Group 1 - The Penghua CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme ETF (159162) will be launched for subscription from January 15, 2026, to January 23, 2026, with a maximum initial fundraising scale of 5 billion yuan [1] - The fund will be managed by Penghua Fund, with Yan Dong serving as the fund manager [1] - The performance benchmark for the fund is the return rate of the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index [1]

消息面上，据中铝国际官微消息，近日，中铝国际沈阳院印尼北加电解铝项目出铝投产仪式在印尼北加 里曼丹工业区隆重举行。该项目是北加里曼丹国家级绿色工业区首个成功开发并顺利投产的项目，规划 年产电解铝100万吨，配套建设阳极厂、煤气站、自备电厂、码头及永久生活区。作为近年来全球范围 内一次性建设规模最大、建设内容最全、投资最大的电解铝项目，其投产对印尼及东南亚铝工业发展具 有重要意义。 智通财经APP获悉，中铝国际(02068)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.08%，报2.68港元，成交额1318.33万港 元。 ...

三立期货研报显示，最近刚果(金)政府发布公告，内部武装冲突持续加剧，而刚果金又是锡矿的重要产区， 2025年3月就曾因武装冲突导致锡矿停产，这几天武装冲突还在持续，市场对于锡矿的担忧也日益增加。不仅 仅是供给端有担忧，在AI服务器等行业带动下，锡的需求端也在持续增长，再加上美联储宽松预期、整体金属 板块偏强，锡三天有两天都在涨停。更根本的原因，在于锡矿本身储量较少，锡大规模工业应用也没有几年， 可以说处在长期的短缺当中，一但发生什么突发情况锡价波动都是最强烈的品种之一。目前锡价已经突破历史 区间，短期维持震荡偏强趋势。 本周以来，受宏观情绪及外盘带动，沪锡期货市场迎来了一场史诗级的爆发。1月15日，沪锡期货主力2602合 约价格突破44万元/吨关口，一度触及涨停，随后涨幅有所收窄，现报428480.00元/吨，涨幅逾7%。 消息面上，据当地媒体援引矿业官员消息称，印度尼西亚可能批准2026年约2.6亿吨的镍矿生产配额。印尼锡 出口商协会表示2026年生产配额审批工作目前正在进行中，预估2026年锡生产配额约为60000吨。 此外，印尼锡出口商协会指出，2026年生产配额审批工作目前正在进行中，预估2026年锡 ...

Group 1: Energy and Metals Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices' short - term upward space is limited due to supply surplus and geopolitical uncertainties [1]. - Precious metals remain strong under the influence of high US economic data and the tense Iran situation [2]. - Base metals show various trends affected by factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand fundamentals, and market sentiment [3][4][5]. Summary by Category - **Crude Oil**: EIA data shows a large increase in US commercial crude inventories. Geopolitical factors cause price fluctuations, and supply surplus restricts price increases [1]. - **Precious Metals**: High US economic data and the tense Iran situation support the strength of precious metals [2]. - **Copper**: The market focuses on geopolitical risks and the 105,000 - level of Shanghai copper's volume and position [3]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum is at a high level, with a divergence between the market and fundamentals. High - profit aluminum plants can consider selling hedging [4]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows Shanghai aluminum, with low market activity and cost - increasing pressure in some areas [5]. - **Alumina**: The domestic alumina market is in surplus, with falling costs and a bearish outlook on the spot [6]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market has high capital inflow, but high prices have a negative impact on consumption, and the price may回调 [7]. - **Lead**: Shanghai lead is affected by factors such as inventory pressure, production changes, and cost increases, with a price range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel market is active, with price rebounds in the upstream. Stainless steel has increased production expectations, and short - term trading is policy - and sentiment - driven [9]. - **Tin**: Shanghai tin is rising rapidly, mainly driven by domestic trading and sentiment. High prices suppress demand, and supply is stable [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is active, with changes in the sales strategy of upstream lithium salt plants. The total inventory increases, and the price is strong but uncertain [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The market has weak supply and demand, with a stalemate in spot prices and a volatile futures market [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is in a range - bound state, with a downward - adjusted production forecast and a shift in the trading logic [13]. Group 2: Ferrous Metals and Building Materials Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The ferrous metals and building materials markets are affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, seasonal factors, and policy expectations, showing different trends [14][15][16]. Summary by Category - **Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The steel market is in a range - bound state, with weak domestic demand and high exports. The market is cautious, and the price may fluctuate in a range [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile, with a risk of high - level fluctuations [15]. - **Coke**: The price is in a range - bound state, with a slight increase in production and unchanged inventory. The market expects a strong - side fluctuation [16]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is in a range - bound state, with an increase in total inventory. The market expects a strong - side fluctuation [17]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The price rebounds, with an increase in manganese ore prices and a decrease in silicon manganese production and inventory. It is recommended to buy on dips [18]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is relatively strong, with a decrease in supply and inventory. It is recommended to buy on dips [19]. Group 3: Shipping and Energy - Related Products Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The shipping and energy - related product markets are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes, showing complex trends [20][21][22]. Summary by Category - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Airlines are reducing prices to compete for cargo, and the "rush - shipping" effect is uncertain. The 04 - contract valuation is driven by market sentiment [20]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil