons, and short - term supply disturbances will continue. Mongolian coal imports may be restricted. The demand for coking coal is strong, and coal mines have no obvious inventory pressure [14]. - Outlook: Due to the impact of over - production inspections, coking coal supply is expected to recover slowly. Although the sentiment has declined after the position limit, the short - term futures market still has support under a healthy fundamental situation [14]. 3.6.6 Manganese - Silicon - Core Logic: The manganese - silicon futures price followed the sector down after the significant decline in the coal - coke futures price. The spot price remained firm. The cost of manganese ore is rising, and the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser as manufacturers resume production. Attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy [17]. - Outlook: The current market inventory pressure is limited, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. However, the medium - to - long - term upside price space is limited [18]. 3.6.7 Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: After the market sentiment cooled and the coal - coke futures price dropped significantly, the ferrosilicon futures market weakened. The spot market is short of supply, and prices are firm. The supply is expected to increase as manufacturers resume production, and the demand is relatively stable. Attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy [19]. - Outlook: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. However, the medium - to - long - term fundamentals have hidden concerns, and the upside price space is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the coal market and electricity costs [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6]. Report's Core View - Yesterday, the news of coal mine production restrictions fermented again, driving up the futures prices. The fundamentals of the black industry have not changed significantly, and the inventory pressure at each link is not high. Before the important event, the production restriction time is approaching, and steel prices have strong support. Coal and coke supplies have not fully recovered, and inventories are being depleted, making prices susceptible to positive news. There may also be continuous influence from macro - positive news. Before the spot pressure appears, prices have room for further rebound. The futures prices have high volatility, and capital behavior dominates the market. It is recommended to wait and avoid risks, and focus on policy implementation and terminal demand [1][2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased as expected. The profitability rate of steel enterprises increased again, but steel production in some areas decreased due to rainfall, though it remained high year - on - year. Due to low arrivals and high demand, iron ore inventories at 45 ports, in port congestion, and at factories decreased. After the macro - sentiment cooled, iron ore prices dropped slightly, and it is expected to oscillate in the future [2]. Carbon Element - The overall supply is temporarily stable. The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week exceeded 1,200 vehicles, reaching a high for the year, and imports remained high. Coke production is stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Affected by the recent decline in futures prices, the wait - and - see sentiment of downstream and traders increased, and the spot market sentiment cooled. However, upstream coal mines still have many pre - sold orders and are reducing inventories. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal mine复产, and Mongolian coal imports [2]. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Coke prices have been continuously increasing, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. The manganese ore market has more wait - and - see sentiment, but traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, and port ore prices remain firm. Steel mills have good profits, and the output of finished steel remains high, so the downstream demand for manganese silicon is still resilient. However, as manufacturers' profitability improves, the复产 process continues, and the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser. Currently, the contradictions in the spot fundamentals are limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The output of silicon iron is expected to increase rapidly. The downstream steel - making demand is still resilient, and the current supply - demand relationship is healthy. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, following the performance of the sector [3]. Glass - In the off - season, glass demand declined, deep - processing orders decreased month - on - month, and the inventory days of original glass increased month - on - month, indicating speculative purchases by downstream. After the futures prices dropped, the spot market sentiment cooled, middle - stream sales increased, and upstream production and sales declined significantly. On the supply side, two production lines are yet to produce glass, and one line has been cold - repaired, with the overall daily melting expected to remain stable. Upstream inventories have decreased slightly, and there are no prominent contradictions, but market sentiment fluctuates a lot. Recently, the "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled, but it may recur. It is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term both in futures and spot [3][6]. Soda Ash - The oversupply situation of soda ash has not changed. After this round of negative feedback was triggered, prices dropped rapidly in the short term and are at a discount to the spot. It is expected to oscillate in the future. In the long run, the price center will decline, promoting capacity reduction [6]. Specific Products - **Steel**: The "anti - involution" sentiment in the steel and coal industries remains high. Driven by cost, the futures prices are firm. Spot steel sales are average. Last week, some steel mills had short - term maintenance and iron - water transfer, resulting in a decrease in rebar production and an increase in hot - rolled coil production. In the off - season, affected by typhoons, the apparent demand for rebar decreased, and inventories increased slightly; the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased, and inventories continued to accumulate. The supply - demand of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products fluctuated little, and the inventory of the five major steel products increased. Currently, steel inventories are low, and there are continuous production - restriction news before the parade. The fundamentals may improve, and with strong cost support, the futures prices are likely to rise. Attention should be paid to steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Port