market may be supported by feed demand in the future, while the low - sulfur fuel oil market has a weak supply - demand situation [21]. - **Asphalt**: The impact of the Iran situation on asphalt is limited, and the upward driving force is weak after the price has factored in the supply reduction expectation [22]. Group 4: Chemical Products Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The chemical product markets are affected by factors such as raw material prices, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy changes, showing different trends [23][24][25]. Summary by Category - **Urea**: The price is rising strongly, with good factory sales and increasing demand. The market is expected to be strong - side volatile [23]. - **Methanol**: The futures price is strong due to geopolitical conflicts, but the demand is weakening, and the port de - stocking speed may slow down [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price is rising, with sufficient supply and high port inventory. The medium - and long - term de - stocking is difficult [25]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, with a decrease in port inventory and good export markets [26]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The price is supported by factors such as rising oil prices, supply reduction, and stable demand [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC may have a chance for month - spread arbitrage in the short term and is expected to reduce capacity in the long term. Caustic soda is in a weak state, and the integrated profit may be compressed [28]. - **PX and PTA**: The price is in a range - bound state, with weak short - term upward driving force for PX and the main driving force for PTA coming from raw materials [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas, and the demand is weak. The price may be volatile in the short term and is under long - term pressure [30]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Grade Resin**: Short - fiber demand is weakening, and bottle - grade resin has a strong price. The absolute prices follow raw materials [31]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural product markets are affected by factors such as weather conditions, supply - demand relationships, and policy expectations, showing different trends [32][33][34]. Summary by Category - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: US soybeans are in a weak - side fluctuation, and domestic soybean imports are at a record high. The price of soybean meal may follow the weak trend of US soybeans [35]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The price of RIN in the US is rising, which is beneficial to soybean oil. Palm oil is affected by policies in Indonesia. The overall market is expected to be range - bound [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed price is under pressure due to the US agricultural report and the expectation of China - Canada relations. It may rebound if the relations do not improve [37]. - **Domestic Soybeans**: The price is in a callback, with tight supply at the grassroots level and cautious demand [38]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures are in a wide - range oscillation, affected by factors such as policy - grain release and inventory [39]. - **Hogs**: The futures price is rising, but the spot price is stable. The pig price may have a low point in the first half of next year [40]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is strong, and the futures price is weak. The egg price is expected to rise in the first half of 2026, and a long - near and short - far strategy is recommended [41]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton report is positive, and the Zhengzhou cotton is in a high - level oscillation. The demand is stable in the off - season, and the price may be adjusted [42]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market has different production progress in India and Thailand. The domestic sugar price may have limited rebound due to the expected increase in production [43]. - **Apples**: The futures price is rising, and the spot market has increased cold - storage sales. The high price and poor quality may affect the de - stocking speed [44]. - **Timber**: The price is at a low level, with a decrease in supply and demand. The low inventory provides some support [45]. - **Pulp**: The futures price is stable, with weak downstream demand and high inventory. The price increase is limited [46]. Group 6: Financial Products Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The financial product markets are affected by factors such as regulatory policies, market sentiment, and economic data, showing different trends [47][48]. Summary by Category - **Stock Index**: A - shares are in a high - level oscillation, and the increase in the margin ratio for margin trading cools down the sentiment. The equity market in the Greater China region is expected to be strong - side volatile [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures price shows a differentiated trend, and the strategy of flattening the yield curve is recommended. Policy announcements may affect the market sentiment [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US economy remains in a stage of decent growth, controllable inflation, and lingering political risks. Retail sales in November increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and inflation shows an "external hot, internal stable" pattern. Metal prices are rising rapidly, while the US stock market turns defensive and the US dollar index slightly declines. Oil prices continue to rebound [2]. - Domestically, exports and imports in December 2025 both exceeded expectations, showing a recovery in foreign demand and domestic imports. The property - related tax - refund policy is extended, and regulations are strengthened in the new energy vehicle industry. The A - share market receives regulatory cooling signals after reaching a new high, and the short - term upward slope may be adjusted [3]. - Precious metals continue to be strong due to factors such as the US inflation data boosting expectations of Fed rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and the potential shortage of physical supply. The silver price is expected to remain strong in the short term [4][5]. - The copper price shows a strong and volatile trend. Strong economic fundamentals in China and the US provide demand support, and the supply of concentrates is growing slowly. It is expected to maintain a high - level and strong oscillation in the short term [6][7]. - The aluminum price fluctuates at a high level. Although the macro - environment is stable, high prices suppress downstream consumption, and the inventory is increasing. It is expected to continue the high - level oscillation [8][9]. - The zinc price fluctuates strongly. The high copper - zinc and zinc - aluminum price ratios support the zinc price, but the downstream consumption is weak. It is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend with increased volatility [10]. - The lead price's rebound space is limited. Although the LME lead inventory is decreasing, the consumption pressure increases due to the anti - dumping tariff on lead - acid batteries, and the social inventory is rising. It is expected to fluctuate widely [11]. - The tin price hits a new high, but there is a risk of adjustment at the high level. Although the current supply disruption is limited, the supply of tin ore remains tight. However, the risk accumulates as the price rises continuously, and there may be a callback pressure [12][13]. - The steel price fluctuates. The fundamental driving force is limited, and it is expected to oscillate mainly. The impact of inventory accumulation on the steel price should be noted [14]. - The iron ore price is under pressure to oscillate. The supply is strong while the demand is weak, with high port inventories and general replenishment by steel mills [15]. - The coking coal and coke prices oscillate. The cost of coking enterprises is rising, the supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to continue the oscillating pattern [16][17]. - The soybean and rapeseed meal prices oscillate. China's soybean procurement is approaching the target, and the Brazilian harvest will increase supply. The short - term trend depends on the pre - holiday stocking demand [18]. - The palm oil price oscillates. Indonesia cancels the B50 policy, which eases the supply - tightness expectation, but the improving export demand provides support [19][20]. 3. Summary of Each Section Macro - Overseas: The US is in a stage of decent growth, controllable inflation, and lingering political risks. In November, retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, driven by automobile and holiday - related consumption. PPI rose to 3% year - on - year, mainly due to energy prices, while core PPI was flat month - on - month. Metal prices rose rapidly, the US stock market turned defensive, the US dollar index declined slightly, and oil prices rebounded [2]. - Domestic: In December 2025, exports increased by 6.6% and imports by 5.7% year - on - year, both exceeding expectations. The property - related tax - refund policy is extended to 2027, and regulations are strengthened in the new energy vehicle industry. The A - share market received regulatory cooling signals after reaching a new high, and the short - term upward slope may be adjusted [3]. Precious Metals - The price of precious metals continued to be strong on Wednesday, with gold and silver hitting new highs for three consecutive days. The US CPI data in December boosted expectations of Fed rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions and potential supply shortages pushed up the prices. The silver price is expected to remain strong in the short term due to factors such as forced short - covering [4][5]. Copper - On Wednesday, the Shanghai copper futures fluctuated at a high level, and the LME copper price stabilized above $13,000. The spot market trading improved, and downstream enterprises replenished stocks on a small scale. The US economic activity is expanding moderately, and the strong economic fundamentals in China and the US provide demand support. The supply of concentrates is growing slowly. It is expected to maintain a high - level and strong oscillation in the short term [6][7]. Aluminum - On Wednesday, the Shanghai aluminum futures closed at 24,665 yuan/ton, down 0.32%, and the LME aluminum price closed at $3,189.5/ton, down 0.2%. The spot price increased, and the inventory rose. The macro - environment is stable, but high prices suppress downstream consumption. It is expected to continue the high - level oscillation [8][9]. Zinc - On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc futures fluctuated within a narrow range during the day and strongly at night, and the LME zinc price rose. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is low, and the spot premium continues to decline. The high copper - zinc and zinc - aluminum price ratios support the zinc price, but the downstream consumption is weak. It is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend with increased volatility [10]. Lead - On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead futures fluctuated within a narrow range during the day and rose at night, and the LME lead price rose. The consumption pressure increases due to the anti - dumping tariff on lead - acid batteries, and the social inventory is rising. Although the LME lead inventory is decreasing, the lead price's rebound space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate widely [11]. Tin - On Wednesday, the Shanghai tin futures hit the daily limit for the second time this week and continued to be strong at night, breaking through 440,000 yuan/ton. The LME tin price rose by 9.88%. Although the current supply disruption is limited, the supply of tin ore remains tight. However, the risk accumulates as the price rises continuously, and there may be a callback pressure [12][13]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Wednesday, the steel futures fluctuated. The spot market trading volume was 88,000 tons. The cost of electric arc furnace steel mills increased slightly, and the profit was in a loss state. The fundamental driving force is limited, and it is expected to oscillate mainly. The impact of inventory accumulation on the steel price should be noted [14]. Iron Ore - On Wednesday, the iron ore futures fluctuated and slightly adjusted. The spot market trading volume was 1.23 million tons. The cost of steel mills decreased slightly, and the loss was gradually reduced. The supply is strong while the demand is weak, with high port inventories and general replenishment by steel mills. It is expected to be under pressure to oscillate [15]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - On Wednesday, the coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The price of coking coal increased, and the price of coke decreased. The production capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants increased, and the inventory of refined coal rose. The cost of coking enterprises is rising, the supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to continue the oscillating pattern [16][17]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Wednesday, the soybean meal 05 contract fell 0.9%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract fell 1.46%. A US exporter reported selling 334,000 tons of soybeans to China. The Brazilian harvest is underway, and the supply will increase. The short - term trend depends on the pre - holiday stocking demand [18]. Palm Oil - On Wednesday, the palm oil 05 contract fell 0.55%. Indonesia cancels the B50 policy and will maintain the B40 policy, which eases the supply - tightness expectation. However, the improving export demand provides support. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [19][20]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.1% and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.55%, with the non-ferrous metals sector showing strength, particularly China Silver Group which rose over 2%, while Xpeng Motors dropped over 2% and Trip.com fell nearly 15% [1] - Dongwu Securities suggests that the window for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year is limited, and the impact of fiscal stimulus on the economy is still forthcoming. If the Fed does not cut rates in Q1, the rebound of Hong Kong stocks will depend more on fundamental factors. The overall strategy for Hong Kong stocks remains a barbell approach, recommending a controlled allocation while waiting for more news [1] - According to China Merchants Securities, the lagging performance of Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares is due to overseas liquidity dynamics. The US unemployment rate has dropped to 4.4%, supporting a 95.6% probability of the Fed pausing rate cuts in January. The stabilization of the Shanghai Composite Index above 4,000 points limits the downside for Hong Kong stocks. Despite lacking hot topics like commercial aerospace and military sectors, a recovery in sentiment may drive southbound capital to boost the tech sector [1] Group 2 - Industrial Securities prioritizes recommending leading internet companies in China's AI sector, expecting a resonance of buying from both domestic and foreign investors. They also suggest focusing on dividend assets in a low-interest-rate environment, including opportunities in insurance, banking, energy, property management, and public utilities. Additionally, they highlight new consumption trends, particularly in traditional service-oriented sectors, Gen Z consumption, and high-end consumer goods [2] - Zheshang International expresses optimism for sectors benefiting from policy support, such as new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and AI technology. They also see stable performance and stock price trends in undervalued state-owned enterprises, as well as local Hong Kong banks, telecommunications, and public utility dividend stocks benefiting from the interest rate cut cycle. The spring performance of Hong Kong stocks in 2026 is expected to be driven by "AI applications + PPI improvement + expanded domestic demand," with a focus on quality targets in these areas [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, individual commodity ratings can be inferred from the trend strength: - **Positive Outlook**: Gold, Silver, Copper, Tin, Aluminum, PX, PTA, MEG, Synthetic Rubber, Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil [2][9][19][23][62][73][124] - **Neutral Outlook**: Platinum, Palladium, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Carbonate Lithium, Industrial Silicon, Polycrystalline Silicon, Iron Ore, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Ferrosilicon, Manganese Silicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Steam Coal, Logs, Short - Fiber, Bottle Chips, Pure Benzene, Soybean Meal, Soybean, Corn, Cotton, Eggs, Peanuts [26][30][31][36][39][40][43][45][49][53][57][59][142][150][158][159][162][170][175][182] - **Negative Outlook**: Zinc, PVC, Caustic Soda, Rubber, Benzene Ethylene, Soda Ash, LPG, Propylene, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Sugar, Live Pigs [12][121][81][70][103][107][112][113][153][166][178] Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market, including their price trends, fundamental data, and market news. It suggests that investors should pay attention to factors such as supply - demand balance, cost support, and geopolitical events when making investment decisions. For example, for PX and PTA, although the supply is relatively loose, the cost - end support from oil prices may drive the prices up, but the decline in downstream demand needs to be monitored [68]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. The price is affected by factors such as the US economic data and the Fed's interest - rate policy [5]. - **Silver**: Reached a new high. The price shows a strong upward trend [5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The strengthening of LME spot premium supports the price. The global copper demand is expected to increase significantly by 2040, but the production of some major copper producers has declined [9][11]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the upper - level pressure. The price is affected by factors such as inventory changes and macro - news [12]. - **Lead**: The decrease in overseas inventory supports the price. The market is influenced by macro - economic data and industry news [16]. - **Tin**: Strong upward movement. The price has increased significantly [19]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillating strongly. Alumina is in range - bound oscillation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [23]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - Related**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East affects the oil price, which in turn impacts the prices of related chemical products such as PX, PTA, and MEG [62]. - **PTA**: The polyester production - cut plan has increased, and attention should be paid to the implementation strength. The price is influenced by cost and downstream demand [62]. - **MEG**: The downside space of valuation is limited [62]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There are doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and the POGO is expected to shrink [63]. - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillating, waiting for the progress of China - Canada trade events [65]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot price [67]. - **Sugar**: Weak operation [68]. - **Cotton**: Continuing the adjustment trend [69]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East; weak operation. The price is affected by factors such as shipping capacity, demand, and spot freight rates [126].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals, a seller's neutral volatility strategy is recommended as they tend to move upwards [2]. - For the black metals sector, which experiences significant fluctuations, a short - volatility combination strategy is suitable [2]. - For precious metals, as they rebound and rise, a bull spread combination strategy is suggested [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts. For example, the latest price of copper futures (CU2602) is 103,390, down 520 (- 0.50%) with a trading volume of 16.55 million lots and an open interest of 15.95 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume and Open Interest PCR**: It shows the volume and open - interest put - call ratios (PCR) of different metal options. For instance, the volume PCR of copper options is 0.40, with a change of - 0.05, and the open - interest PCR is 0.66, with a change of 0.02 [4]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: The pressure and support levels of option underlying assets are analyzed. The pressure point of copper is 110,000 and the support point is 98,000 [5]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility data of various metal options are given, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change, etc. The at - the - money implied volatility of copper is 33.62% [6]. 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations - **Non - ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: Directional strategy - construct a bull spread combination strategy of call options; volatility strategy - construct a short - volatility seller's option combination strategy; spot long - hedging strategy - hold a spot long position + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. - **Aluminum, Zinc, Nickel, Tin, Lithium Carbonate**: Similar strategies are provided, mainly including directional strategies (such as bull spread combination strategies for some), volatility strategies (such as short - volatility strategies or selling call + put option combination strategies), and spot hedging strategies [10][11][12]. - **Precious Metals (Silver)**: Directional strategy - construct a bull spread combination strategy of call options; volatility strategy - construct a short - volatility option seller's combination strategy with a bullish bias; spot hedging strategy - hold a spot long position + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options [13]. - **Black Metals**: - **Rebar**: Volatility strategy - construct a short - volatility selling call + put option combination