trading volume increased. From a fundamental perspective, overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, but the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly after the typhoon. The small - sample steel enterprise's iron - water production decreased slightly, and the daily consumption of imported sinter increased, remaining high year - on - year. The possibility of short - term production reduction due to profit reasons is small. Iron ore inventories at 45 ports increased compared to last week. The demand for iron ore is high, and there is an expectation of inventory depletion. The fundamental negative driving factors are limited, and prices are expected to oscillate [8][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The average price of crushed scrap in East China increased slightly. The output of rebar decreased slightly, inventories increased, and the apparent demand decreased, in line with off - season characteristics. In terms of supply, the market sentiment is optimistic this week, and the arrival volume of scrap steel has been decreasing. In terms of demand, the daily consumption of electric furnaces was high in some areas due to high profits in the early stage. Although the iron - water production of blast furnaces decreased, the price difference between iron and scrap narrowed, increasing the cost - effectiveness of scrap steel, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production increased significantly. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long and short - process production increased significantly. This week, the arrival volume increased significantly, and factory inventories increased slightly, with the available inventory days remaining slightly below normal. The supply and demand of scrap steel are both strong, and the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. Prices are expected to follow the finished steel [9]. - **Coke**: Futures prices followed coking coal and oscillated strongly. On the spot side, the price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port increased. After the fifth round of price increases was fully implemented, the profitability of coke enterprises improved, and production started to pick up, with coke production remaining stable. Downstream steel mills have good profits and are actively producing, and the iron - water production remains high. Upstream coke enterprises have smooth sales, and inventories are continuously decreasing. Middle - stream futures and spot traders are gradually releasing supplies, and the arrival of coke at downstream steel mills has improved. Currently, the supply - demand structure of coke is still tight, and prices still have short - term support. The fundamentals of coke are healthy. In the short term, with high iron - water production, its own driving force is weak, and prices are expected to follow coking coal and oscillate [10][11]. - **Coking Coal**: On the futures side, due to continuous news of over - production inspections at coal mines, the supply recovery is slow, and market sentiment has been boosted, with prices trending strongly. On the spot side, prices remained stable. On the supply side, the output of some coal mines is limited due to underground factors, and some coal mines have reduced their production in the second half of the year due to over - production inspections. The overall supply is slowly recovering. On the import side, the import of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port remains above 1,000 vehicles. On the demand side, coke production is stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. After the previous round of concentrated purchases, downstream enterprises are now purchasing on - demand. Upstream coal mines still have many pre - sold orders and are reducing inventories. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal mine复产, and Mongolian coal imports. Affected by over - production inspections, the supply recovery of coking coal is expected to be slow. With poor supply expectations, market sentiment has improved, and prices are expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall in the short term [11]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Driven by the strong coking coal futures prices, the central price of manganese silicon futures increased yesterday. On the spot side, manufacturers are more willing to hold prices, and spot prices have been continuously adjusted upwards. On the cost side, coke prices have been continuously increasing, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. The futures prices of manganese silicon are rising, and the overseas quotes are increasing, making manganese ore quotes firmer. In terms of supply and demand, steel mills have good profits, and the output of finished steel remains high. Hebei Iron and Steel's procurement volume in August increased compared to last month. However, as the industry's profitability improves, the manufacturers'复产 process continues, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" policy related to specific production - restriction requirements. Currently, the market fundamentals have limited contradictions, and in the short term, manganese silicon prices are expected to follow the sector. However, in the long - term, the difficulty of market inventory depletion will increase, and the upside potential of prices is not optimistic [14]. - **Silicon Iron**: Yesterday, the coking coal futures prices continued to be strong, and the market's expectation of the "anti - involution" policy increased, driving up the silicon iron futures prices. On the spot side, the prices of semi - coke and settlement electricity prices have increased significantly, and with the strong futures prices, spot prices have also increased. On the supply side, as the industry's profitability improves, manufacturers' enthusiasm for复产 increases, and the output of silicon iron is expected to increase rapidly. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" policy related to specific production - restriction requirements. On the demand side, steel output remains at a relatively high level, and the downstream steel - making demand is still resilient. Hebei Iron and Steel's procurement volume in August increased compared to last month. In the magnesium market, due to tight supplies, magnesium manufacturers are reluctant to lower prices, but the market trading atmosphere has cooled, and the game between upstream and downstream continues. Currently, the supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is healthy, and in the short term, prices are expected to follow the sector. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand gap may be filled, and the upside potential of prices should be viewed with caution. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs [15].