strategy with a bearish bias; spot long - covered strategy - hold a spot long position + sell call options [14]. - **Iron Ore, Ferroalloys, Industrial Silicon, Glass**: Similar strategies are given, covering directional, volatility, and spot hedging strategies [14][15][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report comprehensively presents macro - economic data, commodity investment information, financial news, bond and stock market trends. It shows that in 2025, China's foreign trade reached a record high, and various industries such as metals, energy, and agriculture have different price and market changes. The financial market also experiences policy - driven and market - based adjustments [2][16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - GDP in Q3 2025 grew by 4.8% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter's 5.2% [1] - In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, slightly higher than the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2% [1] - In November 2025, social financing scale was 24,888 billion yuan, and new RMB loans were 390 billion yuan [1] - In December 2025, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - In 2025, China's foreign trade imports and exports totaled 45.47 trillion yuan, with exports growing 6.1% and imports growing 0.5% [2] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced trading rules for lithium carbonate futures LC2701 and polysilicon futures PS2701 contracts [2] - On January 14, 37 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 31 had negative basis [3] 3.2.2 Metals - On January 15, spot silver hit a record high of $93.68 per ounce. On January 14, domestic silver futures rose 8% [4] - Tungsten prices continued to rise in 2026. On January 14, black tungsten concentrate prices exceeded 500,000 yuan per ton [5] - In December 2025, China's rare earth exports increased by 32% year - on - year to 4,392 tons [5] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - In December 2025, China's steel product exports reached 11.3 million tons, and annual exports increased by 7.5% to 119 million tons [7] - In 2025, China's iron ore imports increased by 1.8% to 1.26 billion tons [8] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The US government expects more Venezuelan oil to enter the market in the coming days and weeks [9] - OPEC maintained its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast at 1.38 million barrels per day and predicted 1.34 million barrels per day for 2027 [9] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - In early January, most agricultural product prices in the circulation field rose, with live pigs hitting a new high since September 2025 [10] - In early January, soybean prices fell by 2.12% month - on - month, and cotton prices rose by 1.97% month - on - month [11] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On January 14, the central bank conducted 240.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 212.2 billion yuan [13] - On January 15, the central bank will conduct 900 billion yuan of 6 - month term repurchase operations, with an additional 300 billion yuan [13] 3.3.2 Important News - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on January 15 to introduce the effectiveness of monetary and financial policies in supporting high - quality economic development [15] - In 2025, China's foreign trade imports and exports reached a record high, and the government continued to promote fiscal and financial coordination to boost domestic demand [15][16] - The three - department deployment regulates the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry [18] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market was volatile in the morning, and bond yields mostly declined in the late session [23] - The exchange - traded bond market showed that most of the Vanke bonds were weak [24] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.15% [25] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9734 on January 14, up 31 points [28] - The US dollar index fell 0.11% in New York trading [28] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that during the new debt - resolution cycle, the transformation of urban investment platforms will shift from quantity reduction to quality improvement [29] - CICC believes that the Fed will likely keep interest rates unchanged in January and may cut rates in March [30] 3.4 Stock Market News - On January 14, the A - share market showed a pattern of rising and then falling, with a turnover approaching 4 trillion yuan [32] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.56% [32] - Regulatory authorities put forward three - pronged supervision requirements for fund dividends [33] - The single - day trading volume of domestic ETFs exceeded 700 billion yuan on Wednesday [33]

2026 年 1 月 15 日星期四 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | | | 碳酸锂： 17 | | --- | | 铜： 17 | | 铝： 18 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 19 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 20 | | 棕榈油： 21 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 22 | | 白糖： 23 | | 苹果： 24 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 25 | | 玉米&淀粉： 26 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 28 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数上涨，30 年期主力合约跌 0.04%报 111.270 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.08%报 107.930 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.04%报 105.655 元，2 年 期主力合约持平于 102.334 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，1 月 14 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 2408 亿 元 7 ...